Special-Report-19-JULY-2018-epic-research

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Special Report 19-July-2018

Global markets at a glance The S&P 500 rose to its highest in more than five months and the Dow climbed for a fifth session on Wednesday as solid earnings boosted financial and industrial stocks and reinforced expectations for a strong second-quarter reporting season. Upbeat earnings from railroad CSX Corp and airline United Continental helped lift the S&P 500 industrials index , which gained 1.1 percent and was among the day's bestperforming sectors. The Dow Jones Transport Average jumped 2.3 percent, its biggest daily advance in three months. Although it is still early in the reporting period, estimates for the U.S. earnings season are improving as more companies release results. Asian shares made early gains on Thursday as upbeat Wall Street earnings supported global investor sentiment, although trade war jitters pushed China’s offshore yuan to a fresh one-year low.The dollar retreated from a threeweek high as investors cashed in on gains the currency made after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s two-day testimony reinforced a strong economic outlook. Previous day Roundup The Nifty after opening at 11,060.20 moved close to last week's high to hit an intraday high of 11,076.20, but selling pressure in afternoon dragged it below the psychological 11,000-mark to hit day's low of 10,956.30.The index closed 27.50 points lower at 10,980.50, but managed to hold its 5DEMA of 10,972. The Nifty Bank index closed at 26,880.9 on Wednesday. The important Pivot level, which will act as crucial support for the index, is placed at 26,747.8, followed by 26,614.7. On the upside, key resistance levels are placed at 27,100.6, followed by 27,320.3. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[-25.05pts], Consumption[-34.25pts],PSE[3.65pts],CPSE[8.45pts],Energy [44.50pts],FMCG[-279.90pts],Auto[-157.05pts],Pharma[40.45pts],IT[13.40pts],Metal[-101.55pts],Realty[-6.25 pts], Fin Serv sector[-92.50pts].

World Indices Index

Value

% Change

25,199.29

0.32

S&P500

2,815.00

-0.02

NASDAQ FTSE100

7,855.12 7,676.28

-0.01 0.65

22,832.44 28,117.15

0.17 0.01

DJI

NIKKEI HANG SENG

Top Gainers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

ONGC

160.30

4.15

2.66

BPCL

402.35

9.70

2.47

HPCL

286.10

4.80

1.71

Asian Paints

1,393.00

16.75

1.22

HDFC

2,009.45

20.15

1.01

Top Losers Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

Tata Steel

Vedanta

504.25 50.00 212.40 203.70

-28.10 -2.45 -7.10 -6.40

-5.28 -4.67 -3.23 -3.05

UPL

556.85

-14.15

-2.48

Idea Cellular Hindalco

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

1376.25

12.8

0.93

1066.8

-5.8

-0.54

BAJAJFINSV

6346.05

5.95

0.09

BAJFINANCE

2469.15

25.85

1.05

562.75

36.25

6.44

ASIANPAINT ASTRAL

BANDHANBNK

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

ABCAPITAL ABFRL ACCELYA ADORWELD ADSL

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

127.6 135.85 1099.95 279.95 15.25

-3.4 -2 -32.95 -5.65 -0.3

-2.66 -1.47 -3 -2.02 -1.97

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10980.50

-27.50

-0.25

SENSEX

36373.44

-146.52

-0.40

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Special Report 19-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1.ASHOKLEY [FUTURE ] This particular counter is getting a support at the level of 110.60,it shows a bounce back from its support level ever time after a major profit booking here you can buy with a strict stoploss of 110.60 TGT 114-118 SL BELOW 108.

2.HINDPETRO [FUTURE] The stock has given a breakout above its resistance level of 283 but just below its resistance level of 288 it has made a doji candle here we can expect reversal so we advice to SELL HINDPETRO AROUND 282.50-281 TGT 278-274 SL ABOVE 284

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] EDELWEISS [CASH] From the daily chart its clear that this is getting a support at its 200 day SMA here it has rebounded in the intraday trend so we advice to BUY EDELWEISS AROUND 282-281 TGT 288-295 SL BELOW 278

