DAILY IFOREX REPORT 23rd SEP 2013
HEADLINES
Weekly Forex Trading Forecast: Finding Volatility and Trend Post-Fed
US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Plummets on Fed, but Here’s Why it Might not Fall Further GBP/USD
1.6072
GBP/EUR
1.1850
EUR/USD
1.3555
GBPAUD
1.6915
GBP/CAD
1.6381
GBP/CHF
1.4611
GBP/CZK
30.494
GBP/DKK
8.8356
GBP/HKD
12.4574
GBP/INR
99.03
GBP/JPY
157.13
GBP/NOK
9.269
GBP/NZD
1.9082
GBP/PLN
4.956
GBP/SEK
10.14
GBP/SGD
1.9995
GBP/THB
50.7976
GBP/TRY
3.1377
GBP/ZAR
15.489
GBP/CNY
9.807
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3500 TGT
The US Dollar plummeted against the Euro and other major FX counterparts as the US Federal Reserve disappointed those looking for it to “Taper” its Quantitative Easing policies, but is it enough to drive the Greenback to further lows?
Euro/US Dollar Look to Risk, PMIs and German Election to Hold 1.3500 There is a considerable amount of event risk for the Euro – but as we have learned over the past months and years, it may not be particularly market moving. That can be both a boon and burden for EURUSD as it hovers just above 1.3500.
Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Would Benefit from Softer US Yields, but FOMC Turned Risk “On” The Japanese Yen was a bottom performer over the past week, losing ground quickly from Wednesday forward after the Federal Reserve surprised investors by keeping QE3 in place at its current $85B/month pace.
British Pound Forecast - Pound to Face Limited Correction Amid Shift in BoE Policy Outlook The British Pound extended the advance from earlier this month as the Bank of England (BoE) struck a more hawkish tone for monetary policy...
1.3480/1.3460 SL 1.3530
SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.00 TGT 98.80/98.60 SL 99.30
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.6030 TGT 1.6050/1.6070 SL 1.6000
Australian Dollar Recovery Faces Evolving Fed QE Speculation Risks to the recovery of the Australian Dollar will emerge as a busy US economic data and Fed-speak schedule drive the evolution of Fed QE speculation.
HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.03(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>30(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date
Time
Sun Sep 15
21:45
Importance
Actual
REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
2.1%
-0.5%
21:45
REINZ House Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
8.5%
14.7%
21:45
REINZ Housing Price Index (AUG)
Low
3746.6
3669.1
22:00
NZD Westpac NZ Consumer Confidence (3Q)
Medium
115.4
116.6
22:30
NZD Performance Services Index (AUG)
Medium
53.2
58.2
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (SEP)
Low
-1.5%
-1.8%
23:01
GBP Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (SEP)
Low
4.5%
5.5%
Troika Officials Start 8th and 9th Review of Portugal's Aid Plan
Low
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (AUG F)
High
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG F)
High
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.1%
0.1%
-0.5%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Labor Costs (YoY) (2Q)
Low
0.9%
12:30
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (JUL)
Low
6.09B
8.00B
-15.43B
12:30
USD Empire Manufacturing (SEP)
Low
6.29
9.1
8.24
13:00
CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
2.8%
13:15
USD Industrial Production (AUG)
Medium
0.4%
0.5%
0.0%
13:15
USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (AUG)
Medium
0.7%
0.5%
-0.4%
13:15
USD Capacity Utilization (AUG)
Low
77.8%
77.9%
77.6%
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
01:30
AUD RBA Policy Meeting - September Minutes
Medium
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
Mon Sep 16
Tue Sep 17
Currency
Event
0.8%
Forecast
Previous
1.7%
0.2%
-3.6%
Notes
01:30
AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
0.2%
02:00
CNY Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
0.6%
02:00
CNY Conference Board China August Leading Economic Index
Low
269.3
267.4
04:00
JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
53.3%
31.6%
06:00
EUR EU 27 New Car Registrations (AUG)
Low
-5.0%
5.0%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low
26.6B
27.8B
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low
16.9B
19.8B
08:30
GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
2.7%
2.7%
2.8%
GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.4%
0.5%
0.0%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.6%
1.8%
2.1%
08:30
GBP ONS House Prices (YoY) (JUL)
Low
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-0.2%
0.2%
1.2%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Input n.s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.8%
3.0%
5.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
08:30
GBP Producer Price Index Output n.s.a. (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (AUG)
Low
251.0
250.8
249.7
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (AUG)
Low
3.3%
3.20%
3.2%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.5%
0.40%
0.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
3.3%
3.20%
3.1%
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)
High
49.6
45.0
42
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (SEP)
Medium
58.6
09:00
EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (SEP)
Medium
30.6
LIVE
08:30 LIVE
08:30 LIVE
3.0%
12.5%
24.1%
44
20.0
18.3
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (JUL)
Low
18.2B
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (JUL)
Low
11.1B
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)
LIVE
12:30 LIVE
12:30 LIVE
12:30 LIVE
16.5B
15.0B
13.5B
High
1.8%
1.7%
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
1.6%
2.0%
USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.2%
0.2%
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
0.2%
0.2%
12:30
CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.5%
-0.5%
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (AUG)
Low
234.341
234.004
12:30
USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (AUG)
Low
233.963
233.596
13:00
USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (JUL)
Medium
-$15.0B
-$66.9B
13:00
