FarmWeek September 13 2010

Page 1

WITH THE NUMBER of critical issues facing agriculture, perhaps never before has the importance of getting the ag vote out been more critical. .......................................2

HIGH-SPEED INTERNET infrastructure in 55 Illinois counties will be improved with a $62 million federal grant announced last week. .........................................3

THE CORN CROP this year has fallen short of expectations, but USDA still sees a record in both the corn and soybean crops, according to a report Friday. .........4

Monday, September 13, 2010

Two sections Volume 38, No. 37

Clock ticking down for estate tax reform BY PHILIP NELSON President, Illinois Farm Bureau

T he federal estate tax — commonly known to farmers as the “death tax” — is now in a dreadful state of limbo in Congress. Your help is needed to push through reform. Those who support the estate tax say it is an effective way to stop the accumulation of family dynasties. It is a “rich person’s” tax, so it is said, with less than 5 percent of Americans paying anything at all. But Congress has long recognized the estate tax can hit the middle class, and especially the owners of small businesses such as farms. That’s why lawmakers put an escalating exemption in the law in 2001, gradually raising the value of an estate exempted from $1 million to $3.5 million in 2009. Sounds like a lot of money. But it just barely kept ahead of increases in

nothing has been done. farmland prices over the past decade. Businesses that require tremendous And now, unless the law is changed, the capital but often are in a cash-short broadly supported exemption is schedposition cannot afford to pay the high uled to snap back to 2001 levels. estate taxes dictated by the new law. Time is literally running out for conCongress is heading into the pre-elecgressional action regarding the estate tion home stretch, and it is important tax. The tax returns on Jan. 1., 2011, that action takes place now! with a rate of 55 percent and a $1 milThis is a high priority lion exemption. FarmWeekNow.com for Illinois Farm With such a low To learn more about IFB’s Bureau, and we are exemption, many more farmers and small business action request on the fed- actively working on the eral estate tax issue, go to issue. Farmers and owners will be forced to FarmWeekNow.com. small business owners pay estate taxes next year have limited time to lean (see accompanying story). on Congress to fix this problem. I have heard from farmers concerned We encourage every Farm Bureau that if they were to pass away, their chilmember to participate in IFB’s action dren may be left without enough cash on request. Contact Senators Durbin and hand to pay the tax and may be forced to Burris to request their support for the sell off land in order to keep their operaLincoln/Kyl amendment (which would tion going. These farm families who raise the standard exemption to $5 million worked their whole lives to build a business and lower the estate tax rate to 35 percould be forced to give much of it away. cent). Also, respond to the action request Congress is aware of the negative and contact your congressmen today. consequences of the tax for farmers We are calling on Congress to proand small business owners, but

vide a higher estate tax exemption and a lower tax rate. A higher exemption will protect average people, giving them a better chance to remain in business after passing through an estate settlement. This week, we are organizing an action alert to target Congress and push estate tax reform to a vote as soon as possible. We seek your involvement!

Lack of estate tax reform could fuel rural exodus BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek

Periodicals: Time Valued

Amid last week’s White House focus on small business stimulus and tax relief, an Illinois rural economist recommended estate tax reform

as a key step in helping Main Street move forward and retain “wealth.” Western Illinois University Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs economist Norman Walzer sees a potential reversion to pre-2002 estate tax provisions as a serious threat both to farm families and family-owned rural businesses that face either intergenerational transition or extinction. Walzer sees a continued exodus of rural youth to urban centers as many members of the baby boomer generation reach retirement age. In some cases, estate tax liability under a relatively low $1 million exemption and a severe 55 percent tax rate may prove the deal-breaker for business heirs and spur further erosion of the rural economy, he said. The threat is aggravated by what Walzer views as a lack of solid business succession planning in rural communities. “We’re in a situation now of being able to have probably the biggest wealth transfer

ever,” he told FarmWeek. “The post-World War II generation did very well — it accumulated a fair amount of

‘If you have higher estate taxes, yo u fo r c e bu s i ness sales.’ — Norman Walzer Illinois Institute for Rural Affairs

wealth. You’re transferring farms, but you’re also transferring businesses. I don’t think we really pay enough attention to that. “The independent businesses are terribly important in these (rural) areas. If you look at some of the statistics, you find that as many as 20 to 25 to 30 percent in some counties are private businesses, small operations.

FarmWeek on the web: FarmWeekNow.com

“Preserving that group is really important to the future of rural areas. If you have higher estate taxes, you force business sales.” Walzer sees potentially significant relief in Senate proposals to bump the estate tax exemption to $5 million (see accompanying story), arguing that “in a rural area, that’s a lot of money for a business.” In part because of a growing tendency toward retail chain development along major highways and in new facilities, the economist warns Main Street business closings in many cases will leave behind indefinitely empty storefronts. When that business is a local grocery or drugstore central to community activity, the loss also hurts the area’s ability to retain retirees or attract new businesses or residents. That can result in home deterioration among remaining lower-income residents, further devaluing the community. “It’s just a continual kind of decline,” Walzer suggested.

Call for action Illinois Farm Bureau Leaders to Washington this week will lobby lawmakers on Capitol Hill on a variety of measures, with an emphasis on estate tax relief. Meanwhile, producers here at home can raise awareness of the threat to farm families if Congress fails to act on the estate tax reform. IFB is asking members Tuesday through Thursday to call Illinois’ U.S. Sens. Dick Durbin, a Springfield Democrat, and Roland Burris, a Chicago Democrat, in support of the Lincoln/Kyl amendment — a Senate measure that would boost the estate tax exemption to $5 million ($10 million per couple), adjusted for inflation, and establish a 35 percent tax rate. Call Senator Durbin at 1202-224-2152 and Senator Burris at 1-202-224-2854. If Congress fails to approve some form of reform, the estate tax will return at a $1 million exemption and 55 percent tax rate in 2011. Producers are urged to relate how estate tax liability could impact their operations or future farm viability. For further information, visit {www.ilfb.org/fbact} on the web.

Illinois Farm Bureau®on the web: www.ilfb.org


FarmWeek Page 2 Monday, September 13, 2010

DECISION 2010

Quick Takes REASSURING THE RETAILERS — As federal officials continued to mull a waiver to allow E12 or E15 (12 to 15 percent ethanol gasoline blends), the Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) endorsed Collinsville Republican U.S. Rep. John Shimkus’ Renewable Fuels Marketing Act of 2010, which would address legal liability concerns about use of higher ethanol blends among fuel marketers. The bill would require the federal government to issue guidance on retail fueling equipment approved for use with individual biofuels blends. The RFA “is doing everything within (its) power to support these retailers and any retailers looking to offer ethanol blended fuels,” RFA’s Matt Hartwig said. FIRES DAMAGE THREE ELEVATORS –- Firefighters fought fires at three elevators last week as corn harvest geared up. An explosion Tuesday damaged facilities and resulted in injuries to three people at an elevator owned by Tate & Lyle and located in Heyworth in McLean County. Investigators had not determined a cause, but welders had been at work on a grain bin attached to the elevator. On Wednesday, an explosion injured two people and damaged a truck at the Ursa Farmer’s Co-op in Warsaw in Hancock County. Witnesses described fireballs shooting 200 feet into the air from grain pit. A cause had not been determined and the incident was under investigation. Also on Wednesday, corn caught fire in a bin at the Monica Elevator Co. in Dunlap in Peoria County. Spontaneous combustion is the suspected cause. “The (poor) quality of the crop that remains from last year is causing ... some issues,” Stuart Selinger of the Illinois Department of Agriculture told FarmWeek. ENBRIDGE PIPELINE SPILL — Federal, state, and local agencies responded to a pipeline oil spill near Romeoville last week. The pipeline is owned by Enbridge Energy Limited Partnership. Environmental Protection Agency, state and local agencies responded immediately and are taking steps to minimize damage and protect the Des Plaines River, according to Susan Hedman, EPA regional administrator. Initial assessments indicate crude oil from the pipeline flowed through sewers into a retention pond near Route 53. The pipeline was shut down. This was the second Enbridge pipeline spill this summer in the Midwest. The first one caused damage in the Kalamazoo River. Enbridge Pipelines (Illinois) LLC is building a pipeline from Northern Illinois to Patoka in Marion County.

Getting out the vote:

Voter anger in federal races could spell mixed results for ag BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek

Perhaps in no election has the power of anger and the importance of getting the ag vote out been so critical. At this point, with a few state primary races remaining, handicapping this November’s Capitol Hill elections is “nearly impossible,” American Farm Bureau Federation political specialist Linda Johnson told FarmWeek. But amid growing discontentment with the administration and Congress and the continued rise and some surprising primary wins by the conservative Tea Party faction, Johnson sees potential for major upheaval on the Hill next year. She noted a large number of House and Senate seats “in the toss-up column” and an “amazing” number of lawmakers who decided not to even seek reelection, including Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-N.D.), Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.), and Kit Bond (R-Mo.) and Rep. Marion Berry (D-Ark.). Johnson sees Illinois’ U.S. Senate race between Democrat Alexi Giannoulias and Republican Mark Kirk in “a solid toss-up column.” Political analyst Charlie Cook predicted the House would turn over to a Republican majority, given frustration over the poor economy and the job market. Last week, Cook included 45 House (42 Democrat and three Republican) seats in his “toss up” column, and Johnson noted Republicans only need 39 seats to regain House control. With 11 Senate seats deemed toss-ups, Cook believes Democrats will retain a Senate majority, but will lose some key seats. Johnson suggested the Democrat majority there could shrink to perhaps one or two seats, increasing the need for bipartisan policy cooperation over the next two years. A shakeup could prove a mixed bag for farmers. Senate Environment Chairman Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) is “definitely in the toss-up column,” and as a regulatory advocate and part of a powerful California clique that includes Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and senior Sen.

Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), her defeat “would not be a loss for us,” Johnson argued. Neither would the defeat of Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), another reported toss-up who has supported universal health care, Johnson said. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) also faces a tough race against Republican Sharron Angle. On the flip side is Senate Ag Committee Chairman Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.), who helped broker a major 2008 farm bill compromise and who has supported estate tax reform and other key Farm Bureau goals. While she survived a contentious primary race, Johnson warned Lincoln’s is “probably the most important seat out there that we’re looking at losing.” She’s been very good for us, but right now all of the political pundits do not think she can pull this out,” Johnson told FarmWeek. “Blanche Lincoln is a real trooper, and she’s working really hard, but she’s swimming uphill. “This is a Republican wave coming down. There are a lot of people out there who are just angry at government in general and the party that’s in power, and no matter how good (Lincoln’s) been, I think they’re going to take her out because of that — because she has the wrong letter behind her name.” Boxer’s departure would make it easier for Senate Democrats to reach across the aisle on issues such as climate, Johnson said. But she fears the new wave also could “take out some really good conservative Ds (Democrats)” important to bridging the party divide and potentially more sympathetic to ag spending than fiscally stern Tea Partiers. And Democrat lawmakers are not the only potential casualties. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, an Alaska Republican known for her efforts to block U.S. Environmental Protection Agency greenhouse gas regulations, conceded her party’s August primary race to Joe Miller, a former judge endorsed by ex-Alaska governor and Tea Party champion Sarah Palin. “The (traditional) GOP is not necessarily the Tea Party’s friend,” Johnson advised.

RIDING FOR EDUCATION

(ISSN0197-6680) Vol. 38 No. 37

Sept. 13, 2010

Dedicated to improving the profitability of farming, and a higher quality of life for Illinois farmers. FarmWeek is produced by the Illinois Farm Bureau. FarmWeek is published each week, except the Mondays following Thanksgiving and Christmas, by the Illinois Agricultural Association, 1701 Towanda Avenue, P.O. Box 2901, Bloomington, IL 61701. Illinois Agricultural Association assumes no responsibility for statements by advertisers or for products or services advertised in FarmWeek. FarmWeek is published by the Illinois Agricultural Association for farm operator members. $3 from the individual membership fee of each of those members go toward the production of FarmWeek.

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Left: Carrie Schreiber, Illinois Agriculture in the Classroom (IAITC) education specialist, leads students at Chebanse Elementary School in Kankakee County in a game called “Are You Smart Enough to Farm?” during last week’s IAA Foundation-sponsored 15th annual Bike Ride for IAITC. Participating in the skit were bike riders in background, from left, Don Bergfield, Leon Malone, Doris and Jess Lionberger, and Diane Risius.

STAFF Editor Dave McClelland (dmcclelland@ilfb.org) Legislative Affairs Editor Kay Shipman (kayship@ilfb.org) Agricultural Affairs Editor Martin Ross (mross@ilfb.org) Senior Commodities Editor Daniel Grant (dgrant@ilfb.org) Editorial Assistant Linda Goltz (Lgoltz@ilfb.org) Business Production Manager Bob Standard Advertising Sales Manager

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Hurst and Associates, Inc. P.O. Box 6011, Vernon Hills, IL 60061 1-800-397-8908 (advertising inquiries only) Gary White - Northern Illinois Doug McDaniel - Southern Illinois Editorial phone number: 309-557-2239 Classified advertising: 309-557-3155 Display advertising: 1-800-676-2353

Right: Some of the 50 bike riders who participated in the bike ride pass through a rural area in Kankakee County. The riders traveled more than 500 miles during the three-day ride through Ford, Grundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, Livingston, and Will counties. Proceeds from the ride, which were still being tallied Friday, will go to fund the IAITC program. (Photos by Ken Kashian)


FarmWeek Page 3 Monday, September 13, 2010

INFRASTRUCTURE

State ramping up information highway with $96 million project BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek

Illinois will be improving its high-speed Internet infrastructure in 55 counties with a $62 million federal grant, Gov. Pat Quinn announced in Normal last week. “It’s key to prosperity,” Quinn told a crowd at Illinois State University. “We need to bring together tools of the Internet in the global economy . . . so everyone can compete.” Illinois won the U.S. Department of Commerce grant for the state’s Illinois Broadband Opportunity Program. The state will contribute a $26 million matching grant and partner organizations will pitch in another FarmWeekNow.com $8 million. Additional information about When comthe Central Illinois broadpleted, the band project can be found at three-year proFarmWeekNow.com. ject will add 1,000 miles of fiber-optic broadband cable and will enhance another 1,000 miles of existing cable in eastern, central, and northern portions of the state, according to Lori Sorenson with the state’s Central Management Services. Sorenson estimated the project will mean a 10-fold increase in broadband capacity and more affordable services for 3.9 million households and 285,000 businesses. She said construction is expected to start in the spring.

‘Bandwidth is a dr iver for new businesses.’ — Tim Norman Bloomington small business owner

This was the second announcement in as many weeks on federal funding for Illinois broadband projects. USDA recently awarded Illinois $12 million to bring wireless network technology to 11 East-Central Illinois counties. Improving broadband access in rural areas is a 2010 priority of the Illinois Farm Bureau. The project announced last week will build on the efforts of five regional fiber-optic networks and many community proposals to provide a comprehensive statewide broadband infrastructure. Collectively, the projects would directly connect all 48 community colleges to a statewide network. “Bandwidth is a driver for new businesses,” said Tim Norman, a Bloomington businessman with a new Internet company. Norman added he never imagined two of his first Internet customers would be located in California and Maine. “Building this information superhighway will create jobs,” Quinn added.

President’s plan possible transportation stage-setter committees on the proposal. House Transportation and The White House’s new Infrastructure Chairman James blueprint for reinvigorating the Oberstar (D-Minn.) suggested nation’s infrastructure sets the administration officials have stage for next year’s congres“finally found their compass” sional transportation debate — after providing meager stimuif federal funds are available to lus funding for transportation. take it beyond the design stage. Basso noted “the frontIn a Labor Day address, loading of $50 billion” on top President Obama proposed a of existing fiscal 2010 high$50 billion “up-front investway/transit funding would ment” in long-term road, rail, offer a potential $100 billion and airport short-term improveinfusion for ments. A proimproveposed new ments ‘They want to make nationwide. federal “infrastructure i n v e s t m e n t s i n Further, bank” would 1 5 0 , 0 0 0 m i l e s o f Obama’s help leverage infrastrucroadway improve- ture bank local, state, and private m e n t s a n d 4 , 0 0 0 could offer capital. new loan miles fo rail.’ Jack Basso, guarantee director of opportuni— Jack Basso ties for pubprogram state highway association official finance and lic/private management projects such with the as “interAmerican modal” truck/rail facilities, he Association of State Highway said. and Transportation Officials “They want to make invest(AASHTO), said he was ments in 150,000 miles of pleased the administration roadway improvements and “has embraced the idea of 4,000 miles of rail,” he told doing a long-term reauthoriza- FarmWeek. tion for surface transporta“The highway improvetion.” ments would make a big differThe White House last week ence in terms of freight movebriefed House and Senate ment — about 80 percent of

BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek

our goods move by the highway system, and if you look at that by dollar value, it’s about 90 percent. And in agriculture, much of that moves either on freight rails or trucking lanes.” Meanwhile, the Waterways Council Inc., which represents commercial barge interests, was “left disappointed and puzzled” about the lack of presidential support for any river navigation or port projects. Basso said he hopes Congress can begin “moving in

earnest” on transportation early next year. Oberstar has floated a draft bill including a “critical infrastructure program” aimed at upgrading existing facilities; Basso suggested it could be expanded “where appropriate” to add highway capacity. Basso noted recovery in truck freight movements over the past several months, bolstering demand for increased capacity. But he warned capacitybuilding will be possible only if Congress provides at least $450 billion in long-term

transportation/infrastructure spending. On top of that, AASHTO favors at least $50 billion in inner city/passenger/high speed rail transportation funding provided from sources other than the fuel tax-fed Highway Trust Fund. Currently, the trust fund is used for roughly 80 percent of transit needs; Basso stressed the need instead to fund transit through the federal general budget. “Of course, the key to all that is finding the money,” he acknowledged.


FarmWeek Page 4 Monday, September 13, 2010

PRODUCTION

USDA trims corn estimate, sees record bean crop BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek

USDA in its crop production report Friday confirmed what many corn farmers have found so far this harvest. The crop is not reaching last month’s USDA yield expectations. USDA lowered its national corn yield estimate, based on Sept. 1 conditions, by 2.5 bushels to a current projection of 162.5 bushels per acre. The average corn yield estimate in Illinois was lowered from 180 bushels per acre in August to a current estimate of 174 bushels per acre. “As expected, the report

did show a reduction in corn yield,” said Brian Basting of Advance Trading during a teleconference hosted by the CME Group.

FarmWeekNow.com Full details of the September crop and supply-demand rep o r t s a r e a t F a r m We e k Now.com.

Terry Roggensack of The Hightower Report said he believes corn yields aren’t meeting expectations due to excessive moisture in June and July that possibly caused some leaching of nitrogen combined with extreme heat and dryness

Corn basis widening possible by this fall Farmers who have corn they must sell at harvest may want to consider locking in a basis price — if it is favorable in their area. There is concern in the industry that a backlog of damaged corn from last year’s harvest could affect the market in coming months and lead to a widening of the basis. “I’m very concerned about the corn basis this fall,” said Doug Yoder, Illinois Farm Bureau senior director of marketing and risk management. Yoder last week addressed members of the IFB Profitability Advisory Team. Yoder reported about 1,000 barges remain loaded with damaged, old-crop corn and are docked near the Gulf of Mexico awaiting higher-quality, new-crop corn with which to be blended so the loads meet export requirements. The portion of barges currently out of commission for the start of the 2010 harvest because they hold old-crop corn reportedly is about 10 percent of the fleet. “This could lead to a widening of the basis,” Yoder said. “There’s not a lot we can do about it. That’s the market at work.” Fortunately, the corn basis was still holding up as of last week. Meanwhile, the pressure on the grain transportation system may not be as great as feared this season because early yield reports indicate corn yields generally are below previous expectations. However, the number of barges tied up with old-crop corn could hurt export sales of distillers dried grain (DDGs). Buyers in the Gulf currently are outbidding the container market for DDGs, according to Phil Thornton, value-enhanced project director for the Illinois Corn Growers Association/Marketing Board. But sales could be limited by the number of barges available to haul the corn-ethanol byproduct to market. “The backlog of corn could put a crimp in DDG sales,” Thornton told the advisory team. Overall, a change to the wheat contract at the Chicago Board of Trade, in which variable storage rates were implemented beginning with the July contract, has offered encouraging results to help eliminate major discrepancies between futures and cash crop prices. “We certainly saw some improvement of convergence (in the wheat market),” said Yoder, who also serves on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) subcommittee on convergence. “But it’s premature to say it solved the issue.” IFB, the Profitability Advisory Team, the CFTC subcommittee, and others currently are monitoring the performance of the wheat contract with the new storage rates to see if similar changes may benefit corn and soybean contracts. “Convergence is a continuing concern we’re monitoring closely,” said Kent Schleich, chairman of the IFB advisory team and District 8 director from Fairview. Basis levels for corn and soybeans the past two years have been on a “rollercoaster,” Yoder added. — Daniel Grant

