Special report-05-dec-2018-epicx research

Page 1

Special Report

05-Dec-2018

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

Wall Street tumbled more than 3 percent on Tuesday, led lower by bank and industrial shares, as the US bond market sent unsettling signs about economic growth and investors worried anew about global trade.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 799.36 points, or 3.1 percent, to 25,027.07, the S&P 500 lost 90.31 points, or 3.24 percent, to 2,700.06 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 283.09 points, or 3.8 percent, to 7,158.43.Asian stocks fell on Wednesday, dragged by Wall Street’s tumble as sharp declines in longterm US Treasury yields and resurgent trade concerns stoked investor worries about global economic growth.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25113

+0.27

S&P500

2700

-3.24

NASDAQ

7158

-3.95

FTSE100

7022

-0.56

22036 27260

-2.44 +0.29

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

333.25

9.3

2.87

803

19.95

2.55

ONGC

146.25

3.75

2.63

UPL

749.85

17.25

2.35

684.8

14.45

2.16

CMP

Change

% Chg

442.4 740.6 845.4 1,940.40 282.6

-13 -20.45 -19.15 -40.35 -4.2

-2.85 -2.69 -2.22 -2.04 -1.46

BPCL

Global equities have been shaken as a flattening US Treasury yield curve - a result of a steep fall in longer-dated yields - fanned recession jitters and as US-China trade conflict woes resurfaced after a temporary lull.

Indiabulls Hsg

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was down 0.6 percent. Australian stocks lost 1.3 percent after Australia's third quarter growth data fell short of expectations. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.15 percent and South Korea's KOSPI shed 1 percent.

Top Losers

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF The market ended rangebound session lower on Tuesday,snapping six-day winning streak as traders remained cautious ahead of interest rate decision by Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday.The Nifty50 traded lower in a range of 57 points for major part of the session and formed small bearish candle which resembles a 'Doji' kind of pattern on the daily charts.The Nifty50 traded lower in a range of 57 points for major part of the session and formed small bearish candle which resembles a 'Doji' kind of pattern on the daily charts.A 'Doji' is formed when the index opens and then closes approximately around the same level but remain volatile throughout the day which is indicated by its long shadow on either side. It appears like a cross or a plus sign. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+0.94pts], Consumption[+0.20pts],PSE[+0.81pts],CPSE [+0.99pts],Energy[+0.18pts],FMCG[ -0.65pts],Auto[0.52pts],Pharma[+0.12pts],IT[+1.76pts],Metal [+0.27pts],Realty[-0.36 pts], Fin Serv sector[-0.05pts].

Infosys Company

Sun Pharma M&M Grasim HDFC SBI

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

33.1

1.65

4.98

FILATEX

57

1.05

1.84

ICICILIQ

999.99

0

0

1000.01

0

0

1869.4

50.6

2.71

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

ABGSHIP

2.5

0.05

2

ADHUNIK

2.6

0.1

3.85

39.05 2.5 4

-1.95 0 -0.2

-4.99 0 -5

ELECTROSL

LIQUIDETF VINDHYATEL

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

AIFL ALCHEM AMTEKAUTO

Indian Indices Company

NIFTY SENSEX

CMP

Change

% Chg

10869.5

-14.25

-0.13

36134.31

-106..69

-0.29

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. JUBILANT FOOD (FUTURE ) On Daily chart we have seen that stock close above its pivot support level . Fresh Buying we have seen in last trading session . After analysis of derivative data its indicate that traders view is to Buy the stock . Our recommendation is also Buy the stock in the range of 1320-1325 target 1335/1345 Sl 1310

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] JUBILANT FOOD On Daily chart we have seen that stock close above its pivot support level . Fresh Buying we have seen in last trading session . After analysis of derivative data its indicate that traders view is to Buy the stock . Our recommendation is also Buy the stock in the range of 1320-25 target 1335/1345 Sl 1310

MACRO NEWS 

Revised and simpler tax return forms as well as lower refunds will likely boost revenue collection from Goods and Services Tax (GST), which the government expects to touch to Rs 1.5 lakh crore every month from the next financial year (2019-20).“GST collections should be around Rs 1.5 lakh crore per month from next year. New return form will also help in tax evasion,” a senior government official told .

