Special report-14-august-2018-epic-research

Page 1

Special Report 14-Aug-2018

Global markets at a glance US stocks dropped on Monday as global jitters from Turkey's plummeting currency spread to Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and the Dow falling for the fourth session in a row. Financial stocks bore the brunt of Turkey contagion fears, with shares of Citigroup Inc , Bank of America Corp , Wells Fargo & Co and JPMorgan Chase & Co closing down between 0.8 percent and 2.2 percent. A pledge by Turkey's central bank to stabilize the plummeting lira failed to calm investors' nerves. The currency has dropped 40 percent against the dollar so far this year. Asia share markets tried to regain their footing on Tuesday as tremors from the collapse of the Turkish lira ebbed a little and Wall Street proved resilient to the shockwaves. Japan's Nikkei led the early running with a gain of 1.0 percent, while Australia added 0.4 percent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was flat having found support above the July low of 525.52. EMini futures for the S&P 500 edged up 0.2 percent, while 10-year Treasury yields held at 2.88 percent. Investors were encouraged that falls on Wall Street were only minor. The Dow ended Monday down 0.5 percent, while the S&P 500 lost 0.40 percent and the Nasdaq 0.25 percent.Chinese economic data could provide a distraction with July retail sales, industrial output and urban investment all due. Previous day Roundup Bears continued to dominate Dalal Street for the second consecutive session on August 13 as the Nifty50 fell sharply, closing far below the psychological 11,400-mark following the Turkey crisis and further weakness in the rupee against the dollar.The Nifty closed below the five-day EMA as well as nine-day EMA, which offered major support to Nifty in earlier corrections. The index formed a small bearish candle on the daily charts.The Nifty50 after opening sharply lower and breaking 11,400 levels extended losses as the day progressed and hit an intraday low of 11,340.30. It did manage to claw back above 11,400 in afternoon trade, but failed to hold the same level and closed 73.70 points lower at 11,355.80.India VIX moved up by 4.08 percent at 13.37 levels. Spurt in VIX suggests that upside is going to be capped on immediate basis. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-48.80pts], Consumption[-8.95pts],PSE[-56.10pts],CPSE [19.50pts],Energy[-234.30pts],FMCG[4.85pts],Auto[82.75pts],Pharma[48.35pts],IT[201.00pts],Metal[ 28.95pts],Realty[-2.60 pts], Fin Serv sector[-166.05pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

DJI

25,313.14

-0.77

S&P500

2,839.25

-0.51

NASDAQ FTSE100

7,839.11 7,667.01

-0.67

22,298.08 28,366.62

-1.35 -0.85

NIKKEI HANG SENG

-0.98

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

GAIL

375.45

12.50

3.44

Tech Mahindra

659.95

14.00

2.17

Sun Pharma

563.90

9.90

1.79

HCL Tech

983.00

17.00

1.76

1,408.75

23.30

1.68

CMP

Change

% Chg

BPCL HPCL Idea Cellular SBI

379.70 273.10 52.50 294.15

-21.90 -13.05 -1.90 -10.30

-5.45 -4.56 -3.49 -3.38

Vedanta

216.30

-7.40

-3.31

Infosys

Top Losers Company

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

6.05

0.3

4.96

291.35

-2.35

-0.81

GALLISPAT

36.9

1.7

4.61

GANGOTRI

1.65

0.05

3.03

GOLDTECH

20.35

1

4.91

ELECTROSL EXIDEIND

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ACCELYA AMTEKAUTO APARINDS ASIANTILES AYMSYNTEX

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

1031.9 7.1 577.65 266.1 45.05

-11.9 -0.2 -11.85 -11.1 -3.7

-1.15 -2.82 -2.05 -4.17 -8.21

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

11355.80

-73.70

-0.64

SENSEX

37644.90

-224.33

-0.59

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.NBCC [FUTURE ] This particular counter is continuosly maitaining its downtrend yeaterday it made a bearish candle closing below 71.20 there is no support level below its bearest support level of 70.70 ,so sell on low would be good startegy to follow so we recommend to sell nbcc below 70.50 target 68-64 stoploss above 73.

2.INFY [FUTURE] With the good fundamental this particular script is has also plus point with respect to its technical , it is maintaining its uptrend and closed above its crucial resistance level of 1398,now it is acting as a support In the earlier trading session IT sector showed some strength and today it can also contunue its movement, so buy on strength would be good opportunity to go with it here we advice you to buy infy around the levels of 1405-1408 for the targets of 1415-1425 with stoploss below 1400.

