NFL Review: Week 1
CLEVELAND – NOVEMBER 07: Running back Peyton Hillis #40 of the Cleveland Browns runs the ball by linebacker Jerod Mayo #51 of the New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns Stadium on November 7, 2010 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Image credit: Getty Images via @daylife)
The first week is a difficult for fans because it's hard to temper expectations based on just one game. Dallas Cowboys fans, for example, are jumping up and down, drinking the blue and silver Kool-Aid with lofty expectations of a playoff run and perhaps a Super Bowl appearance.
Meanwhile, New Orleans Saints fans are wondering how their team could lose to Washington and a rookie QB, thinking this could be a long season. It's hard to remember how long the NFL season is actually.
I always use the 2003 NFL season as an example. In Week 1 of 2003, the Buffalo Bills with Drew Bledsoe as their new QB routed the New England Patriots 31-0. Much of the national media jumped on the Bills' bandwagon following that dismantling of the Patriots and named them the best team in the AFC East and a potential Super Bowl contender.
The Patriots went on to lose just one other game that season on their way to their second Super Bowl win in three years. Buffalo, meanwhile, finished a disappointing 6-10. New England even beat the Bills 31-0 in the regular season finale.
A lot can change just week to week in the NFL, so there's no telling what will be different about the league come Week 17.
Obviously, you prefer to start the year with a win rather than a loss. Every win in the NFL should be considered precious. But, it's the wins at the end of the year that mean more.
– Fantasy football owners can fall into the same trap as die-hard fans, especially when that owner is also a die-hard fan. A player lights up Week 1, while another disappoints. So Player B gets dropped for Player A even though he probably shouldn't be.
Here's a list of players who had big first weeks that could be found on the waiver wire, but should be left there.
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Alfred Morris, RB, Redskins – Don't be fooled by a Mike Shanahan RB. Morris was impressive with 96 yards and
two TDs on 28 carries, but now that's he's found success chances are Shanahan will bury him. It's like Shanahan has a vendetta against fantasy football owners. He waits until his RB gets owned in enough leagues and then benches him. It's a nasty trend that makes Shanahan the most disliked coach in the league among fantasy circles.
Mark Sanchez, QB, Jets – Are you really ready to trust Sanchez? You know at some point he's going to be removed from the game when the Jets get into the red zone. There were several national media guys already complaining Tim Tebow didn't get into the game more even though Sanchez threw for 266 yards and three TDs with just one INT. It's bound to happen eventually.
Stephen Hill, WR, Jets – Hill is tied in directly to Sanchez. Yes he's a great deep threat, but he's still an unpolished rookie who will have more games with minimal yards and targets as opposed to Sunday's efforts when have had 84 yards and two TDs.
Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets – Am I putting too many Jets on this list? Perhaps, but I'm still not buying into this offense. Kerley had a receiving TD and a return TD. We all know how well scores in the return game can be, but Kerley is a deep threat who will not get a ton of red zone looks as the season progresses.
Heath Miller, TE, Steelers – Miller is a great security blanket for Ben Roethlisberger, but that's the problem. Miller is rarely relied upon to be more than just a security blanket. He has caught just two TD passes the last two seasons and will never pile up a lot of yardage. He had 51 yards Sunday night, which could be the norm. Touchdowns will be much more rare for him.
– On the other end, here's a list of guys who didn't perform well in Week 1 who should not be given up on yet. Note: I'm not listing guys who are owned in just about every league. No one is giving up on a guy like Greg Jennings after one week.
Peyton Hillis, RB, Chiefs – Hillis was figured out of the game plan in a hurry due to the Chiefs falling behind quickly. He ended up scoring just one point. But Hillis will be in line to be a TD vulture this season and looked great in the preseason. Some are alarmed by seeing Shaun Draughn getting a goal line carry ahead of Hillis. That carry came with 5 seconds left in the game when the outcome had already been decided. It won't be a trend.
Cedric Benson, RB, Packers – Benson had just 18 yards on nine carries, but don't drop him. The Packers are always going to throw more, but Benson was the only RB to get a carry for the Pack. And remember he was running against one of the league's best defenses in the 49ers. The Packers also got behind early and had to rely on the pass instead. Benson will get his down the road.
