57 DAYS REMAIN UNTIL THE NOV. 6 ELECTION
IllInoIs state University experienced 10 percent growth in students majoring in agriculture while overall university enrollment was down slightly. ...........................5
too ManY eaRs of corn looking like this are coming out of Illinois fields this year. USDA is expected to lower its production estimate this week. .........................7
Monday, September 10, 2012
Two sections Volume 40, No. 37
Climatologist: Rapid drought recovery unusual BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Periodicals: Time Valued
Recent rainfall arrived too late to save most of the drought-parched crops in Illinois. But the shift in the weather pattern provided rapid recovery from the drought, particularly in the southern twothirds of the state. In fact, Jim Angel, state climatologist who has worked at the Illinois State Water Survey since 1984, said he can’t recall seeing such a dramatic easing of drought conditions in such a short period of time. The majority of the state prior to Labor Day weekend was locked in extreme to exceptional drought. But last week drought ratings across the state were downgraded to moderate to severe on the U.S. Drought Monitor. “I don’t think I’ve ever seen fortunes reversed so quickly,” Angel said. “This was very unusual.” Illinois in August received an average of 3.4 inches of rain. Some areas received much more, including 10.69 inches in Grayville in the southeast and 8.33 inches in Hoopeston in East-Central Illinois. Remnants of Hurricane
Isaac followed and dumped 2 to 6-plus inches of rain on much of the southern twothirds of the state the first two days of this month. More scattered rainfall, including pockets of heavy precipitation, soaked some parts of the state late last week. “We have kind of broken out of the pattern we saw in the spring and early summer that was dominated by a high pressure system,” Angel said. “Now, it’s almost more fall-like.” Unfortunately, the recent rainfall did not blanket all areas of the state. “It (rain from the tropical depression) almost all fell south of Interstate 80,” Angel said. “We really didn’t see much improvement” in Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois as of Friday was the driest portion of the state with a large area still
in the grips of extreme drought. (See graphic) Elsewhere, the situation looked much better. “We’ve had a nice recovery of soil moisture,” Angel said. “It’s back within the range you’d expect this time of year.” Topsoil moisture across the state last week was rated 47 percent short or very short, 51 percent adequate, and 2 percent surplus. This was the largest portion of cropland with topsoil moisture rated adequate and surplus since mid-May, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service Illinois field office. “It doesn’t mean it (the recent rain) has undone all the damage already done (by the drought),” Angel said. “Unfortunately, a lot of the rain came too late to be of any benefit to
the corn and most of the beans. “It will, however, help pasture conditions. I think we’ll see a nice recovery there,” he added. “And it puts us in better shape to plant winter wheat.” Illinois the past three
months experienced the sixthdriest and eighth-warmest summer on record with average precipitation of 6.64 inches (5.21 inches below normal) and an average temperature of 76.1 degrees (2.6 degrees above normal).
Conservancy deems farm bill key to stewardship gains BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
If there’s a overarching reason why the U.S. is unlikely to see another Depressionera Dust Bowl, it’s the farm bill, Sean McMahon argues. And that’s why a 2012 farm bill is crucial in maintaining conservation gains of the last 80 years and preparing for the environmental concerns of tomorrow, said McMahon, The Nature Conservancy’s (TNC) North American agriculture program director. The group’s among the latest to join the Farm Bill Now coalition — a broad-based corps of farm (including Farm Bureau), ag-affiliated, government, energy, and conservation interests pushing for September passage of a five-year farm bill. Last week, Sen. Charles Grassley (RIowa) warned a one-year extension of the current farm bill was possible “with farm legislation sunsetting Sept. 30.” Ag conservation initiatives — and funding — are crucial in helping farmers “meet the growing domestic and international demand for food, feed, fiber, and
fuel in an increasingly sustainable manner,” McMahon told FarmWeek. Echoing House Ag Chairman Frank Lucas’ (D-Okla.) recent reminders of his state’s Dust Bowl struggles, McMahon stressed the role of marginal and highly erodible land retirement programs in averting a repeat of the 1930s disaster “under, in some cases, even worst conditions” this season. “Some of these programs have a zero (budget) baseline now. If the farm bill’s just extended by a year, they’ll have zero funding. That includes important programs like the Wetlands Reserve Program and Grasslands Reserve Program. “There are a lot of reasons to get the farm bill done now.” This summer’s federal drought response demonstrated the potential for production and conservation interests to work together in Washington, McMahon said. McMahon noted cooperative efforts to allow emergency haying of CRP acres following the end of 2012’s primary nesting season. Just as farm groups have accepted pro-
FarmWeek on the web: FarmWeekNow.com
posed reductions in commodity program spending under House and Senate plans, TNC is reconciled to proposed consolidation of existing conservation programs to shave federal costs. House-Senate proposals grant the Natural Resources Conservation Service greater flexibility in targeting program resources to “priority watersheds and landscapes” and fostering regional partnerships, McMahon said. The Conservation Security Program, a periodic target for budget cuts since its creation in the 2002 farm bill, today is being “more broadly implemented” and is gaining nationwide momentum, McMahon said. He said he has witnessed even greater growth in Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) benefits, bolstered by a current focus on working lands conservation. McMahon touted EQIP’s importance in sustainable range improvement and helping concentrated animal feeding operations or “CAFOs” comply with environmental regulations. “We certainly want to see the farm bill fully utilized by cattlemen,” he said. “We’re supportive of any incentives we can put into place that will help cattle operations remain productive.”
Illinois Farm Bureau®on the web: www.ilfb.org
FarmWeek Page 2 Monday, September 10, 2012
AIDING EDUCATION
Quick Takes SCHNUCKS , PARTNER TO GROW PRODUCE — Schnuck Markets Inc., based in St. Louis, plans to grow its own fresh produce year-round. A 1-acre hydroponic greenhouse will be financed and built by BrightFar ms Inc., a New York company that operates and builds greenhouses. Schnucks released no location, but the greenhouse is expected to supply greens, tomatoes, and herbs for Schnucks stores in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, and Iowa. A local farmer will manage the operation and deliver the produce to the stores. The $2-million greenhouse will produce about 500,000 pounds of tomatoes and greens annually. FATAL DEER DISEASE SURFACES — The Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) reports a viral disease outbreak killed more than 700 deer in 51 counties. Epizootic Hemorrhagic Disease (EHD) is spread by biting gnats and often fatal to deer but isn’t hazardous to humans, livestock, or pets. The disease is more noticeable in drought years whenexposed mudflats are favorable for disease-carrying insects, according to IDNR. Deer also gather around limited water sources and are exposed to the gnats. Cook, Macon, and Calhoun counties reported the highest number of EHD-related deer deaths. Hunters and landowners who find sick or dead deer that may be due to EHD are asked to contact their nearest IDNR field office or regional office. No effective management treatment exists. An insect-killing frost typically ends an EHD outbreak. GREEN GENE — A gene that keeps switchgrass young could have far-reaching implications for cellulosic biofuels development, according to Agriculture Department scientists. Inserting a specific gene called “corngrass” from corn into switchgrass essentially keeps the perennial grass in its juvenile form — a plant that doesn’t flower, doesn’t produce seeds, and doesn’t have a dormant growth phase. Because of these changes, the sugars that make up the plant’s starch are more readily available for conversion into cellulosic ethanol. According to Agricultural Research Service geneticist Sarah Hake, the starch in these transgenic plants stays inside the stem, because it isn’t needed elsewhere for nourishing flower buds and blossoms. As a result, starch levels can increase as much as 250 percent, which increases the sugars that can be fermented into ethanol.
(ISSN0197-6680) Vol. 40 No. 37 September 10, 2012 Dedicated to improving the profitability of farming, and a higher quality of life for Illinois farmers. FarmWeek is produced by the Illinois Farm Bureau. FarmWeek is published each week, except the Mondays following Thanksgiving and Christmas, by the Illinois Agricultural Association, 1701 Towanda Avenue, P.O. Box 2901, Bloomington, IL 61701. Illinois Agricultural Association assumes no responsibility for statements by advertisers or for products or services advertised in FarmWeek. FarmWeek is published by the Illinois Agricultural Association for farm operator members. $3 from the individual membership fee of each of those members go toward the production of FarmWeek.
Address subscription and advertising questions to FarmWeek, P.O. Box 2901, Bloomington, IL 61702-2901. Periodicals postage paid at Bloomington, Illinois, and at an additional mailing office. POSTMASTER: Send change of address notices on Form 3579 to FarmWeek, P.O. Box 2901, Bloomington, IL 61702-2901. Farm Bureau members should send change of addresses to their local county Farm Bureau. © 2012 Illinois Agricultural Association
PEDALING ALONG Above: Some of the 50 cyclists from across Illinois ride to raise money for Illinois Agriculture in the Classroom (IAITC) and to raise awareness about the importance of agriculture. Over two days, the group rode 221 miles in McLean, Piatt, and DeWitt counties. During school assemblies, riders visited nearly 2,000 students who participated in a quiz game. Their teachers received IAITC lessons, bike helmets, and agfact for tune cookies for their entire school. (Photo by Cyndi Cook)
Above: From left, Cara Levingston; her sister, Abby; Parker Daugherty; and Nick Lehr last week participated in a game being directed by Kevin Daugherty, Illinois Farm Bureau education director. The students took part in a skit designed to teach the importance of agriculture at LeRoy Elementary School in LeRoy. (Photo by Ken Kashian. To view additional photos online, visit Ken Kashian’s Photo Gallery located under the Electronic Media & Publications tab at www.ilfb.org.)
