DAILY I FOREX REPORT 5th FEBRUARY 2013
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HEADLINES
Is The Japanese Yen Selloff Finally Near A Breaking Point? Dollar At Key Resistance, S&P 500 Rally May Lose Steam
TRADING TIPS SELL EURUSD BELLOW 1.3540 tgs 1.3526/1.3512 sl 1.3565
Euro-Zone Producer Prices Continue to Decline
Political Allegations in Italy and Spain Send Euro Below 1.3600 In only six months, Forex traders have heard sentimental chatter about the Euro-zone flip from talks
BUY USDJPY ABOW
of an imminent Euro breakup to predictions of a Eurozone recovery by the end of the year. That sharp turn
93.20 tgt
in sentiment was accompanied by a 1500 point rally in
93.36/93.52 SL 92.05
Euro trading against the US Dollar. However, the speed of the change in sentiment has left skeptics waiting for a story to reinforce their doubts over the recovery.
SELL GBPUSD BELOW 1.5674 tgt 1.5660/1.5646 SL 1.5700 WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO
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HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART
ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.3645 HIGH: 1.3649 LOW: 1.3656 CLOSE: 1.3563
EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD REVERSAL STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>. -0009(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 35(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
HOURLY USDJPY CHART
ANALYSIS OPEN: 92.76 HIGH: 93.18 LOW: 92.49 CLOSE: 92.83
USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD => 0002( BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>58(BULLISH SIGNAL)
HOURLYGBPUSD GBPUSD CHART HOURLY CHART
ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5701 HIGH: 1.5740 LOW: 1.5693 CLOSE: 1.5729
GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD => -.0005( BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>
45(BEARISH SIGNAL)
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
HOURLY EURGBP CHART
ANALYSIS OPEN: 0.8690 HIGH: 0.8693 LOW: 0.8622 CLOSE: 0.8623
EURGBP LOOKS UPWARDS TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DEEPS MACD =>.0022(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>52(BULLISH SIGNAL)
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HOURLY USDINDEX CHART
ANALYSIS OPEN: 79.2030 HIGH: 79.5060 LOW: 79.1790 CLOSE: 79.4540
USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>0.0125(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>68(BULLISH SIGNAL)
ECONOMIC CALENDER
Date
Time
Sun Feb 3
01:00
Importance
Actual
CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (JAN)
Medium
56.2
56.1
23:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
2.5%
2.4%
23:30
AUD TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.3%
0.4%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN)
Low
10.9%
11.8%
GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JAN)
Low
1.6%
-0.3%
GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0%
1.3%
00:00
NZD ANZ Commodity Price (JAN)
Low
0.3%
1.0%
00:01
GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JAN)
Low
15
20
00:30
AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (JAN)
Low
-0.9%
-2.80%
00:30
AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)
Low
-4.4%
1.0%
3.4%
00:30
AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)
Low
9.3%
14.9%
14.1%
07:00
CHF UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (4Q)
Low
1.11
09:30
EUR Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (FEB)
Medium
-3.9
-1.7
-7
09:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JAN)
Medium
48.7
49.2
48.7
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
High
2.1%
2.1%
2.1%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
14:45
EUR German Chancellor Merkel and Spanish PM Rajoy Hold Press Conference
Medium
15:00
USD Factory Orders (DEC)
Medium
2.3%
0.0%
21:45
NZD Average Hourly Earnings (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
0.4%
1.4%
21:45
NZD Labor Cost Private Sector (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
0.5%
0.5%
21:45
