Commentary by Karl-Heinz Kamp, Berlin How to deal with the end of reliability? The USA are not dispensable

Commentar y How to deal with the end of reliability? by Dr Karl-Heinz Kamp, President, Federal Academy for Security Policy, Berlin

The recent NATO summit in Brussels, as embarrassing and wasted as it was, brought at least two concrete insights – none of them reassuring though. First, even the last remaining optimist had to realize that Donald Trump will never become a serious politician, coming not even close to what it takes to be the President of the United States. Instead, he will remain the embarrassing populist who cultivates lies and declares contradictions to be logic – neither suited for, nor truly interested in governing the largest military, political and economic power on earth. The loss of America’s moral authority as the former defender of “the West” is already striking. Second, the United States’ international leadership role will decline, partly because the besieged White House will remain in a constant defense mode for the coming months if not years, and partly because of the paralyzing divisions between America’s political elites and society. Time and energy will be consumed by domestic fights and political navel-gazing, instead of developing and implementing coherent policies.

Chancellor Merkel’s advice that Europe has to take its fate in its own hands is as true as it is telling, particularly as it comes from a highly respected leader who typically does not lean towards emotional rhetoric. Indeed, the times where US reliability could be taken for granted are likely to be over. At the same time, swift alternatives are not at hand. Those in Brussels and elsewhere who dream of a true European Union standing fully on its own feet tend to forget the severe crisis the EU has been in for a number of years now. Members in the East are placing their national priorities over a European consensus and are making collective decisions increasingly difficult. Members in the South often blame “Brussels” or the EU for their own incapability and unwillingness to reform. Furthermore, BREXIT has shown that a majority in a key EU state is – rightly or wrongly –no longer convinced that European integration brings prosperity and security. Even the positive results of the recent elections

in France cannot hide the fact that populists in many EU countries are gaining influence by rejecting everything the Union stands for: consensus, commitment andsolidarity.

Hence, disappointment over incompetent leadership on the other side of the Atlantic should not lead to premature conclusions. With regard to security and defense, the United States remains an indispensable partner for Europe particularly when it comes to deterring Russia’s aggressive policies in the East or dealing with the chaos in the Middle East. More common European efforts in the military field are desperately necessary but they cannot replace US capabilities. In that sense the EU term CSDP (Common Security and Defense Policy) is incorrect: “Defense” in the strict sense is provided by NATO together with the United States. EU military efforts are about cooperation, capacity building or common procurement in order to strengthen European capabilities either for defense purposes or for crisis management. Here, even Donald Trump has a point when he urges Europe to spend more on defense – not to please Washington but to build up significantmilitary capabilities.

In times when traditional transatlantic bonds are eroding, the challenge for Europe is threefold. First, it has to improve its military forces not only by providing more resources but also by overcoming national idiosyncrasies for the benefit of common solutions. Second, European leaders have to cooperate with those in the US administration who understand the value of allies and alliances – these are not few. Third, there is a need to explain to the European public the quandary of not writing off the United States even if its President is nothing but a disgrace for the community of liberal democratic nations. Donald Trump may be dispensable – the United States is not.

This article reflects the author’s personal opinions.