REALTORS® CONFIDENCE INDEX Report and Market Outlook November 2013 Edition
NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Research Department Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Based on Data Gathered December 2 – 11, 2013
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Table of Contents SUMMARY .................................................................................................................................................. 3 I. Market Conditions .................................................................................................................................... 4 REALTORS速 Confidence is Unchanged in November ......................................................................... 4 Buyer and Seller Traffic Index Slightly Improved in November ........................................................... 5 Median Days on the Market Increased to 56 Days ................................................................................... 7 Home Prices Still Rising ........................................................................................................................... 8 REALTORS速 Expect Prices to Increase Modestly in the Next 12 Months ............................................ 9 II. Buyer and Seller Characteristics ............................................................................................................ 11 Cash Sales: 32 Percent of Residential Sales .......................................................................................... 11 Mortgages With Down Payment of 20 Percent or More: 37 Percent of Mortgages ............................... 12 Distressed Sales at 14 Percent of Sales ................................................................................................... 12 First Time Buyers: 28 Percent of Residential Buyers ............................................................................ 14 Investors, Second-home Buyers, and Relocation Buyers ....................................................................... 14 International Transactions: About 1.8 Percent of Residential Market .................................................... 16 Rising Rents for Residential Properties .................................................................................................. 16 III. Current Issues........................................................................................................................................ 18 Tight Credit Conditions and Slow Lending Process ............................................................................... 18 Reason For Not Closing A Sale .............................................................................................................. 18 Millenials Account for About 1 in 4 of Reported Sales .......................................................................... 19 IV. Commentaries by NAR Research ......................................................................................................... 20 Latest Loan Mortgage Applications ........................................................................................................ 20 Latest Housing Affordability Data .......................................................................................................... 22 Comments on SentriLock Data on Properties Shown by REALTORS速 ............................................... 24
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SUMMARY Jed Smith and Gay Cororaton The REALTORS® Confidence Index (RCI) Report provides monthly information about market conditions and expectations, buyer/seller traffic, price trends, buyer profiles, and issues affecting real estate based on information gathered from REALTOR® responses to a monthly survey. The current report is based on the responses of 2,905 REALTORS® about their transactions in November1. Questions about the characteristics of the buyer and the sale are based on the respondent’s last transaction for the month. The survey was conducted during December 2 -11, 2013. All real estate is local: conditions in specific markets may vary from the overall national trends presented in this report. The information gathered concerning transactions in November indicates that the market is “still good” although not as strong as before. Local conditions vary. There were reports of a slowdown coming from states such as New York, Iowa, California, Texas, Ohio, Delaware, and Florida, and reports of strong “micro-markets” from states like Wisconsin, Washington, Arkansas, and Indiana. Many REALTORS® reported that the increase in interest rates, the prospect of interest rates further rising in 2014, and higher property mortgage insurance for FHA loans have put off interested homebuyers. Meanwhile, conventional loans which do not require upfront PMI downpayments continue to be difficult to access due to stricter underwriting guidelines. REALTORS® continued to report that mortgage financing is extremely difficult to obtain with the market favoring those who pay cash and who put down large downpayments. The loan processing period was reported as extremely protracted. Low or inconsistent appraisal values continued to be reported as affecting transactions adversely. Lack of inventory, although eased somewhat compared to previous months, continues to be a drag on the recovery. REALTORS® reported the dearth of REOs that could augment supply for homebuyers, given that REOs are instead being converted to rentals by investors. With improving inventory and slowing demand, price appreciation has eased. Properties were also generally on the market longer than was the case a few months ago. REALTORS® expressed anxiety about the effect of the Qualified Mortgage rules that come into effect in January 2014 and which are expected to further decrease credit availability. In coastal areas such as Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, and Vermont, the steep increase in flood insurance rates was reported as the primary factor depressing demand. Another concern was the impact on consumer finances with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act. The modest job recovery effect of tighter fiscal spending remains as a major issue affecting the recovery.
1
This is the total number of respondents for the entire survey. The number of responses to a specific question can be less because the question is not applicable to the respondent , non-response, or drop out. The survey was sent to a random sample of about 50,000 REALTORS®.
