REVIEW OF 2022 AND A LOOK AHEAD

Dr. Marin Bozic and Brian Walton, Bozic LLC

2022 U.S. Dairy Exports Hit Record

U.S. dairy exports hit new records in 2022, reaching 5.27 billion pounds of total solids exported (milkfat and skim solids content combined). This figure represents an increase of 5% from 2021, accounting for 17.8% of U.S. farm milk production. Mexico and Canada are the largest U.S. dairy export markets, representing over one-third of the $11 billion dollars of total U.S. dairy exports. China, Philippines, South Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Malaysia collectively account for approximately another one-third of total U.S. dairy export value, while the remaining third is spread out across dozens of other countries. A major milestone was passed in 2021, with U.S. dairy export sales (on a total solids annual basis) surpassing total U.S. fluid milk sales for the first time, likely the culmination of a long-term industry trend. The increased importance of dairy exports for the U.S. has been building for a long time due to a variety of market and policy factors, including the continued fifty-year decline in U.S. fluid milk sales and the more recent trend of increasing demand for dairy and protein in foreign markets. Long-term per capita GDP growth in many emerging markets and more open trade policies have also played a role in boosting U.S. dairy exports. As a result, U.S. dairy manufacturers have focused more of their attention on dairy products that are in high demand in foreign markets (cheese, nonfat dry milk (NDM), high protein whey products, lactose, and other milk powders rather than fluid milk).

U.S. promotional checkoff efforts, along with fluid milk product development, have done little to curb the long-term decline in per capita fluid milk sales domestically. One potential contributing factor is the proliferation of beverage choices available to consumers, where sports drinks, plant-based products, juices, soft drinks and flavored waters compete with milk for market share. While shifting beverage consumption patterns have presented challenges for dairy farmers who are in heavy Class I utilization areas that have traditionally relied on fluid milk sales, new opportunities have also been created for U.S. dairy producers to expand their milk production and enter new markets. In the Northeast FMMO, Class I milk utilization has fallen from 44% in the year 2000 to 30% in 2022. This trend coincides with Northeast FMMO producer price differentials (PPD) generally drifting lower in the past twenty years, with average PPD from 2000 to 2009 being $1.86 per cwt. and from 2010 to present averaging $1.49 per cwt. Approximately one day’s worth of U.S. farm milk production per week is currently being exported, which has roughly doubled over the past 15 years. Increasing U.S. dairy exports helps provide market outlets for the substantial U.S. milk production growth that would otherwise be difficult for domestic demand alone to absorb. Domestic demand for total milk solids has only grown by 1.2% on average annually in the past decade, while exports have increased an average of 5.2% annually. Additionally, U.S. population growth has been declining over the past few decades, with some estimates suggesting forward growth rates of only 0.4% to 0.5% annually. These figures highlight the increasing need for export growth. Going forward, it is expected that 40 to 60% of all additional US skim solids produced will need to be exported.

Exhibit 1 US Dairy Exports Total Sales

Rising Farm Exit Rates and Continued Consolidation

The dairy industry in the United States has generally experienced increasing annual exit rates for dairy farms in recent years, in part due to the “Baby Boom” generation reaching retirement and a lower desire among younger generations to take over family operations. Smaller operations continue to face challenging financial conditions, as economies of scale cannot be replicated for smaller herds. U.S. licensed dairy herds declined 6.4% in 2022 (to 27,932 operations), which is an acceleration of the 5.7% exit rate in 2021. Licensed dairy herds in New York dropped by 6.4% in 2022 (to 3,210 operations). Throughout the past 50 years in the U.S., the number of licensed dairy herds has declined by roughly half each decade. If this trend persists, U.S. operations could fall to around only 7,000 operations within 20 years. The inception of Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) has partially offset the attrition rates of smaller farms, allowing smaller operations of less than 200 cows to remain more financially viable. DMC payments were roughly $2.59 per cwt. at the tier 1 coverage level ($9.50) in 2021 and only $0.19 per cwt. in 2022. DMC payments are forecast to be near $2.00 per cwt. in 2023. The upcoming Farm Bill will be critical in ensuring safety net programs (such as DMC) remain in place for dairy producers. The consolidation of the dairy industry remains a continuing trend as cost of production estimates suggest $2.00 to $4.00 per cwt. cost advantage for large dairy farm operations.