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] AUROPHARMA [FUTURE] the particular script has rebounded from its support level of 600, in the previous four trading session it showed some profit booking by correcting from its peak level of 632 however after a littile correction it has resumed its uptrennd here you can go long from the current level of 620-622 for the targets of 630-640 with stoploss below 615.

MACRO NEW  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 8 points or 0.07 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,382level on the Singaporean Exchange.  India’s retail inflation fell to 4.17 percent in July, lowest in nine months, driven by cheaper food items, data released by the statistics office showed. Retail inflation, measured by Consumer Price Index (CPI) had hit a five-month high of 5 percent in June. It came in at 2.36 percent in July 2017.“Sharp decline in retail inflation to 4.17 percent, closer to RBI’s 4 percent inflation target will give a lot of comfort to monetary authorities and we expect RBI to stay in pause mode in rest of 2018-19,” Devendra Pant, Chief Economist at India Ratings said.  Indian companies garnered nearly Rs 1,00,000 crore crore through issuance of shares on preferential basis in April-June quarter of the current fiscal, registering 11-fold rise over the year-ago period. The firms had mopped up Rs 9,037 crore in the corresponding period previous fiscal. The funds mobilised during the June 2018 quarter were also higher than what the companies had raised during the entire 2017-18, when they could manage only Rs 59,500 crore. The data available with the Securities and Exchange Board of India showed that funds raised by listed firms through preferential allotment stood at Rs 99,811 crore during the first quarter of 2018-19.

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Jindal Steel & Power: Q1 profit at Rs 180.8 crore versus loss of Rs 387.1 crore; revenue surges 70.5 percent to Rs 9,665.4 crore versus Rs 5,668.2 crore (YoY).

2,32,163

7,76,400  5,34,640

29.5

2,26,037

7,91,760

Aurobindo Pharma: Q1 profit falls 12.1 percent to Rs 455.6 crore versus Rs 518.3 crore; revenue jumps 15.5 percent to Rs 4,250 crore versus Rs 3,678.7 crore (YoY).

320

2.4

6,851

CE

300

7.75

6,843

89,73,000 NIFTY FUTURE 35,97,000

SBIN

CE

310

4.2

6,009

58,38,000

TATASTEEL

CE

600

8.95

5,624

19,51,179

SBIN

CE

330

1.35

5,362

58,50,000

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,000 77.45

3,51,560

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,100

48.9

BANKNIFTY

CE

28,200

SBIN

CE

SBIN

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

BANKNIFTY

Open Interest

2,83,500

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

PE

27,800 111.3

2,67,943

6,97,680

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,700

80.5

2,19,850

BANKNIFTY

PE

27,500 41.95

2,04,047

SBIN

PE

290

6.1

7,976

SBIN

PE

300

10.5

5,387

SBIN

PE

280

3.35

5,027

RELIANCE

PE

1,180 17.15

4,758

TATASTEEL

PE

560

15.1

4,211

4,37,600 The Nifty50 after opening sharply lower and breaking 7,00,480 11,400 levels extended losses as the day progressed and hit an intraday low of 11,340.30. It did manage to claw 57,54,000 back above 11,400 in afternoon trade, but failed to hold 30,03,000 the same level and closed 73.70 points lower at 35,31,000 11,355.80. the traders can make a short position around the level of 10440-20 upto the level of 11350-300 in nifty 10,71,000 future with stoploss above 11480. 8,80,630

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

15570

1529.29

18803

1752.62

INDEX OPTIONS

529036

54569.44

527864

STOCK FUTURES

183465

12866.84

STOCK OPTIONS

125417

9595.79

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

319940

28032.80

-223.3316

54390.39

672056

59919.43

179.047

184947

12761.99

1137343

85069.47

104.8527

123125

9402.28

133532

10253.27

193.5114 254.0795

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11433.00

11394.00

11367.00

11328.00

11301.00

BANKNIFTY

27986.00

27890.00

27814.00

27718.00

27642.00

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD OCT FUT ABOVE 29830 TGT 29880 29880 SL BELOW 29760 SELL GOLD BELOW 29730 TGT 29630 29530 SL ABOVE 29800

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 38200 TGT 38350 38700 SL BELOW 38000 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 37800 TGT 37650 37350 SL ABOVE 38000

