February 2015
More + More
for 2015 The chase is on for more bushels from more acres
PLus • Shaw says: prices will be good, for good marketers • how to get better yields from secondand third-year soils • Will the west‘s taste for beans reshape the industry?
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February 2015 The road ahead
page 4
Inoculation gains ground
10
Disease risk high
14
Market outlook, 2015
20
Digging into food-grade soybeans
24
The West’s big challenge
28
Grain analyzer gets attention
32
Need to know
34
Taking pulse
39
The bigger crop
I
t seems clear now that the momentum for 2015 is with soybeans. Acres will be up, and up, and up. This is good news, but let’s admit that it isn’t as good news as it should be. Soybeans haven’t had the political leadership they need in either the East or the West. Both markets lack the dynamic processing sectors that are essential for exploiting the crop’s full potential. It’s part of the unwillingness to invest and the overall short-sightedness on infrastructure that we see in Canada, especially on the part of the Canadian government. For a decade and more, we have pointed to South America with almost a sneer, saying that it may have the acres to grow huge piles of soybeans, but it can never move those piles to market. Well, now it can. South America has invested, and while no one would say it has solved all its challenges, it is definitely making progress. Country Guide readers will know too, based on reporting by our Gerald Pilger, that Australia has made great logistical strides in recent years, often in ways that let farmers invest in and share the profits of greater exports. In Canada, meanwhile, the federal Conservatives write a never-ending series of welcome but very small and targeted cheques for one crop this week and another crop next week, or for one region today and another region tomorrow. It’s part of a master plan to improve the competitiveness and the market orientation of Canada’s ag output, and in that regard, it’s money well spent. But make no mistake; the success of the Canadian farm requires processing, and it requires efficient transportation. 2015 is an election year. You can bet that farmers will do their part, growing their own huge pile of beans. But will the federal parties take hard stands on their investments in infrastructure, or will we fall further behind? Tom Button, CG Editor tom.button@fbcpublishing.com Soybean Guide, February 2015
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Soybean guide
The road ahead What makes you so sure that you can plant more soybeans and still pull off good yields? By Ralph Pearce, CG Production Editor
Fertilizer strategies need a serious rethink, agronomists warn, especially on second- and third-year soils.
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oybeans, soybeans — and more soybeans. That’s the forecast from most corners of the agri-food industry, whether it’s based in Western Canada or in the East. Soybean production in Canada was big in 2014 and it’s on a path to grow even bigger in 2015. At the same time, that growth will come at a cost for many growers, particularly in Ontario, where there are likely to be more second- and third-year soybeans. One forecast says at least one-third of the acres planted in this province will be in second-year fields. Yet there are also some hopeful scenarios to be seen as the growing season begins to unfold. Unlike 2001, 1993 or even 1988, weather extremes have popped in the past five years, yet crops have fared quite well, with better yields than expected. It’s a testament to two developments: that timely rains or warm spells really can make up for an otherwise poor season, and the public and private plant breeders are doing an excellent job incorporating the right germplasm to handle stress. Even so, opting out of standard rotations puts that progress at risk. Although some in the industry are forecasting three million acres of soybeans for Ontario, Pat Lynch, an independent agronomist from Stratford, Ont., believes this figure could climb higher — maybe to 3.25 million.
A lot will depend on the influence of other cropping factors. Corn’s pricing below the US$4 mark at the end of 2014 together with poor winter wheat plantings are likely to drive more acres into soybeans for the year ahead. Even the federal government is projecting a production increase of 11 per cent across the country, with domestic crush to rise by four per cent and exports to jump more than 20 per cent. Against that backdrop, says Lynch, it isn’t just the continuous nature of soybeans in the rotation, it’s the lack of a break between soybean crops. Some areas in certain counties have seen three years of soybeans out of the past four, even when corn prices were good. “Some soils are just too heavy to grow much of a corn crop,” says Lynch, who happens to be the one forecasting at least a third of Ontario soybean acres will be second- or third-year fields. “The only thing that had changed was soybean prices being higher, so returns were better the last three years.” Soybean prices are likely to remain better than corn for the time being, and more growers are trying other practices to help mitigate the effects of continuous soybeans, adding applications of certain fertilizers, planting earlier and ensuring Continued on page 6
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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they have the best varieties to suit their soils and farming practices. Among the bigger concerns with continuous soybeans is the impact from diseases. (Read more about the situation on soybean diseases for 2015 on page 14.) White mould has become a particular problem in the past two years in southern Ontario, the incidence of sudden death syndrome (SDS) is also on the rise, and soybean cyst nematode (SCN) continues as one of the more consistent yield robbers across the province. With that in mind, says Lynch, growers really need to be more vigilant with certain management practices. “The weakest part of a soybean plant is below ground, and if growers could see how much disease is below ground, they’d be appalled,” says Lynch. That’s why something as simple as switching varieties can help by providing different genetic control of different diseases. Lynch also cites use of a seed treatment, which he calls “a must.” For white mould control, some suggest decreasing population and widening the row widths, but Lynch isn’t convinced either measure is necessarily a benefit. “In my experience, wide-row soybeans are just as prone where white mould is severe,” says Lynch, adding that wider rows on continuous soybeans tend to yield lower. “There is also no doubt that increasing seed rate is a good strategy. More years of beans means more diseases and more seedling death.” Fertilizer considerations The big shift that Lynch believes we’ll see in 2015 is in crop fertilization. There’s been considerable discussion in Ontario and the U.S. dealing with fertilizing soybeans. U.S. farm publications have featured grower testimonials on the 6
For 2015, growers need to avoid planting soybeans to cool wet soils, if at all possible. Otherwise, they increase the risk of diseases, particularly white mould.
practice, some from farmers with more than five different in-season treatments. As well, there have been urgent reminders from dealers and retailers, calling attention to the fact that in Ontario, soils in general are testing poorly, particularly on phosphorus (P) and potassium (K). “More farmers will look at fertilizer but, unfortunately, too few will look at the basics of pH, P and K,” cautions Lynch. “They’ll be spending time and money on ‘silver bullets’ that are foliarapplied. It’s good to look at some of these products but it must be in a coordinated, well-thought-out fashion after you have the basics of N, P, K, magnesium and manganese addressed.”
with corn and soybeans,” says Moloney. “That’s not really a rotation; growers are just alternating crops.” Another problem that’s going to really challenge growers this year will be weed management. Moloney has seen more eastern black nightshade in his area, along with more pigweed. The herbicide resistance angle has not been a huge challenge in midwestern Ontario, says Moloney, but he’s seeing signs of Group 2 resistance showing up with greater frequency. And still another issue that will further confound the weed management situation is that of volunteer corn: there’s more of it and it’s getting harder to control.
