Eurasia 2023/4 - web

EURASIA

Changing dynamicstowards a multipolar world

Table of contents

FOREWORD

Changes not seen for 100 years

– Levente Horváth GEURASIA

2-3.

China and Russia deepen ties

– Mariann Őry

4-5. How real is the Rift?

– Eric Hendriks

6-7.

The changing world order –Rivalry in the Middle East

– András Biró – András Kosztur

THE ECONOMICS OF GEOGRAPHY

8-9.

Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon

– Zoltán Koskovics NEW SUSTAINABLE ECONOMICS

10. ASEAN's commitment to sustainability

– Péter Klemensits

12. Eurasia Forum – top quotes

NEW AGE – NEW ROAD

13-15.

Moon to be humanity's next continent: interview with Orsolya Ferencz, Ministerial Commissioner for Space Research

– Flórián Hecker

2T2C: TALENT, TECHNOLOGY, CAPITAL, COGNITION

16-17.

High ambitions in Seoul

– Fruzsina Franciska Halász

19. Neumann 2023

CULTURE AND INNOVATION

20-22.

The K-Wave & Pop culture of the renegade country

– Nóra Terján

23. Highlights of Eurasia –Kazakhstan

24. Book reviews

“Geopolitically America is an island off the shores of the large landmass of Eurasia.”

Henry Kissinger

RHYMES IN HISTORY

26-27.

The Kondratiev wave theory

– Alexandra Zoltai

ANCIENT KNOWLEDGE IN A MODERN WORLD

29-31.

We have come to the ultimate questions: interview with physicist and astronomer Attila Grandpierre

– Tamás Nánási-Kézdy

Changes NOT SEENfor 100 YEARS

The Washington–Beijing–Moscow triangular diplomacy was developed in the 1950s, and in the past 70 years, it has been driven by the US. In the 21st century, the US seemingly gave up triangular diplomacy and let China and Russia deepen ties.

Xi Jinping, the President of the People’s Republic of China, paid a three-day state visit to Russia. During the visit, Xi told Putin, the President of Russia, that “right now there are changes, the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years, and we are the ones driving these changes together.”

These changes we haven’t seen for 100 years, but we have seen them in the past, especially in Chinese history: The Three Kingdoms.

The historical event “Three Kingdoms” in China is a perennial hit, and it has been the subject of historical accounts, novels, films and TV series, board games and computer games. But what is it all about?

Between 220 and 280 AD in China, the kingdoms of Wei, Shu and Wu fought to unite the Chinese Empire under their own banner. The historical event is a repository of Chinese geopolitical strategy.

At the beginning of the history of the three kingdoms, the Wei kingdom, led by Cao Cao, was the most powerful, Liu Bei, a descendant of Liu Bang who had ruled 400 years earlier, claimed the throne for himself with the Shu kingdom, and Sun Quan, living in the shadow of his famous father, led the Wu kingdom to unify the empire.

There are many similarities between the Washington-Beijing-Moscow international triangle of today and the historical event, with the following roles: the US has been the hegemonic ruler of the unipolar

Levente Horváth, Ph.D., Director of the Eurasia Center, Editor-in-Chief of the Eurasia Magazine

power (the Wei kingdom), China has historically accounted for 30 per cent of the world economy until the 19th century, and is aiming to achieve a Chinese Renaissance, while Russia, living in the shadow of its ‘father’, the Soviet Union, is striving for great power.

There are various alliances throughout the history of the three kingdoms, but ultimately, the Shu (China) and the Wu (Russia) ally against the strongest.

The question is, how will the story end? In the past, the Wei Kingdom won, but not under the rule of the Cao families, but under the leadership of the king’s strategist. Will it happen again, or will it have a different ending?

As I mentioned, in China, the story of “The Three Kingdoms” is a bestseller story, every Chinese watched movies about the Three Kingdoms, and the younger generation even spent a lot of time playing some kind of table game of The Three Kingdoms. Also, in the Chinese language, there are plenty of Chinese idioms from the story of The Three Kingdoms, so every Chinese is a master of triangular diplomacy.

We can not predict the end of the story, but we can tell some story about China via the magazine…

The Chinese and the Russian president signed major agreements

China and Russia DEEPEN TIES

by Mariann Őry

“THERE'S A CHANGE GOING ON NOW THAT HASN'T HAPPENED IN 100 YEARS. AND WE ARE MOVING THAT CHANGE TOGETHER” – THESE WERE THE WORDS WITH WHICH CHINESE PRESIDENT XI JINPING BID FAREWELL TO RUSSIAN PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN AFTER THE SECOND MEETING OF HIS LANDMARK VISIT TO MOSCOW.

