29 minute read

Riparian planting project grows

Colin Williscroft colin.williscroft@globalhq.co.nz

FARMER-LED freshwater improvement projects, like the one enhancing the Manawatu River near its source, have gained financial support from the latest round of funding from the Manawatu River Leaders Accord.

So far we have planted more than 10,000 plants and done two sessions with Norsewood and Districts School about the awa and local fish life.

Arapera Paewai Te Karu Hapu Collective

The Manawatu River Road enhancement and access project, jointly run by Norsewood dairy farmers Blair and Penelope Drysdale and Te Karu Hapu Collective, received a grant for the third year running to continue planting and enhancing the river near its source and enable public access for community and school groups.

The funding for phase three of the project will go towards more plants and weed control, as well as work on developing a parking area for buses that bring school and other groups to the location.

The project started when the Drysdales moved to the area from Pahiatua in 2018 after buying the property they now farm.

After initially concentrating their riparian planting around the farm, they decided to widen their focus to the banks of the river that forms one of the farm boundaries.

They were put in touch with Te Kauru Hapu Collective project administrator and coordinator Arapera Paewai and together, with the help of local school children and community volunteers, they have planted thousands of native plants across about eight hectares so far.

Penelope says she and Blair were passionate about native plants before they arrived in the area and one of the farm’s goals is to help regenerate a thriving ecosystem, so the project just made sense.

Many of the plants have come from Kauri Park nursery in Palmerston North, although the plan is to establish their own small nursery on the farm to grow infill plants.

Paewai says it’s a special project that has brought together the whole community.

“So far we have planted more than 10,000 plants and done two sessions with Norsewood and Districts School about the awa (river/stream) and local fish life,” Paewai said.

SHELTER: The area also features an information whare, which was installed as part of the Tu Te Manawa project. TEAMWORK:Penelope and Blair Drysdale, with children Bille, six, and Joe, four, with Arapera Paewai, in some of the earlier native plantings that are part of the Manawatu River Road enhancement and access project.

“The banks of the awa were infested with blackberry, broom and cotoneaster, of which we have cleared 4-5 kilometres.

“There is a completely different atmosphere around the awa now with the community, hapu and schools able to park and walk down to explore, do water monitoring and reconnect with their awa.”

Nine projects were awarded about $89,000 in grants between them in the latest funding round.

The Manawatu River Leaders’ Accord runs a contestable community funding programme once a year with the support of Horizons Regional Council. In 2018 the fund was expanded with help from the Manawatu District Council and the Ministry for the Environment (MfE), through the Freshwater Improvement Fund.

Horizons group manager natural resources and partnerships Dr Jon Roygard says the grants aim to assist non-profit organisations such as community groups, schools, catchment care groups and iwi/hapu with projects that will help increase engagement with Manawatu catchment waterways and improve water quality.

Farmers leading the way

OTHER farmer-led freshwater improvement projects financially supported by the latest round of Manawatu River Leaders Accord community grants included the following initiatives.

Seeing, understanding and believing: KapAg managing director Terry Parminter is facilitating a project within the Nguturoa Stream catchment near Linton, where farm plans are being developed and water sampling is occurring, among other things. The funding will enable community meetings and workshops to share information and lessons learnt from sampling.

Source of Kiwitea: Mike and Lindsay Will have retired the head of a sub-catchment in the Kiwitea area and are undertaking planting and pest control work to restore the gully head back into native vegetation. It is the second year this project, which involves the local school and community, has been awarded funding.

Waoku Stream Restoration Project: For riparian fencing and planting work along this waterway in the Koputaroa catchment, with the support of the landowner Daniel Okano.

Nguturoa Stream Restoration Project: For riparian enhancement work including fencing, planting and weed control. This aligns with the wider project that is being undertaken in the catchment with the local community. Sites for restoration work will be identified through this larger project work.

