Special report-11-mar-2019-epic-research

Page 1

Special Report 11–MAR-2019

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

Wall Street’s major indexes fell on Monday, weighed down by a weak US construction spending report and declines in healthcare shares, as an initial rally on optimism over a USChina trade deal faded.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 206.67 points, or 0.79 percent, to 25,819.65, the S&P 500 lost 10.88 points, or 0.39 percent, to 2,792.81 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 17.79 points, or 0.23 percent, to 7,577.57.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25791

-0.09

S&P500

2792

-0.39

NASDAQ

7577

-0.23

FTSE100

7134

+0.39

21693 28915

-0.59 -0.15

Asian shares stepped back on Tuesday after China cut its economic growth target and pledged measures to support the economy amid growing challenges from rising debt and a dispute over trade and technology with the United States.Australian shares dropped 0.6 percent while South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.5 percent. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2 percent and Japan’s Nikkei dropped 0.3 percent. China cut its growth target for this year to 6.0 to 6.5 percent, in line with expectations, from around 6.5 percent last year.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 22.5 points or 0.21 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,825-level on the Singaporean Exchange

Top Gainers

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets are trading with a positive bias with all the major indices trading in green. The Nifty is up 51 points at 10,843, while Bank Nifty is up 240 points at 27,030.Nifty and Bank Nifty futures have added fresh long positions in the first half of today’s trade. Across the board buying was seen in major midcap heavyweights with the Nifty Mid-cap index outperforming the benchmark index by ~0.8%. PSU Banking stocks also put up a strong show with Canara Bank, Indian Bank, & Allahabad Bank adding fresh open interest with a sharp surge in the underlying price, indicating a buildup of long positions. CG Power was the top Nifty500 gainer, up 13%. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+43.85pts], Consumption[+19.55pts],PSE[+52.4pts],CPSE [+31.25pts],Energy[+39.25pts],FMCG[+202.05pts],Auto [+58.5pts],Pharma[+87.8pts],IT[+116.30pts],Metal [+51.10pts],Realty[+0.10ts], Fin Serv sector[+80.75pts].

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NTPC

152.2

6

4.1

21,871.05

349.55

1.62

349.65

5.5

1.6

UltraTechCement

3,972.00

59.2

1.51

Bajaj Auto

2,955.70

35.8

1.23

CMP

Change

% Chg

181.2 257.7 507.85 195.55 1,009.05

-8.1 -11.15 -13.3 -5.05 -25.5

-4.28 -4.15 -2.55 -2.52 -2.46

Eicher Motors GAIL

Top Losers Company

Tata Motors Wipro Tata Steel Hindalco HCL Tech

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

AAVAS

1,085.00

65.85

6.56

472.5

22.5

5

2,049.00

-50.4

-2.48

136.75

3.75

2.86

1.7

0.05

3.03

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

450

22.5

5

73

3.4

4.63

443.95 37.65 199

17.7 -1.3 -0.05

3.52 -3.06 -0.02

ANUP ASTRAZEN BALRAMCHIN BILENERGY

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ANUP ARROWGREEN ASTEC BANARBEADS BIL

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11035

-22.8

-0.21

SENSEX

36671

-53.99

-0.15

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. Vedanta [FUTURE ]

REPCOHOME

Vedanta — In vendanta we have seen that hammer formation on weekly chart . In last two weeks strong buying force seen in metal & energy stock. On technical point of view stock is near to its resistence level , it may posssible resistence will be breakout in upcoming week . Our recommendation is to Buy stock future 175-178 Target 185190 Sl 165

Stock showing strength in last day & it is going to be continued beacuse after analysis of derivate date we have seen the increase in open interest along with the price of stock rise . Our recommendation is to buy the stock above 458 target 461/465 Sl 452 .

MACRO NEWS 2. KSCL [FUTURE]

KSCL— In KSCL we have seen Buying in this week , we may expect that it will be continue in upcoming week also. On Technical point of view seen trend line breakout & also stock bounce back RSI & MACD also indicate upmove in this stock with strong volume.Our recommendation is Buy stock future in the range of 427 Target 430/433 Sl 422

DHFL: Brickwork Ratings India downgraded its rating on secured NCD of the company worth Rs 29,000 crore to AA (credit watch with negative implications) from AA+ (credit watch with developing implications), citing degrowth in business on account of inability to raise funds.

