Special Report 5-July-2018
Global markets at a glance Wall Street ended higher on Monday after a choppy session, with gains in Apple and other technology stocks offsetting worries about an escalating trade war between Washington and its trading partners.Microsoft Inc , Facebook Inc and Apple Inc each rose 1 percent or more, pushing the S&P 500 information technology index up 0.99 percent, bringing gains for the year-to-date to 11 percent as investors bet on strong earnings from Silicon Valley in the approaching quarterly reporting season."It doesn't look like tech is going to slow down this year," said Jake Dollarhide, chief executive officer of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma. "The tech play is here to say."Traders were also eyeing the July 6 deadline for US tariffs on USD 34 billion worth of Chinese goods to kick in, which pose the danger of a strong response from Beijing. Asian stocks got off to a cautious start on Thursday as investors remained nervous amid a looming deadline for Washington’s proposed tariffs on Chinese imports, leaving financial markets in a state of anxious uncertainty. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.03 percent after declining 0.4 percent the previous day. Previous day Roundup The Nifty which started on a bullish note reclaimed its crucial resistance level of 10,700 in the opening tick Wednesday and built momentum to rally above 10,750 but closed marginally below its resistance level of 10,770. The index is now trading above most of its crucial short-term moving averages. It formed a bullish candle on the daily candlestick charts and is now trading above 5, 13, and 50EMA After closing above the 50-EMA, now the real challenge for bulls is to cross the interim top placed around 10,850 levels, experts said, adding the further short covering then may push Nifty towards 11,000 levels. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-6.90pts], Consumption[38.60pts],PSE[-22.95pts],CPSE[2.60pts],Energy[94.30 pts],FMCG[134.55pts],Auto [135.20pts],Pharma[74.30pts],IT[ -96.40pts],Metal [4.30pts],Realty[1.25 pts], Fin Serv sector[109.45pts].
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
24,307.20
0.15
S&P500
2,725.25
-0.07
NASDAQ FTSE100
7,113.50 7,547.85
-0.06 -1.18
21,644.83 28,144.92
-0.77 -2.88
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
2,979.05
116.65
4.08
934.20
31.10
3.44
Maruti Suzuki
9,220.80
245.65
2.74
Bharti Infratel
299.50
8.00
2.74
6,032.85
147.65
2.51
Bajaj Auto Lupin
Bajaj Finserv
Top Losers Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Idea Cellular
55.15
-1.65
-2.90
HPCL Grasim Cipla
252.30 965.45 628.90
-6.55 -20.40 -11.50
-2.53 -2.07 -1.80
BPCL
367.85
-6.05
-1.62
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
53.05
3.95
7.45
BRITANNIA
6216.55
84.45
1.36
ELECTROSL
1.9
0.05
2.63
GLAXO
2834.45
65.55
2.31
GODREJCP
1250.55
23.85
1.91
BANG
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
8KMILES ABAN ADVANIHOTR AGCNET ALPSINDUS
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
392.2 109.65 51.4 104.05 1.9
-77.7 6.45 -1.7 -2 0.05
-19.81 5.88 -3.31 -1.92 2.63
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10769.90
70.00
0.65
SENSEX
35645.40
266.80
0.75
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Special Report 5-July-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.BHARATFINANCE [FUTURE ] The particular script of finance sector has closed near its crucial resistance level 1196 here we can expect huge upside moment due to market strength so we advice to BUY BHARATFIN AROUND 1200 –1205 TGT 1215-1225 SL BELOW 1190
2.BPCL [FUTURE] The particular script getting resistance at the level of 370, as per the daily chart it is consolidating at its lower level here3 we can enter on breakout so we advice to BUY BPCL FUTURE AROUND 370-371 TGT 375-380 SL BELOW 367
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] PETRONET [CASH] The particular counter consolidating around its crucial resistance level of 221 here we can on bre4akout so we advice to BUY PETRONET AROUND 221-222 TGT 225-230 SL BELOW 219
MACRO NEW Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 5.5 points or 0.05 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,767level on the Singaporean Exchange. China will “absolutely not” fire the first shot in a trade war with the United States and will not be the first to levy tariffs, its finance ministry said on Wednesday. A person with knowledge of the plan earlier told Reuters China’s threatened tariffs on USD 34 billion of US goods would take effect from the beginning of the day on Friday. Given the 12-hour time difference, that would have put its implementation ahead of Washington’s. Union Minister Arun Jaitley on Wednesday said the government's fiscal deficit target would not be breached on account of higher MSP for 14 crops as large provisioning for food subsidy has already been made in the Budget for current fiscal. Banks' unsecured loan book has grown four times the bank credit during the past three years, helped by a rise in discretionary spending, technology-driven disbursements and lower interest rates, says a report."Between fiscals 2015 and 2018, unsecured credit - comprising personal, small and medium enterprise (SME), and credit card loans - clocked a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27 percent or almost four times growth in bank credit," Crisil said in a report on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump again accused the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries of driving gas prices higher on Twitter on Wednesday and urged the oil cartel’s members to do more.
