FARM INCOME for 2009 will drop as much as 38 percent compared to last year, according to a projection from USDA. ............................2
AN ATLANTA FARMER’S solar powered pump and fence will be highlighted on a National Small Farm Conference tour. ..................9
AG AND SHIPPING interests seek funds for construction of new 1,200-foot locks on the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. ..........12
Monday, September 7, 2009
Two sections Volume 37, No. 36
Cap-and-trade protest rings throughout state BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
Last week in Springfield, Illinois Vice President Rich Guebert Jr. led an estimated 900 producers, laborers, business owners, and consumers in the chant: “No cap and trade! No cap and trade!” The call, issued at one of a series of Energy Citizens rallies nationwide opposing U.S. House greenhouse gas reduction legislation, reverberated across Illinois — from the annual Farm Progress Show in Decatur to a small business roundtable in St. Louis cosponsored by Collinsville Republican Rep. John Shimkus, a long-time cap-and-trade opponent. The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee reportedly has delayed approval of a cap-and-trade plan until late September. Guebert led rally speakers representing small business, energy, agribusiness, government, and educational interests and opposed to the existing House plan. Home Builders Association of Illinois President Terry Ruhland suggested energy costs related to the plan would “add sharply to the price of a new
FarmWeekNow.com View video of the Springfield cap-and-trade rally at FarmWeekNow.com.
home, distancing more and more working families from the dream of home ownership.” Illinois Fertilizer and Chemical Association President Jean Payne warned the plan would drive fertilizer production offshore. “(House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi says this bill is about jobs, jobs, jobs,” Payne told rally participants. “Well, for fertilizer, it’s about imports, imports, imports.” Illinois Energy Citizens partners collected more than 13,000 “signature cards” for delivery to Democrat Sens. Dick Durbin of Springfield and Roland Burris of Chicago. Skeptical in Springfield Wayne-White Counties Electric Cooperative President Daryl Donjon argued carbon capture and storage technologies encouraged by the House bill and deemed crucial to Midwest coal use would not be available until “at least 2020.”
Donjon cited estimates that carbon “sequestration” efforts would cost utilities roughly $100 per metric ton of carbon equivalent. He questioned how energy providers would recover costs in a House-proposed emissions trading market potentially “rife
with speculators.” Even if utilities could recover $99 per metric ton, sequestration costs would add 8 cents per kilowatthour to Illinois power bills, Donjon warned. Emissions control equipment would consume 25-30 percent of plant-generated
power, creating a “double whammy” for consumers, he said. Illinois Coal Association President Bob Murray, CEO of Murray Energy Corp., was headed to a meeting with Saline See Cap and trade, page 4
SHOW CHAT
Gov. Pat Quinn, right, chats with Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson, center, and IFB Director Terry Pope of Burnside at the Farm Progress Show, Decatur. Nelson accompanied the governor as he toured the site on opening day of the show. See page 3 for details of Quinn’s Farm Progress Show visit. (Photo by Ken Kashian)
Nelson, others meet with ag secretary
Leaders look for ways to help save pork industry Periodicals: Time Valued
BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Farm Bureau leaders, including Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson, met with Ag Secretary Tom Vilsack in Washington, D.C., Friday to discuss options that could help save pork producers from financial disaster. U.S. pork producers the past 22 months have lost an estimated $21.57 for every market hog sold. As a result, producers have drained about half of their equity, according to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). “It’s a situation where we’ve got a lot of hogs hitting the market, which is depressing prices,” Nelson, a pork producer from LaSalle County, said during a Friday interview with FarmWeek and the RFD Radio Network.
“A credit issue is facing pork producers coupled with a public relations nightmare” due to confusion created when the H1N1 flu in April was mislabeled “swine flu.” The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), IFB, NPPC, and the Illinois Pork Producers Association (IPPA) in response requested USDA increase purchases of pork for various federal food programs, remove the spending cap on the Section 32 (school lunch) food program, and work with officials from other countries to remove trade restrictions on pork. USDA last week responded to one of the requests when Vilsack approved a $30 million pork purchase for federal food programs. “We greatly appreciate Secretary Vilsack’s action of approving this major pork purchase, which will help support pork
FarmWeek on the web: FarmWeekNow.com
producers who are suffering from one of the greatest economic crises the pork industry has ever seen,” said Phil Borgic, IPPA president and a pork producer from Montgomery County. But the purchase likely is just a starting point to help solve the pork industry’s complex financial problems, according to Nelson. He was accompanied by AFBF President Bob Stallman, Iowa Farm Bureau President Craig Lang, and North Carolina Farm Bureau President Larry Wooten in the meeting with Vilsack. The Farm Bureau leaders also requested USDA restructure loans through the Farm Service Agency and consider making low-interest loans through a market See Leaders, page 2
Illinois Farm Bureau®on the web: www.ilfb.org
FarmWeek Page 2 Monday, September 7, 2009
Quick Takes QUINN NAMES UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS TRUSTEES — Gov. Pat Quinn Friday filled the remaining vacancies on the University of Illinois Board of Trustees, appointing five alumni. The board will meet Tuesday, and Quinn, who serves on the board as the governor, said he planned to attend. The five are: Edward McMillan, chief executive officer of McMillan LLC, Greenville; Karen Hasara, former Springfield mayor and state legislator, Springfield; Timothy Koritz, anesthesiologist, Roscoe; Pamela Strobel, retired Exelon executive vice president, Winnetka; and Carlos Tortolero, president National Museum of Mexican Art, Berwyn. They will join newly appointed trustees Christopher Kennedy, president of Chicago Merchandise Mart, and Lawrence Oliver II, a lawyer with Boeing Co., and trustees James Montgomery and Frances Carroll, who refused to resign. McMillan, a College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Sciences graduate, had resigned from the board shortly after the Illinois Admission Review Commission recommended the resignation of all trustees. He had been a trustee for only three months. NEW REPORT TO CLEAR AIR — A new University of California-Davis study concludes U.S. beef and dairy production is responsible for a much lower share of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than asserted in a 2006 United Nations report. The new report is to be published Oct. 1. Clearing the Air: Livestock’s Contribution to Climate Change draws on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data indicating agriculture is responsible for about 5.8 percent of nationwide GHG emissions. In California, home to 20 percent of the U.S. dairy herd, researchers found just 5.4 percent of GHGs were due to agriculture. Researchers discovered fermented silage is the greatest source of the GHG methane on dairy farms. Contrary to popular belief, storage lagoons for manure proved to be the smallest sources of GHGs on dairies, according to researchers. EPA is preparing to issue new rules under the Clean Air Act to regulate GHGs. Provisions as currently written likely would affect about 90 percent of the livestock industry, according to American Farm Bureau Federation. Most livestock producers with more than 25 dairy cows, 50 beef cows, or 200 hogs would be required to obtain EPA permits. TRANSPORTATION HUB BREAKS GROUND — State and Joliet leaders last week broke ground for a new transportation facility expected to bring 7,000 permanent jobs to Illinois, according to CenterPoint Properties, the facility operator. The new facility in Joliet is part of a state plan to spur business development along freight rail corridors. Newly signed state legislation creates an Intermodal Facilities Promotion Fund. Under the act, state income taxes attributed to jobs created at the facility will be put in the fund and used to reimburse CenterPoint for infrastructure improvements. The Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity will award an annual grant of up to $3 million from fiscal years 2010 through 2016 from the promotion fund.
(ISSN0197-6680) Vol. 37 No. 36 September 7, 2009 Dedicated to improving the profitability of farming, and a higher quality of life for Illinois farmers. FarmWeek is produced by the Illinois Farm Bureau. FarmWeek is published each week, except the Mondays following Thanksgiving and Christmas, by the Illinois Agricultural Association, 1701 Towanda Avenue, P.O. Box 2901, Bloomington, IL 61701. Illinois Agricultural Association assumes no responsibility for statements by advertisers or for products or services advertised in FarmWeek. FarmWeek is published by the Illinois Agricultural Association for farm operator members. $3 from the individual membership fee of each of those members go toward the production of FarmWeek.
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FARM INCOME
USDA forecasts a drop in farm income, ag exports BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
USDA last week projected farm income for 2009 will drop substantially while ag exports for fiscal year 2010 could experience a moderate decline. Farm income for the current year was estimated to plunge 38 percent compared to last year. The most recent farm income forecast, $54 billion, would be more than $9 billion below the 10-year average of $63.2 billion. “2009 looks to be a down-income year,” said Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois Extension farm management specialist. “What we’re seeing are all the high (input) costs and low commodity prices” compared to recent levels. USDA pointed to lower prices for crops and livestock as the main culprit in the reduced farm income projection. Crop receipts this year were projected to decline by $18 billion, although at $165 billion that still would be the second highest on record. Meanwhile, livestock receipts were projected to decline by $22.2 billion (down 15.7 percent) in 2009. “I think it has more to do with lower prices,” Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst, said of the low farm income projections. “The biggest thing is where are cash prices for
grain going to go,” he continued. “They’ve been better (in recent years) but as we go through 2009 and 2010, we could see some pressure on these markets that could lead to lower profitability.” Newsom shocked and probably depressed some farmers last week at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur when he projected crop prices could sink as low as $2 per bushel for corn and $6 per bushel for beans if production ends up at near-record levels. “With the slow maturity (of corn and beans), the first freeze date is everything,” he said. “Barring any problems, we’re looking at near-record production. It could lead to substantially lower markets.” That scenario at least would be good for such end-users as livestock producers, Newsom noted. On the flipside, production problems in coming months could lead to a rebound in prices to levels near $4 for corn and $11 to $11.75 for beans, Newsom said. One forecast that should encourage farmers is USDA’s estimate of farm expenses, which are expected to fall this year by $9.2 billion (3.2 percent). Expenses this year still would be the second highest on record topped only by last year’s record costs. Meanwhile, USDA forecast ag exports will drop from $97.5 billion in fiscal year 2009 to $97 billion in fiscal year 2010. Both estimates are down considerably from record sales in 2008 of $115.3 billion, but they still are well above the 2005 to 2007 average of $71.1 billion.