Most of the new dairy operations being built are centered around Texas, Kansas, South Dakota and Idaho. Meanwhile, cooperatives have diminished in importance as a primary engine for growth, as most new capacity in the next few years are private projects. In many cases, smaller producers currently have limited opportunities to grow as many processors and cooperatives are employing supply management or quota programs. The overall trend of increasing dairy farm exit rates raises concerns about the long-term viability of small dairy operations and the possible negative impact on rural communities as more farms consolidate.

Exhibit 2

NY Licensed Dairy Farms and Annual Exit Rate

Record Butterfat Prices and Large Class IV Premium

Butter prices in the United States reached record highs in 2022, averaging $2.86 per pound for the year with a peak of $3.27 per pound. Structural demand changes within the last decade place more emphasis on healthier fats, such as butter, likely contributing to these price increases. An increasingly negative stigma has been attached to vegetable oils and margarine for health-conscious consumers, while butter markets have benefitted from the switch to what are perceived as more wholesome sources of fat in consumer diets. Additionally, U.S. butter production has been lagging, with 2022 butter output declining 0.7% from 2021. New plant capacity seems to be more focused on cheese production at the expense of butter/powder plants. Dairy producers at the farm level have continued to respond to higher butterfat prices over the last ten years by formulating feed rations to optimize fat content, with national average fat tests exceeding 4%. Class IV milk prices reached a new record high of $24.47/cwt, which was $2.52 above Class III milk prices during 2022. New York margins were strong overall in the first half of 2022 despite generally high operational costs.

Following large-scale trends in the overall economy, labor and general farm overhead costs continue to hit record levels as businesses struggle to find and retain workers. Higher feed costs in the past two crop years have also been challenging for many producers due to higher-than-normal drought impacts.

Exhibit 3

Annual Class IV Milk Price Minus Class III Milk Price

Key Trends Economic Outlook 2023

Many economists and media articles have been predicting a U.S. recession since mid-2022 when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates to combat inflation that was at its highest rate since the 1980s. In the span of just one year, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from near-0% to around 5%, marking one of the most aggressive Fed tightening cycles seen in the last forty years. Inflation exceeded 8% in 2022, sparking the Fed to dramatically shift its previous viewpoint that inflation was only transitory while recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. The numerous recession predictions during the start of the tightening cycle were perhaps a bit premature, but a potential economic slowdown in 2023 is likely still imminent. However, current economic indicators are not quite at recession levels, with labor markets remaining strong and GDP likely remaining positive in Q1 2023. Still, it is important to note that every recession begins looking like a ‘soft landing’ before economic downturns become more widespread. In general, the composition of the U.S. economy is increasingly service based, which tends be less cyclical. Almost 87% of jobs are in service sectors, compared to only 13% for the manufacturing and construction sectors where most recession-related job losses come from.

A few leading economic indicators have shown troubling signs over the past six months, with The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® forecasting mild recessionary levels. Leading indicators can show the direction or trend of the economy more clearly than employment or GDP numbers, which tend to lag and are often subject to revision.

Recent bank runs have also caused stress on the financial system, forcing the Treasury, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve to act to shore up confidence in the system. Credit conditions will also likely tighten, which could cause a drag on consumer spending. Many smaller regional banks saw plummeting deposits while other alternatives, such as T-bills or money market accounts, offered superior interest rates near 5% over simply storing cash in a bank account near 0%. In addition, regional banks are perceived to be less likely to be bailed out than the ‘too big to fail’ mega banks. The odds of a recession are certainly elevated for the remainder of 2023 compared to the baseline recession frequency of around 20% for any given year, with the consensus among economists placing the odds of a recession at around 50%. It is important to remember that unemployment is typically a lagging economic indicator that tends to rise more in the later stages of a recession. Thus, it is important to focus on leading indicators when forecasting a potential recession.