Year 2 of the Ukraine War Is Going to Get Scary

I don’t think year two is going to be so easy.

As we approach the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine — and the ferocious Ukrainian response backed by a U.S.-led Western coalition — the following question urgently needs answering: How is it that on Feb. 23, 2022, virtually no one in America was arguing that it was in our core national interest to enter into an indirect war with Russia to stop it from overrunning Ukraine, a country most Americans couldn’t find on a map in 10 tries? And yet now, nearly a year later, polls show solid (though slightly shrinking) American majorities for backing Ukraine with arms and aid, even though this risks a direct conflict with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

That’s a head-snapping shift in U.S. public opinion. Surely it’s partly explicable by the fact that no U.S. combat forces are in Ukraine, so it feels as if all that we’re risking, for now, is arms and treasure — while the full brunt of the war is borne by Ukrainians.

But there is another explanation, even if it’s one that most Americans might not be able to articulate and many might only reluctantly agree with.

They know at some deep level that the world we live in today is tilted the way it is because of American power. That doesn’t mean we have always used our power wisely, nor could we have succeeded without allies. But to the extent that we have used our power wisely and in concert with our allies, we have built and protected a liberal world order since 1945, which has been hugely in our interest — economically and geopolitically.

Upholding this liberal order is the underlying logic that brought the United States and its NATO allies to help Ukraine reverse Putin’s “marry me or I’ll kill you” invasion — the first such onslaught by one country in Europe against another since the end of World War II.

Now the bad news. For the first year of this war, the United States and its allies have had it relatively easy. We could send arms, aid and intelligence — as well as impose sanctions on Moscow — and the Ukrainians would do the rest, ravaging Putin’s army and pushing his forces back into Eastern Ukraine.

Putin, it’s now clear, has decided to double down, mobilizing in recent months possibly as many as 500,000 fresh soldiers for a new push on the war’s first anniversary. Mass matters in war — even if that mass contains a large number of mercenaries, convicts and untrained conscripts.

This is going to get scary. And because we have had nearly a generation without a Great Power war, a lot of people have forgotten what made this long era of Great Power peace possible.

While I argued in my 1999 book “The Lexus and the Olive Tree” that the massive explosion of global commerce, trade and connectivity played a major role in this unusually peaceful era, I also argued that “the hidden hand of the market will never work without a hidden fist — McDonald’s cannot flourish without McDonnell Douglas, the builder of the F-15.” Somebody needs to keep the order and enforce the rules.

That has been the United States, and I believe that role is going to be tested now more than any time since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. Are we still up for it?

There is an important new book that puts this challenge in a larger historical context. In “The Ghost at the Feast: America and the Collapse of World Order, 1900-1941,”

Brookings Institution historian Robert Kagan argues that whatever isolationist twitches Americans may have, the fact is that, for the past century-plus, a majority of them have supported using U.S. power to shape a liberal world order that kept the world tilted toward open political systems and open markets in more places in more ways on more days — enough to keep the world from becoming a Hobbesian jungle.

I called Kagan and asked him why he sees the Ukraine war not as something that we’ve stumbled into but rather the natural extension of this century-long arc of U.S. foreign policy that he’s been writing about. Kagan’s answers will comfort some and discomfort others, but it is important to have this discussion as we enter year two of this war.

“In my book,” Kagan said, “I quote from Franklin Roosevelt’s 1939 State of the Union address. At a time when American security was in no way threatened — Hitler had not yet invaded Poland and the fall of France was almost impossible to imagine — Roosevelt insisted there were nevertheless times ‘in the affairs of men when they must prepare to defend not their homes alone but the tenets of faith and humanity on which their churches, their governments and their very civilization are founded.’ In both world wars and throughout the Cold War, Americans acted not in immediate self-defense but to defend the liberal world against challenges from militaristic authoritarian governments, just as they are doing today in Ukraine.”

But why is backing Ukraine in this war not only in our strategic interest but also in line with our values?

“Americans continually struggle to reconcile contradictory interpretations of their interests — one focused on security of the homeland and one focused on defense of the liberal world beyond America’s shores,” he said. “The first conforms to Americans’ preference to be left alone and avoid the costs, responsibilities and moral burdens of exercising power abroad. The second reflects their anxieties as a liberal people about becoming what FDR called a ‘lone island’ in a sea of militarist dictatorships. The oscillation between these two perspectives has produced the recurring whiplash in U.S. foreign policy over the past century.”