NRCS unveils retooled CSP Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) officials recently unveiled a revamped Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP). Through 2012, farmers may enroll a maximum 51.076 million acres nationwide in CSP. There has been no announcement on the number of eligible acres in Illinois. Through CSP, enrolled farmers address natural resource concerns in a comprehensive plan. Signup is open and offered on a continuous basis. New eligibility rules are: • Participants must be the legal farm operator of enrolled land for the life of the contract. • All farm operators must be documented in Farm Service Agency’s (FSA) farm records management system. Individuals not documented or with outdated or inaccurate records must be enrolled in the system or update their data or they are ineligible for CSP. • Applicants need to obtain a “Self-Screening Checklist” online or from their local NRCS office, answer all questions, and complete the checklist; and • Applicants need to be prepared with other information, such as maps and documentation, about the operation. Individuals who don’t have needed documents in order could impact or delay their 2009 eligibility. “Information must be documented in Farm Service Agency farm records management system,” said Ivan Dozier, NRCS assistant state conservationist for programs. This documentation ensures applicants’ eligibility information for adjusted gross income verification and confirms their compliance with highly erodible land and wetland conservation provisions, Dozier noted. To be eligible for CSP, each producer’s paperwork and conservation status must be in order; however, Dozier added that producers have time “to update your information and
check out the program.” To help with CSP, NRCS is developing a new electronic conservation measurement tool that will be available at local NRCS offices by mid-September. NRCS will enter data and information into the computerized tool, which will measure, calculate, and ultimately rate the performance and effect of conservation practices installed on the land. “This new tool will systematically and scientifically evaluate and rank CSP applications nationwide,” Dozier said. No definitive information has been released on payment levels for the new CSP; however, NRCS officials anticipate two possible scenarios. In one scenario, a producer would receive an annual payment for installing and adopting additional activities, and improving, maintaining, and managing existing activities. Compensation for onfarm research and demonstration activities or pilot tests would be made through the annual payment. In a second scenario, participants who receive an annual payment would also receive a supplemental payment for agreeing to adopt a new resource-conserving crop rotation. To learn more, visit your local NRCS office or go online to {http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/new_csp/}.
Leaders Continued from page 1 loss assistance program to help pork producers “weather the storm,” Nelson noted. “This was the first step,” Nelson said. “Some of these issues we put on the table I think (Secretary Vilsack) will work on in very short order.” Vilsack reportedly plans to visit China this fall to discuss reopening that market after China banned imports of U.S. pork when H1N1 first made national headlines in April.
FarmWeek Page 3 Monday, September 7, 2009
STATE
Economy, renewable energy, budget top governor’s list Endorses renewable energy goals for 2025 BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek
Gov. Pat Quinn stumped for renewable energy, highlighting its importance to the state’s economy while he shook hands and posed for photos with Farm Progress Show visitors last week. “When it comes to growing the economy, it starts with agriculture,” the governor said. “We’re the center of agriculture right here in Illinois.” Quinn, accompanied by Illinois Farm Bureau President Philip Nelson, checked out farm equipment as he strolled across the Decatur farm show site. Illinoisans are telling the governor they’re worried about the economy, according to Quinn. “We have to recover. Illinois’ unemployment rate is too high. My No. 1 job ... is increasing jobs.” And the renewable energy industry is creating more jobs, Quinn said. He described a recent visit to a wind turbine gear plant that has 300 employees in Elgin. Economic growth and energy independence were two factors the governor discussed after
he signed a joint resolution at the farm show. The resolution, which was passed by the General Assembly in the spring session, sets a goal for the U.S. to obtain 25 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2025. Quinn also endorsed the 25x’25 Vision that encourages use of more renewable energy in Illinois. “We don’t want to be dependent upon a foreign potentate for our energy supply,” Quinn told the gathered crowd. The governor added Illinois should work to obtain 25 percent of its energy from renewable sources, such as biofuels, wind, solar, and hydro power, by 2025. Quinn also discussed state funding problems and budget cuts. The governor said it was a difficult decision to cut research funding for the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research (C-FAR). “I don’t think that reduction will last forever,” Quinn said. “I’ve cut my own pay. I’m taking 12 furlough days. It’s hard to try to make decisions on some of those things, but you’ve got to make decisions.” C-FAR funding was eliminated in final budget reductions. However, at least one state lawmaker, Sen. Michael Frerichs (D-Champaign) said he will attempt to obtain funds for C-FAR in the veto session.
GETTING READY
Illinois Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno (R-Lemont) discusses the importance of Illinois agriculture to the state’s economy. Radogno, a long-time participant in Illinois Farm Bureau’s Adopt-a-Legislator program, joined fellow state lawmakers for an ag technology-education tour, co-hosted by IFB, at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur last week. (Photo by Kay Shipman)
At Farm Progess Show
State lawmakers brush up on agriculture technology Illinois Senate Minority Leader Christine Radogno agreed her Chicago suburban constituents might wonder why she toured the Farm Progress Show, but she had a clear mission. “Those of us (in the General Assembly) who vote on agriculture needs to be educated,” the Lemont RepubliFarmWeekNow.com View our Farm Progress Show photo gallery at FarmWeekNow.com.
Larry Scheller of Livingston in Madison County practices reining in his quarter horse Jazzy San Pep in preparation for competition at the DuQuoin State Fair. The fair, which featured harness racing and livestock judging for everything from cattle to mini-mules, concluded Monday (Sept. 7) after a 10-day run. (Photo by Ken Kashian)
can told media last week. Radogno joined about a dozen fellow Illinois lawmakers and four Indiana legislators for a crash course on the latest in production agriculture technology and research at an activity co-hosted by Illinois Farm Bureau. “I come from a part of the state where people don’t give a lot of thought as to where their food comes from,” Radogno said. “In fact, when they do think about it, it’s probably along of the lines of, ‘Did those marshmallows come from the candy aisle or the baking aisle?’ “That’s too bad because a lot of people live in that portion of our state, and agri-
culture is an important part of our economy,” she concluded. The Farm Progress Show has particular significance to Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Frerichs (D-Champaign). The first Farm Progress Show, which was in 1953 at Armstrong, was located near his grandfather’s Illinois farm, Frerichs noted. Agricultural research and innovations topped Frerichs’ list for Farm Progress Show stops. Illinois needs to continue its agricultural research, he said. The senator said he will work with other senators and representatives to restore funding for the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research (C-FAR) in the fall veto session. Rep. David Reis (R-Willow Hill) encouraged farmers and others to continue educating non-farmers about farming and to clear up misconceptions. Reis, a farmer, pointed out he served on a state puppy mill task force and that activists are working hard to discredit agriculture. “We need this show,” Reis concluded. — Kay Shipman
FarmWeek Page 4 Monday, September 7, 2009
CLIMATE
A climate of concern: Comments on cap and trade During last week’s Energy Citizens rally, Illinoisans from several walks of life told FarmWeek how they and their individual sectors would be affected by House cap-and-trade legislation and the high energy costs it would generate. AGRICULTURE “The big gest issue is that the United States is going alone on all of this — nobody else is doing anything about it. The two big gest polluters — India and China — have basically told us to kiss off. Regardless of what we do, it will have ver y little effect on climate. All it’s doing is hurting the United States and
raising our costs for gasoline, fertilizer, and other products. It’ll drive a lot of employment overseas.” Duane Strunk, Champaign Farm manager, producer SMALL BUSINESS “My ver y future is on a pivot pin.” Ray Light, Springfield Independent landscaper HOUSING AND JOBS “This is going to be it for our industr y. One of the things we hear from legislators ever y year is that they want us to build affordable housing. It’s impossible to build affordable hous-
ing when the cost of ever ything you buy goes up ... We have to create a climate that allows industr y to create jobs, and this is the opposite of that.” Sam McCann McCann Construction General contractor CONSUMER COSTS “Eighty percent of the nation’s freight travels by truck at some point. If you’ve increased the cost it takes to get product from Point A to Point B, it’s going to trickle down. It’s going to take more to build roads; it’s going to cost more to get food to grocery store shelves; it’s going to take
more to get clothes to the clothing store.” Matt Hart Midwest Truckers Association GOVERNMENT AND COMMUNITY “You cannot continuously increase costs and still provide the quality of life and respond to the needs of the people. Some of these small rural ambulance districts have a problem recruiting help. With these kinds of costs, what are they going to do? How do you tell somebody when they’re in need that we can’t come because we don’t have any money in the budget to respond.” Gib Cady Henry County Sheriff
Cap and trade Continued from page 1 County miners after the rally. “I’m not looking forward to this meeting because their lives are going to be destroyed by (the House plan) — every one of them,” Murray said. Discontentment in Decatur Rep. Mark Kirk, a Highland Park Republican, voted for the
House plan because he believed it would benefit his north suburban Chicago district. But he said he since has “expanded my view of the economy,” and argues “when you look at the economic interests of the whole state, you have to be against the bill.” “I’ve spent a day in a coal mine at (Southern Illinois’) Prairie
USDA energy dollars help reduce footprint BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
USDA’s Rural Development chief last week hailed new energy funding aimed at helping agriculture improve its bottomline while lightening its carbon footprint. USDA is providing more than $13 million in new loans and grants for 233 renewable energy/energy efficiency projects in 38 states under the Rural Energy for America Program (REAP). USDA Under Secretary for Rural Development Dallas Tonsager announced nearly $1.157 million in funding for 22 Illinois projects during last week’s Farm Progress Show. For example, Charleston’s Terrydale Farms Inc. will receive a $20,000 grant to replace a 25-year-old grain dryer that uses laborintensive processes that often results in under- or over-dried grain. The replacement dryer will use technology that automatically adjusts burner temperature to produce evenly dried grain in a shorter period, reduce energy consumption by nearly 37 percent annually, and lower Terrydale Farms’ annual energy bill by more than $8,500. In addition, Jo-Carroll Energy Inc.’s planned $100,000 grant will be used to perform energy audits for producers and rural small businesses within the utility’s Northern Illinois territory. Beyond helping producers and businesses control high energy/input prices, REAP and USDA are focusing more on reducing agriculture’s carbon footprint. “It will be a major part of our efforts over the term of President Obama to try and accomplish as much carbon reduction as we can,” Tonsager told FarmWeek. “We believe it’s a real economic opportunity for producers to be part of that carbon reduction process. “We have an ethanol industry and a biodiesel industry that are struggling a bit right now. We’ve made some changes to the way we deliver our loan programs — we specifically want to help the energy industry as well as almost any other business in rural America by helping put working capital into operations so the lenders involved with them can see a clear path to economic success.” Tonsager also committed USDA’s assistance in developing biomass and cellulosic biofuels crops. He suggested the department could support installation of gasoline “blender pumps” and other fuel distribution technologies that would accommodate “higher mixes of ethanol and biodiesel.”