“The weakest part of a soybean plant is below ground, and if growers could see how much disease is below ground, they’d be appalled.” — Pat Lynch, independent agronomist Weed control Robert Moloney shares many of Lynch’s obser vations, par ticularly “breaking the cycle” that continuous soybeans doesn’t allow. Corn and soybeans do a tremendous service in rebooting the soils and adding an element of diversity that doesn’t allow disease, pest and weed cycles to become entrenched. “Corn, with that one-year break in there, pretty much resets everything, so it’s not a big deal where it resets the yield bar,” says Moloney, a certified crop adviser with Boyd’s Farm Supply in Fordwich, Ont., north of Listowel. “With soybeans, you really do need that twoyear break away from the crop in order to reset the bar back to its full potential
“We had a lot this year, we sprayed a lot this year, and we should have sprayed a whole lot more, but we ran out of time and product, and it became a real challenge,” says Moloney. Moloney also notes that one of the successes of late 2014 was communicating to growers that with more continuous soybeans, cutting back on tillage might be a means of reducing disease potential. But like Lynch, he sees the whole fertility and nutrient situation continuing, especially where many growers still believe soybeans to be the crop that doesn’t need any fertilizer, a notion that’s both stereotypical and inaccurate. “Some still have a little bit of an attitude Continued on page 8
Soybean Guide, February 2015
Continued from page 6
that you don’t need to fertilize soybeans, but with potash in particular, because we’re pulling 50- and 60-bushel soybeans consistently, so we’re taking out a lot more potash, most of the time,” says Moloney. He’s even boosted his potash recommendations in the past couple of years. “We’re starting to get through that cycle where the soil tests are at best holding even and, in a lot of cases, are starting to slip on potash, just because we’re taking into account the yield and how much potash we’re taking out.” Considerable jump in yields For Horst Bohner, a larger soybean crop in the province carries some defined risks, including diseases, weeds and the overall impact on rotations. The state of the winter wheat crop has been thrown into uncertainty, and corn’s late harvest and high drying charges through last fall have highlighted its struggles. That’s why
the historical numbers on soybeans are so gratifying to Bohner, the soybean specialist for the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. In 1984, the provincial average yield for soybeans was 34 bushels per acre, and for the first time in the history of agriculture in Ontario, there were a million acres of soybeans. In 1997, the province eclipsed two million acres for the first time, with a five-year average of 39 bushels per acre. “Now the five-year average at 3.05 million acres is 46.5 bushels per acre,” notes Bohner. “If you look at it that way, we’ve made tremendous progress.” Yet he concedes that the historical record doesn’t help the short-term prospects for growers, especially those who are facing second- and third-year soybean crops and what that can mean particularly on the disease front. “I do think that we need to stress that the yield expectations have to be lower in second- or, especially, in third-year soybeans,” says Bohner. “You just can’t expect to get what you would if it was after corn
By the numbers Sources including Statistics Canada and the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA), indicate that production and acreage values for most of the soybean-growing area in Canada is on the rise. For 2014, Canadian production rose to 5.96 million tonnes, up 13.5 per cent from 2013. In terms of area, there were 5.45 million acres harvested nationally, an increase of about one million acres above the previous year. Ontario is the leader in production and acres with 3.8 million tonnes, up 17.1 per cent from 2013, according to StatsCan. Acreage in the province was set at 3.06 million acres. Quebec’s and Manitoba’s numbers for production and area also increased, compensating for yield losses in both provinces. In Quebec, overall production rose to 898,000 tonnes, a six per cent jump, with harvested area up 20 per cent. Yields were down 11.6 per cent. In Manitoba, production jumped 3.7 per cent, to 1.1 million tonnes, with harvested area up 20.6 per cent, offsetting yield losses of 14.1 per cent (to 32.3 bu./ac.) from 2013. In Ontario, projections are calling for another increase in soybean production, in large part due to the wet and delayed fall conditions, which curtailed winter wheat planting across most of southern Ontario. It’s estimated that only 600,000 acres of winter wheat were planted, and it remains to be seen how the crop will fare by spring. With so many challenges getting corn out of the field — together with poorer pricing expected for both corn and soybeans — it’s expected soybeans will take up much of the acres not planted to the other two crops. 8
— it’s pretty hard to pull off a 55-bushel field in second-year soybeans.” In a stressful year, he adds, consecutive years of soybeans fare much worse than crops where rotations are maintained. In stress-free years, where there’s adequate moisture, sufficient heat, low pest populations, good weed management and adequate fertility, second-year beans will do quite well. But with the introduction of any moderate to severe stresses such as excessive dryness, high aphid counts or white mould in a wet year, those second- and third-year soybean fields will be the first to show the effects. To mitigate those second- and thirdyear risks, Bohner preaches the fundamentals. Reducing tillage is one practice which he believes can have an impact, and Bohner believes that dropping the seeding rate will create more air through the canopy, reducing diseases. “There’s no question that lower plant stands have an impact on the incidence and severity of white mould, so the issue is around row width also, and there’s some evidence that wider rows play a role in this,” says Bohner. “But the bigger factor is the number of plants established per acre.” Bohner also echoes Moloney’s concerns about weed control issues. Again, in a second- and third-year soybean scenario, growers are getting into that established cycle which only helps weed species become better-entrenched. “Whenever you’re doing the same thing over and over, it’s compounding the problem,” Bohner says. “If it’s a Roundup Ready field this year, and you don’t have any glyphosate-resistant weeds, obviously we would suggest that you throw in some other actives to try to reduce the likelihood of developing resistant weeds, but there’s no reason why you can’t have a clean field again.” So the bottom-line recommendation is to manage soybeans either for high yield through earlier planting, long-season varieties with more inputs, or in fields with a history of white mould, try a different strategy altogether. Select a variety with excellent white mould tolerance that is physically short, reduce the seeding rate, use wider rows, consider planting later and select a shorter season variety. These factors will lower yields in years with no white mould but can go a long way in reducing white mould in a bad year. The yield benefits from reduced white mould will far exceed any losses that come from thinner stands. A foliar fungicide can also go a long way in reducing the impact of white mould. SG Soybean Guide, February 2015
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Soybean guide
New product for soys Although the inoculant market is overwhelmingly based on rhizobia bacteria, there is one product new to Ontario which is reportedly gaining some traction. It’s a mycorrhizal fungi, classed as a fungal inoculant (as opposed to a bacterial product). According to Kate Bruinsma, sales representative with Premier Tech Agriculture, Myke Pro L fits with the technical definition of an inoculant is a “beneficial
Inoculation gains ground
micro-organism (bacteria or
OMAFRA’s Horst Bohner now recommends always
fungi) encapsulated in carrier
inoculating. “There are some real benefits.”
material and applied to the environment for remediation
By Ralph Pearce, CG Production Editor
and enhancement of agricultural productivity.” Available in Ontario since 2012, Myke Pro L is supported by one-year data in the province that has found a three bu./ac. yield increase across a large geographic area, from Oxford, Perth and Middlesex counties as well as around Walkerton to Beaverton, east of Lake Simcoe. Again, it’s just one-year data. Two formulations were used depending on the equipment employed by the farmer. Roughly half used the Pur Myke Pro L liquid product, applied in-furrow through kits on the drill or planter. The other option was the Myke Pro PS3 power formulation, which can be mixed on the seed at time of planting.
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n the world of agriculture, there are very few constants. Most practices and standards last only until new research shifts our thought processes, or until a new challenge or a new opportunity changes the landscape. There are plenty of recent examples. Within the past decade, the hard-andfast rule of always planting corn first has changed; sometimes it’s better to get the beans in and go back to finish the corn when the conditions are right. Another is the rule about cold-water imbibition. As recently as seven years ago, this was something to avoid if at all possible. Today we hear less about cold water uptake, and maybe it’s because of the hardiness of soybean seed or maybe it’s because our weather is getting warmer. Bottom line, standards are always changing. Now it’s happening with seed inoculant too. Until a decade ago the clear consensus among agronomists was that the only ground where it makes sense to inoculate is in first-time soybean fields. Why waste that money when soils that have had soybeans in the rotation already contain high numbers of the nitrogen-fixing rhizobia bacteria? Well, farmers spend it because it’s inexpensive insurance and it guarantees
the right source of rhizobia in the ground, helping to establish those nodules and get the plant fixing its own fertilizer. According to Horst Bohner, soybean specialist with the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA), inoculating — or pre-inoculating — soybeans is now just one more function of treating seed or the soil during the course of the planting season. It’s becoming as automatic as other seed treatments, or the notion of fertilizing soybeans with potash. Such practices may not have been part of the plan 10 years ago, but they’re becoming more front-of-mind today. “We’re trying to make things as convenient as possible for the producer because of acreage, speed, and size,” says Bohner, who has completed a six-year study on the impact of inoculants in soybeans. “So the trend to pre-inoculants has been pretty good, and there are some real benefits to that.” T he more that’s lea r ne d from research, the more often inoculants are being recommended. In past, it was enough to inoculate new soybean ground. But as Bohner has found, soil rhizobia on their own need a boost, hence the current trend towards preinoculants as a seed treatment, even on fields with a history of soybeans. Soybean Guide, February 2015
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Bohner adds that in 2014, there were many fields with poor nodulation, mostly due to the cold spring conditions. Some producers he met had several hundred acres of first-time soybeans with no nodules, even though an inoculant had been applied. Some of those failures, he notes, could have been magnified by the reliance on a single application such as a liquid inoculant or a pre-inoculant. Generally, it’s been found that if two products are used on first-time fields, there are fewer nodulation problems. “It’s not just in those fields, and it’s not just the pre-inoculants, but certainly it’s about getting the right bacterial numbers on the seed,” says Bohner. “We need to be careful in first-time fields, and that’s what we learned again (in 2014), that a single pre-inoculant is not good enough; they need to put on two products to get around the issue of nodulation failures on first-time fields.”
