Project Summary SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village is the latest offering in the Evangeline Luxury Condominium Collection. Evangeline Gouletas has been involved in the development of over 120 luxury condominium developments throughout 40 regional markets in the United States. The Brickell area is the epicenter of Miami as residents enjoy proximity to the prestigious Brickell Financial District, home to 120 domestic and international financial institutions, the American Airlines Arena, the Adrienne Arscht Center for the Performing Arts, five-star quality hotels (the Four Seasons, Conrad Miami, Mandarin Oriental, and two Ritz Carlton’s), world-famous shopping malls including the Village at Merrick Park, Key Biscayne, historic Coral Gables and Coconut Grove, and the Miami International Airport and Seaport. Project Design and Amenities Upon arrival at SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village, residents and guests will enter through a decorative ornamental brass wrought iron door creating a feeling of entering a classic yet timeless Mediterranean palazzo ready to deliver a completely unique and privileged lifestyle experience. The intricately designed lobby emanates a transitional Italian elegance with three-dimensional Italian marble flooring, semi-circular marble fluted columns, Venetian-stucco clad walls, and designer Versace furniture. The lobby will also feature an opulent Swarovski jewel-quality chandelier as its signature design piece. Superior building amenities commence on the 11th floor, with 14 foot ceiling heights, and include a state-of-the-art fitness center, large club room with kitchen and built-in bar, and a 21-seat home theater with surround-sound ideal for hosting Academy Awards or Super Bowl parties. The recreation deck’s amenities will appeal to a wide range of preferences with an exuberant mosaic swimming pool, an elaborate hydrotherapy water feature, cascading water fountains, a calming meditation pavilion, cozy gazebos, luxury private cabanas and barbecue facilities with kitchen amenities and granite countertops for more casual entertainment. The recreation deck features extravagant paving patterns and lavish landscape materials and finishes. Porcelain and tumbled stone mosaic tiles are used in a pattern very reminiscent of exterior spaces in the finest Italian homes. Majestic date palms and lush, flowering trees will provide a stunning visual backdrop for each activity area. 800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
When residents step onto the recreation deck of SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village, they will feel like celebrities, transported to a magical resort-style setting overlooking a vibrant Mediterranean village and the stunning Miami Skyline. 11th Floor residences will feature 14 foot ceiling heights, with 10 foot ceiling heights in penthouse residences and 9 foot ceiling heights in the classic residences. All residences will feature Condo’s of the Future™ technology incorporating smart building technology along with premiere interactive software design and networking providing residents with the utmost in residential services all with the touch of a button. Through a wireless touch-screen panel residents are able to utilize the automated car valet, access security cameras around the property, review and communicate various condominium management functions and schedule spa or restaurant reservations as well as control all of the interior electronic functions. With attractively priced residences ranging from $254,000 to $3,000,000 for duplex penthouses, the timeless appeal of SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village makes this a luxury lifestyle choice that will transcend all generations and cultures. The Shops at Mary Brickell Village is a major amenity of our development, an investment in building and tenant finishes of over $300,000,000 that all of us can enjoy. The developer / owner is Ivanhoe Cambridge, headquartered in Montreal, Canada. Ivanhoe Cambridge is an international, pre-eminent owner, developer of high-quality super-sized regional lifestyle shopping centers, with locations in Canada, the United States, Asia and Europe. For more information on Ivanhoe Cambridge, please visit their website at www.ivanhoecambridge.com, and www.marybrickellvillage.com. The Shops at Mary Brickell Village consists of over 52 tenants occupying 200,000 square feet of open air Mediterranean style retail, including restaurants, boutiques, services and much more, surrounded by cascading waterfalls, fountains and beautiful gardens. This is truly Southern Europe transplanted to Miami. The Shops at Mary Brickell Village has become the epicenter of the most prestigious Brickell area of Miami. Brickell is known as "Millionaire’s Row" composed of five 5 star quality hotels and the most exclusive residential and office addresses in South Florida. The retail tenants include, Publix Gourmet Market and LA Fitness Signature Club. The restaurants include PF Chang’s, Oceanaire Seafood Room, Grimpa’s Brazilian Steakhouse, Perricone’s Market, Blue Martini; a vibrant and energetic cocktail lounge with appetizers, Rosa Mexicano; gourmet Mexican cuisine, Starbuck’s Coffee, Abokado; Japanese cuisine, Kuva; gourmet Cuban cuisine, 800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