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I. Market Conditions REALTORS® Confidence is Unchanged in November Confidence about current market conditions was essentially unchanged from October to November. The index for single family sales registered at 59 (58 in October) . The indexes for townhouses/duplexes was at 42 while the index for condominiums stayed at 38. An index of 50 marks “moderate” conditions.2 However, REALTORS® appear to be more confident about the outlook for the next 6 months, but this appears to be tied to the seasonal upswing in the spring. The 6-month outlook index for single family rose to 64 (60 in October). The index for townhouses surged to 56 (45 in October ) and the index for condominiums increased to 43 (40 in October).
REALTORS® Confidence Index - Current Conditions 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
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Nov 2013: SF: 59 TH: 42 Condo: 38
SF
Townhouse
Condo
An index of 50 delineates “moderate” conditions and indicates a balance of respondents having “weak”(index=0) and “strong” (index=100) expectations. The index is not adjusted for seasonality effects. 2
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REALTORS速 Confidence Index - Six Month Outlook
Nov 2013: SF: 64 TH: 56 Condo: 43
200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904 200907 200910 201001 201004 201007 201010 201101 201104 201107 201110 201201 201204 201207 201210 201301 201304 201307 201310
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
SF
Townhouse
Condo
Buyer and Seller Traffic Index Slightly Improved in November
The Indexes for buyer and seller traffic slightly increased in November. The Buyer Traffic Index increased to 56 (53 in October ) while the Seller Traffic Index edged up to 43 (41 in October ). REALTORS速 reported more inventory on the market although supply is still generally perceived as tight. REALTORS速 Indexes of Buyer and Seller Traffic 80 70
Nov 2013: Buyer: 56 Seller : 43
60 50 40 30 200801 200804 200807 200810 200901 200904 200907 200910 201001 201004 201007 201010 201101 201104 201107 201110 201201 201204 201207 201210 201301 201304 201307 201310
20
Buyer Traffic Index
Seller Traffic Index
REALTORS速 provided comments about conditions in their local markets. Below are some of these comments representing concerns such as the tight inventory, effect of higher mortgage rates and tight credit standards, appraisal issues, increase in flood insurance rates and property mortgage insurance, and the economy and job growth. Page | 5
SOME COMMENTS FROM REALTORS® - November RCI Survey Slowing Market
Buyers will wait until February to begin looking in earnest, and multiple offers will begin in the spring. (CA) Buyers disappeared in November, most likely for the holidays. Hopefully we see a strong return by mid-January. (MA) Northern VA market is still hot though not quite red hot. Instead of receiving 3-5 offers on a house as in the spring, there might be 1-3 now. (VA) Market will continue to flourish but at a lower pace. (WI) Micro-markets predominant; conditions vary depending on price for area and property types, condition, features. Multiple offers still common but not as prevalant as early this year. (WA) Market has slowed down but there are still buyers shopping. (CA) Market has slowed some what but still good. If the home is in prestine condition we see multibidding. (TX) Market seems to continue to improve in 2013. (AR) Looks like the market is normalizing. It should remain stable as long as there are no outside pressures applied. (WA) Beginning of the year was very strong for Sellers. Many received multiple offers within the first month. Once June came it slowed down. (WI) Seeing the market get slow - buyers taking lots more time even though interest rates have risen. (FL) REO's and Short Sales have all but vanished! (CA) Since mortgage rate gone up, my office very quiet. Recent transaction could not close because it’s hard to get a loan, or home inspection could not satisfy. Market not stable, buyer are not sure to buy or price will go down. Lender takes so long to close a loan, then market changes. (VA) Anticipating issues with new mortgage guidelines in January. Trying to get applications in progress in Dec to avoid new income guidlines which we believe will slow entry level buyers which have been fueling our market this year. (MA) New construction is starting to show some possibilities. (WI) Lots of FSBO...more than usual. Sellers market. (MI) Sellers hear that the market is increasing and are asking much more than buyers are willing to pay. Sellers are continuing to reduce prices to get the homes to sell. (AZ) My cash buyers are still looking for a super bargain and are being out bid by investors or others. (GA) More cash offers in lower priced homes. (DE) Anticipating issues with new mortgage guidelines in January. Trying to get applications in progress in Dec to avoi entry level buyers which have been fueling our market this year. (MA). Bank documentation requirements, even for high scoring buyers, bank short sale process difficulty, and auction w foreclosures are the biggest obstacles to property sales. (MN) Loans are becoming more difficult to close, and underwriters are becoming more strict. (OR) Major decrease in foreclosures. Very minimal short sales. Decline of first time homebuyers. (TN) Increase in interest rates. Increase in prices. Decrease in debt to income ratios. Changes to FHA guidelines Decline of new home construction Higher unemployment rates Mortgages have become more complicated (paperwork) (NC) Lack of FHA approved condos is having a profound negative effect on the sale of these homes. (NJ) Economy is too fragile for people to be comfortable on making major purchases. (MA) Even buyers with excellent credit are having to jump through many hoops to get the loan to close. (KY) Flood Insurance issue has impacted this coastal area. Unknown future costs scares buyers away. (MS) Flood insurance premiums for buyers is a BIG deterrent to sale. (VT) Reverse mortgages are increasing (UT).