Alok Industries: National Company Law Tribunal approved the resolution plan submitted by Reliance Industries, JM Financial Asset Reconstruction Company and JM Financial Asset Reconstruction Company (as trustee to JMF ARC - March 2018 - Trust).

Sharda Motor Industries: Board unanimously approved the scheme of arrangement of the company with the resulting company presently under incorporation in the name of NDR Auto Components Limited. The scheme provides for the demerger of Automobile Seating undertaking into the resulting company.

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,000

79

5,32,396

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,800

174

3,82,090

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,900

118

3,75,655

RELIANCE

CE

1,300

18.8

4,822

TATASTEEL

CE

520

9.8

4,497

TATAMOTORS CE

200

1.9

4,469

AXISBANK

CE

740

17

4,077

BAJFINANCE

CE

2,800

61.7

4,068

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

Bharat Electronics: Board declared the second interim dividend of 70 paise per share of Re 1 each fully paid-up (70 percent) for the financial year 2018-2019.

5,38,140 Mangalam Cement: Board approved the amalgamation 2,85,540 of Mangalam Timber Products Limited with the company and approved loan up to Rs 5 crore to Mangalam Timber 1,79,840 Products. 14,87,500 NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On daily weekly chart we have 9,99,462 identify that Head & Shoulder pattern is forming at the 60,82,000 top . Head & shoulder & for a short term forming Raising wedge pattern in technical term bearish reversal 15,70,800 pattern .Nifty breach the important level of 11000 in this 1,95,500 week ,but closing below 11000 .On technical point of view still our recommendation is to sell nifty future in 2,83,500 the range of 10800 Target 10750/10700 SL 10900 Our Open strategy is to sell on rise . Interest

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,500

72

3,95,101

5,49,580

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,400

53

2,65,231

3,27,680

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,600 92.55

2,62,128

3,28,400

TATAMOTORS PE

180

5.9

4,049

20,10,000

TATASTEEL

PE

510

12.8

4,007

4,21,217

RELIANCE

PE

1,260

22.3

3,915

4,58,500

BAJFINANCE

PE

2,700

39.9

3,154

1,40,500

HDFCBANK

PE

2,100 17.35

3,147

3,76,250

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

28024

2066.57

31825

2317.96

216370

16756.20

-251.3954

INDEX OPTIONS

1484872

93398.99

1470680

92389.86

757823

57090.70

1009.1268

STOCK FUTURES

165729

9822.06

185319

10910.50

1399172

86144.31

-1088.4436

STOCK OPTIONS

112542

6865.79

110125

6726.32

110165

6591.10

139.4702 -191.242

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11071

11053

11031

11031

10991

BANKNIFTY

27905

27833

27739

27739

27573

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: GOLD BUY ABOVE 32250 Target 32270 /32300 Sl 32200 GOLD SELL BELOW 32200 Target 32170/32150 Sl 32250

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver Buy Above 38500 Target 38540/38570 Sl 38420 Silver Sell Below 38200 Target 38170/38150 Sl 38250

