Romain Gerardin-Fresse, Ceo and Founder of GFK Conseils-Juridis

EUROPEAN BUSINESS MAGAZINE INTERVIEWS Romain Gerardin-Fresse (front cover image)

Ceo and Founder of GFK Conseils-Juridis about globalization and how his fi rm advises governments and multinational companies globally about strategy. GFK Conseils-Juridis has corporate clients in numerous countries throughout Europe, the US, and the Middle East, and today is known as a “real solutions maker“.

Today’s world is changing. Geopoliঞ cal developments are complex noঞ ons that have shaped the modern world. The last century has brought about a new paradigm; that of globalizaঞ on, and in parঞ cular through a technological advances. You are a pure product of globalizaঞ on, with a presence on the 4 corners of the globe. What is your take on this?

You are totally right. The term globalizaঞ on corresponds to the free movement of goods, capital, services, people, technology and informaঞ on. So, ye we are a pure product of globalizaঞ on! But to perfectly understand it, we have we need to do some socioeconomic history. The technological dimension of globalisation is undoubtedly able to demonstrate the impact on the evoluঞ on of internaঞ onal aff airs throughout history. Indeed, the emergence of new technologies has constantly influenced international relations and has brought about a new dimension to globalizaঞ on many ঞ mes before. And this is fascinaঞ ng. The installment of a universal time measure, such as the 1884 Greenwich meridian is a perfect example of this; sailing convenঞ ons became uniformized and everyone now referred to their own meridian in universal ঞ me. This is an evoluঞ on which is similar to a technological revoluঞ on, even though it is rather an intellectual one. A unanimous decision allowed for this revoluঞ on to apply to all naঞ on states. In a similar manner, the 1891 trans-border phone call between Paris and London revoluঞ onized the status quo. It is now possible to exchange informaঞ on in real ঞ me even from a distance of 500km, for example , place an order in a diff erent country without sending an emissary ahead of ঞ me. It was a major advance in technology, a new great step for the globalizaঞ on. Similarly, the facilitaঞ on of the movement of people and goods by air saw the light in 1903, with the fi rst successful fl ight iniঞ ated by the Wright brothers, which was followed in 1919 by the democraঞ saঞ on of trans-border air services. This innovaঞ on signifi cantly reduced the ঞ me taken for the transport of goods and workers and removed the inerঞ a caused by physical and geographical distance. A major advance? In the same way, the reaঞ on of the television in 1927 allowed for a true opening to the world and drove a different percepঞ on of geographically removed communities. This is the free circulaঞ on of ideas, of information and the discovery of new cultures. Subsequently, the invention of the microchip in 1959 and the ARPANET in 1969 brought about a new era, that of mulঞ media and digital technology, which in 2004 led to the creaঞ on of Facebook. Something that sঞ ll seemed surreal decades ago, and that played a role in the evoluঞ on of civil socieঞ es The technological revolution also touched the healthcare industry. Indeed, the discovery of penicillin by Alexander Fleming on the rd September 1928 transformed the history of medicine.The geopoliঞ cal context of England was not favourable at the ঞ me, and he le[ for the United States, where the American laboratories Merck, Pfi zer and Squibb began with his adventure. Production on an industrial scale allowed medicine to cure many diseases such as tuberculosis and syphilis, having a worldwide impact which is also fascinaঞ ng. More recently, containerizaঞ on, intermodal freight transport system using containers, started in the 1960s, reinforced globalizaঞ on. Using containers with standardized dimensions, has considerably contributed to the strengthening of internaঞ onal trade. Knowing and studying these past examples, one learns about the evoluঞ on of the globalizaঞ on and allows us to anঞ cipate and orient our current strategies intelligently.

Take the example of France. GFK Conseils is headquartered there, supports many business leaders, and mulঞ naঞ onals wishing to set up there. Would you say that

the country is well governed, and remains fully integrated in the process of globalizaঞ on?

