DAILY IFOREX REPORT 18th SEP 2013
HEADLINES
Euro Lifted by Best ZEW Surveys since 2009; Pound Struggles after CPI
Forex: Pound, Euro Unlikely To See Strong Response To CPI And ZEW Data GBP/USD
1.5807
GBP/EUR
1.1890
EUR/USD
1.3287
GBPAUD
1.7080
GBP/CAD
1.6344
GBP/CHF
1.4713
GBP/CZK
30.633
GBP/DKK
8.865
GBP/HKD
12.253
GBP/INR
100.22
GBP/JPY
157.44
GBP/NOK
9.340
GBP/NZD
1.945
GBP/PLN
5.006
GBP/SEK
10.330
GBP/SGD
2.007
GBP/THB
50.33
GBP/TRY
3.205
GBP/ZAR
15.731
GBP/CNY
9.723
TRADING TIPS
BUY USDJPY ABOVE 99.40TGT 99.60/99.80 SL 99.10
The US Dollar is broadly lower following a weak start to the trading week yesterday, but price action has started to shift from favoring the New Zealand Dollar over its Australian counterpart and the Euro over the British Pound. As the trading day has marched forward, there’s been an increased interest surrounding the Euro as regional bond yields have crept higher. Typically when European bond yields have moved up (particularly in Italy and Spain), the Euro has suffered. Today, however, yields are not increasing because investors are selling on fear; rather, improving economic growth prospects have reduced the demand for fixed income and boosted demand for riskier assets like stocks (the German DAX is holding near its all-time high set yesterday at 8626.11). Indeed, signs of a stronger Euro-Zone are emerging, with the ZEW Surveys surging to their best outputs in four years. Here are the figures stoking Euro strength:
-Euro-Zone ZEW Survey: Expectations (SEP): 58.6 from 44.0 - German ZEW Survey: Current Situation (SEP): 30.6 versus 20.0 expected, from 18.3 - German ZEW Survey: Expectations (SEP): 49.6 versus 45.0 expected, from 42.0
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3380 TGT 1.3400/1.3420 SL 1.3350
ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.5930 TGT 1.5950/1.5970 SL 1.5900
Meanwhile, the British Pound is seeing a bout of weakness following the soft CPI report. The report underscores shifting consumer expectations as the Bank of England attempts to keep interest rates pointed lower. Accordingly, if data today proliferates and becomes a trend, there is scope for a short-term, fundamentally based reversal in the EURGBP.
HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0003(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 59(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.10(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>45(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0001(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>41(BEARISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date
Time
Sun Sep 15
21:45
Importance
Actual
REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
2.1%
-0.5%
21:45
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
8.5%
14.7%
21:45
REINZ Housing Price Index (AUG)
Low
3746.6
3669.1
22:00
NZD Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence (3Q)
Medium
115.4
116.6
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (AUG)
Medium
53.2
58.2
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (SEP)
Low
-1.5%
-1.8%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (SEP)
Low
4.5%
5.5%
Troika Officials Start 8th and 9th Review of Portugal's Aid Plan
Low
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG F)
High
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F)
High
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.1%
0.1%
-0.5%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)
Low
0.9%
12:30
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (JUL)
Low
6.09B
8.00B
-15.43B
12:30
USD Empire Manufacturing (SEP)
Low
6.29
9.1
8.24
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
2.8%
13:15
USD Industrial Production (AUG)
Medium
0.4%
Mon Sep 16
Currency
Event
Forecast
Previous
1.7%
0.2%
0.5%
0.0%
Notes
Tue Sep 17
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (AUG)
13:15
Medium
0.7%
0.5%
-0.4%
USD Capacity Utilization (AUG)
Low
77.8%
77.9%
77.6%
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
01:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - September Minutes
Medium
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.8%
-3.6%
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
0.2%
3.0%
02:00
CNY Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
0.6%
02:00
CNY Conference Board China August Leading Economic Index
Low
269.3
267.4
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
53.3%
31.6%
06:00
EUR EU 27 New Car Registrations (AUG)
Low
-5.0%
5.0%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low
26.6B
27.8B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low
16.9B
19.8B
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.4%
0.5%
0.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
08:30
GBP ONS House Prices (YoY) (JUL)
Low
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-0.2%
0.2%
1.2%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.8%
3.0%
5.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (AUG)
Low
251.0
250.8
249.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (AUG)
Low
3.3%
3.20%
3.2%
LIVE
08:30 LIVE
08:30 LIVE
12.5%
24.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.5%
0.40%
0.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
3.3%
3.20%
3.1%
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)
High
49.6
45.0
42
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)
Medium
58.6
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (SEP)
Medium
30.6
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)
Low
18.2B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low
11.1B
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)
LIVE
12:30 LIVE
12:30 LIVE
12:30 LIVE
44
20.0
18.3
16.5B
15.0B
13.5B
High
1.8%
1.7%
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
1.6%
2.0%
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.2%
0.2%
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.5%
-0.5%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (AUG)
Low
234.341
234.004
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (AUG)
Low
