PDAM Tirta Dharma Kota Malang Pre FS Revision EN by ESP Indonesia

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA KOTA MALANG PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL REVISION

MARCH 2008 This publication was produced by Development Alternatives, Inc. for review by the United States Agency for International Development under Contract No. 497-M-00-05-00005-00

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PDAM TIRTA DHARMA KOTA MALANG PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL REVISION

Title: Program, activity, or project number: Strategic objective number: Sponsoring USAID office and contract number:

PDAM Tirta Dharma - Preliminary Financial Feasibility Analysis of Investment Proposal - Revision. Environmental Services Program, DAI Project Number: 5300201. SO No. 2, Higher Quality Basic Human Services Utilized (BHS). USAID/Indonesia, Contract number: 497-M-00-05-00005-00.

Contractor name:

DAI.

Date of publication:

March 2008.

TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLE ........................................................................................................................IV LIST OF ACRONYMS ...............................................................................................................V 1.

INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 1

ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE (2004-2008) ...................................... 2 2.1. PRODUCTION AND DEMAND ..................................................................................................................2 2.2. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE .......................................................................................................................4 2.2.1. Revenues...........................................................................................................................................................4 2.2.2. Recurrent Costs...............................................................................................................................................4 2.2.3. Tariff...................................................................................................................................................................5 2.2.4. Current Ratio and Cash Flow ......................................................................................................................7 2.3. OUTSTANDING LOANS AND DEBT-SERVICE CAPACITY ........................................................................7

BUDGET FOR 2008 ........................................................................................................... 9 3.1. 3.2.

INVESTMENT PROPOSAL ANALYSIS ....................................................................... 11 4.1. 4.2.

WATER PRODUCTION AND DEMAND ....................................................................................................9 REVENUE AND EXPENSES ..........................................................................................................................9 PHYSICAL TARGETS AND COSTS ........................................................................................................... 11 FINANCING PLAN ................................................................................................................................... 14

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FINANCIAL PROJECTION................................................... 15 5.1. ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 17 5.1.1. Cost of Capital.............................................................................................................................................. 17 5.1.2. Projected Production and Demand ......................................................................................................... 18 5.1.3. Recurrent Costs............................................................................................................................................ 19 5.1.4. Tariff Analysis ............................................................................................................................................... 19 5.1.5. Dividend to Pemda...................................................................................................................................... 20 5.2. FEASIBILITY INDICATORS ........................................................................................................................ 20 5.3. FINANCIAL RESULTS ............................................................................................................................... 20

6. COMPARISON OF KEY FINANCIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF 3 FINANCING SCENARIOS ............................................................................................................................. 21 6.1. 6.2. 6.3. 6.4. 7.

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .......................................................... 25 7.1. 7.2.

DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE ..................................................................................................................... 21 CURRENT RATIO .................................................................................................................................... 22 CASH= NO. OF MONTHS OF OPERATING COSTS .............................................................................. 22 DEBT SERVICE ......................................................................................................................................... 23 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 25 RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................................. 26

ANNEXES ......................................................................................................................... 28 ANNEX A: NOTES ON VISIT TO PDAM KOTA MALANG.................................................................... 28 ANNEX B: NOTES ON THE MEETING WITH PDAM KOTA MALANG............................................ 29 ANNEX C: SCHEDULE OF AMORTIZATION OF OUTSTANDING LOANS OF PDAM KOTA MALANG ............................................................................................................................................................. 32 ANNEX D: INVESMENT PROGRAM OF PDAM KOTA MALANG ....................................................... 33 ANNEX E: PROPOSED REVISION OF IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE PDAM KOTA MALANG40 ANNEX F: WATER DEMAND FORECAST ................................................................................................. 46 ANNEX G: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BOND FINANCING SCHEME FOR INVESTMENT........ 48

ANNEX H: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BOND FINANCING SCHEME FOR INVESTMENT AND LOAN REFINANCING ..................................................................................................................................... 52 ANNEX J: CALCULATION OF INVESTMENT FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ........................................... 61 ANNEX K: PRESENT VALUE OF ALL COSTS RELATED TO FINANCING OPTIONS (IN RP MILLION) ................................................................................................................................................................ 62

III

LIST OF TABLE TABLE 1: BREAKDOWN OF PRODUCTION AND DISTRIBUTION CAPACITY.............................................................3 TABLE 2: WATER PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND WATER LOSSES ............................................................................3 TABLE 3: CONNECTION AND WATER DEMAND .......................................................................................................4 TABLE 4: PDAM OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE COSTS (RP MILLION) ..............................................................5 TABLE 5: PDAM UNIT COSTS (RP PER M3 OF WATER SOLD AT CONSTANT 2006 PRICES) ................................5 TABLE 6: COMPARISON OF OLD AND NEW TARIFFS ................................................................................................6 TABLE 7: HISTORICAL TARIFF ACHIEVEMENT (PER M3 OF WATER SOLD)...............................................................7 TABLE 8: CURRENT RATIO AND CASH FLOW............................................................................................................7 TABLE 9: INDICATORS OF DEBT-SERVICE CAPACITY .................................................................................................8 TABLE 10: WATER PRODUCTION, DEMAND AND WATER LOSSES (2008) ............................................................9 TABLE 11: PDAM FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE IN 2008.......................................................................................... 10 TABLE 12: PDAM UNIT COSTS 2007-2008 (RP PER M3 OF WATER SOLD AT CONSTANT 2007 PRICES) ..... 10 TABLE 13: SCHEDULE FOR INSTALLING NEW CONNECTIONS .............................................................................. 11 TABLE 14: COST OF INVESTMENT PROGRAM (IN RP MILLION) ............................................................................. 13 TABLE 15: COST OF INVESTMENT PROGRAM – 3 YEARS (IN RP MILLION) ........................................................... 13 TABLE 16: FINANCING PLAN (IN RP MILLION NOMINAL) ..................................................................................... 14 TABLE 17: INDICATIVE BOND COMPOSITION (IN RP MILLION NOMINAL).......................................................... 14 TABLE 18: KEY FINANCIAL RESULTS AND INDICATORS BOND FINANCING SCHEME (FOR INVESTMENT) (IN RP MILLION)............................................................................................................................................................ 15 TABLE 19: KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS BOND FINANCING SCHEME (INVESTMENT + LOAN REFINANCING) 16 TABLE 20: FINANCING PLAN AND INDICATIVE LOAN DISBURSEMENT SCHEDULE (IN RP MILLION)................ 16 TABLE 21: AMORTIZATION SCHEDULE OF THE PROPOSED COMMERCIAL LOAN (IN RP MILLION).................. 16 TABLE 22: KEY FINANCIAL INDICATORS COMMERCIAL LOAN FINANCING SCHEME (IN RP MILLION) ............ 17 TABLE 23: WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL .............................................................................................. 18 TABLE 24: PROJECTED PRODUCTION CAPACITY, DISTRIBUTION AND WATER LOSSES ..................................... 18 TABLE 25: PROJECTED CONNECTIONS AND WATER DEMAND ............................................................................ 19 TABLE 26: FEASIBILITY INDICATORS ......................................................................................................................... 20 TABLE 27: SUMMARY OF COMPARISON .................................................................................................................... 24

LIST OF ACRONYMS DDI DSCR ESP FIFO FIRR lcd l/sec NPV NRW PDAM Rp USAID WACC

Direktorat Dana Investasi (Investment Financing Directorate of the Ministry of Finance) Debt Service Coverage Ratio Environmental Services Program First In First Out Financial Internal Rate of Return liters per capita per day liters per second Net Present Value Non-Revenue Water Perusahaan Daerah Air Minum (local/municipal water supply enterprise) Rupiah (currency of the Republic of Indonesia) United States Agency for International Development Weighted Average Cost of Capital

1. INTRODUCTION This report presents an assessment of the investment program of PDAM Kota Malang. Prepared under the auspices of the Environmental Services Program (ESP) and funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), it aims to serve ultimately as basis for mobilizing loans from domestic commercial banking system to finance the implementation of the said investment program. The report uses as references the following: • Audited Financial Statements of PDAM Kota Malang for the years 2004 to 2006 • Un-audited results of operation in 2007 • Work Plan and Budget for 2008 • Corporate Plan (Rencana Pengembangan Usaha) 2005-2009. In addition, several visits was made to the PDAM offices in March and April 2008 to have discussions on the investment program from 2009-2012 and assumptions to be used in the analysis with officials from its finance and planning divisions. The report examines how the investment program will affect the future operation of the water enterprise mainly from the financial standpoint. For this purpose, a 10-year financial projection was prepared. On 13 March 2008, the preliminary results of the financial projection were presented to PDAM management. In the discussion that followed, the assumptions underlying the projection were either confirmed or modified. On 3 April 2008, a further presentation to PDAM management was delivered to show the results of the financial analysis and projections of the investment program, using two alternatives for financing: corporate bond or commercial loan. The notes on the aforementioned presentation are presented as Annex A. The report can be divided essentially into the following parts: • Historical performance of the PDAM from 2004 to 2007 • Work plan and budget for 2008 • Investment program for 2009-2012 • Highlights of the results of the financial projection, including indicators of the feasibility of the investment program • Conclusions on the proposed investment program and recommendations on the future operation of the water supply enterprise.

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

2. ANALYSIS OF HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE (2004-2008) In the presentation that follows, figures for 2004-2006 are based on the PDAM’s audited financial statements. Those for 2007 are based on the un-audited operating results made available by PDAM management.

2.1. PRODUCTION AND DEMAND In 2005 PDAM Kota Malang had in its possession abstraction permits (surat ijin pengambilan air or SIPA) allowing it to draw water up to 2,058 liters per second (l/sec) from a total of 15 sources. Through the years, the PDAM has installed production capacities to exploit such sources, the most recent of which is Wendit III with a rated capacity of 480 l/sec. Actual production in 2005 was around 40.1 million m3, which translates to a production capacity of only 1,272.12 l/sec. Wendit I and Wendit II remained the backbone of the PDAM’s production capacity with combined contribution of 62% of total production in 2005. These facilities are however old: Wendit I was installed in 1982 and Wendit II in 1992. Each had an original design capacity of 480 l/sec, but their yields, which could be reflective of the other production facilities as well, had deteriorated through the years to only 400 l/sec for Wendit I and 388 l/sec for Wendit II. Wendit III was completed in, and became operational only at the start of the last quarter of, 2005. Thus, its contribution to production was only an equivalent of 36.9 l/sec. In its present condition, the facility has a maximum yield of only 240 l/sec as only two of the required four pumps, each with a capacity of 120 l/sec, have been installed. Again based on actual production in 2005, the PDAM’s sources consist of 4.6% groundwater, 18.8% spring, and 76.6% surface water. By location, 68.9% of these are within the administrative boundaries of Kabupaten Malang, 19.4% in Kota Batu, and 11.7% in Kota Malang itself. A more detailed breakdown of PDAM Kota Malang’s production volume and capacity is presented in Table 1.

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PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Table 1: Breakdown of Production and Distribution Capacity No. Name of Facility 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15

Binangun Pipa Lama Binangun Pipa Baru Karangan Sumbersari Wendit I Wendit II Wendit III Banyuning Badut I Badut II Badut III Sumbersari I Sumbersari II Istana Dieng TPA Supit Urang Total

Production Distribution Type of (m3) Source (m3) 2,817,454 4,712,685 1,176,649 457,273 12,604,053 12,246,695 1,164,240 3,080,435 51,382 454,425 574,470 83,374

2,676,581 4,477,051 1,117,817 434,409 11,973,850 11,634,360 1,106,028 2,926,413 48,813 431,704 545,747 79,205

510,466 183,825 40,117,426

484,943 174,634 38,111,555

Location

Spring Spring Surface water Surface water Surface water Surface water Surface water Surface water Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater Groundwater

Kota Malang Kota Batu Kab Malang Kab Malang Kab Malang Kab Malang Kab Malang Kota Batu Kota Malang Kota Malang Kota Malang Kota Malang Kota Malang Kota Malang Kota Malang

Capacity (l/sec) 89.34 149.44 37.31 14.50 399.67 388.34 36.92 97.68 1.63 14.41 18.22 2.64 0.00 16.19 5.83 1,272.12

Daily service is 24 hours in most of the coverage area. Due to lack of reservoirs, however, water pressure is uneven, with connections nearest to or tapping main pipes getting steady supply. Non-revenue water (NRW) ranged between 29% in 2003, increasing steeplyto 42.1% in 2006 and remaining high at 41.8% in 2007. The plant utilization factor reached 85.6% in 2007, indicating connection installation capacity still exists. Data on the PDAMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s production capacity and related aspects are shown in Table 2. Table 2: Water Production, Demand and Water Losses 2004 Installed Capacity (l/sec) Production Capacity (l/sec) Production Volume (m3/year) Distribution Volume (m3/year) Volume Sold to Consumers (m3/year) Water Losses (%) Ratio of Production to Consumption Plant Utilization Factor

1,558 1,288 40,618 38,964 27,667 29.0% 1.03 82.7%

2005 1,558 1,266 39,925 38,112 27,153 28.8% 1.09 81.3%

2006 1,558 1,304 41,123 39,060 22,613 42.1% 1.37 83.7%

2007 1,558 1,334 42,074 40,057 23,314 41.8% 1.05 85.6%

2008 Budget 1,558 1,334 42,074 40,057 24,078 39.9% 1.05 85.6%

Kota Malang had a total population in 2007 of 815,920 with a projected annual growth rate of 0.99%. The service area population stood at 575,000 with the same growth rate as that of the city as a whole. In order to optimise utilization of the newly operational production capacity, the PDAMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s corporate plan targets 5,000 additional connections in 2005, 8,000 each in 2006 and 2007, 7,000 in 2008, and 5,000 in 2009. However, on average, the number of connections has grown by a mere 2% annually since 2004, ranging from 1,750 to 2,018 connections due to delay in the extension of the distribution pipes. PDAM plans to install around 31 km of distribution pipes in 2008 and targets a 4% increase in connection s (3,389) in 2008. ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Household connections represented nearly 90% of total connections and 85% of consumption in 2007. PDAM calculates its service coverage on the basis of 6 persons per household connection and 100 persons per public tap. The service coverage ratios in 2007 were 81% of the total population (the designated service coverage area?). The coverage ratio has thus improved by only 1% in the last three years. Domestic consumption declined from 138 l/s in 2005 to only 112l/s in 2007. Average consumption decreased from 27 m3/con/month in 2005 to around 22 m3/con/month in 2006. This unexpected decrease could be due to some of the following factors: (i) Increase in water supply from 16 hours to 24 hours. Customers who used to have less than 24 hours service may have left open their reservoir/tank to store water. (ii) Inaccurate water meters. This also explains a hike in water loss in 2006, beside rehabilitation of some distribution pipes as one cause. Data pertaining to connection and water demand are presented in Table 3. Table 3: Connection and Water Demand 2004 Social Domestic Average Domestic Consumption (m3/month) Non-Domestic Average Consumption (m3/month) Total Connections Average Consumption Annual Increase

2005

2006

2007

2008

1,508 76,174 26.1

1,634 77,871 24.8

1,659 79,598 19.9

1,700 81,214 20.2

1,714 84,302 20.1

3,581 56.2 81,263 28.4

3,566 66.3 83,071 27.2 1,808

3,832 57.0 85,089 22.1 2,018

3,926 53.9 86,840 22.4 1,751

4,213 52.2 90,229 22.2 3,389

2.2. FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE 2.2.1.

REVENUES

The PDAM managed to maintain profitable operations each year during the period under review. Net income declined, however, by 4% in 2006 in spite of the 2005 tariff increase. The decline was caused by a reduction in the volume of water sold from 27,153 million m3 in 2005 to 22.613 million m3 in 2006. It recovered in 2007 when PDAM applied a new tariff rate effective January 2007, following the Permendagri 23/2006 guideline. Based on unaudited figures, net income in 2007 amounted to Rp13,858 million, or an improvement of 40% compared to 2006 at Rp 9.871million, with a nominal average tariff increase of 23%.

2.2.2.

RECURRENT COSTS

Personnel cost accounted for the biggest share of operating expenses, averaging 46.6% of the total during the four-year period. Overhead, power, and maintenance materials had significant shares of 15.3%, 21.6%, and 12.5% respectively.

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Table 4: PDAM Operation and Maintenance Costs (Rp million) 2004

2005 %

Personnel Power Chemicals

2007 (Un-audited)

2006 %

Average

16,919

49.8%

18,651

46.9%

19,463

44.6%

20,391

45.2%

46.6%

7,100

20.9%

8,883

22.3%

9,876

22.7%

9,294

20.6%

21.6%

0.3%

0.2%

150

0.3%

174

0.4%

0.3%

Maintenance Materials

3,630

10.7%

4,679

11.8%

6,407

14.7%

5,883

13.0%

12.5%

Overhead

5,188

15.3%

6,022

15.1%

6,259

14.4%

7,390

16.4%

15.3%

Bad Debts

363

1.1%

424

1.1%

0.0%

512

1.1%

Raw Water

666

2.0%

1,053

2.6%

1,435

3.3%

1,476

3.3%

33,951

100.0%

39,790

100.0%

43,590

100.0%

45,118

100.0%

Total

In real terms, recurrent costs were increasing at an average rate of 6% during the analysis period. The highest increase at 33% was for chemicals, followed by raw water and maintenance at respectively 28% and 17%. These increases were mostly affected by high increases in 2006 due to a drop in volume of water consumption from 27m3/con/month to only 22m3/con/month. The PDAMâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s historical recurrent costs are shown in Table 5. Table 5: PDAM Unit Costs (Rp per m3 of Water Sold at Constant 2006 Prices) 2004

2005

2006

2007 (Un-audited)

Inc./(Dec.) 2005

2006

2007

Ave

Personnel

763.4

732.2

860.7

817.4

-4%

18%

-5%

Power (Operational)

320.4

348.7

436.8

372.6

25%

-15%

Chemicals

3.9

3.1

6.6

7.0

-20%

115%

33%

Maintenance Materials

163.8

183.7

283.3

235.8

12%

54%

-17%

17%

Overhead

234.1

236.4

276.8

296.3

17%

30.1

41.3

63.4

59.2

37%

54%

-7%

28%

1,515.6

1,545.5

1,927.6

1,788.1

25%

-7%

25%

-7%

Raw Water Total % Year-on-Year Change

2.2.3.

TARIFF

As mentioned,above, the tariff was adjusted effective 1 January 2007, using the new guideline on tariff setting, Permendagri 23/2006. A comparison of the old and new tariff structures is presented in Table 6.