International relations theorists, Kagan added, “have taught us to view ‘interests’ and ‘values’ as distinct, with the idea that for all nations ‘interests’ — meaning material concerns like security and economic well-being — necessarily take primacy over values. But this is not, in fact, how nations behave. Russia after the Cold War has enjoyed greater security on its western border than at practically any time in its history, even with NATO’s expansion. Yet Putin has been willing to make Russia less secure to fulfill traditional Russian great power ambitions which have more to do with honor and identity than with security.” The same seems to be true with President Xi Jinping of China when it comes to recovering Taiwan.

It is interesting to note, though, that a growing number of Republicans, at least in the House and on Fox News, don’t buy this argument, while a Democratic president and his Senate do. What gives?

“American foreign policy debates are never just about foreign policy,” Kagan answered. “The ‘isolationists’ in the 1930s were overwhelmingly Republicans. Their greatest fear, or so they claimed, was that FDR was leading the nation toward communism. In international affairs, therefore, they tended to be more sympathetic to the fascist powers than liberal Democrats.

They thought well of Mussolini, opposed aiding the Spanish Republicans against the fascist, Nazibacked Franco and regarded Hitler as a useful bulwark against the Soviet Union.

“So it’s not so surprising today that so many conservative Republicans have a soft spot for Putin, whom they see as a leader of the global anti-liberal crusade. Perhaps it is worth reminding Kevin McCarthy that the Republicans were destroyed politically by their opposition to World War II and were only able to resurrect themselves by electing an internationalist Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.”

There are also many voices on the left, though, who are legitimately asking: Is it really worth risking World War III to drive Russia all the way out of Eastern Ukraine? Haven’t we hurt Putin so badly by now that he won’t be trying something like Ukraine again soon? Time for a dirty deal?

Since I suspect that this question will be at the center of our foreign policy debate in 2023, I asked Kagan to kick it off.

“Any negotiation that leaves Russian forces in place on Ukrainian soil will only be a temporary truce before Putin’s next attempt,” he said. “Putin is in the process of completely militarizing Russian society, much as Stalin did during World War II. He is in it for the long haul, and he is counting on the United States and the West to grow weary at the prospect of a long conflict — as both the left and right isolationists at the Quincy Institute and in Congress have already indicated they are.

“That the United States is flawed and uses its power foolishly at times is not debatable. But if you cannot face squarely the question of what would happen in the world if the United States kept to itself, then you are not engaging these difficult questions seriously.”

By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN © 2023 The New York Times

PUZZLE NO. 903

HOW TO PLAY:

Fill in the grid so that every row, every column and every 3x3 box contains the numbers 1 through 9 only once.

Each 3x3 box is outlined with a darker line. You already have a few numbers to get you started.

Remember: you must not repeat the numbers 1 through 9 in the same line, column or 3x3 box.

PUZZLE NO. 904

8. Great Wall site 9. Mobile or biography starter

10. Ran

11. “Desire Under the ____”

19. Mare or hen

21. Footwear

22. Some animal feet

29. Deputy

Prepared a golf ball 33. Spotted beetle

HOW

Fill in the grid so that every row, every column and every 3x3 box contains the numbers 1 through 9 only once.

Each 3x3 box is outlined with a darker line.

You already have a few numbers to get you started.

ANSWER TO PUZZLE NO. 903

HOW TO PLAY:

Fill in the grid so that every row, every column and every 3x3 box contains the numbers 1 through 9 only once. Each 3x3 box is outlined with a darker line. You already have a few numbers to get you started. Remember: you must not repeat the numbers 1 through 9 in the same line, column or 3x3 box.

Remember: you must not repeat the numbers 1 through 9 in the same line, column or 3x3 box. Remember:

28. Cereal grass

52. Made cold 53. Put into service 54. Little songbird

55. Popular flower

56. Hairstyling help

1. Fire leftover

2. Deep sorrow

3. Take a wrong turn

4. Bagel seed

5. Well-built

6. Sailor’s landing

7. Branch of math

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(TR22-34) RESOLUTION AMENDING

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(TO22-09) ORDINANCE TO AMEND

CHAPTER 48 “ZONING” TO COMBINE TRANSITIONAL DISTRICTS; ELIMINATE SINGLE FAMILY AND TWO FAMILY RESIDENTIAL USE THEREIN; ALLOW FOR A TOWNHOUSE, APARTMENT AND CONDO OPTION AND ALLOW FOR EXPANDED LOT COVERAGE.

