Special Report 17-July-2018
Global markets at a glance The S&P 500 ended slightly lower on Monday following a drop in oil prices that weighed on energy shares and offset a jump in financials as Bank of America's results reinforced expectations of a strong US earnings season. Netflix shares ended the session up 1.2 percent but dropped more than 14 percent after the bell when it reported results. The company missed Wall Street forecasts for U.S. and international subscribers.
World Indices Index
Value
% Change
24,924.89
0.91
S&P500
2,804.25
0.21
NASDAQ FTSE100
7,823.92 7,651.33
1.39 0.78
22,510.87 28,633.31
1.43 0.53
DJI
NIKKEI HANG SENG
Top Gainers Nasdaq e-mini futures volume jumped after Netflix's results and sold off sharply to end the session down 1 percent. Asian stocks sagged on Tuesday, weighed by a sharp decline in crude oil prices as Libyan ports reopened, while the dollar was on the defensive ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's first congressional testimony. Overnight on Wall Street, the Dow edged up 0.2 percent but the S&P 500 lost 0.1 percent as energy shares were hit by the drop in oil that offset a jump in financials.MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.1 pct lower following two sessions of gains. Previous day Roundup After a flat market opening, bears took charge of Dalal Street in the morning trade and tightened their grip as the day progressed Monday. The Nifty50 broke psychological 11,000-mark and closed near day's low on account of profit booking after a more than 2 percent rally seen last week, forming 'Bearish Belt Hold' pattern on the daily chart. The Nifty50 after opening flat caught into bear trap and hit an intraday low 10,926.25. The index remained sharply lower throughout the session and closed 82 points lower at 10,936.90.According to Pivot charts, the key support level is placed at 10,902.17, followed by 10,867.53. If the index starts moving upwards, key resistance levels to watch out are 10,995.47 and 11,054.13. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-74.65pts], Consumption[-39.45pts],PSE[-36.40pts],CPSE[26.95pts],Energy[-203.70pts],FMCG[-58.20pts],Auto[167.90pts],Pharma[-377.60pts],IT[82.15pts],Metal[118.50pts],Realty[-8.85 pts], Fin Serv sector[-74.95pts].
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
Tech Mahindra
657.30
16.25
2.53
NTPC
155.60
2.65
1.73
Infosys
1,332.85
15.45
1.17
HDFC
1,991.20
18.70
0.95
Wipro
283.10
2.25
0.80
CMP
Change
% Chg
2,093.95 519.25 818.15 533.95
-225.90 -39.35 -47.45 -25.80
-9.74 -7.04 -5.48 -4.61
252.10
-11.50
-4.36
Top Losers Company
Dr Reddys Labs Tata Steel Lupin Sun Pharma Tata Motors
Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
ASIANPAINT
1367.8
-10.8
-0.79
BAJAJFINSV
6324.45
-68.45
-1.08
BAJFINANCE
2468.6
2.4
0.1
BRITANNIA
6475.1
68.9
1.06
CIGNITITEC
395.15
8.85
2.24
Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol
3IINFOTECH ABAN ACCELYA ADORWELD ADVANIHOTR
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
3.75 111.5 1114.75 292.1 51.1
-0.2 -6 -14.85 -11.05 -3.1
-5.33 -5.38 -1.33 -3.78 -6.07
Indian Indices Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
10936.90
-82.00
-0.74
SENSEX
36323.77
-217.86
-0.60
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Special Report 17-July-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.BEML [FUTURE ] This script made a spinning top candle on 29 june then it started moving upward but just at its resistance level of 852 it has made a another spinning top candle with a bearish confirmation candle after that it moved continuosly in a downtrend here we can short around 780-782 tgt 770-760 sl above 790.
2.DLF [FUTURE] As per the trend this stock is moving in a downtrend 180.40 was the earlier support level below which it has closed here sell on low would be good opportunity so we advice to SELL DLF FUTURE AROUND 178-177 TGT 174-170 SL ABOVE 180.