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Special Report 5-July-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
BANKNIFTY
CE
26,200
248
2,79,968
1,87,320
BANKNIFTY
CE
26,800
3.7
1,93,348
5,20,720
NIFTY
CE
10,800
101
1,47,253
28,80,750
NIFTY
CE
10,700 159.05
1,03,573
25,78,275
SRTRANSFIN
CE
1,200
38.5
7,478
5,24,400
RELIANCE
CE
1,000 23.95
7,079
28,04,000
MARUTI
CE
9,500 73.65
5,875
63,450
SRTRANSFIN
CE
1,150
5,105
2,22,600
59.3
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
BANKNIFTY
Future Lifestyle to acquire up to 29.9% of Koovs .
Yes Bank to foray into mutual fund biz, gets Sebi nod
Tech Mahindra to set up Blockchain centre within R&D arm .
NIFTY FUTURE
2,83,500
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
PE
26,400 50.95
1,64,271
BANKNIFTY
PE
25,700
1.35
1,62,087
NIFTY
PE
10,600 68.95
1,35,184
NIFTY
PE
10,700 97.85
1,15,773
SRTRANSFIN
PE
1,100
40
6,040
SRTRANSFIN
PE
1,000
14.9
5,126
SRTRANSFIN
PE
1,050
25.5
3,094
MARUTI
PE
8,800 42.95
2,961
Open Interest The Nifty which started on a bullish note reclaimed its
crucial resistance level of 10,700 in the opening tick 6,36,560 Wednesday and built momentum to rally above 10,750 but closed marginally below its resistance level of 2,87,480 10,770. 51,75,600 The index is now trading above most of its crucial short27,11,925 term moving averages. It formed a bullish candle on the 2,56,800 daily candlestick charts and is now trading above 5, 13, and 50-EMA.We recommend to BUY NIFTY FUTURE 2,43,600 AROUND 10700-10710 TGT 10750-10800 SL ABOVE 2,16,600 10650. 61,500
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
21339
1875.18
26507
2425.00
INDEX OPTIONS
925165
90098.59
915408
STOCK FUTURES
143157
9276.69
STOCK OPTIONS
68719
4762.33
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
245786
20201.28
-549.8184
89215.30
638605
53648.74
883.2853
142552
9182.84
1149054
79729.12
93.8536
69376
4794.35
59195
4005.05
-32.0172 395.3033
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
10841.00
10805.00
10741.00
10705.00
10641.00
BANKNIFTY
26696.00
26564.00
26348.00
26216.00
26000.00
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Special Report 5-July-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD AUG FUT ABOVE 30530 TGT 30580 30630 SL BELOW 30480 SELL GOLD AUG FUT BELOW 30420 TGT 30370 30320 SL ABOVE 30470
COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices edged down in early Asian trade on Monday as the dollar firmed, changing direction from Friday when the metal rose for the first time in five sessions.U.S. consumer prices accelerated in the year to May, with a measure of underlying inflation hitting the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target for the first time in six years. White House national security adviser John Bolton said on Sunday he believed the bulk of North Korea's weapons programmes could be dismantled within a year, although some experts say the complete process could take far longer. German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer offered his resignation to party colleagues late on Sunday, party officials said, escalating a row over migration with Chancellor Angela Merkel that threatens her fragile government.
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 39800 TGT 39850 39900 SL BELOW 39750 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 38560 TGT 38500 38450 SL ABOVE 38600
COMEX Silver futures fell to seven month lows yesterday, breaking under $16 per once on continued selling pressure. MCX Silver also dropped 1.27% to close at Rs 39415 per kg. Large metals speculators cut their bullish net positions in the Silver futures markets last week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday. The non-commercial futures contracts of Silver futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 34,221 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday June 26th. This was a weekly slide of -6,681 contracts. Speculative net positions declined for a second straight week following six weeks of increases. Meanwhile, the commercial traders position, hedgers or traders engaged in buying and selling for business purposes, totaled a net position of -49,031 contracts - recording a weekly gain of 9,510 contracts. Copper continues to stay under pressure after testing its lowest level in nearly nine months, as manufacturing activity in both China and the eurozone has slowed in June. A modest rally in the commodity earlier in the day has failed to extend further and the metal currently trades at $2.94 per pound, down marginally on the day. MCX Copper is down 0.30% at Rs 449.35 per kg. A private gauge showed growth in China's manufacturing sector dropped in June, raising concerns over the effect of an intensifying trade conflict with the US China is the world's largest consumer of copper and many other raw materials. Manufacturing activity in the eurozone also slowed last month, data firm IHS Markit said Monday.
