One last word …

Any old timer in the dairy industry will tell you of the cyclic nature of the payout forecast.

Terms like “what goes up must come down” and endless talk of “dairy industry volatility” are trotted out in moments such as those that the industry is going through right now.

This is the third such major down cycle in the dairy payout I have seen in my time as a journalist – 2008, 2015 and now this one.

Each one has had its own unique set of circumstances at the fringes, but at the heart of the matter lies the simple fact that as an exporter, we’re at the mercy of what happens in overseas markets.

When supply is high, demand falls and the price falls and unfortunately there’s no getting around that. It’s not a situation unique to dairy; the whole of the agricultural economy is hurting as it battles falling commodity prices and input price inflation.

Every time it happens, the sector digs in and tries to ride it out the best it can. I’m reminded of Jack Cocks’s 2021 Kellogg Rural Leadership study on how resilient farmers can thrive in the face of adversity. He came up with a pretty simple model that is a useful base to work from. If you imagine a pyramid with the base centred on keeping well – in other words, what you need in life to be happy and content. This can be anything from exercise to celebrating and enjoying the little things.

Sitting above that is connections, which he calls the glue holding it together: family, friends, communities and networks. These connections are the people in our lives who often buoy us up and encourage us to achieve, to rise above in times of adversity, he says.

Sitting at the top is purpose – the reason farmers do what they do and why they do it.

The work was based on five farmer participants used as case studies.

It also found that the six common characteristics across these participants were that they are driven people, high achievers, emotionally intelligent, unrelentingly positive, grateful and humble.

While it can all come across as a bit touchy-feely, many of its points hit home whenever you hear farmers or industry experts at farmer meetings or field days to talk about the effects of a low payout and what can be done to get through it. Indeed, some variation if not all of these themes come forward.

Cocks’s study also found that rural professionals supporting farmers need a clear understanding of not only the causes of adversity, but some of the strategies and techniques they can use to be resilient.

I’d like to think this is largely being done through levy-paying bodies such as DairyNZ. You only have to recall its Tight Times campaign or the drought meetings it has undertaken over the years when things turn tough.

But now is the time to get full use out of those organisations that farmers pay for through levies or as members, be it DairyNZ, Farmstrong or Federated Farmers, as well as supply companies, banks and consultants. Even the farm support team at the Ministry for Primary Industries can play a role here.

If we all work together and look out for each other, we should get through this time of adversity.

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