Photo: AFP/Mikhail Tereshchenko

The world's attention was on Moscow when Chinese President Xi Jinping paid a three-day state visit – the highest in the gradation of foreign trips - to Moscow on 20 March. The Russian Federation was the first country the Chinese leader has visited since his March 10 re-election to a third term by the National People's Congress.

Upon his arrival, Xi Jinping said that China is ready to cooperate with Russia „to support true multilateralism, promote multipolarity in the world, democratise international relations and promote global governance on a more just and rational track”.

On the first day of his stay in the Russian capital, he held a one-to-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin for about four and a half hours, according to news agency reports. At the beginning of their meeting, the Russian president praised China’s successes: „China has made a colossal leap forward in its development over the recent years”.

The next day they held an extended meeting, and signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination for the New Era and a joint statement on the development planning for the key directions of China-Russia economic cooperation before 2030.

Xi invited President Putin and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to visit China and said that his country is ready to expand cooperation with Russia in trade, investment, supply chain, mega projects, energy and hi-tech areas.

– Xi Jinping in Russian Gazette (Российская газета)

Speaking to the press after the meeting, Putin said that the agreements they had signed „set forth a framework and fully reflect the special nature of Russian-Chinese relations, which are at the highest level in all our history”. He noted that with Xi Jinping they remain in touch at all times.

According to Xi, China-Russia relations go far beyond the bilateral scope and are crucial to the world and the future of mankind.

The author is an editor of Eurasia Magazine

No country is superior to others, no model of governance is universal, and no single country should dictate the international order

There are forces persistently working to split the common Eurasian space into a network of ”exclusive clubs“ and military blocs that would serve to contain our countries' development and harm their interests. This won't work

– Vladimir Putin in People’s Daily ( 人民日报)

Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin in Moscow

Photo: AFP/Sputnik Grigory Sysoyev

How real is the Rift?

by Eric Hendriks

A RIFT IS SAID TO BISECT EURASIA. THERE IS THE PART OF EUROPE THAT BELONGS TO THE WEST AND UPHOLDS AN AMERICA-CENTRIC LIBERAL ORDER. ON THE OTHER SIDE STAND EURASIA’S CIVILISATIONAL STATES: RUSSIA, TÜRKIYE, INDIA, AND CHINA, WHICH DOUBT WESTERN MOTIVES AND STRIVE FOR MULTIPOLARITY.

Every time has its geopolitical imaginings, and the Rift is the one that most captured our imagination. In this view, the political world subdivides into liberal freedom and authoritarianism; or, in the counter framing, Western hegemony and civilisational challengers.

Ukraine should keep fighting. These respondents agreed that “Ukraine needs to regain all of its territory even if it means a longer war.” This statement got 34 percent approval among American respondents, meaning that Americans are only slightly more likely to be pro-Ukraine ‘hawks.’

The diverging international responses to the Russo-Ukrainian War bring the Rift to the fore, regardless of Biden’s rhetorical insistence that “The world stands with Ukraine.” A European Council on Foreign Relations report on attitudes toward the War finds a “United West, divided from the rest.” Based on polls from fifteen countries, the report concludes that Westerners largely agree that the West “should help Ukraine win.” In contrast, “citizens in China, India, and Türkiye prefer a quick end to the war even if Ukraine has to concede territory.”

But this general conclusion, which comes from the report’s introduction, is not supported by the underlying data. The data shows, for example, that 23 percent of Chinese respondents believed

Yet, in high politics, too, there are misgivings about the Rift image. The Chinese government protests the “Cold War mentality” that informs it. In his February 21-essay on the Chinese news site Guancha, diplomat and geopolitical analyst Zhou Bo argues that it is unfair that Western rhetoric lumps China together with Russia in a club of “authoritarian revisionist countries” (专制的修正主义 国家). Zhou, a delegate for China at the 2023 Munich Security Conference, explains that China is different. “The attitude of Russia and China toward the world order diverge: Russia is ‘nostalgic’ and resistant to globalization and the world order, but China is not. China is a defender (捍卫者), not a destroyer (破坏者), of the world order.”

So how real is the Rift? As real as we make it. Vital are the actions of political and intellectual leaders, who can throw ropes to the other side and pull the world together—or do the opposite.

May the bridge builders outbuild the bridge burners.

The author is a Dutch sociologist, senior fellow at the Danube Institute, and former Peking University postdoc. He studies theories of world order.

