Dirk Zickora, Munich The importance of a European Air Power solution The role of space and cyberspace

The importance of a European Air Power solution

Space and cyberspace have become ubiquitous in recent conflicts

by Dirk Zickora, Lieutenant Colonel (ret), Marketing Manager for Combat Air Systems, Airbus Defence and Space GmbH, Munich

The European security landscape is at a crossroads. The range and nature of threats are proliferating, the capabilities of potential adversaries becoming increasingly sophisticated and the way wars are fought evolving. European nations need to recognize this reality and act collectively and decisively. The United States of America is currently the only western nation capable of projecting and delivering decisive and sustainable military power throughout the globe. In contrast, Europe and its individual nation states would be incapable of providing a sustainable conventional resistance to a near-peer threat without the US military component in NATO and its nuclear deterrence umbrella. Availability of independently operable capabilities If a greater European role within the current transatlantic partnership were desired, it would require a skill set and an asset portfolio based on available and independently operable capabilities. At the same time, fair burden sharing within NATO and meeting agreed and declared commitments, both in size and over time, continues to require a high level of resources. However, stretched budgets and a legacy of deferred investments have not improved the European capability landscape and will continue to exert a negative impact on the rejuvenation of Europe´s Air Power. The UK and France can back up certain shortfalls with their national nuclear deterrence capability, but it is only by expanding their air power capabilities that European nations will be able to provide sufficient support to their key NATO partner, the United States. Space and cyberspace have become ubiquitous The world has recently seen a fundamental shift in how wars are fought. The classic domains of warfare like land, air and sea began to coalesce decades ago, with the joint amphibious campaigns in the Pacific and the landings in Normandy and Southern Europe during World War II as early examples. Today, new domains are emerging and interacting with the established ones. Space and cyber warfare have become ubiquitous in recent conflicts, sometimes in support functions, like satellite imagery or communications, sometimes as fields of engagement in their own right with non-kinetic effects like disinformation campaigns, network denial cyber-attacks or malicious network infiltration. To prevail in these multi-domain operations, it will be essential to provide a large enough portfolio of assets to deliver the required effects (kinetic or non-kinetic) and resist similar effects from the adversary with the appropriate level of resilience. Among other things, it is necessary to sustain a robust European airborne Counter-A2AD 1 capability, a skill currently to be found only in the arsenals of the US Navy and the Royal Australian Air Force. Freedom of movement for a nation’s own forces is paramount not only during conflict. Lt Col (ret) Dirk Zickora

is Marketing Manager Combat Air Systems at Airbus Defence and Space GmbH, Manching. Born in 1975, he joined the Luftwaffe in 1995 to fly fighter jets for over 22 years. Before joining Airbus, his last tours were Chief of the Flying Branch and Opposing Forces Coordinator (2013-2018) at the Tactical Leadership Programme in Albacete, Spain, and Staff Officer in the CJFAC Strategy Division at NATO HQ AIRCOM in Ramstein (2018-2019). Photo: private