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PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Table 6: Comparison of Old and New Tariffs TYPE OF CONNECTION/ CUSTOMER

GROUP I SOCIAL

GROUP II HOUSEHOLDS

GROUP III INSTITUTIONS

GROUP IV COMM’L

GROUP V INDUSTRY

WATER TANK

BULK WATER

IA Public water facilities IB Social institutions IC Assoc., schools

IIA Very low cost IIB Low cost IIC Middleclass IID Along main roads, exclusive complexes IIE Mixed residentialbusiness

OLD TARIFF (As of 1 April 2005) In Rp 0-10 m3 11-20 m3 >20 m3 1,050

1,150

1,250

1,050

1,250

1,300

1,050

1,300

1,600

1,300

2,050

2,900

1,600

2,150

3,250

1,750

2,550

3,600

2,750

4,000

2,150

2,900

5,550

IIIA Tertiary educational institutions

1,600

2,550

3,650

IIIB Gov’t offices and hospitals

1,900

Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Group 4 Group 5 0-50,000 M3 >50,000 M3

GROUP I

GROUP II 1,900

IVA Along tertiary roads IVB Along secondary roads IVC Along main roads IVD Big establishments IVA Small to medium IV B Large

TYPE OF CONNECTION/ CUSTOMER

GROUP III 2,750

4,550

3,400

4,250

5,700

6,450

5,800

7,750

9,050

6,450

9,050

10,100

7,650

8,400

10,750

8,650

10,100 Distance (km) >10-20 46,000 82,000 110,000 170,000 336,000

12,250

S-A Public water facilities S-B Social institutions S-C Assoc., schools HH-A: road < 3m width HH-B: road 3-6 m width

HH-C: road 6 9 m width

HH-D: Along main roads, exclusive complexes HH-E: Mixed residentialbusiness Inst A: University (public/private) Inst B: Gov’t offices and hospitals Com A: road 68 m width Com B: road 810 m width Com C: road >10 width Com D: BUMN/BUMD, private banks Ind A:Small Industry Ind B:Largel Industry

NEW TARIFF (As of 1 Jan 2007 In Rp 0-10 m3 >10 m3 1,250

1,550

1,250

1, 600

1,250

1,900

1,500

2,300

1,700

2,800

1,900

3,000

2,300

3,600

2,600

3,800

2,300

3,800

2,600

5,700

3,800

5,700

6,100

7,600

7,200

8,700

8,000

9,500

8,700

10,300

9,900

12,200

Remark

The new tariff is no longer applying minimum charge for minimum consumpt ion of 10 m3

6,450 8,150 Special: not classified in groupI, II and III

Tariff rate will be based on the agreement

GROUP IV

0-10 42,000 52,000 76,000 136,000 306,000 1,300 1,950

>20 50,000 116,000 182,000 258,000 430,000

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Distance (km) 0-10 >10 WATER TANK Group 1 Group 2 Group 3

50,000 58,000 85,000

55,000 88,000 125,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

PDAM Kota Malang has maintained the practice of adjusting the tariff every two years. This review, therefore, encompasses two adjustments, in the years 2005 and the latest at the end of 2006. In real terms, weighted average tariff increased by 18% in 2007, causing the aforementioned increase in net income by 40%. The next tariff increase is scheduled for 2009, and expected to be 20%. Every year during the period under review, the weighted average tariff remained above that required for full-cost recovery as defined by Permendagri 23/2006 and yielded a reasonable profit margin, as shown in the following table. Table 7: Historical Tariff Achievement (Per m3 of Water Sold) 2004 Average Tariff Increase (%) Weighted Average Tariff (Rp) Base Tariff (Rp) Full Cost Recovery Permendagri 23/2006) Extent of Full-Cost Recovery (%) Full Tariff (Operating Exp+Depr+Interesr+10% ROA) Extent of FullTariff Recovery (%)

2.2.4.

2005

2006

2007 (Un-audited)

1,734

31% 2,280

23% 2,799

18% 3,303

1,427

1,874

2,451

2,568

121%

122%

114%

129%

1,529

1,991

2,583

2,726

113%

115%

108%

121%

CURRENT RATIO AND CASH FLOW

The PDAM’s current ratio was good in 2004 and 2005 at 3.44 and 2.58 respectively, but plunged into 0.69 in 2006 and even lower at 0.60 in 2007 when two loans (from BNI and PT Sumber Kencana Perkasa) are due in 2006, much lower than the required minimum level of 1.5 as shown in Table 8. Table 8: Current Ratio and Cash Flow 2004 Current Ratio Cash = No. of Mo. of Operating Exp.

2005

3.44 0.72

2.58 0.31

2006 0.69 0.16

2007 (Un-audited) 0.60 0.67

2.3. OUTSTANDING LOANS AND DEBTSERVICE CAPACITY In 2007, PDAM Kota Malang had total outstanding loans of Rp25,974 million consisting of the following: •

Loan from the former Direktorat Dana Investasi (DDI) of the Ministry of Finance under contract No. RDA 60/DDI/1991 with a principal amount of Rp 10,056 million. The loan had a payment term of 30 years, including a five-year grace period, and an interest of 9% per annum. The balance in 2007 was Rp3,154 million of which about Rp 2,345 million is principal and Rp 0,809 million, accumulated interest. The loan is expected to be fully repaid by 1 November 2011.

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PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

•

A shortfall in the payment to PT Sumber Kencana Perkasa for the construction of Wendit III production facility amounting to Rp 19,245 million, for which the two parties agreed that the PDAM would pay the amount in installments beginning December 2005 with an interest of 11% per annum. The installments are scheduled to be completed by the end of 2008. The loan outstanding at the end of 2007 amounted to Rp4,500 million. Loan from Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI) amounting to Rp 26,719 million with an interest rate of 15.5% per annum and a repayment period of 93 months, including 21 months of grace period. This loan is projected to be fully amortized by 2011. The loan was disbursed in two tranches, the first amounting to Rp 13,500 million in 2004 and the second in 2005. The repayment of this loan started in 2006. The balance in 2007 was Rp18,319 million..

The schedules for amortizing PDAM’s outstanding loans are presented in Annex C. The PDAM has always been able to make timely payments of both principal and interest of the aforementioned loans. The PDAM’s debt service coverage ratio remained at a quite safe level, although it declined from 3.63 in 2006 to 2.25 in 2007. The ratio of debt to total capitalization varied only slightly,from 41.1% to 60.6%, as shown in Table 9. Table 9: Indicators of Debt-Service Capacity 2004 DSCR Based on Net Revenue Debt to Total Capitalization

2005

34.80 41.1%

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25.04 60.6%

2006 3.63 56.9%

2007 (Un-audited) 2.25 47.3%

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

3. BUDGET FOR 2008 3.1. WATER PRODUCTION AND DEMAND PDAM projects that production capacity and demand for 2008 will not vary much from 2007. Assuming that the average consumption stays the same as in 2007, with the additional 3,389 connections, water production is projected at 42,074 m3 and the volume of water sales 24,078 m3. NRW for the year is estimated at 39.9%, a 2% decrease as the result of distribution pipe and water meter replacements. The plant utilization factor will remain at 85.6%. Table 10: Water Production, Demand and Water Losses (2008) 2007 Installed Capacity (l/sec) Production Capacity (l/sec) Production Volume (m3/year) Distribution Volume (m3/year) Volume Sold to Consumers (m3/year) Water Losses (%) Ratio of Production to Consumption Plant Utilization Factor No. of Connection No. of Additional Connections

1,558 1,334 42,074 40,057 23,314 41.8% 1.05 85.6% 86,840

2008 Budget 1,558 1,334 42,074 40,057 24,078 39.9% 1.05 85.6% 90,229 3,389

Based on the investment program prepared by the PDAM’s technical department, a total of 3,389 connections will be installed during the year. The total number of connections will thus increase to 90,229, about 95% of which will be for households. Domestic coverage ratios will thus reach 82.4% for the service area.

3.2. REVENUE AND EXPENSES PDAM projects that net income will decline slightly by 11% from Rp13,858 to Rp 12,292 million, due to increases in personnel cost and the raw water tariff. PDAM plan to increase the salary by 15% each year. PDAM Kota Malang is working on the amendement of the MOU on the retribution for the raw water with Kota Batu and Kabupaten Malang. It is projected that the average increase of the retribution of raw water will increase by 30%. The PDAM’s projections for 2008 are shown in Table 11.

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Table 11: PDAM Financial Performance in 2008

Water Revenue Non-Water Revenues Total Operating Revenues Operating Expenses Non Operating Revenues (nett) EBITDA Corporate Tax Net Profit Average Tariff (Rp.m3) Average Cost (Rp.m3) Current Ratio Debt:Debt+Equity Ratio DSCR #Days Account Receivable Cash= No. of Months of Operating Costs Full Cost Recovery Achievement

Actual 2007 77,005 2,216 79,221 45,118 150 34,253 5,641 13,858 3,303 2,568 0.60 47.3% 2.25 45 0.67 124%

Budget 2008 75,472 5,297 80,768 49,675 121 31,215 5,241 12,292 3,134 2,631 1.14 39.4% 2.29 50 0.09 101%

Table 12: PDAM Unit Costs 2007-2008 (Rp per m3 of Water Sold at Constant 2007 Prices) 2007 Actual Personnel Power (Operational) Chemicals Maintenance Materials Overhead Raw Water Total

874.6 398.6 7.5 252.3 317.0 63.3 1,913.3

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2008 Budget 976.4 361.9 9.3 206.2 241.5 121.5 1,916.8

Inc./(Dec.) 12% -9% 25% -18% -24% 92% 0.2%

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4. INVESTMENT PROPOSAL ANALYSIS 4.1. PHYSICAL TARGETS AND COSTS Previously the investment program consisted basically of three components: extension of the distribution network by a total length of 126,113 m; construction of a total of eight reservoirs with combined capacity of 8,250 m3; and installation of four pumps with combined capacity of 395 l/sec; all scheduled to be implemented during the period of 2005 – 2009. PDAM decided to postpone the implementation of the program to 2007 due to inadequate internal cash generation and the absence of external sources of financing. Nonetheless, to keep up with the water supply demand, several components in the investment plan were undertaken in 2007: construction of three reservoirs with a total capacity of 2,750 m3; an extension of the distribution network by 50,495 m, and installation of a 110 l/sec pump. The financing source came partly from Pemda Kota Malang and partly from PDAM internal cash. Now that one loan will be paid off this year (2008), PDAM intends to proceed with the remaining substantial part of the investment program and, based on the current progress and needs, some components have been added. The implementation plan has also been rescheduled for 2009-2012. The updated investment program now consists of: an extension of the distribution network by 68,477m; construction of four reservoirs with combined capacity of 8,000m3; installation of 15 pumps with capacity ranging from 20 to 110 l/sec; rehabilitation of 10,243m asbestos pipe; NRW reduction program and installation of an Asset Information Management System. Based on the data made available by the PDAM’s technical planning department, a total of 20,000 connections are targeted from 2009 to 2012, as indicated in Table 13 Table 13: Schedule for Installing New Connections

Yearly Increase Cumulative

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

4,000 4,000

5,000 9,000

5,000 14,000

5,000 19,000

1,000 20,000

PDAM has targeted a total of 110,000 connections by 2013 in order to achieve the MDG’s target of 90% of service coverage. In addition, it is also assumed that PDAM will implement a connection program over and above the foregoing five-year investment program that will generate 100 new connections per year from 2014 onward. The investment program provided by the PDAM’s technical department, which includes physical targets and their corresponding costs, is provided in Annex. The base cost of the updated program is estimated at Rp 109,527 million. Reservoirs account for 20% or Rp 22,000 million, distribution networks for 38% or Rp41,963 million, pumps for 10% or Rp11,081 million and the remaining 31% or Rp34,484 million are for pipes rehabilitation, tertiary pipes for house connections, NRW program and Asset Information Management System. ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

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WILAYAH PELAYANAN SISTEM UTAMA

RES. BANGKON

kel. bale arjosari

ds. tasikmadu

ds. tunggulwulung

kel. polowijen

kel. tanjungsekar

kel. arjosari kel. tlogomas kel. mojolangu

RES. TLOGOMAS kel. dinoyo

kel. merjosari

kel. purwodadi

RES. MOJOLANGU

kel. jatimulyo

kel. blimbing

kel. tulusrejo

RES. BETEK

kel. pandanwangi

kel. ktw gede

kel. Karang besuki

kel. penanggungan kel. sumbersari

kel. purwantoro kel. lowokwaru

WENDIT 1

kel. samaan

kel. pisang candi

kel. rampal clkt

kel. bunulrejo

kel. Oro oro dowo

kel.

gading kasri kel. klojen kel. kesatrian kel. bareng kel. kauman

kel. bandulan kel.

kel. mulyorejo

kel. cemorokandang

kel. kel. kasin sukoharjo

tanjungrejo kel. sukun

kel. jodipan

kel. polehan kel. madyopuro

kel. kotalama

kel. ciptomulyo

kel. Bandung rejosari

kel. sawojajar

kel. kdl dalem

kel. lesanpuro kel. Kedung kandang

kel. mergosono

RES. BURING

kel. Bakalan Krajan

kel. buring kel. gadang

kel.

kel. bumiayu

kebonsari kel. wonokoyo

WILAYAH PELAYANAN RESERVOIR TLOGOMAS

kel. tlogowaru

WILAYAH PELAYANAN RESERVOIR BETEK WILAYAH PELAYANAN RESERVOIR MOJOLANGU

kel. arjowinangun

WILAYAH PELAYANAN RESERVOIR BURING WILAYAH PELAYANAN RESERVOIR BANGKON WILAYAH PELAYANAN WENDIT I

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The yearly breakdown of the investment program by cost component is presented in Table 14. Table 14: Cost of Investment Program (In Rp Million) Items

2008

2009

2010

2011

Reservoir 0 5,500 2,750 13,750 Pipes 3,927 8,790 17,962 5,216 Pumps 3,366 7,715 0 0 Tertiary Pipes 2,315 2,315 2,315 2,315 NRW Program 0 0 0 9,650 AIMS 0 0 9,500 0 Total, Base Prices 9,608 24,320 32,527 30,931 Financial Contingencies 0 1,702 4,713 6,961 Total, Current Prices Incl. All 9,608 26,023 37,240 37,891 Contingencies Note: - Base price based on 2008 constant price. - Unit price incl. physical contingencies and DED for reservoirs.

2012

Total

0 9,827 0 2,315 0 0 12,142 3,774

22,000 45,723 11,081 11,573 9,650 9,500 109,527 17,150

% of Total 16% 34% 8% 7% 9% 7% 81% 19%

15,916

126,677

100%

In the case of the financing source for the implementation of the program, PDAM will like to access the capital market when its financial condition is considered eligible. A corporate rating will be undertaken around April 2008. However, longer term of construction of more than 3 years is not preferable for capital market financing. The implementation period has thus been shortened to three years, from 2009 to 2011, with the investment for 2008 carried over to the succeeding year and the investment for 2012 speeded up to 2011 and its cost correspondingly reallocated. The yearly breakdown of the investment program by cost component with tightened schedule is presented in Table 15. Table 15: Cost of Investment Program â&#x20AC;&#x201C; 3 years (In Rp Million) Items

2009

2010

2011

Reservoir Pipes Pumps Tertiary Pipes NRW Program AIMS Total, Base Prices Financial Contingencies Total, Current Prices incl. All Contingencies

5,500 12,717 11,081 4,629 0 0 33,928 2,375

16,500 29,777 0 3,472 4,825 9,500 54,574 9,284

0 3,229 0 3,472 4,825 0 11,526 2,594

22,000 45,723 11,081 11,573 9,650 9,500 109,527 14,253

% of Total 18% 37% 9% 8% 9% 8% 88% 12%

36,303

73,358

14,120

123,780

100%

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Total

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

4.2. FINANCING PLAN Two alternatives of financing are examined. A corporate bond is the first option if PDAM financial performance is eligible to access the capital market. The second option is a loan from a domestic commercial bank if the credit rating is not appropriate for a bond issue. This external source is proposed to finance about 74% or Rp 91,597 million of the total investment cost. The balance will be covered by Pemda’s equity injection and PDAM’s internal cash generation. A simulation for each type of financing has been made and is shown in the attached projection. Table 16: Financing Plan (In Rp Million Nominal) Description Loan: (Commercial Bank /Bond) Pemda’s Equity PDAM own cash

Total

% of Total

2009

2010

2011

91,597

74.0%

26,864

54,285

10,449

24,756 7,427 123,780

20.0% 6.0% 100.0%

7,261 2,178 36,303

14,672 4,401 73,358

2,824 847 14,120

The financing portions are indicative, although PDAM has confirmed its own portion. The Local Government is working on a new Perda for its equity contribution of Rp75 billion (estimate). A meeting to decide the actual amount and the disbursement process is scheduled in August 2008 after the election of the Mayor in June 2008. Bond The implementation of the investment program will be financed through a bond offering, projected to be mobilized in the first semester of 2009, at prevailing market interest rates assumed to be 12.5% per annum with a tenure of 10 years. PDAM has to set aside a sinking fund at 10% of total bond value per annum to guarantee that there will be enough money to pay for the principal at the end of the bond period. There are two (2) possible scenarios for the use of the bond: i. To finance the investment ii. To finance the investment and to refinance the outstanding balance of the loan from BNI (approximately Rp13.9 billion). Table 17: Indicative Bond Composition (In Rp Million Nominal)

91,597 1,832 675 2,217 2,052

Investment + Refinance 105,517 2,110 777 2,554 2,364

98,373

113,322

Investment Amount Underwriter’s fee Credit rating fee Enhancement fee Bond Issuance

2.00% 0.74% 2.42% 2.24%

Bond Value

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5. HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FINANCIAL PROJECTION The analysis focuses on the years 2009 to 2018, the time slice that is considered critical as it corresponds to the period for implementing the investment program and the tenure of the bond. The following table shows the financial projection for bond financing scheme to finance only the investment. Table 18: Key Financial Results and Indicators Bond Financing Scheme (for investment) (In Rp million) Year 2009 Water Revenue

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

92,988 104,866 120,499 136,399 154,570 168,255 184,405 199,766 219,050

Non-Water Revenues

6,812

Total Operating Rev. Operating Expenses

65,971

72,578

81,281

89,468

14,352

1,277

1,975

3,311

6,018

Non Operating Rev. (nett)

2015

8,311

8,539

9,672

4,465

3,056

3,359

3,630

2018 237,507

3,986

4,401

99,799 113,177 129,038 146,071 159,035 171,311 187,764 203,396 223,036

241,908

58,828

150,611

98,551 110,435 121,710 134,295 13,982

24,162

36,837

32,971

EBITDA

41,069

61,558

57,738

66,766

72,878

78,778

91,312 105,849 125,578

124,267

EBIT

31,377

51,865

45,461

50,087

55,353

60,859

72,972

104,480

EBT

16,917

38,065

32,513

37,633

42,898

48,405

60,518

74,605

93,852

92,026

Corporate Tax

5,050 11,867

11,395 26,671

9,729 22,784

11,265 26,368

12,845 30,054

14,497 33,909

18,130 42,388

22,356 52,248

28,131 65,722

27,583 64,443

3,482 3,107

3,760 3,208

4,112 3,337

4,440 3,594

4,844 3,744

5,235 4,012

5,733 4,391

6,206 4,751

6,799 5,153

7,366 5,671

63.26%

62.91% 60.23% 59.59%

57.88%

58.57%

59.89% 60.93%

61.31%

63.41%

83.15% 8.14 53.9% 69.2% 2.17 19,761 2.08 12.8% 48

79.05% 75.79% 75.59% 1.77 1.92 2.59 44.1% 39.8% 37.0% 60.0% 54.7% 52.1% 3.80 3.55 4.07 19,344 17,961 12,297 3.18 3.21 3.02 25.4% 18.9% 19.3% 46 45 45