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Median Days on the Market Increased to 56 Days With a slowdown in demand, properties stayed longer on the market. The median days on the market reported by REALTOR速 respondents who had a sale was 56 days (54 days in October), up from its lowest point of 37 days in June 2013. Approximately 35 percent of respondents reported that properties were on the market for less than a month (36 percent in October) . Short sales were on the market for the longest days at 120 days (93 days in October), and foreclosed properties were on market at 59 days (44 days in October) . Non-distressed properties had a median stay of of 55 days (53 days in October). Conditions varied across areas. Median Days on Market 120
Nov 2013: 56 days
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Source: NAR, RCI Survey
Distribution of Reported Sales by Time On Market 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
35%
17% 12%
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4%
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<1 mo 1-2 mo 2-3 mo 3-4 mo 4-5 mo 5-6 mo 6-9 mo 9-12 mo >=12 mo 201211 201310 201311
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Median Days on Market by Type of Sale 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Nov2013: Foreclosed: 59; Shortsale: 120 ; Not distressed: 55; All: 56
All Source: NAR, RCI Survey
Foreclosed
Short Sales
Not distressed
Home Prices Still Rising Home price are still generally rising although at a tempered pace. About 87 percent of respondents reporting constant or rising prices (85 percent in October). Approximately 12 percent of reported sales were of properties that sold at a net premium compared to the original listing price. In mid-2013, about 20 percent of REALTORS速 reported selling properties at a premium.
Percentage of Respondents Reporting Constant or Higher Prices Today Compared to a Year Ago 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
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Nov 2013: 87%
Percent of Resported Sales Where Property Sold at a Net Premium Compared to the Original Listing Price 25% 19% 19% 19% 18% 17% 16% 16%
20% 15%
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14%
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REALTORS速 Expect Prices to Increase Modestly in the Next 12 Months Prices are still expected to generally increase although at a slower pace. About 90 percent of REALTOR速 respondents expect constant or higher prices in the next 12 months (same as in September). The median expected price increase is 3.7 percent3. REALTORS'速 Price Expectations for Next 12 Months Nov 2013: 90% expect constant/higher prices in next 12 months 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50%
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The median is the middle value. A median expected price change of 4 percent means that 50 percent of respondents expect prices to increase above 4 percent while the other 50 percent expect prices to increase (or decrease) at less than 4 percent.
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REALTORS® Median Expected Price Change for Next 12 Months, in Percent 6.0% Nov 2013: 3.7% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 201311
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The graph below shows the median expected price change across the states which are grouped into those with “low”, “middle” and “high” price expectations4. Tight inventory continues to prop up prices. State Median Price Expectation for Next 12 Months (in%) Based on REALTORS Confidence Index Survey, Sep-Nov 2013 Surveys
4
The median expected price increase at the state level is based on the last 3 surveys to increase the sample size for each state.