People’s private opinions tend to be more dispersed than the position-takings of governments and public commentators.

ONE YEAR AFTER THE START OF THE WAR, AN INCREASING NUMBER OF COUNTRIES ARE SIDING WITH RUSSIA

NOTABLE COUNTRY POSITIONS SHIFTS SINCE 2022

THE CHANGING WORLD ORDER – RIVALRY IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Chinese President Xi Jinping with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Beijing

by András Biró – András Kosztur

Photo: AFP/AA, Volkan Furuncu

AS ONE OF THE SIDE EFFECTS OF THE RUSSO–UKRAINIAN WAR, IT BECAME VISIBLE THAT SEVERAL REGIONAL POWERS SHARE AN IDENTITY OF INTEREST WHEN IT COMES TO THE CHANGE OF THE UNIPOLAR WORLD ORDER, WHICH STARTED A REAL CHAIN REACTION IN THE FIELD OF GLOBAL GEOPOLITICAL REORGANIZATION.

Among the Middle Eastern countries, Türkiye enjoys a special position, as a NATO member the country is an ally of the United States and also a candidate for EU membership. Nonetheless, Ankara has not only chosen a different, but also an independent path from the policy of Washington, and instead of joining Western sanctions the country decided to remain neutral and emerge as a mediator in the Russo–Ukrainian war.

the crossroads of three continents, therefore both countries joined the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), while also approaching the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the BRICS group.

The third important power in the struggle for regional hegemony over the Middle East is undoubtedly Iran, which country has been forced to cope with international isolation and a multitude of sanctions for decades.

Just like Türkiye, Saudi Arabia also positions itself as a mediator. In addition, the mutually beneficial oil-for-security covenant, which cemented the Saudi–American partnership for decades seems to be unraveling, as Riyadh was not willing to meet Washington’s demands regarding the increase of oil production.

Saudi Arabia and Türkiye are trying to exploit their benefits in terms of the geostrategic location at

Presumably, on the one hand, the relationship between the three countries will drift toward competition for regional hegemony, while on the other hand, the prospects of Eurasian integration will steer them toward cooperation. One of the latest examples of that is the reconciliation among the two fierce rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which countries have agreed to re-establish diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies after their meeting in Beijing in March. This agreement also reflects the growing Chinese influence in the Middle East, which should not come as a surprise, as the emerging superpower has its own direct interests to maintain peace on the Eurasian continent.

András Biró – The author is a researcher at the 21st Century Institute

András Kosztur – The author is a senior researcher at the 21st Century Institute

Historic deal: Iran’s top security official, Ali Shamkhani, China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, and Saudi National Security Advisor Musaid al Aiban

With the decline of the USA’s influence in the Middle East, China can play a major role in security and stabilityrelated issues even in the near future

Photo: AFP/Xinhua, Luo Xiaoguang

CROUCHING TIGER, HIDDEN DRAGON

by Zoltán Koskovics

Having emerged from the COVID shutdown as abruptly as they entered it, Chinese companies are chomping at the bit to increase production. With the "Northern World" embroiled in a bloody proxy conflict in Ukraine, a vicious propaganda war on the Internet, and an economic confrontation unparalleled in recent history, China could reap all the benefits.

Economic changes will further dilute Western influence in international trade, weaken the position of the euro and the U.S. dollar as global reserve currencies, and shift the centre of the world economy even closer to China. The image and reputation of the West will continue to suffer as billions of people in the global South refuse to understand why they should endure the negative consequences of a quintessentially Western conflict in faraway Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Beijing is investing heavily in its own energy sector, which could soon turn it into an energy superpower, in conjunction with growing imports from Russia. Already last year, the Middle Kingdom sold billions of tons of surplus LNG to the gas-starved EU. As the central hub of global logistics, China will play a crucial role in rebuilding supply chains after the disruptions caused by the pandemic, war, and sanctions - giving it additional leverage in international affairs. The crouching tiger is about to leap, and the hidden dragon will soon be revealed.

The author is a geopolitical analyst at the Center for Fundamental Rights (Alapjogokért Központ)

AS THE WORLD ENTERS A RAPIDLY CHANGING, MORE DANGEROUS CHAPTER, CHINA IS WELL-PLACED TO ENTER THE NEW ERA WITH DYNAMIC GROWTH, A VIBRANT ECONOMY, AND INCREASING ROOM TO MANOEUVRE ON THE WORLD STAGE.

Source: iStock

Western sanctions on Russian natural gas and oil mean that Beijing now has a virtually unlimited supply of cheap energy at a time when its long-term investments in renewables are also bearing fruit.