State Energy Campus (and) with farmers today at the Wood River (petroleum) refinery,” he told FarmWeek at the Farm Progress Show. “It’s legislation that I think is dying in the Senate, with only 45 votes and sinking. “In the future, what I’d like to do is back an energy policy like what I’ve voted for in the past. I am pro-nuclear power — 50 new nuclear power plants. I am pro-Yucca Mountain, to store (nuclear wastes). “I am pro-the (proposed) trans-Canada pipeline, to bring lower-cost natural gas into the Midwest. And I am for drilling offshore to expand our sources of energy right here at home.” Also visiting Decatur was Renewable Fuels Association (RFA) President Bob Dineen,
who said he believes “We’re a long way from having a completed package out of the Senate.” RFA is focused on ensuring any Senate bill include House Ag Committee provisions that would prevent the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from considering global indirect land use effects in analyzing the carbon footprint and thus federal support of prospective new biofuels. As concerns about cap-andtrade science, implementation, and economics are addressed, Dineen predicts “we may see a much different package emerge than what came from the House.” Uncertainty in St. Louis Protestors outside a St. Louis cap-and-trade roundtable convened by Shimkus and Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.) hailed the bill’s
potential to create “green jobs.” Small business interests inside painted a quite different picture. Shimkus warned “cap and trade is going to cost everyone something”: Bakery owner Randy McArthur was concerned how rising energy costs would impact his 80-85 employees. Illinois Farm Bureau board member J.C. Pool, who attended the meeting, noted the ripple effect that mere discussion of the House plan has had on one area construction company. “A lot of passionate people see we’re going down the wrong path: We’re going to kill a lot of jobs in an economy where we don’t need any jobs done away with,” Pool said. “And they’re tired of big government telling us what to do.”
Illinois Farm Bureau Vice President Rich Guebert Jr. leads off last Tuesday’s Energy Citizens’ cap-and-trade rally in Springfield. Guebert was one of a panel of industry spokesmen who decried House climate proposals. “Whether you’re in construction, whether you’re in mining, in trucking, in a rural electrical cooperative, you’re going to be affected,” he said. “We need to tell the Senate loud and clear — all the citizens of Illinois and across this great nation — that we cannot afford to pay any more for energy. We need to keep jobs in the United States, and we need to keep promoting our industry.” (Photo by Martin Ross)
FarmWeek Page 5 Monday, September 7, 2009
PRODUCTION
Drop in crop prices could trigger insurance payments BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Farmers unsure if they’ll collect a crop insurance payment this fall should keep their eyes on the price. Crop prices could sink low enough this fall to trigger crop insurance claims, according to John Fahl, crop insurance consultant with Country Financial. “We could have a significant number of claims not because of yields but because of price,” Fahl told FarmWeek last week at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. Cash prices for fall at one
point last week dropped below $3 per bushel for corn and $9.50 for soybeans. “A lot of farmers may think that if they have 170- to 180bushel corn (this fall) then they won’t have a claim,” Fahl said. “But they’ve got to remember that with the price drop, it could trigger claims” for revenue-based products. Fahl urged farmers to remain in close contact with their crop insurance agents. All crop specialists and agents for Country Financial are trained to use computer software to help producers determine if they have a claim.
Survey shows acreage shift possible in 2010 Farmers may opt to plant more corn and fewer soybeans next year, according to a recent survey. Farm Futures recently surveyed 741 U.S. crop producers about planting intentions for 2010. Results of the survey were released last week at the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. “We’ve gone through a couple volatile years” in which acreage numbers were quite variable from season to season, Arlan Suderman, Farm Futures market analyst, told FarmWeek. “The survey showed farmers kind of getting back in their rotation.” Soybean plantings, which spiked this year to a record-high 77.7 million acres, were estimated to decline next year to 75 million acres. Corn plantings, on the other hand, were projected to increase next year by about 500,000 acres to a total of 87.5 million acres. “This is an early snapshot of farmers’ sentiments,” Suderman said. “Economic factors the next six months really will affect what gets planted.” Corn production may look more attractive next year as fertilizer prices are projected to decline compared to this season. Suderman also believes soybean prices could come under pressure — he projected a production increase in South America. However, the corn market could face pressure as well if the current crop avoids major frost damage this fall and bountiful yields boost ending stocks. “We could see things change this winter when farmers pencil out input costs against returns,” Suderman said. Meanwhile, wheat production in the U.S. could “keep a lid on the wheat market,” according to Suderman. Farmers who responded to the survey indicated wheat plantings for next year could increase by 2 percent to 61.1 million acres. The increase in wheat plantings is anticipated to occur in the Plains where hard red winter wheat acres are projected to expand. Plantings of soft red winter wheat, which is grown in Illinois, are projected to decline in the upcoming season. — Daniel Grant
Producers who want to check the status of their policy simply need to provide their agent/specialist with the actual
actual outcome,” Fahl said. “So farmers need to watch the markets.” Fahl believes yields in Illi-
‘It’s still too early to tell the actual outcome. So farmers need to watch the markets.’ — John Fahl Country Financial crop insurance consultant
production history from their farm to determine if they may have a claim. “It’s still too early to tell the
nois generally will be down from last year although production still could be large if the crops avoid an early frost.
“The crops look good,” Fahl said. “If we get heat, I think they’ll be OK.” The condition of the corn crop in Illinois last week was rated 62 percent good to excellent, 27 percent fair, and 11 percent poor to very poor. The condition of the state’s soybean crop last week was rated 60 percent good to excellent, 30 percent fair, and 10 percent poor to very poor, the National Agricultural Statistics Service Illinois field office reported. Many farmers at the Farm Progress Show last week indicated harvest likely won’t kick into full gear until October.
STATE’S LARGEST PLANTER TOUR ATTRACTION
One stop a group of French farmers and agribusiness professionals made last week was the Mike and Tammy Rosenwinkel farm in Waterman where they viewed an innovative 48-row John Deere planter (reputed to be the largest one in the state) the Rosenwinkels used to plant their crops this year. Only 24 rows of the planter are shown here. The group also visited the Bob Stewart farm in Yorkville during the tour coordinated by the Kendall County Farm Bureau. After visiting Kendall County, the group took in the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. (Photo by Jim Fraley)
Manure management field day to show alternative technology Illinois State University will host a livestock manure management field day Tuesday, Sept. 22, at the university research farm near Lexington. Registration will begin at 8:30 a.m. The morning program will offer mini-seminars on optimizing the fertilizer value of manure, new manure resources on the Internet, an update of Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) regulations, innovative economical technologies to control liquid manure odor, manure processing, and low- and no-odor methods for land applying processed liquid manure. Participants will have an opportunity to inspect two manure solid-liquid separation systems — one
for controlling pit odor and another for underground irrigation of processed liquid manure. They also may view the ISU compost facility used to compost livestock manure. ISU researchers have studied the benefits and drawbacks of composting livestock manure from beef, sheep and swine herds with landscape waste. The compost is used as fertilizer for corn and soybean production. The ISU farm includes a 220-sow farrow-tofinish operation for which all of the liquid manure is separated into solid and liquid components. Each year, more than 2 million gallons of liquid manure is separated. The liquid por-
tion is applied as nitrogen fertilizer through irrigation. Field day attendees will be able to tour 40-acre fields of soybeans fertilized with separated effluent, composted biosolids, unprocessed swine slurry, and inorganic fertilizer. Advanced registration is not required, and there is no charge. A meal will be provided. Funding for the activity is being provided by ISU’s ag department, the Illinois Council on Food and Agricultural Research, the University of Illinois Extension, and NRCS. For more information, call the ISU department of agriculture at 309-438-5654 or 309-438-3881.
FarmWeek Page 6 Monday, September 7, 2009
CROPWATCHERS Bernie Walsh, Durand, Winnebago County: No rain last week, but still on the cool side here in Northern Illinois. We had 39 degrees last Monday (Aug. 31) morning, but no frost, thank goodness. The early-planted corn is denting, but very little corn has reached black layer. The soybeans seem to get hit with a different problem each week. It has been Japanese beetles, white mold, aphids, and last week it was sudden death syndrome and brown stem rot. In spite of all these problems, we could still have aboveaverage yields. Time will tell. Pete Tekampe, Grayslake, Lake County: Another cool, wet week in Lake County. Got more than 4 inches of rain during the weekend (Aug. 29-30). The hottest it’s been this week is 77 degrees with the nights getting down to the low 40s. Not much growing in that kind of weather. Both corn and beans look good, but are three to four weeks behind. Hopefully, we’ll have a late frost, if not, it will be a tough year in Lake County. Hard to believe that summer is over. Leroy
Getz,
Savanna,
Carroll County: Sudden September sunshine alert. No rain for the week. The longest dry period all season. Much hay was made. Cool mornings, as low as 39 degrees on Aug. 31, have slowed beans down. Corn is maturing, but needs all the help it can get. Market prices are good for the feed buyers, but bad for the sellers. August rain totaled 8.3 inches. That gives us 33.3 inches since April 1.
Larry Hummel, Dixon, Lee County: This year’s wet weather is separating the men from boys when it comes to resistance from white mold in different varieties. Even scouting at 55 mph, you can see a huge difference in varieties as you drive by test plots. Aphid populations have held about steady the past two weeks. There is no stress from lack of moisture as the end of the growing season is drawing near. It is starting to look like aphids will be a non-issue this year. Early-planted corn has dented and looking good, but the corn planted at the end of May is aborting kernels at the ear tips and struggling to mature with all the cool weather. Joe Zumwalt, Warsaw, Hancock County: Yet another week of cool temperatures across the state. The lack of heat units continues to push back harvest. At one time, I thought harvest would be in full swing by Sept. 20, but now I am thinking that not many machines will be running until October. Most are mowing, baling hay, working livestock, or getting ready to chop silage. Corn and soybean yield predictions are quite variable, but there is some good potential. I wouldn’t say that it will be record breaking like many marketers are predicting. In some areas it looks like we won’t have to worry about the frost on the soybeans because the aphids and sudden death syndrome will have them killed back anyway. Even a normal frost date means lighter test weights and a lot of LP use this fall. I hope most of you were able to take advantage of the beautiful weather and visit the Farm Progress Show. Ron Moore, Roseville, Warren County: We did not receive any rain last week. I think that is the first week all summer that we didn’t have any rain. The grass is starting to get short now. We are starting to move cattle home from pastures. Some cornfields are starting to turn the shucks brown. The milk line is now about two-thirds the way down on some varieties. We should be harvesting corn silage in about a week or so. The beans are still suffering from sudden death syndrome and white mold. It is too soon to tell how much yield we will lose because of those two diseases. The beans are not yet turning color. This might be a year we don’t harvest beans until October.
