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USA: Positive news for 2023 from market experts at GOAL Conference 2022
by Eurofish
There is positive news for 2023 for large segments of the world’s aquaculture industry, including shrimp, salmon, tilapia, and pangasius. Experts from Netherlands-based Rabobank presented their predictions for 2023 at the Global Seafood Alliance’s recent GOAL Conference 2022 in Seattle, including estimates of output trends in major producing countries and demand or market conditions in large consuming parts of the world. Their presentation at the GOAL Conference was based on a report from Rabobank’s RaboResearch branch, “What to Expect in the Aquaculture Industry in 2023,” available at https://research.rabobank.com/ far/en/sectors/animal-protein/ what-to-expect-in-the-aquaculture-industry-in-2023.html.
Tropical shrimp looks to be a big winner, especially in Ecuador where production in 2023 may grow by 30 in volume, an increase of 300,000 tonnes, on par with Thailand’s total annual production. Total Latin American output is expected to exceed 2 million tonnes. Total production in Asia, the world’s leading region led by China, saw a slight decline in 2022 but is expected to bounce back in 2023, with output exceeding 4 million tonnes. Overall, global shrimp supply is projected to grow by 4.2. “Normalise” is a market analysis codeword for “calm down”, and after a few volatile years, salmon producers in Norway and Chile will “normalise” salmon production in 2023 to historically lower growth rates, because markets need steady rather than fluctuating supplies. Thus, Norwegian output, which grew by 12 in 2021 before falling by 0.9 in
2022, will grow by 3.5 in 2023, closer to the long-run average growth rate. Chilean output fell by 8 in 2021 and 0.3 in 2022, but could grow by 2.5 in 2023, which again is closer to long-run trends.
Other important aquaculture species in global trade, including tilapia—with the highest production growth rates now seen in Latin America rather than Asia—and pangasius—still dominated by Asia— are also covered by the report.
Spain: CEPESCA thinks VAT on seafood should fall like the tax on diesel fuel
In most of Europe, the value added tax (VAT) on seafood is considerably lower than the average applied to consumer goods generally. The tax is zero in the UK and in EU member states Ireland and Malta. Elsewhere in the EU, the VAT on seafood in France, Germany, Hungary, and Portugal ranges from 5 to 6. In Spain, however, seafood is subject to the 10 VAT applied generally to non-basic foods. Besides being a basic food, the most emphasised reason that much of Europe gives seafood a lower VAT is, it’s an especially healthy protein. On the other hand, almost everywhere -- including Spain -- the taxes on fuel used by fishermen have been cut to help them deal with the economic turmoil running through Europe in recent years. This has helped the industry weather the effects of the pandemic, Brexit, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, among other international disasters.
Seafood consumers should get a financial break like the fishing industry does, says the Spanish Fisheries Confederation (CEPESCA). Household consumption of seafood in Spain has fallen by 25 in the last 14 years, the organisation reports, and a seafood tax that is double the average is a significant reason why. CEPESCA criticised the government for neglecting to lower VAT on seafood because the excessive tax drives consumers away from the healthy part of any balanced diet. The group noted seafood’s quality and nutritional properties, which give it a prominent place in the socalled Mediterranean and Atlantic “diets” that health experts around the world encourage. CEPESCA’s calculations indicate that reducing the VAT on seafood would cost Spain’s treasury less than EUR 500 million, which the group indicated might be completely offset by reduced government expenditures for citizens’ health problems caused by unwholesome diets.
The standard VAT rate in Spain is 21%, while the reduced rate of 10% is applied to all non-basic food. A super-reduced rate of 4% is applied to basic foods: bread, milk, eggs, cheese, fruit and vegetables, and cereals. Seafood is not considered a basic food.
