Special report-17-dec-2018-epic-research

Page 1

Special Report

17-Dec-2018

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

Wall Street's three major indexes tumbled on Friday and the Dow confirmed a correction as weak data from China and Europe stoked fears of a global economic slowdown, while Johnson & Johnson shares were the biggest drag after Reuters reported the company knew for decades that its Baby Powder contained asbestos.Asian share markets started the week on a cautious footing on Monday after weak economic data from China and Europe added to evidence of cooling global growth and reinforced anxiety over the impact of international trade frictions on business and profits.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

24443

-0.52

2650

-0.020

NASDAQ

6910.66

-2.26

FTSE100

6845.17

-0.47

21374 26094

-2.02 -1.92

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was little changed while Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.1 percent in early trade. US stock futures were also almost flat.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a rise of 36.5 points or 0.34 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,867-level on the Singaporean Exchange. PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equities ended the trade on a lackluster note with major indices such as the Nifty & Bank Nifty posting marginal gains of ~0.13%/0.04%. The indices managed to extend the gains for the fourth consecutive session. PSU stocks such as BPCL, IOC, and ONGC were among the outperformers, gaining 3%, 3%, and 2%, respectively, at the close. Nifty Pharma was the worst performing index, shedding ~1% at the close. . The market breadth ended in the favor of advances with the advance/decline ratio closing at 3:2x.Tracking the derivative data points, Nifty and Bank Nifty Futures witnessed a marginal rise in open interest indicating a buildup of fresh long positions. On the options front, across the board, short vega positions were created in both Nifty & Bank Nifty options as the indices traded in a narrow range throughout the day. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+0.83pts], Consumption[+0.45pts],PSE[+1.61pts],CPSE [+1.88pts],Energy[+1.06pts],FMCG[+0.26pts],Auto [+0.19pts],Pharma[ -0.96pts],IT[++0.07pts],Metal[ 0.05pts],Realty[+0.30pts], Fin Serv sector[-0.36pts].

S&P500

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Bharti Airtel

319.25

16.15

5.33

Yes Bank

180.35

5.65

3.23

BPCL

345.3

10.4

3.11

IOC

141.25

3.85

2.8

ONGC

146.85

3.55

2.48

CMP

Change

% Chg

1,904.10 961.2 293.1 333.1 931.5

-37.95 -16.85 -4.95 -5.55 -12.65

-1.95 -1.72 -1.66 -1.64 -1.34

Top Losers Company

HDFC HCL Tech JSW Steel Wipro Titan Company

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

AAVAS

785.9

18.6

2.37

CGCL

127.3

7.45

5.85

ICICILIQ

1000

0

0

LIQUIDETF

1000

0

0

189.25

22.45

11.86

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

2

0.1

5

21.3

-1.05

-4.93

1.7 1.3 78.15

0.05 0 2.85

2.94 0 3.65

NRBBEARING

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ABGSHIP AIFL ALCHEM ANGIND ATLASCYCLE

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10805.5

14

+0.13

SENSEX

35962.63

33.29

+0.09

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. GAIL (FUTURE ) On Daily chart we have seen that stock near its resistence level, expectation it will broke its resistense level. . Fresh Buying we have seen in last trading session . After analysis of derivative data its indicate that traders view is to buy the stock . Our recommendation is also Buy the stock in the range of 347 target 350/352 Sl 344

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] GAIL On Daily chart we have seen that stock near its resistence level, expectation it will broke its resistense level. . Fresh Buying we have seen in last trading session . After analysis of derivative data its indicate that traders view is to buy the stock . Our recommendation is also Buy the stock in the range of 347 target 350/352 Sl 344

MACRO NEWS 

US stocks closed up on Wednesday afternoon, though well below their session highs as investors pulled back in the last few minutes of trading despite optimism about US-China trade relations and some reassuring signs in British politics.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 157.03 points, or 0.64 percent, to 24,527.27, the S&P 500 gained 14.29 points, or 0.54 percent, to 2,651.07 and the Nasdaq Composite added 66.48 points, or 0.95 percent, to 7,098.31.Asian shares and the pound moved higher on Thursday as investors breathed a sigh of relief after British Prime Minister Theresa May survived a no-confidence vote, and as China appeared to be taking more steps to meet US demands to open its marketsCountry's third largest software company HCL Technologies and NBFC major Bajaj Finance will be included in the 30share BSE Sensex effective December 24, 2018.Wipro and Adani Ports will be excluded from the index on the same day.