75.11% 3.52 34.4% 49.4% 4.50 12,297 3.29 19.4% 45

75.26% 4.39 31.8% 46.7% 4.95 12,297 3.56 20.2% 45

75.22% 75.20% 4.93 5.42 29.1% 26.3% 43.9% 40.8% 5.93 7.08 12,297 12,297 4.13 4.78 23.0% 26.2% 45 45

74.44% 5.76 23.5% 37.5% 8.65 12,297 5.67 30.0% 45

75.59% 4.58 0.0% 0.0% 8.50 110,670 2.41 27.1% 45

2.6 123%

4.2 122%

9.9 122%

9.2 90%

Net Profit Average Tariff (Rp.m3) Average Cost (Rp.m3) Operating Ratio: - O&M Costs/Water Rev. - O&M+Depr+Int. Costs/Operating Rev. Current Ratio Debt Ratio to Total Assets Debt:Debt+Equity Ratio EBIT/Interest Debt Service DSCR Net profit/water revenue #Days Acc. Receivable Cash= No. of Months of Operating Costs FCR Achievement

9.6 114%

1.2 118%

0.6 122%

1.1 122%

6.0 122%

87,059 106,306

8.0 122%

Using the same assumptions, the use of bond to finance the investment plus refinancing the existing loan gives only a slightly different result in the financial indicators. The key differences are the three (3) indicators mostly affected by the financing scheme: (i) DSCR, (ii) Current Ratio and (iii) Cash=#No. of Months of Operating Costs, as shown below. ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

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Table 19: Key Financial Indicators Bond Financing Scheme (Investment + Loan Refinancing) Year

Current Ratio Debt Service DSCR Cash= No. of Months of Operating Costs

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

9.05 31,149 1.32

2.19 16,413 3.87

2.64 15,110 3.82

3.20 14,166 2.62

4.05 14,165 2.86

4.77 14,165 3.20

5.27 14,165 3.68

5.72 14,165 4.24

6.03 4.57 14,165 127,487 4.99 2.06

10.2

2.6

2.4

2.5

3.6

5.0

6.6

8.4

10.1

8.8

Commercial Loan Terms of the loan are based on the most recent experience of PDAM Kota Malang in accessing a similar funding source. The repayment period is seven years, including a two-year grace period. The prevailing interest rate is lower now at 14%. The disbursement of the loan is assumed to start in 2009 commensurate with the start of implementation of the investment program, as presented in Table 20. Table 20: Financing Plan and Indicative Loan Disbursement Schedule (In Rp Million)

Project Loan Disbursement Pemdaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s Equity PDAM own cash Total

% of Total

2009

2010

2011

Total

26,864 7,261 2,178

54,285 14,672 4,401

10,449 2,824 847

91,597 24,756 7,427

74.0% 20.0% 6.0%

36,303

73,358

14,120

123,780

100.0%

Based on the assumed terms, the schedule for amortizing the loan is as presented in Table 21.. Table 21: Amortization Schedule of the Proposed Commercial Loan (In Rp Million)

Annual Dibsursement Cumulative Disbursement

2009

2010

2011

26,864

54,285

10,449

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

26,864

81,149

91,597

16,793

18,319

1,527

3,448

10,728

11,722

9,297

6,732

4,168

1,603

Loan Balance

26,864

81,149

74,805

56,485

38,166

19,846

1,527

Total Debt Service

3,448

10,728

28,515

27,617

25,052

22,487

19,922

1,544

Amortization Interest

Utilizing a commercial loan will adversely affect the cash position in the first three years of the loan period as shown by the following table. (for clear comparison of each financing scheme, see page 20)

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Table 22: Key Financial Indicators Commercial Loan Financing Scheme (In Rp million) Year

Water Revenue

2009

2010

92,988

104,866 120,499

Non-Water Revenues

6,812

Total Operating Rev. Operating Expenses

99,799

Non Operating Rev. (nett)

58,828

8,311

2011

2012

2013

2014

136,399

154,570

168,255 184,405 199,766 219,050 237,507 3,630

2017

2018

8,539

9,672

4,465

146,071

159,035

171,311 187,764 203,396 223,036 241,908

81,281

89,468

98,551 110,435 121,710 134,295 150,611

72,578

3,359

2016

113,177 129,038 65,971

3,056

2015

652

1,212

1,932

2,811

3,846

5,020

41,069

47,858

57,672

66,723

72,378

76,606

82,349

88,045 109,146 130,186

EBIT

31,377

38,166

45,802

50,451

55,259

59,093

64,416

69,662

EBT

25,766

26,092

33,586

41,153

48,526

54,926

62,813

69,644

90,281 110,805

Corporate Tax

7,705 18,061

7,803 18,289

10,051 23,535

12,321 28,832

14,533 33,993

16,453 38,473

18,819 43,994

20,868 48,776

27,059 63,222

33,217 77,589

3,482 2,776

3,760 3,146

4,112 3,299

4,440 3,478

4,844 3,552

5,235 3,741

5,733 4,041

6,206 4,352

6,799 4,754

7,366 5,272

63.26%

62.91%

60.23%

59.59%

57.88%

58.57%

59.89%

60.93%

61.31%

63.41%

74.28% 1.25 27.1% 43.4% 5.59 10,912 3.76 19.4% 48

77.52% 1.36 40.1% 55.0% 3.16 17,775 2.69 17.4% 46

74.91% 0.96 33.5% 48.1% 3.75 34,179 1.69 19.5% 45

73.15% 0.92 25.1% 38.5% 5.43 27,617 2.42 21.1% 45

71.25% 1.31 16.6% 27.3% 8.21 25,052 2.89 22.0% 45

70.18% 1.78 8.4% 14.7% 14.18 22,487 3.41 22.9% 45

69.22% 2.22 0.6% 1.2% 40.19 19,922 4.13 23.9% 45

68.89% 68.67% 70.27% 3.14 3.80 4.41 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3,911 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 1,544 57.01 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 24.4% 28.9% 32.7% 45 45 45

(0.8) 126%

(0.9) 119%

(2.0) 112%

(2.3) 124%

(1.2) 128%

0.1 129%

1.5 131%

Average Tariff (Rp.m3) Average Cost (Rp.m3) Operating Ratio: - O&M Costs/Water Rev. O&M+Depr+Int. Costs/Operating Rev. Current Ratio Debt Ratio to Total Assets Debt:Debt+Equity Ratio EBIT/Interest Debt Service DSCR Net profit/water revenue #Days Acc. Receivable Cash= No. of Months of Operating Costs FCR Achievement

4.3 131%

20,405

4,401

EBITDA

Net Profit

6,359

3,986

38,889

90,281 110,805

7.3 131%

10.3 128%

5.1. ASSUMPTIONS 5.1.1.

COST OF CAPITAL

The cost of capital based on the fund-sourcing mix presented in the financing plan. The loan portion could be from a commercial bank or through bond issuance. The commercial bank loan portion bears an interest rate of 14.0%, while that of the 10-year bond is 12.5%. PDAM funds and Local Government (LG) equity are expected to yield a return on equity of 10%, which is consistent with the alternative definition of full-cost recovery. On this basis, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for alternative financing with commercial loan is 13.0%, while that with bond is 11.9% as shown in Table 23.

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Table 23: Weighted Average Cost of Capital WACC

Commercial Loan

LG/PDAM funds

74.0% 14.0% 10.4%

26.0% 10.0% 2.6%

Weighting Nominal Cost WACC WACC Weighting Nominal Cost WACC

5.1.2.

LG/PDAM funds

Bond

Total 100.0% 13.0% Total

74.0% 12.5%

26.0% 10.0%

100.0%

9.3%

2.6%

11.9%

PROJECTED PRODUCTION AND DEMAND

Part of the proposed investment program concerns the installation of eight (8) additional pumps (@110 lps) in Wendit and 4 units in Mojolangu (@100 lps), plus several smaller pumps of 20 lps in Badut, Istana Dieng and Supit Urang. Total production capacity, therefore, is projected to increase to 1,480 l/sec by the end of the project period in 2011 or 146 l/sec more than the capacity in 2008 of 1,334 l/sec. NRW is at 41.8% in 2008, and targeted to decline to 39.9% in 2008, and projected to gradually decline by 2% each year thereafter to reach 29.9% in 2013 and finally 20% in 2018. The installation of new connections of 20,000 units to be generated through the investment program will be completed by 2013. Thereafter, additional connections will be generated through the PDAM’s sustained connection program. Per capita consumption, as estimated by the PDAM’s management, will be at a relatively low 123 liters per day throughout the projection period, although already 10% higher than the current year. Unit consumption is forecast to first gradually increase to reach 23.4 m3 per month in 2009, after which it will increase to settle at 24.3 m3 from 2014 onward. The service coverage ratio will be 91.0% in 2013 but will decrease to 87% during the last year of the projection period since there will be very few additional connections after 2013. There is thus ample room for system expansion within the city boundaries. The plant capacity utilization factor will range between 85% and 96% mainly because of the conservative assumption on consumption and the expectation of lower non-revenue water. The PDAM’s projected production, distribution and water losses are presented in Table 24.. Table 24: Projected Production Capacity, Distribution and Water Losses 2009 Production Capacity (l/sec) Production Volume (m3/year) Distribution Volume (m3/year) Volume Sold to Consumers (m3/year) Water demand (m3/year) Water Losses (%) Ratio of Production to Consumption Plant Utilization Factor (%)

1,402 44,220 42,995 27,464 26,704 37.9% 1.03 90%

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2010

2011

2012

2013

1,480 46,676 43,506 29,924 27,891 35.9% 1.07 95%

1,480 46,676 44,329 30,857 29,305 33.9% 1.05 95%

1,480 46,676 45,103 31,791 30,719 31.9% 1.03 95%

1,480 46,676 45,510 32,724 31,907 29.9% 1.03 95% 18

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Data on projected connections and water demand until 2013 are in Table 25. Table 25: Projected Connections and Water Demand

No of Customer No of New Connection Average Consumption (m3/conn/month) Water Produced (000 m3) Water Distribution (000 m3) Water Demand (000 m3) Projection of UfW

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

94,229

99,229

104,229

109,229

110,229

110,329

110,429

110,529

110,629

110,729

4,000

5,000

1,000

100

23.6

23.4

24.1

24.3

44,220

46,676

42,995

43,506

44,329

45,103

45,510

44,569

43,402

42,297

41,248

40,251

26,704

27,891

29,305

30,719

31,907

32,138

32,165

32,191

32,218

32,245

38%

36%

34%

32%

30%

28%

26%

24%

22%

20%

Details of the demand forecast are presented in Annex F.

5.1.3.

RECURRENT COSTS

Assumptions on recurrent costs are as follows: • Personnel and personnel cost: PDAM would like to maintain the number of employees at 500 in 2009 and for the rest of projection period, The desired personnel-to-connection ratio of 5.25 per 1,000 is planned to be achieved in 2009 and gradually decrease to 4.5 in 2018. The policy of the management is to increase the salary rate by 15% annually. The salary portion is approximately 50% of total personnel cost. Increase in allowances is done occasionally at various rates. The cost per employee is thus assumed to increase annually in real terms by 5.5% or about 12.5% in nominal terms. • Electricity and chemicals: In spite of current situation on the price of petroleum products, PDAM confirms that the tariff increase will be applied mainly to household users. High increases in certain chemicals will not affect PDAM so much as most of the raw watersources are spring. Their prices are therefore projected to move based on annual inflation rate. • Maintenance materials: These are assumed at 3.8% of fixed assets in operation, which is the same as the average during the period 2004-2008. • Administration: The proportion of this cost item to personnel cost will be reduced for efficiency at 30% for 2009 and expected to be the same during the projection period. • Raw water. Kota Batu and Kab. Malang have just reviewed the MOU with PDAM Kota Malang concerning the new tariff of the raw water. The cost of raw water will increase by 30% in 2009 and adjusted every 3 years using the same rate.

5.1.4.

TARIFF ANALYSIS

The PDAM is at present committed to maintaining the present practice of increasing tariff by 20% in nominal terms every two years, with effect starting the seventh month of the year the tariff increase is approved. On this basis, the weighted average tariff will always be at fullcost recovery. It should be noted that for 2007 tariff adjustment PDAM has referred to the ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

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new guidelines on tariff setting, (Permendagri 23/2006) which require only two (2) consumption blocks.

5.1.5.

DIVIDEND TO PEMDA

PDAM should give out 55% of its net profit to Pemda as dividend. However, Pemda is expected to reinvest part or the whole amount to PDAM to support PDAM in financing its investment needs. This projection assumes that Pemda would reinvest 50% of the dividend from PDAM to support PDAM to implement its investment program to maintain good service.

5.2. FEASIBILITY INDICATORS Based on the foregoing assumptions, the investment program for both financing schemes is found to be feasible with positive net present value (NPV) above Rp 65 million and financial internal rate of return (FIRR) above 20%. The program remains feasible even assuming a 10% increase in investment and incremental O&M costs, even with a 10% reduction in incremental revenues or the postponement of the realization of these revenues by one year, for example because of implementation delays. The calculation of the FIRR is presented in Annex J. The indicators of feasibility of the investment program under the base case and under certain adverse scenarios are shown in Table 26. Table 26: Feasibility Indicators

Base Case 10% Increase in Investment and O&M Costs 10% Decrease in Incremental Revenues One Year Delay in Incremental Revenues

Bond WACC=11.9% NPV FIRR 76,429 24.9% 46,301 19.7% 38,658 19.2% 29,108 16.3%

Commercial Loan WACC=13.0%) NPV FIRR 84,196 23.3% 51,518 18.4% 43,098 17.9% 35,750 15.5%

5.3. FINANCIAL RESULTS The projection of the main three financial statements for each financing scheme, bond and commercial loan, are presented as Annexes. The financial statements are: Income Statements, Source and Application of Funds and Balance Sheets.

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6. COMPARISON OF KEY FINANCIAL ACHIEVEMENT OF 3 FINANCING SCENARIOS This section is mainly concerned with presenting data and charts of the main financial indicators/ratios generated by each financing scenario to show the comparison.

6.1. DEBT SERVICE COVERAGE DSCR Financing Scenarios Bond – investment Bond – investment + loan refinance Commercial Loan

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2.08

3.18

3.21

3.02

3.29

3.56

4.13

4.78

5.67

2.41

1.32

3.87

3.82

2.62

2.86

3.20

3.68

4.24

4.99

2.06

2.01

3.69

1.96

2.42

2.89

3.41

4.13

57.01

30.0

25.0

D S C R

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

‐ 2009

2010

2011

O bligas i ‐ inves tas i

2012

2013

2014

2015

O bligas i ‐ inves tas i+ refinanc e

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2016

2017

2018

P injaman B ank

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6.2. CURRENT RATIO Current Ratio Financing Scenarios Bond -- investment Bond – investment + loan refinance Commercial Loan

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

8.14

1.77

1.92

2.59

3.52

4.39

4.93

5.42

5.76

4.58

9.05

2.19

2.64

3.20

4.05

4.77

5.27

5.72

6.03

4.57

0.52

1.07

0.96

0.92

1.31

1.78

2.22

3.14

3.80

4.41

2013

2014

10.0 9.0 8.0

R AS IO L ANC AR

7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 ‐ 2009

2010

2011

O bligas i ‐ inves tas i

2012

2015

O bligas i ‐ inves tas i+ refinanc e

2016

2017

2018

P injaman B ank

6.3. CASH= NO. OF MONTHS OF OPERATING COSTS Month Cash Operating Financing Scenarios Bond -- investment Bond – investment + loan refinance Commercial Loan

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

9.55

1.23

0.63

1.10

2.61

4.23

6.03

7.96

9.91

9.15

10.19

2.64

2.45

3.58

5.00

6.61

8.36

10.14

8.80

(3.16)

(1.68)

(2.00)

(2.27)

(1.24)

0.11

1.46

4.29

7.28

10.39

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12.0 10.0

# B UL AN K AS

8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 ‐ 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

(2.0) (4.0) O bligas i ‐ inves tas i

O bligas i ‐ inves tas i+ refinanc e

P injaman B ank

6.4. DEBT SERVICE Debt Service Financing Scenarios Bond -- investment Bond – investment + loan refinance Commercial Loan

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

19,761 19,344 17,961 12,297

12,297 12,297

12,297

12,297 110,670

31,149 16,413 15,110 14,166

14,165 14,165

14,165

14,165 127,487

20,432 12,975 29,460 27,617

25,052 22,487

19,922

1,544

2018

50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000

R p. juta

30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

P injaman K omers ial

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2014

2015

2016

O bligas i

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

100,000

80,000

R p. juta

60,000

40,000

20,000

0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

(20,000)

(40,000) K .K as ‐ K omers ial

K .K as ‐ O bligas i

Table 27: Summary of comparison Indicators DSCR Current Ratio Cash=#Mo Op. Cost

Investment

2.08 -3.29 1.77 - 8.14 0.63 - 9.55

BOND Investment + Loan refinance

1.32 - 3.87 2.19 - 9.05 2.45 - 10.19

NPV/FIRR *) 84,196/23.3% PV (Principle+Interest+ 144,847 Fixed Costs) **) Interest Rate 12.5% Loan Tenure 10 years Grace Period 9 years, principle paid in year-10 *) see calculation in Annex J **) see calculation in Annex K

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COMMERCIAL LOAN

1.96 - 3.69 0.52 - 1.31 (3.16) - 1.24 76,429/24.9% 106,419 14% 7 years Max 2 years

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

7. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 7.1. CONCLUSIONS From the foregoing, the following conclusions can be derived: •

PDAM Kota Malang will be able to maintain a sound financial footing. Net income will be generated each year of the 10-year projection period. Other financial indicators are likewise positive. One aspect will need special attention however, that the personnel cost is relatively high compared to the total cost of the previous year (above 50%). Permendagri 2/2007 on organization and personnel of PDAM, clause 12, article 5, states that total personnel cost for directors, supervisory board, staff and other personnel cost should not exceed 40% of total actual cost in previous year.

•

Without any significant improvement in distribution network it will be difficult for PDAM to achieve its performance targets. The nonrealization of NRW-reduction targets could very well put water revenue targets at risk.

•

In view of the existing limitations distribution capacity accompanied by high levels of NRW, the proposed investment program becomes even more urgent. The investment program includes, among others, the installation of additional pumps to bring up Wendit to its full production potential.