in August that sped up the maturation process and shortened kernel filling time for many corn plants. Total corn production for this year was lowered 2 percent from the August forecast to 13.16 billion bushels. That still would set a record. Meanwhile, U.S. soybean production and the national average bean yield also would be records, based on USDA’s September estimates. The agency boosted its bean production estimate 1 percent compared to August to 3.483 billion bushels based on a record average yield of 44.7 bushels per acre. In Illinois, the soybean yield

projection was raised from 49 bushels per acre in August to a current record estimate of 51 bushels per acre. Record crop production could cap recent market rallies. Corn futures last week reached 23-month highs, but the markets are not expected to turn bearish anytime soon due to strong demand. USDA last week raised export projections by 50 million bushels each for corn and wheat and estimated soy exports for the year will reach a record 1.495 billion bushels. “The market built in a fair amount of the (corn) yield reduction,” Basting said. “But

it could continue to rally. (Either way), the market is giving farmers a tremendous opportunity to lock in a floor for their production.” USDA raised its season average farm price projections by 65 cents for beans (to a range of $9.15 to $10.65 per bushel), by 70 cents on the high side for corn (to a range of $4 to $4.80 per bushel) and by 15 cents on the high side for wheat (to a range of $4.95 to $5.65 per bushel). USDA Friday also lowered ending stocks to 1.116 billion bushels for corn, 350 million bushels for beans, and 902 million bushels for wheat.

55 Illinois counties designated disaster areas The Illinois Department of Agriculture (IDOA) announced federal disaster assistance is available to help many farmers in counties who suffered crop losses because of excessive rain and flooding this year. USDA granted the state’s request to designate 55 counties as natural disaster areas. The designation qualifies farmers in those counties and 37 contiguous counties for USDA assistance, including low-interest emergency loans. “While the latest USDA crop production report forecasts near-record yields for the Illinois corn and bean crops, damage assessments show some farmers may have suffered production losses because of heavy rains this spring and summer,” IDOA Director Tom Jennings said. “The loans this declaration triggers will help those farmers who don’t have a crop to harvest this fall. “They can be used not only to pay production costs, but also to refinance existing debt and cover essential family living expenses.” The period from April through July of this year was the fourth wettest on record in Illinois. Precipitation totaled 21.63 inches, or 5.43 inches above average. Current estimates indicate 200,000 acres of corn and 50,000 acres of beans could be unharvestable this fall due in part to the extremely wet conditions. The corn crop currently is forecast to yield a recordtying 174 bushels an acre, which means as many as 36 million bushels of corn may have been lost to flooding. The potential soybean losses total 2.45 million bushels, based

on a projected near-record yield of 51 bushels an acre. The 55 counties declared as primary disaster areas are shown in the accompanying map. Thirty-seven contiguous counties also were approved for disaster assistance. Farmers who believe they may qualify for disaster assistance should contact their county Farm Service Agency office.

Farm Service Agency staff can verify whether producers have crops that are eligible for emergency funds. Applications are considered on a case-by-case basis, taking into account the extent of losses, available security, and an applicant’s repayment ability. The deadline to submit loan applications under this disaster declaration is May 2, 2011.


FarmWeek Page 5 Monday, September 13, 2010

GOVERNMENT

Carp study to intensify; navigation at risk? BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek

As a new federal carp czar pledged to explore all options to keep Asian carp out of the Great Lakes, a pair of Midwestern senators disagreed over the extent to which carp control should impact river commerce. Last week, the White House Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) announced former Indiana Department of Natural Resources Director John Goss would oversee local, state, and federal efforts to prevent the

invasive carp from settling in Lake Michigan via the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal. Illinois Farm Bureau opposes Northeastern Illinois’ Chicago and O’Brien Lock closures proposed to block carp access. But U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.), who joined Sen. Dick Durbin, a Springfield Democrat, in hailing Goss’ appointment as carp director, renewed the call for permanent lock closures. While Durbin cited Stabenow’s shared “passion� in combating the voracious fish, he questioned the feasi-

Chu: Illinois crucial in clean coal blueprint While he outlined broad new directions in developing climate-friendly coal technologies, U.S. Energy Secretary Steven Chu assured FarmWeek FutureGen — and Illinois — will remain critical to sustainable coal power. Last week, the Department of Energy (DOE) announced an “unprecedented investment� in clean coal development aimed at meeting the president’s goal of cost-effective carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage within 10 years, positioning the U.S. as “a leader in the global clean energy race.� Included are $312 million in federal stimulus funds for large-scale testing of advanced gasification technologies key to industrial carbon capSteven Chu ture; $123 million for advanced turbo/lower emissions engines and $90 million for added technologies that would help plants further contain CO2; and $50 million to explore underground formations where CO2 emissions could be trapped and “sequestered� long-term. The University of Texas will head efforts to identify possible sequestration sites in the Gulf of Mexico region. “FutureGen 2.0,� DOE’s revised version of a long-delayed clean coal project, proposes to transport CO2 from Ameren’s idled Meredosia power plant (and possibly other manufacturing or power plants) through a projected 175-mile pipeline to East Central Illinois, where it would be injected deep into the Mt. Simon Sandstone Formation. The original FutureGen envisioned a cutting-edge coal-powered facility and CO2 sequestration site near Mattoon. But the Coles County community rejected the offer of a sequestration site and a new CO2 capture-pipeline training center without the plant. Chu nonetheless emphasized FutureGen 2.0 — and the $1 billion in 2009 stimulus money earmarked for it — are still integral to the national clean coal push. FutureGen would provide a commercial-scale test of “an entire system� which eventually could be adapted to use “generation-and-a-half and second generation� CO2 reduction/capture technologies developed through new projects, he told FarmWeek. “While the FutureGen project will test the system, we’re also investing in the components of the system so we that can drive down costs,� Chu said. “Our goal is to start to deploy at scale commercially within 10 years.� The Meredosia plant itself will be retrofitted with cutting edge “oxy-combustion� technology, using superheated oxygen to burn coal with reduced emissions. New technologies funded by DOE in Pennsylvania, Washington, and California include new engine turbines that could burn hydrogen at higher temperatures, reducing potential greenhouse emissions, to new equipment that could compress CO2 for storage or transportation or even allow use of methane from coal vents as an additional energy source. Meanwhile, possible Illinois CO2 sequestration sites “are under evaluation, and we’re pressing forward as quickly as we can,� Chu related. With Mattoon out of the running, Tuscola in Douglas County — a FutureGen runner-up in 2008 — could be back under consideration as a carbon collection site. — Martin Ross

bility of such a separation. Beyond the significance of the Chicago-area waterway to “the commerce of the area� — movement of goods into and out of the metro hub — separation of the river channel, the canal, and/or Lake Michigan poses a regional flood threat “of tremendous magnitude,� he said. Federal and Midwestern officials will consider navigational impacts and other potential economic costs associated with carp control measures, Goss said. He said he would withhold judgment on the need for lock closures or other canal separation measures until the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completes its own study of invasive species control options. “Absolutely, cost-benefit is a key part of the Corps of Engineers study,� Goss told FarmWeek. “It also will be looked at from a more independent point of view by the Great Lakes Commission. “It (the commission) will be doing a very thorough costbenefit analysis of all the

options for ecological cooperation between the Mississippi Basin and the Great Lakes. We’ll have two different

‘Cost-benefit is a key par t of the Corps of Engineers study.’ — John Goss Federal Asian carp director

approaches, with economic analysis in both.� In addition to serving as executive director of the Indiana Wildlife Federation and vice chairman of the regional Great Lakes Commission, Goss formerly chaired the Council of Great Lakes Governors’ International Marketing Cooperative. As Asian carp director, he will chair the Asian Carp Regional Coordinating Committee (RCC), a team of federal, state, and local agencies. He hopes the RCC in October will release an updated carp control strategy, which

currently proposes 25 shortand long-term measures and “tens of millions of dollars of investment.� Stabenow argued the carp crisis is intensifying, noting reports of carp spawning in the Wabash River and fears of wetland connections with the Maumee River along the northeast Indiana-Ohio border posing a threat to Lake Erie. Durbin and Hinsdale Republican Rep. Judy Biggert have channeled $25 millionplus into electronic barriers and other control measures, but Durbin argued “we have to double our efforts.� “From the viewpoint of the Illinois congressional delegation, Democrats and Republicans, when it comes to the Asian carp threat, we are not in denial, we are not in a go-slow mode,� Durbin said. “We are in a full-attack, full-speed-ahead mode. We want to stop this carp from advancing, and stop other predatory species from coming into Lake Michigan and destroying this great, wonderful American resource.�

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FarmWeek Page 6 Monday, September 13, 2010

CROPWATCHERS Bernie Walsh, Durand, Winnebago County: We had several weeks of above average temps this summer but last week was below average. There was only a trace of rain last week and some very windy days that helped dry the corn and beans and get us closer to harvest. Silo filling is nearly complete, and there has been some corn combined, but very little. The early reports are moisture in the low 20s, generally good corn yields, except on corn-after-corn, and test weights all over the board. The soybeans are still about 10 days from being ready to combine — more on that next week. Have a good week and stay safe. Pete Tekampe, Grayslake, Lake County: It was a great week in Lake County. A couple of light showers with less than 0.1 of an inch accumulation for the week. Corn is drying fast, but there is not much green left. Early beans are losing leaves but still about 10 days until combining. Late beans are still grass green but not needing much more time. Most of the silage is cut and still some third-cutting hay to be baled. It is expected to be dry the rest of this week. Leroy Getz, Savanna, Carroll County: A few sprinkles on Sunday (Sept. 5) but no real measurable rain for the week. Combines have started, but with the dry weather, guys are letting it dry in the field as long as possible. Moisture levels have dropped about 3 to 4 percent for the week and now are in the mid-20s. Windy days have lodged most soybean fields. Ron Frieders, Waterman, DeKalb County: A few people started on corn last week. Moisture was 17-29 percent with below average to average yields. Some fields have stalk quality problems and standability is a big concern. I don’t think anyone has soybeans ready yet. A few fields are getting close, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see early varieties combined soon. Larry Hummel, Dixon, Lee County: It’s official. Harvest in Lee County has started — kind of, anyway. I have seen one combine doing beans and two fields of corn being harvested. We still have a good week yet before any of our beans are ready, even though we had some excellent drying days last week. High land prices, the economy, and an increase in capital gains taxes scheduled for next year seem to have brought an unusual amount of farmland onto the market. Even with the influx of property for sale, prices seem to be inching higher at a slow but steady pace. Ken Reinhardt, Seaton, Mercer County: There was some rain over the holiday weekend but not a washout. Tuesday (Sept. 7) was deemed the windiest day in two years in WGN’s blog. Corn harvest has begun in earnest. Yields will be all over the board. I have heard of moisture as low as 16 percent already. The big elevator project in Aledo looks to be able to take corn Oct. 1. The new elevator just south of the county line has given up on this year after a long struggle with muddy conditions. There are a few soybean fields a week away from harvest. Ron Moore, Roseville, Warren County: We had some light showers this past week. Corn harvest is in full swing here. Most of the corn is mature and testing from 18 to 25 percent moisture. Some of the refuge corn is starting to lodge, but not enough to have any field loss. The yields are highly inconsistent. The ponded areas are making anywhere from 0-100, and the better land is normal with yields of 200. We won’t know for sure what our yields are until the last field is harvested. Soybeans are still two to three weeks away from harvest. Many are just turning the leaves yellow now.