‘Adopted’ legislator views drought impact BY CHRISTINA NOURIE
“Adopted” state Rep. Elizabeth “Lisa” Hernandez (DCicero) recently saw the drought’s impact first-hand during a tour of Clark County with her daughter and a legislative assistant. Hernandez was matched with Clark County Farm Bureau through the Illinois Farm Bureau Adopt a Legislator Program. Her group visited several sites that highlighted the drought’s impact on farms in the local area and across the Midwest. Hernandez visited the local Soil and Water Conservation District office and a University of Illinois Extension office to discuss the staffs’ role in agriculture and the effects state funding cuts have had on their operations. Her tour included stops at the Guinnip grain and cattle farm
and the Daugherty green bean farm where Hernandez examined the drought’s effect on this year’s crops. Each farm host explained what farmers do to ensure the best possible crop in light of the difficult weather conditions. They also discussed GMOs and the importance of crop insurance. Livestock issues and the challenges farmers face as a result of the drought also were covered. The representative visited the Miller swine operation and the Keeney family dairy to learn about animal care as well as the impact of high feed costs as a result of the drought. The day concluded with lunch at one of the county’s best tourist attractions, the Moonshine Store, home of the famous Moonshine burger. This was Hernandez’s second
STAFF Editor Dave McClelland (dmcclelland@ilfb.org) Legislative Affairs Editor Kay Shipman (kayship@ilfb.org) Agricultural Affairs Editor Martin Ross (mross@ilfb.org) Senior Commodities Editor Daniel Grant (dgrant@ilfb.org) Editorial Assistant Linda Goltz (Lgoltz@ilfb.org) Business Production Manager Bob Standard (bstandard@ilfb.org) Advertising Sales Manager Richard Verdery (rverdery@ilfb.org) Classified sales coordinator Nan Fannin (nfannin@ilfb.org) Advertising Sales Representatives Hurst and Associates, Inc. P.O. Box 6011, Vernon Hills, IL 60061 1-800-397-8908 (advertising inquiries only) Gary White - Northern Illinois Doug McDaniel - Southern Illinois Editorial phone number: 309-557-2239 Classified advertising: 309-557-3155 Display advertising: 1-800-676-2353
State Rep. Elizabeth “Lisa” Hernandez (D-Cicero) listens as Clark County Farm Bureau Director Don Guinnip discusses his corn crop. The county Farm Bureau recently hosted ‘adopted’ legislator Hernandez, her daughter, and a legislative assistant for up-close views on the drought’s impact on agriculture in the county. (Photo by Christina Nourie)
visit to the county. As a state legislator, she said it is important for her to understand issues beyond her own suburban district, and she noted agricultural issues are particularly important because agriculture is one of the most important industries in the state. She said she plans to work with the Clark County Farm Bureau on sponsoring a trip for high school students from her district to visit the county next year and learn about farming and the origin of their food. Christina Nourie is Illinois Farm Bureau’s northeast legislative coordinator. Her email address is cnourie@ilfb.org.
Tuesday: • Harvey Freese, Freese-Notis Weather • Joyce Fikri, St. Louis dairy nutrition educator • Lori Laughlin, Illinois Farm Bureau’s director of issue management and multi-media Wednesday: • Dale Durchholz, AgriVisor • Bob Dinneen, president, Renewable Fuels Association • Jeff Hartz, director of marketing, Wyffels Hybrids Thursday: • Cynthia Haskins, IFB ‘s manager of business development and compliance • Scott Hurd, associate professor, Iowa State University • Dale Hewett, agronomy services manager, Syngenta Friday: • Sara Wyant, AgriPulse publisher • Chuck Spencer, director of governmental affairs, GROWMARK • Alan Jarand, RFD radio director
Page 3 Monday, September 10, 2012 FarmWeek
GOvERNmENT ELECTION 2012
Don’t wait to register to vote BY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek
Unregistered Illinois residents have about four weeks to register to vote in the Nov. 6 election. However, the legislative liaison with the State Board of Elections advised people to take action now. “We greatly encourage people to vote,” Cris Cray told FarmWeek. And, of course, in order to vote, residents need to be registered. Voter turnout traditionally is higher in a general election than in a primary election. And election officials anticipate an even larger turnout this fall given the presidential election, Cray noted. Illinois residents can check
FarmWeekNow.com Go to FarmWeekNow.com to find additional information on registering to vote for the Nov. 6 election.
to see if they are registered either by contacting a local election authority or by going
online to {www.ilfb.org/vote} and clicking “Register to Vote” or “Where to Register” box in the middle of the page. That will take you to the Illinois State Board of Elections page. There you can find your
local election authority or click on “Am I registered to vote” bar and enter your first and last names and ZIP code. The information that surfaces will include the voter’s polling place and the districts in which the voter will be voting. Those not registered to vote have until Oct. 9 to complete standard voter registration. A voter registration form may be downloaded from {www.elections.il.gov} and must be completed and post-
marked by Oct. 9. Voter registration may be completed at a local election authority office. Voters also may contact those authorities with questions
about their current legislative districts. Cray added individuals doing business, such as renewing a driver’s license, at a Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) office also may register to vote; however, that registration option will be offered only as part of regular DMV business.
Voters unable to register by Oct. 9 may register from Oct. 10 through Nov. 3 during grace-period registration at a local election authority office. Those individuals would register to vote and then proceed to vote at that time. As for the nation’s top candidates, the State Board of Elections must wait until it receives the nominees’ official paperwork from their respective political parties before they are listed as candidates, Cray explained. “Most people want to know who the candidates are,” she said, adding the board of elections has received questions about the lack of presidential candidates posted online. State election officials only recently received “official” information about the presidential and vice presidential nominees from the Republican party.
Why should you
VOTE?
‘Policy is made by those who show up. If you don’t show up, you have no voice.’ RON WARFIELD, Gibson City Former Illinois Farm Bureau president
Cray didn’t expect to receive the Democrats’ official presidential and vice presidential nominees until this week after the convention, she added.
RMA issues cover crop provisions
Crop insurance crucial marketing tool — risk specialist
BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
Increasingly, ag markets are influenced by global economic crises, forces at the Fed, and Washington policies often drafted under short-term pressures, stressed an Archer Daniels Midland Co. (ADM) risk management specialist. Crop insurance — and thus the 2012 farm bill — offers farmers a buffer against the imponderables and a key marketing hedge, according to Steve Freed, vice president of research with ADM Investor Services, a company subsidiary that trades futures and helps farmer clients manage risk. The drought has raised serious concerns both for growers who engaged in little forward marketing prior to the late-season drought and livestock producers “risking a dollar to make a dollar” with each grain purchase, Freed said. Major barometers such as USDA supply-and-demand numbers would seem to indicate “prices eventually would have to work higher,” he told FarmWeek. However, Freed notes “a lot of noise” infusing the market, from economic slowdowns across the planet and anticipation of Federal
Reserve actions to “Washington talking about ethanol” — i.e., proposals to reduce 2013 ethanol targets (see page 4). The next six months threaten “probably some of the most volatile markets we’ve ever seen,” underlining the need for federally subsidized production and price insurance, Freed said. The current Revenue Product crop policy triggers payments based on either spring or fall harvest prices. “Because of the big inverses in the market, we’re not encouraging farmers to hedge 2013 crops yet,” Freed said. “But as you get closer to $7 corn and $14 beans, that might be something to look at. “And, this year, crop insurance is so critical. On our farm in Central Illinois, we’re going to have 50-bushel corn. Normally, we have 200-bushel corn. The farmer who farms our farm said, ‘Thank God for crop insurance.’ I want to make sure the farmer gets crop insurance for next year.” As of last Thursday, Country Financial had fielded 6,400 insurance production claims, along with scattered aflatoxin reports. To date, no claims are based solely on aflatoxin.
Meanwhile, USDA’s Risk Management Agency filed special provisions allowing farmers who need feed to plant cover crops on damaged or destroyed acres.
Farmers may hay or graze acreage later this fall or in early spring without impacting insurability of 2013 spring-planted crops, though they may be
required to halt haying or grazing on a certain date. Regional haying/grazing requirements will be determined by Nov. 30.
DIRECTOR DISCUSSION
Sangamon County Farm Bureau President Allen Entwistle, left, and his brother, Menard County Farm Bureau President Terry Entwistle, right, share aflatoxin experiences with Bob Flider, acting Illinois director of agriculture. While visiting the Entwistles last week in Menard County at their invitation, Flider referred to the ag department’s aflatoxin guidance for elevators. He said relatively few reports of aflatoxin have been reported by elevators in the state. The brothers reported they had received inconsistent aflatoxin test results on the same load of corn. (Photo by Mike Orso)
FarmWeek Page 4 Monday, September 10, 2012
biotechnology
RFS2 waiver poses broad economic implications BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
Interests seeking to “strangle the new baby in the crib” — slow development of next-generation biofuels — also risk stifling broad economic development, Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO) Executive Vice President Brent Erickson warns. In fact, Illinois farm and agribusiness interests fear a proposed waiver of 2013 Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS2) ethanol requirements could hurt consumers as well as the very livestock producers the waiver purports to protect. Last week, Erickson joined what he termed “a broad coalition of industries” concerned about the waiver requested by key livestock groups and several governors. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) officials are weighing the impact of a waiver in controlling corn price vs. other possible economic consequences. Biotechnology “is at the heart of advanced biofuels
production,” Erickson argued. While the waiver debate focuses on corn ethanol, he sees federal renewables support as vital to such current projects as algae-based fuel production on a “green crude farm” in New Mexico and a planned 20-million-gallon cellulosic biofuels facility in North Carolina. Continuation of the RFS2 thus is a “top priority” for BIO’s Industrial/Environmental Section and the biofuels support companies it serves, he said. Erickson said biofuels markets represent “not only millions in invested capital, but also hundreds of new employment opportunities.” “More than 5,000 people are already working directly on building demonstration and commercial scale projects for advanced biofuels here in the United States,” he said. “These include high-paying opportunities for a welleducated workforce; jobs in research, engineering, and equipment manufacturing; as well as traditional jobs in
construction, transportation, and agriculture.” Abengoa Bioenergy Executive Vice President Christopher Standlee noted his St. Louis-based company is primed to launch its first U.S.
ethanol waiver could impact production of co-product distillers dried grains “a lot of our cattle folks rely on.” Steve Freed, vice president of research for Archer Daniels Midland Co. Investor
‘Do you make a decision based on higher food and feed prices, or do you make a decision that could cause gasoline prices to go higher at the pump?’
