special report 21 feb 2019 Epic Research

Page 1

Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

Global markets at a glance

World Indices

US stocks ended higher on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting reaffirmed for investors that the US central bank would be “patient” with respect to further interest rate hikes.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 63.12 points, or 0.24 percent, to 25,954.44, the S&P 500 gained 4.94 points, or 0.18 percent, to 2,784.7 and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.30 points, or 0.03 percent, to 7,489.07.

Index

Value

% Change

DJI

26036

+0.28

S&P500

2784

+0.18

NASDAQ

7489

+0.03

FTSE100

7228

+0.69

21497 28711

+0.31 +0.69

Asian shares held near 4-1/2-month highs on Thursday after US Federal Reserve minutes affirmed it would be “patient” on interest rate rises and risk assets got a lift from hopes of further progress in US-China trade talks.MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan were steady in early trade, hovering just off their highest since early October. Australian shares gave up early gains, last trading 0.1 percent lower, but the Australian dollar rallied in the wake of strong full-time jobs figure.Trends on SGX Nifty indicate a negative opening for the broader index in India, a fall of 37 points or 0.34 percent. Nifty futures were trading around 10,730 - level on the Singaporean Exchange.

Top Gainers

PREVIOUS DAY ROUNDOFF Indian equity markets continued to trade with a positive bias after opening gap up on Wednesday. The Nifty was up 71 points at 10,676, while Bank Nifty was up 173 points at 26,856 in early afternoon trade.Small-cap and mid-cap stocks continued to witness buying and rose 0.66% and 0.56%, respectively.Among the sectoral indices, Nifty Metal and Nifty PSU Bank were the top performers, up 2.18% and 1.06%, respectively.Meanwhile, heavy selling pressure was seen in stocks of Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group (ADAG) with the likes of Reliance Capital and RCom dropping 7.4% and 6.67%, respectively, as the Supreme Court held Anil Ambani guilty of contempt in the Ericsson case.

NIKKEI HANG SENG Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

652

37.7

6.14

Vedanta

160.2

7.1

4.64

Tata Steel

493.7

22.75

4.83

Adani Ports

354.6

15.05

4.43

Hindalco

193.9

7.35

3.94

CMP

Change

% Chg

446 2,528.00 2,629.00 1,736.00 1,479.25

-0.45 -8.9 -7.85 -1.95 -1.25

-0.1 -0.35 -0.3 -0.11 -0.08

Indiabulls Hsg

Top Losers Company

Zee Entertain Dr Reddys Labs Hero Motocorp HUL IndusInd Bank

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH Symbol

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

AAVAS

945

37.1

4.09

2,994.85

-1.1

-0.04

BALRAMCHIN

128.2

-2.5

-1.99

CANTABIL

209.8

14.55

7.61

GOLDBEES

3,001.50

14.85

0.5

Prev. Close

Change

%Chg

1.3

0.05

3.7

ADHUNIKIND

35.5

0.4

1.01

AIFL ARIES ARIHANTSUP

10.05 69.4 45.5

0.5 -1.5 2.25

4.74 -2.1 4.81

AXISGOLD

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW Symbol

Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial in dices performed as follow; Commodities[+74.8pts], Consumption[+23.65pts],PSE[+61.7pts],CPSE [+43pts],Energy[+268.10pts],FMCG[+43.7pts],Auto [+48.10pts],Pharma[+53.65pts],IT[+275.95pts],Metal [+75.30pts],Realty[+0.60pts], Fin Serv sector[+129.60pts].

ABGSHIP

Indian Indices Company

CMP

Change

% Chg

NIFTY

10742

+137.9

+1.30

SENSEX

35756

+403.65

+1.14

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]

STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]

1. Titan [FUTURE ]

REPCOHOME

TITAN -Titan is trading above its 100 DEMA .Our view is that stock may bounce back from lower level , recommendation is to Buy 1035 stock target will be 1040/1045 SL below 1025

Stock showing weakness in last week & it is going to be continued beacuse after analysis of derivate date we have seen the increase in open interest along with the price of stock fallen . Our recommendation is to sell the stock below 310 target 305/300 Sl 318 .

2. KSCL [FUTURE]

MACRO NEWS 

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled they will soon lay out a plan to stop letting go of $4 trillion in bonds and other assets, but policymakers are still debating how long their newly adopted “patient” stance on US rates policy will last. For now, policymakers see little risk to leaving interest rates alone while they take time to assess rising risks, including a global slowdown, according to the Fed’s minutes from their Jan. 29-30 meeting, released on Wednesday.