Tim Green, Wyoming, Stark County: A very cool week was really appreciated with a lot of work getting done. After Labor Day, a lot of people started picking corn. Yields generally are lower. I heard yields as low as 115. That was a nice, square, flat 40-acre field. We had a lot of water problems, and yields are showing it. The highest yield I have heard is 191 — corn-on-corn on rolling ground. I also have heard 151, so yields are pretty wild. Beans are still probably a week off — maybe the end of this week, weather permitting. Corn moistures are good and seem to be coming down. Mark Kerber, Chatsworth, Livingston County: Harvest has begun. Almost everybody is in the field taking advantage of dry weather and dry crops. Now I go to bed at night listening to the hum of bin fans. Completely different from last year when we started beans on Sept. 29 and corn on Oct. 12. In general, corn yields are down 30 to 50 bushels to the acre with corn-on-corn really taking a hit from no rain in July and planting on compacted soils from last year’s mud. We started soybeans last week also. High winds and heat really dried the early soybeans. A small rain event would be nice to put some moisture back into them. Markets are going up so far through this early harvest. Brian Schaumburg, Chenoa, McLean County: As of Sept. 10, we were 50 percent complete on corn harvest. Poor yields on continuous corn are the norm with 100 to 170 catching most fields. Corn after beans is better by up to 50 bushels or more, but still nothing great. Soybeans are just starting and most report better-than-anticipated yields. Seed companies are pushing new products. What about the highly touted hybrids for this season that are complete failures? Corn, $4.33, January, $4.48; soybeans, $10.06, January, $10.16; wheat, $6.39 July. Steve Ayers, Champaign, Champaign County: Combines continue rolling under ideal harvest conditions. Amy Brammer from Topflight Grain has a terrific daily newsletter, so here are some of the yield reports so far: Southwestern Champaign County had 145 acres at 117 bushels per acre (bpa); Rantoul had 165 bpa vs. 190 a year ago, and northern Champaign County at 148 bushels per acre, 175, and 195 vs. 200-plus a year ago. I did hear that some corn was harvested at 13 percent! We will start knocking off end rows this week. Some of our beans are yellowing, but we are a few weeks off for soy harvest. Looks like remnants of tropical storm Hermine will stay south of us. There is not much chance of rain again until late this week with temperatures of 55 to 80 degrees. Let’s be careful out there! Wilfred Dittmer, Quincy, Adams County: It’s another fall morning here Friday and cloudy with only a few showers Thursday but the dry down of crops continues at a rapid pace. The green cornfields are about history but no combines are running close by. The strong winds of last Monday (Sept. 6) sure were not needed. It looks like the early beans may just be starting to turn a little yellow. Late beans are still green. Have a safe week as the harvest pace picks up speed. Todd Easton, Charleston, Coles County: Corn harvest moved rapidly across the county last week with many producers nearing or over the halfway mark. The crop is dropping moisture rapidly and most fields are going straight into the bin. Yields are all over the place, but it seems like the majority of the fields will end up in the 155 to 185 range. It is apparent that close management of this corn crop was the key to better-than-average yields this year, especially on the nitrogen side. A small handful of combines were out in some bean fields last week, but no yield reports have been circulated yet. The vast majority of the beans are still at least two weeks away from harvesting.

Tom Ritter, Blue Mound, Macon County: A lot of corn disappeared from the fields last week with yields ranging from very good to very poor, depending upon water damage in low-lying areas. The hills have the best corn. The corn-on-corn also seems to be taking a little yield hit. Overall, we are approaching 50 percent complete with corn harvest. No soybeans have been harvested at this time. Corn moisture has been astoundingly low with very little corn being picked above 18 percent, and most of it in the 15- to 16-percent range, which will definitely help on the drying. Our local GROWMARK propane man almost seems like he’s the Maytag repairman this year. Soybeans are a week to 10 days away for the most part. Yield estimates look good, but beans can be very deceiving, so we will see in another week or two how those turn out. Jimmy Ayers, Rochester, Sangamon County: This past week, we really didn’t receive much rain, but we are still suffering from what we received last Sept. 2-4. Areas of the county received 8.25 inches in two days. Rivers and streams were flooded most of the week. Quite a few areas had higher water than they have had in years. On the yield side, corn is still disappointing to most. I haven’t seen a lot of good corn yet. Seed companies and many individuals are trying to figure out what the problems were. A lot of water and wet roots caused part of it. Other considerations are corn-on-corn, or corn-on-beans, and nitrogen application in the spring or in the fall, variety type. Corn is much drier than most anticipated. The average moisture was about 17 at one of the big elevators here. One elevator said it took in twice as much corn in one day as it did in a complete month last year. There have been four or five loads of beans brought in running anywhere from 12 to 13 moisture. Doug Uphoff, Shelbyville, Shelby County: Harvest is progressing quite rapidly. I remember one year we picked all of the corn in October. This year, it could be September, depending on the weather. There have been quite a few farming accidents this year. I heard of one in Alhambra in which a farmer was backed over by a combine. We had a kid run a yield sign and t-boned one of our empty grain trailers. Luckily, he wasn’t hurt. I also have heard of a truck running into a bank. So we need to just slow down, take our time, and be careful out there. We probably will cut some early beans in a week or less. There is some chiseling being done, and fertilizer is being applied in the area. Crop prices were steady for the week. Be careful out there and be safe. It doesn’t matter how fast you get it done if you get killed along the way. David Schaal, St. Peter, Fayette County: It was a big week here for corn harvest. Farmers were taking corn out of the fields at 15.5 to 18 percent moisture. Most are satisfied with the yields. Any low ground suffered some water damage, but as a whole, the yields are very respectable. There are some producers who are cutting Aprilplanted beans and the yields are very good. Everybody have a safe and prosperous harvest. Bob Biehl, Belleville, St. Clair County: We received about 1 inch of rain from tropical storm Hermine, and more rain was expected Friday night. Corn harvest was under way in many areas. Moisture ranged from dry to about 18 percent in many of the fields harvested. Corn is really standing nicely. Yields are very good with most fields averaging from 165 to 185 depending mainly on the soil type. I thought the heat hurt our yields 10 to 15 bushels an acre, and I think that was a close estimate because otherwise we had nearly perfect growing conditions this year. We completed harvesting our non-GMO acres and are hauling some to the terminals. So far, every load has passed, but it goes through several tests. Some aflatoxin is showing up in areas that were hit harder with drought conditions. Folks in the Mississippi River bottoms are nearly done, but yields are really off because of seep water from high river levels all year. Some beans are starting to turn but are still probably 10 to 12 days away from harvest.


Page 7 Monday, September 13, 2010 FarmWeek

CROPWATCHERS Ted Kuebrich, Jerseyville, Jersey County: The weather forecast for Jersey County called for 1 to 3 inches of rain Friday. Farmers who were shelling corn with moisture running 22 percent and lower were trying to get as much corn shelled as possible before the rain started. Yields are running between 190 to more than 240 so far. Kernels on the cob are not as deep and full as in past years. It looks like the very hot weather we had this summer had some effect on the grain quality. Prices at Jersey County Grain, Hardin: October corn, $4.25; January 2011 corn, $4.69; October 2010 beans, $10.29, January 2011 beans, $10.62. Dan Meinhart, Montrose, Jasper County: The weather was ideal for harvest last week. Light rain was falling Friday morning and was expected to last a day or two. Combines were running in the fields harvesting the Aprilplanted corn. Moisture for that corn was running in the teens with the May and June-planted corn carrying excessive moisture. Yields vary widely within the same field depending on how much water damage there was. So far, yields have been satisfactory. Fungicides and insecticides were applied to some of the Julyplanted beans during the Labor Day weekend. Some early-planted beans are beginning to turn yellow. The forecast is for good harvest weather this week.

Rick Corners, Centralia, Jefferson County: Corn harvest was in full swing and then Hermine dropped by. Don’t think she is nearly as mean as predicted. We only had 0.7 of an inch of rain as of Friday morning. As I said last week, corn is average depending on whether you had too much rain or too little. Bean harvest is a ways off yet.

Kevin Raber, Browns, Wabash County: It was raining as I called in this report Friday morning. We sure needed it. Maybe it will help some of the later soybeans. My corn yields have been about 15-20 bushels less than what I had anticipated. There have been some beans cut, but I haven’t heard of any yields.

Dean Shields, Murphysboro, Jackson County: The weather wasn’t quite as hot and humid as it has been. It made for better harvesting weather. I started harvesting corn about 10 days ago and finished up Thursday. That is the earliest I have been done with corn in many years. The downside is we just don’t have the yields here in Jackson County that we were expecting. Yields were down probably 20 to 30 percent from normal. The test weight is light, and the quality may not be so good. Some are having problems with aflatoxin, and some elevators have rejected loads. The beans were turning, and it won’t be long before we can start harvesting them. It is amazing how many pigweeds and waterhemp survived all of the treatment we gave them this year. Milo is headed out really nicely, and it’s looking pretty good. On the wheat side, if the weather stays dry this fall, the talk is we will get back to about the normal acres of wheat. Have a safe harvest.