Lolita, continental cuisine with a 2nd floor outdoor terrace overlooking the Village, and Roma Gelato; fine organic gelato, to name just a few. They are all operating at unprecedented levels and it is normal to have significant waiting lines at all hours of the day and night. The retail shops and offices include: Skyline Realty International, our 3rd brokerage office, Regions Bank, FedEx Office, Green-Grass, fine women's clothing boutique, dry cleaners, several lingerie and jewelry shops, beauty salons and many more. The Shops at Mary Brickell Village is exciting and vibrant; it is “THE PLACE TO BE”. SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village is a unique, one of a kind development. x x x
We have the right team, great architecture and interior design and superior amenities and finishes We have the best General Contractor who has proven the ability to deliver a flawless building We have a premier location-“in The Shops at Mary Brickell Village”
800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
DEVELOPMENT TEAM John Moriarty & Associates of Florida JMAF, our general contracting and construction management company specializes in luxury hi-rise residential buildings, commercial office buildings and mixed-use projects. JMAF has been in the South Florida market since 1990 and has successfully completed in excess of one billion dollars of new construction over the past 5 years. Working diligently with developers and their design teams in both the preconstruction and construction stages, JMAF ensures that the integrity of design and the construction budget are achieved. www.jmaf.net Wolfberg Alvarez & Partners, our Project Architect, has been an award winning architectural firm headquartered in Miami for over 30 years. They have been selected for design excellence over 20 times during their history, garnering recognition from such prestigious organizations as the American Institute of Architects with the “Award for Excellence” and the American Institute of Architects Design Excellence Award. Please visit their web site at www.wolfbergalvarez.com. Witkin Hults Design Group, our designer for the award winning recreation deck. They are the leading designer for luxury residential recreation decks and won the Builders Association of South Florida’s Gold Award for Florida Outdoor Life Styles for the unique design of the SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village 40,000 square foot Oasis which recently received a Florida’s Best Award from the Florida Homebuilder’s Association. Their website is www.witkindesign.com. Howard Design Group, our designer of the jewel box lobby and the 11th floor amenities and all the common areas. Jeff Howard is one of the most widely known and respected interior designers, with projects such as the Ritz Carlton Hotel and the Ritz Carlton Condominiums, both in Coconut Grove and the South Beach Ritz Carlton Hotel. His firm was rated the “#1 Interior Design Firm” by Interior Design Magazine and was rated “Top 100 Design Visionaries” by Florida International Magazine.
800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
MANAGEMENT TEAM
Evangeline Gouletas President & General Partner Evangeline Gouletas is one of the most successful developers in the country as she continues her commitment to offering top quality lifestyle in her residential developments. With over $5 billion in luxury condominium sales and more than 30,000 condominiums developed in more than 40 markets throughout the country, the Evangeline name is synonymous with prestigious addresses throughout the United States. SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village is the crown jewel of her development portfolio and the latest offering in the prestigious “Evangeline Signature Luxury Condominium Collection. ” Hugh Wiedman Project Manager Hugh Wiedman has over 30 years of senior level experience in real estate acquisitions and development in the South Florida market. He is responsible for the smooth and efficient operation of all aspects of the organization and for designing, improving and implementing systems and policies. Mr. Wiedman manages the business relationships of the company as the Project Manager for SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village, where his responsibilities include the coordination of marketing, sales, construction, financing, accounting and administration. Isos Y. Stamelos-Monroe Vice President of Sales Isos Y. Stamelos-Monroe leads the sales efforts for SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village. With over 10 years of experience in the real estate market, Mr. Stamelos-Monroe possesses great strength in his ability to creatively structure transactions. As Director of Acquisitions for 4 years at Skyline Equities Realty, Mr. Stamelos-Monroe is a licensed Florida Real Estate Broker and is wellequipped with the knowledge, experience and drive to lead the sales efforts of SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village.
