How to Prepare for the 2012 Fantasy Football Draft

Jonathan Bales is the author of Fantasy Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft. He also runs the “Running the Numbers”blog at DallasCowboys.com and writes for Pro Football Focus, FF Today and RotoExperts. One of the most common mistakes I see in fantasy drafts is the selection of the “best player available.” Fantasy owners often try to maximize their projected points with each pick, but by doing so, they often fail to acquire optimal value throughout the course of the draft. A “Best Player Available” draft strategy is necessarily shortsighted; it involves no consideration of future picks. When N.F.L. general managers and coaches tell you they will pick the best player available, they’re often fibbing. Are the Indianapolis Colts going to select another quarterback next year with the first overall pick? Of course not, even if he’s the best available player. In reality, the top fantasy football owners employ a minimax draft strategy. Minimax involves bypassing players projected to score the most points for those who will “lose” the fewest points. Instead of envisioning each draft pick as gaining points, think of him as costing you points. If you choose player A, how many potential points must you forgo in relation to the selection of player B? Minimax draft strategy (which is also called ‘VBD,’ or value based drafting) is more overarching than “Best Player Available” and will produce a

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superior, well-rounded team. The primary reason minimax draft strategy works is that it automatically implements position scarcity into your draft philosophy. Your goal is no longer to acquire the most projected points, but to find the scarcest players at their respective positions; scarce players “lose” the least points. Minimax is the reason it’s acceptable to draft tight end Rob Gronkowski over receiver Andre Johnson in the second round this season. Gronkowski, a standout at his position, will probably score far more points than a second-tier tight end. Johnson, on the other hand, is more of a crapshoot. Using this philosophy as a foundation from which to draft, I submit to you my Ultimate 2012 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. Below, I’ll take you through four different stages of the draft, detailing the merits of various draft methods and potentially debunking others. Keep in mind that there are really no inherently “good” picks, so if I talk up a specific player (or knock another), it is really in relation to the round. Is Jamaal Charles a “good” pick in 2012? Well, not in the first round. But if he drops to the late third, sure. Now, without further ado… The First Round Each year, the first round consists of players who were statistical outliers from the previous season. These players probably scored more points than they “should have,” and are thus likely to regress

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in production. Although players like Arian Foster, LeSean McCoy and Ray Rice all possesses tremendous upside, they’re also expected to score points at an elite level. In relation to their draft slots, these players actually have limited ceilings. Foster, as the probable top pick in your league, can’t outperform his draft spot. Since fantasy owners have little to gain in maximizing upside in the first round, the goal should be to minimize downside. That is, draft the safest possible players early in the draft. Later in the draft is the time to take risks. Consistency

In writing my book, one of the major themes was position consistency, i.e. how much of a player’s performance, on average, carries over each year in relation to his position. As it turns out, tight ends are actually the most consistent position in fantasy football. Tight end fantasy points have a strength of correlation of 0.62 from year to year, meaning around 62% of their performance is repeatable and 38% regresses toward the mean. Quarterbacks aren’t far behind with a year-to-year correlation of around 0.60. Quarterback rushing yards are actually the most consistent stat in all of fantasy football. Cam Newton is viewed as a risky selection, and there’s no doubt he won’t repeat his 14 rushing touchdowns from 2011, but he’s

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probably a better bet to again surpass 700 rushing yards than you might think. Running backs check in at third in our consistency rankings with a year-to-year strength of correlation of about 0.48. Wide receivers are fourth at 0.42. Kickers have zero consistency from season to season, and defenses have next to none. Understanding these correlations can help you devise projections and select between players at different positions. Best Value in Round 1: Aaron Rodgers

Rodgers is currently being selected anywhere between fourth and sixth in most fantasy drafts. Even in one-quarterback leagues, he’s a steal. If your league starts two quarterbacks or awards six points for passing touchdowns, you can make a case for Rodgers in the top three selections. Remember, your goal in the first round is to acquire as close to guaranteed points as possible. It doesn’t get any safer than Rodgers — the most consistent player at the second-most consistent position. Worst Value in Round 1: Calvin Johnson

Like Rodgers, Johnson is getting selected between the fourth and sixth spots in a majority of drafts. Unlike Rodgers, he doesn’t belong there. I understand Megatron is a beast in a pass-first offense with a strong-armed quarterback, but he carries too much risk for a first-rounder. He plays the least-consistent skill position in

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fantasy football, and wide receivers can be taken out of games far easier than running backs. If you don’t think Johnson will have a safety over top of him almost all the time in 2012, you’re far too optimistic. Need more evidence Johnson shouldn’t be your pick in the first round? Here you go. . .

Above, I compared the 2011 final fantasy rankings at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions with their projected final rankings in 2012. My projections use a regression of stats based on position-wide consistency correlations; that is, I multiplied a player’s 2011 stats by the average strength of

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correlation of every relevant stat at each specific position. Thus, the projected rankings are in no way subjective. Comparing these projections to past results, youâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;ll find similar movement. You can see that, among these three positions, quarterbacks are by far the most consistent. The top five quarterbacks from last season are projected to move just a single spot in the final 2012 rankings. The elite running backs arenâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t far behind, projected to move just 1.4 spots each. Take a look at the elite wide receivers, however. Since wide receiver stats fluctuate so greatly, the premier wideouts are projected to move, on average, 5.6 spots in 2012. Thus, Calvin Johnson is probably more likely to finish seventh in wide receiver fantasy points than first.