MACRO NEW  Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a positive opening for the broader index in India, a gain of 30 points or 0.27 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 11,012level on the Singaporean Exchange.  Manufacturers in every one of the Federal Reserve’s 12 districts worried about the impact of tariffs, a Federal Reserve report said on Wednesday, even as the US economy continued to expand at a moderate to modest pace.The latest snapshot of the health of the economy, derived from the central bank’s discussions with business contacts around the country, echoed anecdotes from lawmakers in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday of the impact in their districts of tariffs during a two-day hearing with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.  Oil prices rose on Wednesday after US government data indicated bullish demand for gasoline and distillates, which overshadowed a surprise build in US crude inventories and US crude oil production hitting 11 million bpd for the first time.  As many as 24 companies are likely to report June quarter numbers today including names like Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, Kotak Mahindra Bank, RBL Bank and ABB among others.  The initial public offer of women's apparel maker TCNS Clothing was subscribed 10 percent on the first day of bidding yesterday. The IPO, to raise Rs 1,125-crore, received bids for 10,75,880 shares against the total issue size of 1,09,99,828 shares, data available with the NSE showed.

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Special Report 19-July-2018

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

5,00,320

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,000 143.05

3,61,755

NIFTY

CE

11,000

87.2

2,82,208

BANKNIFTY

CE

26,900 204.9

2,79,240

3,10,040

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,100

93.7

2,65,570

4,24,520

RELIANCE

CE

1,100 18.15

9,739

33,37,000

HINDUNILVR

CE

1,800

4.4

8,372

18,15,000

FEDERALBNK

CE

90

2.85

8,274

44,16,500

ASHOKLEY

CE

140

1.45

8,045 1,21,80,000

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST

Mindtree: Its Q1 net profit is down 13% sequentially at Rs 158 crore.

JK Tyre: The firm reported a profit of Rs 64.1 crore in Q1 against a loss of Rs 108 crore during the previous year.

35,32,125 NIFTY FUTURE

2,83,500

Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,700

21.9

2,95,146

6,16,520

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,800

33

2,83,120

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,600

15.9

2,38,328

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,500 11.75

2,28,511

HINDUNILVR

PE

1,700

27.2

5,806

RELIANCE

PE

1,060

8.95

4,760

RELIANCE

PE

1,080 14.95

4,699

6,77,120 The Nifty after opening at 11,060.20 moved close to last week's high to hit an intraday high of 11,076.20, but 5,80,240 selling pressure in afternoon dragged it below the 5,06,120 psychological 11,000-mark to hit day's low of 2,23,800 10,956.30.The index closed 27.50 points lower at 10,980.50, but managed to hold its 5-DEMA of 14,16,000 10,972.We recommend to BUY NIFTY FUTURE AROUND 15,05,000 10960-10980 TGT 11030-11070 SL ABOVE 10920.

INFY

PE

1,300

4,397

10,78,800

10

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY

SELL

No. of Contracts

Amount in Crores

INDEX FUTURES

42179

3779.98

38228

3422.04

INDEX OPTIONS

1289768

123155.19

1267652

STOCK FUTURES

211269

13485.03

STOCK OPTIONS

147254

10223.89

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

306185

25506.34

357.9336

121528.64

855089

72874.80

1626.5494

220697

14086.68

1148770

80118.67

-601.6483

147133

10208.88

118570

8148.46

15.0112 1397.8459

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

11124.00

11052.00

11004.00

10932.00

10884.00

BANKNIFTY

27288.00

27148.00

26900.00

26760.00

26512.00

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Special Report 19-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GOLD AUG FUT ABOVE 29780 TGT 29810 29840 SL BELOW 29750 SELL GOLD AUG FUT BELOW 30630 TGT 30600 30570 SL ABOVE 30660

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: BUY SILVER SEP FUT ABOVE 38540 TGT 39600 39650 SL BELOW 38500 SELL SILVER SEP FUT BELOW 38120 TGT 38070 38020 SL ABOVE 38170