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II. Buyer and Seller Characteristics Cash Sales: 32 Percent of Residential Sales Approximately 32 percent of reported sales were cash sales 5. About 12 percent of reported sales made by a first-time buyer were cash sales compared to about 70 percent for investors and 85 percent for international buyers. Cash Sales as Percent of Market 40%
Nov 2013: 32%
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Percent of Sales That are All-Cash, by Type of Buyer-- Nov 2013 85%
90% 80% 69%
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52%
50% 40% 26%
30% 20%
12%
10% 0% FTHBuyer
5
Investor
Second home
Relocation
The RCI Survey asks about the most recent sale for the month.
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International Distressed Sale
Mortgages With Down Payment of 20 Percent or More: 37 Percent of Mortgages About 37 percent of REALTOR速 respondents who reported a mortgage financing reported a down payment of 20 percent or more. REALTORS速 have reported that buyers who pay cash or put down large downpayments generally win against those offering lower downpayments. Percent of Mortgage Sales With Downpayment of At Least 20 Percent
38% 37% 36% 35% 34% 33% 32% 31% 30% 29%
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Nov 2013: 37%
Distressed Sales at 14 Percent of Sales Approximately 14 percent of REALTOR速 respondents reported a sale of a distressed property, substantially down from levels a few years ago. This trend is in line with the broad decline in foreclosure inventory. Distressed Sales, As Percent of Sales Reported by REALTORS速 60%
Nov 2013: Foreclosed: 9% Shortsale: 5%
50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
Foreclosed
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Short Sale
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Foreclosed property sold at a 17 percent average discount to market , while short sales sold at a 13 percent average discount.6 The discount varied by house condition. For the past 12 months, properties in “above average” condition have been discounted by an average of 10-11 percent, while properties in “below average” condition were discounted at an average of 16-20 percent. Mean Percentage Price Discount of Distressed Sales Reported by REALTORS® (in %)
% 30
Nov 2013: Foreclosed: 17%; Shortsale: 13% 25 20 15 10 200902 200904 200906 200908 200910 200912 201002 201004 201006 201008 201010 201012 201102 201104 201106 201108 201110 201112 201202 201204 201206 201208 201210 201212 201302 201304 201306 201308 201310
5
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Shortsale
Mean Percent Price Discount by Property Condition of Reported Distressed Sales (in percent) Unweighted Average for Dec 2012 to Nov 2013 25 20
20 15 10
16 11
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5 0 Above average
Average
Foreclosed
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Below average
Short sale
The estimation of the level of discount is based on an estimate of what the property would have sold for if it had not been distressed (possibly in better condition, absent any taint of being distressed).
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First Time Buyers: 28 Percent of Residential Buyers Approximately 28 percent of REALTOR® respondents reported a sale to a first time home buyer7 (same as in October). REALTORS® continue to report that first time buyers who generally use mortgage financing are finding it hard to compete against investors who typically pay cash. First Time Buyers as Percent of Market 60%
Nov 2013: 28%
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Investors, Second-home Buyers, and Relocation Buyers
About 19 percent of REALTOR® respondents reported a sale to an investor, 10 percent reported a sale to a second-home buyer, and 12 percent reported a sale to a relocation buyer. There has been a feedback from REALTORS® that many baby boomers would like to downsize, but there are not enough buyers for larger homes.