— Steve Freed ADM Investor Services
cellulosic ethanol plant in southwest Kansas. The plant has access to “all the biomass we could wish for,” including corn stover, wheat straw, milo stubble, and prairie grasses, Standlee said. Growth in the advanced biofuels industry “is driven primarily by the Renewable Fuels Standard,” he said. Standlee said corn ethanol demand is essential to development of energy production from “non-food
Committee eyes GMO compensation proposals Compensation for organic farmers allegedly harmed by biotech crops is months away, if it materializes at all, according to a Farm Bureau regulatory specialist. USDA’s Advisory Committee on Biotechnology and 21st Century Agriculture (AC21) supports a compensation process for farmers who can prove economic losses from the presence of genetically engineered organisms in their non-GMO crops. The panel recommended GMO crop growers step up efforts to prevent “genetic drift” in nearby organic crops, but its draft compensation plan would not hold biotech/seed companies responsible for “contamination.” Mischa Popoff, policy adviser with the Chicago-based Heartland Institute, challenged the concept of compensation, arguing “biotechnology does not threaten (producers’) ability to farm their land organically.” Popoff suggested “the urban leaders of the organic movement. . .are stoking irrational fear, not the (organic) farmers.” However, American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) regulatory specialist Kevin Richards emphasizes AC21’s draft recommendations are precisely that — merely a first step toward USDA implementation of compensation procedures. AFBF Vice President Barry Bashue sits on the advisory committee, which was charged last summer with investigating a possible compensation “mechanism.” That unprecedented directive “took us aback,” but USDA posted data addressing all sides of the issue and may lean more toward a
sources” — an effort Erickson sees some energy industry critics of the RFS2 seeking to halt. The RFS2 helps provide motorists a significant fuel price buffer, according to Illi-
crop insurance-style compensation process, if any process is deemed necessary, Richards said. “But it’s a very diverse committee,” he told FarmWeek. “It represents the whole range of ag interests, from organic, niche ag interests, and even activist interests to production ag and biotech companies. “They’ve done a really good job of having a pretty constructive, civil discussion about (GMO/non-GMO) co-existence in general. The challenge has been that there’s really no evidence or data to suggest that a compensation mechanism would even be necessary, leaving aside the potentially questionable policy justifications for it.” AC21 is expected to fine-tune recommendations for a final vote in October. If USDA moves on proposals, farmers and others would have the opportunity to provide comments or concerns prior to adoption of a final rule. Richards noted a small “fringe” faction has spearheaded a move toward more extreme alternatives such as creation of a grower indemnity fund fed by biotech companies, a moratorium on GMO crops, or mandatory practices for GMO crop producers. On the positive side, AC21 discussion has refocused awareness of GMO stewardship and “neighborly co-existence” between conventional and organic growers, Richards said. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency already enforces insect refuge management/buffer planting requirements for Bt corn production. — Martin Ross
nois Corn Growers Association analyst Dave Loos. Loos noted there was “an 80-cent savings” between ethanol and gasoline in the Chicago market last week. EPA must carefully consider whether an RFS2 waiver actually might spur livestock feed disruptions, Illinois Farm Bureau Government Affairs Director Mark Gebhards added. Noting drought-related feed shortages, Gebhards suggested an
Services, acknowledges the complexities of the waiver issue. EPA’s decision likely will prove “really critical” in terms of economic impact, whichever way it goes, he said. “Do you make a decision based on higher food and feed prices, or do you make a decision that could cause gasoline prices to go higher at the pump?” Freed posed during a recent FarmWeek interview.
Author’s surprise biggest surprise in Stanford study of organic merits The biggest surprise in a new study of organic vs. conventionally produced foods may be the author’s own surprise. A new Stanford University report, published in last week’s issue of the Annals of Internal Medicine, concluded organically labeled produce on average is no more nutritious than conventionally produced and generally cheaper fruits and vegetables. Nor were organic products any less likely to be contaminated by harmful bacteria such as E. coli, the study concluded. Neither does so-called “organic” meat offer obvious health advantages, the study concluded. Dena Bravata, Stanford’s Center for Health Policy affiliate and senior author of the paper, admitted she expected to uncover data “that would support the superiority of organics over conventional food.” The doctor, who initiated the analysis to address patient questions about organics, said she was “absolutely surprised” by her findings. As a self-funded investigation with no apparent outside bias, American Farm Bureau Federation biotech/regulatory specialist Kevin Richards said he sees the study as a “really objective, really credible source.” “It’s presented as if the findings are a surprise,” Richards told FarmWeek. “None of it’s really a surprise. There’s no nutritional difference. There’s some negligible difference in pesticide residues, which you would expect, but conventional crops fall below safety thresholds. It’s exactly what you’d expect a meta-analysis of the data to find.” The organic market continues to grow — sales were up 12 percent over the past year to $12.4 billion, according to the Organic Trade Association. Stanford scientists consulted 17 human studies and 223 evaluations of nutrient and “contaminant” (pesticide or antibiotic) levels in milk, grains, produce, pork, beef, and chicken. They determined differences between organic and conventionally raised products were relatively minor. Two of the studies reported significantly lower urinary pesticide levels among children who ate largely organic vs. conventional foods. However, studies of adult blood serum, urine, breast milk, and semen revealed no “clinically meaningful” differences, the Stanford analysis stated. Bravata and company found bacterial contamination of retail chicken and pork unrelated to production method. But they suggested potential bacterial resistance to some antibiotics is higher in conventional vs. organic chicken and pork. — Martin Ross
Page 5 Monday, September 10, 2012 FarmWeek
EducatioN
Ag economy, job placement fuel growth of ISU ag students A strong ag economy compared to weak economic recovIllinois State University’s ery in other sectors caused (ISU) record in placing 2012 some students to study the agriculture graduates speaks agricultural equivalent in their volumes. career field, according to Nearly 100 percent of the Rhykerd. grads willing to relocate found For example: Many students jobs, said Rob Rhykerd, head are studying agriculture busiof ISU’s agriculture departness instead of some other ment. field of business. “AgriculAnother facture has done tor working in better than the ag departother ecoment’s favor is its ‘Agriculture has redesigned curnomic sectors. There done better than riculum spurred are very good a period of other economic by jobs for our lower enrollsectors. There are ment, according graduates,” Rhykerd said. very good jobs for to Rhykerd. Ag This fall, faculty and stuour graduates.’ the Normal dents also activeuniversity ly recruited new experienced students, he — Rob Rhykerd 10 percent added. Illinois State University growth in stuThis fall, the agriculture department dents majornumber of ag ing in agriculstudents transture. ferring from Those 399 students are community colleges vastly outedging closer to the university’s numbered their freshmen record of 425 ag students. Ag counterparts. Rhykerd estimatstudent enrolled has nearly ed two-thirds of his new studoubled since 2004. dents are transfer students. Student enrollment in agriThe strongest areas of culture is solid compared to study are agriculture business, overall ISU enrollment, which animal science, and pre-veteriwas down slightly. nary medicine. Rhykerd credited increased Animal science is attractstudent interest to the booming more non-traditional stuing agricultural economy. dents from Chicago and othBY KAY SHIPMAN FarmWeek
Rob Rhykerd, left, head of Illinois State University’s agriculture departments, discusses class schedules with Pete Lammers, a new animal science faculty member, and Carly Holcomb, graduate student in ag education and leadership. Rhykerd credits the strong agricultural economy and student recruitment for the 10 percent jump in ag student enrollment this fall. (Photo by Kay Shipman)
ers who don’t have farm backgrounds, Rhykerd said. “They can get experience (working with livestock) on
the ISU farm,” he said. Rhykerd also has seen enrollment increases in the department’s agriculture edu-
cation and leadership program. Graduate student Carly Holcomb of Mount Pulaski is one of those students. Holcomb said she is pursuing a graduate degree for additional experience, especially in communication classes. Her goal is to help educate the public about agriculture and “debunk myths,” she said.
U of I program to help farmers turn over new leaf Plant a seed, grow a new specialty grower. Rick Weinzierl, University of Illinois crop sciences professor, said he hopes “to cultivate a new generation” of fruit and vegetable growers through training and education. Recently, Weinzierl and a U of I team received $632,000 through USDA’s Beginning Farmer and Rancher Development Program. Starting in December, the U of I will launch a threeyear program in Northern, Central, and Southern Illinois.
FarmWeekNow.com For more information about the University of Illinois’ new specialty grower program, go to FarmWeekNow.com.
In a one-year course, students will meet for monthly day-long sessions of classroom work and hands-on demonstrations. Farmers who have farmed
for 10 or fewer years comprise the target audience. However, the program also is open to corn and soybean farmers interested in diversifying with fruits and vegetables, according to Weinzierl. “We will cover key ideas, provide info about the most important first steps, and guide participants to the best resources — some of which we’ll need to develop — for their continued education,” Weinzierl told FarmWeek. “It’s meant to be a jumpstart to beginning the process of learning to grow fruits and vegetables so new growers have a better chance of weathering the first few years and becoming successful,” he continued. The training will be linked with U of I farm research centers in St. Charles, Urbana, and Dixon Springs. Weinzierl envisioned participants being able to try out ideas either at one of the research farms or on other land, but he admitted the program’s ability to provide access to land and expert
supervision will be limited. A parallel training/education program geared to seasonal workers will be offered through the Illinois Migrant Council. The sessions will cover a variety of topics, and instructors will do their best to prepare students for the unexpected, according to Weinzierl. Students will learn to monitor soil moisture and about optimal irrigation methods. They will study pest monitoring and integrated pest management. They also will develop business plans that cover fluctuating market prices as well as other factors. Finances and land availability also will be discussed. Weinzierl hopes to link participants with interested landowners by working with the Land Connection, an educational nonprofit entity. Information about the program and applications are available online at {www.newillinoisfarmers.org /new_generation_app.php}
or by calling Weinzierl at 217244-2126 or emailing him at
weinzier@illinois.edu. — Kay Shipman
FarmWeek Page 6 Monday, September 10, 2012
CROPWATCHERS Bernie Walsh, Durand, Winnebago County: We missed out on the heavy rains from Hurricane Isaac and received only about 0.15 of an inch the weekend of Sept. 1 and 2. We had a nice rain on Tuesday night with a little more than 0.5 of an inch, and it was raining lightly Friday morning. We already have had harvest delays because of the rain, but I don’t think anyone is complaining about all this beneficial rain to recharge the topsoil and subsoil. It will take a lot. I think it is too early to put a number on the yields from the initial harvest that began this past week. Suffice to say, the yields are all over the board. Maybe we can get a better handle on it by this week.
Ron Moore, Roseville, Warren County: We received 3 inches of rain from the remnants of Hurricane Isaac. That makes a total of 4.6 inches in the last two weeks. That is more rain than we had from May 15 to Aug. 15. Corn harvest is now fully under way. The moisture is in the high teens to low 20s, and the stalks are still green in some places. Yields are still highly variable, from little to nothing to only 30 percent below normal production. Farm averages will be well below the federal crop insurance levels on many farms. Bean harvest is still two weeks away with only a few fields turning yellow. I mowed and baled a hay field last week. The drought reduced the number of bales to less than half of normal.
Leroy Getz, Savanna, Carroll County: Hurricane Isaac failed to deliver a drop of rain to our area. We received 0.6 of an inch of rain Wednesday, and it was raining here Friday morning. A few combines have started. We checked some corn moisture and were surprised it was at 19 to 20 percent. Be safe. Accidents happen. Spending four hours in the emergency room was not in my plan last Friday (Aug. 31). All is well.
Mark Kerber, Chatsworth, Livingston County: Harvest has started in our area. Farmers are anxious to see how bad this corn really is. Yields are running from 8 to 80 bushels per acre. Many are in the 25 to 50 range. Our goal this year is to have yields higher than the moisture levels. Combines are turning black with corn smut after just a couple of rounds. Soybeans are turning but will need a few more days to ripen. Our elevator is testing every load for aflatoxin and so far, none has showed up that is above the 20 parts per billion threshold. Markets are not breaking out to the upside or the downside yet. Producers are hoping for higher prices in October when the federal crop insurance fall price is determined.