“I think every field in the province — every year — should get an inoculant. It doesn’t hurt, and there’s a small net benefit to the producer for doing that on every field, every year.” — Horst Bohner, OMAFRA Despite the changing mindset in using inoculants and preinoculants, the bacterial strain used as an inoculant hasn’t changed since the early 2000s. It was in 2002 that Dr. Dave Hume, professor emeritus at the University of Guelph, was testing the addition of Bacillus subtilis to the standard inoculant strain of Bradyrhizobium japonicum. On its own, B. subtilis is a common, naturally-occurring bacterium, but added to the rhizobium strain, it acts as a plant growth promoting rhizobacterium (PGRP), which in some fields stimulates early growth in soybeans. It is not, however, an inoculant by itself. Bohner is aware of companies that are researching new strains — some from South America — but none of those are commercially available for use at this time. What he does see coming in the future is an uptake in biostimulants, plus nematode control or other products to allow better nutrient uptake. But his take-home message for the time being is that there’s no reason not to inoculate. “I think every field in the province — every year — should get an inoculant,” says Bohner. “It doesn’t hurt, and there’s a small net benefit to the producer for doing that on every field, Continued on page 12
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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every year. And 2014 was one of those years where it was cool and wet in the spring, and if you have an inoculant it just puts the nodules on a little bit faster. Is it going to change the world? No, it’s about a bushel to 1.5 bushels per acre on average, but it doesn’t cost that much to put on, so why not do it?” For Mike Verhoef, relying on inoculants is more one of those “getting back to basics” approaches that are earning more attention from farmers, agronomists, advisers, retailers and company representatives. He confirms Bohner’s statement about the companies being involved in more research into newer strains, but also the use of polymers, colourants and seed application processes. And he echoes Bohner’s contention that we need to be more specific with terminology and the differences between the inoculant (Bradyrhizobium japonicum) and the growth promoter (Bacillus subtilis). Instead, he wants to focus on the farmer’s primary investment — the high-value, “traited” seed. “By putting an inoculant on that seed, you’re guaranteeing that that seed has instant access to healthy, robust rhizobia and that it’s ready to start self-affixing nitrogen through the production of nodules,” says Verhoef, national seed company manager with BASF Canada. “Even though they’ve grown soybeans on that field before, and there will be rhizobia there, it doesn’t mean that there are the healthy robust rhizobia that it needs.” Verhoef adds that he’s glad to have Bohner making the point about inoculation being an inexpensive form of insurance, and remembers his presentation at the Southwest Agricultural Conference in 2012. That day, Bohner spoke of his six-year study on inoculants and how there was little need for more study or analysis, just that inoculating works, so why not do it? “If you ask any soybean expert, U.S. side or Canadian side, what are a few of the key things you must do on soybean production, inoculant is in the top three,” says Verhoef. In Western Canada, where growers are becoming more familiar with soybeans and corn, they’re already sold on the benefits of inoculating. With a new pea and lentil inoculant — capable of boosting yield between seven and 11 per cent — most growers in the West place inoculating on a scale of impor12
“If you ask any soybean expert — U.S. side or Canadian side — what are a few of the key things you must do on soybean production, inoculant is in the top three.” — Mike Verhoef, BASF Canada tance above seed treatments. So in that sense, says Verhoef, Western Canada producers are ahead of those in the East, where he says the industry is still encountering the notion that soybean ground needs no inoculant, unless it’s first-time ground. “You could comfortably say that companies like ours are always looking for improvements in strains, improvements in formulation and improvements in carriers,” says Verhoef. “To do that, we’re always looking at new biologicals to add,
to make that whole process work better. The biggest interest right now is this whole ‘ease-of-use’ and on-seed movement and making it easier for the grower, so we’ve put a lot of focus into that in the last five years — hence the whole pre-inoculant situation. But as we do that, ease-of-use is also part of lowering the application use rates, longer days on seed and the formulation processes.” Research also continues into a formulation process to put more living bacteria in a smaller amount of product. SG
East versus West terminologies A point of interest in the world of inoculants is the use of terms like “double inoculation.” It’s used more in Western Canada, says Mike Verhoef, national seed company manager for BASF Canada. In Eastern Canada, the term is “full-rate” but in the final analysis, it’s the same thing. In the West, half-rate is applied as a liquid pre-inoculant directly on the seed. Then, farmers typically apply an in-furrow inoculant, hence the “double” terminololgy. It’s actually the full-rate that some growers apply in the East (a pre- and then an in-furrow inoculant). In Western Canada, growers also use their “double-rate” inoculants as a standard application. Soybean Guide, February 2015
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Soybean guide
OMAFRA’s Tenuta calls white mould our most “fickle” disease
Disease risk high With so many rotations thrown out of sync, extra disease vigilance is essential for 2015 By Ralph Pearce, CG Production Editor
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here’s only one word to describe the outlook for soybeans in 2015. It’s “more.” With a reasonable spring, Eastern Canada’s soybean crop may hit an amazing 3.25 million acres. But acreage isn’t the only number that may be up. We’re also likely to see more fields with second-year and some with third-year soybeans. Then, if the predictions hold true, we’ll also see more white mould (sclerotinia) and sudden death syndrome (SDS). That’s bad news our diseases are on the move. White mould is usually ranked as the biggest yield robber in eastern Ontario and western Quebec, but last year saw it become a bigger issue even in the southwest. SDS was seen in more growing regions too, and in greater severity. And soybean cyst nematodes (SCN) remained a considerable yield robber, not only across southern Ontario, but also farther east in the province as well. Of course, Phytophthora root rot and Pythium damping off should never be ignored, wherever you are.
In other words, more regions are seeing more risks, and just about every farm needs to be on the alert in order to ward off a series of major threats. Public and private agronomists are all looking at a tough 2015. Diseases were a problem last year, they say, but with an increase in soybean acres — along with more continuous soybeans — that trend is expected to continue, if not intensify. “White mould, sudden death syndrome, soybean cyst nematode, the root rots and seedling diseases will be some of the biggest ones there,” says Albert Tenuta, field crops pathologist for the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs. Tenuta adds that the threats are compounded by one of the key management tools to drive yield upwards — earlier planting into cool, wet soils. White mould Tenuta calls white mould “the most fickle disease” facing growers, but it’s also Continued on page 16
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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the most frustrating from an extension and research perspective. Inoculum is often present, but in order to thrive, the disease requires very specific environmental conditions, particularly for moisture and temperature. In 2014, there were some exhibitor plots at Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show with visible symptoms of the disease. “In the years where we have coolerthan-normal and wet conditions, we see what can happen with white mould,” says Tenuta. He notes that many producers have all but forgotten how destructive white mould can be and how it can impact yield. “We have a lot more sclerotia left on the soil surface and in the upper two inches of the soil profile, and those are the most critical within a season for developing the spores,” Tenuta says. “They’re the ones that will cause you problems. Anything below two inches will remain buried and won’t germinate or develop into the apothecia and then the spores — they’ll just stay there.” But surely, a grower might say, the conditions that made 2014 such a bad year for white mould aren’t likely to repeat in 2015. That’s true, but Tenuta points out that the inoculum load is that much greater, particularly in fields with beans on beans or beans on beans on beans, and this will increase the risk. And unfortunately, in no-till scenarios, those sclerotia are ready to spring into life within two inches of the soil surface. So, would 2015 be the year for some light or moderate tillage to prevent those pathogens from developing? Not necessarily, says Tenuta. Discing or cultivating the soil in the spring might just as easily bring any buried sclerotia back to the surface. And even if you end up with fewer sclerotia up where they can cause trouble, there may still be enough to create a serious risk. The only way to really break the cycle is to maintain rotations — which is a challenge given the current pricing cycle. “It goes back to all of these different diseases, and one of the most important things from an integrated pest management (IPM) standpoint is variety selection,” says Tenuta. “What growers do in the winter cannot be taken for granted. Planning is critical to a successful growing season — and variety selection is the most important.” Understanding white mould pressure 16
White mould is moving south, SDS is moving east, and more fields face more threats.
from field to field is paramount, because that’s how growers will be able to select the right variety for those fields. There’s no genetic resistance to white mould incorporated into current soybean germplasm or varietal lines, only tolerance to the disease. Tenuta is quick to point out that there are also pre- and in-season treatments that have not been available to growers in the past, including biologicals that can be applied pre-plant that colonize and disrupt the sclerotia, plus newer in-season treatments that are being developed. “We can often get some degree of control or suppression of white mould but we can’t get rid of it,” says Tenuta, adding that knowing which fields are susceptible is the first line of defence. “It comes down to genetics and germplasm and variety selection. I can’t overemphasize the importance of variety selection for the specific needs for your specific fields.” The frustrating part of white mould is that unlike some other diseases or insect infestations, it doesn’t have a visual threshold that can be used for scheduling a spray. Once the disease is visible in a field, that field is infected and it is beyond the point where it can be treated via a chemical application, which becomes little more than revenge spraying. What’s more frustrating is that many of the measures that promote higher yields, such as higher plant populations, higher fertility and narrow rows, can provide the right microclimate within the canopy for the disease to flourish. “The key in 2014 was that optimal environmental conditions stayed much longer than normal,” says Tenuta. “In most years, we end up with hot, dry conditions by the middle of July and into August, and even though we have white
mould starting, it doesn’t spread any further. In 2014 though, even with a preventive fungicide application (at R1 or R2) and even some later applications (around R4 or R5) the extended fall seemed to help the diesease. But Tenuta still says those early applications are something to consider, particularly if you have the higher-risk situations. Sudden death syndrome According to several sources, sudden death syndrome is another emerging challenge for growers, and 2014 was another year of marked increases in the disease, particularly in southwestern Ontario. For the coming year, SDS may see another jump in area or in intensity, given the rise in acres and the increased frequency of second- and third-year soybeans. “Again, variety selection is important and soybean cyst nematode resistance is important,” reminds Tenuta, drawing a link between SDS and soybean cyst nematode, which he often referred to early in 2014 as well. “And unfortunately, with SDS, it’s often our best fields that are showing the disease. It’s the same thing with white mould; high-fertility, highgrowth conditions promote white mould, and the same things happen with SDS. The good fields, the high-productive fields are often the first to show SDS and often see the most damage as well.” Like white mould, SDS increases as growers continue to plant earlier into colder soils in an effort to push maturity on their soybeans. It’s not that early planting is a bad idea, just that the risk of infection — and from more diseases — increases. With Continued on page 18
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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SDS, notes Tenuta, it’s cooler, wetter conditions, typically within the first two or three weeks of planting, that are very important to establishing the disease. It’s at that point the disease pathogen will colonize the roots and then wait until stress conditions occur or until later in the growing season when the typical SDS above-ground symptoms start to appear. Even in a good growing season, Tenuta says, the disease can cause damage and yield loss. It’s all the more reason for growers to know their fields and to understand the disease species that are present. Only then, Tenuta says, can they respond with the right integrated pest management strategy, including variety selection. “Seed treatments are also important,” adds Tenuta. “Fungicide seed treatments are a necessity for soybean development and for maximizing yields, and we must not underestimate their importance.” Tenuta has been working with U.S. researchers in the north-central soybean research program to look at sudden death syndrome as well as seedling disease, and also with the Grain Farmers of Ontario through a Growing Forward 2-funded project. They’ve noticed that with sudden death syndrome in particular, yield losses can run as high as five to six bushels per acre. And that’s just with normal planting dates. In testing a new active ingredient seed treatment, however, Tenuta says the joint Canada-U.S. research project has found it gives a yield boost of three to four bushels per acre, even where the crop was planted at the end of April under cool, wet conditions into soils with a high SDS. “There are some good new tools coming down the pike that growers will be able to integrate into their management system, as well,” Tenuta says. Soybean cyst nematode A long-standing pest of soybean fields, particularly in southern Ontario, soybean cyst nematode (SCN) continues to be a perennial leader in the “yield-robbing” category. In spite of standard sources of resistance (i.e. PI 78877 and the Peking sources) incorporated into varieties, the troubling issue with this disease pest is that there are some new Heterodera glycines (HG) types and nematode populations that are putting pressure on existing resistance sources. In 2014, there were some resistant 18
Whether it’s nematodes, as above, or diseases, a good defence builds on genetics.