Bioreactor and wetland development at Te Maunga Farms: To construct a bioreactor and further investigate the wetland design. Te Maunga Farms is part of the Upper Manawatu catchment group and is keen to share its findings with the local community and other farmers. The project is also supported by Massey University.

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News Pest control bid rejected

Colin Williscroft colin.williscroft@globalhq.co.nz

AN APPLICATION to prevent a possum control programme on a block of land in Hawke’s Bay has been dismissed in the Maori Land Court.

Last year an Ospri-backed control programme on the 15,000-hectare Tataraakina C block was put on hold after trust member Nigel Baker applied to the court for an injunction preventing what was described as further damage and injury to the block and associated wahi tapu sites.

Baker opposed a proposal by Clinton Hemana, the Tataraakina C Trust’s responsible trustee, designed to control bovine TB emerging from the block.

The proposal had two parts: firstly ground control in the western and eastern areas of the block where overgrown tracks would be cleared and secondly, an aerial drop of 1080 over the remainder of the block, which is difficult to access by ground.

Baker objected to the track clearing because of the impact that would have on areas of cultural significance.

He was also concerned that 1080 would harm Tataraakina’s environment, with waterways, fish and birds poisoned by the drop.

He says the proposed poisoning would breach the terms of the Nga Whenua Rahui Covenant and that there was an overwhelming lack of support from the block owners for the proposal.

Instead, he called for a landbased trapping programme.

Ospri subsidiary TBfree’s chief adviser Mark Neill told the court that using only ground-based control methods in the area over 10 years would cost more than $22 million. A sole aerial programme over the same timeframe would cost about $2m, while a combined aerial and ground approach, like the one proposed, would be about $6.7m for the same period.

In his recently released reserved decision, Chief Judge Wilson Isaac noted that two previous applications – in 2004 and 2009 – for an injunction to stop planned aerial 1080 operations were unsuccessful.

In 2004 the court found that a clause in the trust’s order gave trustees the authority to deal with the land as if they were the absolute owners and that the Nga Whenua Rahui Covenant did not prohibit the distribution of 1080 on the land.

Isaac says nothing has substantially changed in the trust deed or covenant since the previous application.

“The Trustee is acting lawfully and within the powers of the Trust and the Kawenata (covenant). There has been no unlawful act to cause injury to the land in terms of the trust or the Kawenata and the application must therefore fail,” he said.

In assessing the impact of the proposal on the environment, Isaac says the Nga Whenua Rahui Trust favoured Hemana’s proposal on the basis that the benefits of a 1080 aerial drop are well established, and that the current Hawke’s Bay TB outbreak is a serious matter and must be addressed and effectively controlled.

It is confident that, given the terrain of the block, aerial distribution of 1080 is the most effective technique.

Isaac says it’s also important to acknowledge that Hemana did

POISON: The proposed pest control programme will target possums by using 1080. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

These owners emphasised the combined effort required across the board for the eradication of pests to stamp out bovine TB throughout Hawke’s Bay.

Chief Judge Wilson Isaac Maori Land Court

not accept Ospri’s preferred aerial approach to pest control on the Tataraakina C block, and instead looked for a solution that would not only be environmentallyfriendly, but also protect wahi tapu on the block, resulting in the combined aerial and groundbased approach.

Baker’s submission that there was overwhelming dissent by the block’s owners also failed to satisfy Isaac, who said at a special meeting held in August 2020, of the block’s 1143 listed owners, 18 voted against the proposal and 15 voted for it.

“The trustee must consider what will be in the best interest of all owners, not just those who vote,” he said.

“The Court has heard comprehensive evidence from owners and representatives of both Tataraakina C and neighbouring blocks who have indicated their support for the aerial drop proposal.

“These owners emphasised the combined effort required across the board for the eradication of pests to stamp out bovine TB throughout Hawke’s Bay.”

Isaac noted that this was the third application of its kind to injunct the trustee from exercising their powers under the trust order.

