THE ROAD TO 2025
FAIR, INTELLIGENT & AFFORDABLE
The FIA advocates for sustainable mobility and consumer protection Connecting vehicles Ensuring smooth development of future car connectivity, while providing motorists with informed free choice
Safeguarding mobility Supporting efficient and affordable mobility for all
Increasing road safety Promoting 5-star drivers in 5-star cars on 5-star roads
Protecting the environment Offering intelligent mobility solutions that mitigate the impact of transportation on the environment
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Outlook on sustainable mobility - 2025 Tomorrow’s mobility will continue to be a key enabler for growth, social interaction and welfare. It requires ongoing behavioural changes, involving the progressive uptake of cleaner vehicles and fuels, seamless connections among transport modes and a better choice of mobility options. The future must be shaped with European citizens in mind, while safeguarding their right to social, economic and environmental welfare, social interaction and inclusion.
FIA Region I defends the interests of mobile consumers and actively contributes through its policy work and European projects to shaping tomorrow’s mobility. This document sets out the FIA’s mid-term vision catering to citizens’ mobility needs, aiming at better safety, energy efficiency, and sustainability. Based on societal trends, the FIA proposes steps to be taken today for a better mobility tomorrow.
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Societal trends Resource scarcity & environmental protection
Increased urbanisation & an ageing population
By 2030, the European Commission expects Europe to import around 70% of its energy needs, most of which will still be carbon-based. Increasing resource scarcity will gradually lead to higher costs for citizens, and potentially have a negative impact on society. Safeguarding mobility will be closely bound to technical improvements, such as the development of cleaner vehicle technologies and progressive connectivity deployment, allowing for major efficiency and safety gains. These improvements should also support the decarbonisation of transport and reduce the dependence on imported energy through the large-scale deployment of alternative propulsion systems and energy carriers. Transport – as one of the key drivers for energy demand – will need to respond imperatively to economic and societal changes. Only then, can transportation remain a key sustainability factor and enabler for European integration and growth.
According to the United Nations, the population in Europe’s cities grows by around 2 million inhabitants annually. Innovative approaches will be needed to tackle the pressure of increased mobility demands in limited space. With a third of the European citizens aged 65 and over by 2025, personal vehicle use is likely to decrease overall, while ubiquitous connectivity will enable a wider range of mobility possibilities, linking scheduled public transport, transport on demand, shared vehicle ownership and use, vehicle pooling and cycling.
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How should Europe reap the full potential of these trends? The European Union should use its potential to act as trendsetter by adapting mobility to an older, increasingly urbanised population. It should further develop its road safety leadership by setting ambitious reduction targets for road injuries The population in Europe’s cities and fatalities, taking grows by around new technologies and transport modes into account.
Europe should further invest in research and development, while ensuring that technology is deployed with citizens’ full buy-in. The increasing capacity to collect and process large amounts of data on traffic flow will empower inhabitants annually traffic managers Source: UN habitat to increase the efficiency of infrastructure In many ways, the A third of the European use. Access to European Union was and management citizens will be an early mover in of this large increasing the efficiency amount of of its transport systems, data allowing by fostering a mix of and over by 2025 for mobility public and private Source: European Commission management will transportation means be crucial. As and promoting alternatively fuelled vehicles. The most of this data will be generated from recorded future should aim for an integrated approach to personal mobility behaviour, data protection, full transportation, facilitated by increasing connectivity. informed consent and free sharing should be This would offer a variety of flexible mobility options: guaranteed for citizens. Only then can Europe fully private, on demand, shared ownership, public and benefit from technology’s untapped potential to semi-public transport. improve mobility.
2 million
aged 65
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Connecting vehicles Nearly all new cars sold worldwide by 2025 will offer wireless connectivity either by embedded, tethered or smartphone integration. Embedded solutions and smartphone integration will provide two different data entry points into vehicles. In 2025, ubiquitous connectivity will offer a practical overview of mobility options in urban areas, thus bridging the gap between different mobility types, facilitating vehicle co-ownership and co-modality, but also offering flexible booking and location services. A wide range of applications will be embedded in the vehicle, accessing and processing vehicle data. Predictive maintenance, remote diagnostics, ecodriving applications, systems to replace vignettes or toll gates will be among the services offered by manufacturers and other vendors. Widespread preventive vehicle maintenance will lead to fewer unexpected breakdowns.
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Nearly all new cars sold worldwide by 2025 will offer
wireless connectivity
either by embedded, tethered or smartphone integration Source: GSMA
Three consumer principles are essential to ensure citizens’ acceptance of these technologies: data protection, consumers’ free choice, and fair competition. Access to data will be guaranteed for all verified service providers, so that consumers can choose from a variety of safe product functionalities. Companies providing data services will need to gain clear user consent, as opposed to box ticking solutions, ensuring user understanding and informed consent.