The World Bank defi nes governance as “the way in which power is exercised in the management of a country’s economic and social resources for development”. Kemal Dervis, former Minister of Economy in Turkey, administrator of the United Naঞ ons Development Program (UNDP) and vice-president of the World Bank, wrote that good governance is essenঞ al for the growth of a country, because it “determines whether people deploy their talent in the pursuit of innovaঞ on, or in lobbying for poliঞ cal protecঞ on”. The 2019 Doing Business Full Report notes that France carried out certain reforms in 2017 and 2018, and notably cites those relaঞ ng to the digiঞ - zaঞ on of land and property registraঞ on systems. These are not the only reforms that have been carried out, but are likely to help facilitate procedures, thus attracting foreign investors to the naঞ onal territory. The modernizaঞ on of land and property registraঞ on was also the subject of a report submi‚ ed on November 12, 2018 by the Commission for Land and Property Registraঞ on Reforms. It is explained that “Land registration originates from a simple idea: the acquisiঞ on of a right to a building (property, mortgage ...) and is eff ecঞ ve when it is made public.” This process must be transparent, making it synonymous with good governance, according the defi niঞ on by the World Bank, which indicates that it is “the way in which power is exercised in the management of economic and social resources’. With technological globalizaঞ on, it is unthinkable that such a service would not become accessible online. The lack of modernity of such a service consঞ tuted a real obstacle and was not compaঞ ble with the modernity imposed by globalizaঞ on. For many years, the bureaucracy and inerঞ a of the French system was a real barrier to foreign direct investment (FDI), and greatly dissuaded investors.

These reforms are therefore essenঞ al for France to maintain its compeঞঞ ve posiঞ on in the context of globalizaঞ on, which depends in part on the “effectiveness of governments and the quality of policy development and the delivery of uঞ liঞ es ” as Kaufmann et al. said. However, the country sঞ ll has major reforms to carry out in this direcঞ on. Like any crisis which accentuates the diffi culঞ es of a country, the Covid19 crisis revealed what President MACRON himself described as “fl aws and inadequacies”, referring directly to the scandal which occurred with the supply of masks, indicaঞ ng that “lessons would be learned”. These “loopholes” are partly induced by a hyper-centralization of power from which France has suff ered for centuries, which the Decentralizaঞ on Law of 1981 began to address. Indeed, this law aimed to give more fl exibility to local communiঞ es. Likewise, the report I quoted to you above indicates that France has iniঞ ated reforms aimed at lowering its taxaঞ on. It is true that the creaঞ on of the CICE by the amended Finance Law of 2012 was a real relief for the companies that could benefi t from it, and was intended to reduce the labor cost of French companies - very high - compared to foreign companies. This measure was therefore intended to ensure that the public authoriঞ es, through a tax reducঞ on, bear the cost of compeঞঞ veness while maintaining the social benefi ts of employees. Extremely onerous for public policies (its cost is esঞ mated at 100 billion euros in total), the CICE was abolished on January 1, 2019 and replaced by a reducঞ on in social contribuঞ ons for employers. Since October 1, 2019, the general reducঞ on in employer contribuঞ ons applies to unemployment insurance contribuঞ ons. But this measure has its limits. If it has an impact on low-wage sectors and where the cost price is strongly impacted by labor costs, on the other hand, it is much less eff ecঞ ve in high added value sectors. Also, with progressive contribuঞ ons proportional to salary, employers might be tempted not to increase their employees. There is therefore a limit of these indicators. They only reason in the abstract, and do not take into account the perverse eff ects that may result.

GFK Conseils-Juridis has worked with many foreign governments.

Could you comment on this parঞ cular experience a bit more — how do you approach new clients like these, how do you operate and help them? What are the main challenges for the company when it has to navigate through diff erent poliঞ cs and internaঞ onal relaঞ ons challenges?

For the foreign governments in which we intervene, we are developing new governance strategies. Our greatest pride stems from certain texts that we have helped to dra[ , in order to bring out innovaঞ ve entrepreneurial or ecological protection schemes, which had not yet been iniঞ ated. I am thinking of a specifi c example, where we developed a tax system which was submi‚ ed to a vote at the Naঞ onal Assembly of the concerned country, to encourage the emergence of infrastructure, and was therefore of great public uঞ lity for projects in the country. It’s an accomplishment. For example, we are also responsible for promoঞ ng the creaঞ on of a free digital zone in Obock, in the Republic of Djibouঞ , and we are working with the Prime Minister on the establishment of banking insঞ tuঞ ons in this country which has joined the OECD. Generally speaking, a well-applied legal system that establishes and defends property rights, increases the a‚ racঞ veness of FDI (Foreign Direct Investments). Strong property rights, which off er protecঞ on against expropriaঞ on, encourage investment. Distribuঞ ng producঞ on factors more efficiently (land, labour, capital and business) as well as fi nancing start-ups and enabling them to enter the market and grow the economy, is our role in the governments we advise. Maintaining democracy, characterized by the separation of legislative, judiciary and executive powers ensures effective procurement through the rule of law.