“Should there be another application, there will be an order for security for costs before that application proceeds,” he said.

Ospri general manager of service delivery (North Island) Daniel Schmidt says Ospri was not party to the court proceedings, but it acknowledged the court’s decision and continues to work proactively with the trust on the next steps to prevent the further spread of TB.

“We remain vigilant and concerned about TB in Hawke’s Bay and we will continue to undertake ground-control operations to manage the risk of TB spreading in the region and to reduce the number of infected herds,” Schmidt said.

It is not clear when the Tataraakina C block control programme will begin, but in response to a question about whether it would be delayed until winter when there would be less food available for possums so they would be more likely to take poisoned bait, Schmidt says the effectiveness of control operations in the area is not significantly affected by season and available food supply for possums.

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News More ag challenges ahead

Neal Wallace neal.wallace@globalhq.co.nz

AGRICULTURE has performed well during the covid-19 pandemic, but briefing papers to the incoming Cabinet ministers warns the outlook is challenging.

Most primary sector businesses were deemed essential and continued to operate during last year’s alert levels three and four, while also maintaining the confidence of New Zealand consumers.

But the pandemic has created what the briefing notes call “significant challenges.”

These include operation and production constraints due to safe operating practices, supply chain disruptions, falling and changeable demand across markets, especially foodservice, and the inability to access critical foreign workers.

The assessment is included in briefings to Primary Industries and Land Information Minister Damien O’Connor, Environment Minister David Parker, Forestry Minister Stuart Nash and Climate Change Minister James Shaw.

The papers warn the global recession will weaken consumer demand and soften prices affecting agricultural production and trade volumes unevenly, “with uncertain timing and magnitude.”

“Despite this uncertain and challenging outlook, the agriculture sector’s performance over the past few decades through several shocks and downturns suggests it will play a critical role to NZ’s economic resilience and recovery, as it has done previously,” the brief said.

The sector is on the road to becoming more environmentally sustainable and the Government’s focus needs to be supporting the implementation of land use practices to protect the climate, water, soil and biodiversity.

“Change is well underway within the agriculture sector, including on the focus areas of climate change and freshwater,” it said.

The briefing documents also reveal O’Connor faces further unspecified decisions

Despite this uncertain and challenging outlook, the agriculture sector’s performance over the past few decades through several shocks and downturns suggests it will play a critical role to NZ’s economic resilience and recovery.

on the operation of the Taratahi Agricultural Centre, which was placed in liquidation in December 2018.

Similarly, Parker faces decisions on the allocation of freshwater resources.

The size of the agricultural sector is also detailed.

Agriculture employs 283,000 people or one job in nine; sustains 60,000 enterprises; generates $40 billion in export revenue, which has grown at 4% a year since 2010, while occupying 26.8m ha, about half NZ’s land mass.

The dominance of log exports was graphically illustrated in the briefing on the forestry sector.

In 2009, 25% of forestry exports were sold as logs, and that increased to 55% in 2019, with China buying 80% of all forestry exports.

Domestic wood processing has remained flat with the number of mills shrinking from 252 in 2006 to 150 in 2019.

The area of new exotic forestry is increasing.

In 2019, 22,000ha was planted, equivalent to 0.3% of the area of sheep and beef land, with planting concentrated on several districts with cheap, less productive land.

“At a national level, afforestation is projected to continue,” the document stated.

“Under current policy settings, MPI projects between 0.74 and 1.46 million ha of additional afforestation out to 2050.

“This could offset between 26% and 51% of projected gross emissions in 2050.”

MPI director general Ray Smith warns forestry planting incentives have grown NZ’s carbon sink, but its role in meeting climate targets will become limited and still require economy-wide emission reductions.

Environment taxes considered by Govt

Treasury is due to report on the effectiveness of 2018 changes to the Overseas Investment Act which streamlines the land purchasing process for foreign forestry investors, and a decision is due this year on whether to continue with the billion trees planting incentive programme.