Ken Reinhardt, Seaton, Mercer County: No rain for the week. Only the second one this season? The growing degree days since May 1 are 2,157, the 11-year average is 2,385. That is close to two weeks behind. I have heard this crop called the Smokey and the Bandit crop: “It has a long way to go and a short time to get there.” Kind of hard to get moving on harvest preparations when crops are so green. Jacob Streitmatter, Princeville, Peoria County: I am sure this was the only week that I have not dumped any rain out of my rain gauge since the previous week. Corn and soybeans have a long way to go. There have been a lot of spray planes in the air with soybeans getting the attention. White mold, sudden death, etc. are starting to show up in certain fields. Not been much progress in the corn crop with very few kernels denting. Tim Green, Wyoming, Stark County: Another very pleasant week. Lows in the 50s and highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Corn is not coming along very fast. Still green and looks like it’s July 1. Grass is still growing. Still hear a few planes spraying, not sure what, but I’m assuming beans. I think it is getting to be a little late, but you never know. Got to try something once. Mark Kerber, Chatsworth, Livingston County: What a cool week. Great for working and sleeping. Not so great for crop maturation. Crops look pretty good if you can’t see the spring-time-pond damage. Aphids are getting thicker, and some are spraying for them in soybeans. Some early varieties of soybeans are just starting to turn. Mowing roads and waterways are keeping many busy as we prepare for harvest. Plot and seed demonstration meetings are upon us. Everyone wants to know seed prices. Fall corn is under $3, fall soybeans are $9.14. Ron Haase, Gilman, Iroquois County: The major activity for us last week was meeting with groups from Brazil who came to the Farm Progress Show. We met with 140 farmers and agriculturalists from all over Brazil. It was fun to explain about agriculture here. The rain on Aug. 28 ranged from 1.2 to 2.2 inches. Most of the area cornfields are in the dent stage (R5), while some are still in the dough stage (R4). The milk line is about 35 percent of the way down the kernel on the most mature corn. Most soybean fields are in the full seed growth stage (R6). Some fields are beginning to turn yellow. The local closing prices for Sept. 3: nearby corn, $2.98; new-crop corn, $2.90; nearby soybeans, $10.90; new-crop soybeans, $9.25. Brian Schaumburg, Chenoa, McLean County: Crop maturity grinds slowly toward maturity. Most corn is in the late dough to early-dent stage. White mold is a concern, but soybeans are starting to turn. Harvest will start around Sept. 20. Corn, $3.06; fall, $2.96; soybeans, $10.41; fall, $9.16; wheat, $3.61. Steve Ayers, Champaign, Champaign County: What a beautiful weather week for crop development, Rantoul’s Half Century of Progress Show, and Decatur’s Farm Progress Show. OK, we could use more heat, but we are looking at some mid-80s temperatures the next couple weeks. I saw my first field of beans just starting to yellow and am hearing scattered reports of white mold. Seeing some downed corn from wind, some cornfields turning yellow, and limited earworm damage. I have tomato plants that haven’t produced a ripe tomato yet and it’s September. What a year!
Wilfred Dittmer, Quincy, Adams County: Another cool Friday morning in our neck of the woods, as it was about every day last week. Rainfall since my last report was 0.65 of an inch. Our total for August is 11.65 inches. Crops are still trying their best to reach maturity, despite the belowaverage temperatures of the last couple months. More warm days are needed. The hay guys have had some good days finally to get some good hay put away. Needless to say, lawns are still very green compared to some years when they are almost all brown by now and the mowers are parked. Harry Schirding, Petersburg, Menard County: Rainfall last week, 0.09 of an inch. Total for September, zero. Normal for September, 3.3 inches. Although still several weeks away from harvest, some cornfields are taking on that end-of-season look. Diseases are becoming more evident on the leaves above the ear. Bleaching on the husks is usually the first sign of diplodia ear rot. If the levels of fungi continue to increase, producers should monitor closely for the increasing incidence of stalk rots. Sudden death syndrome is visible in more soybean fields with each passing week. Aphid populations are near threshold levels and producers need to consider treatment. Corn nearby, $3.03, down 13 cents; soybeans nearby, $10.45, down $1.01; January corn, $2.97, down 14 cents; January soybeans, $9.52, down 48 cents. Tom Ritter, Blue Mound, Macon County: It was a great week for any activity with the cooler temperatures and sunshine. It was a great Farm Progress Show with a great crowd. Corn did not accomplish a lot of maturing with the cooler temperatures. It is almost a month behind in maturity. Early-planted corn in April, which was only 5 or 10 percent in this area, is drying down and ears are starting to drop a little. The majority of the crop will not be harvested for another four weeks and then probably at higher-thandesired moistures. Soybeans also are slow to mature, due to most of them being planted during June. They are a long way off. It will definitely be October before the majority of the beans start to turn. Overall, farmers have been busy mowing roads, preparing storage, and preparing equipment. Todd Easton, Charleston, Coles County: Last week continued to be cooler than many of us were hoping and has kept corn development slow. According to the University of Illinois, last week only yielded 100 growing degree days, bringing us to about 2,200 for lateMay-planted corn. The small amount of late-April-planted corn is very close to reaching physiological maturity, which puts it at 35 to 40 percent moisture, while the majority of our corn is just entering the R5 dent stage. Soybeans appreciated the 1 inch of rain we received last week and still have a ways to go given they are at the R5 to R6 stage. As we start to gear up for the upcoming harvest season, please keep safety at the top of your priorities. I just relearned this the hard way when a simple accident at our elevator left me with my first broken leg. Think safety! Doug Uphoff, Shelbyville, Shelby County: Enjoyed a day at the Farm Progress Show last week. Crops here are two to four weeks from being harvested. Corn at the show was from 32 to 44 percent moisture. Soybean aphids are on the rise, but no one has sprayed yet. Bean basis took a big hit last week after being $2.20 over. It is now $1.27 over. Cash beans, $10.42; fall beans, $9.30; cash corn, $3.01; fall corn, $2.84; diesel fuel at the farm, $2.03. David Schaal, St. Peter, Fayette County: Another week here without any precipitation. Lawn mowers are getting a break. We need a quick rain to help our soybeans put beans in the pods. Soybean aphids hit the area hard last week. There was a lot of spraying going on. Some fields were over four times the threshold. Hoping for rain.
FarmWeek Page 7 Monday, September 7, 2009
CROPWATCHERS Ted Kuebrich, Jerseyville, Jersey County: It was a cool, dry week in Jersey County with temperatures in the 40s most mornings. Leaves on the early-planted corn are almost all dried and brown. Moisture in the corn planted the first couple of weeks of April is running about 25 percent. Some ears have dropped down, and you can find mold on the ends of the ear. Some of the bean leaves are starting to turn brown at the top of the plant. Some say it is frogeye leaf spot. Cash corn, $3.09; new corn, $2.97; January 2010 corn, $3.09; June 2010 corn, $3.30; cash beans, $9.72; new beans, $9.42; January 2010 beans, $9.55. Dan Meinhart, Montrose, Jasper County: Friday, Aug. 28, some areas received about 1 inch of rain, while others received 0.5 of an inch or less. In the drier area, that was the only rain received in August. Temperatures have been running in the upper 40s and lower 50s at night, and the highs have been in the 70s during the day. Aphids have moved into the area. The sprayers are running hot and heavy applying insecticides, and some are applying fungicides at the same time. A warming trend is predicted this week with no rain in the forecast.
Rick Corners, Centralia, Jefferson County: Another week with no rain, and as late as everything is, we sure could use some. They were predicting it over the weekend, but the percentages were low. I went to the Farm Progress Show on Wednesday, and crops there seemed to be just as late as ours. Dean Shields, Murphysboro, Jackson County: We had little or no rain last week. Weather has been abnormally cool. It’s nice and pleasant to work in, but just not the type of weather we are used to. The unusual thing is that the Mississippi River has been bouncing up and down, keeping our locks closed. So, we are concerned here in the river-bottom area about getting heavy rain that would cause flooding now that the crop is pretty well along. The rest of the county is experiencing aphids, and some farmers are spraying for them. That’s unusual for Jackson County. We are seeing some sudden death syndrome showing up now, too. We are getting a brown look to the corn in a few places as it is maturing. A few beans, some of the very, very early ones, are just barely starting to turn. We are getting ready for harvest, and everybody is looking forward to it. There’s concern about diseases in the beans and corn right now because of this weather. Hope the corn quality is as good as we think it will be. We will see. Have a good harvest.
Kevin Raber, Browns, Wabash County: Another month has slipped past. It seems like the summer has gone quickly. There was no rainfall last week. It is becoming very dry. There are yards that didn’t need mowing — that is a first for this summer. I talked to several farmers who are going to start harvesting this week. It will be interesting to see how the yield estimates compare to the real yields. Ken Taake, Ullin, Pulaski County: It’s been another dry week here in deep Southern Illinois. I did hear of one farmer in the fields shelling corn. Moisture I heard was about 18 percent. We are at least a week away from starting any harvest. Young Farmers did their crop tour on Monday, Aug. 31. In Pulaski County, they had yields running from 106 to 183 with an average of 147. In 2008, their average results were 173. In Alexander County, they had yield ranges from 118 to 201 with an average of 150. In 2008, their average for Alexander County was 162. I guess that will give us an idea on yields until we get in the field and really see how things turn out.
Reports received Friday morning.
Cool, wet summer a prelude to frigid, snowy winter? BY DANIEL GRANT Far mWeek
Final weather statistics for the months of June through August confirm the obvious — this definitely was a cool, wet summer in Illinois. The average temperature for the three-month stretch was 71.4 degrees, 2.4 degrees below normal, and the average precipitation statewide during that time totaled 15.2 inches, 3.6 inches above normal. “This was the 11th coolest and eighth wettest summer since statewide records began in 1895,” said
Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey (ISWS). Few people alive today remember the coolest summer on record in Illinois. That was in 1915 when the temperature averaged just 69.3 degrees. The wettest summer on record occurred during the historic flood of 1993 when precipitation from June through August averaged 18.3 inches. The mild summer lowered energy demand as cooling degree days were 26 percent below normal, according to ISWS. However, the wet spring
BY KEVIN BLACK
Compaction, shallow root systems, leaf diseases, wet weather, nutrient leaching, storm injury, and other challenges to the corn crop raise the question of what cornstalk quality will be like this fall. Sad to say, it doesn’t look good for many fields. The stalk rots, as a group, are largely opportunists and are diseases of old age in the corn plant. They take advantage of existing weaknesses to colonize the cornstalk. Unfortunately, there are plenty of weaknesses to exploit this year. Another generalization is that many stalk rots get their start as root rots and capitalize on compaction, root injury, insect feeding, or nematode feeding. With the shorter days and cool weather we’re now experiencing, we
delayed planting and the cool summer temperatures slowed crop development. Just 26 percent of the corn crop in the state was in the dent stage last week compared to the average of 73 percent, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Ser vice Illinois field office. “We were in a similar situation last year,” Angel said. “The slow-developing crops benefited from unseasonably warm temperatures in late September and early October as well as a later-than-normal frost. “For now, National
can expect stalk pathogens to gain additional advantage. This fall, it will be prudent to prioritize harvest for fields that are at greatest risk from loss of stalk quality. Plan to harvest these fields early and dry the grain, if necessary. Fields that were treated with foliar fungicides may have a bonus of better stalk quality, because foliar diseases often predispose the plant to stalk rots. Also, watch for top dieback and anthracnose stalk rot this fall. Early anthracnose infection levels were high in many fields, so inoculum levels could be high. Kevin Black is insect and plant disease technical manager for GROWMARK. His e-mail address is kblack@growmark.com.