7
First time buyers account for about 40 percent of all homebuyers based on data from NAR’s Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
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Relocation Buyers as Percent of Market
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Sales to Investors as Percent of Market
30%
Nov 2013: 19%
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Second-Home Buyers as Percent of Market Nov 2013: 10%
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International Transactions: About 1.8 Percent of Residential Market Approximately 1.8 percent of REALTOR® respondents had a sale to foreigners not residing in the U.S. International buyers typically pay cash . In NAR’s 2013 Profile of International Homebuying Activity, the major buyers were reported as being from Canada, China, Mexico, India, and the United Kingdom. Sales to International Clients as Percent of Market 4.0%
Nov 2013: 1.8%
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5%
201003 201005 201007 201009 201011 201101 201103 201105 201107 201109 201111 201201 201203 201205 201207 201209 201211 201301 201303 201305 201307 201309 201311
0.0%
Rising Rents for Residential Properties Among those REALTORS® involved in a rental, close to half reported higher residential rents compared to 12 months ago. About 20 percent of REALTORS® reported conducting an apartment rental and about 4 percent reported a commercial rental transaction. Percent of Respondents Reporting Rising Rent Levels as Compared to 12 Months Ago 80%
Nov 2013: 49%
70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
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Percent of Respondents Conducting An Apartment Rental 35%
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Percent of Respondents Conducting A Commercial Rental
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4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
III. Current Issues Tight Credit Conditions and Slow Lending Process REALTORS® continued to express concern over unreasonably tight credit conditions. Mortgage lenders were reported as continuing to display an unnecessarily high level of risk aversion. In the 2001-04 time frame approximately, only 40 percent of residential loans acquired by the Government Enterprises (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) went to applicants with credit scores above 740. In the FHFA 2013 Second Quarter report, Fannie Mae’s average FICO score fore new business was 756 and Freddie Mac was 7518. Approximately slightly more than half of NAR’s RCI survey respondents who provided credit score information reported FICO credit scores of 740 and above. Estimates by NAR economists have indicated that a significant number of additional sales—possibly as high as 500,000--could be made if credit conditions returned to normal. Distribution of Reported FICO Scores-- RCI Surveys 57%
60% 50% 40% 25%
30% 20% 10%
6%
10%
2%
0% lt 620
620 - 659 RCI-Nov'12
660-699
700-739
RCI_Oct'13
RCI_Nov'13
740+
Reason For Not Closing A Sale
Access to credit is often cited as a deterrent to home buying. Based on data from the November survey, about 9 percent of REALTORS® who did not close a sale in November and who had transactions in that month reported having buyers who could not obtain financing. About 6 percent reported that the buyer gave up while 3 percent reported that the buyer continued to seek new/other financing. Lack of agreement on price accounted for 9 percent. Meanwhile, appraisal issues accounted for only 3 percent of failure to close a sale.
8
FHFA Quarterly Performance Report of the Housing GSEs, Second Quarter 2013. http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25515/2Q2013QuarterlyPerformanceReport091913.pdf
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Reasons Identified by REALTORS速 For Not Closing A Sale in November 2013
Still working to close a sale.
49%
Buyer could not obtain financing and gave up
6%
Buyer could not obtain financing, but is still trying
3%
Appraisal issues/problems.
3%
Buyer/seller could not agree on price.
9%
House did not pass inspection.
2%
Not applicable- I am not an agent/broker.
3%
Other (please specify)
24%
Millenials Account for About 1 in 4 of Reported Sales Distribution of Age of Buyer Based on Reported Sales of REALTORS速 in November 2013 RCI Survey Age 34 and under 24%
Age 56+ 23%
Age 35 to 55 53%
Age 34 and under Age 35 to 55 Age 56+ Page | 19
Percent Distribution of Reported Sales of REALTORS速 Nov 2013 RCI July 2013 RCI Survey Sept 2013 RCI Survey Survey 25.5% 24.7% 23.9% 52.4% 49.4% 52.7% 22.1% 25.9% 23.4%
IV. Commentaries by NAR Research Latest Loan Mortgage Applications Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist
Mortgage applications for both home purchase and refinances rose slightly in the past week. From one year ago, applications for home purchase are down by 10 percent while applications for refinances are lower by a whopping 68 percent. Refinance activity is already touching a decade low and is likely to fall even further next year as mortgage rates increase. Mortgage rates will go from a 4 percent average in 2013 to about a 5 percent average in 2014, based on NAR projections. Home buying has been completed not only using mortgages but also via all-cash. The cash transactions fortunately have been about one-third of the market in the current environment of extra underwriting stringency. Going into 2014, lenders will lend more focus to home purchase applications since refi business will undoubtedly collapse. Banks have huge cash reserves. Mortgage default rates among recent home buyers of the past 3 years have been at historic lows. Market incentives are clearly there for more lending for home purchases. The one big unknown, however, is coming from Washington in terms of new mortgage regulations and of the increased lawsuit risks from any small deviation from government directives. A right balance should be pursued to assure consumer protection and rein in the excesses of private sector risk taking. However, too much regulation and too many lawsuits also carry the risk of lessening lending. It is worth noting that lenders are not the bad guys. They are channeling people’s savings into other people’s borrowing. A historical lesson is also worth remembering. To gain popular support and to show his distaste for lenders, the Roman Emperor Hadrian held a public bonfire. It was going to be the burning of all the loan documents. As a result all debtors were quickly relieved of their obligations. This action, however, marked the beginning of the end of the Roman Empire. No one in their right mind would further lend afterwards. Without lending, there is no innovation. The Dark Middle Ages, where life was short, brutish, and nasty, descended in Europe and was to last for about thousand years.
