The Incision

NEWS & VIEWS

The Incision

‘The pandemic is over.’ But, is it?

By A bdul El-Sayed

It’s been more than two and a half years since the first CO I 1 lockdowns swept the world. Two and half years of lost parents and spouses, lovers and friends. Two and a half years of lost wages and opportunities, economic strife and frustration. Two and a half years of downs and ups, surges and ebbs.

I understand the urge to declare the pandemic I understand the urge to declare the pandemic over. ut pandemics have a way of frustrating over. ut pandemics have a way of frustrating our optimistic urges. And yet that didn’t stop our optimistic urges. And yet that didn’t stop President iden from making that declaration on 60 Minutes last week.

Contrast that with what World ealth Organi ation ecretary eneral Tedros Adhanom hebreyesus had to say earlier in the week “A marathon runner does not stop when the finish line comes into view. he runs harder, with all the energy she has left. o must we. We can see the finish line. We’re in a winning position. ut now is the worst time to stop running.”

The fundamental difference here is what these messages re uire of us. Where iden’s message signals that the end is here that we have nothing more to do hebreyesus signals that what we do now may dictate how fast we finish. o what does it mean to run through the finish line irst, it means recogni ing that the course may veer. ight now, we are watching A. , the dominant omicron subvariant, recede. Cases, hospitali ations, and deaths are down though they remain unacceptably high at an average of 1 deaths per day over the past two weeks.

The fact that cases are down is great news, because every single year of the pandemic thus far has seen a fall surge but one does not appear to be taking hold right now. cientists thought that if there were to be a surge, it would likely be a A. surge. Our fall vaccination campaign was built on that assumption, which is why both Pfi er and oderna are offering bivalent boosters, including another dose of the original vaccine m A and one tailor made for A. .

The decline of A. without a new omicron subvariant coming behind it suggests that the omicron subvariant surges original omicron, A.1, A.2, A.2.12.1, A. , and A. may have left behind enough anti omicron immunity to prevent the ne t subvariant from penetrating. ut that doesn’t mean that we may not see an entirely new variant emerge something that doesn’t rely on the omicron chassis but instead evades our omicron specific immunity. The fall is ust getting started, after all. y declaring the pandemic over, iden undercuts his own administration’s efforts to urge Congress to fund efforts to actually end it. A few weeks ago, they re uested 2 billion to support, in part, vaccines, testing, and treatments. The vast ma ority of hospitali ations and deaths to CO I right now are occurring among people who have yet to receive their first doses of vaccine, rather than those who are waiting to receive their fourth. That should force us to ask bigger uestions about how we continue to fight this pandemic. The hard part is the central uestion of motivation. The folks who are most protected in this moment are also the ones who are most likely to take the threat seriously and seek another course of the vaccine, while those for whom the threat is greatest have chosen to leave themselves vulnerable. unning through the finish line also re uires us to recogni e the toll of the race. The lasting impact of CO I isn’t only in the million Americans who’ve died and the millions more they’ve left behind. It’s also in the millions more suffering with long CO I . or them, the pandemic isn’t over for many it’s ust beginning. And the fact that we lack a firm understanding of what causes long CO I , how to prevent it, or how to treat it suggests that prematurely declaring the pandemic over may foreclose on the work we yet need to do to answer these basic uestions. inally, every marathoner analy es their races to prepare for their ne t one. This pandemic e posed ma or holes in our public health infrastructure. Indeed, it made them far worse. As I’ve written, monkeypo a disease that is far easier to prevent than CO I demonstrates ust how poorly prepared we are for the ne t ma or pandemic.

I understand the political incentives President iden is facing. The pandemic is not broadly popular and declaring it over is good politics going into a contentious midterm election. et the price of premature declarations could be high. Worse, it hampers the ability to truly bring the pandemic to an end.

immunity to prevent the ne t subvariant from penetrating. ut that doesn’t mean that we may not see an entirely new variant emerge something that doesn’t rely on the omicron chassis but instead President Biden declared the pandemic over on 60 Minutes last week. But pandemics have a way of confounding predictions. SHUTTERSTOCK O riginally published Sept. 20 in The Incision. G et more at abdulelsayed. substack.com.

EMPLOYMENT

Finite Element Analysis (FEA) Engineer, Brose North America, Auburn Hills, MI. Perform, analyze, & validate linear & non-linear CAE simulations, using LS-DYNA, ANSA, METAPost, & Oasys PRIMER tools, of psgr vehicle light weight/high strength steel structures for front seat syss for Front/Rear Impact, Luggage Retention, & Seat Belt Anchorage tests according to US FMVSS#208 Occupant crash protection, #210 Seat Belt Assembly Anchorages, #225 Child Restraint Anchorage Syss, & UNECE R14 SafetyBelt Anchorages, R16 Child Restraint Syss, R32 Vehicle Behavior in Rear-End Collisions, R17 Strength of Seats safety standards for seats. Work on preprocessing in ANSA & post-process simulated load cases using META-Post to validate seating syss w/ safety standards. Generate reports for sims w/ solutions to failures that may occur during sims & propose design countermeasures. Develop & use kinematics in ANSA to evaluate seat in various seat positions. Develop kinematics in Oasys PRIMER. Evaluate load cases for structural failures, safety criteria, & OEM reqrmnts. Master, Mechanical or Automotive Engrg, or related. 12 mos exp as Engineer or Analyst, analyzing or validating CAE simulations using LS-DYNA & META-Post tools of vehicle light weight/high strength steel structures or seats, & performing CAE sims according to U.S. FMVSS incl No. 210 Seat Belt Assembly Anchorages, or related. Mail resume to Ref#34408, Brose, Human Resources, 3933 Automation Ave, Auburn Hills, MI 48326.