Future Forest
Examining Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the Green Mountain State
Future Forest V1.0 - Spring 2014 Š Eammon Coughlin
Future Forest Examining Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation in the Green Mountain State
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1-2
Introduction
3-6 7-12
How Will Climate Change Impact Vermont Forests? Changing Climate, Changing Forest Species Winner and Losers Tables Understanding Climate
30 4
Afterword
How Has Climate Change Impacted Vermont Forests? Taking Measure Changing Hardiness Zones
21-22
What Can be done? Adaptation Strategies Mobilizing for Action
INTRODUCTION The global extent of the human footprint suggests that humans are stewards of nature, whether we like it or not. The long-term impact of human influence, positive or negative, benign or catastrophic, depends on our willingness to shoulder responsibility for our stewardship. -Sanderson et al. The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild. Bioscience. 2002
57% Unforested
43% Forested
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in. -Proverb (lame quote)
1900
The improvement of forest trees is the work of centuries. So much more the reason for beginning now. -George Perkins Marsh, Letter to C. S. Sargent, 12 Jun 1879
23% Unforested
While climate change is In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990. This project was conceived as a two part investigation. The first part (this work) focuses on the impact of climate change on natural systems and how Vermonters could decide to act. The following portion will focus on the built environment and in particular how Vermonters could change building patterns to to adapt to increased storms.
77% Forested
1990 Most Vermonters have some knowledge of the vast changes the state has undergone in the last 100 years as farmland and pasture have grown back into forests. Much less is known about about what could happen in
5
1-2 Taking Measure Changing Hardiness Zones
Introduction
6
Changing Climate, Changing Forest Species Winner and Losers Tables Understanding Climate
3-6
6-12
How Has Climate Change Impacted Vermont Forests?
How Will Climate Change Impact Vermont Forests?
21-22 What Can be done? Adaptation Strategies
Mobilizing for Action
7
Introduction The global extent of the human footprint suggests that humans are stewards of nature, whether we like it or not. The long-term impact of human influence, positive or negative, benign or catastrophic, depends on our willingness to shoulder responsibility for our stewardship. -Sanderson et al. The Human Footprint and the Last of the Wild. Bioscience. 2002
43% Forested
A society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in. -Proverb (lame quote)
1900
The improvement of forest trees is the work of centuries. So much more the reason for beginning now. -George Perkins Marsh, Letter to C. S. Sargent, 12 Jun 1879
23% Unforested
In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990. This project was conceived as a two part investigation. The first part (this work) focuses on the impact of climate change on natural systems and how Vermonters could decide to act. The following portion will focus on the built environment and in particular how Vermonters could change building patterns to to adapt to increased storms. 8
57% Unforested
77% Forested
1990 Most Vermonters have some knowledge of the vast changes the state has undergone in the last 100 years as farmland and pasture have grown back into forests. Much less is known about about what could happen in the next 100 years.
9
TAKING MEASURE: Climate Indicators
10
Last Spring Freeze:
First Autumn Freeze:
Growing Season:
~11.5 ~7.5
~18.5
Days Earlier
Days Later
Days Longer
Since 1960
Since 1960
Since 1960
Small Lake Freeze Up:
Small Lake Ice Out
Lilac First Leaf:
Lilac First Bloom:
~19.5 ~14.5 ~14.5 ~8 Days Later
Days Earlier
Since 1960
Since 1960
Days Earlier
Days Earlier
Since 1960
Since 1960
11
TAKING MEASURE: Changing Hardiness Zones In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990
12
Zone 3b reduced to few isolated areas
3b 4a 4b 5a
Zone 5b appears for first time in southern portion of state
5b
1990
2012 13
Shifting Forests In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990
The change in elevation on Vermont’s highest peaks produces a climactic gradient that influences forest types. A similar gradient is found along Vermont’s North-South Axis.
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High Elevation Boreal Forest
Ecotone B
ou
nd
~100m Since 1964
ary
Northern Hardwood Forest 15
Subheading In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990
16
LOW EMISSIONS SCENARIO (GREY)
1961-1990
2010-2039
2040-2069
2070-2090
2010-2039
HIGH EMISSIONS SCENARIO (BLACK)
2040-2069
2070-2090
2070-2090
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
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Subheading In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur? Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos erumquam faceseque nis intis qui corita alicatiorum ad undamenti aut la voluptia volores equame moluptatur, optatia speliquis parum, ullenim ressinciis a sunt repeles tiunte ni am as alis enis et lant pres a volupti del es con praturero blabo. Serchilitium harum vitatemqui unt. Sed ma que seque necae mos que plit iunt. Fuga. Itas ad maximol uptatios maximus, quo conseque nos eicid que lantisi mporunt, odipsunt ad que pratem re, quodita sunt adi aut restiant as poreritatum sum ex et quatectur, sin reium faceperum vel imenecus prat lacesti nam fugitis maiostrum quatur? Quis rerferum aut at exceatemquam nemque porum volorum quibus re omnis audae nonsed es voluptatur, sit que vendi ommod quo quo 18
Maple/Beech/Birch
Oak/Pine/Hickory Over time, Vermont’s Forests will shift from those dominated by Maple, Beech and Birch, to those dominated by Oak Pine and Hickory.