USD Total Net TIC Flows (JUL)
14:00
USD NAHB Housing Market Index (SEP)
22:45
22:45
-$19.0B
Low
Medium
58
59
NZD Current Account Balance (2Q)
Low
-1.9B
-0.663B
NZD Current Account Deficit-GDP Ratio (2Q)
Low
-4.8%
-4.8%
USD Federal Reserve FOMC Two-day Meeting Begins
High
00:00
AUD Conference Board Leading Index (JUL)
Medium
-0.2%
00:30
AUD Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
0.0%
01:30
CNY China August Property Prices
08:30
GBP Bank of England Minutes
Medium
09:00
CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (SEP)
Medium
7.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.7%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
Low
-3.0%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 13)
Low
-13.5%
12:30
USD Building Permits (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
Wed Sep 18
Low
-0.4%
2.7%
12:30
USD Housing Starts (MoM) (AUG)
12:30
Medium
3.0%
5.9%
USD Building Permits (AUG)
Low
950K
943K
12:30
USD Housing Starts (AUG)
Low
923K
896K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 13)
Low
-639K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 13)
Low
-219K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 13)
Low
2586K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 13)
Low
1658K
18:00
USD Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program (SEP)
High
$40B
$40B
USD Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program (SEP)
High
$35B
$45B
USD Fed Releases Summary of Economic Projections
High
USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (SEP 18)
High
0.25%
0.3%
USD Fed's Bernanke Holds Press Conference in Washington
High
22:45
NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q)
High
2.3%
2.4%
22:45
NZD Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q)
Medium
0.2%
0.3%
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Balance Total (Yen) (AUG)
Medium
-짜1113.8B
-짜1024.0B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance (Yen) (AUG)
Low
-짜824.5B
-짜944.0B
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Exports (YoY) (AUG)
Low
14.8
12.2
23:50
JPY Merchandise Trade Imports (YoY) (AUG)
Low
18.7
19.6
LIVE
18:00 LIVE
18:00 LIVE
18:00 LIVE
18:30 LIVE
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks in Tokyo
Thu Sep 19
Medium
JPY Bank of Japan Policy Board Member Kiuchi Speaks
Low
01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions Government (AUG)
Low
-509M
01:30
AUD RBA FX Transactions Other (AUG)
Low
26M
01:30
AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (AUG)
Low
436M
01:30
JPY BOJ Board Member Kiuchi Speech & Press Conference
04:30
JPY All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
05:00
JPY Coincident Index (JUL F)
Medium
106.4
05:00
JPY Leading Index (JUL F)
Medium
107.8
05:45
CHF SECO September 2013 Economic Forecasts
Medium
06:00
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (AUG)
Medium
2.38B
06:00
CHF Exports (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-1.9%
06:00
CHF Imports (MoM) (AUG)
Low
3.2%
CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision (SEP 19)
High
0.0%
0.0%
07:30 LIVE
Low
0.3%
-0.6%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales Incl. Auto (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
3.3%
3.0%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
3.2%
3.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales Incl. Auto (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.4%
1.1%
08:30
GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.0%
1.1%
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Selling Prices (SEP)
Low
2
0
10:00
GBP CBI Trends Total Orders (SEP)
Low
2
0
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 13)
Medium
330K
292K
12:30
CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (JUL)
Low
1.50%
-2.8%
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (SEP 6)
Low
12:30
USD Current Account Balance (2Q)
Low
-$96.3B
-$106.1B
LIVE
2871K
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
-2.6%
6.5%
14:00
USD Leading Indicators (AUG)
Medium
0.6%
0.6%
14:00
USD Philadelphia Fed. (SEP)
Medium
10
9.3
14:00
USD API Monthly Statistical Report
Low
14:00
USD Existing Home Sales (AUG)
Low
5.25M
5.39M
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 13)
Low
65
22:00
NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (AUG)
Low
3.5%
22:45
NZD Net Migration s.a. (AUG)
Low
1980
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 13)
Medium
-짜66.5B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 13)
Medium
짜38.1B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 13)
Low
-짜197.3B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 13)
Low
짜185.4B
JPY Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Speaks at Kisaragi-kai Meeting
Low
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
4.7%
03:00
NZD Credit Card Spending (MoM) (AUG)
Low
-0.3%
05:30
JPY Nationwide Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-2.5%
05:30
JPY Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-1.0%
07:00
JPY Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-0.8%
08:30
GBP Public Finances (PSNCR) (Pounds) (AUG)
Medium
-19.6B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Interventions (AUG)
Low
13.3B
0.1B
08:30
GBP PSNB ex Royal Mail, APF (AUG)
Low
13.3B
0.5B
08:30
GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (Pounds) (AUG)
Low
11.9B
-1.6B
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.2%
1.4%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.1%
1.3%
12:30
CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.0%
12:30
CAD CPI Core SA (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
12:30
CAD CPI SA (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.2%
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (AUG)
Low
123.1
12:30
CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
Fri Sep 20
0.1%
0.1%
14:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP A)
Medium
16:30
USD Fed's George Speaks on the Economy in New York
Low
16:55
USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in NY
Low
17:45
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in New York
Low
-14.5%
-15.6
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