Hans H. Kühl, Dörpling

Is there any sense of complacency about the probability of future use of CBRN weapons? The CBRN threat and resulting challenges

for the European Union

by Hans H. Kühl, Colonel (ret.) Berlin

Despite non-proliferation and disarmament regimes, the value ascribed to CBRN weapons (chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear) in some regions of the world is increasing instead of declining. Certain regional powers, rogue nations and nonstate actors are increasingly eager to obtain CBRN weapons. The confluence of the demise of the Soviet Union, the changing nature of warfare, the globalization of information technology, and the revolution in chemical engineering and biotechnology have also resulted in new CBRN threats.

Trouble spots in the surroundings of Europe Judging from the recent past, future large-scale battlefield use of CBRN weapons is highly unlikely. However, contemporary forms of conflict could again generate incentives to use such weapons on a different scale. This could involve regional powers facing superior opponents in traditional or asymmetric warfare, or actors committing terrorist attacks. Furthermore, the use of toxic chemicals, pathogens, and radioactive substances in improvised CBRN warfare and terrorism, as well as employment of CBRN weapons by governments to fight insurrection, is not a moot option. This did happen in the recent past. The trouble spots in Asia, the Middle East, and most re - cently North Africa are further complicating the situation. North Korea’s, Iran’s, India’s, and Pakistan’s WMD arsenals, as well as the CBRN capabilities Israel and some of its neighbors supposedly have, are likewise not encouraging any sense of complacency about the probability of future use of a wide range of CBRN weapons.

Accidents and natural disasters A CBRN threat to Europe stems not only from regional conflicts and transnational terrorism. Natural accidents or industrial di - sasters can also contribute. Like Fukushima, they are not pre - dictable and can contain risks in unknown dimensions with devastating consequences. When CBRN weapons are used offensively against the military or the population, the consequences can be out of all proportion to the effort. CBRN weapons are valued not only for their physical effects but also for their psychological consequences. The power of these weapons lies not only in the harm they in - flict. It also lies in the extensive and indiscriminate nature of that harm, and the resulting psychological effects of dissolution and despair. Attacking both the military and the population is the hallmark of such attacks, which not only seek to combat opposing forces, but also to eviscerate the political will to use force and to diminish public support. Albeit caused by natural disaster, Fukushima displayed that scheme. The case involved altered public opinion, diminished public support for the use of nuclear energy, and a shift in politics.

Europe needs a balanced comprehensive approach The civil sector and the military must increasingly contend with a wide range of potential CBRN hazards and wea pons at home and abroad. In order to maintain a functioning government, to ensure health and safety, to protect the environment, and to guarantee continuity of operations in an envi ronment threatened by CBRN weapons and hazardous materials, a broader comprehensive and balanced approach is required.

More synchronization within the EU Considering the five stages of the European CBRN Counter Mea - su res Concept, a unified effort for the reinforcement and successful implementation of international legal norms, as well as the synchronization of political, diplomatic, economic, and military threat reduction efforts, clearly fit most into the European portfolio of deterrence and prevention. Protection, response, and recovery are primarily operational level domains held by nations. Consequently, the prime challenge is to closely coordinate with nations and international organizations. Moreover, Europe could provide nations and interested parties the platform for identifying threats and risks, coordinating re - search and development, harmonizing capabilities, and increasing civil-military cooperation. Considering the range and magnitude of potential CBRN threats, as well as the intent and capabilities of contemporary adversaries, the future cannot be predicted. Nor can we predict the precise contours of those threats or how to exactly counter them. Against potential military and terrorist perpetrators, the indisputable requirement for security in the present and future is to be as consistently effective as was deterrence during the Cold War era. Equally challenging is the efficient preparation for overcoming the aftermath of natural disasters and major in - dustrial accidents. To stay relevant in times of shrinking budgets and changing security environments, there is an obvious need to continuously reorient or refocus Europe’s CBRN defense and countermeasures capabilities.