Daily commodity market report 01 april 2014 by epic research

Page 1

DAILY COMMODITY REPORT 1st APRIL 2014

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DAILY MARKET WRAPUP 1st APRIL 2014 COMMODITY

CONTRACT

OPEN PRICE

HIGH

LOW

CLOSE PRICE

%CHANGE

OI (in lots)

GOLD

05-APR-14

28448.00

28790.00

28363.00

28449.00

0.26

2206

SILVER

05-MAY-14

42701.00

43330.00

42701.00

42891.00

-0.91

14999

CRUDEOIL

21-APR-14

6106.00

6139.00

6076.00

6139.00

-0.36

8968

NATURALGAS

25-APR-14

269.10

270.70

261.70

272.70

-3.81

7064

COPPER

30-APR-14

404.70

405.45

402.95

401.25

0.69

19629

LEAD

31-MAR-14

124.30

124.75

124.05

125.15

-0.56

2011

NICKEL

31-MAR-14

948.50

959.90

946.10

952.00

0.69

5052

ZINC

31-MAR-14

119.00

120.15

118.25

119.50

0.17

1177

ALUMINIUM

31-MAR-14

104.45

106.25

104.30

103.80

2.36

2178

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS 31-MAR- 2014)

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METAL

TONNES IN STORAGE

ALUMINIUM

-5200

COPPER

-2025

LEAD

-50

NICKEL

-768

TIN

10

ZINC

2025 Call us at +91-731-6642300


INTERNATIONAL MARKETS 1st APRIL 2014

PRECIOUS AND INDUSTRY METALS COMMODITY

UNITS

PRICE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

CONTRACT

COMEX GOLD

USD/T OZ.

1,280.60

-3.20

-0.25%

JUN 14

GOLD SPOT

USD/T OZ.

1,281.95

-2.06

-0.16%

N/A

COMEX SILVER

USD/T OZ.

19.69

-0.11

-0.53%

MAY 14

COMEX COPPER

USD/LB.

303.25

+0.70

+0.23%

MAY 14

PLATINUM SPOT

USD/T OZ.

1,416.75

-0.81

-0.06%

N/A

ENERGY COMMODITY FUTURES COMMODITY

UNITS

PRICE

CHANGE

% CHANGE

CONTRACT

CRUDE OIL (WTI)

USD/BBL.

101.37

-0.21

-0.21%

MAY 14

CRUDE OIL (BRENT)

USD/BBL.

107.70

-0.06

-0.06%

MAY 14

RBOB GASOLINE

USD/GAL.

290.95

-0.84

-0.29%

MAY 14

NYMEX NATURAL GAS

USD/MMBTU

4.36

-0.01

-0.16%

MAY 14

NYMEX HEATING OIL

USD/GAL.

292.74

-0.24

-0.08%

MAY 14

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INTRADAY SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE 1st APRIL 2014

COMMODITY

EXPIRY

SUP.3

SUP.2

SUP.1

PIVOT

RES.1

ALUMINIUM

30-Apr

103.58

104.92

105.63

106.97

107.68

COPPER

30-Apr

401.68

402.92

404.18

405.42

406.68

CRUDEOIL

21-Apr

6048

6084

6111

6147

6174

GOLD

5-Jun

27869

28007

28184

28322

28499

LEAD

30-Apr

123.70

124.05

124.40

124.75

125.10

NATURALGAS

25-Apr

255.97

259.23

264.97

268.23

273.97

NICKEL

30-Apr

941.2

950.0

955.0

963.8

968.8

SILVER

5-May

42316

42561

42945

43190

43574

ZINC

30-Apr

117.42

118.48

119.32

120.38

121.22

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MOST ACTIVE CONTRACTS 1st APRIL 2014

Symbol

Expiry Date

LTP

Value (In Lacs)

Volume (In Lots)

