Sector weighs final CCC report

FARMERS WEEKLY – farmersweekly.co.nz – June 14, 2021 7 Sector weighs final CCC report

Colin Williscroft colin.williscroft@globalhq.co.nz

PRIMARY sector response to the Climate Change Commission’s final recommendations to the Government has been lukewarm, with concerns about some of the demands going to be placed on farmers and growers.

DairyNZ chief executive Tim Mackle says a 10% reduction in biogenic methane will be a big ask, but the industry is committed to playing its part and reducing emissions alongside the rest of the economy.

“We are pleased the goalposts haven’t shifted from the Zero Carbon Act and farmers now have the certainty they need to make long-term investment decisions,” Mackle said.

“It is now up to the Government to deliver a credible emissions reduction plan for New Zealand – and the investment in tools and support required to achieve it.”

Mackle says DairyNZ agrees with the commission that NZ urgently needs a long-term plan for R&D investment from industry and government “to help us rise to the challenge”.

However, he remains concerned that agriculture will be asked to do the heavy lifting if there is not urgent action to reduce CO2 emissions.

Mackle says the recommended levels of carbon removed by trees is still too high and will lead to swathes of NZ sheep and beef farmland being converted to pine trees.

“It’s critical there are strict limits on the amount of offsetting fossil fuel emitters can do by planting exotic trees,” he said.

Beef + Lamb NZ chief executive Sam McIvor says the commission’s advice is encouraging about the need to cut gross CO2 emissions, but the predicted need to plant “far too many” exotic trees on productive farmland is a worry.

“While we still need to carefully read 400-odd pages of the final advice, we support the commission telling the Government that NZ must reduce its reliance on forestry offsets, in particular from pinus radiata,” McIvor said.

“However, the recommended levels of carbon removed by trees is still too high and will lead to swathes of NZ sheep and beef farmland being converted to pine trees.

“This will have significant negative impacts for sheep and beef farming and rural communities with knock-on effects for every NZ household.

“B+LNZ welcomes the commission’s strengthened advice on the need to change the NZ Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) to manage afforestation, which is something we have been advocating for, and the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment also recommended in his submission.

“B+LNZ asks the Government for specific policy proposals on this as a matter of urgency,” he said.

HortNZ chief executive Mike Chapman is pleased the commission has increased its estimate of how much land could be converted to horticulture, from 2000ha a year to 3500ha a year.

He says if horticulture can expand more, it will reduce some of the emission reductions required by other parts of the primary sector, and also reduce reliance on forestry offset, which the commission acknowledges ultimately passes the responsibility for achieving reductions to future generations.

“The report recognises that in order for horticulture to achieve its full potential, investment will be needed to remove barriers such as water availability and access to labour,” Chapman said.

Federated Farmers says the advice needs to be backed up with significant investment in improving access to science and technology on-farm, and the people needed to operate it.

President Andrew Hoggard says Feds are wary of any policy direction that assumes tougher regulation will force behaviour change.

“To expect landowners to make land-use changes based on the weight of regulation they face, rather than market forces, is unreliable and unlikely to deliver lasting improvements,” Hoggard said.

He says farmers and growers are feeling slammed by regulation changes, uncertain international markets and desperate labour force shortages.

“It would have been heartening for us to see the commission acknowledge these pressures and recommend non-regulatory solutions,” he said.

“Now we will wait to see if the Government’s emissions response plan, due by the end of the year, can take us further together without slamming farmers and growers even harder.”

National Party agriculture spokesperson David Bennett says if the Government follows the commission’s advice it will place a lot of pressure on farmers.

Bennett says although the advice is only recommendations, the reality is meeting the goals will require a lot of change in a very short period of time.

He says the commission’s own modelling of an expected 13% drop in dairy cow numbers by 2030 is a huge reduction in nine years.

“That’s not going to happen easily and some will go out of farming,” Bennett said.

He says the implications are also significant for sheep and beef farmers, particularly around land use as the demand for land to turn into forestry is likely to continue.

This will have significant negative impacts for sheep and beef farming and rural communities with knockon effects for every NZ household.

Sam McIvor B+LNZ

CAUSE FOR CONCERN : Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard says they are wary of any policy direction that assumes tougher regulation will force behaviour change.

