Oil price projection for the International Energy Agency scenarios and our scenarios

Our Base scenario considers an oil price range from an average of US$85/bbl in 2023 and reaching US$55/bbl from 2030 onwards. That price range is similar to the International Energy Agency’s APS scenario, which is aligned with a 50% probability of keeping the temperature increase below 1.7°C by 2100.

Our Resilience scenario, where we project an oil price of US$ 35/bbl in the long term, is similar to the price predicted in the International Energy Agency’s NZE scenario, which presents a 50% probability of limiting the temperature increase to 1.5ºC in accordance with the ambition of the Paris Agreement.