ASEAN'S COMMITMENT TO SUSTAINABILITY

AFTER ITS FOUNDING IN 1967, THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS (ASEAN) COMMITTED ITSELF TO PEACEFUL, STABLE, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION, BUT SUSTAINABILITY WAS NOT ADDED TO THE ORGANISATION'S AGENDA UNTIL YEARS LATER.

Livelihoods in the region depend heavily on agriculture, natural resources and forestry. But many are threatened by rising temperatures, declining rainfall and rising sea levels.

The organisation itself has acknowledged that natural disasters such as heat waves, droughts, floods and tropical cyclones are increasing in intensity and frequency, due in no small part to past

policies that prioritised economic development but paid little attention to environmental pollution. Sustainable development is therefore the only way forward for the countries of Southeast Asia.

The 2015 ASEAN Charter states that ASEAN is committed to ensuring sustainable development for the benefit of present and future generations and to safeguarding the livelihood and well-being of its people. The ASEAN Community Vision 2025 also emphasises that the region will focus on environmental protection, climate change adaptation and response, and green technologies and development for the present and the future.

ASIAN NATIONS Malaysia Singapore

Brunei

Vietnam

Thailand

Myanmar

(Burma)

by Péter Klemensits

EURASIA FORUM top quotes

China thinks ahead, and the key is functional digitalization and data.

Henry T. Tillman Founder of Grisons Peak Services, China Investment Research

We are living in the sustainable connectivity of the complex Eurasian age.

Norbert Csizmadia President of the Board of Trustees, Pallas Athéné Domus Meriti Foundation

We're looking for a new way of life, and also we're looking for a new way of modernisation by the best balance between economic growth, social development and environment rendering.

Biliang Hu Executive Dean of Belt and Road School (BRS), Beijing Normal University

MOON TO BE HUMANITY'S NEXT CONTINENT

by Flórián Hecker

Photos: Éberling András

- What is the significance of space research?

- Space technology is now relied upon for global basic services at the level of economic and civil applications, such as navigation, banking and telecommunications systems. It is also of particular importance in digital agriculture, measuring soil moisture or atmospheric composition. The drought of biblical proportions has drawn even more attention to this fact. Understanding the comprehensive background of climate change is based on a satellite database. It is also a cornerstone of security pol-icy: space technology is at the core of earth observation, navigation and remote sensing.

– We are clearly talking about a global sector. How does it relate to Hungary?

PARTNERSHIP IS MORE IMPORTANT THAN EVER: THE JOINT DEVELOPMENT OF SPACE RESEARCH IS THE KEY TO THE SURVIVAL OF HUMANITY, ACCORDING TO ORSOLYA FERENCZ, MINISTERIAL COMMISSIONER FOR SPACE RESEARCH.

– Hungary has a long history of participating in the scientific side of space research, but its direct past dates back to the 1946 lunar radar experiment. In brief, the team of engineers led by Zoltán Bay and Károly Simonyi measured the Earth-Moon distance using radar signals, the second in the world to do so. Apart from them, only the US was engaged in such activities. In total, four countries have been able to build radars independently: the German Empire, the United Kingdom, the United States and Hungary. However, the World War front destroyed some of the

equipment, while the Red Army captured other parts. Therefore, the Hungarian radar had to be rebuilt for the second time, but in the meantime the American team, a few weeks ahead of the Hungarians, successfully completed the experiment. In other words, this was essentially a silver medal equiva-

- Where would the first space mine be established?

- The Moon could be humanity's next continent. It is not scientific or literary interest that drives people there, but specifically economic and security policy considera-tions. The Moon has large reserves of tritium compared to the Earth's surface. How-ever, it is important to see that lunar activity is a highly sensitive issue. Any activity that might interfere with this is a risk to humanity.

lent, but what unquestionably is worthy of a gold medal is the Bay correlation reception technique, which is still key in everything from communications to radio astronomy.

– And what is our current situation?

– Hungary emerged from the Soviet Interkosmos programme — within the framework of which, by the way, Hungary achieved significant results that led humanity to the everyday use of space — after 1990, and since 2015 it has been a fully fledged member of the ESA (European Space Agency) with wide-ranging cooperation opportunities. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFA) assumed oversight of this area in 2018, with a strong focus on space diplomacy and economic relevance. To this end, cooperation has been extended to all continents, although the main points of alignment are the EU, the ESA and NATO. But we have to recognise that this is a global game and everyone is involved.