varieties that were more susceptible to SCN than in the past. The other concern with SCN is that it is not as environmentally dependent as other diseases. Tenuta says regardless of weather or climatic conditions, there will always be some level of SCN infection, with consequences for fields. If it’s a highly stressed year, then even at lower populations there will be more potential for damage. In some good years, there may be little or no above-ground symptoms, but that doesn’t mean the damage isn’t being done. Phytophthora and Pythium Of the prevalent diseases in soybeans these days, Phytophthora root rot and Pythium damping off are the most environmentally dependent. At the present time, Phytophthora resistance is fairly well entrenched, but Pythium is showing signs of developing a more diverse threat. Within the past decade, there were only one or two Pythium strains; now researchers are isolating nine or more from different varieties. Even if resistance to Pythium is lacking in soybean germplasm, there are good seed treatments available, including Metalaxyl and Metalaxyl-M. Yet Tenuta says there are also signs of resistance to those active ingredients beginning to creep into fields. “As our GFO-funded project has shown, we’re seeing all of these disease organisms get smarter and have the
ability to adapt to our management practices,” Tenuta says, speaking specifically of Pythium but referring in gener al ter ms to al l of t h e d i s e a s e s mentioned above. Take-away message Again, Tenuta says he can’t overemphasize the need for preplanning and for farmers to know their fields. The work done in the middle of winter will pay its own rewards, he adds, especially if rotations are being sidetracked with back-toback, or back-to-back-to-back soybeans. It is paramount to review field notes from previous years, to map out parts of fields where certain diseases may be a problem, and to diversify those varieties, perhaps planting five different varieties across five different fields rather than opting for a favourite or “workhorse” variety. It’s also worth noting that these disease issues continue to develop and diversify, becoming part of the “normal” farming landscape. There is no single silver bullet solution, says Tenuta, and there is no single active ingredient that can be called upon to solve every issue, be it a disease, or a weed species or insect pest. “We never had that (silver bullet) in the first place, but the seed is now being challenged by a more diverse pathogen population,” says Tenuta. “We’re going to have to depend on different active ingredients to hit those little niches of what we’re missing. It’s going to become more complicated in the future.” SG Soybean Guide, February 2015
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Soybean guide
Market outlook, 2015 W
Demand is keeping pace with increased production, but will that continue? Here’s what to watch By Philip Shaw
20
ith every new year come great challenges. For Canadian farmers looking out into their 2015 planning horizon, soybeans are increasingly a large part of that. Where once soybeans were relegated to the deep southwest of Ontario, now there are three million acres in Ontario and 836,000 in Quebec, plus over one million acres in Manitoba with continued expansion expected every year in Western Canada. For the soybean, it seems the best of times. But will this continue? As we look into 2015, what are the market factors that will determine our price expectations? It used to be said in southwestern Ontario that all you had to do was plant soybeans and wait. The conventional wisdom at the time was that you planted them in a cloud of dust, tried to control the weeds and eventually you would have a crop at the end of the day. However, over the years, with the expansion in the acreage, management has also evolved. There is no particular silver bullet to increase soybean yields. It’s more of a silver shotgun involving many management factors which help achieve that goal. It is the same on the soybean marketing front. In 2015, producers will need to consider many marketing factors that are impacting the soybean complex. In 2014, Canadian soybean farmers watched from a distance as our American friends produced a record crop. The United States last year planted a record 84.2 million acres of soybeans and harvested a record yield of 47.5 bushels per acre. That was a tremendous increase in acreage from the previous year when U.S. soybean farmers planted a crop of 76.8 million acres. This record crop in the United States created somewhat of a bearish environment where prices moved down throughout 2014, bouncing back to some extent into a rally starting in late October. Of course the question that has to be asked moving forward is how many soybeans will U.S. farmers plant in 2015, and what impact this might have on price going forward. According to many private estimates, U.S. producers are set to increase the area of soybeans to 88 million to 90 million acres this coming spring, beating last year’s record. If we put a hypothetical yield of 45
bushels per acre to that production, we’ll be very close to the record production of 2014 of 3.958 billion bushels. At first glance, it is certainly setting up as a year where a lot more soybeans get planted and if Mother Nature plays nice, there will be great production in the fields. Keep the $10 soybean futures mark in mind. For instance, as the clock turned over to January in 2015, the nearby futures month was at approximately $10.02 a bushel. This put cash soybeans in Ontario at approximately $11.40 a bushel when you consider basis. Needless to say, the $10 mark in soybeans will always serve as a litmus test for some producers. The production in both North and South American fields in 2015 will largely determine whether that price resides north or south of the $10 mark. The $10 mark will largely be determined by crop size but also by demand and ending stocks. The projected U.S. ending stocks for soybeans in the 2014-15 crop year are 410 million bushels. This is considered quite onerous, especially when last year ending stocks actually dipped below 100 million bushels to 92 million bushels. This was unprecedented at the time and reflected an unusual shortage of old-crop soybeans. Looking ahead, if demand stays strong and even climbs possibly to 3.85 billion bushels in 2015, we may still end up with ending soybean stocks over 400 million bushels in the U.S. Of course the United States always has a tremendous effect on the price of soybeans, but our South American friends now grow far more than the United States. For instance, the December estimate from USDA pegs U.S. production at 107.73 million tonnes of soybeans. When you combine Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay together you get production of 157.2 million tonnes. Clearly, this production in South America has a huge effect on the price of soybeans looking ahead. Into our mid-winter, South American weather has been benign, which is positive for soybean yields. This South American soybean crop size will be a critical factor in determining the price of soybeans. Continued on page 22
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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The elephant in the room in any discussion with soybeans is China, which seems to have an insatiable appetite for the world’s soybeans. It is set to import 74 million tonnes in 2015 and this demand is growing. There is always a lag time between U.S. and South American supplies to China. This is likely to happen in 2015, just as it has happened in previous years. Last year with old-crop supplies being very tight, it was a bit of a scramble to source beans into China especially with the logistical problems in South America. This year, even with those South American logistical issues, more soybeans translate into a smoother transition on that import. For Canadian soybean producers, there are two great production areas to look at, the United States and South America. First up is South America where soybeans will be flowering and filling in January and February with the main harvest commencing in March. Any weather issue in this time frame will affect the futures prices. It will be the same in the U.S. with the planted acreage figure being key to that equation. The first clue to how many acres American farmers will be planting will be announced in the USDA report on March 31, 2015. Any discussion regarding grain prices in Canada must also include the value of the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar has dropped from par values in late 2013 down to the low 80s in January 2015. Soybeans are priced in U.S. dollars at Ontario end-users and a simple currency exchange can add large amounts on to cash values, especially when the dollar is low. For instance, oldcrop basis values sit at approximately $1.15 a bushel over the March futures in early January. A par dollar or the loonie at a premium means negative basis levels for soybeans. This movement in the Canadian
dollar must always be considered, as its importance to cash prices to producers is always critical. Hedging the futures and considering the Canadian dollar go hand in hand on Canadian farms. However, it’s a two-way street. The value of the Canadian dollar is directly related to the value of the U.S. dollar and to some extent to the price of oil. As the Canadian dollar has dropped, the value of the U.S. dollar in comparison has done the opposite. It has been going up, acting as a drag on all commodity prices. In 2015 it will continue as long as the U.S. dollar shows buoyancy, and this will temper agricultural futures prices. So as we move ahead into 2015, after the South American crop is in, North American acres will become very important. Along the way, USDA reports will always serve as flashpoints for market action. The March 31 USDA prospective plantings report will be the first big benchmark in the new-crop marketing year. The June 30 USDA planted acreage report will be the second big benchmark for futures prices going into summer. Producers will need to consider these two reports when hedging soybean prices for the new-crop season. The road ahead in 2015 for soybean farmers will surely be challenging. It is often said that soybeans can be the great liars, since their production potential is often very difficult to measure in season. With expanded acres this year and somewhat onerous ending stocks, pricing those soybeans may add to their reputation. However, at the end of the day, soybeans always tell the truth. There will be marketing opportunities ahead. Unknown geopolitical events can always come along to upset the most considerate market projections. Risk management never gets old, and that certainly is the case with soybean pricing in 2015. SG
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Soybean guide
Digging into food-grade soybeans This four-year study aims to exploit the best traits and qualities in IP soys By Ralph Pearce, CG Production Editor
A Food-grade soybeans are sold to processors and manufacturers who are more sensitive to quality parameters, and intensely concerned with changes that might affect the consistency of their tofu or natto products.
griculture often has to take a look back in order to see what’s ahead. Farmers do it with their cropping plans and seed orders. Retailers and suppliers do it too, using the previous year’s experience to improve in the year ahead. Now the food-grade soybean sector is embracing the same strategy. Thanks in part to a federal research grant and the participation of three industry partners, researchers at the University of Guelph will identify the most desirable traits from past and present varieties, and build a process for incorporating them into future seed. The Guelph team is led by soybean breeder Dr. Istvan Rajcan with grants f r o m t h e Na t u r a l S c i e n c e s a n d Engineering Research Council through its Collabor ative Research and Development fund (NSERC-CRD).