India's retail inflation eased to 2.3 percent in November, according to data released by the government on December 12. It stood at 4.88 percent in November last year and was 3.31 percent in October.Led by deflation in food items, softening crude oil prices and relatively stable domestic currency, the central bank kept key policy rates unchanged last week.

2. BHARAT FORG [FUTURE] On Daily chart we have seen that stock close above its pivot resistense level . Fresh buying we have seen in last trading session . After analysis of derivative data its indicate that traders view is to buy the stock . Our recommendation is also buy the stock in the range of 520 target 530/535 Sl 510

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,000 124.5

3,74,199

5,02,320

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,200

70.5

2,75,503

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,100

95

2,14,518

RELIANCE

CE

1,140

13.2

8,232

RELIANCE

CE

1,120 20.25

7,460

YESBANK

CE

180

10.5

7,193

MARUTI

CE

8,000

36.5

6,409

YESBANK

CE

200

3.6

6,404

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Indian Oil Corporation: Board approved the buyback of up to 29.7 crore shares at Rs 149 per share and declared an interim dividend of Rs 6.75 per equity share.

Lupin: Company received tentative US FDA approval for 3,04,520 Dimethyl Fumarate Delayed release capsules, 120 mg 2,05,860 and 240 mg, which are indicated for the treatment of patients with relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. 17,95,500 12,46,000 NIFTY FUTURE In last trading session we have seen the 82,44,250 Buying pressure in the market. It form green bullish candle on daily chart . We expect that upcoming week 2,74,200 from trading prospective is very volatile due to election 89,37,250 result proposed. Our view on market is bearish ,our recommendation is to sell the nifty future in the range of 2,83,500 10820 Target 10800/10780/10750 .Sell on rise strategy Open follow for trading & positional purpose.

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,500

84.1

3,65,908

6,01,340

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,600 112.85

2,19,372

2,95,920

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,400

63.5

2,17,697

3,39,980

RELIANCE

PE

1,100 17.75

6,272

7,15,500

YESBANK

PE

170

5.65

5,657

26,82,750

RELIANCE

PE

1,060

6.85

5,323

8,25,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,080

11

4,612

7,91,500

YESBANK

PE

160

3.15

3,767

31,81,500

Interest

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

34500

2394.79

30216

2145.64

353354

27268.61

249.1484

INDEX OPTIONS

985716

59260.18

973549

58726.61

862622

63992.47

533.5698

STOCK FUTURES

227853

12352.16

220326

11994.97

1479477

85851.84

357.1883

STOCK OPTIONS

124485

6963.96

122027

6820.90

153231

8576.84

143.0563 1282.9628

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

10882

10836

10793

10747

10704

BANKNIFTY

27058

27540

26335

25657

24451

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD ABOVE 31750 TGT 31800/31875 SL BELOW 31650 SELL GOLD BELOW 31500 TGT 31420/31375 SL ABOVE 31700

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Crude prices were lower on Friday, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) struggled to come up with an agreement on cutting oil production.West Texas Crude oil futures for January slumped 0.50% to $51.23 a barrel as of 4:54 AM ET (9:54 GMT), after falling nearly 3% on Thursday. Meanwhile Brent crudefutures, the benchmark for oil prices outside the U.S., dipped 0.45% to $59.78.The Thursday session of the OPEC meeting in Vienna ended without any decision on cutting oil supply, as Iran seeks an exemption from any cuts due to U.S. sanctions which have already weighed on its exports. Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Khalid Al Falih said on Friday that he is not confident a deal will be reached.Oil is down 30% since October amid worry over increased supply as global demand slows.Oil output from the world's biggest producers - OPEC, Russia and the United States - has increased by 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) since the end of 2017, to 56.38 million bpd, meeting almost 60 percent of global consumption.