SILVERMICRO

30-04-2014

42837.00

2,95,46,82,075.00

68,975

CRUDE OIL

21-04-2014

6117.00

28,60,92,090.00

46,770

NATURAL GAS

25-04-2014

262.30

1,07,95,743.40

41,158

SILVER M

30-04-2014

42832.00

1,50,34,88,864.00

35,102

COPPER

30-04-2014

404.00

1,14,87,740.00

28,435

SILVER

05-05-2014

42810.00

75,66,66,750.00

17,675

COPPERMINI

30-04-2014

404.15

67,32,734.85

16,659

NICKEL

30-04-2014

958.60

1,16,92,044.20

12,197

GOLD M

04-04-2014

28440.00

34,08,24,960.00

11,984

GOLD PETAL

30-04-2014

2962.00

3,03,04,222.00

10,231

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TODAY,S COMMODITY NEWS 1st APRIL 2014

COMMODITY HEADLINES Jewellery sales on the rise as bullion price falls Gold hits six-month low on heavy selling Silver down 0.2% in futures trade Aluminium down 0.1% on global cues Copper down 0.2% on weak global cues Nickel up 0.8% on global cues, domestic demand Jeera up 0.2% on spot demand Sugar up 0.9% on strong summer season demand Refined soya oil up 0.2% on spot demand Oil prices mixed in Asia after strong US data Oil prices up in Asia on US data Crude prices rise in Asian trade India's crude oil imports up 23% on fuel demand Mentha oil up 0.2% on pick-up in demand Maharashtra to cut VAT

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COMMODITY BUZZ AND ECONOMIC EVENTS 1st APRIL 2014 SPECIAL NEWS

Euro area annual inflation is up by 0.5% in March 2014, down from 0.7% inFebruary, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office ofthe European Union. Looking at the main components of euro area inflation,services is expected to have the highest annual rate in March (1.1%, comparedwith 1.3% in February), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (1.0%, comparedwith 1.5% in February), non-energy industrial goods (0.3%, compared with 0.4% inFebruary) and energy (2.1%, compared with -23% in February). Euro area coreinflation eased to 0.80% surge in March 2014, from 1% surge last month. Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), has fallen faster than expected in the last three months, from 11.2% in November 2013 to 8.1% this February, states a Crisil report. With CPI inflation now close to the RBI's official target of 8% for January 2015, we may have come to the end of the interest rate tightening cycle. Rates however, must remain on hold for now . First, the current fall in CPI inflation is almost entirely driven by declining inflation in vegetables, YOUR MINTVISORY

COMMODITY BUZZ Import of gold in the financial year which ended on Monday is estimated to have been at a six-year low of 557 tonnes, lowest after 2007-08. This follows imposition of stiff import curbs, including very high tariffs. Abroad, gold investors lost 19.4 per cent. In India, due to a slide in the rupee’s value (10.4 per cent) and the rise in duty and high premium for physical delivery, the fall in return was only to 3.2 per cent. This month, 35 tonnes of import was expected, taking the January-March quarter total to 90 tonnes, about 80 per cent more than the September-December quarter’s. Steel Market Intelligence GmbH, China produced 20.5 million tons of crude stainless steel in 2013 as global output totaled 40 million tons even if the market demand was very low and unstable price trend. China's production in 2013 was up 17% year-on-year and was over half of the world's stainless steel. The main reasons to make China's share of global stainless output increase was because many other stainless producers struggled with over-capacity and weak prices. the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), retail turnover in February 2014 in Germany increased 2.0 % compared with the corresponding month of the previous year, Call us at +91-731-6642300


EPIC RESEARCH– ANALYST SPEAKS 1st APRIL 2014

SILVER

SILVER MCX Short term trend is DOWN, Immediate support @ 42200Immediate Resistance @ 43600 SILVER MCX Closed @42891.00 Yesterday Intraday Range of SILVER MCX was 629. Open Interest was down -0.92 %, Volumes were 16430 lots. For today Keep a close eye on US data, volatility may Rule the overall Market due to USDINR Movements. BUY SILVER(MAY) ABOVE 43200 TGTS 43450/43850 SL BELOW 42800 SELL SILVER(MAY) BELOW 42790 TGTS 42540/42140 SL 43200 YOUR MINTVISORY