India will remain the fastest growing major economy, much ahead of China, in the next decade 2019-28, according to a global economic research report.The report prepared by Oxford Economics, which is engaged in global forecasting and quantitative analysis, India is likely to achieve an average growth of 6.5 percent in 2019-28, the highest among the emerging economies.India will be followed by the Philippines (5.3 per cent) and Indonesia (5.1 percent), the report titled 'Emerging Markets Sustained Growth in EMs Calls for Thrift and Innovation' said. China has been assigned the fourth slot with an average growth rate of 5.1 per cent for the next decade (2019-28).

KSCL— In KSCL we have seen sharp selling in this week , we may expect that it will be continue in upcoming week also. On Technical point of view seen trend line breakdown & also stock not able to sustain at upper level. RSI & MACD also indicate downtrend in this stock with strong volume.Our recommendation is sell stock future in the range of 410 Target 405/400 Sl 420

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

STOCKS IN NEWS

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION Symbol

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

Traded Volume (Contracts)

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,000

70 11,11,832

BANKNIFTY

CE

26,900 120.2

8,49,745

BANKNIFTY

CE

27,100

33.3

7,58,217

RELIANCE

CE

1,240 20.55

10,923

RELIANCE

CE

1,260

12.5

9,259

TATASTEEL

CE

500

7

7,783

TATASTEEL

CE

490 11.25

6,090

YESBANK

CE

220

6,084

7.1

MARUTIACTIVE PUT CE OPTION 9,000 111.5 5,823 MOST Symbol

Traded Volume (Contracts)

Open Interest

Steel: Government extends exemption on some 5,35,640 imported grades of steel until April 17, 2019. 2,75,320 JSW Steel: Moody's changes company's outlook to 5,03,340 positive; affirms all ratings 12,37,500 14,73,500 NIFTY FUTURE NIFTY -On daily weekly chart we have identify that Head & Shoulder pattern is forming at the 16,94,417 top . Head & shoulder & for a short term forming 8,55,166 Raising wedge pattern in technical term bearish reversal pattern .Nifty breach the important level of 11000 in this 51,94,000 week ,but closing below 11000 .On technical point of view still our recommendation is to sell nifty future in 2,83,500 the range of 10720 Target 10700/10650 SL 10850 Our Open strategy is to sell on rise .

Optio Strike n Price Type

LTP

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,800

33.5

8,60,888

6,66,720

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,700

18

8,03,530

6,02,620

BANKNIFTY

PE

26,600 11.75

6,29,708

4,86,940

RELIANCE

PE

1,200

8.5

9,244

14,04,500

RELIANCE

PE

1,220 13.65

6,554

6,54,500

TATASTEEL

PE

480

4.95

5,958

14,21,740

RELCAPITAL

PE

130

3.5

4,951

10,33,500

RELCAPITAL

PE

140

5.5

4,556

10,03,500

Interest

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS BUY No. of Contracts

SELL Amount in Crores

OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY

No. of Amount in No. of Contracts Crores Contracts

Amount in Crores

NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES

27607

1953.81

73094

5554.42

378025

29594.15

-3600.6063

INDEX OPTIONS

3119714

182034.68

3088262

180005.06

835121

62953.70

2029.615

STOCK FUTURES

263787

13604.61

264387

14104.13

1519302

89530.86

-499.5194

STOCK OPTIONS

200053

10680.74

194790

10354.77

170200

9838.80

325.9606 -1744.5501

INDICES

R2

R1

PIVOT

S1

S2

NIFTY

10817

10776

10711

10670

10605

BANKNIFTY

27144

27049

26891

26796

26638

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GOLD TRADING STRATEGY: Gold Buy Above 33800 Target 33850/33900 Sl 33700 Gold Sell Below 33700 Target 33650/33600 Sl 33800

SILVER TRADING STRATEGY: Silver Buy Above 40600 Target 40650 /40700 Sl 40500 Silver Sell Below 40500 Target 40450 /40400 Sl 40600