COMMODITY ROUNDUP COMEX Gold slipped from a one week high as a recovery in US equities clubbed with cues from latest Fed minutes weighed on the metal after prices edged up from a seven month low. The US Federal Reserve is likely to go ahead with interest rate hikes despite mounting concerns about a possible trade war, according to the minutes of the Fed's June meeting. At that meeting, the Fed raised rates and projected four rate increases in 2018 instead of three previously planned. The central bank maintained its outlook for three rate hikes in 2019. MCX Gold futures ended around Rs 30560 per 10 grams after a modest recovery. Local demand is expected to edge up in second half of the year following the current economic momentum though a good monsoon is very much required to sustain rural earnings. Gold has not gained much prominence despite this mayhem of global trade front. Meanwhile, over the past decade, the technology sector has accounted for more than 380 tonnes of gold demand annually, a significant figure in itself and almost 13% ahead of central bank net purchases during the same period. Yet gold’s role in this vibrant and growing industry is broadly unrecognised and often misunderstood, according to Aram Shishmanian, CEO of World Gold Council (WGC). Copper snapped back sharply on Monday from near oneyear lows hit in the session, as a weak dollar forced short holders to cover positions even amid simmering trade war tension. London Metal Exchange copper rallied by 1.6 percent to $6,383.50 after prices slumped to $6,221.50 a tonne on Friday, which was the weakest since late July 2017. There is still huge tightness between the July-August copper contract, suggesting shorts may have to deliver into warehouses in the next week if they can. Indian Copper is set to rebound higher in today's opening session. The prices were down at Rs 431 per kg last week. Expectations for a jump towards Rs 435 per kg cannot to ruled out in Copper. The U.S. economy created more jobs than expected in June, but steady wage gains pointed to moderate inflation pressures that should keep the Federal Reserve on a path of gradual interest rate increases this year. The global economy is starting to show signs of strain from the ??? America First??? push of U.S President Donald Trump who will hear renewed pleas to step back from a broader trade war when he visits Europe in the coming week.

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Special Report 19-July-2018

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 9135 TGT 8570 8670 SL BELOW 8380 SELL GUARGUM BELOW 8840 TGT 8300 8200 SL ABOVE 8510

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Barley Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

1565.5 4490 4313 4576 1817 4306

1.16 1.1 3.98 0.97 3.8 2.99

Jeera

18710

1.93

4198 3550 7050

2.99 0.48 1.73

Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

USDA forecasts that China's soybean imports will increase to 100.5 MMT in MY18/19 from the estimated 97 MMT in MY17/18. This forecast, is 2.5 MMT lower than USDA's June forecast. Due to the combination of the moderate increase in domestic soybean production, together with the slowdown in growth of soybean meal use, a net growth of 3.5 MMT of soybean imports in MY18/19 is expected to meet the Chinese demand growth for protein meals. CORINDER BUY DHANIYA AUG ABOVE 4740 TGT 4800 4850 SL BELOW 4700 SELL DHANIYA BELOW 4600 TGT 4550 4500 SL ABOVE 4650

U.S. soybean exports to China continue to face strong competition from soybean exports from South America. Excessive soybean stocks and a fall in the soybean price in Brazil attributed to the 14.2 MMT of Brazilian soybean exports to China in the first half of MY17/18. This is significantly higher than the 5.2 MMT during the same period in MY16/17. Despite China's net growth of over 2 MMT of soybean imports in the first half of MY17/18, total soybean imports from the United States fell to 24.4 MMT in this period, down from the 31.6 MMT in the previous year. Chinese importers note that Brazilian soybeans have a one percent higher protein content than U.S. soybeans. Importers were previously willing to pay a slightly higher price for soybeans with a higher protein content, but with the drop in the price of Brazilian soybeans, exports are now surging As per official data, Ukraine supplied some 1 MMT of wheat to foreign markets in May 2017/18. This was down 10% from April (1.1 MMT) but up 2% from May 2016/17 (986.8 KMT). In July-May 2017/18, wheat exports totaled 16.3 MMT, or 3% less than in the same period in MY 2016/17. Ukrainian wheat shipments to the European Union and Indonesia grew substantially in the current season. In the period under review, exports to Indonesia increased to 2.1 MMT that was 31% more than in the whole of MY 2016/17.