Spruce/Fir Forests potentially eliminated under low emissions scenario
Current Distribution
Low Emissions Scenario (~2100)
Maple/Beech/Birch Forests give way to Oak/Hickory under high emissions scenario
High Emissions Scenario (~2100)
Oak / Hickory
Shifting Forests
Loblolly / Shortleaf Pine
Spruce / Fir
Elm / Ash / Cottonwood
Other
Maple / Beech / Birch
No Data
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TREE SPECIES: WINNERS
Ranked by Gcm3AvgHiDif (average of 3 High Emissions Climate models). Higher score indicates suitable habitat more likely to expand
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Species with suitable habitat projected to expand in Vermont
1
Quercus alba White Oak
2
Juniperus virginiana Eastern Red Cedar
6
Quercus prinus Chestnut Oak
11
Populus deltoides Eastern Cottonwood
3
Quercus velutina Black Oak
Cornus florida Flowering Dogwood
7
Morus rubra Red Mulberry
8
Quercus rubra Northern Red Oak
12
Liriodendron tulipifera Tulip Poplar
4
13
Gleditsia triacanthos Honey Locust
5
Quercus stellata Post Oak
10
9
Celtis occidentalis Hackberry
Ulmus americana American Elm
14
Sassafras albidum Sassafras
15
Juglans nigra Black Walnut
TREE SPECIES: LOSERS
Decline of Culturally and Ecologically Important Species
Sugar Maple Vermont state tree and economically important species
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Paper Birch Symbol of the northern forest
Eastern Hemlock Third most common tree in Vermont and crucial riparian species
Species with suitable habitat projected to decline in Vermont
1
2
Abies balsamea Balsam Fir
Acer saccharum Sugar Maple
6
Picea rubens Red Spruce
7
Acer pensylvanicum Striped Maple
12
Prunus pensylvanica Pin Cherry
4
Betula alleghaniensis Yellow Birch
Fagus grandifolia American Beech
Populus tremuloides Quaking Aspen
11
3
8
Acer rubrum Red Maple
Betula papyrifera Paper Birch
9
Pinus strobus Eastern White Pine
13
Thuja occidentalis Northern White Cedar
14
Fraxinus nigra Black Ash
5
10
Tsuga canadensis Eastern Hemlock
15
Acer spicatum Mountain Maple
BIRD SPECIES: WINNERS Recent studies have focused on projecting the habitat areas of various bird species based on climate change and warming.
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Species with suitable habitat projected to expand in Vermont
1
Baeolophus bicolor Tufted Titmouse
2
11
Guiraca caerulea Blue Grosbeak
4
Melanerpes carolinus Red-Bellied Woodpecker
5
Icteria virens Yellow Breasted Chat
Colinus virginianus Northern Bobwhite
Coccyzus americanus Yellow-billed Cuckoo
7
8
9
10
Red Cardinal Cardinalis cardinalis
Thryothorus ludovicianus Carolina Wren
Mimus polyglottos Northern Mockingbird
13
14
15
6
Polioptila caerulea Blue-gray Gnatcatcher
3
Icterus spurius Orchard Oriole
12
Oporornis formosus Kentucky Warbler
Vireo griseus White-eyed Vireo
Eremophila alpestris Horned Lark
Piranga rubra Summer Tanager
BIRD SPECIES: LOSERS Recent studies have focused on projecting the habitat areas of various bird species based on climate change and warming.