Other members of the team include research associate Chris Grainger, PhD candidate Robert Bruce, Dr. Milad Eskandari from Guelph’s Ridgetown Campus, and Dr. François Belzile from Laval University. In today’s environment, if a researcher has industry support, they can leverage matching federal dollars. “And that’s what we did,” says Rajcan. “We worked on that idea for a couple of years and tried to find partners within the industry who were willing to support it, and we were successful.” The result is a four-year program, with support from Grain Farmers of Ontario (GFO), SeCan and Huron Commodities Inc. In all, Rajcan and his colleagues have received nearly $2 million in government and industry support, with more than $500,000 from the three industry partners.
“We can build this new strategy of incorporating everything that’s positive for various traits into new varieties that would be superior for more than one trait.” — Dr. Istvan Rajcan, University of Guelph
24
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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The project is looking into the genetics of various important traits for soybean breeders. Food-grade is the primary focus at this stage, and the reason is simple: the private sector is turning out new crush varieties, but the food-grade side is largely dependent on public breeders, and varieties such as OAC Bayfield, OAC Kent, OAC Wallace and OAC Prudence are all examples of the success of programs at Guelph and the university’s Ridgetown Campus.
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Lots of variation, lots of lines In this second year of the project, work is proceeding from a historical perspective. Most of the first accessions — the ancestral lines — of soybeans grown in North America originated in Asia, specifically China, Japan and Korea. Those first lines are still the foundational genetics used in soybean breeding programs across the continent. By Rajcan’s calculations, 35 ancestral lines account for about 90 per cent of the genetics in Canada and the U.S. Fortunately, there’s considerable diversity within those 35 lines, and a lot of the diversity has been already utilized in the breeding of some 300 lines, representing commercial and experimental cultivars, says Rajcan. “About two-thirds of those 300 lines come from the Guelph program and onethird are from the Ridgetown program.” The next stage is very scientific. Rajcan’s PhD student is working on genotyping those 300 varieties using sequencing methods. That creates a lot of molecular marker data to characterize those lines genetically and look for differences between them. Researchers are also comparing those genetic variations with the phenotypic differences to identify desirable traits such as yield, oil content, protein content, fatty acid profile and isoflavones. Ultimately, it’s hoped the research will identify those similarities among the best performers, with a final goal of incorporating those common traits into superior-performing varieties. Continued on page 26
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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“Once we figure out what is common for each trait, then we can build this new strategy of incorporating everything that’s positive for various traits into new varieties that would be superior for more than one trait,” says Rajcan. Early in the process For the time being, this research is at a type of “search and discovery” stage, with the end-goal of having a better genetic toolbox for Canadian soybean breeders when its four-year run is complete. That would give them the molecular markers that are important for developing a high-yield, superior quality variety. And Rajcan emphasizes that he and his colleagues are looking to improve everything, not just yield: specific qualities and even disease resistance traits are under consideration.
“The goal is to ensure that variety development down the road isn’t missing out on variations that can improve varieties for Ontario.” — Dr. Josh Cowan, Grain Farmers of Ontario “Some researchers would refer to this as a certain kind of pedigree-based association mapping,” Rajcan says. “And I’m aware of the private seed sector conducting association mapping studies, but I’m not sure if they’re looking at a historical perspective as much as we are. The benefit of looking at it from a historical perspective is that we can see what changes in the genome have led to certain changes in the phenotype of the plant.” As it stands, public and private sector breeders have different objectives that can vary greatly. The private sector wants to quickly produce new varieties with a focus on improved traits. The
public sector breeding programs on the other hand, focus primarily on specific traits, often related to those properties most desired within the food-grade sector, and usually sought-after by the food processors and manufacturers. It’s a part of the food-grade industry that’s of particular interest to the Grain Farmers of Ontario. For years, GFO directors and executives have been advocates for more value-added opportunities to boost net grower revenues. “When you’re looking at food-grade, it’s a market-driven entity, so the customer gets familiar with the variety, and they’d like to have the same variety for a long
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Left: Researchers at the University of Guelph are engaged in mapping the soybean genome in such a way that it will enable breeders to select for more of the desirable traits for future varieties.
time,” says Crosby Devitt, GFO’s vice-president of strategic development. “The customer understands it and they know how to process it properly versus a commodity where if you’re making meal and oil, variety changes aren’t as significant to a crusher as they would be to a tofu manufacturer where small changes can make a big difference to their process.” Devitt adds that with food-grade soybeans, there’s also the need for a stable and profitable market. To develop that market, Ontario food-grade varieties need to be able to compete with commodity varieties. To look at that from a breeding perspective, he notes, breeders like Rajcan must accommodate more targets for traits and quality characteristics than a commodity soybean. Perhaps what makes the food-grade sector more intriguing is the longevity of some of the varieties that the public sector has developed. OAC Bayfield, for instance, had a lengthy and productive history of combining good agronomics with consistent quality across a large geographic area, all the while managing year-to-year variability. Another testament to the public breeding sector is news from Martin Vanderloo, president of Huron Commodities. In a message sent to Rajcan just before Christmas 2014, Vanderloo spoke of the successful sales of quantities of seed of the varieties OAC Madoc and OAC Prudence in parts of Russia and Ukraine. Both are short-season varieties. The right needle in the haystack Dr. Josh Cowan is GFO’s new manager of research and innovation, and joins Devitt in praising this project and the work of Rajcan and the team of researchers. He notes that this type of mapping of the soybean genome is aimed precisely at developing the best varieties for Ontario conditions. “There tend to be a lot more specific characteristics looked at on the food-grade side of the soybean,” says Cowan. “So to be able to understand what we have available to work with in a breeding program in order to meet those end-user characteristics is important. And the food-grade soybean marketplace for Ontario is key. From the project perspective, the goal is to ensure that variety development down the road isn’t missing out on variations that can improve varieties for Ontario.” Underlying part of this project is a particular need for the other two partners — SeCan and Huron Commodities. By participating in this research, the companies will benefit from developing a breeding-and-traits pipeline for identity preserved (IP) or food-grade soybean varieties similar in approach to what some private-sector companies have been doing in the IP sector for years. Sevita has been developing its varieties through ProSeed, one of its parents, and the same was the case for Thompson’s Elite IP program, which benefited from work done by Hyland Seeds prior to its purchase by Dow AgroSciences. Now with this University of Guelph project, SeCan and Huron Commodities can benefit from the same type of opportunities. “I think what we’ve seen as a strategy in a breeding program is that you don’t target one trait; you want to keep variability in your program,” says Devitt. “So every year, the material you’re generating has a range of different traits in it. You don’t know 100 per cent what the market will want 10 years from now, but you’re maximizing your chances of having something that fits.” SG Soybean Guide, February 2015
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Soybean guide
The West’s big challenge Despite their province’s soaring soy acreage, Manitoba’s hog industry is still locked into expensive imported soymeal. Worse, change may still be years away By Ron Friesen
I
t was another banner year for Manitoba soybeans in 2014 with production hitting a record 1.1 million tonnes, up 3.7 per cent from 2013. Figures from Statistics Canada show that, although average yields dropped 14 per cent to 32.3 bushels per acre, a 21 per cent increase in harvested area more than made up for lower yields. Since soybean meal is a basic ingredient in hog and poultry rations, you’d think Manitoba livestock producers would be rubbing their hands at the prospect of feeding their animals locally grown soybeans instead of having to import them. Unfortunately, most soybeans consumed by livestock in Manitoba aren’t grown in the province. Instead, almost all the soybeans grown in Manitoba end up being shipped out of the province for other markets because of a lack of processing capacity. Manitoba has only three small soybean processors, one of them a roaster. Although they do serve the local market, they provide only a small fraction of the soymeal fed to livestock in the province. 28
Nearly all soymeal used in Manitoba is imported from feed mills in the U.S. or Eastern Canada. So, while soybean production in Manitoba grows by leaps and bounds, livestock producers watch unit trains haul locally grown soybeans to the West Coast and elsewhere, while soybeans from other regions come in across the border to fill the void. The industry is acutely aware of the irony of shipping soybeans out of the province while at the same time importing them to make up for the loss. Officials agree it would make economic sense to process soybeans here, given the extra cost of transportation and a higher import price resulting from a slumping loonie. The industry sees real benefits for livestock producers. “Hopefully we will be able to stop importing soymeal, start paying in Canadian dollars, avoid currency fluctuations and pay less in transportation,” says Andrew Dickson, general manager of the Manitoba Pork Council. In return, Dickson says, soybean producers would gain from a large, stable market so close at hand.