Weather Service forecasts suggest September temperatures and precipitation should be near normal,” said the climatologist. A “nor mal” season means the first frost may not arrive in Illinois until somewhere around Oct. 1 in the north to as late as Nov. 1 in deep Southern Illinois. After that Illinoisans may want to break out their parkas and snow shovels. The Farmers’ Almanac last week predicted the upcoming winter will be frigid with lots of snow from the Rocky Mountains in the
west to the Appalachians in the east. The Farmers’ Almanac, which is separate from the Old Farmers’ Almanac, issues annual forecasts based on a formula that considers sunspots, planetary positions, and the effects of the moon. The winter forecast apparently did not account for the El Nino system in the Pacific Ocean. The National Weather Ser vice recently forecast war merthan-nor mal temperatures across much of the country this winter due in part to El Nino activity.
FarmWeek Page 8 Monday, September 7, 2009
FARM PROGRESS
Steele, Hutjens, Gould, Miller receive ’09 agribusiness awards Past Illinois Farm Bureau President Harold Steele, University of Illinois Extension dairy specialist Mike Hutjens, former USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) Administrator Eldon Gould, and Illinois Biotechnology Industry Harold Steele Organization (iBIO) President David Miller are among this year’s recipients of Abraham Lincoln National Agribusiness Awards. The awards, presented at the Farm Progress Show last week, are sponsored by the City of Decatur, Richland Community College, Farm Progress Publications, the Decatur Convention and Visitors Bureau, and Progress City USA. Steele, cited as a leader on ag financial policy issues, received the Abraham Lincoln National Agriculturalist Award. IFB nominated Steele for the honor. He was elected as IFB’s president in 1970 and served for 13 years. In the early 1980s, President Reagan appointed Steele to chair the National Commission of Agricultural Finance. President George H. Bush later named him chairman of the
Farm Credit Administration board. Steele also was IFB’s Outstanding Young Farmer in 1956 and a Prairie Farmer Master Farmer in 1970. He has received Distinguished Service Awards from the U of I and the American Farm Bureau Federation, as well as from IFB. Mike Hutjens, recipient of the 2009 Abraham Lincoln National Agricultural Award for Education, was hired by U of I in 1979, where he currently is a professor of animal science. He has spoken at dairy conferences in 46 Mike Hutjens states and 22 foreign countries, and his online dairy production management graduate courses have served some 350 students. Hutjens was 2008 World Dairy Expo Industry Person of the Year, received the 2009 American Dairy Science Association Honor Award, and was elected American Dairy Science Association president. Eldon Gould, Abraham Lincoln National Award for Governmental Service, is a Kane County farmer who manages 1,500 acres of corn and soy-
beans and a 700-sow farrowing operation. He has served on the IFB board, the Illinois Corn Marketing Board, the U.S. Meat Export Eldon Gould Federation, and the U.S. Grains Council, where he served as chairman. In 2005, President George W. Bush appointed Gould as RMA administrator and Federal Crop Insurance Corp. chairman. Gould is a recipient of the Prairie Farmer Master Farmer Award, the Superior Pork Producer Award from the Illinois Pork Producers Council, the World of Corn award from the Illinois Corn Growers Association, and IFB’s Distinguished Service Award. David Miller, 2009 Abraham Lincoln National Technology Award recipient, has worked with various Silicon Valley, Wisconsin, and Chicago technology companies and was responsible for leading development of the University of Wisconsin Research Park in Madison. Miller has played an integral role in the David Miller Vision for Illinois Agriculture. Miller developed the Ag-Bio Leadership Summit, which gathered five dozen executives from Illinois companies to set objectives for the goal of making Illinois a national leader in biotechnology.
Bureaucratic mindset challenge in scaling of ethanol blend wall? BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
National Renewable Fuels Association President Bob Dineen is confident the ethanol industry can “move beyond 10 percent” within six months, if federal regulators can move past a bureaucratic mindset. At last week’s Farm Progress Show, Dineen was unsure whether the U.S. EnvironmenFarmWeekNow.com tal Protection Agency (EPA) would take “the bigger step” Listen to Bob Dineen’s comof hiking the current 10 per- ments about breaking the cent standard gasoline ethanol e t h a n o l b l e n d w a l l a t FarmWeekNow.com. blend level (E10) to 15 percent — an industry target for accelerating ethanol use. “EPA staff is reluctant to do anything beyond the status quo — they’re reluctant to do an interim step between 10 and 15 percent,” he maintained. “Others in the administration understand a very positive signal could be sent here, that there are some legitimate reasons why taking an interim step is legally defensible and scientifically sound. “It’s a question of making sure the bureaucrats who’ve been at the agency for a long time and have their positions established don’t rule the day, so people with a broader perspective and a more open mind may take a fresh look.” Citing rising oil prices and an anticipated bumper corn crop, the biofuels advocate argued “the economics of the ethanol industry are returning” despite continued capital challenges for startups and expanding operations. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute economist Pat Westhoff cites potential over the next decade to “expand greatly” E10 demand in nationwide markets where “clean air” mandates have not driven past use. But without use of “intermediate” blends such as E12 or E15 to absorb ethanol production, “you’ll run into the infamous blend wall” where supplies far exceed demand. “Even if we have almost every single gallon of fuel in this country blended at 10 percent rates, sometime around 2012 or 2015 at the latest, we’re going to have to find some other way of using ethanol,” Westhoff said. On the supply side, he suggests a 20- to 30-cent-per-gallon return likely will be necessary “before anybody’s going to think about building a (new) plant.” Current average ethanol margins are below that point, and Westhoff foresees addition of only a few more plants — enough to meet the 15-billion-gallon-per-year 2015 target for corn ethanol use under the federal renewable fuels standard.
Caden Deerwester “test drives” a vintage Case tractor while his grandpa, Mark Nunnery of Clinton, looks on in the background last week during the Farm Progress Show in Decatur. The show attracted a large turnout of farmers as pleasant weather and a lack of harvest activity helped draw a steady stream of visitors to the three-day event. (Photo by Daniel Grant)
FarmWeek Page 9 Monday, September 7, 2009
CONFERENCES National Small Farm Conference
Solar power fueling alternative farming options
BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek
The sun helps pump water for Dave Bishop’s calves and also powers the electric fences that contain them on PrairiErth Farms near Atlanta in Logan County. “Alternative agriculture is trying to figure out ways to be less vulnerable and less dependent on high energy and oil prices,” Bishop said. Bishop’s farm will be among several Central Illinois tour stops for participants of the National Small Farm Conference Sept. 15-17 in Springfield. Bishop, also the resource conservationist with the McLean County Soil and Water Conservation District, turned to solar power to provide electricity needs for his summer pasture, which is off the power grid. He estimated two hours of sunshine are needed every three days to fill the water tank that can store a three-day water supply. Bishop has a gasoline pump as a backup power source. The solar-powered water pump, which was installed last fall, has worked well, according to Bishop. He has used solar power to run his summer pasture electric fences for five years. PrairiErth is a diversified organic farm that produces corn, soybeans, oats, alfalfa
hay, pastured beef and poultry, and vegetables for local markets. The website is {www.prairierthfarm.com}. “Small farms are really making a comeback,” Bishop said. “There is an opportunity for alternative production. This is about offering consumers
‘Alternative agriculture is tr ying to figure out ways to be less v u l n e r a bl e a n d less dependent on high energy and oil prices.’ — Dave Bishop organic farmer
choices in what they buy, and farmers a choice in what they produce.” Other farmers and their landowners frequently ask Bishop about his operation and how it compares with conventional farm operations. Bishop points to soil tests that show a substantial increase in his soil organic matter. “The point is this production system can work. I’m trying to get the cold, hard data,” he said. Data on alternative farming
Landowner wind energy 101 focus of two October meetings Landowners will receive a crash course on wind energy development at two Oct. 7 forums in the Chicago area. The meetings are sponsored by Illinois Farm Bureau, the Illinois Wind Working Group (IWWG), and the University of Illinois Extension. Early registration deadline is Oct. 1. The program is designed to give landowners a heads up on issues stemming from development of wind farms, according to Dave Loomis, an Illinois State University (ISU) professor and IWWG leader. One session will cover legal ramifications of a wind farm development on farmland. “In the (wind development) contract, they’re (landowners) giving away some of their rights, and they need to understand what that could lead to,” Loomis said. For example, a landowner could face restrictions on where — or even if — a grain bin or some other farm structure could be built, depending on the legal agreement with a wind developer. “There may be a (structure) height restriction because a developer doesn’t want anything to block the wind,” Loomis added. Another session will focus on farming issues that landowners should discuss with their farm operators. The forums will be Oct. 7 from 11 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. in the ISU Chicago office, 150 N. Michigan Ave., Suite 1590; and from 4 to 6:30 p.m. in the Midwest Golf House, 11855 Archer Ave., Lemont. The registration fee is $25 by Oct. 1 and increases to $30 after that date. Registration may be completed online or by mail. For online registration go to {http://renewableenergy.illinoisstate.edu/wind/conferences/La ndownerOct2009.shtml} and follow the instructions. For more information or to register by mail, call the ISU Center for Renewable Energy at 309-438-7919 or e-mail RenewableEnergy@ilstu.edu. — Kay Shipman
Atlanta farmer Dave Bishop uses a solar panel to pump water for calves on a summer pasture. A smaller solar panel also powers electric fences surrounding several pastures. His solar power will be highlighted on a tour for the National Small Farm Conference. (Photo by Kay Shipman)
will be among the topics discussed at the National Small Farm Conference that will attract agriculture educators, Extension specialists, and other ag professionals who work with farmers. The event will be in the Hilton Springfield and the Prairie Capital Convention Center. The conference, which is
held every three to four years, will include five short courses, seven tours, more than 100 presentations, and more than 50 exhibits. A $300 registration fee covers a registration packet, two breakfasts, two lunches, one reception, one dinner, the conference tour, and refreshments. Registration may be handled
online at {www.conferences. uiuc.edu/smallfarm}. Registrations also may be faxed to the University of Illinois Conferences and Institutes at 217333-9561 or mailed to Small Farm Conference, Cashiering Office, University of Illinois, 162 Henry Administration Building, 506 S. Wright St., Urbana, Ill., 61801.
