REC Solar – Bankability pack
REC continuously climbs up in the top 10 ranking by increasing module shipments and thus its market share The M/S of the Top 10 players increased slightly to 47,3,% compared to 45,8% in Q4’11 Quarterly MW Shipments1) Ranking based on Q1’12 shipments
Q1’12 539
373
Yingli
Q4’11
508 495
First Solar
611 634
380 425 370
Trina Solar
379
520
Suntech 343
Canadian Solar
355 241 254
Sharp
582
436
319
196 203 240
Sunpower
5,1%
8,3%
8,3%
7,6%
5,8%
5,8%
7,1%
5,8%
5,9%
5,3%
3,5%
3,7%
2,8%
3,0%
REC Group
191 161 141
2,2%
2,9%
Kyocera
160 170 185
2,3%
2,5%
3,0%
2,3%
149
LDK
217
163
1) Branded and OEM module shipments; 2) Total market: Q4’11: 7,4 GW, Q1’12: 6,5GW Sources: IMS PV Modules, Cells, Wafers & Polysilicon - Supply & Demand - Quarterly - Q2'12 Edition
2
Q3’11
Market Share2) (%) Q4 2011 Q1 2012
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As largest European player in modules, REC has reached the scale for sustainable success PV Module Supplier Shipments and Market Shares Annual Shipments1) in 2011 MW
Market Share2) 2011 (%)
Suntech
2,096
First Solar
1,953
Yingli
1,604
Trina Solar
1,512
Canadian Solar
1,322
Sharp
1,147
844
Hanwha SolarOne
7,1% 5,8% 5,5% 4,8% 4,2% 3,1%
Sunpower
766
2,8%
Jinko Solar
761
2,8%
Kyocera REC Group
630 594
1) Branded and OEM module shipments; 2) Total 2011: 27,6 GW Sources: IMS Q4’2011 PV Modules tracker 3
7,6%
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2,3% 2,2%
With the refinancing, REC is well positioned to weather a challenging market environment Through this refinancing REC’s shareholders and lending banks shows continued strong support Proforma Q1 2012 nominal net debt after proposed refinancing 1) 2)
Proforma Q1 2012 liquidity after proposed refinancing2)
NOKbn
7.0
6.5
6.5
5.5
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.5
4.5
1.45
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
5.0
2.5
Q1 drawn bank debt of 1.7bn vs new bank facility of NOK 2.0bn
6.0
1.9
2.0
No debt maturities until 2014
New financing package is well perceived within the industry and investors:
1.45
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
1)
0.5
“The company will now have a very strong balance sheet and liquidity position to withstand the challenging market environment“ (Source: DNB Bank)
0.3
2.5 ~3.6
3.7 1.9
0.5
0.0
0.0 REC debt
REC significantly reduced its net debt and increased its liquidity
NOKbn
7.0
6.0
Cash
Net Net pro- Net debt debt Q1 ceeds proforma
Cash Q1 Net Undrawn Liquidity reported proceeds bank debt Q1 proforma
”The company is, in our view, well-positioned to weather difficult market conditions for several years. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.” (Source: DNB Markets Equity Research)
Notes: 1) Based on nominal values of bonds. Does not include fair-value adjustments of bonds and upfront fees. 2) Based on NOK 1.3bn Private Placement, NOK 250m subscription in the Subsequent Offering of up to NOK 375m, expected transaction costs of NOK 0.1bn and bank facility of 2.0bn 4
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REC well positioned to weather challenging market ”REC reported better than expected Q2 results, driven by cost improvements and high volumes. Polysilicon costs decreased even further, and the Singapore plant is well on track to be in the black for H2 2012. […] The revised [refinancing] plan significantly bolsters the company’s balance sheet.” (Håkon Levy, DNB Markets, 19/07/2012)
”REC surprised positively […] Faster than expected cost reductions, a small loss in the wafer division and slightly higher module prices explain the positive deviation. […] This impressive given the tough conditions both externally and internally.” (Preben Rasch-Olsen, Carnegie, 20/07/2012)
” Key highlights of the quarter [Q2’12] are the lower costs than expected in Poly of $12/kg and module cash costs to €71cts/w which come as positive surprises.” (Jean-Francois Meymandi, UBS, 19/07/2012) ” Still making money in the industry shake-out […] We believe REC has a good enough cost position, first of all within REC Silicon, to be among the companies that could survive the current shake-out or being acquired in the coming consolidation. The company has improved its balance sheet, giving it more financial headroom, and is well set to remain among the profit making Tier 1 players in the PV solar industry.”