800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
Stylianos G. Vayanos, Ph.D., Ph.D., M.B.A. Vice President of Public Relations & International Marketing Dr. Vayanos spearheads the executive team ’s international marketing & public relations efforts, utilizing his international experience at strategically establishing business alliances and penetrating new markets. He is in charge of corporate communications, advertising, branding, special events, community relations and corporate social responsibility initiatives. He is a licensed Florida Real Estate Broker and has been active in the real estate industry in the US and the European Union for over 15 years in all aspects of the business, including brokerage, development and investment. Mitzue K. Stockdale Marketing Coordinator Ms. Stockdale coordinates the Skyline executive team ’s marketing efforts, utilizing her experience in directing, implementing and managing simultaneous marketing campaigns for multiple real estate projects, both domestic and international. Her responsibilities include advertising, branding, special events, Sales Center design, Common Area design, public relations and media management for Skyline on a national and international platform. Ms. Stockdale has been active in the real estate industry in the US since 1998. Michael Bibr Vice President of Business Development As Director of Business Development Mr. Bibr overseas the Contract Administration Department and conducts market research analysis. He has been with Skyline since 2002 when he worked as a leasing director for Skyline Century of Progress, a 300-unit luxury rental high-rise residences in downtown Chicago. He has also managed all commercial assets holdings for the company including Lake Point Tower Renaissance Plaza. Mr. Bibr is the company ’s expert in green building development and efficiency expert and assists the Acquisition Department in conducting its pro forma runs and analysis.
800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
Orlando Carrillo Director of Construction Mr. Carrillo is the Director of Construction for SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village. With more than twenty years in the construction industry and twelve years of experience in South Florida, Mr. Carrillo understands what projects have the required elements of success. He has extensive experience handling all aspects of development, construction management, planning and architecture. Mr. Carrillo has worked with several prestigious companies in Miami including Siddiq Khan & Associates, Inc., Fullerton Diaz Architects, Inc., Forbes Construction & Development / Forbes Architects, Robert M. Swedroe, and Nichols Brosch Sandoval & Associates.
800 Brickell Avenue, Suite 201, Miami, FL 33131 egouletas@skylineequities.com | skypalacemiami.com | 786.470.3245 D | 305.285.7272 M
Infinity Axis
500 Brickell
Espirito Santo Vue
Brickell on the River I&II
1060
Plaza Sail
Epic Icon
Carbonell Asia
Emerald
Jade
Club Solaris
Brickell
Isola
Brickell Key
SkyPalace at Mary Brickell Village Aerial East View
Mary Brickell Village
Residential Closings and Occupancy Study: March 2010 Update Downtown Development Authority District and Adjacent Areas of Influence Prepared for:
MARCH 2010
A Professional Strategic Alliance
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TABLE OF CONTENTS I.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ..................................................................................................................................... 2 SCOPE OF STUDY .................................................................................................................................................... 2 METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................................................................................... 2 MAJOR FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................................... 4
II.