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] EDELWEISS [CASH] From the daily chart its clear that this is getting a support at its 200 day SMA here it has rebounded in the intraday trend so we advice to BUY EDELWEISS AROUND 282-281 TGT 288-295 SL BELOW 278
MACRO NEW Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a flat to negative opening for the broader index in India, a loss of 5.5 points or 0.05 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,943- level on the Singaporean Exchange. Oil prices slumped more than 4 percent on Monday, with Brent reaching a three-month low, as Libyan ports reopened and traders eyed potential supply increases by Russia and other producers.Brent crude futures fell USD 3.49 to settle at USD 71.84 a barrel, a 4.63 percent loss, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell USD 2.95 to settle at USD 68.06 a barrel, a 4.15 percent loss. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday projected a growth rate of 7.3 percent in 2018 and 7.5 percent in 2019 for India as against 6.7 percent in 2017, making it the fastest growing country among major economies.“India's growth rate is expected to rise from 6.7 percent in 2017 to 7.3 percent in 2018 and 7.5 percent in 2019, as drags from the currency exchange initiative and the introduction of the goods and services tax fade,” said the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) update. Markets regulator Sebi yesterday extended deadline till September-end for registrar and share transfer agents (RTAs) to seek PAN as well bank details of shareholders holding securities in physical form. The last date has been extended after taking into consideration, representations from various quarters, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) said in a circular.
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Special Report 17-July-2018
STOCKS IN NEWS
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
CE
11,000
54.3
2,38,598
39,60,375
BANKNIFTY
CE
27,000
40.2
2,31,567
9,56,040
NIFTY
CE
11,100 24.05
1,78,006
32,64,675
BANKNIFTY
CE
26,900 63.55
1,51,500
5,95,800
INFY
CE
1,400
7.35
23,104
17,76,000
INFY
CE
1,380
11
17,455
9,36,600
INFY
CE
1,360 16.95
17,219
10,03,800
INFY
CE
1,340
12,037
6,25,800
25
MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol
Optio Strike n Price Type
NIFTY
2,83,500
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
PE
11,000 108.2
1,98,484
29,20,800
BANKNIFTY
PE
26,700
120
1,97,173
2,99,400
BANKNIFTY
PE
26,800 165.05
1,74,233
2,10,040
NIFTY
PE
10,900
63.1
1,73,565
35,57,550
INFY
PE
1,300
10.2
16,810
13,14,600
INFY
PE
1,320
15.6
8,989
4,82,400
INFY
PE
1,340 23.95
8,644
3,10,200
INFY
PE
1,280
8,621
6,34,200
7
Cyient: Q1 net profit at Rs 82.5 crore; revenue at Rs 1,097 crore
Fortis Healthcare approves binding investment proposal from IHH Healthcare
NIFTY FUTURE
The Nifty50 after opening above psychological 11,000mark hit a fresh five-month high following strong global cues, but saw some profit booking in later part of the session on Thursday.The index formed a ‘Shooting Star’ kind of pattern on the daily charts. Traders turned cautious ahead of June retail inflation and May industrial output data due later in the day.The Nifty50 after opening at 11,006.95 rallied 130 points to hit a fresh five -month high of 11,078.30, but traders preferred to book some profits in later part of the session. It closed 74.90 points higher at 11,023.20 and is 148 points away from its all-time high of 11,171.55 seen in January. .We recommend to SELL NIFTY FUTURE AROUND 1092010900 TGT 10850-10800 SL ABOVE 10970.