FARMERS WEEKLY – farmersweekly.co.nz – June 14, 2021 9 Foresters wary of CCC advice

Richard Rennie richard.rennie@globalhq.co.nz

FOREST owners are concerned about the Climate Change Commission (CCC) hinting growth in exotic forest plantings will detract from New Zealand’s efforts to reduce gross emissions, and the commission’s preference for more native plantings.

In its recommendations to the Government, the commission has maintained NZ should continue with the original recommendation to plant 300,000ha of native trees between now and 2035, along with 380,000ha of new exotics.

However, the commission emphasises a reliance upon exotic forests as carbon sinks beyond this level could divert action away from reducing gross emissions in other sectors.

The report found if carbon prices move over $50 a tonne it would encourage more exotic forestry to be planted, possibly sequestering 8.5 million tonnes of CO2 in 2050, more than required, and overplanting when other options would exist to reduce gross emissions.

The commission has hinted at reducing demand for forestry units, or requiring an additional fee when surrendering forestry units.

It also reiterates that new natives could provide an enduring carbon sink to help offset residual long-lived emissions from hard to abate sectors over the longerterm.

The commission acknowledged the high number of submissions it received supporting native forest establishment, while also acknowledging some submissions were concerned exotic afforestation was occurring at a faster rate than many were aware of.

But Forest Owners Association president Phil Taylor says NZ’s planted forest area has already fallen by 40,000ha in the past two years, meaning now was not the time to suggest putting the brakes on future plantings.

“After more than a decade, the ETS has only just begun to work the way it is meant to. That is to incentivise emissions’ reduction. It is a strange time to pull it back,” Taylor said.

He says failing to achieve the net emission reductions expected using trees in the coming 30 years will only push tougher cuts onto industry, transport and agriculture.

NZ Farm Forestry president Graham West says owners of farmland who are considering planting exotic woodlots may be given pause for thought by the commission’s caution on exotics.

“What we are saying is ‘hold on, please do not put in any more regulations’. The uncertainty around ETS regulations is already making a lot of people stand back from it, just as it is getting going,” West said.

He says banks are hesitant to lend on farm forestry projects, due to uncertainty over carbon cashflow, in turn linked to government policy.

“No one has confidence, with the exception of speculators, they are ploughing ahead and planting wall to wall,” he said.

“If the Government seeks a mosaic of planting types, they need to incentivise Mum and Dad farmers to plant 20-50ha themselves.”

He is doubtful that at this point planting rates for exotic or natives are likely to rise at all, except by speculators.

He also challenged the cost effectiveness of native sequestration that the commission’s own figures highlight.

“They quote costs of up to $50,000 a hectare to establish natives. On a cost per tonne of carbon sequestered natives are high, at about $100 a tonne, compared to only $19-$20/tonne for exotics,” he said.

The commission does acknowledge the valuable role exotics play in early-stage sequestration of carbon, and how older exotic forests could aid a transition to native forests over time.

West says he was heartened to see the commission recognises a need for greater support to help landowners get forests established.

“The Government has been asked to encourage additional carbon storage in smaller blocks of trees on farms.

“We hope to see that implemented with some sort of grants scheme,” he said.

Taylor also welcomed the commission’s wish for better pest control and while aimed mainly at native forest planting, it would still hold benefits for exotic forest owners.

He says he was also pleased to see the Government has already appeared to have abandoned its ideas of trying to restrict planting forests on better classes of land, where a quarter of the current national estate is already growing.

“It is also important to realise the forest contribution to fighting climate change is not confined to trees themselves, but the downstream use of timber and wood products,” Taylor said.

“The commission’s reference to forests’ role in a thriving lowemissions bio-economy is hugely important for environmental and economic reasons.”

He says this includes the Government’s Wood First construction policy, employing NZ timber where possible.

The commission has recommended that by the end of next year the government should have developed incentives for native forest plantings and proposals for managing the amount of exotic forest plantings inspired by ETS.

DECLINE: Forest Owners Association president Phil Taylor says the country’s forested area is already down 40,000ha before climate planting programmes even begin.

What we are saying is ‘hold on, please do not put in any more regulations’. The uncertainty around ETS regulations is already making a lot of people stand back from it, just as it is getting going.

Graham West NZ Farm Forestry

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