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices edged up on Monday as the dollar fell against the yuan after U.S. President Donald Trump said he would delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, while palladium surged to a record high.A strong yuan makes bullion cheaper for world's leading consumer- China.The offshore yuan strengthened 0.2 percent to 6.689 yuan CNH= against the dollar, after hitting its highest level since midJuly. USD/Trump said on Sunday that he would delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods that had been scheduled for later this week, citing "substantial progress" in Sino-U.S. trade talks over the weekend, and that he and his Chinese counterpart would meet to seal a deal if progress continued. gold XAU= rose 0.2 percent to $1,330.26 per ounce at 0655 GMT. U.S. gold futures GCv1 were steady at $1,332.70.Trump's extension of tariff deadline has weakened the dollar, driving gold up, said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst, OANDA."Gold, as it moves into the European and New York trading session, might come under pressure from the stock market," Halley said, adding that there won't be any sustained downward pressure until there is more information on the trade deal. Indonesia's palm oil output likely eased in January from a month earlier, in line with the vegetable oil's production cycle, while exports were expected to have picked up slightly, according to a Reuters survey.Palm oil output in top producer Indonesia declined 7.7 percent to 3.60 million tonnes from 3.90 million tonnes a month earlier, according to the median results of a survey of two palm oil groups and a state palm research firm.Production of the tropical oil typically falls during the first quarter of the year.Exports were estimated at 3.04 million tonnes in January, compared with 2.90 million tonnes in December.India, Indonesia's top palm buyer, cut import taxes on crude and refined palm oil from January, easing pressure on shipments. However, Indonesian palm oil is still taxed at a higher rate compared to Malaysian oil.Indonesia on Saturday offered to open up its market for India's sugar in exchange for a lower palm oil tax. the domestic use of palm oil was estimated at 1.18 million tonnes in January, compared with 1.38 million tonnes a month earlier. By the end of January, palm oil stocks were estimated to have eased to 2.85 million tonnes from 3.43 million tonnes a month ago, according to the survey.

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM MARCH ABOVE 8400 TGT 8500/8600 SL BELOW 8270 SELL GUARGUM MARCH BELOW 8250 TGT 8150/8050 SL ABOVE 8370

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA APRIL ABOVE 6220 TGT 6260/6310 SL BELOW 6170 SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 6130 TGT 6080/6030 SL ABOVE 6200

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Castor Seed

4100

-0.46

6268 1936 4146.5 15440

-1.72 -1.14 0.33 0.03

Jeera

3840

-0.42

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

3637 6238 6148

-0.55 0.64 0.29

Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

Global liquid fuels production was expected to exceed global consumption through 2020, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook.EIA forecast that higher U.S. crude oil production growth and slightly lower global oil consumption will offset the short-term supply reductions. As a result, global petroleum liquids stocks increase and prices remain relatively flat.According to EIA's February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), global liquid fuels inventories grew by an estimated 0.5 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, and will grow by 0.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.6 million b/d in 2020.EIA expected U.S. crude oil production to average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.2 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth from the Permian region of the state of Texas and New Mexico. When it comes to oil prices, EIA forecast Brent spot prices will average 61 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2019 and 62 dollars per barrel in 2020, compared with an average of 71 dollars per barrel in 2018.EIA expected that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average 8 dollars per barrel lower than Brent prices in the first quarter of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to 4 dollars per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2019 and through 2020. India's natural rubber imports in January declined 4.8% from a year earlier to 39,997 tonnes, the state-run Rubber Board said, as local consumption fell due to weak demand from tyre makers.The country's production last month eased 1.4 percent from a year ago to 72,000 tonnes, while consumption dropped 2.4 percent to 97,000 tonnes, the board said.India's imports between April to January jumped more than 30 percent from a year ago to 489,085 tonnes, it said.

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency Rupee- $

Rate Currency

Rate

70.2875 Yen

63.3475

79 GBP

91.9650

Euro USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR

BUY USDINR ABOVE 70.35 TGT 70.45/70.55 SL BELOW 70.25 SELL USDINR BELOW 70.2 TGT 70.10/70 SL ABOVE 70.3

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 92.10 TGT 92.2/92.3 SL BELOW 91.9 SELL GBPINR BELOW 91.8 TGT 91.7/91.6 SL ABOVE 92