“REC has been exposed to the woes of the solar sector, […] and has been quick to act. […] The financial restructuring should leave REC with a secure financial footing, cost-leading silicon activities in the US, and low-cost integrated downstream production in Singapore, all of which we believe should be able to generate material EBITDA margins. (Jason Channell, Citi Research, 13/07/2012)
(Truls Kolsrud Engene, SEB Enskilda, 19/07/2012)
Sources: DNB Markets, 19/07/2012; SEB Enskilda, 19/07/2012; Citi Research, 13/07/2012; Carnegie, 20/07/2012; UBS 19/07/2012 5
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REC Market Intelligence
REC is among the leaders in the solar sector in terms of market capitalization
Market Capitalization by Company In EUR million (as of 30. July 2012) 1.021
368
357 268
262 230 184 138
REC
111
Yingli
Note: GCL Poly is excluded from the Market cap sample due to its power business, which can not be separated Exchange rates 30.07.2012: USD/EUR 0,81155; NOK/EUR 0,13422 Source: Bloomberg; Company websites 6
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96
74
47
21
In revenue generation, REC is holding a leading position as well
Total Revenues 2011 by Company In EUR million 2.259 1.986
1.890 1.714
1.674
1.660
1.549
1.470
1.363 1.047 861 713
704 406
Note: GCL Poly revenues include only its Solar business (poly + wafer revenues) 2011 avg. exchange rates: USD/EUR 0,7178; HKD/EUR 0,0921; NOK/EUR 0,1282 Source: Bloomberg; Company websites 7
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Industry restructuring is currently in progress Examples for recent bankruptcies, market exits and business model changes
2011
August 2011: Evergreen , Solyndra vand SpectraWatt filed for insolvency
December 2011: BP Solar pulls out of solar operations
December 2011: Solon announces insolvency
8
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2012
February 2012: Shut down of Wafer and Cell operations by Conergy
Feb.-March 2012: Shut down of Wafer and Cell operations in Germany by Schott Solar
March 2012: Hanwha slides into losses in Q4 2011 and announces strategic shift into downstream
April 2012: FirstSolar pulls out of Germany, and scales back its operations in Malaysia
May 2012:Sovello and Inventux file for bankruptcy
April 2012: , Q-Cells SE filed for bankruptcy
June 2012: Solarwatt and Konarka file for insolvency protection
April 2012: SunPower closed its Philippine solar factory to cut costs
June 2012: Schott Solar announces surprise exit from c-Si manufacturing
REC Market Intelligence
REC Group - Financial highlights Revenues
EBITDA Margin Q1: 21%
NOK million 4,109 4,000 3,391 3,001
3,000
2,865
2,500
2,138
2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
Q1’ 11
Q2’ 11
Q3’ 11
Q4’ 11
Q1’ 12
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NOK million
1,500 1,449 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 871 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Q1’ Q2’ 11 11 Margin
9
Margin Q1: 3%
NOK million
4,500
3,500
EBIT
35%
26%
1,000
772
500
EBIT before impairment
202
-98
0
-288
59
-500 -1,000 -1,282
-1,500 -2,000 455 370
-2,500 -2,738
-3,000 178
-6,000 -6,500
Q3’ 11 12%
Q4’ 11 6%
Q1’ 12 21%
Margin
-6,260 Q1’ 11
Q2’ 11
Q3’ 11
Q4’ 11
Q1’ 12
19%
-185% -43% -96% 3%
REC shows the highest balance sheet strength among its c-Si peers, well above the average level Quick ratio (Liquidity ratio) by company In Q1 2012 1,98