CLOSING DATA AND ANALYSIS ...................................................................................................................... 6
III. OCCUPANCY STATUS AND PROFILE ........................................................................................................... 11 IV. DOWNTOWN MIAMI AREA RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS ............................................................. 13 RESIDENTIAL LEASING VELOCITY AND RENTAL RATE TRENDS ............................................................ 13 RESIDENTIAL SALES VELOCITY ....................................................................................................................... 13 V. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK ......................................................................................................................... 16 APPENDIX ...................................................................................................................................................................... 18 LIST OF EXHIBITS EXHIBIT I.1 STUDY AREA MAP ................................................................................................................................ 3 EXHIBIT I.2 NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES AND OCCUPANCY TREND ............................................................ 4 EXHIBIT II.1 PROJECT COMPOSITION – INVENTORY AND STUDY SCOPE .................................................... 6 EXHIBIT II.2 CLOSED (SOLD) VS. UNSOLD INVENTORY IN COMPLETED NEW BUILDINGS ..................... 7 EXHIBIT II.3 UNIT CLOSING STATUS BY YEAR OF BUILDING COMPLETION .............................................. 7 EXHIBIT II.4 COMPLETED NEW CONDOMINIUMS BY SUB-AREA ................................................................... 8 EXHIBIT II.5 TOTAL VS. CLOSED NEW CONDOMINIUMS BY SUBAREA ........................................................ 8 EXHIBIT II.6 DISTRIBUTION OF BUILT/UNSOLD INVENTORY ......................................................................... 9 EXHIBIT II.7 UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION BY SUBAREA-2009 COMPLETIONS ....................................... 9 EXHIBIT II.8 AVERAGE UNIT SALES PRICES – NEW CONDOMINIUMS ........................................................ 10 EXHIBIT II.9 AVERAGE SALES PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT – NEW CONDOMINIUMS ................................ 10 EXHIBIT III.1 OCCUPANCY STATUS – NEW CONDOMINIUMS AND RENTAL BUILDINGS ....................... 11 EXHIBIT III.2 OWNER-RENTER OCCUPANT MIX IN NEW CONDOMINIUM BUILDINGS ........................... 12 EXHIBIT III.3 OCCUPIED VS. UNITS SOLD (CLOSED) BY SUBAREA .............................................................. 12 EXHIBIT IV.1 CONDOMINIUM SALES AND LEASING TRENDS ....................................................................... 13 EXHIBIT IV.2 AVERAGE RENTAL RATE TRENDS .............................................................................................. 14 EXHIBIT IV.3 MONTHLY CONDOMINIUM SALES TREND ................................................................................ 14 EXHIBIT IV.4 MONTHLY CONDOMINIUM SALES PROFILE ............................................................................. 15 APPENDIX 1 – BUILDING LIST................................................................................................................................ 19
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report is an update of the Residential Closings and Occupancy Study published in June 2009, commissioned by the City of Miami Downtown Development Authority (DDA). The original study and this update present independent professional research and analysis prepared by the Goodkin Consulting - Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC Strategic Alliance (Goodkin/Focus). This section presents a summary of key findings and trends supported by data and analyses presented in the report. SCOPE OF STUDY While this update continues to focus primarily on the closing and occupancy status of recent/new condominium and multifamily projects completed after 2003 in the Downtown Miami Study Area, expanded closings analysis has been included which encompasses resale of new and old residential units (hereby referred to as resale) as well as the closing of new residential units, in order to provide a broader and more complete perspective on the downtown area residential market. The geographic scope of the study encompasses the DDA District and adjacent areas of influence (see Map Exhibit I.1). As illustrated by the map, the Downtown Study Area includes the area generally bounded by State Road 195 (Julia Tuttle Causeway) on the north, Interstate 95 and US Highway 1 extension on the west, and SW 26 Road/Rickenbacker Causeway on the South, and Biscayne Bay on the east. Eighty-five new condominium and multifamily rental buildings in the Downtown Study Area with 50 or more units completed and open or planned to open in the foreseeable future were specifically identified and researched within the framework of this study. METHODOLOGY The methodology employed in compiling information on closed unit sales in identified study area condominium projects included direct field research, compilation of public records maintained by the Miami-Dade County Appraiser and County Clerk, along with other third party data services as deemed appropriate. Estimated occupancy status and occupant profiles are based on a combination of direct survey research and public record analysis. Goodkin/Focus survey techniques included telephone, email and physical site visits.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Miami DDA
2
STUDY AREA
EXHIBIT I.1 STUDY AREA MAP
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
3
MAJOR FINDINGS Major findings based on recorded closings in new condominium buildings through December 31, 2009 and survey of occupancy in new condominiums as of February 2010 are summarized in Exhibit I.2 below. As shown, first-time sales of new units amounted to 68% of total units in completed new buildings compared to 62% reported in the initial study last year. Occupancy in new condominium buildings including owners and renters climbed 12 percentage points from 62% to 74% of completed units.