NZD Private Wages ex Overtime (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
0.5%
0.5%
Mon Feb 4
Currency
Event
Forecast
Previous
1.02
Notes
Tue Feb 5
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Service Index (JAN)
Medium
43.2
00:01
GBP BRC Sales LikeFor-Like YoY (JAN)
Low
0.3%
00:30
AUD House Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
0.3%
0.3%
00:30
AUD House Price Index (YoY) (4Q)
Medium
0.9%
0.3%
00:30
AUD Trade Balance (Australian dollar) (DEC)
Medium
-800M
-2637M
01:45
CNY HSBC Services PMI (JAN)
Medium
03:30
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (FEB 5)
07:00
51.7
High
3.00%
3.00%
CHF Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (DEC)
Medium
2.00B
2.90B
07:00
CHF Exports (MoM) (DEC)
Low
6.0%
07:00
CHF Imports (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.2%
08:45
EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN)
Medium
45.8
45.6
08:50
EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN F)
Medium
43.6
43.6
09:30
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Services (JAN)
Medium
49.5
48.9
09:30
GBP Official Reserves (Changes) (JAN)
Low
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)
High
-1.4%
-2.6%
10:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
-0.5%
0.1%
15:00
USD ISM NonManufacutring Composite (JAN)
Medium
55.0
55.7
15:00
USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (FEB)
Low
46.5
46.5
GBP New Car Registrations (YoY) (JAN)
Low
3.7%
00:01
GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.5%
00:30
AUD Retail Sales Ex Inflation(QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
0.3%
-0.1%
00:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
0.3%
-0.1%
Wed Feb 6
-$350M
Thu Feb 7
01:30
JPY BOJ Board Member Sato Speech
Low
11:00
EUR German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-1.2%
-1.0%
11:00
EUR German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.7%
-1.8%
12:00
USD MBA Mortgage Applications (FEB 1)
Low
15:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index SA (JAN)
Medium
15:30
USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (FEB 1)
Low
284K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (FEB 1)
Low
5947K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (FEB 1)
Low
-2315K
15:30
USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (FEB 1)
Low
-956K
21:45
NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (4Q)
Medium
-0.4%
21:45
NZD Employment Change (YoY) (4Q)
Medium
0.0%
21:45
NZD Unemployment Rate (4Q)
Medium
7.3%
21:45
NZD Participation Rate (QoQ) (4Q)
Low
68.4%
22:30
AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index (JAN)
Medium
38.8
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (DEC)
Medium
-0.9%
3.9%
23:50
JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-4.0%
0.3%
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1)
Low
-짜228.8B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1)
Low
짜248.6B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (FEB 1)
Low
짜663.1B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (FEB 1)
Low
-짜254.1B
23:50
JPY Official Reserve Assets (JAN)
Low
$1268.1B
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (JAN)
Low
0.0%
-8.1%
53.8
52.8
EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Low
00:30
AUD Employment Change (JAN)
High
6.0K
-5.5K
00:30
AUD Unemployment Rate (JAN)
High
5.5%
5.4%
00:30
AUD Full Time Employment Change (JAN)
Medium
-13.8K
00:30
AUD NAB Business Confidence (4Q)
Medium
-2
00:30
AUD Part Time Employment Change (JAN)
Medium
8.3K
00:30
AUD Participation Rate (JAN)
05:00
JPY Leading Index (DEC P)
05:00
3.2%
Low
65.1%
65.1%
Medium
93.6
92.1
JPY Coincident Index (DEC P)
Low
92.6
90.2
05:30
AUD Foreign Reserves (Australian dollar) (JAN)
Low
06:45
CHF SECO Consumer Confidence (JAN)
Medium
-12
-17
07:45
EUR French Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)
Low
-4200M
-4334M
08:00
CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (JAN)
Low
428.5B
427.2B
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-2.2%
-2.4%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-2.6%
-2.1%
09:30