Smith’s briefing singles out initiatives requiring further work such as the Sustainable Food and Fibre Futures fund, efforts to resurrect the use of strong wool, working with Maori, growing trade, the He Waka Eke Noa agreement to cut agricultural greenhouse gases, and emissions trading and action on freshwater.

The briefing on rural communities states that the 2017 reintroduction of the Rural Communities portfolio has increased the scope of MPI’s commitment to primary industries to include a rural proofing policy lens when considering Government policy.

MPI is reviewing the rural proofing policy and will report to Cabinet in June.

Also in June, MPI expects to complete a review into recovery assistance decisions for farmers following climatic events,

WARNING: The briefing papers to the incoming Cabinet ministers warn the global recession will weaken consumer demand and soften prices affecting agricultural production and trade volumes unevenly.

natural disasters and biosecurity incursions.

Two rural community policies that will be a focus are improving internet connectivity and support for mental health and wellness.

The briefing document acknowledges communities will need additional help from the effects of land use change which could lead to the loss of jobs, services and social cohesion.

“There is an opportunity to work with and alongside rural communities to identify how community aspirations for the future can be realised,” it said.

“Identifying what matters to each community allows us to respond to challenges by considering specific mitigations, including potentially publiclyfunded investments.”

The Crown Pastoral Land Reform Bill, which will end the tenure review of Crown Pastoral Lease Land, is still before a select committee.

The briefing from Land Information NZ (LINZ) says if the bill proceeds and tenure review is ended, a consequence will be that the Crown will be a longterm owner of 1.2m ha of the South Island and landlord to 165 pastoral lessees.

Colin Williscroft colin.williscroft@globalhq.co.nz

FARMERS have long feared the cost of agriculture being included in the Emissions Trading Scheme, but they may also have to deal with a future tax on waterways pollution.

Environment Minister David Parker picked up the revenue portfolio when Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced her Cabinet appointments following the election.

Treasury’s briefing papers to the incoming Minister of Revenue lists the development of environmental taxes as one of three pieces of tax stewardship and strategic issues it has underway.

The papers say that New Zealand currently collects a very low share of revenue from environmental taxes and that the Treasury is involved in developing a cross-agency framework for that form of tax.

Environmental taxes are also mentioned in the Inland Revenue briefing papers.

They say one of the key issues in the Tax Policy Work Programme to be considered during the next 18 months is the role of environmental taxes and what an environmental tax framework should look like.

An update report to ministers was planned for late last year, with a consultation document expected in 2021.

SWAG is ready

to tackle 2021 STRENGTH: SWAG chair Rob Hewett says securing important industry funding puts it in

a strong position to execute the essential strategy it

Annette Scott already familiar to sheep and beef farmers. has developed.annette.scott@globalhq.co.nz “We are keen not to reinvent the wheel,” Hewett THE Strong Wool Action Group (SWAG) tasked SWAG is working closely with the Government with lifting New Zealand’s strong wool industry out and financial support from the Ministry for of the doldrums has kick started the new year on a Primary Industries’ (MPI) Sustainable Food and positive footing. Fibre Futures (SFFF) has substantially amplified

Since putting the call out in November for what it can achieve. financial support, industry contributions have now reached more than $500,000.

SWAG, established and incorporated late last year, is targeting a $3 million working budget to fund identified opportunities that will increase the demand and value of NZ produced strong wool.

The company aims to raise $700,000, matched with the Ministry for Primary Industries’ (MPI) funding, will secure a total operational budget of about $3m. Key seed funding was initially secured from five major meat processing companies with Protect your ewes. Improve your contributions over recent weeks from many national wool interest groups putting the company on track to achieve its $700,000 funding target. lambing performance* .

Several larger farming operations have all come on board.

“We are very pleased with progress, we are moving with pace and everything is gearing up for the new year this week,” SWAG chair Rob Hewett said.