FarmWeek Page 10 Monday, September 7, 2009
EDUCATION
Transfer students swelling ACES ranks at U of I BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek
More agriculture students brought college credits with them this fall to the University of Illinois’ Urbana campus. In fact, the College of Agricultural, Consumer, and Environmental Laurie Kramer Sciences (ACES) saw nearly a 50 percent increase in the number of transfer students, said Laurie Kramer, associate dean for aca-
demic programs. Transfer students include those who have earned associate degrees or credits at community colleges. Preliminary ACES enrollment figures show undergraduate enrollment is 2,379 students with 625 freshmen, 446 sophomores, 603 juniors, and 705 seniors. Official totals, which won’t be released until this week, may vary slightly. “We believe the number of transfer students is greater because we’ve been working with community colleges and working with students, helping them plan ahead,” Kramer said.
For example, ACES recently added an online guide for students planning to transfer credits to the U of I to earn a
bachelor’s degree. Kramer also said the economy has influenced the number of students starting their college careers at community colleges. Traditionally, community college costs are lower, and many students also reduce room and board expenses by living at home. Within ACES, crop sciences and natural resource and environmental sciences courses have reached capacity enrollment, while agricultural economics is near capacity. “We’re seeing more transfer student interest in those courses,” Kramer added.
This fall’s enrollment trend may provide a glimpse into the future given the increased cooperation between the U of I and community colleges. For the first time, an ACES professor will teach an introductory animal science class to about 44 students enrolled at six community colleges around the state. The students will have a couple of related Saturday lab classes, most likely on the Urbana campus, Kramer said. Participating community colleges will be able to offer their students one U of I ag class online each semester. In addition to animal science, future online classes will include crop science, soil science, and horticulture. And the U of I is entering its second year of a dualadmission, dual-credit program with Parkland College in Champaign, Kramer noted. Students enroll in Parkland and pay community college tuition, while taking a course at the U of I. If they meet the program requirements, they are guaranteed admission to the U of I. The Parkland Pathway program is generating interest from U.S. students from as far away as Seattle, Wash., and from international students, Kramer said. The influx of students transferring from community colleges to the U of I is no accident, according to Kramer. “That’s one of our goals. We’re particularly interested in helping students with associate degrees complete bachelor degrees,” Kramer said.
CSP meetings set The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) and the Illinois Stewardship Alliance will have three meetings this week to provide information about the revamped Conservation Stewardship Program (CSP). Through CSP, enrolled farmers address natural resource concerns in a comprehensive plan. Sign-up is open and offered on a continuous basis. The dates and locations are: • Tuesday, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m., the Williamson County Pavilion, Marion; • Thursday, 10 a.m. to 1 p.m., Richland Community College’s Schilling Auditorium, Decatur; and • Friday, 10 a.m. to noon, DeKalb County Farm Bureau Auditorium, Sycamore.
FarmWeek Page 11 Monday, September 7, 2009
RURAL HEALTH
Kirk: Alternate health plan would lower costs BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
As Congress girds for debate over sweeping health care proposals, a Northern Illinois congressman touts alternatives designed to “lower health care costs for Americans without any need to tap the Treasury for a trillion dollars.” U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk, a Highland Park Republican, authored his party’s alternative to House Resolution 3200, a Democrat health plan that seeks a government-managed “public option” for the underor uninsured and mandates employer health coverage. Kirk’s plan includes three basic “pillars”: • A “medical rights” component that would prevent Congress from interfering with patient-doctor care decisions. • “Defensive medicine” provisions, including malpractice lawsuit reforms aimed at lowering health costs and fully electronic, patient-owned records that could be transferred between physicians, ensuring doctors do not have to unnecessarily repeat costly diagnostic procedures. • Reforms aimed at “breaking up little insurance monop-
Horse rescue group relocates to Elgin The Illinois Equine Humane Center recently relocated its operation to an Elgin farm. The group’s goal is to provide humane treatment and shelter while working as a clearinghouse to seek adoptive homes for all of Illinois’ unwanted equines, regardless of breed. The group also seeks to educate and raise awareness for responsible equine ownership so that fewer horses end up at slaughter houses or in abusive situations. For information, go online to {www.ilehc.org} or call 847-464-0169.
olies” that contribute to higher medical costs. “Americans should be allowed to buy insurance from any state in the union, and individuals should get the same (insurance) tax breaks employers get,” Kirk told FarmWeek. “I don’t think we should borrow a trillion (to fund health care). I don’t think we should have the government take over health care. “I’ve lived overseas as part of the military and seen the problems they’ve had (with government health care). When you look at cancer survival rates alone, the picture (abroad) has improved, but the average American survives
cancer by a higher rate than the average European.” While malpractice reform critics suggest physicians
He favors designating “health courts” to rule in malpractice cases and appointing experts to determine “commu-
of a new CNN/USA Today poll that found 51 percent of Americans surveyed opposed Obama’s health proposals.
‘ I don’t think we should borrow a trillion (to fund health care). I don’t think we should have the government take over health care.’ — U.S. Rep. Mark Kirk Highland Park Republican
rather than patients would benefit, Kirk said uncontrolled malpractice awards “benefit one sector of the economy — trial lawyers — at the great expense of the rest of us.”
nity standards of care.” Kirk expects HR 3200 to come to the floor this month. President Obama plans to outline his “vision for health care reform” this week, in the wake
“If the leaders of Congress go for a viciously partisan bill, they may get toward the finish line, but they’ll pay dearly at the election polls,” Kirk warned.
FarmWeek Page 12 Monday, September 7, 2009
THE RIVERS
River users seek overall $$, question new fees BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
As Congress eyes proposed new lock fees that would hit Midwest shippers particularly hard, river users are seeking ways to ensure both timely and “well-spent” river funds. House appropriations legislation includes $5.541 billion for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ fiscal 2010 “civil works” program, which includes lock operations, maintenance, and construction, while the Senate proposes $5.405 billion. That’s as ag and shipping interests seek funds to move toward construction of seven new 1,200-foot locks on the
Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. The Senate seeks $9 million for pre-construction engineering design (PED) work over the next year; the House offers no PED funds. St. Louis Corps planner Jeff Stamper told FarmWeek PED work on Mississippi Locks 22 and 25 is moving “at a pretty good pace,” but design work for Illinois’ LaGrange Lock is lagging due to a lack of funding. “Given unconstrained funding, we could hit the ground running, build a single lock within six years,” Stamper said. “Given unconstrained funds, we could stagger their starts
and maybe complete the whole system in 15 to 20 years.” New construction requires a 50-50 split of federal funds and Inland Waterways Trust Fund revenues derived from barge fuel taxes. Amid low trust fund reserves, the administration has recommended new lockage fees of $90 or more per barge, raising Midwest hackles. Nearly 90 House members signed a late August letter opposing new fees, including a dozen bipartisan downstate and Chicago-area congressmen. National Corn Growers Association CEO Rick Tolman
fears lock fees would “pass right through to users” via higher ag freight rates. “With corn prices coming down and our having a big crop, that’s not what we need to hear,” he said. With nearly 4,000 barges, Ingram Barge is one of the industry’s largest grain carriers. Ingram Assistant Vice President Jerry Knapper is concerned not only about new lock funding but also about older, deteriorating existing locks. Lock maintenance is a discretionary rather than mandatory budget expense, and Knapper notes the Corps is “caught up” in the battle for discretionary dollars. At the same time, he stressed the
need for “wiser use” of funds “especially if we’re going to be called upon to make additional contributions.” “We’re engaged with the Corps of Engineers in an effort to try to understand how much work is really needed out there, where it’s needed, and when,” he related. Corps officials are “just now getting to the point where they think they have a pretty comprehensive listing of their assets. We can imagine how much more difficult it is putting together a 20- or 30year plan to maintain those assets. It would be comforting to know (new fees) would be well-spent.”
County FBs key in petition drive Western Illinois county Farm Bureaus and drainage/levee districts joined in a holiday weekend push to improve regional flood protections. Warren-Henderson County Farm Bureau joined last week with Hancock, Adams, and Pike County Farm Bureaus; the Upper Mississippi, Illinois, and Missouri River Association (UMIMRA); and Hunt, Lima Lakes, Fabius, and Sny drainage districts in a petition drive effort. The drive is in support of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Upper Mississippi/Illinois River comprehensive flood management plan and 500-year flood protection for area farms, businesses, and residents. Under 500-year flood protection, an area faces an annual 0.2 of a percent chance of serious flooding. As of last week, nearly 3,000 signatures had been obtained in cooperation with Iowa and Missouri groups. Hancock County Farm Bureau Manager Carla Mudd helped coordinate efforts to obtain additional signatures at three regional Labor Day weekend festivals. Petitions will be circulated at least through Friday and then delivered to U.S. Rep. Phil Hare, a Rock Island Democrat who supports congressional approval of the floodplain plan. Drive participants also will raise awareness of the campaign among Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri lawmakers. “People are excited about signing this petition,” Mudd told FarmWeek. “Some of these people have gone through several floods, some of them just recently, in ’08 and ’93. “This has only been going on for 30 days, and we’ve already gotten this many signatures. Our goal is 10,000.” Meanwhile, Illinois Farm Bureau addressed flood protection and lock funding issues during an August meeting of the Mississippi River Commission (MRC) as part of a rare commission tour of the Illinois River. Beyond Hare’s efforts, Rep. Jerry Costello, a Belleville Democrat, has proposed freezing flood insurance rates for property owners in the Mississippi floodplain for at least seven years. The proposal would prevent changes to federal insurance rates in areas in which there is an active effort to fix levees, including Madison, St. Clair, and Monroe counties. — Martin Ross
FarmWeek Page 13 Monday, September 7, 2009
FROM THE COUNTIES
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U R E AU — The fall task force meeting will be at 6 p.m. Tuesday at Wise Guys, Princeton. Members will be able to choose from four main task force committees to participate: education, member relations, farm business, and government and policy. Meetings are held only twice a year. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-8756468 for more information. D G A R — Farm Bureau will sponsor a truck and transportation safety meeting at 9 a.m. Wednesday at the Edgar County 4-H Fairgrounds. A panel of representatives from Illinois Farm Bureau, Illinois State Police, and the Illinois Department of Transportation will attend. A truck safety inspection will follow the meeting. Call the Farm Bureau office at 217-465-8511 for reservations or more information. • Farm Bureau will sponsor a defensive driving course from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept. 29-30, at the Edgar County 4-H building. Cost is $40, which includes lunch and materials. Those 55 and over who complete the course may be eligible for a discount on their auto insurance. Call the Farm Bureau office for more information. FFINGHAM — Farm Bureau is tak-
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Auction Calendar Wed., Sept. 9. 198 Acres McLean County. Soy Capital Ag Services. Thurs., Sept. 10. 10 a.m. Farm and Livestock Eq. and Miscellaneous. Heritage Pork Farm, Inc. and Pork Place, Inc., LINCOLN, IL. Mike Maske Auction Service. Sat., Sept. 12. 10 a.m. Estate Farm Auction. Everett Quint Estate, METROPOLIS, IL. Kent Korte, Auctioneer Wed., Sept. 16. 251 Acres McLean County. Soy Capital Ag Services. Tues., Sept. 22. 80 Acres Edgar County. Soy Capital Ag Services Sat., Oct. 3. 10 a.m. Land Auction. Kenneth and Sam Gehant, MENDOTA, IL. Espe Auctioneering.