•

On the basis of the assumptions on costs and incremental revenues, the proposed investment program is financially feasible. The financial feasibility assessment yields a positive NPV and an FIRR that exceeds the WACC.

•

Using the bond to finance the investment and to refinance existing loan seems to be the most appropriate option looking at its impact on cash. Current ratio and cash availability for operating costs will be recovered and reach the required level for sound operation.

•

The investment program is financially affordable to the PDAM. While a relatively high proportion of debt financing is assumed, the financial projection shows that the PDAM will be able to repay such debt with a room to spare for additional borrowing based on a DSCR that is consistently higher than the statutory minimum.

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7.2. RECOMMENDATIONS The following recommendations are offered to ensure the validity of the foregoing conclusions: •

Formulate and implement an action plan toward personnel cost efficiency. Excessive level of personnel cost could be an issue that prospective lenders may focus on and may require the PDAM to commit to a specific and time-bound strategy for efficiency. Increase in personnel cost should be linked to performance that will encourage positive attitude rather than annual increase that applies to everybody.

•

Take a more aggressive and proactive stance toward generating new connections. The new connections are needed both for defraying a substantial part of the investment cost and for generating the assumed incremental revenues. Such a stance is a must in view of the ambitious targets set, at least during the next four years, compared to the PDAM’s track record in generating new connections.

•

Conduct a comprehensive real demand survey immediately. The results of the survey would serve to validate the targets in the investment program and should be able to provide more realistic budgeting assumptions for the coming years.

•

Institute safeguards for ensuring the validity of the assumptions used in the financial projection. PDAM should make sure that the tariff increase schedule every 2-year with a minimum increase of 18% is applicable and make sure that the tariff structure between customers group produce average tariff that is in conformity with the target increase. However, an annual average tariff increase 3% above inflation rate every 2 years will conserve the financial position better (e.g. in case Pemda cannot reinvest at least 50% of the dividend).

•

Obtain Pemda’s commitment to reinvest 100% of the dividend to PDAM to guarantee enough cash at required level at the end of the year, or PDAM withhold the dividend and offer Pemda a return on its equity in place of the dividend

•

Institute safeguards against the adverse scenarios used in the sensitivity analysis of the investment program. PDAM should work with number-one contractor to guarantee the construction as scheduled and the one who is able to provide guarantees for time overruns. PDAM should be willing to limit the tender list to such contractors and include penalty clauses for failure to meet construction milestones.

Regarding PDAM’s plan to issue a bond to finance the implementation of the investment program, to optimize use of the proceeds and to minimize financial cost raised due to the difference between the coupon rate and deposit interest, PDAM should consider the following recommendations: •

Accelerate the implementation to two (2) years; with a bigger portion of investment for the first year of the implementation;

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â&#x20AC;˘

In case 3-year implementation is considered most reasonable; either Pemda or PDAM provides fund for the investment needed in year-1 and the bond will be used to finance the investment need for year-2 and year-3, or

The year-1 implementation is financed through commercial loan, bond issued later on to cover the year-2 and year-3 need of fund and to pay off the year-1 loan,

Above all these, PDAM should prepare the investment program based on the priority and develop a detailed implementation schedule that makes the most sense from a technical and financial perspective. In case PDAM and Pemda are not satisfied with any of the three options presented, an alternative is to simply finance the entire cost using only equity and commercial financing, but the overall amount of commercial debt should be lowered (prioritizing one part of the investment) such that it eases the burden on the cash flow.

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8. ANNEXES ANNEX A: NOTES ON VISIT TO PDAM KOTA MALANG Date Time Place

: : :

March 17-18, 2008 9:00 – 11:30 AM PDAM Kota Malang

The purpose of the meeting was to do data checking and discuss on technical details and assumptions used in the financial analysis and projection model. The meeting was attended by the Technical Director, General Director, Managers and key staffs, either from technical or financial departments. The first day was used to show the first draft of finpro based on data provided by PDAM and discuss several issues as follows: (1) Implementation Schedule of the investment. PDAM formerly proposed 5-year period of implementation from 2008-2012. Considering the timing and possibility to finance through capital market, PDAM agreed to squeeze the period to 3 years. (2) Though number of population was taken from Laporan Kinerja PDAM, the R&D staff needed to recheck the figure. For member of family it’s agreed to use 6 instead of 7 from budget 2008. PDAM should use regional data instead of PU standard to calculate the service coverage. (3) Average meter cubic water consumption per connection would be kept lower than previously targeted in budget 2008 considering that the actual consumption in 2007 was only 22.1 m3, much lower than the target at 25m3. Consumption for year 2009 is projected to increase by 10% as the result of water meter replacement. (4) The UFW is projected to decrease by 2% every year starting from 2009, as the result of pipes and water meter replacement. (5) The days of account receivable will be projected at 45 days. The Dirum said that it was difficult to make it faster than that. (6) Tariff adjustment will be done every 2 years between 18 to 20%, consistent with the plan in the Corporate Plan. (7) Regarding financing plan, the Dirum explained that currently PDAM and Pemda were working on Perda on Pemda’s equity to PDAM. PDAM expected to get around Rp75 billion from Pemda. PDAM itself will allocate between 6 - 8 billion every year for the investment. (8) Several data were checked, corrected and adjusted, especially data on customers (no of connection, water sold and water bills). The second day was to revise finpro based on discussion/correction/inputs and present the result to PDAM. A copy was given to PDAM to give them a chance to study the finpro and to look more thoroughly at the data and assumptions. PDAM would work on it and email it to ESP asap. Next Steps: • Present the first outlook of the investment feasibility to PDAM and Badan Pengawas by the end of March or early April 2008. ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

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ANNEX B: NOTES ON THE MEETING WITH PDAM KOTA MALANG Date Time Place Agenda Participants

: : : : :

April 3, 2008 10:00 – 12:00 AM, 07:00 – 09:00 PM PDAM Kota Malang Presentation of draft pre-FS Supervisory Board PDAM Kota Malang Direktors and Managers of PDAM Kota Malang ESP

Presentasi dibagi dalam 2 (dua) sesi, dimana sesi pertama adalah pertemuan dengan Direksi dan Manajer serta beberapa staff PDAM Kota Malang dengan tujuan untuk klarifikasi data dan masukan-masukan lainnya. Sedangkan pertemuan kedua adalah pertemuan dengan Badan Pengawas PDAM Kota Malang yang dilaksanakan pada pukul 19.00. Ketua Badan Pengawas diwakili oleh Asisten Sekretaris Daerah, sedangkan anggota dan sekretaris Badan Pengawas hadir. Pertemuan Pertama : Poppy Lestari mewakili ESP menyajikan presentasi Pra-FS dan parameter kuangan. Berikut ini adalah beberapa catatan dalam pertemuan tersebut : • Jumlah bulan kas terhadap bulan operasional yang rendah akan berdampak buruk pada upaya penerbitan obligasi? Analisa jumlah kas terhadap bulan operasional pada periode eksisting menunjukan nilai dibawah 1 bulan. •

Kehilangan air tahun 2006 meningkat tajam. Hal ini disebabkan antara lain oleh 3 hal: - Perbaikan jaringan; - Meter air tidak akurat, - Peningkatan jam pelayanan menjadi 24 jam. Wilayah-wilayah yang sebelumnya mendapatkan pelayanan 16 jam atau kurang dari 24 jam biasa menggunakan bak penampung untk menampung air. Dengan pelayanan 24 jam mereka tidak perlu menampung ari lagi karena air bisa didapat setiap saat.

•

Perbedaan dalam cakupan pelayanan antara hasil perhitungan dalam Finpro dengan laporan PDAM disebabkan perbedaan rumus yang digunakan. PDAM mengalikan semua jumlah sambungan dengan rata-rata jumlah anggota keluarga; sedangan rumus dalam Finpro adalah jumlah sambungan rumah dan kran umum. Penjelasan ESP mengenai hal ini bisa diterima dengan baik oleh PDAM.

•

Klarifikasi jumlah tenaga kerja dan biaya tenaga kerja PDAM setuju dengan data eksisting yang ada dan angka proyeksi yang digunakan. Kenaikan 15% atas biaya personil hanya dikenakan kepada gaji, yang merupakan 50% dari seluruh biaya tenaga kerja.

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•

Biaya air baku tahun 2008, Peningkatan biaya air baku disebabkan mulai diberlakukannya tarif air baku dengan Kabupaten Kota Batu per Januari tahun 2008 sebesar Rp. 70/m3. MOU antara PDAM dan Pemda Batu akan segera diselesaikan. Demikian juga dengan Kab. Malang meminta kenaikan tarif air baku dari Rp50 menjadi Rp65 per m3juga terjadi kenaikan, sehingga rata-rata kenaikan retibusi air baku adalah sebesar 30%.

•

Mengenai asumsi kenaikan biaya listrik, Direksi menyampaikan bahwa kenaikan tarif yang akan datang diberlakukan terutama untuk golongan rumah tangga, diharapkan tarif industri tidak akan terjadi kenaikan riil yang signifikan.

•

Klarifikasi PDAM tentang ijin penggunaan tanah untuk pemasangan pipa, bahwa biaya yang terkait dengan hal tersebut telah termasuk dalam nilai investasi.

•

Mekanisme tender proyek dapat dilakukan dengan metode “Fixed Price” untuk mengantisipasi resiko peningkatan biaya investasi karena adanya perubahan harga

•

PDAM memberikan klarifikasi bahwa biaya DED telah diperhitungkan dalam perkiraan biaya investasi., begitu juga dengan kontingensi fisik.

•

Penambahan sambungan dikoreksi dengan mengurangi target tahun 2009 dan menambah target tahun sesudahnya. Disepakati proyeksi penambahan pelanggan baru akan dikoreksi dengan sambungan Setiap tahun PDAM memperkirakan adanya tambahan pelanggan baru antara sekitar 4,000 hingga 5,000 sambungan, sambungan baru pada tahun 2009 sehingga target dan tingkat optimalisasi sambungan baru sebesarsebanyak 20 ribu akan dapat dicapai dalam waktu 4-5 tahunpada tahun 2013.

•

Kebutuhan dana yang bersumber dari penyertaan Pemda. Penyertaan Pemda sedang dalam proses untuk Perda. Komitmen Pemda sebesar Rp75 milyar telah disetujui oleh 4 fraksi dari 6 fraksi di DPRD. Keputusan pemberian penyertaan Pemda tersebut dalam jumlah sekaligus atau bertahapparsial tergantung Perda yang akan diputuskan nantinya. Keputusan menunggu hasil Pilkada sekitar bulan Agustus 2008.

•

Penjadwalan pelaksanaan proyek dan prioritisasi program akan dibicarakan pada pertemuan mendatang secara lebih rinci.

Pertemuan kedua dengan Dewan Pengawas Berikut ini adalah beberapa catatan dalam pertemuan tersebut. • Apakah ada fee untuk pendampingan management? Pendampingan manajemen nantinya dilakukan oleh Wali Amanat dan nilai tersebut sudah termasuk dalam fee wali amanat yang dibayar per tahunnya. •

Apakah biaya sudah diestimasi kenaikannya? Seperti air baku? Semua unsur biaya operasional telah diproyeksikan peningkatan per tahunnya. Paramater yang digunakan adalah inflasi dan estimasi dari PDAM (Biaya tenaga kerja dan air baku).

•

Pernyataan dari Badan Pengawas terkait dengan komitmen penyertaan modal dari Pemda, tahun 2008 adalah tahun kritis bagi Pemda untuk memenuhi bisa kebutuhan pendanaan PDAM. Rp. 5 milyar per tahun tampaknya akan sangat sulit untuk diimplementasikan.

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•

Apakah program ini selaras dengan corporate plan? Ya, dan sudah masuk dalam Rencana Induk (Master Plan) yang disusun dalam periode Corporate Plan.

•

Hendaknya rencana investasi ini didukung dengan kajian terhadap potensi pelanggannya, mengingat bahwa data historis menunjukan adanya penurunan tingkat konsumsi pelanggan.

•

Bagaimana sistem tender untuk penerbitan obligasi? ESP akan membantu dalam hal persiapan dan pelaksanaan tender dalam rangka penerbitan obligasi.

•

Kebutuhan investasi dan pembiayaannya hendaknya dibuat dengan perencanaan yang matang dalam jangka panjang dan selaras dengan Corporate Plan. Sehingga tidak terkesan rencana investasi yang ada dibuat dengan perencanaan yang tidak matang.

Berikut ini adalah tanggapan dari Dirut PDAM terkait dengan pertanyaan Badan Pengawas. • PDAM Kota Malang untuk mempertahankan tingkat pelayanan, perlu mengganti pipa pompa air yang sudah tua dan , mengganti meter air yang tidak akurat, . Ssehingga untuk itu perlu ada upaya perbaikan dengan merencanakan investasi baru. •

Penurunan konsumsi air antara lain disebabkan: − dikarenakan adanya penurunan konsumsi industri dengan bebasnya pengambilan air tanah dan pengawasan yang kurang.

•

Kapasitas produksi yang ada sekarang telah melebihi kapasitas (idle), investasi peningkatan kapasitas ini didanai dengan pinjaman BNI. Seiring dengan penurunan tingkat konsumsi, maka untuk mengoptimalkan kapasitas yang idle telah disiapkan rencana pengembangan pelayanan (penambahan sambungan baru). Disamping itu telah disiapkan juga analisa tentang kelayakan investasi dan alternatif yang paling ekonomis dari sisi pendanaannya.

•

PDAM dalam bulan ini mencanangkan program promosi dengan menurunkan biaya sambungan baru dari Rp1.25 juta menjadi Rp. 1 juta (PDAM subsidi Rp. 250 ribu). Saat ini sudah terdaftar Target sambungan per bulan 70070 calon pelanggan (tercapai dalam waktu 1 bulan). PDAM memberikan program angsuran 3 bulan dengan pembayaran pertama 50%.

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ANNEX C: SCHEDULE OF AMORTIZATION OF OUTSTANDING LOANS OF PDAM KOTA MALANG 2005 Loan from DDI Loan Balance Amortization of Principal Interest Payment Repayment of Accumulated Interest Loan from PT Sumber Kencana Perkasa Loan Balance Amortization of Principal Interest Payment Loan from BNI Loan Balance Amortization of Principal Interest Payment

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

4,355 670 382

3,685 670 321

3,015 670 260

2,345 670 199

1,675 670 137

1,005 670 76

335 335 15

231

116

17,505 1,005 637

16,500 6,000 1,985

10,500 6,000 1,118

4,500 4,500 271

26,719

26,719 4,000 4,153

22,719 4,400 3,470

18,319 4,400 2,753

13,919 4,400 2,020

9,519 4,800 1,270

4,719 4,719 479

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ANNEX D: INVESMENT PROGRAM OF PDAM KOTA MALANG No.

LOCATION

Reservoir Service System

Tlogomas Procurement and Installation of Pipe Network f 100 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

VOLUME

2008

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

2012

1,049,769,600.00 920.00 1,250.00 510.00

m' m' m'

82,731,000.00 587,606,250.00 379,432,350.00

Betek Procurement and Installation of Pipe Network f 150 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm f 350 mm

900.00 440.00 900.00 1,500.00 1,740.00 500.00 800.00 900.00 2,810.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

167,805,000.00 82,038,000.00 273,017,250.00 455,028,750.00 527,833,350.00 151,676,250.00 376,068,000.00 669,586,500.00 3,709,200,000.00

Reservoir

2,000.00

5,500,000,000.00

82,731,000 587,606,250 379,432,350

11,912,253,100.00

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167,805,000 82,038,000 273,017,250 455,028,750 527,833,350 151,676,250 376,068,000 669,586,500 1,854,600,000

1,854,600,000

5,500,000,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. 3

LOCATION Mojolangu Procurement and Installation of Pipe Network f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm Submersible Pump 100 lt/dt, head 82 m', 132 KW, 3 x 380 Volt, 50 Hz, 2800 rpm, DOL Panel Pompa CU3, 132 KW, 50 Hz Transformator Cap. 1000 KVA, 3 x 20 KV / 3 x 380 Volt

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

400.00 1,000.00 1,860.00 500.00 1,100.00 2,210.00 800.00 450.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

4.00

unit

74,580,000.00 186,450,000.00 346,797,000.00 93,225,000.00 333,687,750.00 670,409,025.00 242,682,000.00 136,508,625.00

74,580,000 186,450,000 346,797,000

1,800,000,000.00

1,800,000,000

1,016,000,000.00

1,016,000,000

125,000,000.00

125,000,000 125,000,000

unit

1.00

unit

Crane capacity 5 ton

1.00

unit

125,000,000.00

Butterfly Valve f 8" Digital Water Meter (Aqua Prove) Digital Water Meter f 8" - f 12"

7.00 2.00 6.00

unit unit unit

105,000,000.00 220,000,000.00 450,000,000.00

2,000.00

5,500,000,000.00

Buring Procurement and Installation of Pipe Network f 150 mm

2008

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

2012

11,425,339,400.00

4.00

Reservoir 4

VOLUME

93,225,000 333,687,750 670,409,025 242,682,000 136,508,625

105,000,000 220,000,000 450,000,000 2,750,000,000

2,750,000,000

32,938,594,700.00

800.00

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

149,160,000.00

149,160,000 34

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No.