GFK Conseils-Juridis also helps mulঞ naঞ onal companies with their strategies for internaঞ onal expansion. How do you fi nd the best opঞ on for each company and help them enter a new arena? Do they always trust the fi rm and agree with the prepared strategy?

Dunne and Schmidt said that free trade promotes peace and can create mutually beneficial economic partnerships for all states. And they are right. Transnaঞ onal cooperaঞ on can bring mutual benefi ts. First of all, we carry out an in-depth audit which is a ma‚ er of economic intelligence, to understand the corporate purpose of the company, its sector of activity, and its desire for expansion. I will not tell you how exactly we assess and esঞ mate the potenঞ al threats and opportuniঞ es of seম ng up a business in a given geographic area. But what I can tell you however, is that we pay particular attention to the development of international relaঞ ons and the orientaঞ on of public policies in the states concerned. States that have far-sighted poliঞ cal strategies and resilient institutions have, as Robinson and Acemoglu point out, be‚ er results in managing the forces of globalizaঞ on. The rise of what has been called the “compeঞঞ ve state”, adapted to meet the demands of globalizaঞ on, is embodied in countries with open, state-run market economies. It is the case of Singapore. Take the example of Djibouঞ , a country that I know well. The governement has undertaken many reforms since 2017, including the establishment of a central offi ce for business start-ups, the reducঞ on of regulatory fees , the

supervision of sale and tax administration, as well as easing access to credit, through a broadening the scope of assets which can be used a guarantees in a way that now let it include future assets as an extrinsic guarantee in and of itself. They are elements which encourage the FDI. An addiঞ onal element that strengthens confi dence in the country’s insঞ - tuঞ ons, is the establishment of a specialized division within the court with the sole purpose of resolving commercial cases. Adopঞ ng a new Code of Civil Procedure which regulates voluntary conciliaঞ on as well mediaঞ on procedures in cases of confl ict is something that further strengthens confi dence in the insঞ tuঞ ons. The definition of strict timeframes regarding legal proceedings and the strengthening of accessibility and parঞ cipaঞ on of creditors to resolve confl ictual situaঞ ons is highly valued by entrepreneurs for its added security. It makes the environment more attractive and more favourable for eventual expansion strategies abroad. The companies we advise follow our recommendaঞ ons, because they know that we integrate all paradigms, including the security of their assets, before giving our “green light” to their internaঞ onal expansion plan.

Being an eff ecঞ ve crisis-management company also means having strong collaborators and partners when it comes to law, taxaঞ on, communicaঞ on, and other important aspects. How do you fi nd the necessary partners in diff erent countries? Also, what is the secret of keeping strong relaঞ onships with them?

We have always put the utmost importance on being available and responsive, and we carry out constant monitoring in all of our acঞ vity sectors to be able to off er a cuম ng-edge service. This is the leitmoঞ f that we repeat to each of our collaborators. General administraঞ on, taxaঞ on, dispute resoluঞ on, handling of day-today aff airs are all tasks that must be accomplished with speed, effi ciency and confi denঞ ality. The collaborators - internal or external - on whom we rely are chosen with care and are part of the added value of our business model which allows us to provide “a high-level legal-fi nancial all-inclusive package”. The quality of the links created with private banks, large fi rms, infl uenঞ al groups and investment funds are all assets that strengthen our actions and our credibility. We have been able to diversify, and as you pointed out, do not limit ourselves solely to the legal aspects. In reality, we have become an operaঞ onal “Swiss Army knife” for our customers. The recogniঞ on of our values and our reputaঞ on has enabled us to forge solid links with people in the world of private banking, management funds, and with big names in lobbying. From Monaco to Luxembourg via London, Geneva or Hong Kong, our fi rm has negoঞ ated partnerships with historic and renowned fi nancial decision-making centers. These partnerships open the way to unprecedented opportuniঞ es for our clients, who are assured of benefiঞ ng from the best investment, a fi nely tailored development strategy for their assets, a high level of return and above all, the effi ciency that they are looking for. Ironically, we have even been called by these same banks and investment funds to advise on legal, legislaঞ ve or strategic aspects. This helps to forge privileged relaঞ onships and to maintain the excellence of our services.

To be the best player in the fi eld, always staying on top of current events and geopoliঞ cs is an absolute necessity. How does

GFK Conseils-Juridis manage to do that? Do you have certain tacঞ cs when it comes to immediate esঞ maঞ on of the new, unexpected situaঞ ons?

