Home prices remain high as inventory falls

Greater Piedmont Realtors is a trade association of real estate professionals and affiliate members serving the counties of Culpeper, Fauquier, Madison, Orange, and Rappahannock. Its mission is to provide outstanding services and leadership to help their members be successful and profitable in real estate.

They produce a quarterly report which reflects housing activity in the five counties they represent.

Regional summary

As the summer housing market comes to a close in the Greater Piedmont region, there are some early signs of a slow-down, however it is still too early to tell if it’s here to stay. Sales declined in the region for the second quarter in a row. Flattening sales have also occurred in the national-level housing market, which could suggest a softening of demand. Despite declining sales, home prices in the region continue to rise, a reflection of the low level of active listings available and continued buyer demand locally. Summary highlights from the market data this quarter include:

Home prices continue to rise steadily in the region, a trend that has been occurring now for five years. The average sales price rose 5.3 percent and the median sales price climbed 5.0 percent compared to the third quarter of 2017.

For the second consecutive quarter there were fewer sales in the Greater Piedmont region compared to last year. Sales fell 8.0 percent from last year, the sharpest drop in four years.

Sold dollar volume declined by 3.2 percent from a year ago, the second decline in nearly two years. Even with the rise in sales prices in the region, the decline in sales led to the drop in dollar volume.

The average days on market continues to decline in the region, a reflection of the low inventory available. On average homes sold in 71 days in the Greater Piedmont region, three days faster than last year.

Culpeper and Orange counties were the only jurisdictions in the region to see an increase in the number of active listings, rising 11.5 percent and 3.7 percent respectively compared to last year.

How did Fauquier County fair in the third quarter?

Sales: For the second consecutive quarter, there were fewer sales in the Greater Piedmont region compared to last year. There were 697 sales in the third quarter of 2018, 61 fewer than the same time last year, an 8.0 percent decline. This is the sharpest quarter-over-quarter decline in sales for the region in four years, though it is still too early to determine if a trend is emerging. Declining sales also occurred at the county-level:

Fauquier County: There were 287 sales in Fauquier County in the third quarter, down 3.4 percent from a year ago, a drop of 10 sales

Home Prices: Despite the declining sales in the region, home prices continue to rise at the region-level and in many of the counties. The increasing sales prices are reflective of limited supply of active listings which remains at a historically low level. At $363,980 the average sales price in the region rose more than $18,000 from the third quarter a year ago, a 5.3 percent increase. Similar trends occurred with the median sales price. At $315,000, the median sales price in the Greater Piedmont Region rose 5.0 percent from this time last year, a gain of $15,000.

Fauquier County: At $394,000 the median sales price in Fauquier County rose 2.3 percent compared to the third quarter of 2017, a gain of $9,000.

Active Listings: The number of active listings in the region remained relatively flat compared to last year. There were 1,149 active listings at the end of the third quarter, two fewer than a year ago, a modest 0.2 percent drop. The inventory of homes for sales has been declining sharply for the past few years, this quarter is the first sign of moderation for this metric. Several of the counties in the region also had relatively small reductions in the number of active listings and some had increases compared to last year.

Fauquier County: There were 436 active listings in Fauquier County at the end of the third quarter, down 7.6 percent from the same quarter last year, a decline of 36 listings.

Days on Market: Homes continue to sell faster in most of the Greater Piedmont Region which indicates strong demand in the market and a low supply of active listings available. On average, homes sold in 71 days, which is three days faster than the third quarter a year ago. Notably, about one out of every four homes sold in the third quarter region-wide were on the market for 10 days or less.

Fauquier County: On average homes sold in 74 days in Fauquier County in the 3rd quarter, 6 days slower than this same time last year. Source: Lisa Sturtevant and Associates, LLC

Key Market Indicators

- 3.4% | Units Sold: 287

+ 10.3% | Average Sales Price: $478,404

+ 2.3% | Median Sales Price: $394,000

+ 6 days | Average Days on Market: 74

+ 1.2% | Average Sales Price to Original List Price Ratio: 95%

- 7.6% | Active Listings: 436

Source: Greater Piedmont Realtors. Numbers represent change from third quarter 2017.