PROPERTY IN 2021

After the worst economic downturn in decades, further dampened by the recent tightening of lockdown restrictions in response to the second wave of the pandemic and the recommencement of load shedding, economic growth – while admittedly coming off a low base – is still widely expected to show some positive growth of around 3% this year.

According to Dr Andrew Golding, chief executive of the Pam Golding Property group, coupled with this, a number of factors are expected to continue to underpin current activity in the housing market. These include interest rates which are likely to remain at a near-record low this year; an ongoing large number of potential firsttime buyers (many of whom were previously tenants but are now able to afford to purchase a property at current low interest rates) eager to gain a foothold on the property ladder; and financial institutions with a continued appetite to extend mortgages to home buyers.

That said, the more stringent lockdown restrictions potentially threaten the strength of the anticipated economic recovery, which is likely to result in an increase in our already high levels of unemployment, while rising oil prices are expected to see a

WITH OUR LIVES ON A CONSTANT ROLLER-COASTER RIDE, WHERE IS THE HOUSING MARKET HEADED IN 2021? GARETH BAILEY TAKES A CLOSER LOOK

significant increase in the fuel price in February and possibly thereafter – thereby creating some inflationary impacts.

Realistically, the robust pace of residential property activity seen during the latter part of 2020 as lockdown restrictions were eased, while currently ongoing, is unlikely to be sustained throughout 2021. In part this reflects the fact that some of that activity was due to pent-up demand created during the initial lockdown, while other buyers were responding to the aggressive interest rate cuts.

With growth prospects expected to weaken as a result of the renewed lockdown in South Africa and across the globe, and with inflationary pressures remaining relatively subdued at 3,9% in 2021 from 3,3% in 2020, there is room for the repo rate to be cut by a further 0,25% over the next few months. However, the Monetary Policy Committee may err on the side of caution and opt to leave interest rates at current levels for longer due to the more uncertain growth outlook.

Nonetheless, the changes in lifestyle choices triggered by the repeated lockdowns, combined with the stable, low interest rates, suggest there will still be areas of robust activity, such as the R700 000 to R1,5-million price band which Lightstone has identified as the price bracket favoured by first-time buyers during 2020.

However, from a Pam Golding Properties

ABOVE: Gareth Bailey, Pam Golding Properties.

We continue to experience consistently busy activity in the price bands not only below, but also from R1,5-million upwards, including the luxury market in excess of R10-million

perspective, we continue to experience consistently busy activity in the price bands not only below, but also from R1,5-million upwards, including the luxury market in excess of R10-million.

Forecasting the likely level of activity in the local residential property market this year is unusually difficult. Areas which offer affordably priced homes – and an appealing lifestyle – are likely to prove most resilient in 2021. The aggressive 350 basis points cut in interest rates during the course of last year fundamentally altered the housing market in that it made homeownership accessible to many first-time buyers for the first time and also made ownership a viable option for many aspirant buyers who previously thought they could only afford to rent.

This would suggest that sectional title homes in traditionally expensive areas in major metros, and freehold homes in secondary cities, holiday, retirement and “Zoom” towns will prove to be more resilient and the ones that remain relatively affordable during tough economic times.

Furthermore, since property is an immoveable asset, these structural shifts in lifestyle are likely to result in excess stock supply in some areas and a shortage – and development potential – in others. *

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The problem with you,” I told my partner, “is that you don’t have enough faith in my abilities.”

“No,” said my partner patiently. “I am perfectly prepared to believe that you’re a glutton. I just don’t think you held the world record.”

“Well I did,” I said. “If you don’t believe me, you can ask my mom.”

I tried to maintain my air of worldbeating confidence, but I must say, the more I thought about it, the more I wondered if it was true. It couldn’t have been a dream, could it? Did I really, when I was 10 years old, break the Guinness World Record for eating a pie?

I desperately wanted to be good at something, but, as I had so far discovered, I wasn’t naturally very good at anything

It may seem unlikely, but I have a very clear memory of it: one day my mother brought back a quantity of chicken and mushroom pies from the tuck shop at the school where she taught, and lined them up in the kitchen, and stood there timing me with a stopwatch.

There were a number of pie records an aspiring champion could tackle. There was the stamina record, where you eat as many pies as you can in an hour, but I was too canny to try that. My 10-year-old belly was not as athletically developed as it is now – I would have been defeated by sheer volume. But speed and enthusiasm – there I had a shot.

I am SPECIAL

DID I REALLY BREAK THE WORLD RECORD FOR EATING A PIE? ACCORDING TO MY MOM I HAD, AND THAT MADE ME SPECIAL IN HER EYES, REMINISCES DARREL BRISTOW-BOVEY

The current world record for eating a standard-sized pie is 23,5 seconds, set by a professional pie-chomper named Martin Appleton-Clare in Wigan in 2012, so allowing for improvements in technology and training methods in the intervening decades, I am going to assume the record back then was a more manageable time of somewhere around a minute.

The first time I tried, I fell short of the mark, but my mother encouraged me not to be crestfallen. No one succeeds at the first go, she said, cleaning pie pastry and gravy from the floor, from the front of my T-shirt, from my face and hair. If it was easy, everyone would be doing it.

I took a short breather, then applied myself to the second pie. You’re getting closer, she said. Definitely closer! I was tempted to give up. If something didn’t come easy, was it worth anything at all? Also, I was quite full. Two pies in a row is quite a lot of pie. But my mom persuaded me that something means more when you’ve worked for it. Then it becomes something to be proud of.

I’d never thought of it that way. I’d spent my days studying a copy of the Guinness Book of World Records I’d received for Christmas, trying to decide which record to try to break, not sure where my natural talents lay. I desperately wanted to be good at something, but, as I had so far discovered, I wasn’t naturally very good at anything.

So I didn’t give up, and it’s strange – the third time felt like my slowest effort yet, but I still remember my mom’s look of excitement when she told me I’d done it! I’d broken the record! I’d worked hard and I’d done it! She was so proud of me!

It never became official, of course. You need special timekeepers and verification for that, but all through my childhood I knew I was good at something. I knew that if I tried hard enough, I could be special. I told my partner all this, and she was quiet for a while, and then she apologised for having doubted me. It’s true, she said. I am special.

“And so is your mom,” she said. *