This is a very relevant remark. We carry out an exhausঞ ve watch, we keep ourselves constantly informed, we are in regular contact with infl uenঞ al members in “authorized circles”. Geopolitics is a variable in its own right in our profession. Anঞ cipaঞ ng and adapting our strategies in real ঞ me is an absolute necessity. Decisions, and posiঞ ons taken by governments, a[ er having been advised to do so by internaঞ onal organizaঞ ons can shape the world. I will give you a concrete example of transnaঞ onal cooperaঞ on in solving a major problem which has changed the landscape of economic relaঞ ons. Since May 2000, the World Diamond Council (WDC), the Civil Society Coaliঞ on (CSC), the Diamond Development Initiative (DDI) and the African Diamond Producers Associaঞ on

(ADPA), work together to address the issue of confl ict diamonds, also called “blood diamonds”. Rough diamond is arguably one of the highest value-to-weight commodiঞ es in the world. For example, the “Lesedi la Rona”, discovered in 2015 in Botswana, weighs 1,109 carats and was sold for 53 million dollars (45 million euros) to a Briঞ sh jeweler. For nearly 100 years, the extraction of these stones has allowed the rebels present in diff erent confl ict zones of Africa to fi nance their policy of destabilizaঞ on of the power in place, causing geopoliঞ cal repercussions on a global scale, which then leads to political instability, insecurity, famine, and more. The United Nations has therefore decided to curb this phenomenon by encouraging, the creaঞ on of a cerঞ - fi caঞ on process relaঞ ng to the origin of rough diamonds, which they called the Kimberley process. It aims to ban diamonds from confl ict zones.

This strategy worked rather well, and in zones where this was previously a major issue such as Sierra Leone, Angola, Liberia and the Democraঞ c Republic of Congo (DRC), things have improved significantly, and the situation has become more controllable. This is parঞ cularly truly in Angola, where blood diamonds served as funding for the rebel groups during the civil war. A serious brake was put on the access to funds through this process and helped calm the situaঞ on. Likewise, Sierra Leone has seen its legal exports increase 100-fold since the end of the war in 2002. Like any process, this system has its limits. The fi rst comes from the fact that there is no way to chemically trace a stone. Control relies on the full contribuঞ on of local actors, who are responsible for checking the legality and veracity of the informaঞ on and documents transmi‚ ed, from the mine to the diamonds’ departure for export. Ineffi cient controls in certain zones mean that some diamonds are still extracted from mines located in conflict zones and are smuggled into neighbouring countries, where a cerঞfi cate is issued to them, allowing to “whitewash” their origins. Corrupঞ on is also an issue, and fragilizes the process in Zimbabwe for example. When suspicions about compliance with the process in his mines were voiced, Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe threatened to withdraw from the Kimberley process altogether. Ian Similie, who parঞ cipated in establishing the Kimberley process said himself that the project had in away, failed. He states “ The Congolese government has no idea of the provenance of 40% of its diamonds. They could be coming from Angola, Zimbabwe or even Mars”. The limitaঞ on of this kind of “common interest” agreement is that it must be respected by all who have adopted it, in order for it to be eff ecঞ ve.

For example, if we consider that the United States is the largest importer of diamonds in the world, one could think that it would be enough for them to demand strict compliance with the process, and then follow it up with inspecঞ ons that would penalize countries that do not respect it. I gave you this example because it covers - like diamonds! - several facets; What was authorized becomes prohibited on the infl uence of international organizations, which entails a need to adapt its method. But as always, some manage to defy the prohibiঞ on by circumvenঞ ng it. However, penalঞ es for negligence can be significant. We must therefore be vigilant. In addition, the beneficial effect is the investment opportunity off ered by countries that benefit from this new regulation. Finally, be careful, because the process has its limits, and it is necessary to analyze the whole so as not to overreact posiঞ vely, which could have an opposite eff ect on the recommended investments. This is the role of GFK Conseils-Juridis holds: understanding geopolitical developments, to optimize the results and minimize the impact on clients, depending on the situaঞ ons.

The outbreak of Covid-19 has impacted nearly every industry out there. What about the consulঞ ng and crisis management industries? In your opinion, can this outbreak bring some new, unexpected challenges that the

GFK Conseils-Juridis has not faced before?