LOCATION

VOLUME

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 350 mm f 500 mm f 500 mm

360.00 400.00 320.00 2,300.00 800.00 2,100.00 500.00 2,300.00 3,300.00 1,300.00 650.00 2,250.00 1,020.00 2,900.00 1,820.00 4,527.00 2,500.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

Buring III

2,000.00

5,500,000,000.00

2,000.00

5,500,000,000.00

67,122,000.00 74,580,000.00 59,664,000.00 428,835,000.00 149,160,000.00 637,040,250.00 151,676,250.00 697,710,750.00 1,001,063,250.00 611,110,500.00 483,590,250.00 1,673,966,250.00 758,864,700.00 2,157,556,500.00 2,402,400,000.00 6,722,595,000.00 3,712,500,000.00

2008

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

2012 67,122,000 74,580,000 59,664,000

428,835,000 149,160,000 637,040,250 151,676,250 697,710,750 1,001,063,250 611,110,500 483,590,250 1,673,966,250 758,864,700 2,157,556,500 2,402,400,000 3,361,297,500 3,712,500,000

3,361,297,500

Reservoir Buring IV

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

5,500,000,000 5,500,000,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. 5

LOCATION Wendit Procurement and Installation of Pipe Network f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 400 mm

Submersible Pump 110 lt/dt, head 90 m' 147 KW, 3 x 380 Volt, 50 Hz, 2900 rpm, DOL

Panel Pompa CU3, 147 KW, 50 Hz Transformator Cap 1250 KVA, 50 Hz 3 x 20 KV / 3 x 220 Volt Magnet Contactor SN 400 Magnet Contactor SN 300 Butterfly Valve f 8" Butterfly Valve f 12" Crane cap. 5 ton Digital Water Meterr f 6" - f 8" Submersible pump chamber Wendit II

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

VOLUME

2008

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

2012

14,884,450,500.00

1,200.00 1,630.00 1,860.00 5,050.00

m' m' m' m'

8.00

unit

8.00

unit

2.00

unit

6.00 6.00 6.00 8.00 1.00 2.00

unit unit unit unit unit unit

6.00

unit

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

223,740,000.00 303,913,500.00 346,797,000.00 7,070,000,000.00

223,740,000 303,913,500 3,535,000,000

3,652,000,000.00

3,652,000,000

1,792,000,000.00

1,792,000,000

300,000,000.00

300,000,000

75,000,000.00 66,000,000.00 90,000,000.00 200,000,000.00 15,000,000.00 150,000,000.00

75,000,000 66,000,000 90,000,000 200,000,000 15,000,000 150,000,000

600,000,000.00

600,000,000

346,797,000 3,535,000,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. 6

LOCATION Bangkon Procurement and Installation of Pipe Network f 100 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 300 mm Badut Submersible pump 20 lt/dt, 15 KW and panels

Istana Dieng Submersible pump20 lt/dt, 15 KW and panelsl Supit Urang Submersible pump20 lt/dt, 15 KW and panelsl

VOLUME

3,000.00 700.00 900.00 2,500.00

m' m' m' m'

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

2008

2,533,269,750.00 269,775,000.00 130,515,000.00 273,017,250.00 1,859,962,500.00

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

2012

269,775,000 130,515,000 273,017,250 1,859,962,500

100,000,000.00 1.00

unit

100,000,000.00

100,000,000

100,000,000.00 1.00

unit

100,000,000.00

100,000,000

100,000,000.00 1.00

unit

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

100,000,000.00

100,000,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No.

LOCATION

REHABILITATION OF ASBESTOS PIPES NETWORK

f 100 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 250 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 400 mm B

VOLUME

Tertiary System Reservoir Tlogomas Reservoir Mojolangu Reservoir Betek Reservoir Buring Reservoir Bangkon Reservoir Wendit I

418.00 1,202.00 222.00 425.00 544.00 166.00 318.00 1,066.00 1,108.00 230.00 427.00 140.00 270.00 1,455.00 554.00 400.00 793.00 505.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

3,760,189,620.00 37,588,650.00 224,112,900.00 41,391,900.00 79,241,250.00 101,428,800.00 30,950,700.00 59,291,100.00 198,755,700.00 206,586,600.00 42,883,500.00 79,614,150.00 26,103,000.00 50,341,500.00 683,973,675.00 260,427,090.00 297,594,000.00 589,980,105.00 749,925,000.00

2,941,200,000.00 1,998,000,000.00 891,000,000.00 2,487,600,000.00 1,057,200,000.00 2,198,400,000.00

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

2008

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

2012

37,588,650 224,112,900 41,391,900 79,241,250 101,428,800 30,950,700 59,291,100 198,755,700 206,586,600 42,883,500 79,614,150 26,103,000 50,341,500 683,973,675 260,427,090 297,594,000 589,980,105 749,925,000

588,240,000 399,600,000 178,200,000 497,520,000 211,440,000 439,680,000

588,240,000 399,600,000 178,200,000 497,520,000 211,440,000 439,680,000 38

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. C

LOCATION NRW Program Peralatan Analisa NRW Water Meter Replacement Pressure Management ( PRV+ Timer) AIMS Program Asset Information Management System (A I M S)

VOLUME

40,000

unit

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

2008

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010 2011

9,650,000,000.00 2,650,000,000.00 6,000,000,000.00

2,650,000,000 6,000,000,000

1,000,000,000.00

1,000,000,000

9,500,000,000.00 9,500,000,000.00

109,527,266,670.00

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

2012

9,500,000,000

9,607,677,525.00

33,820,127,175.00

32,676,931,850.00

21,280,577,500.00

12,141,952,620.00

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX E: PROPOSED REVISION OF IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE PDAM KOTA MALANG No. A

LOCATION

VOLUME

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2009 2010

2011

Sistem Pelayanan Reservoir 1

Tlogomas Pengadaan & Pemasangan Jaringan Pipa f 100 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm

1,049,769,600 920.00 1,250.00 510.00

m' m' m'

82,731,000 587,606,250 379,432,350

Betek Pengadaan & Pemasangan Jaringan Pipa f 150 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm f 350 mm

900.00 440.00 900.00 1,500.00 1,740.00 500.00 800.00 900.00 2,810.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

167,805,000 82,038,000 273,017,250 455,028,750 527,833,350 151,676,250 376,068,000 669,586,500 3,709,200,000

Reservoir

2,000.00

5,500,000,000

82,731,000 587,606,250 379,432,350

11,912,253,100

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

167,805,000 82,038,000 273,017,250 455,028,750 527,833,350 151,676,250 376,068,000 669,586,500 3,709,200,000 5,500,000,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. 3

LOCATION Mojolangu Pengadaan & Pemasangan Jaringan Pipa f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm Pompa Submersible 100 lt/dt, head 82 m', 132 KW, 3 x 380 Volt, 50 Hz, 2800 rpm, DOL Panel Pompa CU3, 132 KW, 50 Hz Transformator Daya 1000 KVA, 3 x 20 KV / 3 x 380 Volt Crane kapasitas 5 ton lengkap dengan tiang Butterfly Valve f 8" Meter Air Digital ( Aqua Prove ) Meter Air Digital f 8" - f 12" Reservoir

Buring Pengadaan & Pemasangan Jaringan Pipa f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm

VOLUME

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

2009

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2010

2011

11,425,339,400 400.00 1,000.00 1,860.00 500.00 1,100.00 2,210.00 800.00 450.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

74,580,000 186,450,000 346,797,000 93,225,000 333,687,750 670,409,025 242,682,000 136,508,625

333,687,750 670,409,025 242,682,000 136,508,625

4.00

unit

1,800,000,000

4.00

unit

1,016,000,000

1.00

unit

1.00 7.00 2.00 6.00

unit unit unit unit

125,000,000 125,000,000 105,000,000 220,000,000 450,000,000

2,000.00

5,500,000,000

74,580,000 186,450,000 346,797,000 93,225,000

5,500,000,000

32,938,594,700 800.00 360.00 400.00 320.00 2,300.00 800.00

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

m' m' m' m' m' m'

149,160,000 67,122,000 74,580,000 59,664,000 428,835,000 149,160,000

149,160,000 67,122,000 74,580,000 59,664,000 428,835,000 149,160,000 41

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No.

LOCATION

VOLUME

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

2009

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2010

f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 200 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 350 mm f 500 mm f 500 mm

2,100.00 500.00 2,300.00 3,300.00 1,300.00 650.00 2,250.00 1,020.00 2,900.00 1,820.00 4,527.00 2,500.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

637,040,250 151,676,250 697,710,750 1,001,063,250 611,110,500 483,590,250 1,673,966,250 758,864,700 2,157,556,500 2,402,400,000 6,722,595,000 3,712,500,000

637,040,250

Buring III

2,000.00

5,500,000,000

2,000.00

5,500,000,000

2011

151,676,250 697,710,750 1,001,063,250 611,110,500 483,590,250 1,673,966,250 758,864,700 2,157,556,500 2,402,400,000 6,722,595,000 3,712,500,000

Reservoir Buring IV 5

Wendit Pengadaan & Pemasangan Jaringan Pipa f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 400 mm Pompa Submersible 110 lt/dt, head 90 m' 147 KW, 3 x 380 Volt, 50 Hz, 2900 rpm, DOL Panel Pompa CU3, 147 KW, 50 Hz

5,500,000,000

14,884,450,500 1,200.00 1,630.00 1,860.00 5,050.00

m' m' m' m'

8.00

unit

8.00

unit

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

223,740,000 303,913,500 346,797,000 7,070,000,000

223,740,000

3,535,000,000

3,652,000,000

1,792,000,000

303,913,500 346,797,000 3,535,000,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No.

LOCATION Transformator Daya 1250 KVA, 50 Hz, 3 x 20 KV / 3 x 220 Volt Magnet Contactor SN 400 Magnet Contactor SN 300 Butterfly Valve f 8" Butterfly Valve f 12" Crane kapasitas 5 ton Meter Air Digital f 6" - f 8" Bak / sumuran pompa submersible Wendit II

Bangkon Pengadaan & Pemasangan Jaringan Pipa f 100 mm f 150 mm f 200 mm f 300 mm Badut Pompa Submersible 20 lt/dt, 15 KW

VOLUME 2.00

unit

6.00 6.00 6.00 8.00 1.00 2.00 6.00

3,000.00 700.00 900.00 2,500.00

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

2009

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2010

300,000,000

unit unit unit unit unit unit unit

75,000,000 66,000,000 90,000,000 200,000,000 15,000,000 150,000,000 600,000,000

m' m' m' m'

2,533,269,750 269,775,000 130,515,000 273,017,250 1,859,962,500

2011

269,775,000 130,515,000 273,017,250 1,859,962,500

100,000,000 1.00

unit

1.00

unit

1.00

unit

100,000,000

beserta Panel-panel 8

Istana Dieng Pompa Submersible 20 lt/dt, 15 KW

100,000,000 100,000,000

100,000,000

beserta Panel-panel 9

Supit Urang Pompa Submersible 20 lt/dt, 15 KW

100,000,000 100,000,000

100,000,000

beserta Panel-panel ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. 10

LOCATION REHAB JARINGAN PIPA ASBES f 100 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 150 mm f 250 mm f 250 mm f 300 mm f 300 mm f 400 mm

VOLUME

418.00 1,202.00 222.00 425.00 544.00 166.00 318.00 1,066.00 1,108.00 230.00 427.00 140.00 270.00 1,455.00 554.00 400.00 793.00 505.00

m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m' m'

COST ESTIMATE (Rp) 3,760,189,620 37,588,650 224,112,900 41,391,900 79,241,250 101,428,800 30,950,700 59,291,100 198,755,700 206,586,600 42,883,500 79,614,150 26,103,000 50,341,500 683,973,675 260,427,090 297,594,000 589,980,105 749,925,000

2009

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2010

2011

37,588,650.00 224,112,900 41,391,900 79,241,250.00 101,428,800.00 30,950,700.00 59,291,100 198,755,700.00 206,586,600 42,883,500.00 79,614,150.00 26,103,000.00 50,341,500.00 683,973,675.00 260,427,090.00 297,594,000.00 589,980,105.00 749,925,000.00

Sistem Pelayanan Tersier (SR) Reservoir Tlogomas Reservoir Mojolangu Reservoir Betek Reservoir Buring Reservoir Bangkon Reservoir Wendit I

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

2,941,200,000 1,998,000,000 891,000,000 2,487,600,000 1,057,200,000 2,198,400,000

1,176,480,000 799,200,000 356,400,000 995,040,000 422,880,000 879,360,000

882,360,000 599,400,000 267,300,000 746,280,000 317,160,000 659,520,000

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

No. C

LOCATION Program NRW Peralatan Analisa NRW Water Meter Replacement Pressure Management (PRV+Timer)

VOLUME

COST ESTIMATE (Rp)

unit -

9,650,000,000 2,650,000,000 6,000,000,000 1,000,000,000

40,000.00 -

Program AIMS Asset Information Management System ( A IMS)

IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 2010 1,325,000,000 3,000,000,000 500,000,000

2011 1,325,000,000 3,000,000,000 500,000,000

9,500,000,000 -

9,500,000,000 109,527,266,670

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

2009

9,500,000,000 33,927,804,700.00

64,073,634,850.00

11,525,827,120.00

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX F: WATER DEMAND FORECAST Sambungan 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

UMUM Jumlah Penduduk Kotamadya (Jiwa) Tingkat Pertumbuhan Penduduk Anggota Keluarga/Pelanggan Jumlah orang terlayani oleh kran umum/SU Jumlah Penduduk Yang Terlayani Tingkat Cakupan Pelayanan

789,349 0.00%

798,104 1.11%

806,963 1.11%

815,920 0.74%

824,977 0.99%

833,114 0.99%

841,330 0.99%

849,628 0.99%

858,008 0.99%

866,471 0.99%

875,016 0.99%

883,647 0.99%

892,362 0.99%

901,163 0.99%

910,051 0.99%

100

611,174

633,176

646,140

659,936

680,146

701,410

727,990

754,570

781,150

786,466

787,066

787,666

788,266

788,866

789,466

77%

79%

80%

81%

82%

84%

87%

89%

91%

90%

89%

88%

87%

PENAMBAHAN PELANGGAN Kelompok I

126

135

169

Kelompok II

1,697

1,727

1,616

3,088

3,544

4,430

886

100

Kelompok III

(130)

Kelompok IV

259

223

321

401

Kelompok V

(3)

(2)

Kelompok VI

Kelompok Khusus

(8)

(6)

3,389

4,000

5,000

1,000

100

Penambahan Pelanggan

1,808

2,018

1,751

PELANGGAN Kelompok I

1,508

1,634

1,659

1,700

1,714

1,849

2,018

2,187

2,356

2,390

Kelompok II

76,174

77,871

79,598

81,214

84,302

87,846

92,276

96,706

101,136

102,022

102,122

102,222

102,322

102,422

102,522

Kelompok III

555

425

442

489

Kelompok IV

2,980

3,078

3,337

3,436

3,659

3,980

4,381

4,782

5,183

5,263

Kelompok V

Kelompok VI

Kelompok Khusus

90,229

94,229

99,229

104,229

109,229

110,229

110,329

110,429

110,529

110,629

110,729

Pelanggan Akhir

81,263

83,071

85,089

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

86,840

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Permintaan & Produksi Air 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

PERMINTAAN AIR Proyeksi Kenaikan Konsumsi Air (%) Proyeksi penjualan air dari pelanggan baru (%)

10%

-28%

-225%

40%

22.54%

0.02%

20.00%

PROYEKSI KONSUMSI AIR (m3/SR/Bln)

145

138

110

112

123

Kelompok I

79.4

59.5

50.5

51.7

53.2

58.6

Kelompok II

26.1

24.8

19.9

20.2

20.1

22.1

Kelompok III

76.1

219.8

269.6

282.1

264.8

291.3

Kelompok IV

38.4

31.6

25.1

23.1

22.5

24.8

Kelompok V

62.5

79.3

68.4

33.3

29.6

32.6

Kelompok VI Kelompok Khusus

Rata-rata

58.6

20,916.7

1,928.0

922.6

812.5

337.5

28.37

27.24

22.15

22.37

22.24

23.62

23.42

23.43

23.44

24.12

24.27

PROYEKSI PERMINTAAN AIR PER THN (000 m3) Kelompok I

1,436

1,166

1,006

1,054

1,095

1,223

1,323

1,442

1,561

1,660

1,680

Kelompok II

23,815

23,152

18,986

19,719

20,344

22,567

23,554

24,730

25,906

26,894

27,088

27,114

27,141

27,167

27,194

Kelompok III

507

1,121

1,430

1,496

1,554

1,709

Kelompok IV

1,374

1,166

1,004

951

988

1,106

1,206

1,325

1,444

1,544

1,563

Kelompok V

Kelompok VI

502

509

155

27,667

27,153

22,613

23,314

24,078

26,704

27,891

29,305

30,719

31,907

32,138

32,165

32,191

32,218

32,245

Kelompok Khusus Total Permintaaan (000 m3)

PROYEKSI KONSUMSI AIR PER THN (000 m3) Kelompok I

1,436

1,166

1,006

1,054

1,095

1,223

1,323

1,442

1,561

1,660

1,680

Kelompok II

23,815

23,152

18,986

19,719

20,344

22,567

23,554

24,730

25,906

26,894

27,088

27,114

27,141

27,167

27,194

Kelompok III

507

1,121

1,430

1,496

1,554

1,709

Kelompok IV

1,374

1,166

1,004

951

988

1,106

1,206

1,325

1,444

1,544

1,563

Kelompok V

Kelompok VI

502

509

155

27,667

27,153

22,613

23,314

24,078

26,704

27,891

29,305

30,719

31,907

32,138

32,165

32,191

32,218

32,245

1,558

Kelompok Khusus Total Konsumsi Air (000 m3)

PRODUKSI Kapasitas sumber/terpasang (lt/dt) Tambahan kapasitas (lt/dt) Total kapasitas (lt/dt) Kapasitas pemakaian (lt/dt)

1,288

1,266

1,304

1,334

1,402

1,480

% tingkat kehilangan air

29.0%

28.8%

42.1%

41.8%

39.9%

37.9%

35.9%

33.9%

31.9%

29.9%

27.9%

25.9%

23.9%

21.9%

19.9%

Kapasitas sumber ( 000 m3)

49,133

Kapasitas produksi ( 000 m3)

40,618

39,925

41,123

42,074

44,220

46,676

Jumlah Distribusi (000 m3)

38,964

38,112

39,060

40,057

42,995

43,506

44,329

45,103

45,510

44,569

43,402

42,297

41,248

40,251

% pemanfaatan kapasitas

82.7%

81.3%

83.7%

85.6%

90.0%

95.0%

Jumlah air siap dijual ( 000 m3) setelah kehilangan air

28,409

29,644

31,083

24,488

25,290

27,464

29,924

30,857

31,791

32,724

33,658

34,591

35,525

36,458

37,392

Jumlah permintaan air ( 000 m3)

27,667

27,153

22,613

23,314

24,078

26,704

27,891

29,305

30,719

31,907

32,138

32,165

32,191

32,218

32,245

% tingkat pelayanan air

103%

109%

Proyek ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

137%

105%

103%

107%

105%

103%

105%

108%

110%

113%

116%

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX G: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BOND FINANCING SCHEME FOR INVESTMENT

FINANCIAL PROJECTION 2). New Project

Project Scenario

Term of Commercial Loan

Period

Funding Scenario

2 2). Bond

Interest Rate Masa Tenggang

2007

2008

2009

Financial Effective tarif increase(#month)

Rp./m3 Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million

Debt Service

Rp.million

Expansion Investment Cost Fee Trusstee & rating Routine Investment

Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million

Additional Customer Acc.Add.Customer

Connection Connection

Bond Scenario * Serie A * Serie B

Composition

Cross Check Investmen & Funding Commercial Loan/Bond Pemda Equity PDAM

2010 6

Tariff Increase Projection Average Tariff Cash + Deposit Minimum Cash Net Profit Incremental Cash Balance Control

0% 100%

7 tahun

3,134 384 17,133 12,292 1,763

20% 3,482 55,940 17,806 11,867 55,556 (0)

2011 6

0% 3,760 8,142 17,928 27,628 (47,798) (0)

14% 2 tahun

2012 6

2013 6

2014 6

2015 6

2016 6

2017 6

2018 6

20% 4,112 4,836 16,169 22,804 (3,306) 0

0% 4,440 8,771 17,179 26,388 3,934 (0)

