Aussie beef to stiffen competition

After a balmy two years when NZ producers had much of the beef export market to themselves, a lift in Australian production is about to complicate matters

NEW Zealand beef exports have been enjoying less competition from across the Tasman for the past two years as Australian producers concentrated on rebuilding their beef herd amid favourable conditions.

But, while overseas demand for beef remains positive, a lift in export competition from Australia is inevitable with likely implications for NZ beef. Australia’s rebuild has been so successful, its national cattle herd is forecast to reach its highest level since 2014, inflating to 28.8 million head by June 30. Only three years ago herd numbers were down as low as 24.6 million head. Ultimately this leads to increased beef production and therefore higher availability of Australian beef in global markets.

Meat and Livestock Australia (MLA) is projecting that 2023 Australian beef exports will push over 1 million tonnes. This follows two low years through the herd rebuilding phase, when exports struggled to reach 900,000t. It’s no coincidence that through that period of low Australian beef exports, NZ beef performed favourably, relishing the lower competition within global markets.

This spike in Australian beef exports won’t be a one-off. Forecasts point to exports holding above 1 million tonnes in 2024 and 2025. Supporting this forecast is the assumption that by 2025 the national cattle herd is forecast to reach 29.6 million head, the highest level since the 1970s. Whether increased beef export competition happens this year or next will be determined by the capacity of Australia’s meat processors to manage an increase in supply.

With such bullish growth to herd numbers, Australia is set to benefit from ample cattle supply even at the finishing end. MLA forecasts that a total of 6.625 million head of cattle will be slaughtered this year, up almost 500,000 head on last year. But this will only come to fruition if Australian processors have the labour force available to