RECORDED SALES AND OCCUPANCY TREND NEW CONDOMINIUMS â&#x20AC;&#x201C; DOWNTOWN MIAMI AREA ,-./01 23-0/
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EXHIBIT I.2 NEW CONDOMINIUM SALES AND OCCUPANCY TREND
Completed buildings studied include 75 condominium buildings representing a total of 22,079 units. The active pipeline of new condominium inventory expected to be brought on line and begin closing sales in the downtown area in the near-term includes two buildings representing a total of 876 units.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Miami DDA
4
MAJOR FINDINGS (Continued) The Brickell area accounts for the largest concentration of new condominium buildings/units in the downtown study area, representing about 10,400 units and nearly 50% of all new residential condominium units in the study area. The next largest sub-markets within the downtown study area are the Central Business District (CBD) with 22% of the total completed inventory in the downtown study area and the Wynwood/Edgewater area representing 16% of the downtown total. Closed sales recorded in new downtown area condominiums through December 2009 were over 15,000 units or about 68% of the 22,079 total residential condominium units in the 75 completed condominium buildings included in this market update. x
Analysis of closed units by year of building completion shows that approximately 98% of units in buildings completed through 2006 have been sold. Approximately 81% of units completed in 2007 have been closed while about 43% of units completed in 2008 and 2009 have been closed to date.
x
Approximately 64% of total sales or on average about 150 sales per month were in new buildings in 2009.
x
Average monthly residential leasing velocity in the downtown area during the past twelve months averaged 345 units per month.
x
Renters account for approximately 52% of occupied units in completed condominiums, down from 53% estimated in the May 2009 survey.
x
Average monthly residential sales in the Downtown Miami Area during the fourth quarter of 2009 reached over 350 units, a 200%+ increase over total sales volume during the same period in 2008.
x
A combined total of 876 units, located in two projects in the CBD and Wynwood/Edgewater areas, constitute the active pipeline of new condominiums expected to begin closing in the near future.
x
The unsold inventory of units in new or recently completed condominium buildings in the downtown area amounts to just over 7,000 units down from over 8,000 seven months earlier.
x
Of the 7,010 unsold units in new and recently completed condominiums included in this study, over 3,500 (51%) are located in the Brickell area, approximately 1,600 (23%) are in the CBD, with the balance of downtown area new condominium inventory being fairly evenly distributed among the remaining sub-areas.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Miami DDA
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II. CLOSING DATA AND ANALYSIS This section presents a graphic summary of updated downtown area closing data and analysis. Completed buildings as of this update include 75 condominium buildings with a total of 22,079 units, and 8 rental apartment buildings containing a total of 1,189 units. Two condominium buildings containing a total of 876 units (see appendix) are substantially completed and considered to represent active pipeline. The status and potential completion of several other buildings containing a combined total of less than 300 units that are partially built, but have had construction subsequently stopped or otherwise delayed indefinitely, are considered highly uncertain due to current market, financing and general economic conditions and, therefore, are not considered as ‘active’ pipeline inventory.