20% 4,844 22,010 18,298 30,075 13,239 (0)

0% 5,235 39,587 19,764 34,088 17,577 (0)

20% 5,733 61,999 21,154 42,605 22,412 (0)

0% 6,206 90,086 22,705 52,506 28,087 (0)

20% 6,799 125,467 73,903 66,025 35,381 (0)

0% 7,366 128,243 20,512 64,802 2,777 (0)

19,761

19,344

17,961

12,297

110,670

0.0

43,079 0 0

73,358 157 0

14,120 157 0

0 157 6,554

0 157 7,013

0 157 7,504

0 157 8,029

0 157 8,591

0 157 9,192

0 157 9,836

3,389 3,389

4,000 7,389

5,000 12,389

5,000 17,389

5,000 22,389

1,000 23,389

100 23,489

100 23,589

100 23,689

100 23,789

100 23,889

0.00

0.0

Interest 11.5% 12.5%

Period 5.00 10.00

0.00

Issuance 1-Dec-08 1-Dec-08

0.00

74% 20% 6%

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Income Statement 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

REVENUE (IDR million)

27% Water Sales Administration & meter rental Water Revenue New Connection Fees Other Operating Revenues Total Other Revenues Total Revenues

14%

16%

14%

10%

47,967

60,917

56,759

63,774

63,489

80,424

91,635

105,907

121,107

138,366

152,036

167,360

182,705

201,120

219,561

984

6,527

13,231

11,982

12,564

13,231

14,593

15,293

16,204

16,219

17,045

17,061

17,930

17,946

47,967

61,901

63,286

77,005

75,472

92,988

104,866

120,499

136,399

154,570

168,255

184,405

199,766

219,050

237,507

1,830

2,265

4,904

2,216

3,123

5,211

6,513

7,490

1,498

150

172

198

844

1,163

1,322

2,174

1,601

1,797

2,026

2,182

2,967

2,906

3,187

3,458

3,814

4,202

2,674

3,428

6,226

2,216

5,297

6,812

8,311

8,539

9,672

4,465

3,056

3,359

3,630

3,986

4,401

50,641

65,328

69,512

79,221

80,768

99,799

113,177

129,038

146,071

159,035

171,311

187,764

203,396

223,036

241,908

80,722

10%

OPERATING EXPENSES (IDR million) Personnel

16,919

18,651

19,463

20,391

25,156

27,965

31,461

35,394

39,818

44,795

50,395

56,694

63,781

71,753

7,100

8,883

9,876

9,294

9,323

11,204

12,654

13,540

14,488

15,502

16,587

17,748

18,990

20,320

150

174

241

296

334

358

383

410

438

469

502

537

574

Maintenance

3,630

4,679

6,407

5,883

5,311

6,137

6,932

7,417

7,936

8,492

9,086

9,722

10,403

11,131

11,910

General & Administrative

5,188

9,438

10,618

11,945

13,439

15,118

17,008

19,134

21,526

24,217

Power Chemical

6,022

6,259

7,390

6,222

8,390

21,742

Bad Debts

363

424

512

291

560

638

738

843

964

1,059

1,166

1,272

1,401

1,529

Raw water

666

1,053

1,435

1,476

3,130

4,276

4,513

5,867

7,628

9,916

2.0

Annual Take or pay Bulk Treated Water Charge -

2.0

Annual Take or pay Bulk Treated Water Charge - East

Total Operating Expenses

Profit

33,951

39,790

43,590

45,118

49,675

58,828

65,971

72,578

81,281

89,468

98,551

110,435

121,710

134,295

150,611

12%

10%

16,689

25,539

25,922

10%

12%

10%

12%

40,971

47,206

56,461

64,790

69,567

72,760

77,330

81,686

88,741

366

588

277

343

247

15,610

1,185

1,869

3,192

6,110

14,108

24,327

37,047

Non Operating Expenses

(212)

(218)

(127)

(193)

(126)

110

121

136

149

165

184

203

224

251

41,069

62,926

57,767

66,795

72,908

79,034

91,622

106,216

126,012

124,780

33,232

16,844

25,909

5,054

10,063

5,642

9,564

10,459

9,692

12,277

16,678

17,526

17,919

18,340

18,790

19,272

19,787

EBIT

11,790

15,845

20,429

24,689

20,756

31,377

53,234

45,490

50,117

55,382

61,115

73,283

87,426

106,740

104,993

484

1,035

6,183

5,190

3,223

2,163

1,346

494

Interest - ……… Area

Trustee Fee

Rating Fee

Bond Interest - Series A

Bond Interest - Series B

12,297

EBT Corporate Tax Net Profit

31,215

91,296

EBITDA Depreciation Interest

34,253

31,094

10%

Non Operating Revenues

26,071

34,103

12%

11,306

14,811

14,246

19,499

17,533

16,917

39,433

32,541

37,662

42,928

48,661

60,829

74,972

94,286

92,539

3,297 8,009

4,575 10,235

4,376 9,871

5,641 13,858

5,241 12,292

5,050 11,867

11,805 27,628

9,737 22,804

11,274 26,388

12,854 30,075

14,573 34,088

18,224 42,605

22,467 52,506

28,261 66,025

27,737 64,802

Net Profit Distribution 0.55 Pemda

11,274

26,247

21,664

25,069

28,571

32,384

40,475

49,880

62,724

61,562

6,527

15,196

12,542

14,514

16,541

18,748

23,433

28,878

36,314

35,641

0.10

Employees

1,187

2,763

2,280

2,639

3,007

3,409

4,261

5,251

6,603

6,480

0.05

General Reserve

593

1,381

1,140

1,319

1,504

1,704

2,130

2,625

3,301

3,240

0.10

Social & Education Reserve

1,187

2,763

2,280

2,639

3,007

3,409

4,261

5,251

6,603

6,480

0.15

Pension Reserve

1,780

4,144

3,421

3,958

4,511

5,113

6,391

7,876

9,904

9,720

12,292

593

1,381

1,140

1,319

1,504

1,704

2,130

2,625

3,301

3,240

EAT after Profit Distribution

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Cash Flow Report 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

1 2009

2 2010

3 2011

4 2012

5 2013

6 2014

7 2015

8 2016

9 2017

10 2018

SOURCES OF FUNDS (IDR million) EBT + Interest

58,187

59,106

59,220

60,480

63,560

155

370

149

150

121

15,720

1,306

2,005

3,341

6,274

14,293

24,530

37,271

33,484

13,547

21,333

21,696

28,612

25,974

36,019

51,121

48,029

55,521

60,055

64,461

73,399

83,749

97,751

97,043

144

130

343

240

300

315

Water Meter Fee

5,962

6,278

6,924

7,257

7,689

7,696

8,088

8,096

8,508

8,516

Local Government Equity - New Investment

7,261

14,672

2,824

Local Government Equity - Reinvestment

3,263

7,598

6,271

7,257

8,271

9,374

11,716

14,439

18,157

PDAM Equity

Non Operating revenue income Net Profit Customer Deposit Reserve

13,393

8,667

Total Equity Total Debt Commercial Bank Loans

20,963

(7,812)

21,546

28,462

25,853

35,921

35,401

46,723

53,517

56,713

7,261

17,935

10,422

6,271

7,257

8,271

9,374

11,716

14,439

18,157

98,373

Bond - Seri A

Bond - Seri B

98,373

147,855

75,634

65,691

69,364

75,067

80,434

90,868

103,569

120,706

123,724

Total Sources of Funds

22,214

13,521

21,840

28,743

26,317

6,776

43,079

APPLICATIONS OF FUNDS (IDR million) New Investment

Bonds Issuance Fee Total Investment Routine Investment

36,303

73,358

14,120

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

9,836

Trustee Fee

Rating Fee

Sinking Fund - Bond Series A

Sinking Fund - Bond Series B

9,837

(59,024)

43,079

73,515

14,277

16,549

17,007

17,498

18,024

18,586

19,187

(49,031)

Total Investment Expenditure

79 0

Existing Loans Principal Repayment

1,005

10,000

10,400

5,301

5,701

5,170

Interest

484

1,035

6,183

5,190

3,223

2,163

1,346

494

Total

484

1,035

7,188

15,190

13,623

7,465

7,047

5,664

Bond - Series B Principal Repayment Interest Total Total Debt Service

484

1,035

7,188

Working Capital (exclud. Cash)

9,644

3,159

(7,833)

Increase/decrease assets and liabilities

4,631

(258)

(542)

12,297

110,670

19,344

12,297

110,670

(1,026)

(1,748)

(2,721)

15,190

13,623

19,761

17,961

12,297

(3,003)

12,250

7,489

(4,992)

4,045

940

1,179

467

(1,320)

7,405

9,256

1,851

185

7,894

185

98,373

3,625 185

2008 Budget Adjustments : Tax

Water Meter Reserve

5,962

6,278

6,924

7,257

7,689

7,696

8,088

8,096

8,508

8,516

Pemda Dividends

6,527

15,196

12,542

14,514

16,541

18,748

23,433

28,878

36,314

35,641

Employee reserve

1,187

2,763

2,280

2,639

3,007

3,409

4,261

5,251

6,603

6,480

General Reserve

Social and Education Reserve

Pension Reserve

890

2,072

1,710

1,979

2,256

2,557

3,195

3,938

4,952

4,860 120,947

Total Applications of Funds Annual Increase (Decrease) Cash (Beginning of Year) Cash (End Of Year)

14,760

3,936

(1,187)

20,081

24,553

92,299

123,432

68,997

65,430

61,828

62,857

68,456

75,482

85,324

7,454

9,586

23,026

8,661

1,763

55,556

(47,798)

(3,306)

3,934

13,239

17,577

22,412

28,087

35,381

2,777

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

384

55,940

8,142

4,836

8,771

22,010

39,587

61,999

90,086

125,467

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

384

55,940

8,142

4,836

8,771

22,010

39,587

61,999

90,086

125,467

128,243

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Balance Sheet 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Budget 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Assets (IDR million) Cash & Bank

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

384

17,806

8,142

4,836

8,771

18,298

19,764

21,154

22,705

73,903

20,512

Short Term Investments

38,135

3,711

19,823

40,845

67,380

51,563

107,731

Short Term Investment - Reserves

890

2,962

4,672

6,652

8,907

11,464

14,659

18,597

23,549

28,409

9,837

19,675

29,512

39,349

49,187

59,024

Trustee Reserve Sinking Fund Accounts Receivable Other Accounts Receivable Inventory Advance Payments Total Current Assets Land

7,037

9,443

8,676

7,812

10,264

12,253

13,399

14,914

16,882

19,131

20,825

22,824

24,725

27,111

29,396

3,950

837

1,162

1,336

1,512

1,713

1,865

2,044

2,214

2,428

2,633

118

121

164

173

176

181

185

190

195

200

5,053

6,654

7,720

4,303

8,915

9,106

10,212

11,235

12,582

13,849

15,255

17,095

18,840

20,789

23,314

14,153

21,109

17,086

14,746

20,495

79,121

35,998

37,157

56,408

85,462

118,688

158,155

203,838

258,562

212,195

976

1,672

1,351

Fixed Assets in operation

81,123

144,136

150,356

160,053

161,538

204,617

277,974

292,094

298,648

305,661

313,165

321,193

329,784

338,977

Accumulated Depreciation

(51,890)

(61,791)

(69,697)

(79,261)

(85,275)

(94,967)

(104,660)

(116,936)

(133,615)

(151,141)

(169,060)

(187,399)

(206,189)

(225,461)

(245,248)

30,208

83,320

81,635

82,463

77,614

67,921

101,308

162,389

159,830

148,858

137,952

127,116

116,355

105,674

18,103

435

1,980

43,079

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

9,836

2,677

2,419

1,877

9,771

8,451

15,856

25,112

34,368

43,624

45,476

45,661

45,846

46,031

46,216

46,401

65,141

107,284

102,578

106,980

106,560

205,977

235,776

248,034

266,416

286,808

309,804

339,146

374,815

419,645

363,512

922

4,672

Net Book Value Work In Progress Other Fixed Assets Total Assets

1,351

95,080

Liabilities & Equity (IDR million) Operation Accounts Payable

5,262

4,319

2,117

5,537

6,209

6,831

506

206

404

2,914

746

2,129

2,297

2,453

2,657

2,850

3,063

3,343

3,608

3,904

4,287

Taxes Payable

1,556

2,615

6,262

5,947

5,285

5,050

11,805

9,737

11,274

12,854

14,573

18,224

22,467

28,261

27,737

Long Term Debt - Current Portion

1,127

693

12,861

11,386

9,878

19,021

21,581

24,124

26,912

31,960

37,530

44,804

46,200

Other Accounts Payable

Leasing - Current Portion Total Current Liabilities

7,650

8,421

9,275

10,394

11,455

12,640

14,175

4,111

8,186

24,789

24,566

18,025

12,716

20,312

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

10,871

5,170

Commercial Bank Loan - East

Bond

98,373

Other Long Term Debt

Total Long Term Debt

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

109,244

103,543

98,373

Customer Deposit's

8,667

854

998

1,129

1,472

1,712

2,012

2,327

2,642

2,708

2,714

2,721

2,728

2,736

Long Term Debt

1,187

3,950

(0)

(0) 2,743

Social and Education Reserve

6,230

8,869

11,876

15,285

19,546

24,796

31,399

37,879

Pension Reserve

1,780

5,924

9,345

13,303

17,814

22,928

29,318

37,194

47,098

56,818

Reserve Water Meter Fees

10,688

11,268

13,017

18,076

5,878

7,652

8,833

9,828

12,718

Reserve Production Fund

(0)

Other Liabilities

14,545

19,195

21,099

23,974

32,266

35,473

42,680

48,696

55,608

63,193

71,722

82,380

95,513

112,027

128,235

Total Liabilities

37,112

75,563

72,630

70,212

66,463

157,433

166,534

166,090

175,562

185,690

197,007

212,713

231,416

255,204

174,434

6,102

7,102

10,061

12,402

19,662

37,597

48,019

54,290

61,547

69,817

79,192

90,908

105,347

123,504

0 1,955

Pemda Equity Central Government Equity Fixed Assets Revaluation Surplus

1,955

Other Equity

Reserve Fund

12,287

12,881

14,262

15,402

16,722

18,225

19,930

22,060

24,685

27,987

12,056

13,429

11,020

13,453

14,046

15,428

16,568

17,887

19,391

21,095

23,226

25,851

29,152

32,392

General Reserve Adjustment Net Profit (last year)

11,532

7,916

10,235

9,871

13,220

12,287

593

1,381

1,140

1,319

1,504

1,704

2,130

2,625

3,301

3,240

Equity & Reserves

28,029

31,721

29,948

36,768

40,097

48,544

69,242

81,944

90,854

101,118

112,798

126,432

143,399

164,441

189,078

Total Liabilities & Equity

65,141

107,283

102,578

106,980

106,560

205,977

235,776

248,034

266,416

286,808

309,804

339,146

374,815

419,645

363,512

Net Income (Loss) for current year

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX H: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS BOND FINANCING SCHEME FOR INVESTMENT AND LOAN REFINANCING

FINANCIAL PROJECTION 2). New Project

Project Scenario

Funding Scenario

2 2). Bond

Term of Commercial Loan Period

Masa Tenggang

2007

2008

2009

Financial Effective tarif increase(#month)

Rp./m3 Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million

Debt Service

Rp.million

Expansion Investment Cost Fee Trusstee & rating Routine Investment

Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million

Additional Customer Acc.Add.Customer

Connection Connection

Bond Scenario * Serie A * Serie B

Composition

Cross Check Investmen & Funding Commercial Loan/Bond Pemda Equity PDAM

2010 6

Tariff Increase Projection Average Tariff Cash + Deposit Minimum Cash Net Profit Incremental Cash Balance Control

0% 100%

7 tahun

Interest Rate

2011 6

14% 2 tahun

2012 6

2013 6

2014 6

2015 6

2016 6

2017 6

2018 6

20% 3,482 59,420 16,340 10,559 59,035 (0)

0% 3,760 16,645 16,503 27,661 (42,775) (0)

20% 4,112 17,162 17,104 21,449 517 0

0% 4,440 18,881 18,113 24,982 1,719 (0)

20% 4,844 30,072 19,233 28,894 11,191 (0)

0% 5,235 46,842 20,698 34,719 16,769 (0)

20% 5,733 68,058 22,088 43,080 21,216 (0)

0% 6,206 94,784 23,640 52,712 26,726 (0)

20% 6,799 128,620 82,312 65,912 33,836 (0)

0% 7,366 123,678 20,512 62,217 (4,942) (0)

31,149

16,413

15,110

14,166

14,165

127,487

0.0

44,108 0 0

73,358 181 0

14,120 181 0

0 181 6,554

0 181 7,013

0 181 7,504

0 181 8,029

0 181 8,591

0 181 9,192

0 181 9,836

3,389 3,389

4,000 7,389

5,000 12,389

5,000 17,389

5,000 22,389

1,000 23,389

100 23,489

100 23,589

100 23,689

100 23,789

100 23,889

0.00

3,134 384 22,827 12,292 1,763

0.0

Interest 11.5% 12.5%

Period 5.00 10.00

0.00

Issuance 1-Dec-08 1-Dec-08

0.00

74% 20% 6%

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Income Statement 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

REVENUE (IDR million) Water Sales Administration & meter rental Water Revenue New Connection Fees Other Operating Revenues Total Other Revenues Total Revenues

47,967

60,917

27%

14%

16%

14%

10%

56,759

63,774

63,489

80,424

91,635

105,907

121,107

138,366

152,036

167,360

182,705

201,120

219,561

984

6,527

13,231

11,982

12,564

13,231

14,593

15,293

16,204

16,219

17,045

17,061

17,930

17,946

47,967

61,901

63,286

77,005

75,472

92,988

104,866

120,499

136,399

154,570

168,255

184,405

199,766

219,050

237,507

1,830

2,265

4,904

2,216

3,123

5,211

6,513

7,490

1,498

150

172

198

844

1,163

1,322

2,174

1,601

1,797

2,026

2,182

2,967

2,906

3,187

3,458

3,814

4,202

2,674

3,428

6,226

2,216

5,297

6,812

8,311

8,539

9,672

4,465

3,056

3,359

3,630

3,986

4,401

50,641

65,328

69,512

79,221

80,768

99,799

113,177

129,038

146,071

159,035

171,311

187,764

203,396

223,036

241,908

10%

OPERATING EXPENSES (IDR million) Personnel

16,919

18,651

19,463

20,391

25,156

27,965

31,461

35,394

39,818

44,795

50,395

56,694

63,781

71,753

80,722

7,100

8,883

9,876

9,294

9,323

11,204

12,654

13,540

14,488

15,502

16,587

17,748

18,990

20,320

21,742

150

174

241

296

334

358

383

410

438

469

502

537

574

Maintenance

3,630

4,679

6,407

5,883

5,311

6,137

6,932

7,417

7,936

8,492

9,086

9,722

10,403

11,131

11,910

General & Administrative

5,188

6,022

6,259

7,390

6,222

8,390

9,438

10,618

11,945

13,439

15,118

17,008

19,134

21,526

24,217

Power Chemical

Bad Debts

363

424

512

291

560

638

738

843

964

1,059

1,166

1,272

1,401

1,529

Raw water

666

1,053

1,435

1,476

3,130

4,276

4,513

5,867

7,628

9,916

2.0

Annual Take or pay Bulk Treated Water Charge -

2.0

Annual Take or pay Bulk Treated Water Charge - East

Total Operating Expenses

Profit

33,951

39,790

43,590

45,118

49,675

58,828

65,971

72,578

81,281

89,468

98,551

110,435

121,710

134,295

150,611

12%

10%

12%

10%

12%

10%

12%

16,689

25,539

25,922

34,103

31,094

40,971

47,206

56,461

64,790

69,567

72,760

77,330

81,686

88,741

91,296

Non Operating Revenues

366

588

277

343

247

17,549

1,203

1,813

3,459

8,966

16,741

26,576

38,839

31,494

Non Operating Expenses

(212)

