DAILY IFOREX REPORT 24TH SEP 2013
HEADLINES
Weekly Forex Trading Forecast: Finding Volatility and Trend Post-Fed
US Dollar Forecast - US Dollar Plummets on Fed, but Here’s Why it Might not Fall Further GBP/USD
1.6045
GBP/EUR
1.1871
EUR/USD
1.3508
GBPAUD
1.7022
GBP/CAD
1.6512
GBP/CHF
1.4636
GBP/CZK
30.704
GBP/DKK
8.8522
GBP/HKD
12.4380
GBP/INR
100.28
GBP/JPY
158.71
GBP/NOK
9.4805
GBP/NZD
1.9157
GBP/PLN
5.0125
GBP/SEK
10.2052
GBP/SGD
2.0079
GBP/THB
50.03
GBP/TRY
3.1838
GBP/ZAR
15.83
GBP/CNY
9.7996
TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.3500 TGT
The US Dollar plummeted against the Euro and other major FX counterparts as the US Federal Reserve disappointed those looking for it to “Taper” its Quantitative Easing policies, but is it enough to drive the Greenback to further lows?
Euro/US Dollar Look to Risk, PMIs and German Election to Hold 1.3500 There is a considerable amount of event risk for the Euro – but as we have learned over the past months and years, it may not be particularly market moving. That can be both a boon and burden for EURUSD as it hovers just above 1.3500.
Japanese Yen Forecast - Yen Would Benefit from Softer US Yields, but FOMC Turned Risk “On” The Japanese Yen was a bottom performer over the past week, losing ground quickly from Wednesday forward after the Federal Reserve surprised investors by keeping QE3 in place at its current $85B/month pace.
British Pound Forecast - Pound to Face Limited Correction Amid Shift in BoE Policy Outlook The British Pound extended the advance from earlier this month as the Bank of England (BoE) struck a more hawkish tone for monetary policy...
1.3480/1.3460 SL 1.3530
SELL USDJPY BELOW 98.70 TGT 98.50/98.30 SL 99.00
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE 1.6080 TGT 1.6100/1.6120 SL 1.6050
Australian Dollar Recovery Faces Evolving Fed QE Speculation Risks to the recovery of the Australian Dollar will emerge as a busy US economic data and Fed-speak schedule drive the evolution of Fed QE speculation.
HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>47(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.03(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>50(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY GBPUSD CHART
ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>63(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>56(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USD INDEX CHART
ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0001(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALLENDER Date
Time
Mon Sep 23
01:45
Tue Sep 24
Currency
Event
Importance
Actual
Forecast
Previous
CNY HSBC/Markit Flash Mfg PMI (SEP)
Medium
51.2
50.9
50.1
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP P)
Low
49.5
50.1
49.7
07:00
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP P)
Low
50.7
49.6
48.9
07:00
CHF Money Supply M3 (YoY) (AUG)
Low
10.4%
07:00
CHF KOF Institute September Economic Forecast
Medium
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP A)
Medium
51.3
52.2
51.8
07:30
EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP A)
Medium
54.4
53.0
52.8
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (SEP A)
Medium
51.1
51.7
51.4
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Services (SEP A)
Medium
52.1
51.0
50.7
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (SEP A)
Medium
52.1
51.8
51.5
12:30
USD Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (AUG)
Medium
0.14
-0.05
-0.43
12:58
USD Markit US PMI Preliminary (SEP)
Medium
13:20
USD Fed's Lockhart to Speak in New York
Low
13:30
USD Fed's Dudley to Speak to Fordham Wall Street Council
Low
17:30
USD Fed's Fisher Speaks in Texas
Low
21:00
USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Low
05:00
JPY Supermarket Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Low
08:00
EUR German IFO Business Climate (SEP)
Medium
108.0
107.5
08:00
EUR German IFO Current Assessment (SEP)
Medium
112.6
112.0
08:00
EUR German IFO Expectations (SEP)
Medium
104.0
103.3
08:30
GBP BBA Loans for House Purchase (AUG)
Medium
38000
37200
10.8%
54.0
-0.5%
Notes
12:30
CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
12:30
Medium
0.5%
-0.6%
CAD Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.6%
-0.8%
13:00
USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (JUL)
Low
0.8%
0.9%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (JUL)
Low
12.5%
12.1%
13:00
USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (JUL)
Low
13:00
USD House Price Index (MoM) (JUL)
Medium
13:30
USD Fed's Pianalto Speaks on Payment Systems in Chicago
Low
14:00
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (SEP)
Low
14:00
USD Consumer Confidence (SEP)
High
17:00
USD Fed's George Delivers Introductory Remarks in Chicago
Low
22:45
NZD Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
22:45
159.54
0.9%
0.7%
14
80.3
81.5
Medium
-700M
-774M
NZD Exports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Low
3.54B
3.85B
22:45
NZD Imports (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Low
4.30B
4.62B
22:45
NZD Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (AUG)
Medium
-1550M
-1688M
23:50
JPY Corporate Service Price (YoY) (AUG)
Low
0.5%
0.4%
EUR German Import Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.3%
EUR German Import Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
Low
-3.7%
-2.6%
01:00
AUD DEWR Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.7%
05:00
JPY Small Business Confidence (SEP)