Émile de Girardin, a 19th century French poliঞ cian, said that “To govern is to foresee; and to foresee nothing is to run to ruin ”. Eff ecঞ ve crisis management is considerably improved if you anঞ cipate various situations and outcomes ahead of ঞ me. This is where constant legal, poliঞ cal and economic monitoring is parঞ cularly useful and eff ecঞ ve, saving ঞ me and effi ciency on the long term. Let’s take the example of certain large groups that we have supported during this crisis: we have been in contact with suppliers in order to temporarily suspend fi nancial obligaঞ ons under Force Majeure, solved the issues regarding salaries in accordance with relevant legislaঞ ve texts, and established clear communicaঞ on pathways for customers. Simultaneously, we reorganized the structure of work, rethought applicable schemes, whilst also strengthening their cash fl ow. A crisis can cause major changes if parameters aren’t properly controlled. The key is to maintain composure and to carefully plan each step of the strategy: secure assets, contain the damage and prepare for the a[ ermath. Defi ning the direcঞ on of the strategy to be adopted is essenঞ al, as is considering the specifi ciঞ es of crisis itself, and of the customer’s profi le. I don’t think we will necessarily face different challenges than those we have encountered so far. Crisis management is constantly evolving in the way it addresses problems, but the pa‚ ern remains the same; counter the immediate consequences, resolve, repair, and prevent in order to preserve. But I do think that this crisis will perhaps lead to the emergence of new pa‚ erns, driving a diff erent approach to management, producঞ on and consumpঞ on, which will allow for similar situaঞ ons in the future to be avoided. And it is, by the way, absolutely necessary. The planet cannot support the current modes of production, and an alternative mode must be developed. If at fi rst glance it is a ma‚ er of a responsibility towards humanity, an unstoppable fi nancial logic is added to it; There will come a day when producing according to our current methods will become much more expensive than producing with the help or with renewable and clean energy. If even Saudi Arabia, home to one of the world’s largest oil reserves, seeks to produce most of its electricity from renewables and nuclear power by 2040, that’s fi ne. that the stakes are high and that the argument can prosper. There is a plethora of studies showing the cost of climate change; A CitiGroup study found that rampant warming could reduce global gross domestic product by up to $ 72 trillion, while another report by the journal Nature found it could reduce average global incomes by almost A quarter. A four degree Celsius jump would also hit sectors like agriculture, real estate, ঞ mber and emerging market equiঞ es. All in all, it would create a toxic environment for businesses large and small. A report from the University of Cambridge suggests that equity por olios could drop as much as 45% as climate fears spill over into global markets. I think this “ this new order of things” should be seen as a real opportunity. An IFC report, for example, found that Eastern Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa could support up to $ 1 trillion in investments related to the climate by 2020. Renewable energies are not the only climate-related sector poised for growth. Businesses can fi nd opportunities in green building and help ciঞ es prepare for climate change. By 2050, more than 6 billion people will live in urban areas, creaঞ ng a pressing need for a mulঞ tude of infrastructure services, such as water and sanitaঞ on. In addiঞ on, 400 million homes are expected to be built by 2020, a potenঞ al boon for construcঞ on companies that can incorporate green technology into their construcঞ ons. A recent study that looked at a sample of 1,700 large internaঞ onal companies found that the money they invest in reducing greenhouse gas emissions has an internal rate of return of 27%, demonstrating the great potential related to it.

As an expert in internaঞ onal relaঞ ons, how do you consider things to have evolved since 1990?

With end of the Cold War, and with the collapse of the Soviet bloc in 1991, ended 46 years of a bipolar world, where the established order was a division into two blocs with the United States on one side and the USSR on the other. Since that period, three economic spaces have gradually been shaped. The first is a capitalistic and open space, mainly Western. The second is

a socialist and closed space, and the last is a “third world economic order”, halfway between the two other precepts. As this change took place, globalizaঞ on became the major concern of the United States. This concern was not unfounded. President Bill Clinton had realized that there was a serious connecঞ on between market expansion and promoting democracy. Theory stated that globalization would make the world more prosperous, but also more stable, freer and more liberal. Since then, America’s so[ power has grown considerably. In the 2000s, the US was sঞ ll the most powerful military power in the world and the “American style” was also becoming an increasingly a‚ racঞ ve benchmark to reach. However, realists like Christopher Layne were convinced that