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER ABOVE 38600 TGT 38675/38750 SL BELOW 38420 SELL SILVER BELOW 38400 TGT 38320/38260 SL ABOVE 38550

Pan Pacific Copper (PPC), Japan's top copper smelter, expects the price of the industrial metal to rise toward $7,000 a tonne in 2019, from about $6,168 now, backed by firm global demand and tighter supply, its executive said.PPC, which is also a miner controlled by JXTG Holdings 5020.T , expects global consumption and supply of refined copper to each increase by 2.2 percent in 2019 from this year, Takeshi Suwabe, Pan Pacific's general manager for marketing, told Reuters this week. "With support from physical buyers, copper prices are likely to try $6,400 level in the short term," he said.Three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange has fallen 15 percent this year amid worries that the months-long U.S.Sino trade war may hurt the global economy including China.But Suwabe said global copper sales have been solid despite the trade spat and the price will likely climb toward $7,000 - the level needed for miners to start developing new mines - in the latter part of 2019 to reflect a tighter market Russian energy minister Alexander Novak returned to Vienna on Friday after discussing OPEC with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow. said on Friday Russia would seek an agreement with OPEC and non-OPEC producers and a Russian Energy Ministry source said.

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM JAN ABOVE 8910 TARGET 8925/8940/8970 SL 8850 SELL GUARGUM ABOVE JAN 8850 TARGET 8835/8820/8790 SL 8910

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1830 5388 4544 6664 1923.5 4392.5

0.27 0.15 0.35 -2.76 -1.12 -0.42

Jeera

18235

0.49

4099 3373 6150

-0.32 -0.03 2.44

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA JAN ABOVE 6650 TARGET 6665/6680/6700 SL 6490 SELL DHANIYA JAN ABOVE 6610 TARGET 6595/6580/6560 SL 6670

Jeera prices rose 1.21 percent to Rs 18,895 per quintal in futures trade on December 7 as speculators created fresh positions, driven by pick-up in demand from stockists and overseas enquiries.Tight stocks position following restricted arrivals from the growing regions fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in January rose by Rs 225, or 1.21 per cent, to Rs 18,895 per quintal, with an open interest of 3,114 lots. Coriander prices fell 0.02 per cent to Rs 6,503 a quintal in futures market on december 7 as participants cut down positions amid muted domestic as well as exports demand against ample stocks position.Besides, rising arrivals from major producing belts and profit-booking at higher levels weighed on the sentiment.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, coriander prices for delivery in Jauary declined by Rs 1, or 0.02 per cent, to Rs 6,503 per quintal with an open interest of 28,460 lots. Chana prices declined 0.24 per cent to Rs 4,622 per quintal in futures trade on December 7 as speculators reduced exposure amid subdued demand at the spot market against adequate stocks position.At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in December fell by Rs 11, or 0.24 per cent, to Rs 4,622 per quintal, with an open interest of 29,390 lots.imilarly, the commodity for delivery in February declined by Rs 25, or 0.54 per cent, to Rs 4,645 per quintal in 9,250 lots. Marketmen said trimming of positions by traders on the back of easing demand in the physical market against adequate stocks position mainly influenced chana prices at futures trade.

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

72.3950 Yen

63.7250

Euro

81.8675 GBP

90.5558

USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR BUY USDINR NOV ABOVE 72.20 TGT 70.3 70.35 SL 72 SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 72.10 TGT 72 71.9 SL 72.3

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR NOV ABOVE 90.6 TGT 90.7 90.8 SL 90.4 SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 90.4 TGT 90.3 90.2 SL 90.6