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Gold prices edged down and closed marginally lower on Friday, as the dollar strengthened against most major currencies. The dollar climbed to its best level in more than a year against major currencies. The lira crashed over 16% to a record low against the greenback amid fears the turmoil in Turkey's banking sector could significantly hurt the European economy. Russia's rouble dropped to its weakest level since late 2016 while the euro and pound hit their lowest levels in a year. With trade war concerns and imminent interest rate hikes by the Fed already keeping the dollar on a high against most major currencies, gold has been finding it tough to move higher from 2018 lows. The dollar index rose nearly 1% to 96.31.Gold futures for December ended down $0.90, or about 0.9%, at $1,219.00 an ounce. With today's fall, the yellow metal has recorded its fifth successive weekly decline. Crude oil prices climbed higher on Friday, lifted by International Energy Agency's forecast that world oil demand will increase by 110,000 barrels a day to 1.5 million barrels next year. The IEA said in its monthly oil market report that maintaining the world's oil supply will be very challenging, due to fresh U.S. sanctions against Iran. However, the agency noted that there were risks to the demand forecast from the escalating trade dispute along with any rally in prices caused by supply constraints.According to reports, China has decided to remove crude oil from its latest tariff list. Meanwhile, Baker Hughes reported today that the number of active U.S. rigs count increased by 10 to 869 for the week. Last week, rig count had dropped by 2. Crude oil futures for September delivery ended up $0.82, or 1.3%, at $67.63 a barrel. On Thursday, oil futures ended ended down $0.13, or 0.2%, at $66.81 a barrel. For the week, oil futures shed 1.3%, with concerns about likely supply shortage due to sanctions on Iran and disruptions in Libya and Venezuela. Concerns that the U.S.-China trade war could hurt global economic growth and result in a drop in demand for crude too contributed to oil's fall in recent sessions. Indian Copper futures on were trading at Rs 419 per kg, sliding around half a percent on the day. The prices were down amid weak global cues as COMEX Copper pulled back by nearly 0.70% today after a spurt in last session. India industrial production rose 7 percent year-on-year in June from a year ago, with strong gains across the board, official data showed Friday. Factory output growth measured in terms of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) was revised upwards for May at 3.9 per cent from previous estimate of 3.2 per cent estimated .

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM OCT FUT ABOVE 9800 TGT 9840 9880 SL BELOW 9760 SELL GUARGUM5 OCT FUT BELOW 9400 TARGET 9360 9320 SL 9450.

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1635 4548 4290 4900 1732 4390

1.27 -2.4 1.06 -1.21 -0.37 -3.99

19125

-1.11

4102 3334 7020

-0.15 -1.42 -0.99

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

DHANIYA BUY DHANIYA AUG FUT ABOVE 4990 TGT 5040 5140 SL BELOW 4900 SELL DHANIYA AUG FUT BELOW 4930 TGT 4880 4800 SL ABOVE 4990

Weakness was seen in wheat due to thin buying in local mandies. The spot prices of wheat increased by Rs 10 per quintal at Delhi Mandi. As per latest update from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the global 2018/19 wheat supplies are seen decreasing 9.3 million tons due to primarily on lower production, which is the smallest in three years. Strong buying by traders has extended gains in turmeric market today. The total daily arrivals of 18000-25000 bags have been reported in Nizamabad mandi, while 1000-1200 bags in Erode mandi. The spot prices of turmeric increased by Rs 30 per quintal, with the price range of Rs 6950-7200 per quintal. Weakness in oilmeal demand has added selling in mustard seed market. As per latest data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture, oilseeds acreage declined by 1.15 percent on the account of decline in groundnut and sunflower area in Gujarat. Traders stated that spot prices decreased by more than Rs 12 per quintal today in Jaipur, while arrivals were reported in the range of 0.80-1.20 lakh bags. Domestic exports of farm and processed food products went up by nearly 6% growth in dollar terms to $4.68 billion during the April-June quarter of this year over the corresponding period last year according to the latest numbers from the Agricultural and Processed Foods Export Development Authority (Apeda). In rupee terms, the growth was higher, clocking around 10% to Rs 31,397 crore. The export growth has been buyoant mainly on account of strong demand for non-basmati rice, pulses, dairy products, guar gum, fruits, vegetable seeds etc. Buoyancy continued in Chana prices today due to limited supplies. The spot prices were trading in the range of Rs 4350-4400 per quintal with total arrivals of 12 motors. As per latest data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture, the Kharif pulses area lagged by 3.90% to stand at 115 lakh hectares.