233.963
233.596
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL)
Medium
-$15.0B
-$66.9B
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (JUL)
14:00
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP)
22:45
22:45
-$19.0B
Low
Medium
58
59
NZD Current Account Balance (2Q)
Low
-1.9B
-0.663B
NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (2Q)
Low
-4.8%
-4.8%
USD Federal Reserve FOMC Two-day Meeting Begins
High
00:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (JUL)
Medium
-0.2%
00:30
AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.0%
01:30
CNY China August Property Prices
08:30
GBP Bank of England Minutes
Wed Sep 18
Low
Medium
09:00
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (SEP)
Medium
7.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Low
-3.0%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 13)
Low
-13.5%
12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
-0.4%
2.7%
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
3.0%
5.9%
12:30
USD Building Permits (AUG)
Low
950K
943K
12:30
USD Housing Starts (AUG)
Low
923K
896K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 13)
Low
-639K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 13)
Low
-219K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 13)
Low
2586K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 13)
Low
1658K
USD Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (SEP)
High
$40B
$40B
USD Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (SEP)
High
$35B
$45B
USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections
High
USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (SEP 18)
High
0.25%
0.3%
USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington
High
22:45
NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
High
2.3%
2.4%
22:45
NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium
0.2%
0.3%
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (AUG)
Medium
-짜1113.8B
-짜1024.0B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (AUG)
Low
-짜824.5B
-짜944.0B
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG)
Low
14.8
12.2
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG)
Low
18.7
19.6
18:00 LIVE
18:00 LIVE
18:00 LIVE
18:00 LIVE
18:30 LIVE
Thu Sep 19
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo
Medium
JPY Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Kiuchi Speaks
Low
01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions Government (AUG)
Low
-509M
01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (AUG)
Low
26M
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (AUG)
Low
436M
01:30
JPY BOJ Board Member Kiuchi Speech & Press Conference
Low
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (JUL F)
Medium
106.4
05:00
JPY Leading Index (JUL F)
Medium
107.8
05:45
CHF SECO September 2013 Economic Forecasts
Medium
06:00
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (AUG)
Medium
2.38B
06:00
CHF Exports (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-1.9%
06:00
CHF Imports (MoM) (AUG)
Low
3.2%
07:30
CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (SEP 19)
High
0.0%
0.0%
LIVE
0.3%
-0.6%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
3.3%
3.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
3.2%
3.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.4%
1.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0%
1.1%
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (SEP)
Low
2
0
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (SEP)
Low
2
0
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 13)
Medium
330K
292K
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low
1.50%
-2.8%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (SEP 6)
Low
12:30
USD Current Account Balance (2Q)
Low
-$96.3B
-$106.1B
Medium
-2.6%
6.5%
LIVE
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
2871K
14:00
USD Leading Indicators (AUG)
Medium
0.6%
0.6%
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed. (SEP)
Medium
10
9.3
14:00
USD API Monthly Statistical Report
Low
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (AUG)
Low
5.25M
5.39M
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 13)
Low
65
22:00
NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)
Low
3.5%
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (AUG)
Low
1980
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 13)
Medium
-짜66.5B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 13)
Medium
짜38.1B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 13)
Low
-짜197.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 13)
Low
짜185.4B
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks at Kisaragi-kai Meeting
Low
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
4.7%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-0.3%
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-2.5%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-1.0%
07:00
JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-0.8%
08:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (AUG)
Medium
-19.6B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Interventions (AUG)
Low
13.3B
0.1B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (AUG)
Low
13.3B
0.5B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (AUG)
Low
11.9B
-1.6B
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.2%
1.4%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.1%
1.3%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.0%
Fri Sep 20
12:30
CAD CPI Core SA (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
12:30
CAD CPI SA (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (AUG)
Low
123.1
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.1%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP A)
Medium
-14.5%
-15.6
16:30
USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in New York
Low
16:55
USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in NY
Low
17:45
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in New York
Low
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