- What could be the next big thing in the near future? Is there a ‘man in space’ project in the pipeline?

- It is not a matter of the near future, but it is here, it has arrived, there are already start-ups launched on its basis: space resource exploration, or more simply put, space mining. There are many free resources available in the solar system, and exploiting them could create the economic foundation for the coming era.

- Can human life be transferred to the Moon?

- There is no point in pursuing this idea. There will be no transfer, no plan B, no planet B. The human body is a ‘spacesuit’ optimised for terrestrial conditions. Numerous studies have shown that the Earth's gravity field determines the way our bodies work, how our blood circulates, how our muscles grow, how our bones thin, and so on. Mars is a legendary target in this respect, except that it has no magnetic field, which makes it incompatible with our DNA. We cannot even deal with the problems on Earth, how are we going to create a magnetic shield around another planet? Our task, instead, is to keep the Earth fit for human life.

The author is a journalist

Photo: iStock

There will be no transfer, no plan B, no planet B.

HIGH AMBITIONS IN SEOUL

by Fruzsina Franciska Halász

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION IS THE DRIVER OF SOUTH KOREA’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AND NATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS. IN AN ERA OF GLOBAL TECHNOLOGICAL COMPETITION, WHERE THE TECHNOLOGIES OF THE FUTURE DETERMINE THE FATE OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY, SECURITY AND DIPLOMACY, SOUTH KOREA’S GOAL IS TO BECOME ONE OF THE WORLD’S MOST TECHNOLOGICALLY ADVANCED NATIONS, AND TO LEAD IN KEY NEW TECHNOLOGY SECTORS.

Experts say quantum technologies represent the next wave of digital transformation. Within ten years, quantum computing, quantum communications and quantum sensing could fundamentally change our daily lives, our societies and the global economy. These technologies promise exponentially faster problem-solving than the world’s currently most advanced non-quantum supercomputers, interception-proof communication systems or sophisticated sensor technologies.

In order to ensure South Korea’s global technological leadership, President Yoon Suk-yeol announced the National Strategic Technology Nurture Plan on 28 October 2022, which sets out a national policy to support strategic technologies that contribute to social welfare and national secu-

rity as part of the country’s long-term growth agenda. The support plan identifies quantum technology as a priority national strategic technology. South Korea has the explicit goal of becoming an industry leader in quantum technology — quantum computing in particular. The government aims to develop a quantum computer by 2026 and other quantum products (such as quantum sensors capable of detecting faulty semiconductors) by 2027. With these steps, South Korea aims to further strengthen its position in the geo-technological race of the 21st century.

The author is a Junior International Expert at Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary)

South Korea has the explicit ambition of becoming one of the world’s top four quantum technology powers by 2030

Photo: AFP/Sebastien Bozon

THE MAN FROM THE FUTURE

Indian science writer Ananyo Bhattacharya's book The Man from the Future: the Visionary Life of John von Neumann was launched at the university named after the legendary Hungarian-born scientist. The book is an electrifying biography of one of the most extraordinary scientists of the twentieth century and the world he made. According to the books’s profile, ”taking us on an astonishing journey, Ananyo Bhattacharya explores how a combination of genius and unique historical circumstance allowed a single man to sweep through a stunningly diverse array of fields, sparking revolutions wherever he went. The Man from the Future is an insightful and thrilling intellectual biography of the visionary thinker who shaped our century”.

"I don't know of any other scientist who has been as influential as him," Ananyo Bhattacharya told Hungarian weekly Mandiner. "With great exaggeration, of course, but the one idea people can associate with Einstein is the theory of relativity. The 'problem' with János Neumann is that he had too many epoch-making ideas, making him harder to absorb. But it is already enough to mention that he created the simulation of the world's first computer," he explained.

CELEBRATING EXCELLENCE

The Neumann Excellence Awards were presented for the second time at the John von Neumann University in Kecskemét. In 2022, the prestigious award was established by the John von Neumann University Foundation with the intention of giving the institution's colleagues the opportunity to celebrate together and show the world the outstanding achievements of their everyday work.

Photos: NJE

THE K-WAVE

by Nóra Terján

THE VERY FIRST SUBTITLED FILM TO WIN THE ACADEMY AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE. THE FIRST EVER VIDEO TO GET OVER ONE BILLION VIEWS ON YOUTUBE. THE BIGGEST NETFLIX HIT. WHAT DO THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON? THEY ARE ALL PART OF THE HALLYU, OR CULTURAL WAVE THAT STARTED IN SOUTH KOREA AND SEEMS TO BE SLOWLY CONQUERING THE WORLD.