Titus Young, WR, Lions – It was a bad start to the regular season for Lions QB Matt Stafford, who threw three INTs. Young will be more productive than his 11 receiving yards and 14 rushing yards later in the year. Stafford will be more effective in more games than not and Young is a weapon the Lions want to utilize.
– One final list. Here's the guys who did shine in the opening week you should consider picking up if available:
C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills – Spiller is owned in just 69 percent of Yahoo leagues. He is owned in nearly every ESPN league, though. If you're in a Yahoo league and Spiller is on the waiver wire, hurry up and claim him. Fred Jackson's knee injury might sideline him for a few weeks, which gives Spiller a great chance to emerge as the No. 1 back in Buffalo after rushing for 169 yards and a TD in Week 1.
Kevin Ogletree, WR, Cowboys – Ogletree had his coming out party against the Giants on Wednesday, and don't expect his production to slip significantly. Remember, last season the Cowboys' top receiver ended up being Laurent Robinson who was their No. 3 guy. Miles Austin is injury prone and Dez Bryant is inconsistent. Tony Romo likes to work his slot receivers, making Ogletree a viable fantasy option.
Randall Cobb, WR, Packers – Cobb had a huge game in Week 1 of last season as well and then wasn't heard from again. I don't think he slips off this season. Cobb remains one of the league's best return men, but expect him to figure more into the Packers' passing game this season. If you're in a league getting points for return yards, Cobb is a must own.
Brandon LaFell, WR, Panthers – I won't be surprised if Brandon LaFell ends up being the Panthers' leading receiver this season ahead of Steve Smith. At the very least, LaFell should continue to be a nice second option across from Smith that Cam Newton can depend on. LaFell's 65 yards and a TD could be pretty normal for him this season.
– There were plenty of injuries right off the bat to open the season. Here's a list of guys to keep an eye on this week as you prepare your lineup.
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills – I mentioned Jackson above when referring to C.J. Spiller. Jackson sprained the lateral collateral ligament in his right knee after getting popped hard by Jets safety LaRon Landry. Jackson will have an MRI on Monday. He's likely to be limited at the very least, and as mentioned above, Spiller is set to really benefit from this. Spiller averaged 105 total yards per game after Jackson broke his right leg in Week 12 last season. This could be an opportunity for Spiller to establish himself even further.
Pierre Garcon, WR, Redskins – Garcon had a big 88-yard TD reception from Robert Griffin III on Sunday, giving him 109 yards on four receptions in the first quarter alone. However, he left the rest of the game with a foot injury. Garcon says the injury isn't significant and he will play, but why couldn't get back in the game Sunday? It's not like the Redskins had the win wrapped up in the first quarter. Monitor how much he practices this week.
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John Skelton, QB, Cardinals – Let's face it, chances are you're not starting either Skelton or Kevin Kolb unless you into a 20-team league and even then it's unlikely. Skelton was carted off the field with what the Cardinals are hoping is a high ankle sprain. The major significance here is Skelton seems to enjoy throwing to Larry Fitzgerald more than Kolb, who can't seem to get the ball down the field to Fitz. Kolb did lead a late TD drive, so the starting job could be him once again. The QB situation remains unsettled in Arizona, which is rough for Fitzgerald owners.
Jake Locker, QB, Titans – Locker suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder after making a tackle after he threw an interception on Sunday. Early indications are he's going to play through the should seperation. Locker had one of his better showings from an accuracy standpoint, but I'm not convinced that will be the norm. Matt Hasselbeck could be a solid option in deeper leagues if Locker can't go.
Rashad Jennings, RB, Jaguars – Jennings left midway through the game with a knee injury that didn't appear to be serious, however, Maurice Jones-Drew looked good once again handling full-time duties. Jennings role as a starter in Jacksonville is already over it would appear.
Devery Henderson, WR, Saints – Henderson suffered a concussion Sunday, which could mean more targets for fellow WR Lance Moore, who had a big game once Henderson left the game, ending up with 120 yards and a TD.
Daniel Thomas, RB, Dolphins – Thomas was quickly rule out of the game following a concussion he suffered against the Texans. If Thomas can't play Sunday, Reggie Bush should see an increase in touches
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