(218)

(127)

(193)

(126)

110

121

136

149

165

184

203

224

251

41,069

64,865

57,785

66,739

73,175

81,891

94,255

108,466

127,804

123,042

EBITDA Depreciation

16,844 5,054

10,063

5,642

9,564

10,459

9,692

12,339

16,740

17,587

17,981

18,401

18,852

19,333

19,849

EBIT

11,790

15,845

20,429

24,689

20,756

31,377

55,172

45,447

49,999

55,588

63,910

75,854

89,614

108,471

103,193

484

1,035

6,183

5,190

3,223

2,163

1,346

494

Interest - ……… Area

Trustee Fee

Rating Fee

Bond Interest - Series A

Interest

25,909

26,071

34,253

Bond Interest - Series B EBT Corporate Tax Net Profit

31,215

14,165

11,306

14,811

14,246

19,499

17,533

15,048

39,480

30,606

35,652

41,241

49,563

61,507

75,267

94,124

88,846

3,297 8,009

4,575 10,235

4,376 9,871

5,641 13,858

5,241 12,292

4,490 10,559

11,819 27,661

9,157 21,449

10,671 24,982

12,347 28,894

14,844 34,719

18,427 43,080

22,555 52,712

28,212 65,912

26,629 62,217

Net Profit Distribution Pemda

10,031

26,278

20,377

23,732

27,449

32,983

40,926

50,077

62,616

59,107

5,807

15,213

11,797

13,740

15,892

19,096

23,694

28,992

36,252

34,220

0.10

Employees

1,056

2,766

2,145

2,498

2,889

3,472

4,308

5,271

6,591

6,222

0.05

General Reserve

528

1,383

1,072

1,249

1,445

1,736

2,154

2,636

3,296

3,111

0.10

Social & Education Reserve

1,056

2,766

2,145

2,498

2,889

3,472

4,308

5,271

6,591

6,222

0.15

Pension Reserve

1,584

4,149

3,217

3,747

4,334

5,208

6,462

7,907

9,887

9,333

12,292

528

1,383

1,072

1,249

1,445

1,736

2,154

2,636

3,296

3,111

0.55

EAT after Profit Distribution

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PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Cash Flow Report 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

1 2009

2 2010

3 2011

4 2012

5 2013

6 2014

7 2015

8 2016

9 2017

10 2018

SOURCES OF FUNDS (IDR million) EBT + Interest

13,393

20,963

21,546

28,462

25,853

36,482

35,387

47,304

54,120

57,220

57,916

58,902

59,131

60,529

64,668

155

370

149

150

121

17,659

1,325

1,949

3,608

9,131

16,926

26,779

39,063

31,745

13,547

21,333

21,696

28,612

25,974

36,580

53,046

48,629

56,069

60,828

67,047

75,828

85,910

99,592

96,413

144

130

343

240

300

315

Water Meter Fee

5,962

6,278

6,924

7,257

7,689

7,696

8,088

8,096

8,508

8,516

Local Government Equity - New Investment

7,261

14,672

2,824

Local Government Equity - Reinvestment

2,904

7,607

5,898

6,870

7,946

9,548

11,847

14,496

18,126

PDAM Equity

7,261

17,575

10,431

5,898

6,870

7,946

9,548

11,847

14,496

18,126

Non Operating revenue income Net Profit Customer Deposit Reserve

8,667

Total Equity

Total Debt Commercial Bank Loans Bond - Seri A Bond - Seri B Total Sources of Funds

(7,812)

113,322

163,365

77,200

66,299

69,539

75,453

82,695

93,471

105,860

122,603

123,062

22,214

13,521

21,840

28,743

26,317

7,805

44,108

APPLICATIONS OF FUNDS (IDR million) New Investment

Bonds Issuance Fee Total Investment Routine Investment

36,303

73,358

14,120

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

9,836

Trustee Fee

Rating Fee

Sinking Fund - Bond Series A

Sinking Fund - Bond Series B

11,332

(67,993)

73,539

14,301

18,068

18,526

19,017

19,542

20,104

20,706

(57,976)

Total Investment Expenditure

44,108

91 0

Existing Loans Principal Repayment

1,005

10,000

10,400

14,821

901

451

Interest

484

1,035

6,183

5,190

3,223

2,163

1,346

494

Total

484

1,035

7,188

15,190

13,623

16,984

2,247

945

113,322

Bond - Series B Principal Repayment

Interest

14,165

127,487

16,413

14,165

127,487

(1,633)

(2,584)

Total Total Debt Service

484

1,035

7,188

Working Capital (exclud. Cash)

9,644

3,159

(7,833)

Increase/decrease assets and liabilities

4,631

(258)

(542)

15,190

13,623

31,149

15,110

14,166

14,165

(3,003)

12,250

8,050

(5,566)

4,640

962

1,082

(310)

(959)

(1,320)

7,405

9,256

1,851

185

7,894

185

4,684 185

2008 Budget Adjustments : Tax

Water Meter Reserve

5,962

6,278

6,924

7,257

7,689

7,696

8,088

8,096

8,508

8,516

Pemda Dividends

5,807

15,213

11,797

13,740

15,892

19,096

23,694

28,992

36,252

34,220

Employee reserve

1,056

2,766

2,145

2,498

2,889

3,472

4,308

5,271

6,591

6,222

General Reserve

Social and Education Reserve

Pension Reserve

792

2,075

1,609

1,874

2,167

2,604

3,231

3,953

4,943

4,666

24,553

104,329

119,974

65,782

67,820

64,262

65,926

72,255

79,134

88,767

128,004

Total Applications of Funds Annual Increase (Decrease) Cash (Beginning of Year) Cash (End Of Year)

14,760

3,936

(1,187)

7,454

9,586

23,026

8,661

1,763

59,035

517

1,719

11,191

16,769

21,216

26,726

33,836

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

384

59,420

16,645

17,162

18,881

30,072

46,842

68,058

94,784

128,620

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

384

59,420

16,645

17,162

18,881

30,072

46,842

68,058

94,784

128,620

123,678

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

20,081

(42,775)

(4,942)

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Balance Sheet 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Budget 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Assets (IDR million) 384

16,340

18,113

19,233

82,312

20,512

Short Term Investments

43,080

142

768

10,840

26,144

45,970

71,144

46,308

103,166

Short Term Investment - Reserves

Cash & Bank

2,031 0

1,018 0

591 0

2,513 0

792

16,503 2,866

17,104 4,475

6,349

8,516

11,120

20,698

14,351

22,088

18,304

23,640

23,248

27,914

11,332

22,664

33,997

45,329

56,661

67,993

7,037

9,443

8,676

7,812

10,264

12,253

13,399

14,914

16,882

19,131

20,825

22,824

24,725

27,111

29,396

3,950

837

1,162

1,336

1,512

1,713

1,865

2,044

2,214

2,428

2,633

Trustee Reserve Sinking Fund Accounts Receivable Other Accounts Receivable Inventory Advance Payments Total Current Assets Land

118

121

165

173

177

181

186

190

195

201

5,053

6,654

7,720

4,303

8,915

9,106

10,212

11,235

12,582

13,849

15,255

17,095

18,840

20,789

23,314

14,153

21,109

17,086

14,746

20,495

82,503

44,406

49,286

67,711

96,123

130,084

169,886

215,719

270,384

207,135

976

1,672

1,351

Fixed Assets in operation

81,123

144,136

150,356

160,053

161,538

205,646

279,004

293,124

299,678

306,691

314,194

322,223

330,814

340,006

Accumulated Depreciation

(51,890)

(61,791)

(69,697)

(79,261)

(85,275)

(94,967)

(104,660)

(116,998)

(133,739)

(151,326)

(169,307)

(187,708)

(206,560)

(225,893)

(245,742)

30,208

83,320

81,635

82,463

77,614

67,921

102,337

163,357

160,736

149,702

138,735

127,837

117,014

106,272

Net Book Value Work In Progress

95,615

18,103

435

1,980

44,108

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

9,836

2,677

2,419

1,877

9,771

8,451

15,856

25,112

34,368

43,624

45,476

45,661

45,846

46,031

46,216

46,401

65,141

107,284

102,578

106,980

106,560

210,389

245,214

261,131

278,625

298,314

321,983

351,597

387,355

432,064

358,987

Operation Accounts Payable

922

4,672

5,262

4,319

2,117

5,537

6,209

6,831

7,650

8,421

9,275

10,394

11,455

12,640

14,175

Other Accounts Payable

506

206

404

2,914

746

2,129

2,297

2,453

2,657

2,850

3,063

3,343

3,608

3,904

4,287

Taxes Payable

1,556

2,615

6,262

5,947

5,285

4,490

11,819

9,157

10,671

12,347

14,844

18,427

22,555

28,212

26,629

Long Term Debt - Current Portion

1,127

693

12,861

11,386

9,878

18,441

20,978

23,618

27,183

32,164

37,618

44,756

45,092

Other Fixed Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Equity (IDR million)

Leasing - Current Portion Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt

4,111

8,186

24,789

24,566

18,025

12,156

20,325

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

1,352

450

(0)

Commercial Bank Loan - East

Bond

113,322

Other Long Term Debt

Total Long Term Debt

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

114,674

113,773

113,322

Customer Deposit's

8,667

854

998

1,129

1,472

1,712

2,012

2,327

2,642

2,708

2,714

2,721

2,728

2,736

2,743

30,997

37,218

Social and Education Reserve

19,134

24,406

Pension Reserve

1,584

5,733

8,950

12,698

17,032

22,239

28,701

36,608

46,495

55,828

Reserve Water Meter Fees

10,688

11,268

13,017

18,076

Reserve Production Fund

1,056

3,822

5,967

8,465

11,354

14,826

(0)

5,878

7,652

8,833

9,828

12,718

Other Liabilities

14,545

19,195

21,099

23,974

32,266

35,146

42,361

48,038

54,599

61,888

70,575

81,352

94,537

111,022

126,583

Total Liabilities

37,112

75,563

72,630

70,212

66,463

161,975

176,459

179,801

188,899

198,828

211,079

226,838

245,477

269,100

171,675

6,102

7,102

10,061

12,402

19,662

37,237

47,668

53,567

60,436

68,382

77,930

89,777

104,273

122,399

Pemda Equity Central Government Equity Fixed Assets Revaluation Surplus Other Equity Reserve Fund General Reserve Adjustment Net Profit (last year)

1,955

12,287

12,815

14,198

15,271

16,520

17,965

19,701

21,855

24,490

27,786

12,056

13,429

11,020

11,532

13,453

13,981

15,364

16,436

17,685

19,130

20,866

23,020

25,656

28,951

32,062

7,916

10,235

9,871

13,220

12,287

528

1,383

1,072

1,249

1,445

1,736

2,154

2,636

3,296

3,111

Equity & Reserves

28,029

31,721

29,948

36,768

40,097

48,413

68,755

81,330

89,727

99,486

110,904

124,760

141,878

162,965

187,312

Total Liabilities & Equity

65,141

107,283

102,578

106,980

106,560

210,389

245,214

261,131

278,625

298,314

321,983

351,597

387,355

432,064

358,987

Net Income (Loss) for current year

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Balance Sheet 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Budget 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Assets (IDR million) Cash & Bank

384

17,806

22,705

73,903

20,512

Short Term Investments

38,135

3,711

19,823

40,845

67,380

51,563

107,731

Short Term Investment - Reserves

2,031 0

1,018 0

591 0

2,513 0

890

2,962

8,142

4,672

4,836

6,652

8,771

18,298 8,907

11,464

19,764

14,659

21,154

18,597

23,549

28,409

9,837

19,675

29,512

39,349

49,187

59,024

7,037

9,443

8,676

7,812

10,264

12,253

13,399

14,914

16,882

19,131

20,825

22,824

24,725

27,111

29,396

3,950

837

1,162

1,336

1,512

1,713

1,865

2,044

2,214

2,428

2,633

Trustee Reserve Sinking Fund Accounts Receivable Other Accounts Receivable Inventory Advance Payments Total Current Assets Land

118

121

164

173

176

181

185

190

195

200

5,053

6,654

7,720

4,303

8,915

9,106

10,212

11,235

12,582

13,849

15,255

17,095

18,840

20,789

23,314

14,153

21,109

17,086

14,746

20,495

79,121

35,998

37,157

56,408

85,462

118,688

158,155

203,838

258,562

212,195

976

1,672

1,351

Fixed Assets in operation

81,123

144,136

150,356

160,053

161,538

204,617

277,974

292,094

298,648

305,661

313,165

321,193

329,784

338,977

Accumulated Depreciation

(51,890)

(61,791)

(69,697)

(79,261)

(85,275)

(94,967)

(104,660)

(116,936)

(133,615)

(151,141)

(169,060)

(187,399)

(206,189)

(225,461)

(245,248)

30,208

83,320

81,635

82,463

77,614

67,921

101,308

162,389

159,830

148,858

137,952

127,116

116,355

105,674

Net Book Value Work In Progress

95,080

18,103

435

1,980

43,079

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

9,836

2,677

2,419

1,877

9,771

8,451

15,856

25,112

34,368

43,624

45,476

45,661

45,846

46,031

46,216

46,401

65,141

107,284

102,578

106,980

106,560

205,977

235,776

248,034

266,416

286,808

309,804

339,146

374,815

419,645

363,512

Operation Accounts Payable

922

4,672

5,262

4,319

2,117

5,537

6,209

6,831

7,650

8,421

9,275

10,394

11,455

12,640

14,175

Other Accounts Payable

506

206

404

2,914

746

2,129

2,297

2,453

2,657

2,850

3,063

3,343

3,608

3,904

4,287

Taxes Payable

1,556

2,615

6,262

5,947

5,285

5,050

11,805

9,737

11,274

12,854

14,573

18,224

22,467

28,261

27,737

Long Term Debt - Current Portion

1,127

693

12,861

11,386

9,878

19,021

21,581

24,124

26,912

31,960

37,530

44,804

46,200

Other Fixed Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Equity (IDR million)

Leasing - Current Portion Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt

4,111

8,186

24,789

24,566

18,025

12,716

20,312

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

10,871

5,170

(0)

Commercial Bank Loan - East

Bond

98,373

Other Long Term Debt

Total Long Term Debt

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

109,244

103,543

98,373

Customer Deposit's

8,667

854

998

1,129

1,472

1,712

2,012

2,327

2,642

2,708

2,714

2,721

2,728

2,736

2,743

31,399

37,879

Social and Education Reserve

19,546

24,796

Pension Reserve

1,780

5,924

9,345

13,303

17,814

22,928

29,318

37,194

47,098

56,818

Reserve Water Meter Fees

10,688

11,268

13,017

18,076

Reserve Production Fund

1,187

3,950

6,230

8,869

11,876

15,285

(0)

5,878

7,652

8,833

9,828

12,718

Other Liabilities

14,545

19,195

21,099

23,974

32,266

35,473

42,680

48,696

55,608

63,193

71,722

82,380

95,513

112,027

128,235

Total Liabilities

37,112

75,563

72,630

70,212

66,463

157,433

166,534

166,090

175,562

185,690

197,007

212,713

231,416

255,204

174,434

6,102

7,102

10,061

12,402

19,662

37,597

48,019

54,290

61,547

69,817

79,192

90,908

105,347

123,504

Pemda Equity Central Government Equity Fixed Assets Revaluation Surplus Other Equity Reserve Fund General Reserve Adjustment Net Profit (last year)

1,955

12,287

12,881

14,262

15,402

16,722

18,225

19,930

22,060

24,685

27,987

12,056

13,429

11,020

11,532

13,453

14,046

15,428

16,568

17,887

19,391

21,095

23,226

25,851

29,152

32,392

7,916

10,235

9,871

13,220

12,287

593

1,381

1,140

1,319

1,504

1,704

2,130

2,625

3,301

3,240

Equity & Reserves

28,029

31,721

29,948

36,768

40,097

48,544

69,242

81,944

90,854

101,118

112,798

126,432

143,399

164,441

189,078

Total Liabilities & Equity

65,141

107,283

102,578

106,980

106,560

205,977

235,776

248,034

266,416

286,808

309,804

339,146

374,815

419,645

363,512

Net Income (Loss) for current year

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX I: FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS COMMERCIAL LOAN FINANCING SCHEME

FINANCIAL PROJECTION 2). New Project

Project Scenario

Funding Scenario

3 3). Commercial Credit

Term of Commercial Loan Period

Masa Tenggang

2007

2008

2009

Financial Effective tarif increase(#month)

Rp./m3 Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million

Debt Service

Rp.million

Expansion Investment Cost Fee Trusstee & rating Routine Investment

Rp.million Rp.million Rp.million

Additional Customer Acc.Add.Customer

Connection Connection

Bond Scenario * Serie A * Serie B

Composition

Cross Check Investmen & Funding Commercial Loan/Bond Pemda Equity PDAM

2010 6

Tariff Increase Projection Average Tariff Cash + Deposit Minimum Cash Net Profit Incremental Cash Balance Control

0% 100%

7 tahun

Interest Rate

2011 6

14% 2 tahun

2012 6

2013 6

2014 6

2015 6

2016 6

2017 6

2018 6

20% 3,482 (13,954) 14,621 18,061 (14,339) (0)

0% 3,760 (10,185) 23,678 18,289 3,769 (0)

20% 4,112 (13,574) 23,829 23,535 (3,389) 0

0% 4,440 (16,922) 23,556 28,832 (3,347) (0)

20% 4,844 (10,190) 23,394 33,993 6,732 (0)

0% 5,235 982 23,576 38,473 11,172 (0)

20% 5,733 14,809 15,778 43,994 13,827 (0)

0% 6,206 47,963 16,557 48,776 33,153 (0)