Loss of Culturally and Ecologically Important Species
Ruffed Grouse
Important State gamebird
26
Hermit Thrush State bird
Northern Loon
Symbol of the northern forest
Species with suitable habitat projected to decline in Vermont
1
Tachycineta bicolor Tree Swallow
2
Dolichonyx oryzivorus Bobolink
6
Bombycilla cedrorum Cedar Waxwing
11
Passerculus sandwichensis Savannah Sparrow
3
Zonotrichia albicollis White-Throated Sparrow
7
Catharus guttatus Hermit Thrush
8
Sphyrapicus varius Yellow-bellied Sapsucker
12
Vermivora ruficapilla Nashville Warbler
13
Setophaga ruticilla American Redstart
4
Catharus fuscescens Veery
5
Dendroica coronata Yellow-rumped Warbler
9
Carpodacus purpureus Purple Finch
14
Sitta canadensis Red-breasted Nuthatch
10
Troglodytes troglodytes Winter Wren
15
Melospiza georgiana Swamp Sparrow
Subheading In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur? Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos erumquam faceseque nis intis qui corita alicatiorum ad undamenti aut la voluptia volores equame moluptatur, optatia speliquis parum, ullenim ressinciis a sunt repeles tiunte ni am as alis enis et lant pres a volupti del es con praturero blabo. Serchilitium harum vitatemqui unt. Sed ma que seque necae mos que plit iunt. Fuga. Itas ad maximol uptatios maximus, quo conseque nos eicid que lantisi mporunt, odipsunt ad que pratem re, quodita sunt adi aut restiant as poreritatum sum ex et quatectur, sin reium faceperum vel imenecus prat lacesti nam fugitis maiostrum quatur? Quis rerferum aut at exceatemquam nemque porum volorum quibus re omnis audae nonsed es voluptatur, sit que vendi ommod quo quoIncius pro magnata temque ra di berunto voloressecum dunt, conest acest res endest aut alia veni conempo reriatem ex exped quid quamus voleniatem quatur sed ut aut deliqua spient. Cestrum quatur sitiore sit volutem quam adiassi nctassit, omnimust quibusam everum at laborehentio et alitature 28
Increased erosion
increased storms
Gap Creation
Increased Pests / Invasives
increased temperatures
Forest Health Declines
Heat / Drought Stress Greater nutrient export - loss of base cations increase in denitrification
warmer wetter winters and drier summers
Water Quality Declines / Eutrophication
Higher Water Temperatures Species migrate north as they cease to regenerate further south
1 PROTECT AND RESTORE RIPARIAN AREAS Riparian areas could play a crucial role in Vermont’s climate change adaptation efforts. Through the conservation of existing riparian areas as well as riparian restoration, benefits to biodiversity and from ecosystem services could be realized. Riparian area protection and restoration would have a strong impact on animal life, including the Vermont cold water fishery as well as bird and mammal populations that use riparian corridors for movement and feeding. Moreover, enhanced riparian areas would help to provide a “buffer” against other stressors that might be generated by climate change. Riparian areas often cross climatic gradients as they move from high to low elevations thus connecting them. Additionally, the microclimate created in riparian areas creates refugia for plant and animal species, helping to preserve biodiversity. Some species, such as Trout, are especially sensitive to temperature changes.
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2 MANAGE URBAN FORESTS Climate change will exacerbate the environmental effects associated with urbanization, including changes to hydrology and the urban heat island. Carefully managed urban forests, even in Vermont’s small towns, could help to shade parking areas, homes and other buildings. Increased shade could help to alleviate the warmer temperatures caused about by climate change and would have ancillary effects such as reducing urban air pollution and lowering energy costs during summer. Furthermore, as part of integrated stormwater management systems, urban trees could mitigate stormwater brought about by increased precipitation from climate change. This would have profound impacts on downstream waterways by reducing suspended solids and chemical pollutants discharged to waterways. Moreover, managing urban forests for stormwater mitigation benefit could help to reduce flooding by capturing and percolating stormwater into the soil before it reaches urban streams. Researchers have identified several broad strategies for adapting urban forests to climate change. These included planning for the diversity of of the urban forest, both in species and the genetic diversity of individual species. Diversity will ensure that urban forests don’t “have all their eggs in one basket” and will help to reduce impacts from future stressors including disease. Additionally, tree and vegetation species traits, such as those that provide greater shade or those suited to stormwater management should help to guide urban forest planning. Moreover, urban forests should include a range of species adapted to warmer climates.
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3 ENGAGE CITIZENS THROUGH MONITORING
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REDEFINE NATIVE AND NATURAL
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3 ENGAGE CITIZENS THROUGH MONITORING
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Adaptation:
and india on the verge of becoming first world nations Connect degraded habitats Protect Waterways and Riparian areas Return unused lands to forests Leverage unused space for nursery areas and habitat reconstruction Translocate species - phenotypes from
40
41
Understanding Forest Impacts In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur? Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos
Figure x.x Predicted climate change impacts on forests Warmer wetter winters & warmer drier summers
Expansion of southern bird species
Expansion of pest species: Emerald Ash Borer, Hemlock Wooly Adelgid and Asian Long horn Beetle
Gap creation due to tree mortality and wind throw
More intense storms greater precipitation
Decline of northern bird species
Decline of northern tree species Maple, Birch, Beech
H2O Warming and drying of ponds and streams Increased evaporation & transpiration
Expansion of southern tree species Oak, Pine, Hickory
42
Increased erosion
NO3, Al, Ca2+ H +, K
Increased loss of base cations, acids & nutrients from forests
Expansion of invasive species Buckthorn, Knotweed, Phragmites, etc.