“Securing this important industry funding puts us in a strong position to execute the essential strategy we have developed and is a reassuring vote of confidence in SWAG’s strategic approach.”

San Francisco-based IDEO, a global research company creating change through design thinking, has been appointed to undertake consumer lead research in the US as the first stage of the company’s “outside in” strategic approach.

The research work stream will commence this week with the project expected to be complete by the end of March.

Hewett says there is a lot to understand and learn from how the covid era has impacted on consumer behaviour.

“We will work with their project team to ensure we capture and clearly understand the market insights,” he said.

The second stage of the strategy will be about interpreting the IDEO research and building specific business cases that are desirable, feasible and viable, and can achieve scalability in their use of NZ strong wool on a global basis.

“A number of these initiatives are already underway in NZ and with SWAG’s input, we want to amplify their effort and pathways to market,” he said.

“We have thrown the boomerang up and we are waiting for it to come back.”

SWAG is in the advanced stages of recruiting a business analyst who will be responsible for developing specific business cases to the point of being ready for new industry-commercial investment.

This work will commence in late April.

The importance of a wool accreditation scheme responsive to increasing consumer demands for sustainable brands offering traceability, animal CONTROL THE RISK OF TOXOPLASMA CONTROL THE RISK OF CAMPYLOBACTER welfare accountability, environmental impact, and said. land management, is being considered as a point Toxoplasma is present on 100% of New Zealand farms, and Campylobacter on 88%1 - but both are equally of differentiation for NZ strong wools, which can important. These two diseases can cause abortion storms with losses up to 30%, or more, of lambs*2,3 . also deliver price premiums for growers. The accreditation scheme will be complimentary to and leverage off the Farm Assurance programme Preventing them takes two vaccines. Maiden ewes require 1 dose of Toxovax Campyvax®4 ahead of mating. ® and 2 doses of An annual booster of Campyvax4 to mixed age ewes is required in following years.

Protect against abortion storms, and improve fl ock performance.

Carbon market to escalate in 2021

Richard Rennie richard.rennie@globalhq.co.nz

THE new year promises to bring intense activity to New Zealand’s carbon trading market with new auction activity and investor interest picking up fast. 2020 closed off with NZ carbon units surging to a new high at $38.10 a unit, well ahead of the year’s starting point of $28.60 and significantly above the prelockdown low of $22.10.

With the price cap of $25/unit lifted to $35 mid-year, analysts are anticipating the values will continue to surge further still.

The CommTrade carbon trading platform has best offers for April next year at $38.90, rising to $41.05 by April 2024.

But analysts maintain prices may yet move beyond the $50/unit mark, as market dynamics shift this year with the Government entering the market with quarterly auctions of additional carbon units.

Carbon trading company Carbon Match’s director Lizzie Chambers says now that the market price has been above $35 a unit on a sustained basis, large unit holders will be inclined to roll them forward rather than quit them, while the auctions introduce another level of tension to prices.

“Three years ago we were in a $20 a unit market and now we have seen units change hands at more than $38 a unit, it’s been an incredible run,” Chambers said.

A couple of factors have driven up prices in the past year.

“Forest owners are simply not as keen to sell their units. They are tending to hold onto them, and often owners include investors with diverse portfolios who see the very low return they will earn if the money is only in bank deposits,” she said.

“Meanwhile, we’ve seen likes of Financial Times describing carbon prices as a ‘one-way bet’.”

The NZ scheme remains a domestic-only market, but with the Government set to become the biggest actor in that market with the introduction of quarterly auctions soon, Chambers says volatility is likely to increase.

Three years ago we were in a $20 a unit market, and now we have seen units change hands at more than $38 a unit, it’s been an incredible run.

Lizzie Chambers Carbon Match

To date, supply to the 10-yearold market has been dominated by forest owners.

Another factor contributing to tight supply and higher prices is tough new penalties for miscalculating forestry carbon liabilities or inaccurate emissions returns. These are prompting many landowners to hang onto carbon units.