Korean American journalist Euny Hong first used the term ‘hallyu’ in her book The Birth of Korean Cool to describe the cultural wave that was emerging in the country. The roaring success of South Korea’s film industry – Hallyuwood – lies in the meeting of Hollywood and Asian film traditions. The rise of Hallyuwood did not begin in recent years. The first really big international success was Park Chan-wook’s film Oldboy, a visceral revenge story that quickly became a cult film in Europe and the United States.

In 2019, Bong Joon-ho won the Palme d’Or at Cannes, and from then on there was no stopping him, winning four Oscars. In addition, Parasite was also the first non-English-language film to win the American Film Academy’s top prize, the golden statue for Best Picture.

Perhaps the biggest Netflix sensation of 2021 was Squid Game, which topped the streaming giant’s worldwide ratings for a long time.

According to Motion Pictures’ annual summary, South Korea’s film revenue in 2018 was USD 1.6 billion, the fourth largest in markets outside the United States.

Korea’s international successes also followed in other walks of cultural life: the 2002 football World Cup, the 2018 Winter Olympics, and the explosion of South Korean pop music, or K-pop, which has reached astonishing heights, led by the hit Gangnam Style.

South Korea realised that they don’t have to chase the American dream when in fact they have their own Korean dream

Photo: AFP/Anthony Wallace

Photo: AFP/Jung YEon-je

Scene from Squid Game

Gangnam Style statue in Seoul

Statue of Younghee from Squid Game

Source: Netflix

POP CULTURE OF THE RENEGADE COUNTRY

While South Korean pop stars with billions of views are adored by the world’s youth, the North Korean ‘popular genre’ can be divided into two regime-compliant types: revolutionary music and state-controlled popular music.

Not surprisingly, the revolutionary music is performed by various choirs of the Korean People’s Army. Their songs are usually about the struggle against imperialism, about victory and patriotism.

The unique genre of North Korean light music is represented by groups such as the Moranbong Band, a favourite of the ‘Dear Leader’, the Unhasu Orchestra, the Wangjaesan Light Music Band, the Chongbong Band, the Yun I-sang Orchestra, and the Mansudae Art Troupe, which also performs operas. Their sound is almost pop music, their performers also use electric instruments, but they mostly sing about the incessant fight, industry and the life of the people.

Kim Il-Sung and his successor, Kim Jong-il, considered themselves veritable ‘cinephiles’ and advocated the production of propaganda films based on Juche ideology. Film production in the country is, of course, controlled by the state party.

Dancers of the Mansudae Art Troupe

Photo: AFP/Kim Won Jin

Photo: AFP/Kim Won Jin

Mausoleum of Khoja Ahmed Yasawi

The mausoleum in the city of Turkestan was commissioned in 1389 by Turco-Mongol conqueror Timur, to replace a smaller 12th-century mausoleum of the famous Turkic poet and Sufi mystic, Khoja Ahmed Yasawi (1093–1166). The UNESCO recognized it as the country's first site of patrimony, declaring it a World Heritage Site in 2003.

Astana

Kazakhstan’s second largest city is a modern, planned city which has dramatically changed when it became the capital of the country in 1997. Following the masterplan of Japanese architect Kisho Kurokawa, Astana is home to a range of futuristic buildings, including many skyscrapers.

Nur-Astana Mosque

The third largest mosque in Central Asia can be found in Astana. The 40-metre height symbolises the age of the Islamic prophet Muhammad when he received the revelations, and the height of the minarets are 63 metres, the age Muhammad was when he died.

Photo: iStock

Photo: iStock

Photo: AFP/Michael Runkel

J. C. Sharman

Empires of the Weak

John Mearsheimer

Great Delusion

Publisher: Princeton University Press

Publication date: 2019

ISBN: 978-0691182797

Pages: 216

Large parts of Africa, America, and Asia were colonised by dominant European powers during the Age of Discovery, which meant that the European expansion of the 15th and 18th centuries formed the first global political and economic systems. The author argues that the great conquerors at the dawn of the modern age were not the Europeans, but rather the Asian powers, such as the Ottoman Turks in the Middle East and the Ming and Qing dynasties in China. Whereas, in the case of the conquest of America, a plague that decimated the indigenous population served as the base of European supremacy. For this reason, the dominance of the West should rather be viewed as an exception, while the rise of Asia in the 21st century may be considered a return to the norm.

