Climate change

How is the changing climate likely to impact farming and what can be done about it? Dr Pete Falloon, Climate Service Lead – Food, Farming and Natural Environment at the Met Office, explains

BACK in June, before the summer’s record-breaking heatwave and associated drought, I was delighted to address members of The Farmers Club here at the Met Office in Exeter, as part of the Devon Tour led by Club Chairman John Lee.

Understanding just how our climate forecasting can help the industry was top of the agenda. It was a fascinating few hours, for us all, and the good news is that there’s a lot that we know, and quite a lot that can be done.

The impact of climate and weather on farming was brought into sharp focus during July and August, when extended drought conditions prevailed, especially across southern England.

A Met Office study highlighted that the record breaking temperatures seen this summer would have been almost impossible before the pre-industrial era. And by 2100 temperatures of 40C or more could become reasonably regular, with some studies showing it could be seen every three years under the worst-case scenario.

With farming on the front line of climate change, I think we were all reminded of what may lie ahead.

Met Office Projections

The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases, the higher the potential for climate change. Currently scientists and policy makers are striving to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5C, compared with pre-industrial levels.

Climate projections for the UK suggest a broad pattern of hotter and drier summers on average, warmer and wetter winters, and more extreme events such as drought and heavy rainfall. However, high-resolution climate projections reveal considerable variation across the UK.

There are uncertainties within this broad perspective too, as we can’t guarantee what measures will be taken to curb further rises in greenhouse gas emissions.

Aggressive action to reduce emissions will limit future warming. But, importantly, enough warming has already taken place to see changes in our climate. So, a summer like we have just experienced is now locked into our atmosphere and can return in future years.

The priority now is to avoid the situation becoming worse, while learning to adapt to the level of change that is already built into the climate system. It’s also important to note that in the coming few decades we still expect to experience some cold winters and wet summers, because of the natural variability of the British climate.

Farming impacts

Year-to-year variability of weather means that each year farmers may struggle with extremes of temperature or extremes of rainfall. But throw a warming climate into the mix, then these struggles will compound problems – such as those we have seen this summer – to or beyond the limits of what current farming is able to contend with.

As an example of future climate impacts on farming, the Met Office examined UK climate projections to assess future risk of potato blight and heat stress for dairy cattle, for different regions.

The study shows that heat stress conditions for dairy cattle are met around two-to-three days per year in the South West, but in the period 2051-2070, this could extend to around one month per year, on average.

Over the same period, late potato blight – which affects crops in warm, humid weather – is likely to occur more often across the UK, with the greatest increases in western and northern regions.

What can be done?

Agriculture can play a key role in helping to curb greenhouse gas emissions. But farmers will also need to be ready to adapt to the changing climate and for what the future will bring.

Some of these adaptive measures require big decisions: for example, choosing the types of crops which can be grown in certain areas.

Alongside these large measures, other adaptive features are easier to accommodate. Livestock farmers may want to consider planting shade trees to lower heat stress on stock. Keeping hardstanding areas free-draining could prevent heavy downpours from leading to flooding. Or, to deal with dry summer conditions, they could increase on-farm water storage.

Policy drivers

Beyond this, for food production to be resilient to the changing climate, a wider body of research needs to be fed into policy and practice. For example, understanding the most effective management practices, or breeding heat and drought resilient crops.

The broader food chain is a complex series of activities, all the way from farm to fork, and each activity could be impacted in some way by climate change. The UK food chain includes many different actors across farming, supply chains, industry and government. So there is a need to take a strategic system level approach, which includes all aspects of the chain, in responding to climate change to maintain food security and support a climateresilient future.

The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment used the latest climate predictions from the Met Office to look at the risks and opportunities for the UK. The mind findings related to food and agriculture can be found on-line at: https://www.ukclimaterisk.org/ independent-assessment-ccra3/briefings/

If you’d like to understand what climate change might mean for your local area, why not try the BBC’s interactive checker, which was developed in partnership with the Met Office – just search on-line for “What will climate change look like near me?”

DR PETE FALLOON FRMetS FRSA

Climate Service Lead for Food, Farming & Natural Environment Met Office, Exeter pete.falloon@metoffice.gov.uk

AGRICULTURE AND FOOD BRIEFING

Findings from the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3) Evidence Report 2021

ukclimaterisk.org AGRICULTURE AND FOOD

This briefing summarises how agriculture and food have been assessed in the latest UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) Technical Report, and what types of action to adapt to climate change risks and opportunities would be beneficial in the next five years.

AG & FOOD BRIEFING

The briefing summarises how agriculture and food have been assessed in the 2021 UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA3), and what types of action to adapt to climate change risks and opportunities would be beneficial in the next five years. It considers two climate change scenarios, corresponding to approximately a 2°C or a 4°C rise in global temperature by 2100.