In addition, she says greater awareness of the need to deal with global warming, and carbon credits as an instrument to help that has become more ingrained and more politically mainstream in NZ.

The result over the past few years has been an almost doubling of carbon prices in the New Zealand Emission Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) .

A so-called cost containment reserve also comes into play this year with the $50/unit mark a trigger to prompt the Government to add more units to the market to help dampen prices.

However, Chambers says if bidders are prepared to pay over $50/unit at auction there is nothing to stop the values surging further.

“It only takes one big entity to turn up and corner the market. But no one will know where the auction will clear until the auction is over,” she said.

The volume of units surrendered under the ETS last year was approximately 40 million units, with about 20% of those purchased from the Government at the fixed price option that moved from $25 a unit to $35 a unit for 2020 liabilities.

By contrast, the scheduled auction volume to be sold quarterly throughout the 2021 year will be 19 million units, a considerable percentage of expected annual compliance demand.

“We are likely to see the market become more volatile, and depending upon who turns up, the auctions could well be a catalyst for higher prices,” she said.

Chambers says while agriculture is outside the ETS for now, it could change in the future, and rising carbon values only create greater opportunity for dry-stock land to drop out of use and into carbon forestry.

She hoped the future of forestry’s role in government policy on carbon reduction would become clearer in February

GROWTH: Carbon Match director Lizzie Chambers says NZ’s carbon market is likely to continue heading upwards.

with the Climate Change Commissioner’s report due then.

OM Financial director of commodities for carbon trade Nigel Brunel says while it can be difficult to compare international carbon units, NZ’s do appear relatively cheap on the world stage.

European units are priced at about 33 Euros a unit ($55.76).

He says with the Paris Accord in play and the requirements it brings on carbon reduction, it was likely prices would continue to rise.

Ultimately there may be a linking of units between countries, providing further upside to NZ unit value.

This is, however, dependent upon Article 6 of the accord coming into play, requiring an accounting framework for international linking of emissions trading between two or more countries.

He says farmers considering planting trees for carbon could grow it for about $25 a tonne, so prospects for profitable returns were good in this environment.

Graham West of Bay of Plenty Farm Forestry says in general farmers were not that well informed about the carbon opportunities available, with wariness from farmer groups and less than complete communications from the forestry sector itself.

“With investors like the NZ Carbon Forests involved it is signalling to farmers the smart money is seeing opportunities in carbon,” West said.

He has been working with dairy farmers who are starting to realise emissions need to be dealt with.

“There are some early adopters in this area. We have run some days on how permanent forestry could offer some opportunities,” he said.

Winter grazing costs rise

Neal Wallace neal.wallace@globalhq.co.nz

WINTER grazing prices for dairy cows are rising in Southland and Otago as farmers make changes to meet new freshwater regulations.

Adapting to those new regulations does not appear to have caused a reduction in graziers for the coming winter, but an Invercargill farm consultant warns that may not be the case in future, as they will require resource consent and face more stringent conditions.

“In the medium to longterm there is going to be pressure on dairy winter grazing,” AgriBusiness Ltd farm management consultant Deane Carson said.

The regulations were announced in September and some of the winter grazing policies have already been reviewed by a governmentappointed working group which made recommendations prior to Christmas.

A government spokesperson says ministers have welcomed the group’s report and are awaiting further advice from officials, which will be considered early this year.

Carson says it was too early to accurately quantify dairy cow wintering costs for the coming year, but farming leaders have heard of increases for the coming winter of up to $1.50 per cow per week.

Otago Federated Farmers dairy

Hugh Stringleman hugh.stringleman@globalhq.co.nz

ANZ Bank has begun 2021 with an increase of 50c in its forecast of this season’s farm gate milk price, now $7.20/kg milksolids.