20,432

12,975

29,460

27,617

25,052

22,487

19,922

1,544

0.0

36,303 0 0

73,358 0 0

14,120 0 0

0 0 6,554

0 0 7,013

0 0 7,504

0 0 8,029

0 0 8,591

0 0 9,192

0 0 9,836

3,389 3,389

4,000 7,389

5,000 12,389

5,000 17,389

5,000 22,389

1,000 23,389

100 23,489

100 23,589

100 23,689

100 23,789

100 23,889

0.00

3,134 384 17,469 12,292 1,763

0.0

Interest 11.5% 12.5%

Period 5.00 10.00

0.00

20% 6,799 91,375 18,568 63,222 43,412 (0)

0% 7,366 144,016 20,512 77,589 52,641 (0)

Issuance 1-Dec-08 1-Dec-08

0.00

74% 20% 6%

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Income Statement 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

REVENUE (IDR million) Water Sales Administration & meter rental Water Revenue New Connection Fees Other Operating Revenues Total Other Revenues Total Revenues

47,967

60,917

27%

14%

16%

14%

10%

56,759

63,774

63,489

80,424

91,635

105,907

121,107

138,366

152,036

167,360

182,705

201,120

219,561

984

6,527

13,231

11,982

12,564

13,231

14,593

15,293

16,204

16,219

17,045

17,061

17,930

17,946

47,967

61,901

63,286

77,005

75,472

92,988

104,866

120,499

136,399

154,570

168,255

184,405

199,766

219,050

237,507

1,830

2,265

4,904

2,216

3,123

5,211

6,513

7,490

1,498

150

172

198

844

1,163

1,322

2,174

1,601

1,797

2,026

2,182

2,967

2,906

3,187

3,458

3,814

4,202

2,674

3,428

6,226

2,216

5,297

6,812

8,311

8,539

9,672

4,465

3,056

3,359

3,630

3,986

4,401

50,641

65,328

69,512

79,221

80,768

99,799

113,177

129,038

146,071

159,035

171,311

187,764

203,396

223,036

241,908

10%

OPERATING EXPENSES (IDR million) Personnel

16,919

18,651

19,463

20,391

25,156

27,965

31,461

35,394

39,818

44,795

50,395

56,694

63,781

71,753

80,722

7,100

8,883

9,876

9,294

9,323

11,204

12,654

13,540

14,488

15,502

16,587

17,748

18,990

20,320

21,742

150

174

241

296

334

358

383

410

438

469

502

537

574

Maintenance

3,630

4,679

6,407

5,883

5,311

6,137

6,932

7,417

7,936

8,492

9,086

9,722

10,403

11,131

11,910

General & Administrative

5,188

6,022

6,259

7,390

6,222

8,390

9,438

10,618

11,945

13,439

15,118

17,008

19,134

21,526

24,217

Power Chemical

Bad Debts

363

424

512

291

560

638

738

843

964

1,059

1,166

1,272

1,401

1,529

Raw water

666

1,053

1,435

1,476

3,130

4,276

4,513

5,867

7,628

9,916

2.0

Annual Take or pay Bulk Treated Water Charge -

2.0

Annual Take or pay Bulk Treated Water Charge - East

Total Operating Expenses

Profit

33,951

39,790

43,590

45,118

49,675

58,828

65,971

72,578

81,281

89,468

98,551

110,435

121,710

134,295

150,611

12%

10%

12%

10%

12%

10%

12%

16,689

25,539

25,922

34,103

31,094

40,971

47,206

56,461

64,790

69,567

72,760

77,330

81,686

88,741

91,296

Non Operating Revenues

366

588

277

343

247

542

1,091

1,797

2,662

3,681

4,836

6,155

20,181

38,638

Non Operating Expenses

(212)

(218)

(127)

(193)

(126)

110

121

136

149

165

184

203

224

251

41,069

47,858

57,672

66,723

72,378

76,606

82,349

88,045

109,146

130,186

EBITDA Depreciation

16,844 5,054

10,063

5,642

9,564

10,459

9,692

11,870

16,272

17,119

17,512

17,933

18,383

18,865

19,381

EBIT

11,790

15,845

20,429

24,689

20,756

31,377

38,166

45,802

50,451

55,259

59,093

64,416

69,662

90,281

110,805

484

1,035

6,183

5,190

3,223

2,163

1,346

494

Interest - ……… Area

3,448

10,728

11,722

9,297

6,732

4,168

1,603

Trustee Fee

Rating Fee

Bond Interest - Series A

Interest

25,909

26,071

34,253

Bond Interest - Series B EBT Corporate Tax Net Profit

31,215

11,306

14,811

14,246

19,499

17,533

25,766

26,092

33,586

41,153

48,526

54,926

62,813

69,644

90,281

110,805

3,297 8,009

4,575 10,235

4,376 9,871

5,641 13,858

5,241 12,292

7,705 18,061

7,803 18,289

10,051 23,535

12,321 28,832

14,533 33,993

16,453 38,473

18,819 43,994

20,868 48,776

27,059 63,222

33,217 77,589

Net Profit Distribution Pemda

17,158

17,375

22,358

27,391

32,294

36,549

41,795

46,337

60,060

73,709

9,934

10,059

12,944

15,858

18,696

21,160

24,197

26,827

34,772

42,674

0.10

Employees

1,806

1,829

2,353

2,883

3,399

3,847

4,399

4,878

6,322

7,759

0.05

General Reserve

903

914

1,177

1,442

1,700

1,924

2,200

2,439

3,161

3,879

0.10

Social & Education Reserve

1,806

1,829

2,353

2,883

3,399

3,847

4,399

4,878

6,322

7,759

0.15

Pension Reserve

2,709

2,743

3,530

4,325

5,099

5,771

6,599

7,316

9,483

11,638

12,292

903

914

1,177

1,442

1,700

1,924

2,200

2,439

3,161

3,879

0.55

EAT after Profit Distribution

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Cash Flow Report 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Anggaran 2008

1 2009

2 2010

3 2011

4 2012

5 2013

6 2014

7 2015

8 2016

9 2017

10 2018

SOURCES OF FUNDS (IDR million) EBT + Interest Non Operating revenue income Net Profit Customer Deposit Reserve

13,393

20,963

21,546

28,462

25,853

33,266

39,403

46,410

52,469

55,034

56,307

58,511

60,818

61,682

155

370

149

150

121

652

1,212

1,932

2,811

3,846

5,020

6,359

20,405

38,889

13,547

21,333

21,696

28,612

25,974

33,365

40,055

47,622

54,402

57,845

60,153

63,530

67,177

82,087

96,969

144

130

8,667

343

240

300

315

Water Meter Fee

5,962

6,278

6,924

7,257

7,689

7,696

8,088

8,096

8,508

8,516

Local Government Equity - New Investment

7,261

14,672

2,824

Local Government Equity - Reinvestment

4,967

5,030

6,472

7,929

9,348

10,580

12,098

13,413

17,386

PDAM Equity

7,261

19,638

7,853

6,472

7,929

9,348

10,580

12,098

13,413

17,386

Total Equity

Total Debt Commercial Bank Loans Bond - Seri A Bond - Seri B Total Sources of Funds

(7,812)

58,080

26,864

54,285

10,449

26,864

54,285

10,449

73,691

120,557

73,163

68,445

73,529

77,204

82,206

87,378

104,015

122,878

22,214

13,521

21,840

28,743

26,317

73,358

14,120

36,303

73,358

14,120

0 9,836

APPLICATIONS OF FUNDS (IDR million) New Investment

Bonds Issuance Fee Total Investment

36,303

Routine Investment

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

Trustee Fee

Rating Fee

Sinking Fund - Bond Series A

Sinking Fund - Bond Series B

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

Total Investment Expenditure

36,303

(1,495) 8,341

Existing Loans Principal Repayment

1,005

10,000

10,400

14,821

901

451

Interest

484

1,035

6,183

5,190

3,223

2,163

1,346

494

Total

484

1,035

7,188

15,190

13,623

16,984

2,247

945

Principal Repayment

Interest

Bond - Series B

Total Total Debt Service

484

1,035

7,188

Working Capital (exclud. Cash)

9,644

3,159

(7,833)

Increase/decrease assets and liabilities

4,631

(258)

(542)

15,190

13,623

20,432

12,975

(3,003)

12,250

4,834

1,661

(1,320)

7,405

9,256

7,894

29,460 (271) 9,256

27,617

25,052

22,487

19,922

1,544

206

547

267

258

446

9,256

1,851

185

0 -

0 (3,118) 185

0 (3,056) 185

2008 Budget Adjustments : Tax

Water Meter Reserve

5,962

6,278

6,924

7,257

7,689

7,696

8,088

8,096

8,508

8,516

Pemda Dividends

9,934

10,059

12,944

15,858

18,696

21,160

24,197

26,827

34,772

42,674

Employee reserve

1,806

1,829

2,353

2,883

3,399

3,847

4,399

4,878

6,322

7,759

General Reserve

Social and Education Reserve

Pension Reserve

1,355

1,372

1,765

2,162

2,550

2,885

3,300

3,658

4,742

5,819

20,081

24,553

88,030

116,788

76,552

71,793

66,797

66,032

68,378

54,225

60,603

70,237

11,172

13,827

33,153

43,412

52,641

982

14,809

47,963

91,375

14,809

47,963

91,375

144,016

Total Applications of Funds Annual Increase (Decrease) Cash (Beginning of Year) Cash (End Of Year)

14,760

3,936

(1,187)

7,454

9,586

23,026

8,661

1,763

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

2,031

1,018

591

2,513

384

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

(14,339) 384 (13,954)

(3,389)

(3,347)

(13,954)

3,769

(10,185)

(13,574)

(16,922)

6,732

(10,185)

(13,574)

(16,922)

(10,190)

(10,190) 982

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

Balance Sheet 2004

2005

Realisasi 2007

2006

Budget 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Assets (IDR million) Cash & Bank

16,557

18,568

20,512

Short Term Investments

31,406

72,806

123,503

Short Term Investment - Reserves

2,031 0

1,018 0

591 0

2,513 0

384 0

(13,954) 1,355

(10,185) 2,726

(13,574) 4,491

(16,922) 6,654

(10,190) 9,203

12,089

982

15,388

14,809

19,047

23,788

29,607

7,037

9,443

8,676

7,812

10,264

12,253

13,399

14,914

16,882

19,131

20,825

22,824

24,725

27,111

3,950

837

1,162

1,336

1,512

1,713

1,865

2,044

2,214

2,428

Trustee Reserve Sinking Fund Accounts Receivable Other Accounts Receivable Inventory Advance Payments Total Current Assets Land

(1,495) 29,396 2,633

118

117

160

169

172

177

181

186

191

196

5,053

6,654

7,720

4,303

8,915

9,106

10,212

11,235

12,582

13,849

15,255

17,095

18,840

20,789

23,314

14,153

21,109

17,086

14,746

20,495

9,691

17,431

18,562

20,876

33,880

51,192

72,341

112,974

165,682

227,667

976

1,672

1,351

Fixed Assets in operation

81,123

144,136

150,356

160,053

161,538

197,841

271,199

285,318

291,872

298,885

306,389

314,418

323,009

332,201

Accumulated Depreciation

(51,890)

(61,791)

(69,697)

(79,261)

(85,275)

(94,967)

(104,660)

(116,530)

(132,802)

(149,921)

(167,433)

(185,366)

(203,750)

(222,615)

(241,995)

30,208

83,320

81,635

82,463

77,614

67,921

156,019

153,867

143,302

132,802

122,373

112,019

101,744

Net Book Value Work In Progress

94,532

91,556

18,103

435

1,980

36,303

73,358

14,120

6,554

7,013

7,504

8,029

8,591

9,192

9,836

2,677

2,419

1,877

9,771

8,451

15,856

25,112

34,368

43,624

45,476

45,661

45,846

46,031

46,216

46,401

65,141

107,284

102,578

106,980

106,560

129,772

210,433

223,069

224,922

229,670

237,159

248,589

279,615

322,834

375,460

Operation Accounts Payable

922

4,672

5,262

4,319

2,117

5,537

6,209

6,831

7,650

8,421

9,275

10,394

11,455

12,640

14,175

Other Accounts Payable

506

206

404

2,914

746

2,129

2,297

2,453

2,657

2,850

3,063

3,343

3,608

3,904

4,287

Taxes Payable

1,556

2,615

6,262

5,947

5,285

7,705

7,803

10,051

12,321

14,533

16,453

18,819

20,868

27,059

33,217

Long Term Debt - Current Portion

1,127

693

12,861

11,386

9,878

19,335

22,628

25,803

28,792

32,556

35,931

43,603

51,679

Other Fixed Assets Total Assets Liabilities & Equity (IDR million)

Leasing - Current Portion Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt

4,111

8,186

24,789

24,566

18,025

15,371

16,309

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

1,352

450

(0)

(0) (0)

Commercial Bank Loan - East

26,864

81,149

74,805

56,485

38,166

19,846

1,527

(0)

Bond

Other Long Term Debt

Total Long Term Debt

18,457

48,182

26,742

21,672

16,172

28,216

81,599

74,804

56,485

38,165

19,846

1,526

Customer Deposit's

8,667

854

998

1,129

1,472

1,712

2,012

2,327

2,642

2,708

2,714

2,721

Social and Education Reserve

1,806

3,635

5,989

8,872

12,271

16,118

(0)

2,736

2,743

31,718

39,476

20,518

25,395

Pension Reserve

2,709

5,453

8,983

13,308

18,407

24,178

30,777

38,093

47,576

59,215

Reserve Water Meter Fees

10,688

11,268

13,017

18,076

Reserve Production Fund

(0) 2,728

5,878

7,652

8,833

9,828

12,718

Other Liabilities

14,545

19,195

21,099

23,974

32,266

37,021

41,894

48,092

55,615

64,180

73,805

84,810

97,011

112,824

132,228

Total Liabilities

37,112

75,563

72,630

70,212

66,463

80,608

139,802

142,231

134,729

128,149

122,442

118,893

132,942

156,427

183,908

6,102

7,102

10,061

12,402

19,662

39,301

47,154

53,626

61,555

70,903

81,483

93,582

106,995

124,381

Pemda Equity Central Government Equity Fixed Assets Revaluation Surplus Other Equity Reserve Fund General Reserve Adjustment Net Profit (last year)

1,955

12,287

13,190

14,105

15,282

16,723

18,423

20,347

22,546

24,985

28,146

12,056

13,429

11,020

11,532

13,453

14,356

15,270

16,447

17,889

19,589

21,512

23,712

26,151

29,312

33,191

7,916

10,235

9,871

13,220

12,287

903

914

1,177

1,442

1,700

1,924

2,200

2,439

3,161

3,879

Equity & Reserves

28,029

31,721

29,948

36,768

40,097

49,164

70,631

80,838

90,193

101,521

114,717

129,696

146,672

166,408

191,553

Total Liabilities & Equity

65,141

107,283

102,578

106,980

106,560

129,772

210,433

223,069

224,922

229,670

237,159

248,589

279,615

322,834

375,460

Net Income (Loss) for current year

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX J: CALCULATION OF INVESTMENT FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY FINANCING ALTERNATIVE

BOND

COMMERSIAL LOAN

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Expenditures Investment O&M 43,078.5*) 8,554.9 73,357.9 14,234.2 14,119.6 18,695.7 24,112.4 28,372.2 32,568.2 37,838.3 41,925.3 46,028.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

51,311.0 47,954.2 44,817.0 41,885.0 39,144.9 36,584.0 34,190.7 31,953.9 29,863.4 27,909.8 26,083.9

Year

Discount Rate WACC 11.9% Note: *) incl. bond issuance costs

16,370.3 25,674.6 36,756.0 46,481.4 56,396.1 61,825.4 67,838.2 72,340.4 78,097.1

Net Cash Flow (35,263.1) (61,917.6) 3,940.7 22,369.0 28,023.9 29,257.2 29,999.9 30,415.2 32,069.0

Expenditures Investment O&M 36,302.8 8,554.9 73,357.9 14,234.2 14,119.6 18,695.7 24,112.4 28,372.2 32,568.2 37,838.3 41,925.3 46,028.0

82,370.6 94,714.7 88,518.4 82,727.5 77,315.4 72,257.4 67,530.3 63,112.4 58,983.5 55,124.8 51,518.5

31,059.6 46,760.5 43,701.4 40,842.4 38,170.5 35,673.4 33,339.6 31,158.5 29,120.1 27,215.0 25,434.6

51,311.0 47,954.2 44,817.0 41,885.0 39,144.9 36,584.0 34,190.7 31,953.9 29,863.4 27,909.8 26,083.9

Revenue

FIRR NPV

ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM WWW.ESP.OR.ID

23.3% 84,195.9

13.0%

Revenue 16,370.3 25,674.6 36,756.0 46,481.4 56,396.1 61,825.4 67,838.2 72,340.4 78,097.1

Net Cash Flow (28,487.3) (61,917.6) 3,940.7 22,369.0 28,023.9 29,257.2 29,999.9 30,415.2 32,069.0

82,370.6 94,714.7 88,518.4 82,727.5 77,315.4 72,257.4 67,530.3 63,112.4 58,983.5 55,124.8 51,518.5

31,059.6 46,760.5 43,701.4 40,842.4 38,170.5 35,673.4 33,339.6 31,158.5 29,120.1 27,215.0 25,434.6

FIRR NPV

24.9% 76,429.0

PDAM TIRTA DHARMA - PRELIMINARY FINANCIAL FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT PROPOSAL - REVISION

ANNEX K: PRESENT VALUE OF ALL COSTS RELATED TO FINANCING OPTIONS (IN RP MILLION) FINANCING OPTIONS

Total

1 2009

2 2010

3 2011

4 2012

5 2013

6 2014

7 2015

8 2016

9 2017

10 2018

Commercial Loan Principal Interest Loan Provision Total PV

91,597 47,715 1,494 140,807 106,419

3,448 134 3,582

10,728 406 11,133

16,793 11,722 374 28,889

18,319 9,297 282 27,899

18,319 6,732 191 25,243

18,319 4,168 99 22,586

18,319 1,603 8 19,930

1,527 18

1,544

Bond Principal Interest Issuance Cost Sinking Fund Trustee Interest Inc. Total PV

98,373 122,966 6,776 1,417 (12,395) 217,137 144,847

12,297 6,776 19,072

12,297

98,373 12,297

157 12,454

9,837 157 22,291

9,837 157 (590) 21,701

9,837 157 (1,180) 21,111

9,837 157 (1,771) 20,521

9,837 157 (2,361) 19,930

9,837 157 (2,951) 19,340

(59,024) 157 (3,541) 48,262

Commercial Loan Bond DIfference

Total Costs PV Nominal 140,807 106,419 217,137 144,847 (76,330) (40,551)

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ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES PROGRAM Ratu Plaza Building, 17th. Fl. Jl. Jend. Sudirman No. 9 Jakarta 10270 Indonesia Tel. +62-21-720-9594 Fax. +62-21-720-4546 www.esp.or.id