4 1
Waterways exposed to more sunlight
Eastern Hemlock provides dense shade cover in riparian areas
Heat Stress
Drought
Adelges tsugae Hemlock Wooly Adelgid
2
5
Figure x.x Possible “domino effect� of climate change on Eastern Hemlock dominated riparian areas
Climate change increases stressors & pests
NO3, Al, Ca2+ H+, K
Base cations and nutrients lost from surrounding forest into streams and rivers
3
6
Hemlock declines in riparian areas
H2O temperatures rise. Waterways face greater acidification and eutrophication from increased nutrient loading. Cold water fish habitat & H2O quality declines
43
1 Protect and Restore Riparian Areas Goals:
Seavy et al. 2009 lays out a convincing argument for riparian restoration in the face of climate change and its effects. Among the Enhancing Connectivity Promoting Linkages between Aquatic and Terrestrial Systems Expanding Thermal Refugia Hydrological Benefits
Riparian Restoration Riparian areas could play a crucial role in climate change adaptation as well as helping to mitigate the effects of more frequent intense storms and flooding.
44
Zone 3b reduced to few isolated areas
45
1 Protect and Restore Riparian Areas
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1 Protect and Restore Riparian Areas
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49
1 Increase Landscape Connectivity
daptation:
p://birds.audubon.org/birds-climate-change-move
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Conserve More Land
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Conserve More Land
What is the Future Forest? INVESTIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ADAPTATION IN THE GREEN MOUNTAIN STATE
Assisted Colonization
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Species Migrations Assisted Colonization
Increased Pest Invasions
55
What is the Future Forest? Assisted Colonization
INVESTIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS & ADAPTATION IN THE GREEN MOUNTAIN STATE
56
Species Migrations
Increased Pest Invasions
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Do We Act?
True Climate Predictions? False
Yes
No
Massive cost but crisis averted
Catastrophe
Massive cost w/ little benefit
No Change
Climate Change Decision Matrix This decision matrix, popularized by author Greg Craven
58
Adaptation: Reduce greenhouse gas emissions - hahah, like that will ever happen, not with fucking china and india on the verge of becoming first world nations Connect degraded habitats Protect Waterways and Riparian areas Return unused lands to forests Leverage unused space for nursery areas and habitat reconstruction Translocate species - phenotypes from 59
Understanding Forest Impacts In 2012, the USDA updated its hardiness zone maps for the US. The update revealed widespread zone changes that had occurred since the previous update in 1990 Caborit que simpore namuscia doluptatur aut et, qui opta vid quatinveriae vel et venduntis as que pro volorro iur? Harum eos nimoluptas eaquunt dolore estotatur? Antis verum quam, samus, torerum eumque volumquis nos aliqui alia voloraese volescipit dolo evelia que volentium est, nist, nos ipisimusam isto consecae del minvent idemqui dolut untem aut pratur ad molupta ea quunditat dolessi coratem res utatus ex explique parunt accume audam nos
60
4 1
Waterways exposed to more sunlight
Eastern Hemlock provides dense shade cover in riparian areas
Heat Stress
Drought
Adelges tsugae Hemlock Wooly Adelgid
2
5
Figure x.x Possible “domino effect� of climate change on Eastern Hemlock dominated riparian areas
Climate change increases stressors & pests
NO3, Al, Ca2+ H+, K
Base cations and nutrients lost from surrounding forest into streams and rivers
3
6
Hemlock declines in riparian areas
H2O temperatures rise. Waterways face greater acidification and eutrophication from increased nutrient loading. Cold water fish habitat & H2O quality declines
61
UNDERSTANDING FOREST IMPACTS More intense storms greater precipitation
Expansion of pest species: Emerald Ash Borer, Hemlock Wooly Adelgid and Asian Long horn Beetle
Expansion of southern bird species
Warmer wetter winters & warmer drier summers Increased evaporation & transpiration
NO3, Al, Ca2+ H+, K
Increased erosion
62
Expansion of southern tree species Oak, Pine, Hickory
Increased loss of base cations, acids & nutrients from forests
H2O H2O Increased loss of base cations, acids & nutrients from forests
Warming and drying of ponds and streams
Gap creation due to tree mortality and wind throw
Decline of northern bird species Decline of northern tree species Maple, Birch, Beech
Expansion of invasive species Buckthorn, Knotweed, Phragmites, etc.
63