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EPIC RESEARCH– ANALYST SPEAKS 1st APRIL 2014

GOLD

GOLD MCX Short term trend is down, Immediate support @ 28000 Immediate Resistance @ 28700 GOLD MCX Closed @28449.00 Yesterday Intraday Range of GOLD MCX was 427. Open Interest was down -40.95 %, Volumes were 8110 lots. For today Keep a close eye on US data, volatility may Rule the overall Market due to USDINR Movements. BUY GOLD(JUN) ABOVE 28230 TGTS 28310/28410 SL 28220 SELL GOLD(JUN) BELOW 28220 TGTS 28140/28040 SL 28330

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EPIC RESEARCH– ANALYST SPEAKS 1st APRIL 2014

GUARSEED

RESISTANCE 2

4770

RESISTANCE 1

4815

PIVOT

4750

SUPPORT 1

4670

SUPPORT 2

4615

Guarseed April short term trend looking sideways to bearish in daily chart. Momentum indicators is in mid range. In intraday basis immediate support @ 4710 & immediate resistance @ 4750. BUY GUARSEED APR ABOVE 4750 TGTS 4780,4830 SL 4710 SELL GUARSEED APR BELOW 4710 TGTS 4680,4630 SL 4760

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EPIC RESEARCH– ANALYST SPEAKS 1st APRIL 2014

DHANIYA

RESISTANCE 2

9660

RESISTANCE 1

9790

PIVOT

9510

SUPPORT 1

9270

SUPPORT 2

9010

On Technical chart Dhaniya apr is in bullish trend where dhaniya April future bounce back from nearest support level on intraday basis immediate support @ 9455 and immediate resistance @ 9555.Momentum indicators RSI and is above their mid range also support bullish trend in dhaniya. Expecting that rising in price will continue in upcoming trading session. BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 9555 TGTS 9585,9635 SL 9505 SELL DHANIYA APR BELOW 9455 TGTS 9425,9375 SL 9495

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TODAY’S ECONOMIC EVENTS 1st APRIL 2014

TUESDAY, APRIL 1 TIME

COUNTRY

EVENT

ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS

04:00

AUD

AIG MANUFACTURING INDEX

47.9

04:30

KRW

SOUTH KOREAN CPI (YOY)

1.3%

1.4%

1.0%

05:20

JPY

TANKAN LARGE MANUFACTURERS INDEX

17

18

16

05:20

JPY

TANKAN LARGE NON-MANUFACTURERS INDEX

24

24

20

06:30

CNY

CHINESE MANUFACTURING PMI

50.3

50.3

50.2

07:15

CNY

CHINESE HSBC MANUFACTURING PMI

48.0

48.1

48.1

09:00

AUD

INTEREST RATE DECISION

2.50%

2.50%

09:00

AUD

RBA RATE STATEMENT

09:30

IDR

INDONESIA CORE INFLATION (YOY)

4.58%

4.57%

12:43

EUR

SPANISH MANUFACTURING PMI

52.4

52.5

13:00

CHF

SVME PMI

56.7

57.6

13:15

EUR

ITALIAN MANUFACTURING PMI

52.1

52.3

13:20

EUR

FRENCH MANUFACTURING PMI

51.9

51.9

13:25

EUR

GERMAN MANUFACTURING PMI

53.8

53.8

13:25

EUR

GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE

-10K

-14K

13:25

EUR

GERMAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

6.8%

6.8%

13:30

EUR

MANUFACTURING PMI

53.0

53.0

14:00

GBP

MANUFACTURING PMI

56.7

56.9

14:30

EUR

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

12.0%

12.0%

18:00

CAD

RMPI (MOM)

3.0%

2.6%

19:30

USD

ISM MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT

52.8

52.3

19:30

USD

ISM MANUFACTURING PMI

54.0

53.2

YOUR MINTVISORY

48.6

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