Ken Taake, Ullin, Pulaski County: It was a dry week here in Pulaski County until Thursday about noon. We had light showers in the afternoon and then heavy rains overnight. We ended up with about 3 inches of rain by Friday morning. Corn harvest had been progressing pretty rapidly. We are about half finished with our corn harvest. It seems people are everywhere on corn harvest progress from a few who are just starting to those who are finished. A few soybeans have been cut in the area. We are probably at least a week to 10 days away from cutting any. Soybean yields that I have heard of ranged anywhere from 30 bushels to the acre up to 60. It will be like corn — highly variable. Please remember to be careful.

Reports received Friday morning. Expanded crop information available at FarmWeekNow.com

Corn harvest off to quick start; yields disappointing BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek

Many farmers in Illinois have been pleasantly surprised with the low moisture levels they have been finding in corn. The condition of the crop, which in numerous cases already is drier than it was at any time during the 2009 harvest season, is expected to lead to a quick harvest and greatly reduce farmers’ drying expenses compared to last year. Corn harvest as of the first of last week was 7 percent

complete statewide compared to 1 percent last year and the five-year average of 2 percent. “The upside (so far this harvest) is we’re picking corn that is testing 15 to 16 percent (moisture) right out of the field,” said Dale Hadden, a Morgan County farmer who is the Illinois Farm Bureau District 10 director and also serves on the IFB Profitability Advisory Team, which met last week in Bloomington. The portion of the corn crop (57 percent) that was mature last week was more than double the five-year aver-

age of 24 percent. “Compared to last year, it (harvest) will be real quick,” said Steve Fourez, a Vermilion County producer and Profitability Team member who reported moisture levels last week in his area ranged from 15.5 to 18.5 percent. “The way guys have started to go, by mid- to late October everything could be off (finished).” Unfortunately, corn harvest also may go quickly this season due in part to the fact that many farmers are handling fewer bushels than they expected.

“I thought going in I’d be happy to hit my 10-year rolling average, which is in the 185 (bushels per acre) range,” Fourez said. “But we’ll probably miss it by 20 bushels (on the downside).” Kent Schleich, a Fulton County farmer who is the IFB District 8 director and chairman of the Profitability Team, said corn yields in his area could be down 25 percent or more from historical averages. Hadden reported corn yields in his area so far

are less than expected. “The expectations were 160 to 200 (bushels per acre), but I think a lot of it will be in the 140 to 170 range,” Hadden said. Hadden said his area as of last week had received 45 to 46 inches of rain since April 24. Hot, dry conditions in August and possible compaction issues from last year’s wet harvest also could be playing a role, Fourez said. “It’s kind of been a disappointing harvest so far,” he added.

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Gordon VonQualen, Gardner, unloads a portion of his corn crop that so far this harvest hasn’t measured up to earlier yield expectations. VonQualen began corn harvest on Labor Day and yields on his farm thus far have averaged below 150 bushels per acre on ground that in recent years averaged about 200 bushels per acre. He attributed lagging corn yields to excessive rain in June followed by a lack of moisture in July and August. USDA on Friday projected an average corn yield in Illinois of 174 bushels per acre, down from its August estimate of 180 bushels. (Photo by Ken Kashian)

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FarmWeek Page 8 Monday, September 13, 2010

MARKETS

No sign of farmland market bubble — yet anticipates strong commodity prices moving forward and a possible increase in outside Prices for top-quality farminvestors who may seek farmland so far this year have land as a safe investment. inched to historically high levBut even if the farmland els, but there are no signs the market doesn’t crash similar to market has entered a bubble, what happened in the according to an expert housing market, there from the ag lending are some potential industry. ‘The ag economy continues cracks in the foundation Terry Hinds, vice to be relatively strong comthat could threaten president of business and corporate relations p a r e d t o t h e r e s t o f t h e farmland values down the road. with 1st Farm Credit economy’ “The biggest risk is Services in Normal, interest rates,” said last week told the IlliHinds, who recalled nois Farm Bureau — Terry Hinds interest rates for farmProfitability Advisory 1st Farm Credit Services land in the 1980s reached Team returns on farmnearly 20 percent. land remain strong relClass B ground, and $2,502 to The inevitable rise of interative to other investments. est rates, particularly if it cor“The ag economy continues $7,000 per acre for Class C ground. responds with a drop in farm to be relatively strong com“Farm real estate (value) income, could reduce demand pared to the rest of the econoand prices for farmland. Hinds my,” Hinds said. “That’s led to remains strong,” said Hinds, who noted Illinois farmland encouraged farmers who have some pretty solid real estate values from 1970 to 2010 not done so already to lock in values.” appreciated annually by an a portion of their current debt Hinds reported 1st Farm average of 5.9 percent. “That’s at low interest rates. Credit Services tracks farma pretty good long-term rate While the overall farmland land values and estimated of return for farmland.” market was positive, not all prices in July compared to the And the trend could contin- farmland prices increased in previous year increased 4 perue — 1st Farm Credit Services the past year. Hinds said the cent for Class A ground, 5.2

BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek

percent for Class B ground, and 2.4 percent for Class C ground. Farmland prices in the state as of July ranged from $6,302 to $8,797 per acre for Class A ground, $4,700 to $6,500 for

market has softened for lowerquality farmland and transitional land near urban areas. “The lower-quality land

(and recreational land) market has softened,” Hinds said. “We’re just not seeing as much demand for that property.”

Beef exports regain lost ground It’s been a long road for U.S. beef producers, but they finally appear to have established a foothold in some key export markets. U.S. beef exports, which were devastated in 2003 when BSE was discovered in an American cattle herd, so far this year are off to one of the best starts since the BSE incident caused more than 50 countries to ban imports of U.S. beef. U.S. beef exports in June were up 25 percent compared to June 2009, and for the first half of the year, beef exports increased 14 percent compared to a year ago, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) In Russia, which reopened its borders to U.S. beef in November 2007, U.S. beef exports this year are up nearly 300 percent and are at the highest level since 2003. “More muscle meat is going into high-quality (Russian) restaurants,” said John Brooks, USMEF regional director of Europe, Russia, and the Middle East. “We are getting U.S. beef back into that sector, but it’s proving to be a challenge.” Brooks noted U.S. beef exports to Russia likely will decline in coming months, though, as the volume of sales is nearing tariff rate quotas. Elsewhere, the beef muscle meat business is increasing in Egypt as U.S. prices are competitive with those from South America. Economies generally are growing in the Middle East due in part to higher oil prices in recent years, Brooks said. Sales of U.S. beef are on an uptrend in the European Union partly because of the consistent quality of the American product, according to Brooks. “Three years ago, most U.S. beef (exported to Europe) was going to Germany and Italy. Now, we have a regular market in 12 countries,” said Brooks, who predicted a 50 percent increase in U.S. beef sales to Europe in 2011. “It’s a small market but growing fast.” The U.S. in 2009 supplied 6 percent of Europe’s chilled beef imports compared to just 1 percent in 2007. Meanwhile, U.S. beef exports to Asia, including Japan, were up 29 percent the first half of the year despite a 20-month age restriction on eligible cattle. And in South Korea, the export volume the first half of 2010 was nearly double the pace of 2009. — Daniel Grant


FarmWeek Page 9 Monday, September 13, 2010

SCHOLARSHIPS

GROWMARK announces collegiate scholarship winners Thirty-nine college students from Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be able to continue their education with help from the regional agricultural supply cooperative, GROWMARK. They are recipients of GROWMARK-sponsored scholarships aimed at promoting higher education in agriculture and business. “GROWMARK invests more than $41,000 annually on scholarships. We’re investing today for a return tomorrow,” says Steve German, GROWMARK university relations and member employment manager. GROWMARK has been supporting college students with scholarships since the early 1960s. Currently, they are awarded to students majoring in agriculture or accounting at 14 universities and colleges. Each educational institution is responsible for the selection process and awarding scholarships. University scholarship recipients are honored each year at the GROWMARK annual meeting in Chicago. Students from Illinois receiving scholarships are: Illinois State University Lucas Benning, son of Carl and Karen Benning of Shobonier, majoring in agronomy management. John Heiser, son of Jeff and Debbie Heiser of Byron, majoring in agricultural education. Michael Moore, son of Ronald and Deborah Moore of Roseville, majoring in horticulture. Rosalie Sanderson, daughter of Dan and Hattie Sanderson of Clare, majoring in animal science industry management. Kaylin Stoddard, daughter of Bruce and Carolyn Stoddard of Monticello, majoring in accountancy. Illinois Wesleyan University Brittany Kiefer, daughter of Rich and Gale Kiefer of Gridley majoring in accounting.

Iowa State University Jaymes Maciejewski, son of Dan and Peg Maciejewski of Princeton, majoring in agricultural studies. Murray State University Becky Mosbacher, daughter of Steven and Doris Mosbacher of Prairie du Rocher, majoring in agribusiness. Southern Illinois University Christy Ford, daughter of J.L. and Angie Ford of Greenfield, majoring in general agriculture.

Kelsey Graber, daughter of John and Julie Graber of Heyworth, majoring in agribusiness economics. Bobbi Jean Petet, daughter of Robert Petet of Fairfield, and Debbie Petet of McLeansboro, majoring in plant and soil science. Jordon Ridgely, son of Jan and Lisa Ridgely of Olney, majoring in agribusiness economics. Derek Weiler, son of Bill and Debbie Weiler of Claremont, majoring in agribusiness economics. University of Illinois Cassie Becker, daughter of Steve and Amy Becker of Car-

lyle, majoring in agricultural communications. Hayley Bunselmeyer, daughter of Bob and Sue Bunselmeyer of Decatur, majoring in crop sciences. Travis Huisinga, son of Roger and Barbara Huisinga of Mansfield, majoring in agricultural and consumer economics. Carrie Kuhns, daughter of Ervin and Nancy Kuhns of Sullivan, majoring in agricultural leadership education. David Marburger, son of Edward and Christina Marburger of Mount Olive, majoring in crop sciences. Amelia Martens, daughter of Patrick and Annette Martens

of Orion, majoring in agricultural communications. She is the recipient of the Jonathan Baldwin Turner Scholarship. GROWMARK sponsors the scholarship to honor Melvin E. Sims, president of GROWMARK Inc. from 1959-1980. Brad Pilcher, son of Mike and Mary Jo Pilcher of Paxton, majoring in agricultural sales and marketing. He is the recipient of the Herndon Scholarship, established to honor Fred E. Herndon, president of a GROWMARK predecessor company from 1931-1959. University of Wisconsin Platteville Christopher Flikkema, son

of Alan and Rosemary Flikkema of Lanark, majoring in agricultural business. Ashley Veldhuizen, daughter of Vern and Alice Veldhuizen of Richmond, majoring in agricultural education. Western Illinois University Ross Fogle, son of David and Leanne Fogle of Congerville, majoring in agronomy. Jordan Haney, son of Jeff and Cheri Haney of Winchester, majoring in agriculture business. Mellisa Herwig, daughter of Tim and Kelly Henert of Franklin Grove, majoring in animal sciences.