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said on Wednesday he saw investment opportunities of more than $100 billion in India over the next two years as he began his first official visit amid tensions between arch foes India and Pakistan.India rolled out the red carpet for the crown prince as it seeks diplomatic support against Pakistan following a militant attack in the disputed region of Kashmir.The crown prince was also given a lavish welcome this week in Pakistan where the two sides signed memoranda of understanding valued at about $20 billion to help prop up Pakistan's economy.In a joint press appearance after talks with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the crown prince said terrorism was a common concern and Saudi Arabia was ready to share intelligence with India to tackle it.India blames Pakistan for not doing enough to roll up militant groups that operate from its soil including the one that claimed responsibility for the Kashmir car bombing on Thursday last week.Pakistan denies any involvement in cross-border terrorism and said it would retaliate against an Indian attack. Oil prices were around 2019 highs on Wednesday, propped up by supply cuts led by producer club OPEC and by US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.But soaring US production and expectations of an economic slowdown look set to cap prices, analysts said.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures hit 2019 highs of $56.39 per barrel shortly after 0300 GMT on Wednesday, up 30 cents, or 0.5 percent, from their last settlement.International Brent crude futures were at USD 66.58 per barrel, up 13 cents, or 0.2 per cent, from their last close and not far off their 2019 high of USD 66.83 per barrel from Monday.Oil prices have been supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).OPEC-member and top crude exporter Saudi Arabia is expected to reduce shipments of light crude oil to Asia in March as part of the effort to tighten markets.OPEC as well as some nonaffiliated producers such as Russia agreed late last year to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to prevent a large supply overhang from swelling.“We have lowered Saudi crude oil output in line with announcements ... (and) are now assuming that Saudi Arabia will produce in the first three quarters of 2019 less than the 10.31 million bpd target it agreed to at the Dec 7 OPEC, non-OPEC meeting,� French bank BNP Paribas said in a note.

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

RECOMMENDATIONS GUARGUM5 TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GUARGUM MARCH ABOVE 8400 TGT 8500/8600 SL BELOW 8270 SELL GUARGUM MARCH BELOW 8250 TGT 8150/8050 SL ABOVE 8370

NCDEX INDICES Index

Value

% Change

Castor Seed Chana Coriander Cotton Seed Oilcake Guar Seed 10 MT

5352 4256 6214 2001 4242

-2.47 0.02 0.74 -1.65 0.17

15560

0.77

3843 3726 6306

0.57 -0.13 -0.57

Jeera Mustardseed Soy Bean Turmeric

DHANIYA TRADING STRATEGY: BUY DHANIYA APRIL ABOVE 6220 TGT 6260/6310 SL BELOW 6170 SELL DHANIYA APRIL BELOW 6130 TGT 6080/6030 SL ABOVE 6200

Operating margins of sugar millers could improve by 300400 basis points (bps) in sugar season 2019 (Oct 2018- Sep 2019) following a ~7% increase in the minimum support price to Rs 31 per kg from Rs 29 announced by the government, rating agency CRISIL research said in its latest report.“This will lead to incremental domestic sales realisation of ~Rs 3,300 crore, while higher export prices will generate another ~Rs 200 crore. That will help sugar mills reduce their cane arrears, which stands at Rs 20,000 crore now, by ~18% to ~Rs 16,500 crore. It will also cut the losses that millers have racked up because of excess supply and tepid exports,” the agency noted.Raw material cost as a proportion of sugar sales increased to about 90% in the current season following an uptick in the Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) of sugarcane, and subdued sugar prices owing to oversupply both locally and globally. Though the government took steps to arrest the losses of millers, non-integrated units continued to bleed in this season, the report said. Procincreased to 8.5 lakh bales in the ongoing 2018-19 Cotton season from 3.6 lakh bales during same period last year as prices remained below the minimum support prices (MSP) due to weak global prices and low exports.The Corporation expects procurement to touch 15 lakh bales by the end of the season.The MSP for medium-staple variety of Cotton is at Rs 5,150/quintal and that for long staple at Rs 5,450/quintal which are roughly equivalent to Rs 43,00043,500 per candy (1 candy = 356 kg). The government had raised the MSP for Cotton by 26% this year. Around 52% of the crop has already arrived in the market.urement of Cotton by Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) has

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

RBI Reference Rate Currency

Rate Currency

Rate

Rupee- $

71.19 Yen

64.28

80.7625 GBP

92.7250

Euro USD/INR TRADING STRATEGY: USD/INR

BUY USDINR ABOVE 71.60 TGT 71.80/72.05 SL BELOW 71.35 SELL USDINR BELOW 71.15 TGT 71.05 /70.90 SL ABOVE 71.30

GBP/INR TRADING STRATEGY: BUY GBPINR ABOVE 93 TGT 93.10 93.20 SL BELOW 92.8 SELL GBPINR BELOW 92.65 TGT 92.55 92.45 SL ABOVE 92.85

