Opinion

E-commerce and cash flow keys to small business recovery

By John Hagarty

Times Con ribu in Wri er

Christine Kriz, director of the Lord Fairfax Small Business Development Center, has never been busier. She and her part-time staff of four provide support to the region’s small businesses as they reintegrate into an economy laid low by COVID-19.

Kriz’s turf covers eight regional counties, including Fauquier, and the City of Winchester. Her charter assists any firm with fewer than 100 employees and less than $50 million in annual revenue.

In quieter times, the Lord Fairfax SBDC helped aspiring entrepreneurs start and run a business. Such assistance would include creating marketing plans, preparing loan applications, helping manage day-today operations, and even providing support for selling a company.

Disciplines included accounting, human resources, marketing, operations, distribution and virtually any aspect of creating and running a company.

Before the pandemic, Kriz’s team assisted about 420 clients a year. Today, she is on track to helping some 1,200 local firms recover and thrive from the impact of the national lockdown.

While all of the previous support is still in place, two issues regularly surface from businesses struggling to find a path back to normalcy: e-commerce and cash flow.

E-commerce is poised to play a more significant role in the months and years ahead. Initially, many of her clients were eager to embrace a more substantial digital role to survive. Now their focus is shifting back to the conventional strategies, especially for retailers.

“But we are still emphasizing e-commerce because there are people who prefer to buy that way. We don’t know if the economy will shut down again if a second virus wave hits later this year. Companies need to be prepared to sell both online and in person.

“Among the many things we offer is free consulting, paid for by tax dollars, to help people meet with Google and other e-commerce experts. These are people who can help them get their websites up and running. We also offer free website evaluation, social media expertise, and overall online marketing strategies to drive people to those sites,” said Kriz.

When the pandemic first hit, businesses were seeking her out for immediate assistance in building their e-commerce skills. Now that Phase 2 recovery is in place, many firms are shifting their focus back to former sales strategies.

“We are preaching the message that ‘you cannot forget about your online presence. Don’t lose the momentum you’ve begun to establish.’”

The advice she provides companies is to reach out to their customers and continuously ask them, “How do you prefer buying from us?” She said there are a majority of buyers in the marketplace who still do not feel comfortable going out shopping.

The second important issue is creating a cash flow plan. When Kriz encounters owners who eschew working with numbers, she urges them to have a bookkeeper do it or to meet with her. She can also point businesses to numerous free tools that are available to help achieve sound budgeting practices.

“I can’t overemphasize how important it is for companies to know their numbers today and to know their cash flow,” emphasized Kriz. "In normal times, 80% of firms go out of business because of cash flow problems. We want people to make rational decisions, not emotional ones when it comes to their finances.”

LFSMDC receives funding from the Small Business Administration, which is matched by at least 50% from local economic development groups. The funding is vital because federal funds will not be forthcoming unless local judications contribute too.

“If there is anything positive that has come from the pandemic, it’s the response from our economic development partners. They have been fantastic,” said Kriz.

Since March 17, Kriz and her team have been both telecommuting and meeting via Zoom with businesses in need. She operates out of three Fauquier Enterprise Centers located in Flint Hill, Marshall and Warrenton.

The new grade-separated interchange at the intersection of U.S. 15/17/29 and Va. 880 (Lord Fairfax Road) — one of the busiest intersections along U.S. 29 in Fauquier County — will partially open to traffic on June 23.

The ramp from southbound U.S. 15/17/29 to northbound U.S. 15/17/29 business toward Warrenton will open to traffic on June 22 in the afternoon. Most of the other ramps, the bridge and the two roundabouts will open on June 23; one ramp is not built yet and will require a detour.

Mid-morning on June 23, weather permitting, traffic will begin to use the new interchange instead of the traffic signal to access Warrenton, Lord Fairfax Community College, the Warrenton landfill, nearby homes, businesses and U.S. 15/17/29.

Motorists on northbound U.S. 15/17/29 will exit to Warrenton via the right lane instead of the left turn lanes at the traffic signal. Drivers will continue through the new roundabouts, over the bridge and into Warrenton.

All existing turn lanes will be closed on June 23 and the traffic signal will be removed.

Temporary detour via Meetze Road

Once the interchange partially opens to traffic, crews will begin constructing the ramp from the roundabout on the west (Warrenton) This illustration shows how the new intersection at Warrenton’s gateway will work.

LFCC/U.S. 29 intersection to partially open to traffic June 23

side of the project connecting to the acceleration ramp to southbound U.S. 15/17/29 toward Opal.