Soybeans make up a significant part of hog producers’ feed requirements. According to livestock analyst Janet Honey, the Manitoba swine industry uses almost two million tonnes of feed a year. Rough estimates show soymeal represents over 10 per cent of that amount. The volume of feed consumed annually, which includes soymeal, would increase by 40 per cent if all the pigs produced in Manitoba were fed to slaughter weight instead of being exported as weanlings and feeders, Honey says. Soybeans are becoming a feed of choice for Manitoba swine producers because of their high meal and protein content. According to the Canadian Grain Commission, soybeans yield 80 per cent meal and 20 per cent oil when crushed, compared to 60 per cent meal and 40 per cent oil for canola. Soybeans also average 40 per cent protein content, compared to just 20 per cent for canola. “I would say 100 per cent of rations for pigs in Manitoba have soybean meal in them. Producers feed wheat and barContinued on page 30
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ley for energy and soybeans or canola for protein,” says Robyn Harte, a Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Development swine specialist. As soybean production increases, and as more producers turn to soymeal as a feedstuff, the need for more processing capacity in Western Canada becomes more acute. But what would it take for a major company to locate a soybean crushing plant here? Unfortunately, despite more than doubling its soybean acreage since 2011, Manitoba still lacks the critical mass needed for a major crusher, industry analysts say. “These plants need economies of scale to be competitive,” says Jonathon Driedger, a market analyst with FarmLink Marketing Solutions in Winnipeg. “We don’t have the kind of production that would come close to justifying the investment you would need for a competitive plant.” Chris Ferris, a market analyst with Informa Economics in Winnipeg, agrees. “At this point, I would say we’re probably not there yet,” says Ferris. “But if we keep expanding acres the way we are, I would see that it would probably make sense to throw in a crush plant here at some point in the future.” It’s a chicken-and-egg argument, according to Harte. Right now, the soybean acres in Manitoba aren’t enough to lure a large processor. “But unless you have a processing plant, what’s going to entice people to plant more soybeans? It’s like the snake eating its own tail,” Harte says. That raises a critical question: How many acres of soybeans would be needed to make building a crush plant in Western Canada worthwhile? This is where analysts hedge their bets. A recent presentation by Grain Farmers of Ontario noted “huge momentum shifts in seeded soybean acreage” in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. It cited reports suggesting that Western Canada’s growers could seed as much as five million acres of soybeans in the next five to 10 years, most of it genetically engineered. “With continuous improvements in genetics and production technology, Canada will continue to see increases in yields across the country in both non-GMO food grade soybeans and genetically engineered,” the report says. Ferris says he has heard Monsanto officials privately suggest seeded soybean acreage in Western Canada could hit six to eight million acres in the next 10 years. Assuming that’s possible (and it’s a big “if” because soybeans are still a high-risk crop in Western Canada), would that be enough to entice a multinational giant such as ADM to locate a soybean crushing plant in the West? Or would small, locally owned plants be better suited to the task? Ferris says a lot depends on technology. Small plants are cheaper to run and can break even on relatively low volumes, while large plants in the U.S. and Ontario require major volumes to be profitable. Also, crushers need to be competitive and willing to pay the necessary price to attract product. A low Canadian dollar, which favours exports, could encourage soybean growers to sell to a more financially attractive U.S. market instead of marketing their beans locally. “We’re not going to pay more for Manitoba stuff if we can get it cheaper from the U.S.,” says Dickson. Ferris suggests one solution could be to convert an existing canola crushing plant into a swing plant which could also process soybeans. In that way, crushers can accept soybeans when market conditions are favourable for them. The rest of the time Soybean Guide, February 2015
they could concentrate on canola. But, again, it depends on the technology. Ferris says swing plants work best when designed to operate that way from the start. Retrofitting a canola plant to also accommodate soybeans is more difficult. In the meantime, it appears Canada will continue to be more of a soybean exporter than a user. According to Grain Farmers of Ontario, soybeans are the third-largest agri-food export in Canada, totalling nearly 3.5 million tonnes in 2013 for a value of $2.1 billion. Canada exports soybeans to over 50 countries. The U.S. is the biggest customer, followed closely by China. The Netherlands and Japan follow. It’s difficult to say where soybeans from Manitoba end up. Driedger says growers used to sell to elevators in northern U.S. states. They still do. But major grain companies now report that higher soybean volumes resulting from expanding acreages enable them to assemble 100-car train units to ship to Vancouver. That makes Asia a likely market. However, there’s still a chance the livestock industry might become a catalyst for processing more soybeans at home. Hog producers are slowly beginning to rebuild their herds after several years of depressed prices and a recent outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). More pigs requiring more soybeans could encourage producers to grow their own beans and have them crushed locally. “If you saw a meaningful ramp up in those herds over the course of a couple of years,” Driedger says, “that could increase the demand for soymeal.” SG
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Soybean guide
Grain analyzer gets attention With more soybeans and corn stored on farm, this new analyzer is paying off By Ralph Pearce, CG Production Editor
I
t’s easy to see why grain analyzers and testers are garnering more attention in ag circles, from the farm all the way up through elevators and even at large-scale processors. With tighter margins and a greater focus on finding efficiencies, but also with more focus on traceability, more interest in new traits, and more markets for end uses that have very specific quality parameters, it all adds up to more potential payback for knowing exactly what you’ve got. In 2014, for instance, moisture became the bane of many corn growers, particularly at harvest, with plenty of accounts of corn arriving at local elevators and getting tested at 30 per cent or more before heading into the dryer. Grain analyzers won’t tell farmers anything they didn’t already know about moisture levels above 30 per cent. But in the chase for margins, a little can go a long way, says John Lounsberry of Champion Industrial Equipment in Cornwall, Ont. Lounsberry is an ag specialist, and sees the need for more precise grain analysis, primarily from a moisture perspective, although the future for grain analysis is anything but limited. “If you’re a grain buyer in the winter months — spring and fall, too — to get your tester to work, you do it usually by warming it up in a microwave, on a hot
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plate or just letting it sit out,” says Lounsberry. “But all the time, moisture is leaving the product, and that moisture is the customer’s money — it’s still in your sample.” For the sake of argument, continues Lounsberr y, say the moisture loss amounts to just 0.5 per cent, which he agrees doesn’t sound like a lot. However, when that percentage is translated throughout an entire truckload sitting at the elevator, it’s money out of someone’s pocket. And if the moisture level is too high — as was often the case with harvested corn in late 2014 — some elevators or processors would send truckloads back to the farm, at the farmer’s expense. One of the units that Lounsberry sells is the Dickey-john GAC 2500 grain analyzer, a self-contained system that provides precise moisture and density results at operating temperatures of -20 to 45 C. It has a touch screen and a USB port for portable data storage and it keeps a running Excel spreadsheet, enabling a buyer to enter the ticket number on the sample. The farmer can also enter the part of a field where the load or the sample originated, and it can be interfaced with a computer. Although corn was the hot topic for late 2014, Lounsberry assures growers and elevator operators alike that the GAC unit can perform the same pre-
cision analysis on all grains and oilseeds, including wheat/cereals and soybeans. One other advantage is that it can analyze or measure ice as water — up to 19 per cent moisture. It’s also certified by the National Type Evaluation Program (NTEP), administered by the National Conference on Weights and Measures. More use, more value The 2014 growing season marked the first year for sales in Canada for the GAC 2500, and sales were shared almost equally among growers and elevators. Lounsberry suggests that since commodity prices are expected to remain low for the foreseeable future, it’s possible that more farmers might be in the market for such analyzers as a means of reducing operating costs and maximizing revenues. The University of Guelph was the first customer to purchase a GAC 2500 in Ontario. Students are doing their plot work and wanted to keep their own data files on their results. Some growers may view grain analysis that is specific and accurate as the primary value of such technology. And on a face value, that’s very true. But the term “value” is getting more exposure, both as commodity prices are pulling back from the dizzying heights of early to late 2013, and as processors and manufacturers continue to find new uses, thereby requiring stricter quality specifications. It isn’t just money lost in dried corn or a rejected load, it’s the value of that time on the road driving that truck back home. Farmers are getting better at placing a value on their time, but it’s still a part of their on-farm management regimen that is seldom recognized. “That’s usually what I point out — the costs — and they realize that overdrying can cost them a lot,” says Lounsberry. “For one thing, the elevator will buy that moisture, and you will use a lot of propane, and that’s a real cost. And the other way is underdrying where the elevator may charge you or possibly send you back.” As for other functions, the GAC 2500 Soybean Guide, February 2015
is capable of performing grading on grains, specifically bushel weight densities. “We work with Canadian Grain Commission standards, and this year (2014) has been a particularly critical year for grain grading, and I was told that it’s the difference between making money and not,” states Lounsberry. “Your value drops as you go down the chart. The growers say they can take a hit going from Grade 2 to Grade 3, and that’s not so bad. But not from Grade 3 to Grade 4.” The technology also has its applications with larger farming operations that have followed the trend of the past five years that has seen an increase in the construction of on-farm storage. At the time, the word from engineers and extension personnel was that farmers must be extra cautious about monitoring and managing their stored grains, and that part of what elevators charge for storage includes all of the risk and liability that goes with that service. When the grain is stored on a farm, that liability shifts back to the farmer, meaning farmes need to ensure their quality is maintained. And a grain analyzer can go a long way to providing more information about the crop that’s in storage. Upgrades or up-scale Unlike a lot of other pieces of “precision ag” systems and equipment that are purchased for on-farm usage, grain analyzers, at least the GAC 2500, aren’t prone to upgrades or redesigns. These units won’t be upgraded in a year or two or even three years, but will be in the form of software enhancements, and those are provided as part of the purchase. “There are what I refer to as clear leaps in technology,” says