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The FIA calls on decision-makers to: • Provide a framework, which safeguards user privacy and freedom of choice when deploying connectivity • Secure a level playing field, keeping users in control of their data, allowing them to get clear information about the data they generate and its use • Provide a framework that allows for healthy competition in the provision of safe applications, be it inside or outside the vehicle
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Safeguarding mobility By 2025, global oil consumption will reach an estimated 105 million barrels/day after a steady 1.2% yearly growth. Oil prices will increase as a result of scarcity and higher extraction costs to reach approximately 140 USD/barrel. While this may be partially offset by increasing vehicle efficiency, transport will still depend on oil for about 90% of its energy consumption. Sustainable biofuels and alternatively fuelled vehicles will become more competitive as a result of higher oil-derivate prices and lead to a progressive switch by consumers. Expenditure for transportation is presently estimated at 13% of households’ annual budgets. Since privately owned vehicles make-up about 74% of all trips, increases in fuel costs and taxes lead to a steady raise of households’ yearly transportation costs. The progressive switch to more efficient, greener mobility will be facilitated by the progressive rise of oil prices. In looking for alternative transport modes, attention should be given to each mode’s capacity and the need to finance new infrastructure and maintenance. Governments should encourage affordability by developing a level playing field for vehicles sales, repair, taxation systems and fuel costs.
73,7% 8,2% 7,9% 6,3% 1,4% 1,4% 0,6% Source: Eurostat 2012
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Urban and rural citizens alike will need affordable mobility options to optimise both their costs and efficiency. Car-sharing and carpooling around cities will cater to car mobility needs and allow citizens, including seniors, to remain mobile and contribute to society’s welfare. Public transport will be optimally used in cities and sufficient park-and-ride facilities should be offered for suburban citizens. Taxation will be invested in infrastructure according to the demand for each mode. Insurance costs should decrease to reflect an ever increasing level of road safety progressively introduced by technical progress. Incentive schemes will still play a crucial role in ensuring the deployment of alternatively fuelled vehicles, in light of the high uncertainty faced by consumers when purchasing such vehicles, such as re-sale value or the cost of fuel/electricity.
By
2025, global
oil consumption will reach an estimated
105
million barrels/day
after a steady
1.2%
yearly growth Source: Lukoil
The FIA calls on decision-makers to: • Safeguard the affordability of mobility for urban and rural citizens • Provide a stable environment for incentives (prices and tax rebates) for clean technologies and fuels, bearing in mind that personal mobility will remain a key welfare enabler • Limit the financial burden of car owners so as not to price out low income families • Examine the footprint of each mode so that its real cost and impact can be assessed
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Increasing road safety The progressive automation of vehicles will play a believed to be the root cause of 25% to 55% of key role in increasing road safety. Leading players fatal accidents across the world today. In so far in the automotive industry as full automation is not already forecast that vehicles yet available, technology will be highly automated will need to be designed by 2020 and driverless by to minimise distraction. 2025. As many accidents Devices that offer heads-up today are caused by human display and wearable options error, automation is expected would assist drivers rather to be a key tool to drastically than distract them, leading reduce fatalities. However, to less distraction while this calls for an in-depth driving. driverless reflection on the driver’s New safety challenges are role and liability in case of also likely to arise due to accidents. Automation and technological developments, driver assistance systems for example poor crash will progressively be deployed compatibility of heavier on specific stretches of road. versus lighter vehicles, the Source: BMW/Continental AG A similar roll out in complex flammability of certain fuels urban environments will take and more complicated postmore time and research. Technology will be tailored crash rescue processes. to the needs of an ageing society, allowing for safe European Member States will guarantee a basic personal mobility well into old age. knowledge of traffic rules for all citizens, as Driver distraction represents an increasing threat traditional driver training courses will no longer be to safety and it is becoming one of the leading sufficient to ensure the safety of all road users. causes for road casualties. In fact, inattention is
Leading players in the automotive industry forecast that vehicles will be
by
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2025
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For drivers, the use of new technologies should be progressively integrated into driver training and affordable courses should be widely available, to allow drivers to refresh their knowledge on a regular basis. By 2025, the life performance of highways will be optimised thanks to predictive maintenance schemes and consistent maintenance standards. As costs for sensors decrease, more stretches of road will be equipped with sensors to allow partial and full automation. The main road networks will progressively adapt to the deployment of intelligent transport systems, catering for safer and greener mobility. Traffic management systems anticipating traffic flow and integrating information about potential road obstructions will redirect traffic and help reduce congestion and avoid accidents. Harmonised road signs and well maintained surfaces will available throughout Europe.