While the ramp is under construction, motorists on the east (LFCC) side of the project intending to go south on U.S. 15/17/29 toward Opal will be temporarily detoured via northbound Va. 15/17/29 to Route 643 (Meetze Road), to southbound U.S. 15/17/29.

The acceleration ramp from southbound U.S. 15/17/29 business, coming from Warrenton, to southbound U.S. 15/17/29, toward Opal, will reopen to traffic on June 23. Motorists on the west (Warrenton) side of the project can use this ramp via To Warrenton

the right lane to access southbound U.S. 15/17/29 and will not need to use the detour.

The detour will be in place for about three months.

What motorists can expect on June 23

Message boards will be updated both prior to the interchange opening and again once the interchange is open to traffic.

Motorists on U.S. 15/17/29 business and Va. 880 should expect brief traffic stops and congestion that will result in potentially major delays around mid-morning on June 23 while crews make final adjustments to traffic control devices and open the interchange.

The future

If the economic ship of state rights itself and the country begins to return to prosperity, how CHRISTINE KRIZ long will it take to see the good times return? Kriz said, “I follow a lot of top-level economists who are predicting it will take three years to make a complete comeback.

“Seven percent of all jobs will not return. For small business owners who are doing well, it's because they are pivoting their businesses based on what their customers are telling them. An owner cannot rely on a ‘this is the way we’ve always done it,’ business model.

“The key is communication with customers. Finding out what they want and how they want to buy. If you cannot adjust to the reality of these demands, you will not be around two years from now,” said Kriz.

The Lord Fairfax Small Business Development Center website may be found at https://lfsbdc.org/.

Firms can also sign up for a free no-obligation business consultation using its COVID-19 recovery website https://www.virginiasbdc.org/ recoveryresourcecenter/.

Drivers are encouraged to follow the message boards and directional signs and to use caution while traffic adjusts to the new traffic pattern. Visit the project website for roundabout driving tips.

Expect nighttime lane closures on U.S. 15/17/29 on June 23 and June 24 for removal of the traffic signal and overhead signs.

Project information

Under a $19.6 million contract, design-build contractor Shirley Contracting Company, LLC of Lorton, with design services from Dewberry of Fairfax, has worked since February 2018 to design and construct the grade-separated interchange, utilizing two roundabouts connecting all points of travel.

Until the project is complete -- by Nov. 25 -- motorists should watch for workers near the travel lanes while the remaining project tasks are completed.

The shared use path and the new park and ride lot with 20 commuter parking spaces on Lord Fairfax Road are still under construction.

More information about the project, including roundabout driving tips, can be found on the Virginia Department of Transportation’s website at www.virginiadot.org/ projects/culpeper/warrentoninterchange.asp.

Email at yourview@fauquier.com

Fauquier Times | June 17, 2020

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OPINION

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LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Local physician explains the value of face masks in fight against COVID-19

Other local physicians and I have heard the complaints and refusals to comply with the governor’s declaration that masks are going to be required indoors in most circumstances: retail establishments including grocery stores, government buildings, entertainment and amusement establishments, inside all personal care and grooming establishments, and generally on everybody over the age of 10 years old. The sentiment is that people have the right to not wear a mask, that the COVID-19 pandemic “isn’t a big deal” and we really don’t have to be concerned. Since the Fauquier area and surrounding counties have endured more of the economic impact than the illness impact to this point, it is easy to develop a local “tunnel vision” to what is going on in the areas around Fauquier County.

There is a very good chance that could change, and quickly. It’s imperative we take steps to protect ourselves, our loved ones, and yes, our business community. Rather than eschewing masks, we need to embrace them any time people are in public or with any group outside of immediate family. As nearly every health expert has pointed out, a great majority of those with COVID-19 are asymptomatic, meaning they aren’t showing signs of the illness. That means that your contact with somebody outside the local pub may now have you incubating the virus and you don’t even know it.

The most important part of wearing a mask is that it protects those around you a lot more than it may protect you. While N95 masks are the gold standard, most people outside the medical community can’t find them. While wearing a cloth mask may only reduce your risk of contracting COVID-19 by 10 to 15%, they are much more effective in keeping our respiratory droplets from getting on others. Major studies have demonstrated we could reduce viral transmission by nearly 90% through proper mask use. For example, Australia has nearly eliminated new cases after implementing their mask law. By going out in a mask, we aren’t losing our independence; we are demonstrating that we care for our friends and neighbors.

Consider this scenario: You are incubating COVID-19 but don’t know it yet. You go into a small local business without a mask and make a purchase. While paying, you sneeze, cough, or even just breathe somewhere near the workers in the store. Those around you are now exposed. Multiply that by several dozen unmasked customers a day and workers are at high risk of becoming infected.