1,57
1,97
Chinese balance sheets coming under increased scrutiny
In general, the higher the ratio, the greater the company's liquidity
Suntech, Jinko, Yingli, and Canadian under most stress
Low ratio implies potential need to raise additional capital and restructuring of debt, or “forgiveness” of part of credit from Chinese banks as cash flow prospects in 2012 are weak
Ø 1,05
1,29 1,07
0,87 0,75
0,75
0,70 0,47
Note: Quick ratio (or liquidity ratio) = (near-liquid assets ÷ short-term liabilities); A company with a Quick Ratio of less than 1 cannot currently pay back its current liabilities; In general, the higher the ratio, the greater the company's liquidity (i.e., the better able to meet current obligations using liquid assets). Source: Greentech Media, Q1 2012 Insight call 10
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REC continuous to show a healthy debt/equity ratio Debt/equity ratios are for most players on the high side, whereas REC displays a healthy balance
Leading solar industry players are increasing their D/E ratio, REC shows a healthy ratio with 0,50 in Q4 2011 and 0,51 in Q1 2012 compared to the majority of industry peers,
ESTIMATES; BASED ON PUBLIC DATA
Debt / Equity Ratio* comparison REC peers
Q4 2010
Quarterly
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
7,7 6,7
3,4 3,5 2,8
0,4 0,5 0,5
1,4 0,9 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,9 0,5 0,5
1,6
1,6 1,8
2,0 2,0 1,2
0,8
2,1 2,1 1,2
2,6
2,8
2,7
2,1 1,1
1,2
1,1
* Calculation incl. bonds payable, notes payable and convertibles as part of debt Source: Company statements 11
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REC Market Intelligence
REC Group is continuously reducing its net debt Net debt levels of the top solar producers are rising Q-o-Q Net Debt level development of the Top Solar Manufacturers In EUR million .REC reduced net debt level continuously over five quarters
Q4 2010 Q4 2011
2.680
REC Group - Net debt development In EUR million 2.049 -41%
934
839 682
605
1.273
553
1.013
891 738
686
666 447
Q1 ’11 Q2 ’11 Q3 ’11 Q4 ’11 Q1 ’12
317
288 138
252 37
171 30
104
-139 Jinko CanadianSuntech Yingli Note: EUR/USD exchange rate of 1,41 in 4Q10, 1,35 in 4Q11 Source: Company reports 12
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Solar- Renesola JA Sunpower Trina world Solar
REC Silicon –Cash production costs of $13/Kg FBR production is the lowest cost in the industry Silicon – FBR
SG&A and R&D
USD/kg
Depreciation
“REC’s cash cost targets for silicon imply a healthy EBITDA margin and would currently place REC as the lowest cost producer in the industry” (Citi Group, Feb 2012)
Cash production cost
-39%
EXTERNAL ANALYSIS
42 4
Polysilicon supply curve as of April 2012 USD/kg - variable cost including SG&A = cash cost
-13%
16 26 4
23 3
23 3
7
7
14
12.5
12.5
Q4’11
Q1’12
Q4’12 Target
8
23
Q3’10
FBR cash production cost of 12.5 USD/kg
FBR production target of 15,000 MT in 2012, 40 percent above design capacity
2012 total production target up 1,000 MT to 21,500 MT
Notes: 1) Assumes thin film supply of approximately 2,5 GW, 6,25 g/watt per module. Semiconductor demand at 28.000 MT Source: Citi Investment Research and Analysis, 21.02.2012; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 13
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