ing orders for Southern Illinois apples — Jonathon, Red Delicious, and Golden Delicious. Prices are $20 for one bushel, $11 for onehalf bushel, and $6 for onefourth bushel. Deadline for orders is Friday. Delivery to the Farm Bureau office will be at 1 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 16. Call the Farm Bureau office at 217-3422103 to order or for more information. RU N DY — The Marketing Committee and McArdle Grain will sponsor a marketing outlook seminar at 6:30 p.m. Tuesday, Sept. 15, at the Mazon American Legion. The panel will be moderated by Dave Dickey, WILL AM580. Pizza will be
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served. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-9426400 for reservations or more information. • Seats are available for the bus trip to the Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Thursday, Sept. 17. Tickets are $45 for members and $50 for non-members. The bus will leave the Farm Bureau parking lot at 9 a.m. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-942-6400 for more information. ONTGOMERY — The Prime Timers will meet at noon Wednesday, Sept. 16, at the Farm Bureau office. A barbeque pork loin dinner will be served. Cost is $8. Darlene Spears will provide the entertainment. Call the
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Farm Bureau office at 217532-6171 for more information. • The Prime Timers will sponsor a bus trip Sunday, Sept. 20, to Conklin’s Barn II Dinner Theatre, Goodfield. The group will see “Rumors” by Neil Simon. Cost is $50. The bus will leave at 8:50 a.m. from the former Kroger parking lot, Litchfield; at 9:05 a.m. from the Farm Bureau office; and at 9:30 a.m. from the Nokomis park. Call the Farm Bureau office at 217532-6171 for more information. I A T T — Farm Bureau is forming a Wildlife Committee. An informational meeting will be at 6:30 p.m. Thursday at
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the Farm Bureau office. Call the Farm Bureau office for more information. • The Prime Timers will sponsor a trip to Galena Oct. 22-24. Included in the tour will be the Galena Cellars and Vineyards, a Victorian progressive dinner, a guided tour of Galena, a ghost tour, a cruise along the Mississippi River, and a stop at John Deere Works in Moline. Call the Farm Bureau office at 762-2128 for more information and cost. “From the counties” items are submitted by county Farm Bureau managers. If you have an event or activity open to all members, contact your county manager.
FarmWeek Page 14 Monday, September 7, 2009
PROFITABILITY
Crop diseases may demand your attention BY MATT HYNES
July 2009 was the coldest July on record, almost 5 degrees below normal. Should we be concerned about the “F” word — you know — frost? It’s too early to say. The state climatologist is Matt Hynes forecasting a warmer fall. There’s not much we can do about it, so let’s look at some other issues that may need your attention. Cornstalk quality should be high on your list of things to look for. With shorter days and cool weather, we can expect stalk pathogens to gain an additional advantage.
It will be important to prioritize harvest for fields at greatest risk from loss of stalk quality. Fields treated with foliar fungicides might have a bonus of better stalk quality because foliar diseases often make the plant vulnerable to stalk rots. Also, keep an eye out for top dieback and anthracnose stalk rot this fall. Early anthracnose infection levels were high in many fields, so inoculums levels could be high. In soybeans, Sclerotinia white mold has shown up farther south than usual and in fields where it has not been found before. Additionally, weather conditions have resulted in greater severity of white mold infections. The
M A R K Feeder E T pigFA CTS prices reported to USDA* Weight 10 lbs. 40 lbs. 50 lbs. Receipts
Range Per Head Weighted Ave. Price $6.97-$31.25 $21.52 n/a n/a n/a n/a This Week Last Week 19,091 21,274 *Eastern Corn Belt prices picked up at seller’s farm
Eastern Corn Belt direct hogs (plant delivered) Carcass Live
(Prices $ per hundredweight) This week Prev. week $45.09 $44.57 $33.37 $32.98
Change 0.52 0.38
USDA five-state area slaughter cattle price (Thursday’s price) Steers Heifers
This week 83.52 84.00
Prv. week 84.78 84.81
Change -1.26 -0.81
CME feeder cattle index — 600-800 Lbs. This is a composite price of feeder cattle transactions in 27 states. (Prices $ per hundredweight) This week Prev. week Change 98.95 99.65 -0.70
Lamb prices Confirmed lamb and sheep sales This week 814 Last week 799 Last year 897 Wooled Slaughter Lambs: Choice and Prime 1-2: 90-110 lbs, $98. Choice and Prime 2-3: 90-110 lbs., $91; 110-130 lbs., $94. Good and Choice 1-2: 60-90 lbs., $108.Slaughter Ewes: Utility and Good 1-3: $26-$29. Cull and Utility 1-2: $24-$26.
Export inspections (Million bushels)
Week ending Soybeans Wheat 08-27-09 17.0 15.5 08-20-09 11.2 17.6 Last year 11.8 31.5 Season total 1233.6 179.2 Previous season total 1117.9 326.7 USDA projected total 1210 980 Crop marketing year began June 1 for wheat and Sept. 1 for corn and soybeans.
Corn 34.9 42.1 39.5 1761.2 2334.1 1700
key factor to managing white mold is method and timing of infection. White mold infects soybeans through dead blossoms that have fallen and are resting on a leaf. Since dead blossoms are critical for white mold infection, it is reasonable to assume that the greatest amount of infection occurs at the R2 and R3 growth stages. Most fungicide treatments are typically scheduled for
R1 to R2. Consult your FS crop specialist for more information regarding this disease. They are welltrained and can assist you in making decisions. Lastly, I would challenge all growers who have planted or know someone who has planted FS HiSOY® Genuity™ Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybeans to look at their plants. This new trait may boost your soybean yields by as much as 7-11 percent.
That equates to six more beans per plant — that’s all! Go look at the FS HiSOY® Genuity™ Roundup Ready 2 Yield® soybeans and see how many more four-bean pods there are over the RR 1 traited soybeans — you will be amazed. Don’t be surprised if you see some five-bean pods, either. Matt Hynes is FS seed sales and marketing manager. His e-mail address is mhynes@growmark.com
Wheat basis still ‘broken;’ price outlook bearish BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
The basis for corn and soybeans returned to more of a normal relationship this year, but a disconnect remains between cash and futures prices for wheat, according to John Brink, president of the Illinois Wheat Association. Local prices for wheat this summer during harvest were as much as $1.50 to $2 below futures prices, said Brink, who is a wheat grower from Washington County. “The wheat basis is still an issue,” Brink told FarmWeek during the recent Illinois Wheat Forum in Highland. “It seems like the cash market has become disconnected from the futures market. It is a frustrating thing.” Jeff Hainline of Advance Trading reported prior to harvest that the soft red winter wheat contract has not converged since 2005. The situation has been so problematic that wheat growers have been advised to basically ignore the futures contract as a true price discovery mechanism. “You can’t view (the wheat futures contract) as the value of your wheat,” Rob Huston, manager of AgriVisor, told wheat growers at the forum. “It (the true value) is what local buyers are willing to pay for it.” Unfortunately, Huston believes the wheat basis is “broken” and basis levels in the near future “may be more volatile than ever before.” Meanwhile, crop prices may remain bearish leading up to the fall harvest, Huston said. Current supplies of wheat are enough to satisfy demand for 122 days compared to just 48 days of supply when stocks were tighter and prices were higher in 2006. “My bias is (the crop markets) will be in a slow grind, with not much upside between now and harvest,” Huston
said. “Post-harvest, I think we bushels, up 250 million could see a rebound of bushels from the marketing prices.” year that just ended, and soy Huston proexports in the jected prices 2009-10 marafter harvest or keting year are ‘It seems like the projected to in 2010 could reach $4 per cash market has match the bushel for set this become discon- record corn, $10 to year of 1.265 nected from the billion bushels. $11 for beans, and $6.50 for If economic futures market.’ wheat. recovery occurs Darrel — John Brink in coming Good, Univermonths and Illinois Wheat Association sity of Illinois demand picks Extension up, “a modest economist, increase in agreed a post-harvest rally is prices would be expected folpossible. Corn exports are lowing the harvest of large projected to reach 2.1 billion crops,” Good said.
Milk prices turning around The price for Class III milk adjusted to 3.5 percent for the month of August was $11.20. This represents an increase of $1.23 over the previous month. After experiencing some of the lowest levels in nearly 10 years, milk prices have shown some new life. A cool summer left ice cream demand soft. But now that school is back in session, demand has shown a marked increase and given milk prices a much-needed boost.
FarmWeek Page 15 Monday, September 7, 2009
PROFITABILITY Corn Strategy
C A S H S T R AT E G I S T
Larger crop forecasts expected The latest crop estimates from Informa and FC Stone reinforced the notion USDA could project larger corn and soybean crops in its Friday report. However, that’s not guaranteed, especially in the case of soybeans. There’s no doubt summer weather has favored the possibility of exceptionally good corn yields. Corn is a grass, and grasses like cool, damp conditions. The biggest hurdle the corn crop has yet to face is the timing of the end of the growing season. And it needs to come no sooner than normal, and preferably a little later. Soybeans, however, tend to perform better when the weather is a little warm. Like corn, development is way behind, leaving the crop vulnerable to end-of-season weather problems. We’ve looked back at recent history and identified three years (1984, 1996, and 2008) in which the crops were both planted late and experienced cool Julys. Of
Basis charts
the three, 1996 has another similarity, a generally flat condition rating pattern through the growing season — a slightly lower level, but still flat. On average, the condition of the corn and soybean crops tends to erode during the growing season. Even in years with exceptional crops such as1994, the condition ratings had some volatility. In 1996, the final yields for corn and soybeans ended close to the trend yields that we use, ones that are different from the trade. Our corn yield trend is a little steeper, while our soybean trend probably is a little flatter. The August USDA corn yield projection (159.5 bushels) is only a little above the trend we use, one that stretches back only to the end of the 1980s. The August USDA soybean yield estimate (41.7 bushels) was 2 bushels above the trend we use. This year’s ear counts, good moisture, and lack of stress justify potential for excellent corn yields. Whether they can get into the high 160s like some analysts think may be a stretch because of the extreme lag in maturity. Even a normal frost could trim some bushels off potential, but not a significant amount. Soybeans are quite another story, especially with pod counts below normal in some key states. A normal frost could easily trim some bushels, and given the already tight fundamental structure, soybeans don’t have many bushels to give up. And because of this year’s extreme lag in maturity, a frost one to two weeks early could trim more bushels than some analysts want to consider. It’s important to remember USDA always assumes a normal end to the growing season when forecasting yield potential on each of its monthly reports. AgriVisor endorses crop insurance by
AgriVisor LLC 1701 N. Towanda Avenue PO Box 2500 Bloomington IL 61702-2901 309-557-3147 AgriVisor LLC is not liable for any damages which anyone may sustain by reason of inaccuracy or inadequacy of information provided herein, any error of judgment involving any projections, recommendations, or advice or any other act of omission.