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY
SELL
No. of Contracts
Amount in Crores
INDEX FUTURES
27851
2530.04
22124
1934.93
INDEX OPTIONS
560728
50892.25
541272
STOCK FUTURES
196785
12709.00
STOCK OPTIONS
140691
9880.55
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts
Amount in Crores
NET AMOUNT
293319
24213.64
595.1159
49192.22
769573
65196.18
1700.0339
203863
13173.88
1150917
80011.29
-464.8833
142447
9950.89
103972
7049.06
-70.3398 1759.9267
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
11053.00
10994.00
10960.00
10901.00
10867.00
BANKNIFTY
27049.00
26864.00
26753.00
26568.00
26457.00
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Special Report 17-July-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD AUG FUT ABOVE 30230 TGT 30280 30320 SL BELOW 30180 SELL GOLD AUG FUT BELOW 30000 TGT 29150 29100 SL ABOVE 30150
SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 39250 TGT 39300 39350 SL BELOW 39200 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 38820 TGT 38780 38720 SL ABOVE 38870
COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold slipped from a one week high as a recovery in US equities clubbed with cues from latest Fed minutes weighed on the metal after prices edged up from a seven month low. The US Federal Reserve is likely to go ahead with interest rate hikes despite mounting concerns about a possible trade war, according to the minutes of the Fed's June meeting. At that meeting, the Fed raised rates and projected four rate increases in 2018 instead of three previously planned. The central bank maintained its outlook for three rate hikes in 2019. MCX Gold futures ended around Rs 30560 per 10 grams after a modest recovery. Local demand is expected to edge up in second half of the year following the current economic momentum though a good monsoon is very much required to sustain rural earnings. Gold has not gained much prominence despite this mayhem of global trade front. Meanwhile, over the past decade, the technology sector has accounted for more than 380 tonnes of gold demand annually, a significant figure in itself and almost 13% ahead of central bank net purchases during the same period. Yet gold’s role in this vibrant and growing industry is broadly unrecognised and often misunderstood, according to Aram Shishmanian, CEO of World Gold Council (WGC). Copper snapped back sharply on Monday from near oneyear lows hit in the session, as a weak dollar forced short holders to cover positions even amid simmering trade war tension. London Metal Exchange copper rallied by 1.6 percent to $6,383.50 after prices slumped to $6,221.50 a tonne on Friday, which was the weakest since late July 2017. There is still huge tightness between the July-August copper contract, suggesting shorts may have to deliver into warehouses in the next week if they can. Indian Copper is set to rebound higher in today's opening session. The prices were down at Rs 431 per kg last week. Expectations for a jump towards Rs 435 per kg cannot to ruled out in Copper. The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in June, but steady wage gains pointed to moderate inflation pressures that should keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases this year. The global economy is starting to show signs of strain from the ??? America First??? push of U.S President Donald Trump who will hear renewed pleas to step back from a broader trade war when he visits Europe in the coming week.
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Special Report 17-July-2018
RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 9135 TGT 8570 8670 SL BELOW 8380 SELL GUARGUM BELOW 8840 TGT 8300 8200 SL ABOVE 8510
NCDEX INDICES Index
Value
% Change
Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT
1559.5 4480 4181 4580 1720 4149
0.87 0.07 3.98 -1.44 -1.69 3.6
Jeera
18520
0.43
4100 3500 6980
0.54 -1.05 0.32
Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric
USDA forecasts that China's soybean imports will increase to 100.5 MMT in MY18/19 from the estimated 97 MMT in MY17/18. This forecast, is 2.5 MMT lower than USDA's June forecast. Due to the combination of the moderate increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soybean meal use, a net growth of 3.5 MMT of soybean imports in MY18/19 is expected to meet the Chinese demand growth for protein meals.