Ryan Frieders, Waterman, DeKalb County: I haven’t figured out this year’s weather pattern. As I write this Friday morning, we are receiving a perfect, gentle rain with an occasional burst of thunder. We received 1 inch of rain last week. Temperatures over the holiday were extremely high, along with the humidity. The forecast is for cooler temperatures for the next couple days. Right now, everyone is going to the Sandwich Fair to celebrate the season and have one last hurrah before fall. A few neighbors have started to harvest corn with moisture levels near 30 percent. Soybean fields also are close to harvest-ready. Soon we will be in full harvest mode. Larry Hummel, Dixon, Lee County: Hurricane Isaac couldn’t muster enough energy to reach Northern Illinois with some much-needed rain. Since then, two old-fashioned storm fronts have moved down from the north. Only 0.5 of an inch in the first event and it rained Friday. Definitely not a droughtbreaker, but it is a start for next year’s crops. Only a field or two of corn has been harvested in this neck of the woods, but that should change this coming week. Even if the corn is on the wet side, it would be good to get it out of the field before stalks and ear shanks deteriorate any further. Joe Zumwalt, Warsaw, Hancock County: Harvest continues at a rapid pace. While Hurricane Isaac brought us some much-needed rain, which will greatly benefit the soybeans, it only slowed corn harvest by a day or two. Pastures and hay ground are coming back to life. Corn yields range from 0 to 170 bushels per acre field averages. Moistures range from 15 to 24 percent and the worst, or most stressed, corn has been testing positive for aflatoxin. The one thing I haven’t seen much of while out in the fields is wildlife. The drought certainly had an effect on us all. Ken Reinhardt, Seaton, Mercer County: Rain as of this writing Friday morning amounted to 0.7 of an inch. The weather alarm went off twice in the night for quarter-inch or larger hail in the county, but I haven’t heard any reports yet. More corn has been harvested — mostly that planted the first week of April. There are some very good yields on first-year corn. Continuous corn is going to take a hit this year. Mid-Group II beans are turning yellow. Jacob Streitmatter, Princeville, Peoria County: More rain showers came Labor Day weekend with totals of just a little more than 1 inch to 5-plus inches. All the rain soaked into the huge cracks. Every day, a few more combines start rolling. I think it is safe to say that for most of us, the yields are disappointing. A lot of soybeans are starting to ripen.
Ron Haase, Gilman, Iroquois County: Corn harvest continues at a slow pace. I heard yields ranging from less than 1 bushel per acre up to 150 bpa. Most of the corn harvested so far was below 100 bpa. Some fields are being harvested before more ears drop to the ground or more stalks fall over. We had showers on Sept. 1 and 2, and our farms received a range of 1.6 to 1.9 inches. Corn development ranges from the R5 (dent) growth stage and the milk line 20 percent of the way down the kernel on up to the corn being harvested. Soybean fields are at the R6 (full seed) or R7 (beginning maturity) growth stage. The local closing bids for Sept. 6 were: nearby corn, $8.11; fall 2013 corn, $6.28; nearby soybeans, $17.50; new-crop soybeans, $17.39; fall 2013 soybeans, $13.49. We had to the get the lawnmower out again. Our lawn is green for the first time since April. Brian Schaumburg, Chenoa, McLean County: Harvest started at our place last week with 25-30 percent corn running from 50 to 80 bpa, as expected. Monitor ranged from 0-220. No aflatoxin or test weight problems so far. Soybeans benefited by 5 to 7 bpa from another 4 to 5 inches of rain, thanks to Isaac. In the last six weeks, more than 15 inches of rain has fallen, but creeks are still dry, and no tile lines are running. Corn, $7.98; January, $8.03 fall 2013, $6.35; soybeans, $17.52 fall, $17.27; fall 2013, $13.43; wheat, $8.14. Steve Ayers, Champaign, Champaign County: Labor Day weekend proved it can rain, so we are on our long slog back to recharge the prairie soil. Official rainfall for Champaign was 3.28 inches, while Dewey received 5.4 and Sidney won the prize with 5.5 inches. The rainfall slowed harvest, but no one was complaining. Harvest-o-meter for our little corner of the world is 6 percent. Yields ranging from disappointment (40) to elation (180) and moisture from the upper teens to mid20s. We will start this week on corn, and our beans are just now turning yellow. We were expecting up to 1 inch of rain Friday. Wilfred Dittmer, Quincy, Adams County: Thanks to Hurricane Isaac, we received some much-needed rainfall. Our gauge registered 4.8 inches total for the week. Grass turned green along with the weeds and dandelions, and the mowers are busy once again. It is so good not have the grass crunch when you walk on it. Some combines are back in the fields again but yields are the same — very poor.
Carrie Winkelmann, Tallula, Menard County: We received 4.5 inches of rain Labor Day weekend from Isaac. This only kept us out of the field for four days. I think the rain helped some of our beans, but the stalk quality for corn was poor before the rain and is worse now. We still haven’t seen any aflatoxin, and I have heard only minimal reports around the county. Tom Ritter, Blue Mound, Macon County: The moisture continues to fall. Labor Day weekend produced 5.1 inches of rain. Needless to say, the fields turned a little soft, but there really was no standing water. On Wednesday, we received another 0.8 of an inch in a morning shower, which again slowed harvest. Farmers started up again late Wednesday. Yields are not improving at all and are all over the board. There’s still much corn above 20 percent moisture. Yields are from 20 to 160 bushels, but the majority in our immediate Blue Mound area is in the 100 to 140 range. Soybeans may be still benefiting some from this moisture. The majority of the mid-III beans are 2.5 to 3 weeks away from harvest. I estimate corn harvest at this point is about 60 percent complete. Todd Easton, Charleston, Coles County: Corn harvesters are trying to continue their work but keep getting stopped by rain. First, we had Isaac bring us more than 2 inches of rain, then surprise rain events hit us on Tuesday and Wednesday leaving up to 1.5 inches in places and less than half of that in others. In spite of this interesting weather, corn harvest is approaching 50 percent done in this area. As more and more fields get cleared, yields stay consistently terrible. As soybean fields turn from green to yellow, we hope we have something to put in the many empty bins at home. Guess we will know in a couple of weeks. Jimmy Ayers, New City, Sangamon County: Hurricane Isaac dumped a little more than 4 inches of rain on our place. It ranged anywhere from 3.5 to 7 inches elsewhere. We received another 0.2 of an inch on Wednesday. A little bit of shelling took place last week. Some of the early beans are turning. I think the later beans will receive some benefit from this rain. Prices are still on the roller coaster. Several different types of mold are attacking the corn ears. You need to be checking your fields. Some shanks are having trouble holding onto the ear. Yields are all over the board and really depend on whether you had rain. Some of the lakes have been replenished by the rains. I talked to one of the tile guys and apparently we are not getting water down much more than a foot at this point. David Schaal, St. Peter, Fayette County: Where was Isaac two months ago? It dropped 4 to 7 inches throughout the county over the holiday weekend. Then again on Wednesday, a storm came across with rain that varied from 0.5 of an inch up to 2 inches. Not a lot of harvest activity in the last week. If the weather settles after this weekend, corn shelling will resume. Lawnmowers came out of hibernation — I mowed more in the past two weeks than I did all summer. Some of the early Group III soybeans are beginning to turn, but most are still pretty green. Jeff Guilander, Jerseyville, Jersey County: Another week and we are still keeping the dryers burning. I don’t know if it is the 3-plus inches of rain, the ringyour-shirt-out humidity, or the date on the calendar, but this corn will not cooperate. Corn is stuck around 20 percent moisture regardless of maturity with stalks looking worse every day. This crop definitely is not in the bin yet. Maturity on the early beans has slowed also, so I think it will take another couple of weeks to get a good read on what to expect there.
Page 7 Monday, September 10, 2012 FarmWeek
CROPWATCHERS Dan Meinhart, Montrose, Jasper County: We had a very wet, hot, humid week. Rainfall was from 4 to 6 inches, and in some places more. Very little field activity took place. The majority of the cornfields have been or will be disked under. Cornfields that have been harvested have been running about 5 bpa. Isolated fields have yielded up to 40. A few loads of corn have been showing up at elevators with aflatoxin. The recent rains may help some of the later-planted and longer-season soybeans. Cooler and drier conditions are expected for this week. Dave Hankammer, Millstadt, St. Clair County: Since Aug. 26, my rain gauge has collected 5.6 inches of rain. On Aug. 31, a storm from Hurricane Isaac greeted our returning flight from the GROWMARK annual meeting in Chicago, leaving 2.5 inches of water in the gauge. Several pop-up afternoon showers during the week left additional rainfall. Farmers are starting to harvest their earliest-planted corn. We harvested some last week and quickly learned we will have to practice patience. Although we are blessed with two nearby labs certified to test for aflatoxin, demand for tests is high and report of the results is slow, making grain handling a challenge. With the recent rains, soybean plants have gained additional height, and the pods are filling out. I also have observed several fields where the leaves are changing from green to yellow, indicating that bean harvest will be here in a few weeks. Local grain bids are: corn, $7.58; soybeans, $17.18; wheat, $8.37.
Dean Shields, Murphysboro, Jackson County: We didn’t have any rain during the work week, but last weekend (Sept. 1-2), a rain of 2.5 inches or so fell in many places. We were getting more rain Friday. A few more farmers have started picking corn, and the yields are still not very good. Corn that I have picked so far has been from 20-40 bpa range. The rain will help the beans — right now they are very green and putting on good pods, so we are hoping they will turn out better. I believe this will be the year that the beans out-yield the corn. Randy Anderson, Galatia, Saline County: Cornfields keep disappearing, but it doesn’t take long to run through a field at 8 mph with a 30-foot head. The hurricane brought the rain that that we have needed for the past three months, dumping around 4 to 5 inches on us. We went from a dust bowl to almost muddy. We were hoping to get started cutting beans Friday. The one thing I will say this week: No matter how bad it is, or how frustrated you get, stop a minute to say thank you, Lord, for this day.
Kevin Raber, Browns, Wabash County: Rainfall totals of close to 4 inches fell last week. Very little of it ran off. Corn harvest was slowed by the moisture, but by Thursday, combines were running again. There are some beans getting close to harvest. The late rains should help the later maturities and the doublecrop beans. Ken Taake, Ullin, Pulaski County: The remnants of Hurricane Isaac left 3 to 4 inches of rain in our area Labor Day weekend. Then we had a light shower Wednesday morning, so Thursday was the only day that we managed to be in the cornfield. We had another 0.5 of an inch shower Thursday night with more expected Friday night. Harvest is not going as quickly as it was at one time. At least, the grass in the yards is really greening up. We may have to mow the yard again — something that hasn’t happened much in the past few months. Corn yields remain low — running from the low teens up to the 70s. Moistures are running all the way from 15 percent up to the low 20s. Quite a few soybeans are losing their leaves. There have been some beans cut, but I haven’t heard about yields so far. Hopefully, I will know more about that this week.
