Global energy demand amidst COVID-19 pandemic

Global energy demand amidst pandemic

Even as demand for major fuels plunged globally in the first quarter of 2019 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, renewables gained fresh impetus indicates IEA’s Global Energy Review 2020. Shraddha Kakade, Assistant Editor - ETN summarizes key findings of the IEA report.

data collected from 30 countries, representing more than two-thirds of global energy demand.

Looking at a full-year impact, IEA report estimates, energy demand will fall by six percent – seven times the decline after the 2008 global financial crisis.

‘In absolute terms, the decline is equivalent of losing the entire energy demand of India, the world’s third-largest energy consumer,’ IEA stated.

According to the IEA analysis, the demand for all major fuels plunged following the announcement of lockdown (partial or com

in the Q1 2020, and the only source that recorded a growth in demand amidst the pandemic. “Only renewables are holding up during the previously unheardof slump in electricity use,” said Dr Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, commenting on the growth posted by renewables. Analysis from IEA data through mid-April shows that countries in full lockdown are experiencing an average 25 percent decline in Global energy demand ami energy demand per week, and coun dst COVID-19 pandemic tries in partial lockdown, a decline Even as demand for major fuels plunged globally in the first quarter of the year due to the on an average 18 percent. COVID-19 pandemic, renewables gained fresh impetus - indicates IEA’s Global Energy Review 2020. In China, where the COVID-19 Image for representation only lockdown was first implemented with T coal was the hardest hit—observing a drop by almost 8 percent relative to Q1 2019. Oil demand was neghe global energy demand declined by 3.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, with the Shraddha Kakade Assistant Editor, ETN Q1 2020, the drop in energy demand was the most, i.e. seven percent in comparison with Q1 2019. power mix shifting towards renewatively impacted too, and declined In the United States, energy by nearly 5 percent in the first demand fell by six percent comables across all major regions in the The global energy demand declined by 3.8 percent in the first quarter of 2020, with the world. quarter. However, the impact of the pared with Q1 2019. However, the power mix shifting towards renewables across all major regions in the world. pandemic on global gas demand decline in the month of March was In April, IEA released the, ‘Global In April, IEA released the, ‘Global Energy Review 2020’ a comprehensive report that was more moderate, at around not only due to COVID-19 lockdown Energy Review 2020’ a compreestimated the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions. 2 percent, as gas-based economies but also because of milder weather. hensive report that estimated the The report is based on data collected from 30 countries, representing more than two-thirds were not strongly affected in Q1 2020. impact of the COVID-19 crisis on of global energy demand. In the European Union, energy The good news, however, is that demand fell by 5 percent in comglobal energy demand and CO 2 Looking at a full-year impact, IEA report estimates, energy demand will fall by six percent – renewable remained the bright spot parison with Q1 2019. emissions. The report is based on seven times the decline after the 2008 global financial crisis.

around eight weeks of lockdown in plete) by countries around the Annual energy demand drop could see the worst decline since World War II. Annual energy demand drop could see the worst decline since World War II. world. The global demand for Source: IEA 2020 Source: IEA 2020

demand. Resultantly, the share of

“It is still too early to determine the longer-term impacts, but the energy industry that emerges from this crisis will be significantly different from the one that came before,” Dr Birol said.

Renewables demand in India

According to IEA’s latest weekly data, the gap between coal and renewables narrowed significantly in India.

Since the lockdown, the share of coal in the electricity mix is consis

Electricity mix in India, January – May 2020 of renewable, which was at 19 Source: IEA, based on POSOCO India Electricity mix in India, January – May 2020 percent in late March, jumped to 28 Source: IEA, based on POSOCO India percent by the end of May. As for India, the impact on in the electricity supply, as their In late May, with lockdown soften

Q1 2020 energy demand was output remains largely unaffected ing in many parts of the country the modest, with demand increasing by demand. Since the lockdown, the share of coal in the electricity mix is consistently under 70 percent. levels of electricity demand recovby 0.3 relative to Q1 2019. India implemented its first three-week According to the report, renewables experienced the largest The share of renewable, which was at 19 percent in late March, jumped to 28 percent by the end of May. ered while the rising share of renewables in the mix reflected their seacomplete lockdown on March 25, increase, with their share jumping to In late May, with lockdown softening in many parts of the country the levels of electricity sonal availability. therefore, major impact on weekly energy demand was only felt almost 13 percent, over half a percentage point above Q1 2019. The demand recovered while the rising share of renewables in the mix reflected their seasonal availability. In India, the electricity demand dropped quickly with closure of towards the end of March and the change in the overall power sector In India, the electricity demand dropped quickly with closure of factories and confinement factories and confinement meaimpact is projected to be notable by Q2 2020. mix was even more marked, with renewables increasing their share measures being stringently imposed. The demand drop was most in the second week of the nationwide lockdown, at around 25 percent. sures being stringently imposed. The demand drop was most in the In terms of consumption levels, from 26 percent in Q1 2019 to 27.5 By the end of May, electricity demand is starting to show steady recovery, this can be second week of the nationwide lockwith the shutdown of the commercial and industrial operation, it has percent in the first quarter of Q1 2020. The report underscored that in attributed to increased demand in summers and softening of lockdown stringency in some parts of the country. down, at around 25 percent. By the end of May, electricity resulted in a significant drop in elec Conclusion majority of the cases, renewables demand is starting to show steady tricity demand, but residential elecreceive priority in the grid and are not For the full-year estimates for 2020, IEA predicts that renewables demand is expected to recovery, this can be attributed to tricity demand showed an uptick, asked to adjust their output to match increase in comparison to other energy sources. This is primarily because of low operating increased demand in summers and with patterns on weekdays resemdemand, significantly insulating them costs, and preferential access to many power systems. Further, with recent growth in softening of lockdown stringency in bling that of a prolonged Sunday. from the impacts of lower electricity capacity and some new projects coming online this year will boost RE demand. some parts of the country. tently under 70 percent. The share

Trends in renewables renewables in the electricity generConclusion energy demand ation mix has recorded an increase For the full-year estimates for 2020,

What is being observed almost with record-high hourly shares of variIEA predicts that renewables demand across all regions of the world is able renewables in Belgium, Italy, is expected to increase in comparthat the demand depression has Germany, Hungary, and eastern parts ison to other energy sources. This lifted the share of renewables of the United States. is primarily because of low operating costs, and preferential access to many power systems. Further, with recent growth in capacity and some new projects coming online this year will boost RE demand. The demand for other major sources of low-carbon electricity, such as nuclear power and biofuels, is expected to fall, too. In fact, nuclear power is set to drop by three percent in 2020 − from the all-time high it reached last year. The global demand for biofuels is expected to fall significantly as restrictions on transport and travel reduce road transport fuel demand, including

Source: IEA Global Energy Review 2020 that for blended fuels. Source: IEA Global Energy Review 2020 May-June 2020 |