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Latest Housing Affordability Data Danielle Hale, Director, Housing Statistics The seasonal slowdown in home prices has combined with roughly steady mortgage rates and rising income to give a slight boost to affordability, but the trend from a year ago remains down. What is affordability like in your market?
Housing affordability is up for the month of September in the US and 3 of 4 regions as prices eased seasonally from August. The median single-family home price is down roughly 5 percent from last month even as August marks tenth consecutive month of double-digit yearover-year price gains for single-family homes. This easing of prices helped boost the affordability index 6 points from a month ago nationally and boosted the index by 8 points from what it might have been if the price level in August were combined with September’s mortgage rates and income. Because home prices remained roughly steady in the West, it was the only region not to see a boost in affordability from August to September. Mortgage rates, while still climbing, slowed from the nearly half and quarter point jumps seen in July and August. Mortgage rates were up 12 basis points from August and 85 basis points from September a year ago. At current prices and with a 20 percent down payment, the rise in rates means roughly $12 extra in a monthly mortgage payment from a month ago and roughly $79 more than a year ago. While incomes continue to rise, they are not keeping pace with home price gains and mortgage rate increases from a year ago. Nationally, affordability is down from 198.4 in September 2012 to 164.3 in September 2013. Affordability is also down from a year ago in all 4 regions, and coincides with rising prices. The biggest drop in affordability has been in the West followed by the South, Midwest, and Northeast. September prices were up 16
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percent in the West from a year ago while they show a gain of only 1 percent in the Northeast from September 2012. This slight easing of affordability is welcome for potential buyers, but uncertainty remains. While rates have eased slightly in response to confirmation hearings for Janet Yellen, the current nominee for Chairwoman of the Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve has committed to pushing rates higher as needed to stanch inflation as the economy improves. The Fed has a tricky balancing act ahead, and assuming the forecast economic improvement finally materializes the trajectory for rates in the future is higher. If prices hold steady, the long run trend for housing affordability will be lower. For a look at how the housing market might respond to higher rates, I recommend this Stress Test by Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. What does housing affordability look like in your market? View the full data release here. The Housing Affordability Index calculation assumes a 20 percent down payment and a 25 percent qualifying ratio (principle and interest payment to income). See further details on the methodology and assumptions behind the calculation here.
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Comments on SentriLock Data on Properties Shown by REALTORS® Ken Fears, Director, Regional Economics and Housing Finance For the third consecutive month, the diffusion index for foot traffic held roughly steady. This plateau follows a sharp mid-summer decline in the wake of a 1% increase in mortgage rates. Rates eased in October, but crept upward in late November, which could weigh on future trends.
Every month SentriLock, LLC. provides NAR Research with data on the number of properties shown by a REALTOR®. Foot traffic has a strong correlation with future contracts and home sales, so it can be viewed as a peek ahead at sales trends two to three months into the future. For the month of November, the diffusion index for foot traffic eased 2.5 points to 48.1. Mortgage rates started the month low, but ticked upward in the later part of November on positive economic news and anticipation of a potential taper of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve. However, foot traffic held relatively steady for the 3rd consecutive month. Inventories remain tight in some markets like San Diego, which would constrain an increase in local foot traffic. But several markets across the Midwest have slowed relative to last year. Markets that continue to expand are doing so modestly.The index eased just under the “50” mark in November which indicates that more than half of the markets in this panel had stronger foot traffic in November of 2013 than the same month a year earlier. This reading does not suggest how much of a decrease in traffic there was, just that the majority of markets experienced less foot traffic in November of 2013 compared to a year earlier. The post-rate-spike recovery appears to have taken root. However, rates did ease in October and early November. Still, traffic remained strong despite the disruption of the government shutdown. Rates have since increased closer to 4.5% which could weigh on traffic in the coming months if the increases continue.
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