Reports received Friday morning. Expanded crop and weather information available at FarmWeekNow.com
Crop survey, early harvesters find disappointing yields crop yields won’t necessarily translate to higher crop prices, though. “We expect almost all of the drop in production to be offset by (weaker)
BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
The bar wasn’t set very high for U.S. crop production this season. But it may need to be lowered more based on the results of Allendale Inc.’s 23rd annual crop survey and early harvest results. Allendale of McHenry last week projected national yields this season will average just 118.2 bushels per acre for corn and 34.9 bushels per acre for beans, according to its sur vey of far mer s in 32 states cond u c t e d b e t w e e n A u g. 2 0 and 31. If the yield estimates are realized, Allendale projected crop production this year would total just 10.32 billion bushels for corn and 2.6 billion bushels for beans. “(Crop) losses were surprisingly even across the board,” said Rich Nelson, Allendale chief strategist. “The numbers were rough from Indiana to Nebraska.” USDA last month projected average yields of 123.4 bushels for corn and 36.1 bushels for beans, with production totals estimated at 10.78 billion bushels for corn (the lowest since 1995) and 2.69 billion bushels for beans (the lowest since 2003). T he Ag De par tment on Wednesday will update its crop production estimates in its monthly crop report. Yield estimates varied wildly in the Allendale survey with production prospects tied almost
demand,” Nelson said. Allendale projected USDA this week will lower ending corn stocks from 650 million bushels to 623 million bushels.
Find us at... These ears of corn, pulled last week from a field between Bement and Milmine in Piatt County, were among the worst found during a crop tour conducted by Topflight Grain Cooperative. The average of all fields surveyed during the tour was 122 bushels per acre; this field obviously will make much less. (Photo by Steve Ayers, Champaign County Cropwatcher)
exclusively to rainfall patterns — or lack thereof — from June through early August. Yield estimates from the 32 states ranged from 0 to 250 bushels per acre for corn and from 0 to 80 bushels per acre for beans. “Within a 40-mile radius (in Central Illinois), corn yields ranged from 40 to 170 bushels per acre,” Nelson said. Early har vest results have confir med extreme yield variability and a large number of disappointing returns. “We are more than half done (with cor n har vest)” Fa r m We e k C r o p w a t c h e r Ken Taake of Pulaski County said prior to heavy rains from the remnants of
H u r r i c a n e I s a a c. “ Y i e l d s continue to be just terrible. I ’ ve n e ve r h a d y i e l d s t h i s low.” Corn harvest in Illinois as of the first of last week was 12 percent complete compared to the five-year average of 2 percent. Forty-one percent of soybeans were turning yellow last week compared to the average of 23 percent. David Voigt of Madison County last month harvested a field of corn that averaged about 70 bushels per acre, which was less than half of the field’s average of 185 bushels per acre. “ I t ’s w o r s e t h a n I t h o u g h t ,” h e s a i d . “ T h e stalk quality is not ver y good.” The pessimistic view of
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FarmWeek Page 8 Monday, September 10, 2012
the drought
Irrigation system helps farmer salvage crops BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Don Knoblett, who started farming in the early 1960s, learned a long time ago that you can’t always count on Mother Nature to provide adequate rainfall for a crop. The need for steady moisture is even greater for Knoblett and others who farm lighter soils along rivers in Southern Illinois, where it’s often said a drought is always just two weeks away due to the soil’s inability to hold water. “In 1983, I was farming with my father (Floyd) and brother (Leonard) and we had a bad drought,” Knoblett said. “We (subsequently) bought our first irrigator in 1984.” The irrigator turned out to be such a good investment for Knoblett, who lives in Palestine (Crawford County) near the Wabash River, that he and his son (Douglas) now maintain 18 irrigators on their farm. All are center-pivot systems.
The irrigation system has allowed Knoblett to branch out and grow everything from green beans and cucumbers to sweet corn and pumpkins. He also grows the typical rotation of corn and soybeans. This year, Knoblett seized an opportunity to grow seed corn. And the irrigation system once again paid off. “If we didn’t have the irrigation system, we wouldn’t have anything,” Knoblett said. “Most of our fields are expected to achieve 40 to 60 percent of expected yields.” Knoblett said a rain of four-tenths of an inch last week was the most significant rainfall event on his farm since May. Overall, Knoblett irrigates about 850 acres on his farm. He and his brother and their late father previously operated three cattle operations and three farrow-tofinish hog operations. More recently, Knoblett has had better luck growing corn and soybeans and seeking out specialty crop con-
Don Knoblett adjusts the settings on one of the 18 center-pivot irrigation systems on his farm near Palestine in Crawford County. Knoblett, who farms along the Wabash River, purchased his first irrigation system in 1984 after suffering considerable crop damage from the 1983 drought. This year, irrigation saved a portion of his corn and bean crops. The system has allowed him to branch out into specialty crop production as well. (Photo by Ken Kashian)
tracts. He has been a member of the Illinois Specialty Growers Association for nearly 20 years. Next year, he is consider-
ing growing potatoes among his various other crops. “It (growing specialty crops) just spreads your risk and gives you a variety of
income at different times of the year,” said Knoblett, who noted he typically can get two crops of cucumbers and green beans in a single season.
USDA projects new record in value of U.S. ag exports The outlook for U.S. ag exports generally is positive, despite major crop production issues this year caused by the drought. USDA last month forecast U.S. ag exports will reach a record-high value of $143.5 billion in fiscal year 2013 compared to the estimate of $136.5 billion for the 2012 fiscal year. The favorable outlook is due in part to stronger economies in some countries compared to the U.S., favorable exchange rates, and record-high prices for some commodities, according to Ron Plain, University of Missouri ag economist. “The economy in the rest of the world is doing better than our economy, so it’s getting easier to outbid the U.S. (for ag commodities),” Plain told FarmWeek.
“In particular, some of our major customers, such as Canada, Mexico, and the Pacific Rim (nations) are doing fairly well (economically),” he continued. “So I expect exports will remain strong.” USDA predicted grain and feed exports for 2013 would total a record-high $39 billion, up $4.4 billion from the 2012 estimate. The jump in grain and feed exports is due in part to higher wheat volume and value, record-high soy prices, and higher corn values. U.S. wheat exports were projected to increase by $3.2 billion in 2013 while sales of feeds and fodders were projected to increase $700 million, due in large part to exports of distillers’ grains to China. However, high prices and tight supplies were projected to reduce the volume of corn exports in 2013 by about 215 million bushels. Soybean meal and soy oil exports also were projected to decline due to lower production, reduced crush, and tight stocks. “Up until mid-June we expected a record corn crop, a lot of feed, and declining prices,” Plain said. “Things changed very rapidly. The reality is a very dry summer and short crop production will lead to less (crop and) livestock production.” The expected decrease in livestock production was projected to lead to a $200 million decline in livestock, poultry,
and dairy exports in 2013. Plain believes the crop markets will have to ration demand among the various end-users, including livestock feeders, foreign buyers, and the ethanol industry. “Somebody has got to be short on supply,” he added. “The question is who will cut back (on grain and oilseed usage) first.” USDA projected the dollar will remain relatively weak and, combined with low interest rates, will continue to provide inexpensive credit to finance trade in 2013. — Daniel Grant
Page 9 Monday, September 10, 2012 FarmWeek
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FarmWeek Page 10 Monday, September 10, 2012
innovations
Specialized oils healthy for humans and machinery BY MARTIN ROSS FarmWeek
A specialty soybean developed as a heart-healthy answer to trans fat concerns shows promise in keeping non-human machinery pumping more smoothly, as well. Monsanto developed Vistive low-linoleic soybeans to counter loss of market share caused by labeling of and growing manufacturer aversion to trans fats in foods. Contract growers have
been seeing a roughly 50- to 60-cent-per-bushel premium for raising the “low-lin” beans, which are processed into cooking and frying oils. Monsanto plans further biotech work to generate added “modifed oils” with specific end-user benefits, according to biochemist Roy Fuchs, the company’s global oilseeds technology lead. Vistive beans boast a 5 percent lower linoleic acid content, reducing the need for
hydrogenation, a chemical process that boosts trans fats in soy oil. That also improves oil stability: Fuchs reported its new Vistive Gold oil, produced from GMO beans, works “extremely well” as a biodegradable lubricant, opening the door to use in motor oils and greases. “We recently completed our regulatory processes in the U.S. and Canada so we can start selling the oil (for food use) while obtaining global
approvals,” he told FarmWeek. “The approvals we get in the U.S. cover industrial uses. Industries have different specifications for different oils, but those aren’t related to using biotechnology. “The major oil companies are very excited about having a natural, biodegradable (lubrication) source. Imagine oil applications for the Navy, where you could offer something in water that’s biodegradable. That’s a really new opportunity for soybean growers to contribute in areas they could not even have imagined five or 10 years ago.” Monsanto is canvassing growers of original non-GMO Vistive beans about the possi-
bility of raising Vistive Gold beans. Vistive contracts to date have been issued in irrigated areas, and Fuchs anticipates adequate fall supplies of the specialty bean. Monsanto, meanwhile, continues to develop biotech beans that generate Omega-3 oils similar to the hearthealthy compounds found in less stable fish oils ill-suited to many food uses. That would offer a smaller acreage potential for growers than Vistive, initially across more northern states. “Where it’s necessary, we’ll be commercializing these products across the (soybean) maturity zones,” Fuchs indicated, however.
Dual use: Residues offer income buffers
Pioneer’s Gina Overstreet offers Oskaloosa, Iowa, farmer David Ornduff a cup of popcorn popped using a zero-trans fat oil made from the company’s high-oleic Plenish soybeans. Companies such as Pioneer and Monsanto continue to develop healthier soy oils in an effort to retain grower market share in the food/ingredients industry. (Photo by Martin Ross)
Extension sets pasture drought clinic
University of Illinois Extension will host a free pasture drought clinic from 1 to 6 p.m. Sept. 25 in the Farm Credit Services building, Mt. Vernon. Seating is limited and advance registration is encouraged. Experts from the Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation of
Ardmore, Okla.; Dairyland; USDA; and Extension will discuss livestock farmers’ specific drought needs. Topics will include soil moisture trends, pasture management after a drought, drought strategies for livestock nutrition, alfalfa and hay management strategies for 2012 and 2013, and an economic outlook. USDA representatives will discuss livestock and pasture,
and forage insurance and the effects of cover crops on crop insurance. Farmers may speak with industry experts about products and management strategies as well as share successes, challenges, and ideas with each other. For more information or to register, contact Teresa Steckler with U of I Extension at 618695-4917 or email her at tsteckle@illinois.edu.