US stocks closed lower in a shortened post-holiday trading session on Friday as the energy sector tumbled on continued weakness in oil prices, and the benchmark S&P 500 confirmed its second correction of 2018.The three major US indexes all fell well over 3 percent for the week, with the Dow industrials and the Nasdaq posting their biggest weekly percentage declines since March.

Country's third largest software company HCL Technologies and NBFC major Bajaj Finance will be included in the 30-share BSE Sensex effective December 24, 2018.Wipro and Adani Ports will be excluded from the index on the same day.

2. DIVI’S LAB [FUTURE] On Daily chart we have seen that stock close above its pivot support level . Fresh Buying we have seen in last trading session . After analysis of derivative data its indicate that traders view is to Buy the stock . Our recommendation is also Buy the stock in the range of 1510 target 1520/1525 Sl 1500

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

Lupin: Company launched generic Silodosin capsules 4mg and 8mg in the US. It is indicated for the treatment of the signs and symptoms of benign prostatic 12,70,120 hyperplasia (BPH).

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

CE

27,000 62.85

6,10,226

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,100

40

3,58,722

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,200

25.5

3,38,183

SUNPHARMA

CE

500

5.9

5,006

YESBANK

CE

200

6.85

4,704

RELIANCE

CE

1,180

22.7

4,428

7,03,000

RELIANCE

CE

1,200

16

4,365

11,34,000

TCS

CE

2,000

66

4,171

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,600 88.05

3,74,669

4,98,360

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,700 128.1

3,26,309

4,33,440

RELIANCE

PE

1,140

25.1

4,542

4,07,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,120

18.2

4,355

2,76,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,100 12.85

3,398

5,24,000

SUNPHARMA PE

440 21.35

2,519

6,88,600

SUNPHARMA PE

450

2,280

7,51,300

5,77,720 Kesoram Industries: Company decided to spin off its tyre 7,75,380 business by demerging this undertaking into a resulting company, Birla Tyres Limited (BTL). BTL will also become 35,05,700 a listed company with its shareholding pattern mirroring 71,71,500 Kesoram NIFTY FUTURE

2,47,250 Nifty 50 on Tuesday the flat line for a greater part of the session, equity benchmarks have ended in the Red. The MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 2,83,500 MOST Nifty failed to close above 10,900, thought. Our Symbol Optio Strike LTP Traded Open recommendation is to sell the nifty future in range of n Price Volume Interest 10940 Target 10900 /10850 SL 11000 . Sell o n rise Type (Contracts) strategy follow. BANKNIFTY PE 26,500 58.6 5,01,277 11,15,840

26.3

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

64832

4680.02

70832

4847.81

459747

35146.17

-167.7884

INDEX OPTIONS

1448606

88832.54

1422548

87010.61

1053228

76767.14

1821.932

STOCK FUTURES

439701

24575.05

433045

24099.84

1473795

85741.19

475.2068

STOCK OPTIONS

154804

8739.18

156774

8865.47

176312

10446.71

-126.2875 2003.0629

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

10922

10895

10864

10838

10806

BANKNIFTY

26926

26810

26727

26611

26258

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD ABOVE 30925 TGT 30975 31000 SL BELOW 30820 SELL GOLD BELOW 30600 TGT 30500 30450 SL ABOVE 30700

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices were tepid on Wednesday pressured by a robust dollar after a senior U.S. Federal Reserve official reaffirmed the need for a further increase in interest rates, making bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said on Tuesday the central bank should continue to gradually raise interest rates, but it was "especially important" to monitor economic data as monetary policy was getting close to a neutral stance. strength of the U.S. dollar has been bad for gold, while the Fed is little more bullish about interest rates," said John Sharma, an economist with National Australia Bank (NAB).Prospects of higher U.S. interest rates are negative for dollar-priced gold as they raise the opportunity cost of holding the bullion.