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EXHIBIT II.1 PROJECT COMPOSITION – INVENTORY AND STUDY SCOPE
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
6
CONDO UNIT SALES STATUS -SOLD (CLOSED)/UNSOLD COMPLETED NEW CONDOMINIUM BUILDINGS TOTAL 22,079 ,J42KD (*U'!+ !$#
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EXHIBIT II.3 UNIT CLOSING STATUS BY YEAR OF BUILDING COMPLETION NOTE: Opening dates for selected buildings were revised for consistency to reflect date of initial closing resulting in minor shifts in yearly totals from the original study.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
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COMPLETED NEW CONDOMINIUM BUILDINGS/UNITS BY SUB-AREA SUB AREAS BUILDINGS UNITS % Units BRICKELL WEST BRICKELL SOUTH BRICKELL CBD MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT PARK WEST WYNWOOD/EDGEWATER TOTAL
25 4 3 13 6 6 18 75
8,637 1,034 731 4,879 1,449 1,886 3,463 22,079
39% 5% 3% 22% 7% 9% 16% 100%
Source: DDA; Miami-Dade Co. Public Records; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC. EXHIBIT II.4 COMPLETED NEW CONDOMINIUMS BY SUB-AREA
TOTAL VS. SOLD (CLOSED) NEW CONDOMINIUMS BY SUBAREA SUB AREAS BRICKELL WEST BRICKELL SOUTH BRICKELL CBD MEDIA & ENTERTAINMENT PARK WEST WYNWOOD/EDGEWATER TOTAL
TOTAL CLOSED PERCENT UNITS UNITS CLOSED 8,637 1,034 731 4,879 1,449 1,886 3,463 22,079
5,209 916 731 3,266 949 1,349 2,649 15,069
60% 89% 100% 67% 65% 72% 76% 68%
Source: DDA; Miami-Dade Co. Public Records; Focus Real Estate Advisors, LLC. EXHIBIT II.5 TOTAL VS. CLOSED NEW CONDOMINIUMS BY SUBAREA
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
8
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Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
9
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Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
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III. OCCUPANCY STATUS AND PROFILE This section presents a summary of the occupancy status of new buildings in the downtown study area and a profile of occupants. Occupant categories defined for the purpose of this study include full-time resident owner occupants; part-time/second home owner occupants; and renters. Renters occupy both investor-owned units and unsold units offered for rent by project builder-owners.
OCCUPANCY STATUS - COMPLETED NEW CONDOMINIUMS
TOTAL 22,079
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EXHIBIT III.1 OCCUPANCY STATUS – NEW CONDOMINIUMS AND RENTAL BUILDINGS
The occupancy mix in completed new condominiums includes 48% owners and 52% renters as illustrated in Exhibit III.2 on the following page. Exhibit III.3 shows the ratio of sold units to occupied units by subarea in the downtown Miami area. In several of subareas occupied units exceed the number of closed sales reflecting rental of unsold units by the developer.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
11
OCCUPANCY MIX IN COMPLETED CONDOMINIUMS OWNERS vs. RENTERS TOTAL 16,415
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EXHIBIT III.2 OWNER-RENTER OCCUPANT MIX IN NEW CONDOMINIUM BUILDINGS
OCCUPIED AND CLOSED SALES RATIO COMPARISON BY SUBAREA '#
('#
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EXHIBIT III.3 OCCUPIED VS. UNITS SOLD (CLOSED) BY SUBAREA
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
12
IV. DOWNTOWN MIAMI AREA RESIDENTIAL MARKET TRENDS RESIDENTIAL LEASING VELOCITY AND RENTAL RATE TRENDS Average monthly residential leasing velocity in the downtown area in 2009 averaged 345 units per month. Monthly leasing activity in the downtown area including all existing and new housing during the last 3-months of 2009 (October 2009 – December 2009) was down slightly, averaging 332 lease closings per month. Renter demand is a significant factor in the reduction of vacant housing inventory and is contributing to expanding demand for a diverse base of commercial retail and service businesses in the downtown area. Most renters are full-time residents spending daily for food, goods and services. 23-0/ 3:1 J03/8:I O5;8];C D.@:;.@: B83A8 O=03 ^3:63=C "''+ Ͳ D050AG0= "''+ +''
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EXHIBIT IV.1 CONDOMINIUM SALES AND LEASING TRENDS
RESIDENTIAL SALES VELOCITY An average of 231 condominium sales were closed monthly in the downtown area including first-time sale of new units and resales of new and old units in 2009. Approximately 64% of total sales, or on average about 150 sales per month, were first-time sales in new buildings in 2009. Average monthly residential sales in the Downtown Miami Area during the fourth quarter of 2009 reached over 350 units, a 200%+ increase over total sales volume during the same period in 2008. Monthly sales in the downtown area fluctuated during the past several months increasing to 486 units in December, up from a low point of 100 sales per month in January 2009.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