Many Illinois corn growers will come up seriously short at the elevator this fall. But with proper cultivation, conservation, and utilization, what remains in the field someday could provide a crucial drought-year revenue buffer. That’s according to Monsanto biofuels product manager Steve Peterson, whose research into potential use of corn stover as an ethanol feedstock has uncovered the unexpected benefits of field residues in feeding regimens. A new University of Nebraska (U of N) report confirms Peterson’s conclusion that judiciously harvested stover can provide dual benefits in livestock nutrition as well as in possible ethanol conversion. According to the U of N study, a pound of alkaline-treated stover can replace a half-pound of corn and a half-pound of hay. That’s significant during a drought that has severely impacted cow-calf herds with little or no available pasture and is expected to boost grain prices for cattle feeders and dairy producers feeding heifers and dry cows. “Treated corn stover is becoming a real mainstay for some of these (livestock producers),” Peterson told FarmWeek. “Hopefully, it will enable them to get through until we have a better harvest next year. “As we see more and more acres of corn-on-corn, the removal of a sustainable amount of stover actually can be yield-beneficial. “As we consider pathogens, things like Goss’s wilt — everything that overwinters in stover — we lower the chances of potential disease or infection if we remove a portion of that stover.” The scientist anticipates potentially solid demand and thus economically justifiable per-ton prices for harvested stover, particularly in a season such as this. Amid limited hay availability, “even poor-quality hay is bringing extremely high prices,” Peterson pointed out. For the livestock producer, he argues treated stover can compete economically with grain or hay as a part of rations but not all of the ration. Some cow-calf operations have “very effectively” adopted a 60 percent stover inclusion rate, Peterson said. Livestock residue benefits have fueled university interest in previously biofuels-oriented research by companies including Monsanto, Archer Daniels Midland, and Deere and Co. and emerging cellulosic ethanol ventures. At the same time, stover potential is driving new innovations across the industry, from New Holland’s Cornrower, a corn head attachment adapted for stover collection, to Mississippi Lime’s StoverCal, a feed grade calcium hydroxide treatment for stover and wheat straw. “We’re pleasantly surprised by what the economics are driving,” Peterson said. — Martin Ross
Page 11 Monday, September 10, 2012 FarmWeek
prODucTiOn
Equipment upgrades can boost farm productivity BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
There’s a lot more to buying a tractor these days than simply kicking the tires and inquiring about horsepower. Equipment manufacturers continue to provide more upgrades in their lines that improve operator comfort, increase efficiency, and boost farm productivity. Many of the new equipment lines and latest technology innovations were displayed last month at the Farm Progress Show in Boone, Iowa. “We’ve always built tractors and combines,” said Barry Nelson, manager of media relations for the ag and turf division of John Deere, a company that dates back to the 1830s when John Deere developed the steel walking plow. “With new technology, what we can put on those (tractors and combines) can make you more efficient,” Nelson said. And improving machine efficiency and farm productivity is vital as equipment manufacturers deal with more stringent emission standards,
they’re managing fleets of equipment,” Nelson said. “(JD Link telematics) allows you to look at every machine and provide better management overall.” Telematics also allows farmers to optimize machinery use and improve their management of inputs, according to Gary Wojcik, marketing manager of high-horsepower tractors for New Holland. New Holland at the show displayed its flagship T8 Series tractor that features AutoCommand continuously variable transmission (CVT). New Holland tractors also contain features on all cabs designed to improve operator comfort and productivity. The CVT aids in improving the machines’ fuel efficiency. Meanwhile, Case IH’s advanced twin-row seeding technology is available for 2013. Twin-row seeding allows farmers to increase plant populations without changing cropping practices. “Twin-row crop production is increasing in popularity due to the potential yield advantages by narrowing corn rows,” said Bill Hoeg, Case IH planter
‘With new technology, what we can put on those (tractors and combines) can make you more efficient.’ — Barry Nelson Manager of media relations, John Deere ag and turf division
tighter farm margins, and growing demand for commodities (the world population is projected to grow from 7 billion to 9 billion people by 2050). One way manufacturers improve farm efficiency and output is through telematics. Telematics is technology that uses electronic sensors on equipment to capture data directly from a field and transfer it to the Internet. “As farmers get bigger,
DATEBOOK
sales and marketing manager in North America. “Essentially, you change your planter and everything else remains the same as it was in 30-inch, 36-inch, 38-inch, or 40-inch rows.” Geringhoff unveiled a future concept Independence corn header at the show that is designed to improve efficiency and provide flexibility for farmers. The header features row independent corn harvest technology that uses rotating stars that grab plant material and direct it into the header where a chopping system basi-
Sept. 12 Beef roundtable discussion, 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Elizabeth Community Building. Sept. 25 Pasture drought clinic, 1 to 6 p.m., Farm Credit Services building, Mt. Vernon. Advance registration encouraged. Call 618-695-4917 or email tsteckle@illinois.edu. Sept. 26 Meet the Buyers event, University of Illinois Extension office, Springfield. Registration deadline Sept. 24. Call 217-7535200.
Jac Knoop, right, president of Advanced Marketing Solutions, discusses the features of a Geringhoff Independence corn header with a Farm Progress Show attendee. The header, unveiled at the show, features rotating stars that pull crop material into the header and a chopping system that mows down the crop. The concept header is scheduled to be available for commercial use in the U.S. by 2015. (Photo by Daniel Grant)
cally mows down the entire crop. “The header is not bound to a certain row spacing (or brand of combine),” said Jac Knoop, president of Advanced
Marketing Solutions. “It mows the whole crop off at the ground.” The combine can follow the rows or move across them. The gear boxes and row
units are identical to current headers, Knoop noted. The Independence header is scheduled to be introduced for commercial use in the U.S. by 2015.
FarmWeek Page 12 Monday, September 10, 2012
fb in action
Newly ‘adopted’ state lawmaker hosts DeWitt County FB BY CHRISTINA NOURIE
State Rep. Kelly Cassidy (D-Chicago), who recently joined the Illinois Farm Bureau Adopt a legislator program, recently hosted farmers from the DeWitt County Farm Bureau for a tour of her district. She represents portions of the Rogers Park and Edgewater communities on the north side of Chicago. The county Farm Bureau previously adopted Representative Cassidy’s predecessor, Harry Osterman, who is now a Chicago alderman. After meeting at Cassidy’s district office, the group went to Vedgewater Community Garden located on a vacant lot on the corner at Rosemont and Broadway. Vedgewater is sponsored by the Peterson Garden Program, a notfor-profit, volunteer organization that teaches people how to grow their
own food. The garden project also sets aside a portion of its produce for local food banks. It also serves as a gathering place for community and family events. Next stop was the corporate headquarters of the S&C Electric Co., a global provider of equipment and services for electric power systems. S&C designs and manufactures switching and protection products for electric power transmission and distribution. The farmers received a hands — on demonstration of the firm’s smart grid exhibit. They learned how automated technology is used to improve efficiency and reliability in the production and distribution of electricity. The final stop was Uncommon Ground, a restaurant that features the nation’s first certifiably organic rooftop garden. The farmers toured the garden and learned about the restaurant’s history and how
State Rep. Kelly Cassidy (D-Chicago), left, listens to a representative of S & C Electric Co. explain his firm’s smart grid technology. Looking on left to right are DeWitt County Farm Bureau Director Jack Young, (orange shirt), county Farm Bureau President Tom Hieronymus (center), and the county Farm Bureau manager, Ken Bjelland. Recently, Cassidy hosted a tour of her north Chicago legislative district for her “adopted” county Farm Bureau. (Photo by Christina Nourie)
the restaurant uses produce grown on the roof. The group ate lunch at
the restaurant and sampled some of the restaurant’s popular dishes. Representatives from two local farmers markets’ joined the farmers and discussed the growth of farmers’ markets in Chicago and some of the challenges they face. The Farm Bureau group agreed Representative Cassidy helped them better understand her district and believe they have established a good relationship. The group presented the
representative with a Friend of Agriculture award during the visit. Cassidy said she looks forward to bringing her family to DeWitt County this fall to tour some farms to get to know her “adopted” farmers better and learn more about Illinois agriculture and rural issues. Christina Nourie is the Illinois Farm Bureau northeast legislative coordinator. Her email address is cnourie@ilfb.org.
‘Adopted’ lawmaker hosts Adams, Cook County FBs for discussion Adams County Farm Bureau leaders recently traveled to the north side of Chicago to reconnect with their “adopted” legislator, state Rep. John D’Amico (DChicago). Members of the Cook County Farm Bureau joined the group. Many issues were discussed, including transporta-
tion, pension reform, gambling expansion, the state budget, and upcoming elections. The representative said he was interested in learning about the impact of the drought on the state’s farmers and how crop insurance works. Cook County Farm Bureau representatives presented D’Amico his Friend of Agriculture award during the visit. An avid hunter, D’Amico said he hopes to travel to Adams County for duck hunting and to tour some farms and the Archer Daniels Midland terminal in Quincy. He said he appreciated the time the farmers took to travel to his district and update him on agricultural issues. D’Amico said he hopes to attend the Illinois Farm Bureau annual meeting in December.
Page 13 Monday, September 10, 2012 FarmWeek
from the counties
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UREAU — Bureau, Henry, and Stark County Farm Bureaus will sponsor a defensive driving course from 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 30-31, at the Black Hawk College Community Education Center, Kewanee. Attending both days is required to receive certification. Cost is $30, which includes materials and lunch. The course is for current auto policy holders 55 years old and older. Those who complete the course are eligible for an auto insurance discount. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-
875-6468 by Monday, Oct. 22, for reservations or more information. • Farm Bureau and Illinois Ag in the Classroom (IAITC) will sponsor an educational seminar from 4 to 6 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 19, at the Farm Bureau office. Sara Hildebrand, IAITC coordinator, will be the speaker. Continuing education credits will be offered to teachers who attend. Call the Farm Bureau office at 815-875-6468 or email Hildebrand at aitc.bcfb@comcast.net for reservations or more information.
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DGAR — Farm Bureau will sponsor a “Mighty Mississippi” bus trip Oct. 16-19. Stops will include the Field of Dreams, the National Farm Toy Museum, the John Deere Pavilion, and a day cruise on a riverboat. Go to the website {edgarcountyfarmbureau.org} for more information. EE — Members may purchase “buy one, get one free” slow-moving-vehicle signs during National Farm Safety and Health Week Sept. 16-22. Office hours are 8 a.m.
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to 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday. • Deadline to purchase custom candles is Friday, Oct. 12. Payment is due with order. Delivery will be in November to the Farm Bureau office. Order forms are available online at {www.leecfb.org} or by contacting the Farm Bureau office at 857-3531 or leecfb.comcast.net. OCK ISLAND — Farm Bureau and Country Financial will sponsor a defensive driving course from 8:30 a.m. to 12:30 p.m. Tuesday and Wednesday, Sept.