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

69.4685 Yen

62.9700

Euro

79.1876 GBP

88.6274

USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 70.50 TGT 70.80/71.10 SL BELOW 70.20 SELL USDINR BELOW 68.90 TGT 68.60/67.30 SL ABOVE 69.20

GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 89.90 TGT 90.20/90.50 SL BELOW 89.60 SELL GBPINR BELOW 89.30 TGT 89.00/88.70 SL ABOVE 89.60

The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the rupee on Friday, after most emerging market currencies fell sharply on heightened global tensions, dealers said. The rupee fell to as low as 69.03 to the dollar, its lowest since July 24, before trimming some of its losses to trade at 68.95. The rupee has been the worst performing currency in Asia so far in 2018, falling 7.4 percent since the start of January. The currency has been beset by a host of factors, with higher oil prices adding to worries about inflation, current account and fiscal deficits and rising global trade tensions. The RBI has intervened strongly in recent months to slow the slide, but it has still lost 3 percent since start of June. With the central bank hiking interest rates, the rupee is expected to trade in a tight range in the coming year, possibly edging up to 68.22 but remaining near its historic low, a Reuters poll found. The sharp fall in the rupee had prompted foreign investors to sell $5.35 billion in debt and equity in India. But flows turned mildly positive in July and August. Since the rupee is traded over the counter, the size of interventions by the central bank during the day is difficult to ascertain. However, a few dealers estimated that the RBI might have sold close to $600-800 million so far on Friday to stem the rupee's fall. The RBI typically intervenes in forex market through staterun banks. Since April RBI has sold $21 billion in spot and $10 billion in forwards, according to traders and analysts, estimating from the fall in overall foreign exchange reserves and the central bank's monthly bulletin data. Turkey's lira plunged as much as 14 percent on Friday as worries about President Tayyip Erdogan's influence over monetary policy and worsening US relations snowballed into a market panic that also hit shares of European banks. The sell-off has deepened concern about exposure to Turkey, particularly whether over-leveraged companies will be able to pay back loans in euros and dollars after years of overseas borrowing to fund a construction boom under Erdogan. Erdogan's characteristic defiance in the face of the sell-off has further unnerved investors. The president, who says a shadowy "interest rate lobby" and Western credit ratings agencies are attempting to undermine Turkey's economy, said in a speech overnight that Turks should "have no worries".

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

13/08/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

AUG

BUY

13/08/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

OCT

13/08/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

13/08/18

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

4990

5040 5140

4900

NOT EXECUTED

SELL

4930

4880 4800

4990

OPEN

AUG

BUY

9530

9600 9700

9450

NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX GUARGUM5

AUG

SELL

9800

9700 9500

9900

TGT HIT

13/08/18

MCX GOLD

AUG

BUY

29800

29850 30000

29730

TGT HIT

13/08/18

MCX GOLD

AUG

SELL

29730

29630 29530

29800

NOT EXECUTED

13/08/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

BUY

38100

38300 38600

37900

OPEN

13/08/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

SELL

37900

37700 37400

38100

NOT EXECUTED

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

13/08/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

11430

11400

11480

NOT EXECUTED

13/08/18

APOLLOTYRE

FUTURE

BUY

259-260

265-270

256

NOT EXECUTED

13/08/18

SUNTV

FUTURE

SELL

835-832

824-810

842

TGT HIT

13/08/18

STRTECH

CASH

BUY

358-356

350-340

364

SL TRIGGERED

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Special Report 14-Aug-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

TUESDAY, AUG. 14

TUESDAY, AUG. 14

TUESDAY, AUG. 14

--

-0.4%

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 15

WEDNESDA Y, AUG. 15

11 am TUESDAY, AUG. 14

TUESDAY, AUG. 14

TUESDAY, AUG. 14 6 am

8:30 am WEDNESDA Y, AUG. 15

Import price index WEDNESDAY, AUG. 15

WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, AUG. AY, AUG. 15 15 8:30 am

8:30 am

Retail sales ex-autos

July

0.3%

0.4%

8:30 am

Empire state index

Aug.

--

22.6

8:30 am 8:30 am

Unit labor costs

Q2

0.0%

2.9%

9:15 am

Industrial production

July

0.3%

0.6%

9:15 am

Capacity utilization

July

78.2%

78.0%

10 am

Home builders' index

Aug.

--

68

THURSDAY, AUG. 16

THURSDAY, AUG. 16

--

213,000

10 am THURSDAY, AUG. 16

THURSDAY, AUG. 16

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

THURSDA THURSDAY, AUG. 16 Y, AUG. 16 Disclaimer 8/11

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