13
O]0=3I0 R0/810:;83- R0:;3- R3;0 L=0:1/ D.@:;.@: 2;61C O=03U ^3: "''+ Ͳ D05 "''+ B.:;a-C R3;0
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EXHIBIT IV.2 AVERAGE RENTAL RATE TRENDS
MONTHLY CONDOMINIUM SALES First Time New Unit Sales vs. Resales !'' **'
4;a0= _R0/3-0/`
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EXHIBIT IV.3 MONTHLY CONDOMINIUM SALES TREND
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
14
D.@:;.@: 2;61C O=03 R0/810:;83- 23-0/ 9713;0 3:1 <=.>8-0U ^3: "''+ Ͳ D05 "''+ ?*%'@-2 A0-"( B4*C&-" ^3:Ͳ'+ F0GͲ'+ B3=Ͳ'+ O7=Ͳ'+ B3CͲ'+ ^6:Ͳ'+ ^6-Ͳ'+ O6IͲ'+ 207Ͳ'+ 45;Ͳ'+ ?.]Ͳ'+ D05Ͳ'+ L.;3-
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EXHIBIT IV.4 MONTHLY CONDOMINIUM SALES PROFILE
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
15
V. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK The number of unoccupied new condominiums in the downtown area has been reduced by over 2,600 units since the original study in 2009. Movement of new households to the downtown area is creating a younger, more diverse downtown population in addition to fueling demand for retail, services and restaurants that makes downtown Miami one of the few improving retail submarkets in the U.S. A number of factors continue to distinguish downtown Miami from most other U.S. urban centers and certain beneficial implications on the future viability and economic health of the downtown area such as: o The City and downtown area’s established image and function as an international banking, business and commerce center. o The City and downtown area’s major natural and proximate resort amenities attracting domestic and International visitors. o Expanded housing capacity and affordability including owner as well as rental housing alternatives. o Condominium inventory and discounted trading prices will continue to enhance the attractiveness and affordability of the urban lifestyle in the downtown area. Inventory Absorption/Occupancy Outlook – If the absorption rate of vacant condominium units evidenced since the original study in 2009 continues, the vacant inventory would effectively be eliminated over the next 25-months. However, sustaining that rate of household movement into the downtown area will be subject to economic recovery and the prospects for a more stable employment situation and new job creation all of which remain highly uncertain at this time. The recovery of the downtown residential market in terms of stabilization and condominium price appreciation will extend well beyond the period of time during which the vacant inventory is occupied. This assessment is based on two factors. First, a high percentage of sales are investment purchases as opposed to end-users, so the effective inventory of for-sale units will remain abnormally high and maintain downward pressure on prices beyond the first-time sales period. Second, current rental rates only marginally offset ownership expense in most new condominium buildings and thus occupancy does not translate into economic viability of these buildings or recovery of development, construction and operation costs. Based on the pace of first-time sales of new units, sales absorption of remaining unsold inventory could extend out about four years with potential for stabilization of prices sometime beyond that point. The substantial overhang in new condominium product is increasingly being brought to market as rental stock. The volume of this inventory is also generating a highly competitive rental market which translates into greater affordability for thousands of people employed in the downtown Miami area. This combination of greater choice and affordability will, in our opinion continue to generate substantial household growth as supported by the Goodkin/Focus Population & Demographics Report in November 2009. The fact that the DDA area now offers so many shopping, hotels, dining and entertainment/cultural venues that did not exist prior to the Miami condominium bubble , further Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
16