China's yuan rose on Wednesday after the United States pressed Beijing to prevent sharp weakening of its currency as part of any trade deal, while the dollar paused as traders positioned ahead of the release of Federal Reserve policy minutes.The yuan has been a strong performer in 2019, helped by the recovery in emerging market assets broadly and optimism that Washington and Beijing are close to agreeing a deal to end their trade conflict.In offshore markets, the yuan rose 0.4 percent to as strong as 6.7195 CNH= , its best level since Feb. 1.The dollar, measured against a basket of currencies, held steady at 96.501 .DXY .The dollar index rose to a two-month high last week but demand for the liquid greenback has ebbed on optimism that a fresh round of talks between China and the United States would help resolve their trade conflict. The euro nudged higher to $1.1350 EUR= but was struck within recent ranges - the single currency has struggled this month as worries about the state of the euro zone economy grow.Analysts at ABN AMRO's Georgette Boele said the bank had downgraded its euro forecasts for 2019 because of economic concerns."However, we also expect limited downside in the euro, because weaker-thanexpected euro zone data have had only a limited negative impact on the euro, suggesting that most of the weakness is reflected in the price," she said. The dollar was lower against the euro and the British pound in early trading in Europe Wednesday as a fall in U.S. Treasury yields reduced its attractiveness amid expectations of dovish news on interest rates from the Federal Reserve.Bond yields are under pressure from economic data that have tended towards the weak side in recent days. The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield has fallen to 2.64% from 2.80% over the last month, amid uncertainty over how far the Federal Reserve can afford to tighten monetary policy.Such uncertainty puts a special focus Wednesday on the release of the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting, where the U.S. central bank pivoted to a more neutral and datadependent stance, dropping its previous guidance about the likelihood of further interest rate increases.

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

Date

Commodity/ Currency Pairs

20/2/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

BUY

6340

20/2/19

NCDEX DHANIYA

APR

Sell

20/2/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

MAR

20/2/19

NCDEX GUARGUM5

20/2/19

Contract Strategy

Entry Level

Stop Loss

Remark

6355/6370/64 00

6280

NOT EXECUTED

6250

6235/6220/61 90

6310

TARGET

BUY

8200

8215/8240/82 60

8260

TARGET

MAR

SELL

8150

8135/8120/80 80

8210

TARGET

MCX GOLD

MAR

BUY

33350

33400/33475

33250

NOT EXECUTED

20/2/19

MCX GOLD

MAR

SELL

32900

32800/32800

33

TARGET

20/2/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

BUY

40700

40750/40800

40500

NOT EXECUTED

20/2/19

MCX SILVER

MAR

SELL

40400

40300/40200

40600

NOT EXECUTED

Entry Level

Target

Stop Loss

Remark

Target

Date

Scrip

CASH/ FUTURE/ Strategy OPTION

20/2/19

NIFTY

FUTURE

SELL

10750

10700/10650

10850

TARGET

20/2/19

TITAN

FUTURE

BUY

1040

1045/1050

1030

TARGET

20/2/19

KSCL

FUTURE

SELL

460

455/450

470

TARGET

20/2/19

REPOHOME

CASH

SELL

310

305/300

318

NOT EXECUTED

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS MONDAY, FEB. 18 Presidents Day holiday None scheduled TUESDAY, FEB. 19 8:50 am

Loretta Mester speaks

10 am

Home builders' index

Feb.

62

--

58

WEDNESDAY, FEB. 20 8:30 am

Housing starts*

Jan

DELAYED

--

8:30 am

Building permits*

Jan.

DELAYED

--

2 pm

FOMC minutes THURSDAY, FEB. 21

7:50 am

Raphael Bostic speaks

8:30 am

Weekly jobless claims

2/16

229,000

239,000

8:30 am

Durable goods orders (new date)*

Dec.

1.3%

0.7%

--

-0.6%

Markit manufacturing index flash Nov. Core capital equipment orders 8:30 am 9:45 am Markit services index flash (new date)* Nov. 9:45 am

--

Dec.--

55.7 54.8

8:30 am

Philly Fed

Feb.

--

17.0

9:45 am

Markit manufacturing PMI (flash)

Feb.

--

54.9

9:45 am

Markit services PMI (flash)

Feb.

--

54.2

10 am

Existing home sales

Jan.

4.99 mln

4.99 mln

10 am

Leading economic indicators

Jan.

--

-0.1%

FRIDAY, FEB. 22

All Day

Chicago Booth monetary policy forum Richard Clarida, keynote speaker Randal Quarles, John Williams, Mary Daly, James Bullard, Patrick Harker participate

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Special Report

21 -FEB-2019

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Sachin Yadav

Digitally signed by Sachin Yadav DN: cn=Sachin Yadav c=IN o=Personal Reason: I am the author of this document Location: Date: 2019-02-21 09:23+05:30

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