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>2025
2020
2016
Fully Automated
Highly Automated
Partially Automated
Source: BMW/Continental AG
The FIA calls on decision-makers to: • Support research on vehicle automation, while actively focussing on developing the appropriate legal frameworks, seeking user acceptance and minimising driver distraction • Adapt type approval requirements to make beneficial active and passive safety systems mandatory and examine the crash compatibility of alternatively fuelled vehicles • Improve traffic participant behaviour by implementing lifelong traffic education policies, while integrating new technologies into driver training • Use road user generated taxes to upgrade and maintain a high quality road infrastructure and to support the deployment of cooperative systems at national and European levels |9
Protecting the environment Estimates on market penetration of ultra-low carbon vehicles by 2025 vary greatly between
7.7% and
54%
Source: Oliver Wyman / CE Delft
By
2030, the global
energy demand
will increase and the European Union is expected to import around
of its energy needs Source: European Commission
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70%
The European Commission has shown that transport is responsible for around one fifth of European greenhouse gas emissions today, while around two thirds of transport emissions come from road transport, including the transport of goods. As such, it is inevitable that the transport sector will also be targeted for a significant reduction in emissions by 2025. Estimates on market penetration of ultra-low carbon vehicles by 2025 vary greatly between 7.7% and 54%. The city of Munich has announced that they aim at fully greening their energy supply by 2025. The European Union foresees that electricity will play a significant role, providing around 65% of the energy supply for passenger cars and light duty vehicles by 2050. To make sure that electric vehicles contribute to decarbonising transport, power generation systems are expected to achieve a 57-65% level of decarbonisation by 2030. Even in 2050, oil will likely remain in the energy mix, and will primarily fuel parts of long distance passenger and freight transport. By 2025, a number of steps will allow for the effective tackling of harmful emissions, thus safeguarding air quality in cities.
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Ambitious targets will be set for the CO2 and pollutants arising from all vehicle types, which will significantly reduce transport emissions. As freight accounts for a large part of transport emissions, trucks’ efficiency will be optimised via improved technology and logistics. Clear communication on the actual environmental impact of each transport mode will be widely available and trusted. The emission levels of passenger vehicles will be evaluated by a more realistic test driving cycle for internal combustion engines. The test will more closely account for real-world vehicle emissions and will contribute to more reliable energy consumption information for consumers. Misleading green claims will become marginal as sufficient information about the merits of each mode become widely available and a car’s performance will be accurately labelled. Refuelling infrastructure and gas stations will provide sufficient information on fuel to car compatibility to allow for mainstream use of fuels with biofuel content. As the market for alternatively fuelled vehicles matures, refuelling infrastructure and stations will become more prevalent.
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The FIA calls on decision-makers to: • Introduce the new more realistic test driving cycle for passenger cars with internal combustion engines by 2017 and progressively include the consumption of vehicle accessories in the test • Give a stable framework for the development of truly clean and sustainable fuels, which will be needed to safeguard mobility and limit Europe’s energy import dependency • Set ambitious CO2 reduction targets for vehicles, to be achieved by 2025, to trigger more innovation and benefit society at large • Introduce a truly representative emissions and energy efficiency labelling for passengers cars, that will trigger better informed choices, and set up penalties for false advertising on a vehicle’s emissions | 11
The FIA’s vision on tomorrow’s mobility
Developing a future-proof model of transportation requires a multi-faceted approach to safeguard intelligent, affordable safe and clean mobility. It is very much within the reach of European policymakers to set the right course, to create a transport sector that will benefit all citizens. However, work must begin now to achieve a future where a variety of intelligent mobility services respecting citizens’ privacy and free choice will be available. By 2025, optimal connections between transport modes could also be guaranteed by technology, based on real-time traffic information. To achieve a high level of road safety, society will 12 |
need to optimise novice driver training, by extending the learning phase, while striving to provide lifelong traffic education for all citizens. Driver assistance technologies will support drivers in increasingly complex driving environments. Government should ensure that the transition to innovative mobility forms safeguards its overall affordability for rural and urban citizens. To achieve these goals, the EU must maximise the benefits of technological progress. This calls for a dedicated strategy and quick roll out of the latest technologies, so that European citizens can fully benefit from a better mobility tomorrow. www.fiaregion1.com
“It would be great to have cars that are just always connected because it would make everything so much easier, safer and greener.” Nico Rosberg, Formula One Driver
“Thanks to my experience in Formula E, I can now considerably reduce the energy consumption in my daily use of an electric car.” Jérôme D’Ambrosio, Formula E Driver
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ABOUT US
FIA Region I is a consumer body representing 111 Motoring and Touring Clubs and their 38 million members from across Europe, the Middle East and Africa. The FIA represents the interests of our members as motorists, riders, pedestrians and passengers. FIA Region I is working to ensure safe, affordable, clean and efficient mobility for all.
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