enhances the strength of the primary market. A growing population in the downtown area also represents an expanding workforce for new and existing businesses occupying downtown area office space. Demand for office space from new residents includes-executive office space for affluent seasonal residents who wish to have an office with professional support services as well as increased demand for personal and professional services that will represent incremental demand for office space e.g. accounting, legal, medical, grooming ,home design. Additionally, new retailers and food and beverage operations often take office space in addition to the actual retail and restaurant space. Also, the DDA area receives strong support from off-shore demand for condominium product which supplements local primary demand more than any downtown area in the US. The expansion of the upper middle class throughout Latin America has contributed mightily to Miami housing demand and has been a key factor in demand for new and resale condominium product in the DDA area since the condominium bubble burst. This increase in high income foreign national households is also an important component of DDA area food and beverage sales; retail sales and personal services. The bottom line is that while the state of the Miami condominium market is causing hardship for many developers and lenders, the abundance of good rental and for-sale housing â&#x20AC;&#x2DC;valuesâ&#x20AC;&#x2122; will continue to attract local, national and international demand to the downtown area and provide greater support to the business community for goods and services.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Miami DDA
17
APPENDIX
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Miami DDA
18
BUILDINGS INCLUDED IN STUDY APPENDIX 1 – BUILDING LIST D8/;=85; H68-18:I ?3A0
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Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
19
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Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update – Miami DDA
20
CONDITIONS FOR REAL ESTATE MARKET ANALYSIS STUDIES The following Standard Conditions apply to real estate consulting engagements performed by Goodkin/Focus Strategic Alliance (Goodkin/Focus). Reports may contain estimates of future sales/rental activity (e.g., absorption rates, sales values/rents, etc.) or other events that represent the consultant's view of reasonable expectations at a particular point in time, but such activities or events are not offered as predictions or as assurances that absorption levels will be achieved, that events will occur, or that indicated prices/rents will be offered or accepted. Actual results achieved during the period covered by our analyses will vary from those described in our report, and the variations may be material. Information furnished by others is presumed to be reliable, and unless specified in the report to the contrary, has not been verified; no responsibility, whether legal or otherwise, is assumed for its accuracy, and it cannot be guaranteed as being certain. No single item of information will be completely relied upon to the exclusion of other information. Goodkin/Focus does not, as part of its engagement, perform an audit, review, examination or appraisal (as defined by the AICPA) of any historical or prospective financial information used, and therefore does not express any opinion with regard to same. The report and conclusions included therein are intended for the information of the person or persons to whom they are addressed, solely for the purposes stated therein, and should not be relied upon for any other purpose. In the event that the report is distributed to third parties, Goodkin/Focus shall be held harmless relative to their use or reliance on the report for any purpose. Neither our report, nor its contents, nor any reference to the consultants of Goodkin/Focus, may be included or quoted in any offering circular or registration statement, prospectus, sales brochure, appraisal, loan or other agreement or document without our prior written permission. Consulting engagements are accepted with the understanding that there is no obligation to provide services after completion of the original assignment or beyond any updates or other supplemental services specifically defined in this agreement. If the need for subsequent services related to a consulting engagement (e.g., testimony, updates, conferences, or other services) is contemplated, special arrangements acceptable to Goodkin/Focus must be made in advance. Conclusions presented in our report assume market conditions as observed as of the current date of our market research (stated in the letter of transmittal.) Goodkin/Focus assumes no liability should market conditions materially change because of unusual or unforeseen circumstances.
Closings and Occupancy Study, March 2010 Update â&#x20AC;&#x201C; Miami DDA
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