FarmWeek Page 10 Monday, September 13, 2010

RESEARCH

U of I, ISU prove cattlemen can save by feeding DDGs BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek

Researchers at the University of Illinois and Illinois State University (ISU) have proven cattlemen can reduce their feed costs by incorporating distillers dried grains (DDGs) into their livestock feed. Although the universities researched different diet combinations, the separate studies support feeding of co-products to reduce feed costs. U of I researchers discovered that feeding co-products and cornstalk residue in the winter can save cow-calf producers up to $1 per day per cow when compared to feeding hay. ISU researchers learned feeding corn silage and high moisture DDGs saved from $32 to $221 per cow per year, depending on the percentage of DDGs contained in the ration. “If you incorporate DDGs in the cattle’s diet, you will save considerable money,�

said Paul Walker, ISU animal science professor who conducted the study. Walker added the less expensive corn silage/DDGs diet means cattlemen would save less per day compared to a hay/DDGs diet. “Our goal is to help producers identify which feedstuffs and delivery methods best fit their operation, resulting in the lowest possible feed cost for their operation and the most profitability,� said Dan Shike, U of I assistant professor of animal sciences who conducted the study. “Regardless, producers have options and can increase their profitability using combinations of co-products.� At the Orr Research Center near Perry, U of I researchers conducted feeding experiments with cows calved between January and March. They were evaluated from calving until breeding. Shike noted cattlemen have several feed options available including corn co-products

Cows eat a ration high in distillers grains as part of an Illinois State University research study on the university’s farm near Lexington. (File photo)

and cornstalks. Cornstalk bales are an adequate source of energy, but are low in protein and need to be supplemented, especially for cows in early and peak

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lactation, he said. The U of I researchers compared new co-products developed from improved fractionation processes. They compared different diets: free-choice cornstalk residue with 14.3 pounds of distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS); free-choice cornstalk residue with 9.7 pounds of corn bran and 4.8 pounds of DDGS; free-choice cornstalk residue with 11.2 pounds of corn bran, and 3.3 pounds of high-protein DDGS; and free-choice hay. “We wanted to find the most economical way to feed cows in the winter without sacrificing performance,� Shike said. “Our study revealed that producers could save about $1 a day per cow when feeding a combination of cornstalk residue and coproducts as compared to hay.� The ISU study compared the performance of heifers in

late gestation and cows in early lactation fed a typical ration of shelled corn, soybean meal, and corn silage with those fed rations that replaced the corn and soybean meal with three levels of DDGs. The high-DDGs rations supplied 12 percent crude protein (CP)/19 percent DDGs on a dry-matter basis; 16 percent CP/35 percent DDGs; and 20 percent CP/50 percent DDGs. The per-day cost for highDDGs rations on a dry matter basis was $1.16 for 19 percent DDGs, $1.23 for 35 percent DDGs, and $1.22 for 50 percent DDGs. To have value as cattle feed, distillers grains must be high in protein and fat, said ISU’s Walker. Shike advised cattlemen to make arrangements now to buy cornstalk bales and to price co-products, depending on available storage.


FarmWeek Page 11 Monday, September 13, 2010

RESEARCH

Scientists ‘handicapping’ potential biomass pests BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek

University of Illinois researchers are trying to stay ahead of possible biomass crop pests and resulting problems for those crops as well as for corn and soybeans. “We are trying to target which (biomass crop) pests to focus on, and what (are) the potential challenges if (biomass crops) serve as reservoirs for viruses or leaf hoppers,” said Mike Gray, U of I professor of agricultural entomology. Gray and Jarrad Prasifka, a researcher with the U of I’s Energy Biosciences Institute, described their research on insect pests during last week’s Energy Farm Tour. It was the second open house and tour for the new research farm located south of the U of I’s South Farms. “We’re trying to handicap them (insect pests),” Prasifka said. “No matter what biomass feedstock becomes common, nature will eventually catch up to it.” On the Energy Farm, researchers intentionally have infested plants in mini plots with insect pests. One project is comparing the effect of insects on miscanthus and corn that are growing beside each other. Thus far, the insects prevalent in Illinois don’t seem to damage biomass crops, according to Prasifka. However, researchers are paying specific attention to insects that feed on perennial biomass crops as well as other crops to prevent situations in which pests would move from

Jarrad Prasifka, left, a researcher with the University of Illinois’ Energy Biosciences Institute, demonstrates during the U of I Energy Farm Tour last week how to find caterpillar damage in cordgrass. Prasifka, who is studying possible insect pests of biomass crops, gave one of several field presentations on the research farm located south of the Urbana campus. (Photo by Kay Shipman)

Energy Farm at a glance The University of Illinois Energy Farm is one of the university’s newest research farms and is part of the Energy Biosciences Institute: • Initiated: 2007 • Size: 320 acres • Projects: More than 100 research and production activities • Crops: A wide variety, including prairie plants, perennial grasses, corn, soybeans, and trees one type of crop into another. In general, grasses that are native to Illinois, such as switchgrass and some prairie grasses, have more insect pests compared to miscanthus, which originated in Asia. From work over the last two years, researchers have learned biomass crop pests vary from region to region. While Midwestern farmers contend with similar pests, farmers in the North and those in the South face different pests, Prasifka explained. Researchers also discovered little is known about some perennial grass pests. For example, a caterpillar that destroys cordgrass seed production was discovered in 1916, but apparently hasn’t been studied since 1917. “The humbling part is to admit what we don’t know,” Prasifka said.

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FarmWeek Page 12 Monday, September 13, 2010

FB IN ACTION

Stephenson Co. FB hosts its adopted legislator, constituents for ag tours BY BRUCE JOHNSON

Stephenson County Farm Bureau (SCFB) recently marked its third “A Day in the Country” with its adopted legislator and a busload of his constituents. The event showcased agriculture in the county and the people involved with it. The visitors included “adopted” legislator state Sen. Ed Maloney (D-Chicago) and a group from his district that included teachers, school administrators, students, police, and public service professionals. The tour started with a stop at the Freeport/Stephenson County Visitor’s Center before heading to Hunter Haven Farms near Pearl City. Scott Brenner, the farm’s herdsman, and Nate Dinderman, feed manager, gave the group a tour of the 850-cow dairy operation and its methane digester system. A newborn calf was a hit with visiting children.

At Bremmer Farms near Pearl City, the group ate locally produced rib eye sandwiches and hamburgers for lunch. SCFB Vice President Chad Bremmer gave a tour of his farm, including a line-up of his farm equipment. The next stop was in Kent and Pearl Valley Eggs/Pearl Valley Organix, where the group was welcomed by Ben Thompson. The urban visitors were impressed with the 1.1-million hen layer operation and organic fertilizer production facility. The comprehensive tour gave the visitors a new perspective on the complexities of the poultry industry. The final stop was at Freeport’s Alber Ice Cream Parlor. The visitors received a gift bag with assorted items and agricultural information. SCFB and Maloney were first connected through Illinois Farm Bureau’s Adopt-aLegislator program in September 2004. County Farm

Scott Brenner, herdsman for Hunter Haven Farms near Pearl City, explained to Sen. Ed Maloney (D-Chicago, in black shirt) and several of his constituents the workings of the dairy operation. The dairy farm stop was one of several during “A Day in the Country” sponsored by the Stephenson County Farm Bureau for Maloney, the county’s “adopted” legislator. (Photo courtesy of Stephenson County Farm Bureau)

Bureau leaders plan to make another visit to Maloney’s Chicago district on Friday and present him with a “Friend of Agriculture” award. The Maloney relationship has spawned discussion of other opportunities includ-

ing return visits to the county by students of the Chicago High School for Agricultural Sciences and home-schooled groups. It also has sparked discussions among local and regional travel and tourism profes-

sionals regarding agritourism and educational partnerships. Bruce Johnson is the manager of the Stephenson County Farm Bureau. He can be reached via email at stephfb@aeroinc.net.

Golf outing generates $12,100 for AITC program The Kendall County Farm Bureau Ag in the Classroom (AITC) program will benefit to the tune of $12,100, thanks to the recent county Farm Bureau Young Leaders’ “Last Chance of the Summer” golf outing. One hundred and six golfers, including 11 members of the Young Leaders Committee, participated in the outing at Whitetail Ridge Golf Course. The golf event raised $10,000 for the AITC program. A drawing for a trip to Riviera Maya, Mexico — the tickets for which had been sold all summer — was conducted during the final day of the golf outing. That project generated another $2,100 for the AITC program. When it comes to cutting edge genetics and top-of-the-line trait combinations you can’t do better than FS Seed Corn. Developed specifically for the needs of Midwest growers, the high-yielding genetic foundations of FS Seed Corn are offering farmers more high-performance options than ever before. So if you’re looking for more ways to maximize your return on investment — make the smart choice. FS Seed Corn.

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FarmWeek Page 13 Monday, September 13, 2010

FROM THE COUNTIES

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RUNDY — Farm Bureau and WILL AM580 Radio will sponsor a fall marketing outlook meeting at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday at the American Legion, Mazon. Pizza will be served. The panel will feature Bill Gentry, Risk Management Commodities, Lafayette, Ind.; Curt Kimmel, Bates Commodities, Normal; and Jacquie Voeks, Stewart Peterson Group, Champaign. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-942-6400 for dinner reservations or more information. ANCOCK — The annual conservation tillage field day will be from 4 to 7 p.m. Tuesday north of Carthage on Highway 94. There will be an education seminar and pork chop dinner served after the field demonstrations. Mike Rogge, University of Illinois Extension crop specialist; Dick Burling, Hancock County Farm Service Agency county executive director; and Lori Bollin, Hancock County Natural Resources and Conservation Service (HCSWCD) district conservationist, will be the speakers. Continuing education credits have been applied. Call Becky Buckert at the HCSWCD office at 217-357-2188, ext. 3, for more information. • The Illini West FFA will sponsor its annual plot day from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. Saturday at the LaHarpe plot, south of the clubhouse on South G Street. A barbecue pork sandwich lunch will be served. ACKSON — Membership dues are due now. If you have questions about your membership, call the Farm Bureau office. AWRENCE — Farm Bureau will sponsor a bus trip Thursday, Oct. 14, to the Covered Bridge Festival,

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Parke County, Ind. The bus will leave the First Christian Church parking lot in Lawrenceville at 6:30 a.m. (Central Daylight Time) and return by 8:30 p.m. Cost is $15, which includes transportation, snacks, two-hour tour of covered bridges, and dinner. Call the Farm Bureau office at 618-943-2610 by Friday, Oct. 8, for reservations or more information. EE — Farm Bureau members may buy one slow moving vehicle emblem at the Farm Bureau office and get one free. This is in honor of National Farm Safety and Health Week Sept. 20-24. TARK — Farm Bureau has “Pass with Caution” stickers, slow moving vehicle emblems, and “Farm Country Stay Alert” signs available.

