Should Marvin Rees Stand as an MP?

What is next for the soon-to-be former mayor of Bristol?

Almost a year after Bristol opted to abandon the mayoral system, the political future of Marvin Rees remains unclear. The electorate voted for the return of the committee system, vesting decision-making powers among councillors, rather than the mayor’s office, forcing Rees to look at alternative options. Suggestions have included a move from local to national politics, involving a run to become a Westminster MP, which Rees himself has previously touted.

Various factors will inform this decision, starting with the availability of opportunities to become a Labour candidate.

Labour holds all four constituencies in Bristol, including Bristol West – represented by Thangam Debbonaire, the Shadow Leader of the House of Commons.

The majorities within all these areas are healthy, with electoral trends likely to enhance Labour’s vote share. It is unlikely Rees would risk angering the Labour leadership by challenging a Shadow Cabinet member.

Bristol North West MP Darren Jones is also developing a national profile, hindering a Rees campaign in this constituency.

However, with the potential of boundary changes to the political map and the probable creation of a fifth constituency (Bristol North East), there is likely to be a substantial impact on Bristol politics.

Despite alterations to their own constituency boundaries, both the MPs for the Bristol East and Bristol South communities are set to stand in those same areas, creating a vacancy in the new constituency that would likely be the focus of Rees’ efforts.

Local party members could be resistant, arguing that Rees is simply using the area as a platform to further his political ambitions.

Despite this, Rees’ political career so far has received widespread praise, while also representing vital progress for minority ethnic communities, becoming the first person of black African heritage to be directly elected mayor in a major European city.

These achievements must not be understated, helping to combat his- torical issues for minority representation, particulary relevant to Bristol – a city defined for generations by racial tensions. If Rees combines his unique experiences and perspectives with his visible platform, he could have a transformative effect as a local MP that is hard to overlook.

Rees has a genuine understanding of Bristol – having been raised in a working-class area in Lawrence Weston and employed in various positions within the city before his political career began.

The vote to abolish the position is viewed by some to be rooted in dissatisfaction with Rees, with other mayors possessing similar powers like Andy Street in the West Midlands faring better in their electoral fortunes. However, the extent to which this is true is difficult to gauge, with the referendum result also reflecting systematic disillusionment, rather than personal issues.

Labour’s dominance within Bristol has been endangered by an energised Green Party movement, the largest party on the city council. As a result, concentrating power in a singular elected official has become an insufficient way of reflecting the varied views of Bristolians.

Any campaign in Bristol North East Rees enters would almost certainly involve focus on his record as mayor. Attacks from opponents may utilise previous criticism seen during the referendum campaign, often pointing to his inability to build a consensus and authoritarian tendencies during his time in office. These may be hard to counter, especially considering they are echoed by ex-Labour councillors like Jo Sergeant, who defected to the Greens after detailing similar concerns.

In response, Rees is likely to argue his national profile will provide important influence and publicity for his constituents. Convincing those same constituents that this move is not merely an attempt to move up the political ladder and serve future leadership ambitions is vital.

The favourable conditions for a Westminster run are there for Rees, with a new constituency providing a unique opening for the mayor. His prominence will likely encourage the Labour leadership to back his run. However, facing the electorate will provide an intriguing test – with his ability to combat scrutiny on his record as mayor and overcome careerist arguments crucial.