Medium
49.7
06:00
CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (AUG)
Medium
1.41
06:00
EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (OCT)
Medium
06:00
JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (AUG F)
Medium
10:00
GBP CBI Reported Sales (SEP)
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (SEP 20)
Wed Sep 25
Low
Medium
7
6.9
-1.8%
24
27
11.2%
Thu Sep 26
12:30
USD Durable Goods Orders (AUG)
High
-0.1%
-7.3%
12:30
USD Durables Ex Transportation (AUG)
Medium
1.1%
-0.6%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (AUG)
Low
1.2%
-3.3%
12:30
USD Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air (AUG)
Low
14:00
USD New Home Sales (AUG)
Low
425K
394K
14:00
USD New Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Medium
7.9%
-13.4%
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (SEP 20)
Low
-4368K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (SEP 20)
Low
-861K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (SEP 20)
Low
-1627K
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (SEP 20)
Low
-1079K
16:00
USD Household Change in Net Worth (2Q)
Low
$3003B
01:30
AUD Job vacancies (SEP)
Low
-7.3%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (YoY) (AUG)
Low
2.2%
2.2%
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone M3 s.a. (3M) (AUG)
Low
2.3%
2.5%
08:30
GBP Current Account (Pounds) (2Q)
Low
-10.0B
-14.5B
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)
Medium
0.7%
0.7%
08:30
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)
High
1.5%
1.5%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (QoQ) (2Q F)
Low
0.9%
0.9%
08:30
GBP Total Business Investment (YoY) (2Q F)
Low
-3.5%
-3.5%
12:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (SEP 20)
12:30
USD Continuing Claims (SEP 13)
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q T)
Medium
2.7%
2.5%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption (2Q T)
Medium
1.8%
1.8%
12:30
USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q T)
Medium
0.8%
0.8%
-1.5%
Medium
309K
Low
2787K
Fri Sep 27
12:30
USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q T)
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (AUG)
Low
14:00
USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
8.6%
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (SEP 20)
Low
46
15:00
USD Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity (SEP)
Low
8
16:15
USD Fed's Kocherlakota Speaks in Minnesota
Low
22:15
EUR ECB's Coeure Speaks in New York
Low
23:05
GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (SEP)
Medium
-11
-13
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
High
0.8%
0.7%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (AUG)
High
0.7%
0.7%
23:30
JPY National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (AUG)
High
-0.1%
-0.1%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP)
Low
0.5%
0.5%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (SEP)
Low
0.3%
0.4%
23:30
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (SEP)
Low
-0.3%
-0.4%
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (SEP 20)
Medium
짜921.6B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (SEP 20)
Medium
-짜50.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (SEP 20)
Low
짜112.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (SEP 20)
Low
짜153.5B
01:15
USD Fed's George Speaks on Economy in Denver
Low
01:30
CNY Industrial Profits YTD (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
01:45
CNY MNI September Business Sentiment Indicator
Low
06:45
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (2Q F)
Low
0.5%
0.5%
06:45
EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (2Q F)
Low
0.3%
0.3%
07:00
CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (SEP)
0.8%
Medium
Medium
-1.0%
-1.3%
11.1%
1.36
08:30
GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL)
Low
0.5%
0.0%
08:30
GBP Index of Services (3Mo3M) (JUL)
Low
0.6%
0.6%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (SEP)
Low
-0.09
-0.21
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (SEP)
Medium
95.9
95.2
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (SEP)
Medium
-7
-7.9
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (SEP F)
Medium
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (SEP)
Medium
-5
-5.3
09:45
USD Fed's Evans Speaks on Economy and Monetary Policy in Oslo
Low
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (SEP P)
Medium
0.0%
0.0%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (SEP P)
High
1.5%
1.5%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (SEP P)
Medium
0.1%
0.0%
12:00
EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (SEP P)
High
1.6%
1.6%
12:30
CAD Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) (JUL)
Low
12:30
USD Fed's Rosengren to Give Opening Remarks at Conference in NY
Low
12:30
USD Personal Income (AUG)
Medium
0.4%
0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Spending (AUG)
Medium
0.3%
0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (AUG)
Low
1.2%
1.4%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (AUG)
Low
0.1%
0.1%
12:30
USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (AUG)
Medium
1.2%
1.2%
13:55
USD U. of Michigan Confidence (SEP F)
Medium
78.0
76.8
14:15
USD Fed's Evans Discusses Economy on Panel in Oslo
Low
2.6%
18:00
USD Fed's Dudley to Speak on the Economy in Syracuse, NY
Low
Disclaimer The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.