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Call the Farm Bureau office at 309-286-7481 for more information. • Raffle tickets for a pedal tractor are available at the Farm Bureau office. Proceeds will benefit Ag in the Classroom activities. Drawing will be Monday, Sept. 20, after the Fall Festival. Call the Farm Bureau office for more information. NION — Membership dues are due now. If you have questions about your membership, call the Farm Bureau office. ERMILION — Farm Bureau, Vermilion Advantage, and Neuhoff Media will sponsor a candidates’ forum on agricultural and rural issues at 7 p.m. Thursday at the Farm Bureau auditorium. Candidates for

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the 52nd District Senate seat and the 104th and 105th Representative District seats have been invited to attend. The forum will be broadcast on WDAN and {vermilioncountyfirst.com}. INNEBAGO — The Winnebago and Boone Prime Timers will sponsor a “Treat your Senses” tour Thursday, Sept. 30. The group will tour the Wind Ridge Herb Farm at 9:30 a.m. Following the tour, participants will go to the McEachran Homestead at 11:30 a.m. for wine tasting, lunch, and a presentation of the history of the homestead. Cost is $22. Call the Farm Bureau office at 962-963 for reservations or more information. • The Winnebago and

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Boone County Farm Bureaus will sponsor a bus trip Wednesday, Oct. 13, to Old World Wisconsin. Participants will see restored structures and demonstrations of the work and play that took place during the early 19th Century. Lunch will be at the Clausing Barn café. This is a self-guided tour, but there will be an allday tram transportation pass. The bus will leave the Farm Bureau office at 8:30 a.m. and return by 5 p.m. Cost is $32 for members and $37 for nonmembers. Call the Farm Bureau office for reservations or more information. “From the counties” items are submitted by county Farm Bureau managers. If you have an event or activity open to all members, contact your county Farm Bureau manager.

Federal Crop Insurance is changing for 2011

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Auction Calendar Thurs. Sept. 16. 7 p.m. Cass Co. Land Auction. Mary L. Lockhart Estate. Sanert Auction Service. www.sanertauctions.com Thurs., Sept. 16. 10 a.m. Farmland Auction. Donald Hougas, NORWAY, IL. Dick McConville and Marty McConville, Auctioneers. www.mcconvillerealty.com Sat., Sept. 18. 10 a.m. Farm machinery, livestock and lawn eq. Les Reel and Jim Miller. Sat., Sept. 18. 9:30 a.m. Real Estate Auction. Shirley M. Miller Trust, DIXON, IL. Lenny Bryson and Mark Ebert, Auctioneers. topauctions247.com/paspolo Wed., Sept. 22. 11:30 a.m. Whiteside Co. Land Auction. Fulton Land Development, LLC, FULTON, IL. Lenny Bryson, Auctioneer. www.lennybrysonauctioneer.com Wed., Sept. 22. 7 p.m. Land Auction. Lotta Moore Heirs, CLINTON, IL. Haycraft Auction Co. Inc. www.haycraftauctions.com Fri., Sept. 24. 10 a.m. 277 Ac. Macoupin Co. Farmland. Estate of Catherine Klaus, WAGGONER, IL. Mike Crabtree, Auctioneer. www.mikecrabtreeauctions.com Sat., Sept. 25. 10 a.m. Farm machinery. Estate of William E. Bittner, PAW PAW, IL. Espe Auctioneering. www.espeauctions.com Wed., Sept. 29. 6 p.m. 71.49 Ac. Marshall Co. Wayne Gallup and Elaine M. Hecathorn, LACON, IL. Tim Placher Auctions.

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FarmWeek Page 14 Monday, September 13, 2010

PROFITABILITY

More consolidation on horizon in plant food world? BY ROD WELLS

The plant food landscape changed dramatically last spring with the acquisition of Terra Industries by CF Industries. The saga of this combination played out in the press for more than a year and included an unsolicited offer for CF Rod Wells by Agrium. Prior to the consummation of the Terra/CF deal, fertilizer behemoth Yara stepped in with a proposal to acquire Terra. Stories such as this certainly are not the “norm” in the

fertilizer industry. Now word comes of yet another unsolicited acquisition of a global fertilizer player. On August 23, PotashCorp said its board of directors had unanimously voted to reject an unsolicited offer by mining giant BHP Billiton. The BHP offer of $130 per share would create a deal valued at $40 billion. In comments following the public notification of the offer, PotashCorp (PCS) Chairman Dallas Howe Jr. noted, “The fertilizer industry is emerging from the recent global economic downturn, and we feel strongly that PotashCorp shareholders

should benefit from the current and potential value of the company.” To be sure, BHP has the financial wherewithal to pursue the PCS deal. The company reported profits for the year ending June 30, 2010, of $12.7 billion on sales of $52.8 billion. PotashCorp currently has an estimated 20 percent of the world potash capacity under its direct control, making it the largest producer in the world. In addition, the company also owns phosphate and nitrogen production assets, each of which holds the world’s No. three position. On the heels of the possi-

ble BHP/PCS combination, speculation continues on a potential merger within the Russian fertilizer industry. Large individual ownership positions have been taken in two large potash producers, Uralkali and Silvinit, within the last several months. A combination of these two producers would result in the world’s second-largest potash producer. The Russian International News Agency, RIA Novosti, reported Russian billionaire Suleiman Kerimov, a substantial shareholder in both Uralkali and Silvinit, met with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and offered to

purchase 51 percent of stateowned producer Belaruskali for a reported $7.5 billion. Belarus denies this meeting took place. A three-way combination of Uralkali, Silvinit, and Belaruskali would easily form the world’s largest producer of potash. There is truly belief in the long-term value of fertilizer and the agricultural sector, given the increased demand for food and feed in this world. And so goes another boring day in the fertilizer business. Rod Wells is GROWMARK’s director of agronomy sales and operations. His e-mail address is rwells@growmark.com.

USDA raises income, export projections for agriculture BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek

The near-term economic outlook for U.S. agriculture appears to be favorable, based on recent USDA projections. USDA this month forecast ag exports for fiscal year 2011 will reach $113 billion. If realized, revenue generated from ag exports would be the second-highest on record and would be up $5.5 billion from the 2010 estimate and nearly $17 billion more than in 2009. USDA this month also projected a sharp rise (24 percent) in net farm income. Net farm income in 2010 was projected

at $77.1 billion, which would be an increase of $14.9 billion compared to 2009.

‘In general, you have to be impressed with the strong demand scenario.’ — Darrel Good U of I ag economist

The current net farm income projection for 2010 also would be $12.3 billion above

M A R K E T FA C T S

Feeder pig prices reported to USDA*

Weight 10 lbs. 40 lbs. 50 lbs. Receipts

Range Per Head Weighted Ave. Price $33.89-$43.00 $39.31 $52.00-$59.10 $57.43 n/a n/a This Week Last Week 32,872 26,527 *Eastern Corn Belt prices picked up at seller’s farm

Eastern Corn Belt direct hogs (plant delivered) Carcass Live

(Prices $ per hundredweight) This week Prev. week $78.84 $75.73 $58.34 $56.04

Change 3.11 2.30

USDA five-state area slaughter cattle price Steers Heifers

This week $97.46 $97.51

(Thursday’s price) Prv. week Change $95.45 2.01 $96.00 1.51

CME feeder cattle index — 600-800 Lbs. This is a composite price of feeder cattle transactions in 27 states. (Prices $ per hundredweight) Prev. week Change 113.85 -0.14

This week 113.71

Lamb prices Slaughter Prices - Negotiated, Live, wooled and shorn 115-145 lbs. for 128.09-144 $/cwt., dressed, no sales reported.

Export inspections (Million bushels)

Week ending Soybeans Wheat Corn 09-2-10 13.9 22.1 38.1 08-26-10 8.0 27.5 51.3 Last year 12.6 17.5 49.0 Season total 3.0 262.2 15.8 Previous season total 7.4 201.8 25.5 USDA projected total 1470 1200 1975 Crop marketing year began June 1 for wheat and Sept. 1 for corn and soybeans.

the average for the past decade of $64.6 billion per year. “Increased agricultural exports, especially of grains and meat, have helped drive this rebound,” said Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack. The jump in ag exports and income projections are due to increased demand, according to Darrel Good, University of Illinois Extension ag economist. Demand for grain and meat has increased due in part to economic recovery in parts of the world along with a shortage of grain caused by a severe drought in Russia and surrounding countries. “In general, you have to be impressed with the strong demand scenario,” Good said. “We’re seeing strong demand for grain. The Russian (drought) situation adds to that.” U.S. grain and feed exports were projected to increase $4 billion in fiscal year 2011, although oilseed exports were expected to decline by $2.6 billion due to a rebound in South American soybean crush. Meanwhile, meat exports the first half of this year increased 14 percent for beef and 3 percent for pork compared to the same time last year. Other economic indicators are positive for the ag industry. USDA projected farm business equity (assets minus debt) will rise 3.5 percent. The value of farm business real estate was projected to increase 2.9 percent while farm business debt was projected to decrease 4.2 percent. “As the rest of the American economy climbs out of the recession, American agriculture is helping lead the charge,” Vilsack said. “We expect to sustain this important progress.” Overall, U.S. agriculture this year is expected to generate a trade surplus of $30.5 billion.