It is the first big bank economics team forecast to go above $7 – ASB, Westpac and Rabobank are currently at that level. section chair Luke Kane says he has heard some graziers were increasing prices in part to reflect tougher rules for intensive winter grazing.

He has not heard of any exodus of graziers.

Hadleigh Germann, his Southland counterpart, agreed saying higher grazing costs reflected uncertainty and the perceived costs of meeting new freshwater regulations.

In the medium to long-term there is going to be pressure on dairy winter grazing.

Deane Carson AgriBusiness Ltd

“That whole space is quite frustrating,” Germann said.

Some of the high fees were to fund portable water troughs and back fencing on grazed crops.

Germann says some dairy farmers are looking to exploit a loophole in the regulations that allow cows to be intensively grazed on pasture with baleage and silage.

Regulations as they are currently written exclude the pugging rules on pasture that apply to crops, but the Government has said it will plug that loophole.

Carson is aware of many farmers experimenting with crops and feeding systems to try and adhere to the regulations and avoid the need for resource consent.

“They are trying to find better ways using a bit of theory and logic,” he said.

Carson says the higher regulatory threshold means fewer landowners will be able to provide dairy support in the future.

“The pathway is extremely difficult given the regulatory threshold,” he said.

“It is a matter of time before pressure will come on to the dairy support.”

A wet summer means crop yields were looking exceptionally good and he did not expect there to be any feed shortage.

Meanwhile, the announce its response to recommendations from the intensive winter grazing working group convened last year to make the implementation of its policies workable.

In its report released prior to Christmas, the group recommended the removal of pugging and replanting date conditions and instead identifying and protecting critical source areas such as swales or gullies where runoff accumulates prior to entering waterways.

New year, new higher milk price

Government is still to

After Global Dairy Trade (GDT) prices increased by 3.9% in the first auction of the new year, NZX senior analyst Amy Castleton’s computer model of the milk price went to $7.36.

Both the new ANZ forecast and the NZX estimate are near the top end of the current Fonterra milk price range $6.70 to $7.30.

The advance price schedule on which dairy farmers receive their monthly milksolids payments is now based on $7, with a good prospect of an increase in early March.

ANZ agricultural economist Susan Kilsby says the milk price prediction was firming up because 70% of the products from this season’s New Zealand milk supply will have been contracted.

The rising value of the NZ dollar will not impact this season’s milk price but will hold next season’s forecast to $6.40.

Milk supplies around the world are modestly increasing but rising demand has matched the supply improvement.

“We do remain cautious about the longer-term outlook and still see scope for dairy commodity prices to soften in the second half of 2021, which will impact the milk price for next season,” she said.

European Union, Australian and NZ milk supplies are forecast to increase 1%, but that rate of growth can be absorbed by demand growth.

These are weather and yield-related increases, not expansions of the cow herds.

Milk supply growth in the United States is higher but presently being absorbed by food welfare programmes containing liquid milks, yoghurts and cheeses, committed out to April.

Kilsby says dairy products sold steadily through the pandemic, helped partly by their longer storage lives.

This means dairy products retain their value, should they be delayed by shipping and port disruptions.

The prospects of disruption might have caused some buyers to stockpile and limit upside price risk, which would then raise the possibility of compensatory slumping demand in future.

“It is not clear at this stage if any significant stocks of product are being stored in-market, but the strength of demand evident at the first GDT event would indicate otherwise.

“Buyers were still very keen to secure product – particularly product contracted for immediate supply,” she said.

The group also recommended changes to the slope rule, including removing the requirement to determine the mean slope of a paddock and replacing it with a specific maximum slope of 15 degrees.

It also wants an interim approach to the certified freshwater farm plan introduced, what it calls an Intensive Winter Grazing Module, which would make winter grazing a permitted activity if the farmer is undertaking best practice.

PREMATURE: Invercargill-based agribusiness farm consultant Deane Carson says it’s too early to accurately quantify dairy cow wintering costs for the coming year.

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