The rules are still in place that if somebody tests positive for COVID-19, they need to be quarantined for 14 days, which means they can’t be at their place of business. If they were in close contact with others, or if others in the same business also come down with the virus, that business will effectively shut down as significant numbers of their staff have to stay home. For a sole proprietorship, a case of COVID-19 means complete closure until the virus completely passes, which could be significantly more than a 14-day quarantine.

Fauquier has so far escaped the brunt of the illness. As of May 27, we’ve had 302 reported cases and five deaths, not numbers that would set off alarms. However, if we look just to the east and the north, we see Prince William with 5,000 cases and 99 deaths, and Loudoun with 2300 cases and 53 deaths. Prior to NOVA opening, we were seeing our area touted on Prince William listservs as the place to go to get a haircut or have an alfresco lunch. It’s telling that the infection rate in Fauquier was in the hundreds last week and is now over 300. With an incubation period of nearly 14 days, we can expect our local numbers to go up, especially with the influx of possibly infected individuals. It’s quite possible they already have, and we will learn the new numbers over the next couple weeks.

Remember, masks don’t infringe on our independence; they allow us to be independent safely.

DR. MICHAEL AMSTER

Warrenton

If elected, John Lesinski will serve the 5th District, and all Americans

You might say we have a “mixed marriage.” One of us is a life-long (75-plus years) Republican and the other, a former Republican, is now an independent. It’s important information because we want you to know we are both supporting an extraordinary candidate, John Lesinski, as the Democratic Party nominee for the 5th Congressional District in the upcoming June 23 primary.

In today’s divisive world, we write to encourage everyone to vote for the person, not just the party. Without the contributions of varying ideas, we shall never progress as a country. We firmly believe, like many national thought leaders we know and respect, that should the bitter national divisiveness continue, our country will continue a dangerous downward spiral that has begun in recent years.

Bill, the family Republican, was appointed to head the FBI in 1978 by Democratic President Jimmy Carter and remained there to serve under Republican President Ronald Reagan. In 1988, President Reagan appointed him to serve as director of Central Intelligence.

The ability and integrity of a candidate, not just party affiliation, should be the true north in any election.

We know John Lesinski to be an extremely capable person of character that you can trust to do what is best not just for us living here in the district, but also for the country. He and his wife Heidi deeply love this area and have been active and effective citizens here.

Congress is desperately in need of people like John who will work hard and not be afraid to work collaboratively, crossing the aisle when necessary to accomplish important things for the American people. As a Marine, he served with fellow Americans, not Republicans and Democrats; as a member of Congress, he will again represent all Americans, not just those in his party.

John understands that our country is at a critical crossroads; we need leaders with vision and energy to tackle our big challenges, such as health care, climate change and the environment, rebuilding our economy and addressing inequalities. You can learn more about his campaign at www.johnforva.com.

As a leader in the military, business, and in local government, John will serve the 5th District proud and will work to restore trust in our elected officials and Washington. We are pleased to endorse and support John Lesinski in the June 23 democratic primary.

JUDGE WILLIAM H. WEBSTER AND LYNDA WEBSTER

Washington, VA

Local health director urges caution

As we move into more and more reopening activities and interactions, it’s a good idea to stop and reflect on some good news and some warnings. As you can see from the graph, the number of cases in the health district have fallen significantly. We are now almost three weeks out from the Memorial Day weekend and three weeks removed from the initiation of Phase 1...[executive order]. We still don’t seem to have a bounce in cases that one might expect from these recent opening events, and I take that as a very good sign.

A few words of caution, though, are in order. We have yet to see what might come from the recent protests that resulted in a number of people out in close proximity to each other. We also seem to be suffering from what I call “COVID fatigue.” This term implies that there are many who are tired of doing the things that likely led to a downturn in the number of cases. The masking, the distancing, the worry, all the things that we wish were behind us. Believe me, our staff is certainly feeling the effects of

this phenomenon as they have been slogging through the daily work that this pandemic brings to the health department.

I would like to remind everyone that this was and continues to be a marathon, not a sprint. We need to catch our second wind, get back on the track and move forward. I hope that the trend noted in the graph continues, but we need to remind ourselves that those data are the results of what we were doing a couple of weeks ago. What the graph looks like a couple of weeks from now will be determined by what we do today.

Thanks for all you do.

WADE KARTCHNER, MD, MPH

Health Director, Rappahannock/ Rapidan Health District

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