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The Proposed changes are intended to facilitate development of small residential projects on infill sites too small to support large commercial or mixed-use developments. Notable proposed changes include:

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State Of South Carolina In The Family Court

FIFTEENTH JUDICIAL CIRCUIT COUNTY OF HORRY | 2022-DR-

26-2446

Nur Abushakra Plaintiff, versus COMPLAINT

Yaser Mahmoud Elkhatib, Defendant

The Plaintiff would respectfully show unto this Honorable Court as follows:

1. The Plaintiff is a citizen and resident of the County of Horry, State of South Carolina and have been so for more than one (1) year prior to the filing of this action. Further, the parties’ minor child is a citizen and resident of Horry County, South Carolina for at least six (6) months prior to the filing of this action. The Defendant is a citizen and resident of the State of Virginia. Therefore, this Court has jurisdiction over the parties and the subject matter in this action and venue is proper herein.

2. The Plaintiff and Defendant were married on April 15, 2012 and were subsequently divorced in 2016 in Brunswick County, North Carolina. The parties have one (1) minor child, to-wit: MKE, age 8. No other children are now expected between the parties.

COUNT I

(Modification of Custody, Visitation & Child Support)

3. The Plaintiff would show that under the current Final Order that the Plaintiff registered in Horry County, South Carolina under cause number 2021-DR-261127, the parties entered into an Agreement that was approved on August 16, 2016, a copy of which is attached hereto.

4. The Plaintiff would further show that since the date of finalization, there have been material and substantial changes in circumstances to warrant a modification of both custody and visitation to the Defendant.

5. The Plaintiff would show that the Defendant has not seen or had contact with the minor child since March of 2016, some five (5) months prior the Agreement being finalized.

6. The Plaintiff would further show that the Defendant has voluntarily relocated to more than one location well outside of the State of North Carolina, putting himself geographically farther from the minor child, without consideration of her or his time with her.

7. The Plaintiff would show that after the Defendant’s relocation outside of the State of North Carolina, she and the minor child moved to Horry County, South

Carolina in 2019.

8. The Plaintiff would show that the Defendant is quite literally a stranger to the minor child; that he has voluntarily removed himself from her life and abandoned any responsibilities regarding the minor child as it pertains to decision making, day to day events and activities or any involvement in her life at all. The Plaintiff would further show that the current custodial arrangement is not in the minor child’s best interests because of the Defendant’s actions or lack thereof. Therefore, the Plaintiff requests that the terms of the parties’ Agreement be modified to reflect what is in the minor child’s best interests, that of sole custody to the Plaintiff and visitation at her discretion. She is making this request both pendente lite or permanently.

9. The Plaintiff would further show that it is not in the minor child’s best physical, emotional, or mental wellbeing to be required to operate under the current custodial and visitation arrangement, either in the Agreement or in practice, temporarily and on a permanent basis.

10. The Plaintiff would show that child support was ordered in the parties’ current Final Order of Five Hundred Dollars ($500.00) per month paid through the Clerk of Court’s office. The Plaintiff would show that the Defendant has never any child support pursuant to the Order. Therefore, he has a child support arrearage in the amount of Thirty-Seven Thousand Five Hundred Dollars ($37500.00) as of November 1, 2022.

11. The Plaintiff would respectfully request that the State Disbursement Unit transfer the child support obligation from North Carolina. The Plaintiff would further request that upon such transfer, a 02 account be opened placing the Defendant’s arrearage amount in such account and modifying the Defendant’s child support obligation such that he remits One Hundred Dollars ($100.00) per month toward the arrearage in addition to the ongoing monthly child support obligation of Five Hundred Dollars ($500.00). She makes this request both pendente lite and permanently.

COUNT II

(Restraining Orders)

12. The Plaintiff requests a restraining order that restrains the Defendant from coming about her or her family’s persons, bothering, harassing, contacting, or otherwise persecuting her at her home, place of employment, worship, or any other place and by any means, both pendente lite and permanently.

13. The Plaintiff requests that the Defendant be restrained from exposing the minor child to non-age-appropriate materials or mediums, any members of the opposite sex not related by blood or marriage on an overnight basis; abuse of alcohol or prescription drugs; use of illicit drugs; and violence, profanity, or immoral environments or conduct of any sort. She makes these requests both pendente lite and permanently.

COUNT III

(Obtaining a Passport)

14. The Plaintiff would show that the minor child has extensive, extended family that reside outside of the United States. The Plaintiff would further show that to date, she has not been permitted to obtain a passport for the minor child considering not having meaningful contact with the Defendant.

15. The Plaintiff would further show that the minor child’s great grandmother recently passed away in Israel and she was not able to travel overseas to meet her prior to her death due to Plaintiff’s inability to obtain a passport on her behalf. The Plaintiff would ask that she be allowed to obtain a passport for the minor child to travel overseas to meet her extended maternal relatives without the consent of or participation by the Defendant. She makes this request both pendente lite and permanently.