Published by: Yale University Press

Year of publication: 2018

ISBN: 978-0300234190

Pages: 328

The great powers that dominate the international system are constantly engaged in security competition, that sometimes lead to war, according to John Mearsheimer, the American political thinker and a leading exponent of the realist school. In order to avoid this and to achieve their foreign policy goals, actors involved in international politics are, in his view, pursuing three world-views – liberalism, realism and nationalism. Emerging victorious from the Cold War, the United States became the sole great power in the world, and as a deeply liberal country, its objective was to spread liberal democracy, which is the basis for peace, because liberal democracies do not want to go to war with each other.

The Kondratiev wave theory

By Alexandra Zoltai

NIKOLAI KONDRATIEV, A RUSSIAN ECONOMIST, WAS ONE OF THE FIRST TO POINT OUT THAT INDUSTRIAL ECONOMIES RESPOND TO CYCLICAL CHANGES IN PRICES AND OUTPUT

1780-1830

1830-1880

1880-1930

1930-1970

1970-~2008

1st KONDRATIEV Steam engine

4th KONDRATIEV Automobiles, petrochemicals

5th KONDRATIEV IT, communications technology

3rd KONDRATIEV Eletrification, chemicals

6th KONDRATIEV Space technology, healthcare ~2008-

2nd KONDRATIEV Railway, steel

Graphic: Alexandra Érsek-Csanádi

Cyclical theories are classical models for explaining economic crises; their common feature is that they separate growth (expansion) and contraction phases in economic development and speak of a dynamic equilibrium with fluctuations instead of a static market equilibrium. It can be assumed that there are long waves in the capitalist economy, lasting an average of 50 years.

Kondratiev noted four empirical regularities, which are as follows:

Before or at the beginning of the rising tide of long cycles, significant changes take place in economic life: the emergence of inventions and their application, changes in the conditions of production, the expansion of world economic

relations, changes in the circulation of money, the increase in gold production.

During the rising tide of long cycles, social upheavals and overthrows [revolutions, wars] are much more frequent;

In the period of the declining tide of long cycles, agriculture is also in permanent crisis; In the downturn period of the long cycles, the depression phases of the middle cycles of 8-11 years are longer and deeper, while the recovery is short and weak.

How the global economy works in 60-year cycles

George Friedman eloquently argues for three 50-year cycles (40 + 10 years) in the global economy of the last 150 years (Geopolitical Futures, 24 September 2021). The three cases are the United States between 1890 and 1930, Japan between 1950 and 1990 and China between 1980 and 2020. His point is simple and convincing. Based on cheap labour and productive innovation, all three nations manufactured low-cost products for the consumption of wealthy nations. After a 40-year period, rich customers were either unable or unwilling to buy those products and an approximately 10-year period of restructuring followed the 40-year success story. Friedman, however, can’t figure out the reason for his 40 + 10-year cycle. What if the real reason is that the cycle is longer and covers a 60-year period of time? Indeed, three 20-year mini-cycles add up to a 60-year period, because restructuring takes two decades rather than one. We entered Kondratiev’s world of 60-year business cycles based on the investment patterns of the domestic economy. These inner cycles tend to expand into the world economy in the case of our three large nations finally forming a global pattern.

(György Matolcsy – On the Edge of Times: The Rerun of the 1940s and the 1970s, 2022)

Many economists believe that we are already in the sixth Kondratiev wave, which began around 2008. In particular, they believe that this cycle will be fueled by the space age and the development of healthcare.

The author is a researcher at the Eurasia Center of John von Neumann University

Photo: AFP/NASA, Alexander Gerst

WE HAVE COME TO THE ULTIMATE QUESTIONS

by Tamás Nánási-Kézdy Photos: Orsolya Egressy

ATTILA GRANDPIERRE, PHYSICIST, ASTRONOMER, PHD, CANDIDATE OF SCIENCES, MEMBER OF THE PUBLIC BODY OF THE HUNGARIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND RESEARCH PRESIDENT AT THE BUDAPEST CENTRE FOR LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY SPOKE TO EURASIA ABOUT THE ESSENCE OF THE UNIVERSE, THE ANCIENT SILK ROAD AND THE MISSION OF THE HUNGARIAN NATION.

– How did you get from studying the Universe to ancient history?

