Editorial, Hartmut Bühl

2022 – a year of proof for Europe

2021 was marked by the hope that the Covid-19 pandemic could be brought under control throughout the world. There was also hope that the newly elected the US President could restore order to the world after his predecessor had wreaked havoc internationally and attempted in his own country, with the storming of Congress by his radical supporters on 6th January, to override the democratic process, usurp the office of president and present himself as the saviour of the US. At the start of this new year however, it is clear that the pandemic is still not under control, that the virus is not only causing suffering worldwide, but that our societies also face critical infrastructure breakdowns due to staff shortages. A further source of concern is that the longer the pandemic lasts, the longer disrupted supply chains will hold back global economic recovery and prosperity. On the global stage, it is clear too that the US President has not yet been able to fulfil the hopes placed in him for the restoration of the world order, while Europe continues to wonder what America really wants and what the US can still achieve as a partner and an ally. There is no realistic prospect of a return to normal for the time being, especially as 2022 will see emerging trends taking clearer shape in the world order. In Europe, there are growing concerns about future stability, as alarming events in global politics increase and multiply. They could lead to armed conflicts of international proportion. The world’s foremost military and economic power, the US, has, for the past decade, been withdrawing from its self-imposed role as the global regulator. Afghanistan in August 2021 was a moment of truth that has reinforced the existing mistrust of Washington, even under a new President. China and Russia have taken advantage of these weaknesses to openly demonstrate their intentions to annex Taiwan and Ukraine respectively. As such goals can only be achieved by force, they create uncertainty worldwide. In relation to Putin, it is mainly Europe and NATO that are on the front line, whereas in the Indo-Pacific region, the US is in the process of a strategic reorientation by gaining new regional allies. A region in which Europe is not needed militarily. New strategic equilibria and counterweights will emerge. Europe should concentrate on its strategic tasks in its own vicinity, including Africa and the Middle East and, together with, or in addition to, the Atlantic Alliance, defend stability in such a way as to relieve pressure on the US and leave it freer to focus on its agenda in the Indo-Pacific region. New instabilities are emerging in the Middle East, where Iran’s government – after the unilateral decision of the US to terminate the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) in 2015 – is escaping from the oversight of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran will shortly be able to wind up its uranium enrichment programme and produce its own nuclear weapons, threatening Israel as well as the whole of the Middle East and provoking a new proliferation crisis, as it will be an incentive for the Sunni Arab states like Saudi Arabia but also Turkey, to build their own nuclear weapons. And what about Europe? Its misfortune is its lack of room for manoeuvre in the new powerplay of the great powers. Europe alone cannot protect its geopolitical interests, let alone enforce them. It is not enough for Europe to be powerful economically, it must also become powerful politically and militarily. As the old world order crumbles, there is no other way for Europe to guarantee its interests and security than through its own strength and suitable allies. Europe will become strong if it can play its cards skilfully vis-à-vis the US and NATO, but also Russia, and not buckle under Chinese pressure. Europe must now avoid any marginalisation in geopolitics and prove itself! At this very moment, Member States are joining forces in diplomacy to prevent war in Europe.

Hartmut Bühl

photo: private, LISphoto.com

IMPRESSUM: The European − Security and Defence Union

Headquarters: International Consulting 6, Rue du Château, F 28260 Berchères-sur-Vesgre (FR) E-Mail: hartmut.buehl@orange.fr Publisher and Editor in Chief: Hartmut Bühl, Berchères-sur-Vesgre (FR) Phone: +49/172 32 82 319 E-Mail: hartmut.buehl@orange.fr Deputy Editor-in-Chief: Nannette Cazaubon, Paris (FR) E-Mail: nannette.cazaubon@magazine-the-european.com Editorial Assistant: Céline Angelov, Linz a. Rhein (GE) E-Mail: editorial.assistant.esdu@gmail.com Translator: Miriam Newman-Tancredi, Strasbourg (FR) and London (GB) Layout: Beate Dach, SpreeService, Berlin (GE) Advertisement & Sales: Hartmut Bühl, Berchères-sur-Vesgre (FR) Phone: +49/172 32 82 319 Print: Polyprint GmbH (GE) © 2022 by International Consulting, France

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

Vol. No. 41

Content

3 Editorial, Hartmut Bühl 6 News, Nannette Cazaubon

8–16 In the Spotlight

“Recovery, strength and a sense of belonging”

8 Start of the French EU Presidency Documentation

9 France and Germany – so far apart and yet so close There is no alternative to this tandem by Cyrille Schott and Hartmut Bühl, Strasbourg/Paris

12 Putin needs to receive a convincing answer! Negotiating European security with Russia by Jacques Favin Lévêque, Paris

14 Stop the COVID-19 pandemic! Resources for healthy workplaces by William Cockburn, Bilbao

16 The European Union is striving for more influence in the Arctic A turn in the European Arctic policy by Hartmut Bühl, Paris

17–36 MAIN TOPIC: The rivalry of great powers

Does Europe have a say?

18 The realignment of US geopolitical objectives in the world China is the dominant rival of the US by Prof Thomas Jäger, Cologne

20 What the European Union has to realise in security and defence Acting strategically and pragmatically Interview with Moritz Brake, Bonn

24 A rising China reshapes the Asia-Pacific Competing in the same global system by Ambassador Barry Desker, Singapore

26 Preparing for Taiwan contingencies Maintaining the international order by Hideshi Tokuchi, Tokyo

28 The Yellow Sea in an era of growing Chinese ambitions and South Korea China has the potential to escalate tensions by Dr Eunsook Chung, South Korea

30 India’s sea-based nuclear second-strike options Responding to menaces from China by Debalina Ghoshal, Kolkata

32 New dimensions of Russia-China relations The consequences for stability by Prof Ioan Mircea Pașcu, Bucarest

34 Russia is not a partner, but a political opponent the west needs to reckon with Moscow believes that the EU is weak by Dr Sabine Fischer, Berlin

36 European Parliament Resolution on the Arctic Documentation

The European – Security and Defence Union is the winner of the 2011 European Award for Citizenship, Security and Defence, and was awarded in 2019 the Jury’s Special Prize of the same competition.

37–50 Security and defence

Is European strategic autonomy a reacheable goal?

38 The future of European defence: beyond EU and NATO The EU must define its geopolitical position by Gesine Weber, Paris

40 30 years of the European Union Satellite Centre (SatCen) Supporting the EU’s external action Interview with Sorin Ducaru, Torrejón

44 From strategic autonomy to strategic sovereignty Where is the European defence heading? by Frédéric Mauro, Brussels/Paris

46 Europe and the sea No common geopolitical views Interview with Alain Coldefy, Paris

49 Enhancing resilience – preparing to protect against chemical threats Trust is the major driver by Sebastian Meyer-Plath, Erkrath