CORINDER BUY DHANIYA AUG ABOVE 4740 TGT 4800 4850 SL BELOW 4700 SELL DHANIYA BELOW 4600 TGT 4550 4500 SL ABOVE 4650
U.S. soybean exports to China continue to face strong competition from soybean exports from South America. Excessive soybean stocks and a fall in the soybean price in Brazil attributed to the 14.2 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports to China in the first half of MY17/18. This is significantly higher than the 5.2 MMT during the same period in MY16/17. Despite China's net growth of over 2 MMT of soybean imports in the first half of MY17/18, total soybean imports from the United States fell to 24.4 MMT in this period, down from the 31.6 MMT in the previous year. Chinese importers note that Brazilian soybeans have a one percent higher protein content than U.S. soybeans. Importers were previously willing to pay a slightly higher price for soybeans with a higher protein content, but with the drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans, exports are now surging As per official data, Ukraine supplied some 1 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in May 2017/18. This was down 10% from April (1.1 MMT) but up 2% from May 2016/17 (986.8 KMT). In July-May 2017/18, wheat exports totaled 16.3 MMT, or 3% less than in the same period in MY 2016/17. Ukrainian wheat shipments to the European Union and Indonesia grew substantially in the current season. In the period under review, exports to Indonesia increased to 2.1 MMT that was 31% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17.
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Special Report 17-July-2018
RBI Reference Rate Currency
Rate Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
68.6400 Yen
61.0350
Euro
79.8525 GBP
90.1475
USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 68.80 TGT 69.00/69.15 SL BELOW 68.65 SELL USDINR BELOW 68.50 TGT 68.35/67.40 SL ABOVE 68.65
Staging a mild recovery from a record closing low, the rupee edged up by 8 paise to end at 68.87 against the US currency, largely tracking gains in key Asian units amid weak dollar tone overseas. The domestic bourses too enjoyed a healthy weekend run. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting minutes and the release of better-than-expected US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI numbers did little to influence the home currency even as investors braced for a potential interest rate hikes near term. Though, the rupee briefly slipped below 69 levels in midmorning deals but managed to recoup losses on apparent intervention by the Reserve Bank, coupled with greenback selling by exporters. The Indian rupee hit a record closing low of 68.95 on Thursday following a panic demand for the US dollar coupled with savage capital flight worries.
GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91.50 TGT 91.65/91.80 SL BELOW 90.35 SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.60 TGT 90.50/89.35 SL ABOVE 90.75
Meanwhile, fears over a slowdown in the country's economy in the midst of surging international crude oil prices and widening current account deficits predominantly kept the forex sentiment highly nervous. Meanwhile, the latest FOMC June meeting minutes showed that policy makers remain wary over intensifying trade disputes but were still on track for gradual monetary policy tightening cycle. Worrying development on escalation of trade conflict between the world's two biggest economic powers with the US President's latest salvo were largely weighed on the currency and financial markets worldwide with investors on edge awaiting the next developments. The response among major currencies, however, was fairly limited. The Chinese government retaliated immediately against US President Donald Trump's USD 34 billion tariff package with a simultaneous set of counter measures and accused Washington of starting "the largest trade war in history".
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Special Report 17-July-2018
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
FORECAST
PREVIOUS
--
54.6
0.0%
1.8%
MONDAY, JULY 2 9;45 am
Markit manufacturing PMI (final)
June 10 am
10 am
Construction spending
May
TUESDAY, JULY 3
TUESDAY, JULY 3
TUESDAY , JULY 3
TUESDAY, JULY 3
TUESDAY, JULY TUESDAY, 3 JULY 3
Varies 10 am
Factory orders
May
-0.1%
WEDNESD AY, JULY 4
WEDNESDAY, JULY 4
WEDNES WEDNESDAY, JULY DAY, 4 JULY 4
THURSDA Y, JULY 5
THURSDAY, JULY 5
THURSD AY, JULY THURSDAY, JULY 5 5
8:15 am
ADP employment
8:30 am 9:45 am
-0.8%
WEDNESDAY, WEDNESD JULY 4 AY, JULY 4
THURSDAY, JULY 5
THURSDA Y, JULY 5
June
--
178,000
Weekly jobless claims
6/23
224,000
227,000
Markit services PMI (final)
June
56.5
10 am 2 pm
FOMC minutes
Disclaimer
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
FRIDAY, JULY 6
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