– The first significant turning point came when I learned what the essence of the Universe was. Ervin Bauer ignited the spark: my father handed me his book on theoretical biology when I was 17 years old. In this volume, far ahead of his time, the renowned scientist presents his discovery of the universal principle governing the energetic side of life. After having developed this proposition further, I came to the conclusion that the driving force of the Universe is founded on three principles: the principle of matter, the principle of reason, and, most significantly, the principle of life, which encompasses the other two and without which they would be meaningless. The three principles are essentially one: the principle of life unites them into a Trinity. As I was approaching

the concept of the trinity of body, soul and spirit – the principle of life that creates unity from these three horizontally imagined parallels, and becomes prominent and unifying as it rises from the central position, becoming vertical – unexpectedly and to my enormous surprise, a double cross appeared in front of me. This was the sign that connected the symbol of the essence of the Universe to ancient history.

– What sort of ancient knowledge does the double cross reveal?

– It led me, for instance, to Hungarian runic writing, in which the symbol for ‘one’ is a double cross. It seems inconceivable that the most appropriate sign for 1 would be 3 signs! There must be a weighty reason for this. To represent the cosmic ‘One’, our ancestors picked the symbol of the unity of the cosmic trinity. The symbolic system of the

‘One’ has been with us since ancient history through to the people of Árpád, to our current national coat of arms and flag. The trinity of the ‘One’ and the unity of the trinity: the knowledge of the essence of the living Universe is the spiritual foundation of the Hungarian people.

– What signs indicate this?

– There are many examples, but I would highlight the realisation of the Russian archaeologist Igor Manzura, which is in line with my own endeavours to understand ancient history. During his research, Manzura concluded that the unified symbol system found in ancient artifacts invariably reflects the world view that determined the civilisation and social life of the people of a given age. As the symbol system of the essence of the Universe is no longer known, the symbol system

of the Trinity and the triple trinity, has, of course, escaped the attention of archaeologists. The symbolism discovered on archaeological artifacts unearthed along the Silk Road is most prevalent among the Hungarians and Székelys, the Scythians, the Avars, and the Huns, as well as in Mesopotamia, which is no coincidence. There, for instance, three trinity symbols are depicted on the trunk of the cosmic Tree of Life. The unity of the triple trinity exists precisely where life force flows upwards. The symbols of the Tree of Life, the triple trinity and the double cross are found among the peoples of the Silk Road, the Scythian-Hun-Hungarians, as well as in Mesopotamia and in China.

The author is a journalist

Unique among all nations, Eurasia possesses a shared ancient knowledge of the essence of the Universe.

EURASIA MAGAZINE ONLINE

HU ISSN 2939-8789

Published by Neumann Lapkiadó

és Kommunikációs Kft.

Publisher's Headquarters: 1117 Budapest, Hungary, Infopark sétány 1.

Responsible Publisher:

Levente Horváth, Ph.D., Managing Director

Editor-in-Chief: Levente Horváth, Ph.D.

Managing Editor: Mariann Őry, Péter Petán

Text Editor: Erika Koskocki

Editor: Loretta Tóth

Photo Editor: Róbert Hegedüs

Graphic Design and Layout: Alexandra Érsek-Csanádi, Anita Kónya

Eurasia Magazine Online Editorial Board

Members:

Ágnes Bernek, Ph.D., László Csicsmann, Ph.D., Norbert Csizmadia, Ph.D., Mózes Csoma, Ph.D., Prof. Zoltán Dövényi, Ph.D., Béla Háda, Ph.D., Prof. Imre Hamar, Ph.D., Prof. Judit Hidasi, Ph.D., Dr. Máté Ittzés, Ph.D., Péter Klemensits, Ph.D., Kristóf Lehmann, Ph.D., Csaba Moldicz, Ph.D., Prof. Erzsébet N. Rózsa, Ph.D., Borbála Obrusánszky, Ph.D., Prof. József Popp, Ph.D., Sándor P. Szabó, Ph.D., Prof. Zsolt Rostoványi, Ph.D., Gergely Salát, Ph.D., Péter Szatmári, Ph.D., István Szerdahelyi, Ph.D., Prof. István Szilágyi, Ph.D., Prof. István Tarrósy, Ph.D., Prof. István Tózsa Ph.D., Prof. László Vasa Ph.D., Zoltán Wilhelm, Ph.D., Alexandra Zoltai

China has the fastest train in the world. The bullet trains in Shanghai move at a speed of 460km/hr.

Copyright :

All rights of use of the databases of Eurasia Magazine Online are granted to the Neumann Lapkiadó és Kommunikációs Kft. The written material and photographs used on this website are protected by copyright. They may not be published, broadcast or transmitted in any form or by any means, or stored in whole or in part on a computer, whether in their original or transcribed form.

“Eurasia is the globe's central arena.”

Zbigniew Brzezinski