COUNT IV

(Attorney’s Fees)

16. The Plaintiff would show that based solely upon the Defendant’s actions and/or inactions, she has been forced to hire an attorney to protect her legal interests and those of the minor child by filing this action. The Plaintiff does not have funds to afford a sustained and protracted legal battle. She would therefore request that this Court require the Defendant to reimburse her for her attorney fees and costs in bringing this action, both pendente lite and permanently.

WHEREFORE, the Plaintiff prays that this Honorable Court inquire into this matter and that it issues Its Order granting unto her: a. Sole custody of the minor child; b. Visitation at the Plaintiff’s sole discretion; c. An order transferring the Defendant’s monthly child support obligation of Five Hundred Dollars ($500.00) to the State of South Carolina State Disbursement Unit; d. An order setting up a 02 account and placing the Defendant’s arrearage totaling ThirtySeven Thousand Five Hundred Dollars ($37500) into such account and requiring a monthly payment of One Hundred Dollars ($100.00) in addition to his ongoing monthly obligation; e. Restraining order as to harassment or contact and conduct around the minor child; f. An order allowing the Plaintiff to obtain a passport for the minor child without involvement or consent of the Defendant; g. Attorney fees; h. Discovery; and i. For such other and further relief as this Court may deem just and proper.

Respectfully Submitted,

Lisa M. Carver Attorney for Plaintiff 8203 Nigels Drive, Suite 201 Myrtle Beach, SC 29572 (843) 213-1576 Tel (843) 213-1588 Fax lisa@carverlawfirmllc.com

November 10, 2022

STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE FAMILY COURT

FIFTEENTH JUDICIAL CIRCUIT COUNTY OF HORRY | 2022-DR26-2446 Nur Abushakra Plaintiff, versus COMPLAINT

Yaser Mahmoud Elkhatib, Defendant

TO THE DEFENDANT ABOVENAMED: YASER MAHMOUD

ELKHATIB: YOU ARE HEREBY SUMMONED and required to answer the Complaint in this action, a copy of which is herewith served upon you, and to serve a copy of your Answer to the said Complaint on the Plaintiff’s attorney, Lisa M. Carver, Esq. at 8203 Nigels Drive, Suite 201, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina 29572 within thirty (30) days after the service hereof, exclusive of the day of such service, and if you fail to answer the Complaint within the time aforesaid, the Plaintiff in this action will apply to the Court for the relief demanded in the Complaint and judgment by default will be rendered against you for the relief demanded in the Complaint. Your Answer must be in writing and signed by you or by your attorney and you must state your address or the address of your attorney, if signed by your attorney.

STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE FAMILY COURT

FIFTEENTH JUDICIAL CIRCUIT

COUNTY OF HORRY | 2022-DR26-2446

Nur Abushakra Plaintiff, versus COMPLAINT

Yaser Mahmoud Elkhatib, Defendant

Pursuant to Rule 21 of the South

Carolina Rules for Family Court, the Plaintiff hereby moves for this Court’s Order granting her the following pendente lite relief: a. Sole custody; b. Visitation at the Plaintiff’s discretion; c. An order transferring child support from North Carolina to South Carolina with payments going through the State Disbursement Unit; d. An order recognizing the Defendant’s arrearage totaling Thirty-Seven Thousand Five Hundred Dollars ($37500.00), setting up an 02 account and requiring the Defendant to remit One Hundred Dollars ($100.00) per month toward this arrearage amount in addition to ongoing monthly child support; e. Restraining Orders as to harassment, contact and conduct around the minor child; f. Attorney’s Fees; and g. For such other and further relief as this Court deems just and proper.

NOTICE OF HEARING (to be completed by scheduling clerk only)

A HEARING HAS BEEN SET IN THIS MATTER ON THE 13th DAY OF MARCH, 2023, AT 10:30 am BEFORE THE HONORABLE Melissa Frazier IN FAMILY COURTROOM NUMBER TBD

Krystle Barnhill, Scheduling Clerk

MOTION OR RULE REQUEST (to be completed by moving party)

CAPTION: Nur Abushakra v. Yaser Mahmoud Elkhartib CASE NUMBER: 2022-DR-262446 DATE MOTION FILED: 11/14/22 MOVING ATTORNEY: Lisa M. Carver REPRESENTS: Plaintiff TELEPHONE: 8432131576 FAX: 8432131588

GUARDIAN AD LITEM: None

NATURE OF MOTION: Motion for Temporary Relief IF OTHER: ESTIMATED TIME NEEDED: 15 minutes

DATES

AVAILABLE: November 30; December NONE; January NONE; February 13, 21; March 13, 15-16, 20, 22, 29; April 10-12; May 1-5, 22-25; and June 1-3, 6-8, 13-15, 19-23, 26-30