USDA to study corn production practices With near-record-breaking corn plantings in the ground, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) soon will begin contacting corn producers to learn about their production practices during the 2010 growing season. As part of the Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS), USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) will gather data on farmers’ chemical use, pest management, and irrigation practices for corn. “Conducted every fall, ARMS serves as the primary source of information on the production practices, resource use, and economic well-being of America’s farm operations and farm households,” said Brad Schwab, director of the Illinois NASS field office. “The survey results help agricultural leaders and decisionmakers better understand how producers cope with risk, adapt to policy changes, and make decisions about chemical use, new technologies, and many other aspects of farming,” he said. This year, ARMS will focus on corn, including both conventional and organic varieties. This will be the first time since 2005 that ARMS has focused on corn production and the first time ever that it has looked at organic corn production. Beginning in October, NASS representatives will conduct face-to-face interviews with nearly 7,500 corn growers nationwide, including about 350 in Illinois. “When contacted, producers will be asked to provide information on their fertilizer, nutrient, bio-control, and pesticide applications, as well as their pest management and irrigation practices,” added Schwab, “Early next year, we will follow up with some of the participants to obtain additional economic data.” As with all NASS surveys, information provided by respondents is by law confidential. NASS safeguards the privacy of all respondents and publishes data only in aggregate form, ensuring that no individual operation or grower can be identified. For more information on NASS surveys and reports, visit {www.nass.usda.gov}, or call the NASS Illinois field office at 800-622-9865.


FarmWeek Page 15 Monday, September 13, 2010

PROFITABILITY Corn Strategy

C A S H S T R AT E G I S T

Corn yield coming into focus The release of the USDA September crop report makes it easier for analysts to identify the corn yield potential. This is the first time USDA released the plant and ear population data collected in the objective yield states. Using the ear population in each of the states and the state yield forecasts, one can derive a potential ear weight. Combined with historic data, one can then start to project a potential level for the final yield. The pattern of the weekly crop condition ratings and the weather are somewhat similar to 1998. Using that as a guideline, and the fact that maturity is ahead of schedule, we wouldn’t expect the ear counts to drop much, if at all, from this report. The implied ear weight for the 10 objective yield states was .3458 of a pound. The average ear weight over the past five years has declined slightly through the series of

Basis charts

reports. But the final weight was less than 1 percent below the September weight. In 1998, the final weight was above the September level. But allowing the ear weight to decline to .34 of a pound, a level closer to the average, would result in a yield close to 161 bushels. Even allowing for the largest decline in recent years only drops the yield to 158.5 bushels. But given the advanced maturity, we are inclined to think USDA should have a good grasp on ear weights and ear counts. From a production perspective, acreage will come into play in the October report. USDA analysts will have the acreage data you report to your local Farm Service Agency (FSA) office available to them. Some believe the current corn acreage numbers are a little too low and soybeans acreage is too high. One firm thinks corn acreage is 1 million acres too low. On average, though, the acreage tends to decline slightly since the USDA started using the FSA data. But a 1million-acre increase would add 160 million bushels to the crop size. For soybeans, it’s not as easy to draw parallels to prior years because pod/seed development is still ongoing when USDA collects data for the September report. But, on average, pod counts and pod weights tend to go higher. That implies a larger yield is possible. Using 1998 as a possible guideline, yields went up in the September report, then down slightly by the final number. That, and current data, indicate this is going to be a good crop. AgriVisor endorses crop insurance by

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2010 crop: December futures have moved to a level where upside progress will be more difficult. History has proven it’s rarely a mistake to sell a good harvest rally. Boost your sales to 70 percent now, especially if you store corn commercially. Storage costs are too steep to warrant storing corn off the farm. 2011 crop: Given current prices and the possibility of expanded plantings, make a 10 percent sale now. Fundamentals: USDA’s reduction in its yield forecast to 162.5 bushels will encourage market bulls to believe the yield forecast will eventually drop below 160 bushels. We are not as certain, for reasons outlined in the article to the left. At the same time, one has to consider the potentially negative demand implications of higher prices at the beginning of the marketing year. Even though we don’t have a true “drought” crop, the situation brings to mind the adage, “short crop, long tail.”

Soybean Strategy 2010 crop: Demand needs to remain exceptionally strong to hold prices at these levels. A South American crop problem is about the only thing that could carry prices higher yet. Boost sales to 70 percent now, especially if you store soybeans commercially. 2011 crop: If South America has another big crop, new-crop prices will be significantly lower this spring. Make an initial 10 percent sale now. Fundamentals: USDA’s increase in yield and production will make it more difficult for prices to hold current levels. Demand is strong enough to keep prices from collapsing, but isn’t strong enough to keep prices from dropping 50 to 80 cents into harvest. Chinese demand continues to be good, but there are signs those shipments may start to slow. That could precipitate a slowing of new sales to China. Crush margins on imported soybeans remain slightly negative for the Chinese.

Wheat Strategy 2010 crop: Since prices broke from the early August high, the market has shifted into a sideways trend. A break below the 20-day moving average on Chicago December futures would suggest the trend could be turning down again. Use current strength for catch-up sales. Storage hedges, or hedge-to-arrive (HTA) contracts for winter delivery are still the best tool. 2011 crop: Use rallies to $7.40 on Chicago July 2011 futures for catch-up sales. If

basis is wide compared to this past summer, consider an HTA contract. Fundamentals: The latest USDA report took away some of the bullish argument with world wheat ending stocks increased 3 million metric tons (mmt) to 177.79 mmt. The trade had been expecting to see a modest tightening. U.S. ending stocks were lowered to 902 million bushels because of an increase in exports, but it’s still a historically large number. Export sales remain good, with sales totaling 1.613 mmt. last week.


FarmWeek Page 16 Monday, September 13, 2010

PERSPECTIVES

Thanks, hard-working Americans

Voter turnout was critical in several close elections Bill Brady’s margin over runner-up Kurt Dillard “Every vote counts” has become a cliché in modern American politics. It is a separate ques- was only 197 votes — out of three quarters of tion to ask if every vote matters. a million votes cast. In state legislative and local elections, the The answer is that the chances of our efforts affecting the outcome chances of our individual vote increase dramatically. In fact, my hometown of mattering and whether our Bloomington has had more than its share of efforts to educate and encourextremely close contests. age our friends and neighbors Back in 1992, for example, Bill Brady won to cast a ballot will make a difhis first race for the Illinois Statehouse over ference depends upon the total incumbent Gordon Ropp by only eight votes. turnout and closeness of the TARI Probably most of us realize that we could make election. RENNER a serious effort going door-to-door on our own The lower the turnout and block and come up with at least eight additional the closer the election, the greater the chance that our indi- votes for someone. In 2000, our state Rep. Dan Brady won his vidual vote — and broader efforts in influencfirst term by only 45 votes (Dan is not related ing others — can affect the outcome. It is a general axiom of elections in America to Bill. In fact, Dan defeated Bill’s brother, Ed, that voter turnout in presidential election years, who was the runner up). And in the 2009 Bloomington mayoral elecsuch as 2004, 2008, etc., is considerably higher tion, I experienced a cliffhanger myself. I lost than in so-called midterm election years of the mayor’s race to incumbent Steve Stockton 2006, 2010, etc. by 15 votes, which was the closest margin in the Illinois’ recent pattern is rather typical. For city’s history. example in the It is, therefore, 2006 midterm election, 3,487,989 Editor’s note: This is the first in a series of reasonable to conpeople voted for columns that will focus on Farm Bureau mem- clude that our our state’s chief bers’ responsibilities in the direct participation executive. In 2008, upcoming election. The in the electoral 5,522,371 Illigoal is to encourage Farm process can make a noisans voted for Bureau members to be- difference. The chances of our nation’s chief come active in the political executive — an process and elect candi- our participation increase of more dates committed to serv- tipping the balance are the greatest in than 2 million. ing agricultural interests. midterm election The turnout in years, primaries, primary elections extremely close contests, and in local or state tends to be even lower in midterm elections legislative elections. when the presidential contests are absent. Under these circumstances, the probability that our individual vote and efforts to persuade oth- Tari Renner is a political science professor at Illinois Wesleyan University, Bloomington, and helps students ers to vote will affect the race increases. In fact, the primaries for both parties’ nomi- conduct state and local public opinion polls. A threeterm county board member, Renner also ran for Connations for governor were extremely close in gress in 2004. His e-mail address is trenner@iwu.edu. this year’s primaries. On the Republican side,

Hard to believe, but summer is over and we’ve celebrated Labor Day. I have much respect for the hard-working men and women that labor in the trenches. I’m not talking about big corporation managers, about Wall Street, about political big wigs, or university profesJOHN sors. I want to BLOCK honor the carpenter, the plumber, the factory worker, the farmer growing the food, the rancher caring for the cattle, the workers in the processing plants — I don’t think they get the appreciation they deserve. We are all aware that jobs are scarce with unemployment close to 10 percent. However, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack’s recent review of the rural economic picture is encouraging. We probably all would agree that 2009 was not a great year. Our input costs soared. In fact, the nitrogen fertilizer in 2009 cost twice as much as it did for this year’s crop. Now we seem to have set-

tled into a comfort zone that may last for a couple of years. USDA reports farm income up 24 percent. Farm asset values are up 2.5 percent. The income improvement is across the board — cattle, hogs, dairy, poultry, and eggs. Grain prices are strong, and we have a pretty good crop. We can thank drought in Russia and Ukraine for better grain prices. Also during my recent trip to Germany, I learned the German farmers couldn’t harvest their wheat because of too much rain. I recently read they still are having trouble harvesting the crop. U.S. agriculture seems to be riding above the difficult economic times with which much of the country is struggling. And Secretary Vilsack went on to say, “The outlook going forward into fiscal year 2011 is even more promising.” The end of summer means the start of fall. Be safe with harvest. John Block of Gilson, a U.S. agriculture secretary in the Reagan administration, is a senior policy adviser with the Washington, D.C., firm of Olsson, Frank, Weeda, and Terman. His e-mail address is jblock@ofwlaw.com.

LETTER TO THE EDITOR ‘Good life’ still exists in rural areas Editor: I enjoyed the letter from William Waters in the Aug. 30 edition. I recall during the 1970s, agricultural economists, advisers, bankers, schoolteachers, and, yes, even the Department of Agriculture from coast to coast used one battle cry: “Get big or get out!” The governmental agenda was painfully clear. It is easier to manipulate a few large farmers than it is to control many little ones. I have noticed many small operations springing up during my travels in recent years. Frequently, you just can’t see them from the hard road.

Of course, they have jobs on the side, it is necessary. But they have a few chickens, pigs, cattle, etc. Gardens are still out there. I stumble onto my share of them. Home canning and dehydrating seem to be on the increase. So what if they don’t own a semi to haul grain to river or rail? A 4020 cycling a 350-bushel wagon to town is all they need to pay the real estate tax bill. They raise their own food and know exactly where it came from and what went into it. Excess food can always be sold locally, market style. Sounds like the path to a good life to me. CHET PEUGH, Chadwick

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