The Australian dollar and the Chinese yuan inched up on hopes Washington and Beijing were close to a trade deal after a bitter year-long tariff dispute.Fuelling such expectations was a report from the Wall Street Journal on Sunday that said the United States and China could reach a formal agreement at a summit around March 27 given progress in talks between the two countries. Aussie gained as much as 0.57 percent to $0.7118, before giving up some of its gains to $0.7085 AUD=D4 following soft business inventories and declines in job advertisements and dwelling approvals. data was seen as pointing to a weak reading in Australian GDP data due on Wednesday, prompted speculators to create new short positions," said Yukio Ishizuki, senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.But Ishizuki also said markets had gone too far in pricing in a downturn in the Australian economy."Interest rate futures are now pricing in a rate cut this year but the economy could turn out to be stronger than expected given recent strength in commodity prices. I'd bet the Aussie could easily rise to around $0.73-74," he said.The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold its policy meeting on Tuesday.The Chinese yuan ticked up 0.20 percent to 6.7030 to the dollar in offshore trade CNH= , edging near its 7-1/2-month high of 6.6737 hit last week.The yuan has been supported since late last month after Washington delayed its self-imposed March 1 deadline for raising tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, citing progress in its trade talks with Beijing. While the trade optimism pushed the dollar lower against most Asian currencies, it helped erase the greenback's earlier losses against the safe-haven yen JPY= , which followed U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism about Federal Reserve monetary policy and a strong dollar. dollar traded at 111.96 yen JPY= , near a 10-week high of 112.08 on Friday. It had dipped to 111.75 yen after Trump's comments on the Fed. have a gentleman that likes a very strong dollar at the Fed...I want a strong dollar, but I want a dollar that's great for our country not a dollar that is so strong that it is prohibitive for us to be dealing with other nations," he told his supporters in a speech.) .

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

08/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6340

08/03/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

08/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

MAR

08/03/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

08/03/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6355/6370/64 00

6280

NOT EXECUTED

6250

6235/6220/61 90

6310

TARGET

BUY

8200

8215/8240/82 60

8260

TARGET

MAR

SELL

8150

8135/8120/80 80

8210

TARGET

MCX GOLD

MAR

BUY

33350

33400/33475

33250

NOT EXECUTED

08/03/19

MCX GOLD

MAR

SELL

32900

32800/32800

33

TARGET

08/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

BUY

40700

40750/40800

40500

NOT EXECUTED

08/03/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

SELL

40400

40300/40200

40600

NOT EXECUTED

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

08/03/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

10800

10750/10700

10900

TARGET

08/03/19

TITAN

FUTURE

BUY

1040

1045/1050

1030

TARGET

08/03/19

KSCL

FUTURE

SELL

410

405/400

420

TARGET

08/03/19

REPOHOME

CASH

BUY

325

330/335

315

TARGET

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O


Special Report 11–MAR-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

TIME (ET)

PERIO ACTUAL D

REPORT

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WILL DELAY THE RELEASE OF SOME DATA THIS WEEK. MONDAY, MARCH 11 8:30 am

Retail sales* (new date)

Jan.

-1.2%

8:30 am

Retail sales ex-autos* (new date)

Jan.

-1.8%

10 am

Business inventories* (new date)

Dec.

-0.1%

11 am

Survey of consumer expectations

Feb.

TUESDAY, MARCH 12 6 am

NFIB small-business index

Feb.

101.2

8:30 am

Consumer price index

Feb.

0.0%

8:30 am

Core CPI

Feb.

0.2%

2 pm

Federal budget

Feb.

DELAYED

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 13 8:30 am

Durable goods orders* (new date)

Jan.

1.2%

8:30 am

Core capital goods orders* (new date)

Jan.

-1.0%

8:30 am

Producer price index

Feb.

-0.1%

9:45 10 am amMarkit manufacturing index flash Construction spending* (newNov. date)

--

55.7

9:45 am

--

54.8

Markit services index flash

THURSDAY, MARCH 14

Nov.

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

3/9

--

8:30 am

Import prices

Feb.

0.5%

8:30 am

Retail sales*

Feb.

10 am

New home sales* (new date)

Jan.

10 am

Business inventories

Jan.

DELAYED -DELAYED

FRIDAY, MARCH 15 8:30 am

Empire state manufacturing index

March

8.8

9:15 am

Industrial production

Feb.

-0.6%

9:15 am

Capacity utilization

Feb.

78.2%

10 am

Job openings

Jan.

7.4 mln

10 am

Consumer sentiment

March

95.5

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Special Report 11–MAR-2019

Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility. The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. We are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid or Unpaid), any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

LOVELESH SHARMA

Digitally signed by LOVELESH SHARMA DN: cn=LOVELESH SHARMA c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-03-11 09:23+05:30

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