such homogeneity could only be temporary, and events proved him right. September 11th, 2001 ended America’s sense of untouchability. Unprecedented in history, and of a psychologically traumaঞ c scale, the terrorist a‚ ack led by al-Qaeda ushered a shi[ in US poliঞ cs. The Republican President Georges W. BUSH hasঞ ly decided to launch a “war against terrorism”, with ill-defined outlines. This caused a new “evil” to emerge in the eyes of Americans: Iraq, Iran and North Korea. Even if the campaign in Afghanistan had been unanimously approved, the invasion of Iraq in 2003 as a response to alleged possession of weapons of mass destrucঞ on - received a mixed a reacঞ on by the internaঞ onal community and caused disagreements within the European Union. On March 18, 2003, Jacques Chirac, the French President, declares that “Iraq does not represent an immediate threat to jusঞ fy a war. To privilege force over law, would be taking a heavy responsibility.” This started the decline of American soft-power, which worsened with the fi nancial crisis of 2008 which had global repercussions and shook up exisঞ ng pa‚ erns. Even if a[ er the 2008’s crisis the mentaliঞ es have not really changed, the cauঞ ous behaviours gained ground. Yet, the importance of the US is always economically phenomenal at the worldwide scale. For example, when US consumers began to spend less and save more, global growth fell dramaঞ cally, demonstraঞ ng the importance of the US in the world economy. In the 1990s, the fall of the Berlin Wall and the disappearance of the Communist party also raised quesঞ ons about the need bring a new dimension to the European project. The Dublin European Council of June 1990 set up two Intergovernmental Conferences, one on the “Economic and Monetary Union”, the other on a “Poliঞ cal Union”. A year later, on December 9th and 10 th of 1991, the Maastricht European Council was held. After more than thirty hours of negotiations, on the night of December 10 to 11, 1991, twelve countries managed to agree on a treaty establishing a new entity, “The European Union” (EU). Going beyond the European Community’s iniঞ al objecঞ ve of achieving a common market, the EU had a political vocaঞ on. The Treaty of the European Union was therefore signed on February 7, 1992. The European Union is based on three “pillars”: • the fi rst pillar, from of the European Community (which replaces the EEC), is made up of the integrated policies of the existing

Communiঞ es, and has extensive supranaঞ onal powers; • the second pillar lays the foundaঞ ons for a common foreign and security policy (CFSP) • the third pillar relates to cooperaঞ on in jusঞ ce and home aff airs (JHA).

The European Economic Community (EEC) loses its economic connotaঞ on and becomes the European Community (EC). This modification implies a change of overall perspecঞ ve, including the ability to move and reside freely within the countries of the European Union. Later, in 2009 during the Treaty of Lisbon, this was pushed further, addressing subjects such as immigraঞ on, criminal law and police cooperaঞ on. The E.U has since then conঞ nued to integrate new countries. This created some tension, especially when the E.U began to integrate Romania and Bulgaria, whilst talks with Turkey were at a very advanced stage. These disagreements, as well as the 2008 crisis, encouraged the rise of naঞ onalism and Euroscepঞ cism. These behaviours led to Brexit. The fact that Boris Johnson, a notorious Euroscepঞ c, became Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, says a lot about the evoluঞ on of the percepঞ on of the European Union since the 2010s. I remember that on the front page of the newspaper Liberaঞ on on January 2020, the writer and philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy has wri‚ en “Europe is in danger”. Before him, one year sooner, Mario Vargas Llosa, Nobel Prize for Literature, stated in The Express “’Naঞ onalism can destroy Europe”. However, the EU remains of center of the most compeঞঞ ve economies in the world (6 out of the top 10 in the world), and the home of several world-class companies (30 out of the top 100 in the world). Whilst this is all going on, a new power is rising: China. China has become the second largest economy in the world and is expected to become the largest in terms of GDP at some point in the 21st century. Its method is clear: besides undergoing important economic reforms, it attracts foreign capital while exporঞ ng increasing quanঞঞ es of goods to the enormous markets of the West. In 2011, the Asian Development Bank predicted that if Asian economies could sustain growth for another 40 years, adapt to the global economic

and technological landscape, and continue to create comparative advantage, Asia would not only play a larger role in the global economy, but it would no longer be home to poor countries. This is fascinaঞ ng to know that actually, chinese manufacturing workers now earn more than their Brazilian, Argenঞ nian and Mexican colleagues, and have a wage which reaches half that of a Portuguese worker ($ 4.50 / hour). The Financial Time exposed in 2017 that between 2005 and 2016, the average hourly wage of a Chinese manufacturing worker rose from $1.2 to $3.6, an increase of 300%. However, China must avoid Thucydides’ trap, and is well aware of it. It is quietly developing important diplomaঞ c relaঞ ons with many countries in Africa and South America, and is establishing, in its own way, a Chinese so[ power. Thus, it can be asked whether the U.S and “the European empire”, do not risk gradually fading away, in favour of Chinese dominaঞ on.