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25-26, at the Farm Bureau office. Cost is $12 for AARP members and $14 for nonmembers. People who haven’t had a accident or violation for 12 months are eligible for an insurance discount upon completion of the course. Call the Farm Bureau office at 309736-7432 or your Country Financial agent for reservations or more information. “From the counties” items are submitted by county Farm Bureau managers. If you have an event or activity open to all members, contact your county Farm Bureau manager.
Peoria County Farm Bureau observes 100th year BY PATRICK KIRCHHOFER
The Peoria County Farm Bureau continued its 100th Anniversary Celebration this year by hosting a picnic for “M” members on Aug. 26 at the Farm Bureau park. More than 160 people attended, despite the rain. The games and activities during the day were reminiscent of decades past and were based on action and exercise instead of computers and touch screens. They included an apple-
bobbing contest with Andrea Zahran claiming the crown. (Note to other county Farm Bureaus with future celebrations: Remove the stems for a more soaking venue). The wheelbarrow race was won by the team of Amena Garber and Lydia Plattner. James Chenevert had the longest hop and was able to stay vertical throughout the potato sack race, placing first. Joshia and Josiah Garber had the quickest time in the three-legged sack race.
The final event was the egg toss, which had the largest turnout of participants. Two team members faced each other and tossed a raw egg back and forth. After each toss, they would take one step back and attempt to complete
another toss without cracking the egg. A father and son team, Rod and Kendall Stahl, had the longest successful toss. Ed Hasselbacher, 91, won the award for the oldest member in attendance. Charis Garber at only 12 days was the
youngest in attendance. Shirley Hackman received the award for the most family members in attendance with 18. Wyatt McCoy was the winner in guessing kernels in a bottle of water. He guessed 1,378 kernels, and the bottle actually was filled with 1,371 kernels. Patrick Kirchhofer is manager of Peoria County Farm Bureau. His email address is peoriacfb@sbcglobal.net.
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Youngsters bob for apples during the recent picnic held for “M” members as the Peoria County Farm Bureau continued its 100th anniversary celebration. Andrea Zahran won the competition. (Photo by Patrick Kirchhofer, Peoria County Farm Bureau manager)
Auction Calendar Mon., Sept. 10. 4 p.m. Real estate and personal property. Don L. Kren Estate, SPRINGFIELD, IL. Cory Craig, Auctioneer. www.corycraig.com Mon., Sept. 10. 6 p.m. Whiteside Co Land Auc. The Noah P. Hermie Estate, DEER GROVE, IL. Schrader Real Estate and Auction C., Inc. schraderauction.com Thurs., Sept. 13. 7 p.m. Land Auction. Betty Axelsen, Daniel Brookman and Wilbur Brookman, Jr., NEW LENOX, IL. Rosenboom Realty. www.rosenboomrealty.com Sat., Sept. 15. 10 a.m. Macoupin Co. Land Auc. Estate of Wm. E. Cromwell, BUNKER HILL, I L. Ahrens and Niemeier. www.a-nauctions.com Sat., Sept. 15. 10 a.m. Warren Co. Land Auc. Jack L. Hennenfent and Tamara Hennenfent, MONMOUTH, IL. Van Adkisson Auction Service, LLC. www.biddersandbuyers.com or vanadkisson.com Wed., Sept. 19. 10 a.m. First Lot Closes. Online Only Unreserved Auc. www.bigiron.com Sat., Sept. 22. 10 a.m. Huge Old Country Farm Auc. Richard/Irene
Bossler and Glenn Heberer Estates, MASCOUTAH, IL. Mark Krausz Auc. Service. Sat., Sept. 22. 9 a.m. Clark Co Land Auc. Cecil Brasfield, WEST UNION, IL. Parrott Real Estate & Auction Co., LLC. www.sellafarm.com or www.parrottaucitons.com Sat., Sept. 22. 10 a.m. Farm machinery and misc. Est. of Marjorie Herriott/Plotner Trust, MAHOMET, IL. Gordon Hannagan Auction Co. www.gordyvilleusa.com Sat., Sept. 22. 9 a.m. Farm & Construction Eq Consignment Auc. TREMONT, IL. Cal Kaufman and Brent Schmidgall, Auctioneers. tremontconsignmentauction@yahoo.com Sat., Sept. 29. 6 p.m. Pike Co. Land Auc. John C Shover Est., BARRY, IL. Sullivan Auctioneers, LLC. www.sullivanauctioneers.com Sat., Sept. 29. 11 a.m. Christian Co. Land Auc. Kirby Harris and Greg Buesking, KINCAID, IL. Cory Craig, Auctioneer. www.corycraig.com Tues., Oct. 2. 7 p.m. Crawford Co. Land Auc. John Wilbur & Elsie Coward Family Trust, ROBINSON, IL. Parrott Real Estate & Auction Co., LLC.
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FarmWeek Page 14 Monday, September 10, 2012
profitability
Drought-stressed corn crop requires different approach BY RANDY HOLTHAUS
Whether you dodged a bullet or were body slammed by the drought, the 2012 corn crop will take some special attention and practices to maintain its safety, viability, and storability. According to the University of KenRandy Holthaus tucky College of Agriculture Cooperative Extension Service, the presence of the Aspergillis flavus fungus is usually prevalent in the latter stages of a drought and can lead to the development of aflatoxin. Little can be done to
reduce the risk of pre-harvest contamination. However, proper drying and storage are key to minimizing the risk of postharvest aflatoxin contamination. The conservative approach is to assume the harvested crop is contaminated with A. flavus spores and handle it in ways to minimize the risk of aflatoxin development. Those include: Start harvest early, clean the grain, dry it hot and fast, cool it down quickly, monitor closely in storage, and don’t store it as long. The entire focus is on avoiding any situation that would enhance or encourage mold growth. Harvest should begin soon after the crop matures. Delay-
Drought sours outlook for farmers, agribusinesses The drought has dampened the business outlook for farmers and agribusinesses. The Agriculture Confidence Index, released last week by DTN/The Progressive Farmer, showed a significant decline in attitudes expressed by the 500 randomly selected farmers and owners or managers of 100 agribusinesses. Overall, optimism by farmers about the present crop year since March eroded by 20 points (from 140 to 120). A value of 100 is considered neutral, higher values indicate optimism, and lower values indicate pessimism. Future expectations by farmers were a pessimistic 98.2. Agribusiness owners were much more pessimistic about the future. Their outlook for the future scored just 80.5, which is the most pessimistic reading since DTN/The Progressive Farmer started tracking business confidence in 2010.
M A R K E T FA C T S Feeder pig prices reported to USDA* Weight 10 lbs. 40 lbs.
Range Per Head $12.12-$45.00 $44.98
Weighted Ave. Price $34.78 $44.98
This Week Last Week 98,997 121,640 *Eastern Corn Belt prices picked up at seller’s farm
Receipts
Eastern Corn Belt direct hogs (plant delivered) Carcass Live
(Prices $ per hundredweight) This week Prev. week $65.93 $71.21 $48.79 $52.70
Change -5.28 -3.91
USDA five-state area slaughter cattle price Steers Heifers
(Thursday’s price) (Thursday’s price) Prev. week Change This week 121.80 121.00 0.80 121.70 121.89 -0.19
CME feeder cattle index — 600-800 Lbs. This is a composite price of feeder cattle transactions in 27 states. (Prices $ per hundredweight) Prev. week Change This week 141.80 139.96 1.84
Lamb prices Slaughter Prices - Negotiated, Live, wooled and shorn 90-190 lbs. for 90-125 $/cwt. (wtd. ave. 113.19).
Export inspections (Million bushels) Week ending Soybeans Wheat Corn 08-30-12 15.1 25.4 6.4 08-23-12 17.5 18.9 15.1 Last year 10.0 23.1 24.4 Season total 1365.5 258.2 1496.2 Previous season total 1489.7 299.8 1789.5 USDA projected total 1315 1025 1700 Crop marketing year began June 1 for wheat and Sept. 1 for corn and soybeans.
ing harvest usually increases loss potential from ear drop, field-borne disease, insects, birds, and weather. It is best to start when the corn is 25 percent moisture or greater, provided it can be dried to 15 percent or less within 24 to 48 hours of harvest. Wet grain waiting to be dried should be stored less than 14 hours. These practices are nearly impossible for natural air/lowtemp drying systems or systems that do not stir, re-circulate, or mix the drying grain.
Aflatoxin often is present in highest concentrations in broken and cracked kernels. Cleaning with a rotary or gravity cleaner can reduce the level of concentration. This is a practical option that is “sometimes” successful in reducing contamination levels, and it can be your first line of defense in dealing with the problem. However, research has shown that aflatoxin levels are not always reduced by cleaning. This is because aflatoxins can be present at high levels in ker-
nels that appear sound and undamaged. At this writing, we’ve received a few reports of aflatoxin-contaminated corn being discovered and trucks being turned away at the elevator. The situation is real and serious. Be aware, follow the rules, and minimize your risk the best that you can. Have a safe harvest. Randy Holthaus is GROWMARK’S grain systems operations manager. His email address is rholthaus@growmark.com.
Farm margins, credit could tighten in 2013 BY DANIEL GRANT FarmWeek
Farmers hit hard by the drought this year may have to deal with financial stress again next year, even if the weather pattern returns to normal. The University of Illinois recently projected crop prices next year could average $6 for corn and $12.50 for beans, which would be a significant drop from recent levels. The price estimates, implied from futures contracts, would reduce average operator and farmland returns in 2013 compared to this year. The U of I projected returns on highly productivity Central Illinois land next year could average $654 per acre for corn, down $45 per acre compared to this year’s estimate, and $405 for beans, down $14 per acre, if yields return to trend. Meanwhile, input costs for 2013 are expected to remain near record levels, which would add more pressure on farm margins. Total U.S. farm inputs this year posted a record $104 billion, up from $94.2 billion in 2011 and $81.4 billion in 2010, according to USDA. Joel Mortenson, financial officer with Farm Credit Services of America, urged farmers to watch their input costs and take a hard look at the crop insurance program that works best on each operation. “It’s real important to manage risk and take advantage of what’s out there,” Mortenson said recently at the Farm Progress Show in Iowa. If crop prices remain strong, Mortenson recommended farmers consider signing up for crop insurance with revenue protection for next year. “Farmers do pay a premium for crop insurance,” he said. “But it’s a trade off to make sure you stay in good (financial shape).”