The Indian rupee is trading higher by 35 paise at 70.55 per dollar on Friday versus previous close 70.90 per dollar. Rupee weakened sharply against the US dollar ahead of the important OPEC meeting that was scheduled last evening. In the second half of the session rupee rose after oil prices came under pressure following OPEC’s decision to delay a final decision on output cuts, awaiting support from non-OPEC heavyweight Russia. The declines came after crude slumped by almost 3% ending a meeting without announcing a decision to cut crude supply, instead preparing to debate the matter today, said Motilal Oswal. Indian bonds rose to over 8-month highs as rate hike fears faded after the central bank promised to keep buying government bonds to infuse liquidity, and also mentioned the probability of changing its rate stance if inflation risks do not mature. The 10-year benchmark bond yield fell to as low as 7.38 per cent, its lowest since April 11 and compared with its previous close of 7.44 per cent. The Indian rupee was weaker at 70.89 to the dollar tracking Asian peers, compared with 70.46 on Wednesday. Most Asian currencies fell on concerns over slowing global growth and a lack of resolution in the China-US trade war. India's central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in a decision that was widely expected as inflation has eased significantly, while it took steps to persuade banks to lend more in order to support an economy that has lost some momentum. India's central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, in a decision that was widely expected as inflation has eased significantly, while it took steps to persuade banks to lend more in order to support an economy that has lost some momentum. The monetary policy committee (MPC) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.50 percent on Wednesday as predicted by 64 of 70 analysts in a Reuters poll. The central bank also retained its "calibrated tightening" stance as expected.

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

14/12/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

JAN

BUY

6650

14/12/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

JAN

Sell

14/12/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

JAN

14/12/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

14/12/18

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6665/6680/67 00

6490

NOT EXECUTED

6610

6595/6575/65 60

6670

NOT EXECUTED

BUY

8910

8925/8940/89 70

8850

TARGET HIT

JAN

SELL

8850

8835/8820/87 90

8910

NOT EXECUTED

MCX GOLD

JAN

BUY

31750

31800/31875

31650

NOT EXECUTED

14/12/18

MCX GOLD

JAN

SELL

31500

31420/31375

31700

NOT EXECUTED

14/12/18

MCX SILVER

MAR

BUY

38600

38675/38750

38420

NOT EXECUTED

14/12/18

MCX SILVER

MAR

SELL

38400

38320/38260

38200

NOT EXECUTED

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

14/12/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

10820

10800/10780/ 10750

10920

TARGET HIT

14/12/18

Gail

FUTURE

BUY

347

350/352

344

OPEN

14/12/18

BHARAT FORG

FUTURE

BUY

520

530/535

510

SL HIT

14/12/18

DCB

CASH

SELL

157

158/159

154

TARGET HIT

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Special Report

17-Dec-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIO US

MONDAY, DEC. 3 9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI

Nov.

--

55.4

10 am

Construction spending

Oct.

0.3%

0.0%

TUESDAY, DEC. 4

TUESDAY, DEC. 4

TUESDAY, TUESDAY, DEC. 4 DEC. 4

TUESDA TUESDAY, DEC. Y, DEC. 4 4

WEDNESD AY, DEC. 5

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 5

WEDNESD WEDNESDAY, WEDNESDAY, DEC. 5 AY, DEC. 5 DEC. 5

WEDNE SDAY, DEC. 5

8:15 am

ADP employment

Nov.

---

227,000

8:30 am

Productivity

Q3

2.3%

2.2%

9:45 am

Markit services PMI

Nov.

--

55.4

10 am

ISM nonmanufacturing index

Nov.

59.8%

60.3%

--

--

--

-THURSD AY, DEC. 6

10 am

Varies

8:30 am

10 am

9:45 am

9:45 am 2 pm

Quarterly services survey

Markit manufacturing index flash

Nov.

Markit Beigeservices book index flash

Nov.

Q3

--

55.7

--

54.8

THURSDAY THURSDAY, DEC. 6 , DEC. 6

THURSDA THURSDAY, DEC. 6 Y, DEC. 6

THURSDAY, DEC. 6

8:30 am

12/1

225,000

Weekly jobless claims

234,000

8:30 am 10 am

The

Factory orders

Oct.

-2.0%

0.7%

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