Soybean Guide, February 2015
Lounsberry. “And there’s a fair gap between the last analyzer, which was on the market for more than 10 years. But this is a clear leap forward and I think the manufacturer is going to stay with this approach to the technology, and they may improve some of its operation, but basically it’s going to be something in the same nature of the current technology.” It’s the type of precision that the GAC unit provides — plus its ease of operations — that makes it as popular as it’s become with farmers, elevators and large-scale processors. If more precision and detail are required, Lounsberry points to the InstaLab 700 NIR — also manufactured by Dickey-john — for measuring higher-value traits and properties. This particular unit is built for crushers or processors with the goal of selling to higher-value buyers and food manufacturers — businesses that are looking for more qualityrelated information on protein, fat or oil constituents. SG
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Soybean guide
It’s time to demand more individualized agronomic help and product support from your input suppliers By Ralph Pearce, CG Production Editor
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Need to know W
alking around the grounds of Canada’s Outdoor Farm Show in 2014, one of the messages that was shared among dealers and company representatives was this notion that farmers are looking for a more focused approach to boosting production and following practices that are more sustainable. One theme that was touched on repeatedly was that the days are long gone of large groups of growers attending launches and meetings to hear about “the latest, greatest” new seed lines. Welcome to the era of more individualized dealings. It wasn’t a revolutionary concept because it’s not as though dealers, agronomists and farmers were loathe to work individually in the past. There has always been a united goal of driving yield and helping the farmer succeed. After all, success of one usually translates into success for the other. Yet something in the past couple of seasons has changed in terms of the approach of dealers, retailers and company sales representatives. Perhaps 20 years ago the focus was often on “the New” as opposed to whether a variety, new active ingredient or tillage implement was in line with any one farmer’s management practices. In fact, in the case of varieties and hybrids, the breeding and research pipeline has done such a tremendous job that the sector is approaching a level of parity that in the past was unheard of. Today there are very few of one company’s hybrids or varieties that completely outclass those of another — the playing field is becoming level. The biggest change is the degree of complexity that has become standard operating procedure in farming today. It’s not that it’s been a sudden departure from regional promotion of one hybrid or vari-
ety. According to many company representatives, agronomists, dealers and retailers, that process has been unfolding for at least five years, and some might say longer than that. But it’s the layers of information — the maps, the fertilizer plans, the cropping plans, the increasing attention to soil health issues, crop protection principles, the advent of complex machinery and technology systems — that have changed the way farmers are farming. And that’s changing the way the agrimarketing sector is dealing with farmers. A matter of efficiency When you ask Wayne Black how he views this shift, he likens it to advances in television technology. As seed sales and production specialist for Devolder Farms of Dover Centre, Ont., near Chatham, Black started his career with First Line Seeds in Guelph, and remembers the mass-appeal approach of selling one or two varieties to farmers within a large geographic area. He compares that practice of the 1970s and ’80s to the days of the black-and-white television — everyone had one of those at least. By the 1990s, the varieties and hybrids were more technologically advanced, particularly with the introduction of Bt corn hybrids and glyphosate-tolerant soybeans. Growers could also target individual fields with those technologies. Enter the era of the colour television. “What we’ve got today is that we’ve been able to pull that down into a highdefinition TV, to be able to sit down with a grower and say, ‘You have this 50-acre field, and on this particular section of Continued on page 36
Soybean Guide, February 2015
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your 50-acre field, you’re going to plant at a certain population and you’re going to plant this variety’,” says Black. Of course, the technologies by which seed can be planted, measured (variable rate), fertilized (split applications), tested for nutrient levels or protected against disease, pests and weeds have all changed as well. All of these things are happening with a narrowed focus on a much smaller scale, such as just one part of a field instead of the whole farm as in the 1970s. There’s more information to share and to co-ordinate, says Black, with greater specificity and a broader capacity for capturing data points and details.
It’s not just the variety or the hybrid that’s central to crop production. All of the parameters, which might not have been so accurately accounted for 30 and 40 years ago, are being precisely managed today, or can be. In fact, in his televison analogy, Black sees going a step further to a three-dimensional, flatscreen colour TV. It’s not so much a different approach, says Black, as it is learning to use different tools with a clearer set of goals. It’s moving from managing a 50-acre portion of a field to a 50-square-foot parcel. It’s not there yet, but it’s getting to that point. “We’re closing in on turning Precision Agriculture into Decision Agriculture,” Black says.
The need for technology Asked if he ever sees some level of pushback, Black concedes that a technology or a new concept advances only as far as individual farmers want to incorporate it. Looking back at the early days of GPSbased technology, we can see how combines were outfitted with yield monitors to mark the beginning of that trend, and the early adapters were the ones to lead it forward. But it took time for “everyone” to join that wave. When variable-rate technology (VRT) was introduced a couple of years later, there wasn’t the same eagerness to find the early adapters — and for two reasons. One, they were still engrossed in learning and sharing the yield monitor wave. And
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two, VRT was, in many ways, a step up from yield monitors and maps. It’s taken the industry more than 15 years to reach the level where VRT is beginning to show the same value as yield monitors in the late 1990s. That, says Black, is where there is a shift in the practical side of farming. The technology has become so advanced, in concert with a sharpened focus on agronomics, that farmers are increasingly relying on professional help to make the most of maps and data points and the products of advanced breeding. “Today we’re creating more accurate yield maps, and growers are either doing it themselves, or they’re handing them off to somebody else to overlay with other maps they currently have from their farm operation, to start the move towards a prescription on an individual farm basis,” notes Black. One of the advances that’s enabling efficiencies, and that “precision to decision” approach, is the speed with which information can be transferred. Black states in many cases, by the time a dealer drives out to the grower’s house or field, that grower can have the
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data on their desktop computer or mobile device, and have it analyzed before the dealer can pick up the phone to call the grower and set up a face-to-face meeting. It doesn’t always happen that way but that’s the concept that’s in development right now. “It’s recognizing what we’ve done in the past but not dwelling on it, and being open to what the future provides,” says Black, adding that people within agriculture will have to change as the technology changes with it. “And it’s the same with the growers — some of the growers who are adopting this technology are in their 20s and 30s — some of them are also in their 50s and 60s.” A difference among generations That age factor and the ability to incorporate the changing technology are also front-of-mind for Brandon Yott, product development and marketing specialist with the Agromart Group, based at Belton, Ont., north of London. Yott points to the growing concerns surrounding retirement-age professionals in the agri-marketing sector and believes that’s also influencing how technology is adopted and how information is interpreted and utilized. In the past, it was easier to train a relatively younger workforce coming out of university and entering the agri-food industry. But the prescriptive approach requires more knowledge, including historical references, and not just of the farmer’s field, but of a particular variety’s lineage or its past performance. Yott doesn’t want to discriminate on age, but the fact remains: older dealers, agronomists or sales representatives have that long-term insight through sheer repetition and years of experience. Yet all of that is changing as the old guard enters retirement age, leaving this increasingly complex relationship to a younger cohort. “You already have this ‘new worker’ shortage, and unfortunately in our industry, it’s hard to bring in outside labour,” says Yott, adding that such individuals may not have the same awareness of the market or growing conditions. “If they’re from outside of the farm, the learning curve to get into the seed industry is phenomenal. Your agronomic information and the genetics have to come to a whole new level, and more information is needed to help sell a specific variety on a producer’s farm.” In any industry, it can take someone new to the job as much as a year before they’re really up-to-speed with that particular business or that industry, even with a core set of competencies or skills. Yott contends that in agriculture, that process can take twice as long. What complicates matters even further is the depth of information that farmers are dealing with. Yott echoes Black’s contention about the complexities of change — of planting multiple hybrids on a planter or using fewer nutrients or targeting them to a specific region of a field. Yott relates a statement from a dealer he knows who said that in the past farmers came to them for information; now they’re coming to them with information. And they want help sorting through data points, coloured maps, soil test scores, digesting that information and finding those few nuggets they can use to drive production in a sustainable manner. “If Ontario’s average was 150 bushels for corn, there are a lot of hybrids that can get you there without any issues,” says Yott. “If you want to go to that 300-bushel level, well, now you need to reach that top end, and there’s a whole bunch of factors that are coming together. And to try saying, ‘Let’s look at it at a Continued on page 38
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much more prescription-based, field level-based perspective, with precision planting, prescription nutrition, soil types varying across your field’ — they’re all leading to this new world of what’s right for my field, and sub-field, as opposed to what’s the best hybrid from Windsor to Ottawa.” Yott says he often links this notion to that of investing or insurance, where diversity and recognizing certain conditions are key to reducing risk and maximizing performance. Maybe 2015 is shaping up to be a dry year. If so, there are some genetics that are going to perform better under dry conditions. “The more specific you can tailor that variety mix to your specific field and put in different options in there, you’re spreading out that risk,” says Yott.