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER ABOVE 36150 TGT 36220 36380 SL BELOW 36000 SELL SILVER BELOW 36000 TGT 35950/35870 SL ABOVE 36150

Oil rose further above $60 a barrel on Wednesday, supported by expectations that OPEC and its partners will next week decide to curb supply and helped by a drop in North Sea output. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies meet on Dec. 6-7. Producers are discussing a supply curb of 1 to 1.4 million barrels per day and possibly more, OPEC delegates have told Reuters. crude LCOc1 , the global benchmark, was up 53 cents at $60.74 a barrel at 0919 GMT and traded as high as $61.27.U.S. crude CLc1 added 41 cents to $51.97. Palm oil futures in Malaysia recovered from a more than three-year low on Wednesday, helped by a weaker ringgit but soft demand and high inventory levels kept a lid on prices.Palm touched its lowest since August 2015 on Tuesday, falling 4.4 percent over three consecutive sessions. The benchmark palm oil contract for February delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange rebounded by 2.4 percent to 2,014 ringgit ($479.75) per tonne by closing time on Wednesday.Palm futures are traded in ringgit and any weakness in the currency makes them cheaper for holders of other currencies.The ringgit edged lower for a second day on Wednesday, hitting its lowest in more than a year against the dollar.But the trader said palm was likely to struggle .

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM DEC ABOVE 8890 TARGET 8905/8915/8930 SL 8840 SELL GUARGUM ABOVE DEC 8660 TARGET 8645/8630/8600 SL 8600

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1823 5348 4706 6468 1907 4301

-0.38 3.96 -1.32 2.18 -0.37 1.21

18640

0.4

3977 3354 6502

-0.45 -0.48 -0.37

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA DEC ABOVE 6790 TARGET 6805/6830/6845 SL 6720 SELL DHANIYA DEC ABOVE 6700 TARGET 6680/6660/6640 SL 6780

The Agriwatch Agri Commodities Index fell 1.07 per cent to 109.53 during the week ended Nov 24, 2018 from 110.71 the previous week due to a sharp fall in prices of potato and onion. Sugar, pulses and edible oils also declined while cereals and cotton gained. The base for the Index and all sub-Indices is 2014 (= 100). Six of the nine commodity group sub-Indices and 17 of the 29 individual commodity sub-Indices ended lower during the week. Oil prices on Monday clawed back some losses from a nearly 8 per cent plunge the previous session, with Brent jumping back above $60 per barrel, but sentiment remained weak amid a broad sell-off in financial markets in past weeks. Front-month Brent crude oil futures rose $1.31, or 2.2 per cent, to $60.11 per barrel by 0643 GMT. The gains partly made up for Friday's selloff, which traders have already dubbed 'Black Friday'. Reacting to Friday's falls in Brent and WTI, China's Shanghai crude futures on Monday fell by 5 per cent, hitting their daily downside-limit. The downward pressure comes from surging supply and a slowdown in demand growth which is expected to result in an oil supply overhang by next year. Australia-based MoooFarm Monday said it will train two lakh Indian dairy farmers by 2020 to develop their skills in areas like cattle nutrition with a view to increase farmers' income by at least 20 per cent. MoooFarm will train the farmers through UDAY, a skill development firm, which is its partner in India. The firm said it will also launch a hashtag called #TheColorofMilk on the occasion of National Milk Day, asking people to find the purity of milk. "Our master trainers are providing content to farmers for scaling up, which is being delivered through village-level entrepreneurs. Our target states include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana .

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

70.45 Yen

62.04

Euro

79.83 GBP

89.6539

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR BUY USDINR NOV ABOVE 70.5 TGT 70.6 70.7 SL 70.25 SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 70.10 TGT 70 69.8 SL 70.30

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR NOV ABOVE 90 TGT 90.2 90.4 SL 89.8 SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 88.95 TGT 88.85 88.75 SL 89.20

The dollar was trading at two-week highs against a currency basket on Wednesday as markets awaited fresh signals from the Federal Reserve on interest rates and developments in the U.S.-China trade war remained in focus.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, edged up 0.1% to 97.35 by 04:25 AM GMT (09:25 AM GMT), the most since Nov. 13.Investors were looking ahead to a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell later in the day and the minutes of the U.S. central bank’s November meeting, due to be released on Thursday. Markets are hoping for fresh indications on the future path of interest rate increases. The Fed is widely expected to raise rates for a fourth time this year at its upcoming meeting in December and has indicated that it may raise rates three more time in 2019.But dovish sounding comments by some policymakers in recent weeks have raised the prospect that the Fed may slow the pace of future rate hikes amid concerns over the outlook for the global economy and ongoing global trade tensions.On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump once again criticized Powell, whom he picked last year to lead the bank, and the Fed’s rate hikes, which he said were harming the economy.Also Tuesday, Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida backed further rate hikes, but said the tightening path would be data dependent.Market watchers were also looking ahead to the upcoming G20 summit in Buenos Aires later this week, where Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are scheduled to discuss trade. Investors are hoping that talks could lead to a ceasefire in the trade war.Trump said earlier this week that it was "highly unlikely" he would accept China's request to hold off a planned increase in tariffs due to take effect in January. The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dipped today, and is currently trading at $1.1274, after the release of Germany’s Gfk consumer confidence survey showed a decrease for December.

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

04/12/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

DEC

04/12/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

04/12/18

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

BUY

6660

6615/6630/66 60

6520

TARGET HIT

DEC

Sell

6550

6535/6520/65 00

6600

SL HIT

NCDEX GUARGUM5

DEC

BUY

8780

8800/8815/88 30

8720

TARGET HIT

04/12/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

DEC

SELL

8630

8615/8600/85 80

8700

NOT EXECUTED

04/12/18

MCX GOLD

DEC

BUY

30925

30975/31000

30820

NOT EXECUTED

04/12/18

MCX GOLD

DEC

SELL

30600

30500/30450

30700

NOT EXECUTED

04/12/18

MCX SILVER

DEC

BUY

36150

36220/36380

36000

NOT EXECUTED

04/12/18

MCX SILVER

DEC

SELL

36000

35950/35870

36150

NOT EXECUTED

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

04/12/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

BUY

10970

10950/10900

11000

NOT EXECUTED

04/12/18

JUBILANT FOOD

FUTURE

BUY

1340

1350/1355

1335

SL HIT

04/12/18

YES BANK

FUTURE

BUY

182

186/190

177

SL HIT

04/11/18

JUBILANT FOOD

CASH

BUY

1340

1350/1355

1335

SL HIT

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Special Report

05-Dec-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIO US

MONDAY, DEC. 3 9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI

Nov.

--

55.4

10 am

Construction spending

Oct.

0.3%

0.0%

TUESDAY, DEC. 4

TUESDAY, DEC. 4

TUESDAY, TUESDAY, DEC. 4 DEC. 4

TUESDA TUESDAY, DEC. Y, DEC. 4 4

WEDNESD AY, DEC. 5

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 5

WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY, DEC. 5 AY, DEC. 5 DEC. 5

WEDNE SDAY, DEC. 5

8:15 am

ADP employment

Nov.

---

227,000

8:30 am

Productivity

Q3

2.3%

2.2%

9:45 am

Markit services PMI

Nov.

--

55.4

10 am

ISM nonmanufacturing index

Nov.

59.8%

60.3%

--

--

--

-THURSD AY, DEC. 6

10 am

Varies

8:30 am

10 am

9:45 am

9:45 am 2 pm

Quarterly services survey

Markit manufacturing index flash

Nov.

Markit Beigeservices book index flash

Nov.

Q3

--

55.7

--

54.8

THURSDAY THURSDAY, DEC. 6 , DEC. 6

THURSDA THURSDAY, DEC. 6 Y, DEC. 6

THURSDAY, DEC. 6

8:30 am

12/1

225,000

Weekly jobless claims

234,000

8:30 am 10 am

The

Factory orders

Oct.

-2.0%

0.7%

information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the

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