Denial of use of airspace can be a crucial factor in the positioning and operating of certain High Value Airborne Assets in times of crisis. Considering individual and regional priorities as well as fleet sizes and the value of such assets, a large scale conflict in the Pacific theatre (e.g. hypothetical simultaneous North Korean and Chinese adversarial actions involving the United States) would mean a significant shortage of assets for a potential European or Middle Eastern crisis or conflict at the same time. Currently, the European portfolio of assets is not large enough to fill this gap. Such a capability needs to be provided by multiple user nations, otherwise it creates a bottleneck for future conflicts, especially if only one nation were to develop the capability. From a military point of view, there are a number of key takeaways from a recent study performed by the MITRE Corporation 2 for the Office of the Secretary of Defense of the United States of America. The authors conclude that increased operational readiness can be achieved through increased combat effectivity and efficiency, where a larger portfolio of diverse kinetic and non-kinetic effects increase options for warfighters and decision makers. Furthermore, a higher mission capable rate has the same net effect as a larger fleet. Based on this analysis, investments are paramount in order to raise mission capable rates and to procure more reliable / available platforms. At the same time, smaller fleets of expensive aircraft that are difficult to sustain is an outcome to be avoided. sessment, fleet sizes (combat mass provision, endure attrition, scale effects on maintenance costs), true multi-role capability (jack of all trades and master of none vs. system of systems approach) and economic impact are the predominant factors. Through an effort to pool same type platforms under an umbrella like the recent EEAW 3 model, significant cost savings for operations are feasible, even during times of austerity, while preserving affordable national prerogatives over a specific number of jets. Harnessing the benefits of a large and already existing common fleet like the Eurofighter Typhoon could be the most beneficial strategy. The true multirole capability and enormous potential still to be unlocked provide NATO with an unmatched opportunity. Development synergies and benefits, financial risks and operational flexibility would be shared among partner nations with individual freedom to expand or restrict own capability or accessibility. Neither development nor deployment would be restricted by third party regulations like ITAR, FMS or diverging national policies or priorities. High mission availability rates above 80% are already a reality and would further boost the effectiveness and affordability of this European pillar of NATO Air Power. Approach to strengthen European sovereignty New technologies – even some of those envisioned for a Next Generation Fighter concept – could be introduced and matured on a common, open architecture platform like the Eurofighter Typhoon, enabling a “plug and fight” capability for a Future Combat Air System, which could be opened to other European partners. Such an approach would strengthen and consolidate European sovereignty, its defence industry and technological know-how. A common and compatible platform and system of systems strategy would be a catalyst for and bolster European defence integration. Common connectivity protocols and sufficient bandwidth for network-enabled operational applications would further enhance cooperation across all NATO platforms, including US fighters, both current and future. photo: © Airbus “ The world has recently seen a fundamental shift in how wars are fought.”

Procurement options for future effectivity Based on the analysis above, it follows that an assessment of procurement options needs to be done to ensure delivery of future effectivity, efficiency, connectivity, resilience (conventional and cyber), survivability and sustainability. For this as

1 A2AD: Anti Access Area Denial 2 MITRE U.S. Air Force Aircraft Inventory Study, Unclassified report, 07 Aug 2019, https://bit.ly/33DSWyg 3 European Participating Forces Expeditionary Air Wing

Visit us on Europe’s leading event for European Security and Defence

26. –27. November 2019 Vienna House Andel’s Berlin

Impressions of the BSC 2018

Europe and its external challenges – a 360° approach in uncertain times Partner in 2019: Italy

Highlights Main Programme, e.g.

> HIGH-LEVEL DEBATE: European Security and Regional Stability – coherence in times of epochal transition? > HIGH LEVEL-INTERVIEW: UN Resolution 1325 – Women, Peace and Security > HIGH-LEVEL MILITARY FORUM: The Mediterranean Sea and North Africa – striving for regional stability to enhance European Security > FUTURE FORCES FORUM: The European Defence Architecture – challenges and vulnerabilities versus innovation

Panels, e.g.

> PESCO – a major step of the EU Defence Strategy > Joint and Combined Armed Forces / Multinational Formations in a 360° approach > Terrorism – the future of countering the global threat > Digitization versus Cyber Threats – multidomain operations as part of digital warfare > Military Mobility – Combined Joint Support and Enabling in Europe for larger formations > Arms Control – how to prevent a new arms race in Europe? > Conflict Scenarios of the Future – the impact of digitization

150 Top Speakers, e.g.

Miroslav Lajc˘ák Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of the Slovak Republic

Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide Minister of Foreign Affairs, Norway

General Enzo Vecciarelli Chief of Defence, Italy

Dr Peter Tauber MP Parliamentary State Secretary, German Federal Ministry of Defence

General Claudio Graziano Chairman of the European Union Military Committee

Dr Judit Varga Minister of Justice and Minister of European Affairs, Hungary Niels Annen MP Minister of State, German Federal Foreign Office

General Eberhard Zorn Chief of Defence, Federal Ministry of Defence, Germany

Security and defence

Security and defence cooperation is on the EU’s political agenda. Countering global threats with military means needs new technologies for command and control, hybrid energy and potable water autonomy in operations and excellent capabilities in medical service. The use of robotics has become a reality. But we should not forget that global security and the fight against threats that go beyond national borders also go hand in hand with international cooperation and development policy. This chapter puts the focus on these different aspects.