the overall value of the spend instead of seeing only the negative connotation. “A lot of us aren’t looking at cost per acre anymore but opportunity per acre, and asking: ‘What’s the top end?’ or ‘How many bushels per thousand plants?’” poses Yott. “It’s not just how much did it cost, it’s determining the value of that top-end. And if I can invest a dollar more, can I get three dollars back? If I can do that, then it’s a good investment. That’s not always about cost as much as opportunity.” Some just want results For all of these advances, Brian Woolley contends that there are other considerations to be made to the prescr iptive — or decision-or iented approach of today. Woolley spent years on the crop protection side. As an agronomic sales representative with Syngenta
In the past, farmers went to their suppliers “for” information. Now they go “with” information. That makes it a whole new world Changing attitudes Yott also sees a trend or a streamlining effect taking shape — one where there used to be four or five types of growers, including so-called hand-wringers or those who wanted only the newest technology. Now, he says, conditions in agriculture are causing a kind of distillation down to two basic approaches. The first is made up of those growers who listen to the likes of Dr. Fred Below from the University of Illinois, who advocates investing in production through variety selection, fertility plans and timely applications. The second is that segment who want the best price, whether they have a consulting agronomist to help them with their cropping plan, or they’ve done their own work and are confident they can bring the crop along themselves. “And it’s not young versus old, it’s not big versus small, it’s really ‘we’re going to spend our way to reach the top end,’ or ‘we’re going to try to save our way,’” says Yott. “They can be quite different in mindset when they’re looking at that value piece or that agronomic and solutions approach.” It’s also a matter of wording: sometimes inputs, equipment — even the seed — need to be regarded as an investment versus only being a cost. Look at 38
Canada, he’s had to immerse himself in the seed side of the agri-marketing sphere. And for all of the opportunities that the technology and research are pointing to for farmers, he concedes there are those who just look at the latest results from either the provincial performance trials or a company’s catalogue, and default to what they want. “It comes down to the conversation with the grower, and let’s drill down to what the grower needs and wants, and what’s best for that farm,” says Woolley. “Those are the conversations we want to have. I don’t think this (prescriptive approach) is all that novel an idea, it’s more a case of maybe the terms are new, and they envelop a lot of what’s going on in agriculture today, where we have a focus on the soil, a more prescriptive fertilizer blend, populations or row width. There’s much more to it than just selecting the hybrid or the variety.” Woolley also agrees that the days of “mass appeal” product launches are a thing of the past, and Syngenta is a perfect example. Years ago, the seed division — NK Seeds — was based north of London while crop protection products came out of the Honeywood Farm near Plattsville, and product launches at either location were treated separately. Today, the two research facilities operate in concert.
“We don’t have these big launch days, and when we do bring growers to a plot, we don’t just have one or two varieties at these plots. We have a myriad of selections, and we don’t talk solely about the hybrid or the variety,” says Woolley. “A lot of the time, we’re joining that with a discussion about fungicides or row width or population, and really drilling down on the agronomics of a variety or hybrid.” Even in discussions about the company’s plots, the focus isn’t always about yield. Instead, it’s about working behind the scenes on improving conditions in the field, to figure out the best approach before reaching the point of talking about the variety with growers and dealers. There’s more information involved and more time spent in discussion with more people, be it sales reps or biologists, with everyone working together on a prescriptive approach that really helps the grower. Looking to the future, Woolley believes the industry will see much the same pattern of “introduction” followed by “familiarization/incorporation” that has come with GPS and other equipment trends. The same was the case for Bt corn hybrids and glyphosate-tolerant soybean varieties, where introduction has given way to familiarity and maximizing performance. He says we’ll keep seeing more varieties and hybrids being launched, followed by a learning curve with their uses, and then the phase where growers learn to manipulate the many different parameters to improve production. An example of this is seeing the rise of fungicides as growth promoters in corn and wheat. Yes, they do a very good job in protecting against diseases, but the delayed maturity benefit has only come to light in the last five to eight years, and there’s an ongoing learning curve associated with that practice (including the potential for the development of resistance and new active ingredients). “If you get the chance to sit down with the grower and talk varieties and hybrids, there’s far more to what we’re talking about,” says Woolley. “And more growers are becoming in tune with what they need. They’re getting their soils analyzed or working with a consultant to really understand the potential response in their fields to what they can do with herbicide, seed, in-season protection and micronutrients.” SG Soybean Guide, February 2015
Soybean guide
For soybeans to take over in the West, they’ll need to nudge pulses aside.
Taking pulse P
ulses are among Canada’s crop success stories, with strong agronomics and dynamite market opportunities. But a new challenger is trying to win acres away from pulses, and yes, that challenge is extremely well established in other parts of North America and around the globe, which means this might become an interesting family fight. But the pulse industry is confident it has what it takes to hold on to its piece of the pie. Although soybeans might be competing with pulses for acreage, their food use is not at all the same. And that makes all the difference in the world, according to marketers. Pulse crops hit the ground running in the 1970s. They filled a need among farmers for a marketable crop that, when added to the farm rotation, also helped in the battle against weeds, disease and pests. Like soybeans, pulses are legumes, and farmers appreciated their ability to fix nitrogen. By 1995, some 2.5 million acres of dry beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were being seeded. Last year, the land seeded to all pulses and special crops in Canada reached 8.5 million acres, or about 13 per cent of total seeded acreage. “We believe there’s room for pulses,” says Carl Potts, executive director of Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, and he points to expected strong sales growth owing to consumers interested in healthy foods. Potts’s organization is fixing its sights on new markets and new uses for pulses in a bid to expand the market base and reach the potential of 25 per cent of Canadian crop acreage. Canada ships pulses to almost 150 countries, but a small few (India, China, Bangladesh) account for a very large share. Gord Bacon is chief executive officer of Pulse Canada, and as he sees it, we’ve just started to scratch the surface of all that pulses can be. “Our traditional markets for pulses and traditional forms of consumption are of huge importance to farmers and the rest of the Canadian pulse industry,” says Bacon. “Part of our focus is on improving efficiencies in the system — making sure that what we do now, we do really well.” Bacon says tackling transportation issues is one example of how Pulse Canada will continue to get involved in activities and partnerships that assist the core marketing work headed up by Canada’s farmers, processors and exporters. Through the Canadian Special Crops Association, Pulse Canada aims to address the significant transportation challenges that pulses, like other crops, experienced this past year by monitoring and measuring system performance and improving the level of service. The federal government is reviewing the national Transportation Act, and pulse associations are involved. But the focus that really lights a fire under Pulse Canada these days is food product innovation. Bacon says this entails looking at pulses from the perspective of both what the consumer wants and what the consumer needs. Pulses have the science to achieve breakthroughs in nutrition, blood sugar health, allergenicity, and the environmental sustainability of food products. Soybean Guide, February 2015
These farmers say, don’t bet on it By Pat Keena Pulses are showing up in all kinds of foods, and that’s one reason why acreage is set to grow. In 2012, Bacon says, 304 new food products were launched in Canada and the U.S. that contained pulses, either in whole or in fractions or distillates. In 2013, there were 709 new pulse products, and the number is expected to show another increase when 2014 numbers are released. Health Canada is said to be on the verge of approving a health claim linking pulse foods to reduced heart disease and diabetes. All of this is very exciting as the pulse industry readies itself for the United Nations International Year of Pulses in 2016. Still, Pulse Canada says it isn’t in competition with soybeans, and Bacon says co-operation between the two crops will yield benefits for both, so when Soy Canada, the new national association dedicated to soybeans, was announced in September 2014, Manitoba Pulse Growers joined its board.
“We believe there’s room for pulses to take 25 per cent or more of Canada’s total seeded acreage.” — Carl Potts, Saskatchewan Pulse Growers Pulse research is trying to stay ahead of the curve so pulses continue to be the crop of choice. Dr. Sabine Banniza at the University of Saskatchewan notes that researchers have been effective in dealing with canopy diseases, such as ascochyta blight in chickpeas and lentils, as well as anthracnose in lentils. Research is also looking at solving stemphylium blight in lentils by exploring a wild relative and understanding how its resistance genes might be easily moved into cultivated varieties. Banniza says researchers are also trying to create a better defence against root rot in peas and lentils. Once infected, there is nothing that can be done for the crops, nor can current seed treatments prevent infection. Perhaps not coincidentally, regions of southeastern Saskatchewan have seen more acres turned over to soybeans. The same is true in southwestern Manitoba where more soybeans are being seeded because of earlier varieties. Ontario remains Canada’s largest soybean producer but in 2014 Manitoba’s production grew to 18 per cent of the total. But Canada’s buyers continue to be positive about pulses. Margaret Hughes, co-owner of Best Cooking Pulses, with plants in Portage la Prairie and Regina, says pulses are showing up in more and more cereals, baked goods and pasta. Pulses are also launching in grain-free pet foods with significant success. “Funding from the Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Alberta Pulse Growers, in concert with the Canadian government, has increased research into pulses,” Hughes says. “Pulse Canada now has the marketing ammunition it needs to promote pulses throughout the Canadian food industry.” SG 39
WHO’S THE BOSS? YOU’RE THE BOSS. They’re your fields, your crops and your business. So when it’s time to protect your soybeans, you want to have control. That’s why DuPont created Freestyle herbicide. It makes early-season weed control simple, effective and flexible. Mix it with your glyphosate of choice in GT soybeans for a wider application window and better residual control on tough grass and broadleaf weeds. Or use Freestyle in your IP soybeans for control of a broader spectrum of weeds, including grasses and key broadleaf weeds like velvetleaf and nightshade. Show weeds you’re the boss with Freestyle herbicide. Freestyle herbicide. More flexibility. More control. Questions? For more information, please contact your retailer, call your local DuPont rep or the DuPont FarmCare Support Centre at 1-800-667-3925 or visit freestyle.dupont.ca. TM
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As with all crop protection products, read and follow label instructions carefully. The DuPont Oval Logo, DuPont , The miracles of science , FarmCare® and Freestyle are trademarks or registered trademarks of E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company. E. I. du Pont Canada Company is a licensee. Member of CropLife Canada. © Copyright 2015 E. I. du Pont Canada Company. All rights reserved. TM
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