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Special Report 19-July-2018

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

68.5350 Yen

60.9625

Euro

80.3775 GBP

90.5900

USD/INR BUY USDINR ABOVE 68.80 TGT 69.00/69.15 SL BELOW 68.65 SELL USDINR BELOW 68.50 TGT 68.35/67.40 SL ABOVE 68.65

Staging a mild recovery from a record closing low, the rupee edged up by 8 paise to end at 68.87 against the US currency, largely tracking gains in key Asian units amid weak dollar tone overseas. The domestic bourses too enjoyed a healthy weekend run. The outcome of the latest FOMC meeting minutes and the release of better-than-expected US ISM nonmanufacturing PMI numbers did little to influence the home currency even as investors braced for a potential interest rate hikes near term. Though, the rupee briefly slipped below 69 levels in midmorning deals but managed to recoup losses on apparent intervention by the Reserve Bank, coupled with greenback selling by exporters.

GBP/INR BUY GBPINR ABOVE 91.50 TGT 91.65/91.80 SL BELOW 90.35 SELL GBPINR BELOW 90.60 TGT 90.50/89.35 SL ABOVE 90.75

The Indian rupee hit a record closing low of 68.95 on Thursday following a panic demand for the US dollar coupled with savage capital flight worries. Meanwhile, fears over a slowdown in the country's economy in the midst of surging international crude oil prices and widening current account deficits predominantly kept the forex sentiment highly nervous. Meanwhile, the latest FOMC June meeting minutes showed that policy makers remain wary over intensifying trade disputes but were still on track for gradual monetary policy tightening cycle. Worrying development on escalation of trade conflict between the world's two biggest economic powers with the US President's latest salvo were largely weighed on the currency and financial markets worldwide with investors on edge awaiting the next developments. The response among major currencies, however, was fairly limited. The Chinese government retaliated immediately against US President Donald Trump's USD 34 billion tariff package with a simultaneous set of counter measures and accused Washington of starting "the largest trade war in history".

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Special Report 19-July-2018

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

18/07/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

OCT

BUY

18/07/18

NCDEX DHANIYA

OCT

18/07/18

NCDEX GUARGUM5

18/07/18

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

4740

4800 4850

4700

NOT EXECUTED

SELL

4600

4550 4500

4650

NOT EXECUTED

AUG

BUY

9135

8570 8670

8380

NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX GUARGUM5

AUG

SELL

8840

8300 8200

8510

SL TRIGGERED

18/07/18

MCX GOLD

AUG

BUY

30520

30570 30620

30480

SL TRIGGERED

18/07/18

MCX GOLD

AUG

SELL

30240

30200 30150

30300

TGT HIT

18/07/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

BUY

39750

39800 39850

39700

TGT HIT

18/07/18

MCX SILVER

SEP

SELL

39200

39150 39100

39250

SL TRIGGERED

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ OPTION

Strategy

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

18/07/18

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

10960-10980

11030-11070

10920

OPEN

18/07/18

BEML

FUTURE

SELL

780-782

770-760

790

TGT HIT

18/07/18

DLF

FUTURE

SELL

178-177

174-170

180

TGT HIT

18/07/18

EDELWEISS

CASH

BUY

282-281

288-295

278

NOT EXECUTED

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Special Report 19-July-2018

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS TIME (ET)

REPORT

PERIOD

ACTUAL

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

--

54.6

0.0%

1.8%

MONDAY, JULY 2 9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI (final)

June 10 am

10 am

Construction spending

May

TUESDAY, JULY 3

TUESDAY, JULY 3

TUESDAY , JULY 3

TUESDAY, JULY 3

TUESDAY, JULY TUESDAY, 3 JULY 3

Varies 10 am

Factory orders

May

-0.1%

WEDNESD AY, JULY 4

WEDNESDAY, JULY 4

WEDNES WEDNESDAY, JULY DAY, 4 JULY 4

THURSDA Y, JULY 5

THURSDAY, JULY 5

THURSD AY, JULY THURSDAY, JULY 5 5

8:15 am

ADP employment

8:30 am 9:45 am

-0.8%

WEDNESDAY, WEDNESD JULY 4 AY, JULY 4

THURSDAY, JULY 5

THURSDA Y, JULY 5

June

--

178,000

Weekly jobless claims

6/23

224,000

227,000

Markit services PMI (final)

June

56.5

10 am 2 pm

FOMC minutes

Disclaimer

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

FRIDAY, JULY 6

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