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Special Report 5-July-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM JULY ABOVE 8400 TARGET 8430 8460 SL 8370 SELL GUARGUM JULY BELOW 8140 TARGET 8100 8070 SL 8170
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1470.5 4278 3612 4773 1542 3875.5
-0.57 2.1 0.89 0.82 0.72 -0.23
Jeera
18575
1.12
4001 3526 7150
-0.67 -1.48 0.3
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
USDA forecasts that China's soybean imports will increase to 100.5 MMT in MY18/19 from the estimated 97 MMT in MY17/18. This forecast, is 2.5 MMT lower than USDA's June forecast. Due to the combination of the moderate increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soybean meal use, a net growth of 3.5 MMT of soybean imports in MY18/19 is expected to meet the Chinese demand growth for protein meals. CORINDER BUY CORIANDER JULY ABOVE 4800 TARGET 4830 4860 SL 4770 SELL CORIANDER JULY BELOW 4700 TARGET 4670 4640 SL 4730
U.S. soybean exports to China continue to face strong competition from soybean exports from South America. Excessive soybean stocks and a fall in the soybean price in Brazil attributed to the 14.2 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports to China in the first half of MY17/18. This is significantly higher than the 5.2 MMT during the same period in MY16/17. Despite China's net growth of over 2 MMT of soybean imports in the first half of MY17/18, total soybean imports from the United States fell to 24.4 MMT in this period, down from the 31.6 MMT in the previous year. Chinese importers note that Brazilian soybeans have a one percent higher protein content than U.S. soybeans. Importers were previously willing to pay a slightly higher price for soybeans with a higher protein content, but with the drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans, exports are now surging As per official data, Ukraine supplied some 1 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in May 2017/18. This was down 10% from April (1.1 MMT) but up 2% from May 2016/17 (986.8 KMT). In July-May 2017/18, wheat exports totaled 16.3 MMT, or 3% less than in the same period in MY 2016/17. Ukrainian wheat shipments to the European Union and Indonesia grew substantially in the current season. In the period under review, exports to Indonesia increased to 2.1 MMT that was 31% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17.
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Special Report 5-July-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
68.5312 Yen
62.0900
Euro
80.0239 GBP
90.5229
USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 69.00 TGT 69.30/69.60 SL BELOW 68.70 SELL USDINR BELOW 68 TGT 67.80/67.55 SL ABOVE 68.20
GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91.50 TGT 91.70/91.90 SL BELOW 91.30 SELL GBPINR BELOW 89.80 TGT 89.60/89.40 SL ABOVE 90.00
The battered rupee today suffered yet another blow by plunging 34 paise to end at a near five-year low of 68.80 against the buoyant US dollar in the midst of weak global trends and concerns on macro-economic front. This is the level last seen on 28 August, 2013. With very little chance of RBI intervention, panic dollar demand from importers and speculative traders sent the home currency sinking to a low of 68.81 in late afternoon deals. Although the initial gains had been short-lived. It touched a high of 68.33 in morning deals. The rupee tumbled below 69-mark for the first time ever on Thursday and hit a lifetime low of 69.10. The Asia's third-largest economy, India is facing severe macro challenges and goldilocks economic conditions are now changing fast against the grim backdrop of bubbling global crude prices and most likely to disrupt government's fiscal maths and poses additional upside risks to inflation forecast Crude prices were down little on prospects of increased Saudi supply after US President Donald Trump called on OPEC to produce more oil. Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production by 700,000 bpd to 10.70 million bpd, very close to its highest ever production of 10.72 million bpd from November 2016. Brent crude futures, an international benchmark, is trading sharply down at USD 78.56 a barrel, in early Asian trade. It had gained more than 5 per cent last week. The US is set to impose fresh tariffs on USD 34 billion worth of Chinese goods on Friday and the world's second-largest economy is on course to retaliate. Meanwhile, overseas investors and funds pulled out nearly Rs 48,000 crore from Indian capital markets in the first six months of 2018, making it the steepest outflow in a decade due to deteriorating domestic macro environment. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in India seems to be petering out with the inflows growth rate recording a fiveyear low of 3 per cent to USD 44.85 billion in 2017-18, the latest data of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) showed. In the meantime, country's foreign exchange reserves fell for a second week to USD 407.82 billion, the RBI said.
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Special Report 5-July-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
54.6
0.0%
1.8%
MONDAY, JULY 2 9;45 am
Markit manufacturing PMI (final)
June 10 am
10 am
Construction spending
May
TUESDAY, JULY 3
TUESDAY, JULY 3
TUESDAY , JULY 3
TUESDAY, JULY 3
TUESDAY, JULY TUESDAY, 3 JULY 3
Varies 10 am
Factory orders
May
-0.1%
WEDNESD AY, JULY 4
WEDNESDAY, JULY 4
WEDNES WEDNESDAY, JULY DAY, 4 JULY 4
THURSDA Y, JULY 5
THURSDAY, JULY 5
THURSD AY, JULY THURSDAY, JULY 5 5
8:15 am
ADP employment
8:30 am 9:45 am
-0.8%
WEDNESDAY, WEDNESD JULY 4 AY, JULY 4
THURSDAY, JULY 5
THURSDA Y, JULY 5
June
--
178,000
Weekly jobless claims
6/23
224,000
227,000
Markit services PMI (final)
June
56.5
10 am 2 pm
FOMC minutes
Disclaimer
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
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