Policies issued by COUNTRY Mutual Insurance Company®, Bloomington, Illinois AgriVisor Hotline Number
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Cents per bu.
✓2008 crop: We still are inclined to hold inventories until after harvest or use a marketing strategy that would keep pricing open until later this year on existing inventories. ✓2009 crop: Corn prices once again dropped, but we see little downside risk below $3.11 on the December contract. Until the 20- and 40week cycle lows can be confirmed, the action could be choppy in a sideways-to-lower trend. We see no reason to make additional new-crop sales until later this year. ❖Fundamentals: Attention is focused on the size of the crop, with most expecting it to get larger. This idea was enhanced by estimates by FC Stone and Informa for the upcoming USDA report (Friday) to forecast a crop just above 13 billion bushels. USDA predicted a 12.76-billion-bushel crop in August. Nevertheless, if an early frost strikes, it could trim yield potential enough to tighten supplies this coming year.
Soybean Strategy ✓2008 crop: The old-crop premium is rapidly disappearing. If you chose to hold soybeans, you understood the risk of losing the premium. If the premium has disappeared and you still have soybeans, plan to hold them into post-harvest. ✓2009 crop: Prices are in the early part of the window for the 8-9-week cycle to bottom. Even if prices drop lower than expected in the short term, the demand base is strong enough to carry prices back to these levels after harvest. Friday’s USDA report may be a key short-term variable. ❖Fundamentals: Weather is the most critical short-term variable after the USDA report. The extreme lag in maturity has left a significant portion of the crop vulnerable to some damage even from a normal frost. Given the relatively tight fundamentals, even a modest reduction increases the need for a good South
American crop this coming year.
Wheat Strategy ✓2009 crop: Abundant wheat supplies continue to pull prices slowly lower. Compared to other commodities, other than corn, wheat remains a good value. Egypt’s more aggressive buying at these lower prices supports that argument. Hold off additional sales; better pricing opportunities should come this fall or winter. Before advising even catchup sales, we’re going to give
the market an opportunity to rally back above $5 on Chicago futures. ❖Fundamentals: Early reports from North Dakota indicate spring wheat yields are a little better than expected. A frost could clip some bushels, but not enough to have significant implications. Chicago prices are feeling pressure from softer values at the Minneapolis Board of Trade. However, Egypt’s more aggressive buying, and inclusion of U.S. purchases, hints demand may be improving.
FarmWeek Page 16 Monday, September 7, 2009
PERSPECTIVES
Marketplace holds answer to dairy’s dilemma American consumers today are enjoying comparatively affordable prices for milk and dairy products. Consumers know — as does every dairy farmer — when milk prices go up, they eventually will BILL BRUINS go down and vice versa. guest columnist It’s called supply and demand. It’s how the dairy marketplace should be allowed to work. If history repeats itself (and it usually does), the extremely low prices farmers are suffering today likely will rebound next year. In the meantime, many dairy farmers are holding on as their farms lose equity, and many are tempted to turn to the federal government for help. Some go as far as publicly saying depression-era prices and skyrocketing production costs will result in all dairy cows disappearing in a matter of weeks, unless the government takes control of the market. While Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack recently pledged a billion dollars of federal support, he acknowledges it will not move
the needle much on prices. We dairy farmers must remember throughout our current dilemma that the same force that gave us the glory of $20 (per hundredweight) milk in 2008 is the same one giving us the grumbling of $10 milk in 2009. That force is the marketplace. Yes, the government does have a role in regulating the industry, and it does set the basic price for our milk. However, that price is largely determined by the marketplace’s forces of supply and demand. Some are cheering USDA’s decision to raise the product price formula. Yet, when that was last tried under President Carter’s administration, government warehouses soon overflowed with excess dairy products.
The nation’s dairy herd needed to be reduced, so the government also established the whole herd buy-out program at considerable cost to taxpayers. Beef producers have never forgotten what it did to their industry as more cattle hit the market. Every time dairy prices dip, some farmers talk about a supply-management program. However, a governmentcontrolled reduction in the supply of milk is doomed to fail since other dairy-producing nations would race to replace it. We import more milk products than we export. Even with our low prices, domestic processors (including our
major cooperatives) can buy foreign products cheaper than U.S. products, largely due to our antiquated milk pricing system. Global trade is a fact of life. Last year the U.S. exported nearly 11 percent of its dairy production. When the world economy tanked, demand dropped and prices collapsed. When domestic prices reached support levels, U.S. dairy products began to flow into government warehouses instead of world markets. The global demand for milk protein remains strong, but given the global economic turmoil, we just can’t provide it for the right price. Winning back the world market is vital to the long-term growth of the U.S. dairy industry. It won’t be easy, but America’s dairy farmers will adjust. Our dairy industry will recover, and American consumers will continue to enjoy an ample supply of domestic dairy products. Bill Bruins, a dairy farmer from Waupun, Wis., is president of the Wisconsin Farm Bureau.
Farming article was a journalistic time bomb “Farmers aren’t the enemy,” insists Time magazine in its recent cover story. It’s just that everything we do is bad for people, animals, and the environment. I’ve experienced acts of drive-by journalism before: Some reporter travels to farm country, spends a day or two staring at barns and cornstalks, and then returns to his air-conditioned office in the city. From this comfortable perch, he tries to lecture us hayseeds on agriculture. Bryan Walsh of Time has taken this brand of arrogance to a new level. He actually thinks farmers are dooming America to “a future of eroded farmland, hollowed-out countryside, scarier germs, higher health costs — and bland taste.” The United States would be a betJOHN ter place, Walsh claims, if farmers REIFSTECK would change the basics of their business. He wants us to replace our cornfields and tractors with little plots of organic arugula and packs of weed-picking farmhands. Then, instead of loading our products onto trucks and trains for destinations near and far, we’ll put on our plaid shirts and sell our wares from horse-drawn carts at the local farmers’ market. It’s a nice fantasy, especially for people who don’t value the incredible productivity and efficiency of modern agriculture, which makes it possible for Minnesotans to drink orange juice at reasonable prices in January. Walsh has the decency to admit that the adoption of his radical theories would force grocery-store bills to skyrocket: “Organic food continues to cost on average several times more than its conventional counterparts,” he writes. That statement is one of the few indisputable facts to be found in his entire article. Fads are nothing new in journalism, of course. Just last year, Time was busy bemoaning the cost of what we eat: “Soaring food prices have erupted into a global crisis with potentially dire consequences for millions of people,” warned the magazine in its June 16, 2008, issue. Writer Vivienne Walt called for more chemical fertilizers and genetically modified crops — innovations that “could dramatically improve the world’s ability to feed itself.” But that was so 2008, back in history days. Are
journalists and their editors seriously supposed to keep track of their concerns from long ago? Maybe Time’s staff writers should take a break from contradicting themselves and hold a debate: Walt vs. Walsh on the challenges and costs of food production. Meanwhile, I’ll stick to raising my crops, so that these scribblers can argue with full bellies. As it happens, Walt was correct last year when she said that farmers must embrace modern technology in order to feed a booming world population. There is no other way to confront this important, ongoing problem. Walsh’s conflicting advice in the current issue is sheer nonsense. He offers it in the name of “sustainability,” a buzzword whose true meaning he doesn’t even begin to understand. There’s nothing sustainable about turning our backs on safe and proven methods of food production, especially when human lives are on the line. I have no quarrel with organic food. If Walsh wants to eat it, he should choose to buy it. Farmers, too, should be free to meet this market demand. But let’s not fool ourselves into thinking that organic food can feed a planet with billions of people. Instead, it would lead to less wilderness
and more hunger. I’m not eager to tell the writers and editors of Time how to do their jobs. I may be an occasional consumer of what they produce, but I’m no expert at publishing magazines. I certainly wouldn’t suggest that they replace their computers with typewriters or their printing presses with woodblocks. I do believe they should spend more time talking to the real experts on agriculture: farmers, ranchers, landgrant researchers, and so on. Yet, they seem most interested in bossing us around: They want us to quit our modern practices in favor of primitivism. We should make a deal. If journalists at Time and elsewhere will stop telling me how to work the land, soulfully or otherwise, I won’t tell them how to write articles. It will give me something good to read now and then — and it will keep them well fed, even if they decide to take the food on their forks for granted. John Reifsteck, a corn and soybean farmer in western Champaign County, is a board member of Truth About Trade and Technology (www.truthabouttrade.org).
Letter to the editor North Dakota’s success transcends politics Editor: In the Aug. 31 edition of FarmWeek, Mr. John Block described the rosy situation in North Dakota with a state budget surplus and the lowest unemployment in the nation. He attributes it to the conservative politics of its people and contrasts North Dakota with California where he blames liberal politics for California’s state financial woes. But could there be an explanation for North Dakota’s success outside the realm of politics? As it turns out, there is an explanation. North Dakota is the beneficiary of an oil boom with thousands of new jobs directly or indirectly resulting from oil exploration in a relatively recent find. This is very significant in a state with a population of only about 650,000 people. Besides the recent oil boom, there is also a longerterm effect that is somewhat related to politics.
North Dakota has long been a leading beneficiary of federal spending. For instance, in fiscal year 2005, the federal government spent $1.68 in North Dakota for every dollar in federal taxes collected there. In contrast, California received only 78 cents in spending for each dollar in taxes collected. Illinois received only 75 cents. I don’t mean to disparage the hardy people of North Dakota, but viewed in this light, North Dakota is a welfare recipient and California and Illinois are the donors. Mr. Block said, “Let’s be more like North Dakota than California.” In terms of the state budget surplus and rosy employment, I agree. But let’s have a more complete understanding of how both states got to where they find themselves today. JAMES E. HINCHEE, Bloomington