8 minute read
Climate Change
The Link Between Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events
Recently, we’ve seen a high frequency of devastating natural disasters. For instance, Hurricane Irma and Maria, the monsoon floods of Bangladesh, the Californian wildfires and mudslides and the so called ‘Bomb Cyclone’ over the east coast of the USA, that produced record low temperatures in the region. Whilst it is true that hurricane seasons are normal and floods and fire are part of nature’s cycle, it is also feasible that climate change is fueling more intense weather patterns and plays a part in triggering weather related disasters. It’s time to look at the evidence.
By Richard Forsyth
Even for those who believe in it and understand its significance, climate change is sometimes miscomprehended as a challenge we need to control in a future sense. The truth is that climate change is happening – it’s a process we are experiencing today. It stands to reason we should notice some changes in the weather.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), comprised of the world’s most well-regarded experts in environmental fields, released a press release way back in November 2014 confirming ‘that climate change is being registered around the world and warming of the climate system is unequivocal’. Thomas Stocker, Co-Chair of IPCC Working Group said: “Our assessment finds that the atmosphere and oceans have warmed, the amount of snow and ice has diminished, sea level has risen and the concentration of carbon dioxide has increased to a level unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.”
Only four years since that press release, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as of January 2018, reached an alarming 408 parts per million – that’s the highest in around 3.6 million years – since a period known as the middle Pilocene, which had concentrations of carbon dioxide over 400. Obviously, in that era, the problem was not manmade but it’s known that our industrial activities are accelerating warming at an alarming rate. As a result, it’s estimated that around 800 million people are now vulnerable to climate change impacts.
The IPCC predicted greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will likely increase land surface temperatures, leading to droughts. Such a change would also, they speculated, fuel intense cyclones with high wind speeds, create wetter Asian monsoons and significant mid-latitude storms. We could expect major floods, sea level rises and killer heat waves. Apart from the death, destruction and cost of extreme weather events, there would also be migration of populations escaping disaster.
Of course, some of those ‘future’ weather predictions reflect the daily news reports we see today. So, is climate change already at play with weather events and can we expect more intense weather as the norm?
More rain and more heat
It’s important to realise that global warming creates very volatile weather systems. A study published in Nature Climate Change in 2015, revealed that global warming in the last century has meant that extremes in heat that occurred once every 1,000 days, happen around five times more often. If we do manage to keep the global temperature limited to a 2 degrees C rise, which is an aim for many governments, we can still expect 60% more extreme rain events and 27 extremely hot days on average, in any given place on the planet.
If we carry on going beyond a 2 degree C global temperature rise, we can expect sustained, widespread, very dangerous weather related phenomena. The fact is, it’s getting hotter each year on average. According to data by NASA, 2017 was the second hottest year on record, without an El’ Niño – and average global temperatures show that the top 10 warmest years recorded have all occurred since 1998.
How climate change fuels extreme events
So far, the oceans are absorbing around 90% the world’s excess heat, hence, ocean temperatures have been rising consistently for the last three decades. When oceans absorb heat, they expand, causing sea
News reports on climate change effects in Europe are numerous. Here are a few examples of what is happening now and what will happen in the future because of global warming.
Ski resorts without snow
In 2015 and 2016 several ski resorts were lacking the one thing they needed for visitors, as snow was sparse to nonexistent. This might be a glimpse of things to come. Climate scientists have said that by 2099 there will 70 % less snow in the Alpine ski resorts.
Change in timings of floods
A study published in Science, described how climate change is shifting timings of European floods. Data on the timing of floods in Europe over the last 50 years has been analysed to suggest that warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods in northeastern Europe. Also, winter storms were delayed due to polar warming and caused later floods around the North Sea and the Mediterranean coast.
Wind destruction increases in UK
An analysis of data suggested that the UK will be at the mercy of fiercer storms and damaging wind due to climate change. Windstorm destruction will increase more than a third with a mere 1.5 degree C rise in temperature.
The temperature rises in France
Mega heatwaves are predicted for France because of climate change. The last one in 2003 killed 15,000 in France and 9,000 across Europe with temperatures over 44 degrees C. Researchers predict that future heatwaves will exceed 50 degrees C.
The south of Europe gets hit hard
The highest number of adverse impacts combined, in Europe, such as floods, droughts, storms and heatwaves will be in the south and southeastern parts according to scientists, where the high frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will cause havoc.
level rise – this is in conjunction with melting polar ice from global warming. Consider that many of the largest cities in the world are situated on coastlands or next to rivers with millions of inhabitants and important infrastructures. Cities like Shanghai, New York, Rio de Janeiro, Alexandria, Osaka and London would become submerged with a rise of just 3 degrees Celsius.
Look at cities such as Venice and Miami, that are losing to the encroaching sea level, to glimpse the challenges to come. Cities will also be increasingly prone to floods from storms. Global warming intensifies storms, which drives storm surges into coastal cities.
Ferocious storms
The storms are getting worse and that’s official. The global warming effect gives us an explanation to why. Storms feed off latent heat. The more heat that accumulates and gets sucked into a storm, the faster it churns.
Research with satellite altimeter data, carried out over two decades, discovered that hurricanes become more intense much faster today than they did 25 years ago – so storms reach the category three stage around nine hours faster than in the 80’s. Storms also last longer and have higher sustained wind speeds. There is additional evidence that extra water vapour in the atmosphere means that storms are wetter, which might be why the biggest storms produce 10 % more precipitation, so the downpours can be extreme, which in turn can cause flash floods and mudslides.
It’s not just rain either, there is an increase in snowstorms. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists, in the USA, looked over 120 years of data to find out there were twice as many extreme regional snowstorms in the years between 1961-2010, compared to 1900-1960.
If we do nothing to prevent an escalation of global warming and continue on the path we are on, we could accelerate toward an 8 degree rise in temperature by 2100. To put this in perspective, our children’s children could witness a four foot rise in sea level, ferocious hurricanes, prolonged droughts, large regions affected by desertification and there will be places on Earth that will simply, for the first time, be truly unlivable.
The latest target being touted by the UN, is to aim for a 3 degree C limit by 2100 – still a figure that, despite requiring a huge commitment from industry, politicians and consumers – would lead to our maps being redrawn. With a 3 degree C rise we can expect weather to be consistently extreme. Weather aligned with this temperature increase would threaten our crops, animals and eco systems, with devastating consequences for the environment and our food security.
To pinpoint a single weather event on climate change is something scientists are reluctant to debate although some of the media is less cautious. It is true that extreme weather events happen year to year as part of the Earth’s natural processes but when looking at trends, there is evidence that weather seems to be evolving new patterns and in line with global warming. We are regularly hearing the words ‘new record’ when talking about weather phenomena in recent years and that suggests a potential lack of stability in weather patterns. When you consider between 1980-2013, climate-related extreme events accounted for around 400 billion Euros of economic loss in EEA countries and over 85,000 deaths, the real costs of global warming become more alarming with every increased degree of heat. What is certain is that climate affects weather, so we should be prepared for our planet and its weather to change.