GBP Visible Trade Balance (Pounds) (DEC)
Medium
-£9000
-£9164
09:30
GBP Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.7%
0.3%
09:30
GBP Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.6%
-0.3%
09:30
GBP Total Trade Balance (Pounds) (DEC)
Low
-£3300
-£3466
09:30
GBP Trade Balance Non EU (Pounds) (DEC)
Low
-£4300
-£4519
10:00
EUR European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts (Table)
Medium
A$47.3B
11:00
EUR German Industrial Production n.s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
-0.5%
-2.9%
11:00
EUR German Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.2%
0.2%
12:00
GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (FEB)
High
375B
375B
12:00
GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (FEB 7)
High
0.5%
0.50%
12:45
EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (FEB 7)
High
0.75%
0.75%
12:45
EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (FEB 7)
Low
0.0%
0.00%
13:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
13:30
USD Initial Jobless Claims (FEB 3)
Medium
13:30
CAD Building Permits (MoM) (DEC)
Low
13:30
CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM) (DEC)
Low
0.1%
0.1%
13:30
USD Continuing Claims (JAN 27)
Low
3187K
3197K
13:30
USD Non-Farm Productivity (4Q P)
Low
-1.0%
2.9%
13:30
USD Unit Labor Costs (4Q P)
Low
3.0%
-1.9%
15:00
GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate (JAN)
15:30
2.2%
360K
368K
-17.9%
Medium
-0.3%
USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (FEB 1)
Low
-194
20:00
USD Consumer Credit (DEC)
Medium
$14.500B
$16.045B
23:50
JPY Trade Balance BOP Basis (Yen) (DEC)
Medium
-¥560.3B
-¥847.5B
23:50
JPY Adjusted Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)
Low
¥235.8B
¥225.9B
23:50
JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (JAN)
Low
1.4%
23:50
JPY Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (JAN)
Low
1.2%
23:50
JPY Current Account Balance (YoY) (DEC)
Low
-154.3%
-276.4%
23:50
JPY Current Account Total (Yen) (DEC)
Low
-¥141.1B
-¥222.4B
JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (4Q)
Low
CNY Exports (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
17.1%
14.1%
CNY Imports (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
23.5%
6.0%
CNY Trade Balance (USD) (JAN)
Medium
$24.20B
$31.62B
04:30
JPY Bankruptcies (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current (JAN)
Medium
05:00
JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (JAN)
Medium
05:30
CNY Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
High
2.1%
2.5%
05:30
CNY Producer Price Index (YoY) (JAN)
Medium
-1.6%
-1.9%
06:45
CHF Unemployment Rate (JAN)
Medium
3.4%
3.3%
06:45
CHF Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)
Medium
3.1%
3.0%
07:00
EUR German Trade Balance (euros) (DEC)
Medium
15.0B
17.0B
07:00
EUR German Current Account (euros) (DEC)
Low
17.0B
15.3B
07:00
EUR German Exports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
1.4%
-3.4%
07:00
EUR German Imports s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
1.6%
-3.7%
07:30
EUR Bank of France Business Sentiment (JAN)
Medium
95
07:45
EUR French Central Government Balance (euros) (DEC)
Low
-103.4B
08:15
CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (DEC)
Medium
2.9%
09:00
EUR Italian Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Low
-7.6%
09:00
EUR Italian Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (DEC)
Low
09:00
EUR Italian Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (DEC)
Low
13:15
CAD Housing Starts (JAN)
Medium
195.0K
198.0K
13:30
CAD Net Change in Employment (JAN)
High
4.0K
39.8K
23:50 Fri Feb 8
3.0%
-13.8%
48
45.8
51
0.2%
-1.0%
-7.6%
13:30
CAD Unemployment Rate (JAN)
High
13:30
CAD Full Time Employment Change (JAN)
Medium
41.2
13:30
CAD Part Time Employment Change (JAN)
Medium
-1.4
13:30
CAD Participation Rate (JAN)
Medium
66.8
13:30
USD Trade Balance (DEC)
Medium
-$46.0B
-$48.7B
13:30
CAD International Merchandise Trade (Canadian dollar) (DEC)
Low
-1.50B
-1.96B
15:00
USD Wholesale Inventories (DEC)
Low
0.4%
0.6%
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