Total U.S. farm inputs this year posted a record $104 billion, up from $94.2 billion in 2011 and $81.4 billion in 2010, according to USDA. Mortenson noted 80 to 85 percent of farmers bought some form of crop insurance this year. He said he believes it will be key to helping them cover expenses next year as some farmers could face tighter credit conditions. “There could be some guys hurting,” he said. “But I think there will be enough credit (available) to get the 2013 crop in the ground.” Mortenson said he does not believe the possibility of record crop insurance claims
will threaten insurance companies’ ability to pay. It just could take some extra time. “There should be enough funds available. It’s not going to be a problem,” he said. “But the adjusters are going to be extremely busy. It could take awhile to work through all the claims.” Crop insurance companies are coming off a strong year, there are reserves in place, and the companies have reinsurance to help cover major losses, Mortenson added.
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Page 15 Monday, September 10, 2012
PROFITABILITY Corn Strategy
CASH STRATEGIST
Corn marketing recommendations Occasionally, a fundamental or technical feature “pops up” that one just cannot ignore. We have included one of those with the accompanying graphic showing December 2013 corn futures overlaid on December 2012 corn futures. The calendar dates are aligned on the bottom even though only those for the 2013 contract are shown. What intrigued us was the fact that December 2013 corn futures are trading just below the levels of the December 2012 contract at this time a year ago. The contract high established on the 2012 contract a year ago, $6.73 1/2, held up until the drought eventually carried prices over the August 2012 contract high. And before that occurred, the contract had dropped to $5. Even though we can only make broad assumptions about the fundamental structure for the 2013 crop, it’s probably safe to say that supply will exceed demand next year unless yields would again come in well below trend. And based on historical patterns, that’s not likely. Hence, it implies making some 2013 crop sales just below the August 2011 high for the December 2012 contract is
a strategically good marketing move. At a minimum, covering the cost of seed, fertilizer, and maybe chemical inputs you will soon be making is a good strategic risk management decision. The situation in the soybean complex is much the same. November 2013 soybean futures are currently trading just below the $14 contract high the November 2012 contract set in August 2011. In regard to the corn crop you are just now harvesting, the lack of carry in futures and forward cash bids indicate you should price corn across the scale instead of storing it. That fits with the normal, subsequent price pattern that follows drought crops. Prices tend to peak early, eroding lower through the remainder of the marketing year. However, if prices would experience a hard break by the time you are finishing harvest, we would consider short-term storage, depending on the depth of the break. Generally, we’d have to say something below $7.50 on December 2012 futures. Poor-quality crops tend not to store well, adding another reason not to store corn for sale later this marketing year. And if you find your corn has aflatoxin, or is at risk of developing it, you might be better off to move the corn rather than store it. Still, we realize that everyone has his own unique situation, so act accordingly.
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ü2012 crop: The December contract’s close below $7.93 tilted the odds toward the trend turning down into the 40-week low coming in middle to late September. We still think having 70 percent of a realistic yield priced is a good strategy, but don’t exceed your insurance guarantee. ü2013 crop: Use rallies on December 2013 futures for catch-up sales. vFundamentals: Hurricane Isaac brought muchneeded moisture to central/eastern Midwest last week, but didn’t have the high winds producers were fearing. Informa and FC Stone both projected corn yields for this week’s USDA report could fall below 120 bushels per acre, tightening the fundamental structure even more. Still, the trade has become uneasy about demand with evidence that buyers are both limiting their short-term purchases and turning to other sources when possible.
Soybean Strategy
ü2012 crop: The soybean rally stalled last week, but didn’t break enough to indicate the short-term trend might be turning down. But because prices are hovering just above minor support, we’d use current levels for catch-up sales. But make sure you don’t exceed your insurance guarantee. ü2013 crop: Use rallies above $13.50 on November 2013 soybean futures for catch-up sales. vFundamentals: Unlike corn, we do not yet have any yield reports to guide production expectations. Rains from Isaac stimulated ideas yields that might improve slightly, but others still think the yield will drop slightly lower. The average trade consensus is biased that way as well. The bigger issue is the pace of demand going forward, and as we outlined last week, there’s reason to think demand already might have adjusted to the smaller crop. The pace of export
shipments this fall will be a critical indication.
Wheat Strategy
ü2012 crop: Wheat could become vulnerable to downside weakness. Confirmation of a turn would come with a Chicago December contract close below $8.65. Use rallies above $8.90 on Chicago December futures for making catch-up sales. ü2013 crop: Make catch up sales with Chicago July futures trading above $8.60. vFundamentals: The overall fundamental structure in wheat got a little
tighter with reductions in Russia’s crop. Egypt still is able to source wheat out of Russia, Ukraine, and Romania, but it took more money to complete the last purchase, lowering the premium the U.S. and European wheat have to other world exporters. Prevailing wisdom suggests the Russians will not have any to ship beyond December. Heavy rains last week caused some flooding problems in some Argentine wheat areas. Our Central/Southern Plains received moisture, but more is needed with planting to begin soon .
FarmWeek Page 16 Monday, September 10, 2012
perspectives
So you think you’ve seen big bugs
Sample size matters in clear research results Agriculture’s winter meeting season is when everyone hears what a university or company agronomist says about the latest issues facing agriculture. They usually hear those comments with statistical language woven into the exchange. Occasionally, a speaker will get excited about the number of respondents to a survey or the number of data points collected during a study. Why are response numbers and/or lots MATT of data points MONTGOMERY important from a statistical standpoint? There really are only two ways to get research “wrong.” Either someone will state there is a difference between two groups when there actually is not or will declare that no difference exists when one does. Researchers often try to keep the chances of falsely claiming a difference at about 5 percent. They try to keep the chances of falsely claiming no difference at about 20 percent. The first is held to a more severe standard because claiming something “works” when it does not appear to be the worst of research sins. Decreasing the chance of making a false claim all depends upon variability of a group and how many responses one receives or how many data points one collects. Let me illustrate by using an example of height. Imagine you wanted to see if the residents in one community were taller than those in another. You could measure the height of everyone or you could measure a small sample from a community. The average determined by measuring the height of every person in a town would be exact. However, most would prefer to merely do a sampling because that is more efficient. But measuring only a portion of a community decreases the confidence in our results. If I measured the height of only five
people in each community, I wouldn’t be very confident that the results would be exactly the same next time around, especially if those five people tended to have very different heights. Nobody likes being wrong, so in the example above I might provide myself some “research cover,” hedge a little, and explain I sampled such a small number and people had such different heights I couldn’t say exactly how tall everyone is. I might report the average height probably is between 4 feet 4 inches and 5 feet 11 inches. Sampling more people, say 100 or so, would increase my confidence in my data even if the residents’ heights ranged from the rather small to the rather tall. I probably would reflect that by mentioning less of a gray area. I might say I think I’ve accounted for much of the variability and am pretty sure the average height is probably between 5 feet 2 inches and 5 feet 4 inches. Isn’t it interesting that as the number of responses or size of the sample increases, I feel more confident and hedge less? A small sample means that picture of the study is still too blurry. With a small sample, I have to cover myself too much, which makes it hard to say anything with much confidence. A really high response number brings the real situation into a little more focus and makes it less likely that I will make the wrong claim. A smaller sample size means less confidence, more hedging, and lots of gray area. Having a really big sample is all about sharpening the picture and decreasing the chance of falsely claiming differences or no differences. Sample number is all about bringing the real story into focus and creating less of a gray area. Remember that during the 2012-2013 winter meeting season. Matt Montgomery is a University of Illinois Extension educator. His email address is mpmontgo@illinois.edu.
A walking stick insect found in Southeast Asia is nearly 2 feet long. Africa’s Goliath beetle weighs about 2.5 ounces. The Atlas moth of the Malay Archipelago has a wingspan of about a foot. Those are some of the largest insect species that exist today. Once upon a time there were larger insects. Back in the day of the dinosaurs there were all kinds of large creatures, including insects. One of the largest insects was a griffinfly. This dragonfly– like insect had a wingspan of 2.5 feet. But like dinosaurs and saber-toothed tigers, this behemoth of an insect also perished. Scientists speculate why such large insects can no longer be found on the earth. Some say it is because the current oxygen content of the air is not sufficient to sustain insects of that size. Insects depend on diffusion of oxygen to meet their biological requirements. Such a process can work only if the animal is small and the oxygen concentration of the air is sufficient. So, as the oxygen content of the air declined, large insects were TOM TURPIN unable to survive, according to some speculation. Another speculation involves the evolution of birds. Many birds are insect predators and as these aerial predators became more adept at flying, they made life miserable for insects. So miserable that birds might have contributed to large-insect species being driven to extinction. Certainly, today there are no insects the size of cows, but humans have always been fascinated with the “what if ” question regarding large insects. We make horror movies with gigantic insects about to wreak havoc on humankind. Recently, a number of traveling exhibits for use in parks and museums featured very large insects. One of the first of such exhibits is entitled “Backyard Monsters.” This exhibit features six animatronic creatures between 6 and 8 feet tall — 96 times their natural size. The creatures are a tarantula, wasp, two fighting beetles, tomato hornworm caterpillar, and a monarch butterfly. Advertising for the exhibit promises a bugseye view of the world. In other words, what if we were the size of insects and insects were the size of humans? Through September 2012, Chicago’s Brookfield Zoo is featuring an exhibit Through September called “Xtreme BUGS.” The exhibit 2012, Chicago’s Brookfeatures 20 giant creatures, including a field Zoo is featuring an 33-foot-long Japanese hornet and a ladybird beetle the size of a Volkswa- exhibit called “Xtreme gen Beetle. Those are just two of the BUGS.” The exhibit feametal framework and polyfoam insects, tures 20 giant creaspiders, and centipedes in the exhibit. A couple of years ago, Colombian tures, including a 33artist Rafael Gomezbarros created a foot-long Japanese hornumber of ants — 4 feet in length — and displayed them crawling on the side net and a ladybird beeof a building in Bogota. The artist stat- tle the size of a Volksed that the giant ants were symbolic of wagon Beetle. the people displaced by armed conflict in Colombia. Size-wise, those Columbian ants pale in comparison to the 18-foot ants created by metal sculptor Bill Secunda. One of Secunda’s ants holds a motor scooter in its mouth. In addition to the giant ants, Secunda created a 14-foot scorpion and a 35foot-in-diameter spider. He also fabricated 12-foot steel cockroaches that appropriately adorn a building occupied by a pest control company in Dallas. Metal ants are one thing, but Italian sculptor Lorenzo Possenti calls his larger-than-life insects “Ecofauna.” These sculptures are accurate scientifically in shape and color. According to the sculptor, you can see the intricacies without a microscope. Possenti’s Ecofauna insects are about the size of third-graders. Now that’s a scary thought — an insect about the size of and with the attitude of a third-grader. Thank goodness the oxygen levels of the earth are below those needed for such insects to survive! Tom Turpin is a professor of entomology at Purdue University, West Lafayette, Ind. His email address is turpin@purdue.edu.
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