Strategic Briefing for April 7, 2009 I
Las Vegas
Understand Prepare
Grow
Comprehending the 2009 Construction Marketplace
Rusty Sherwood I Vice President
Strategic Briefing for April 7, 2009 I
Las Vegas
Understand Prepare
Grow
Things aren’t great, but hang in there‌ better days are ahead!
Rusty Sherwood I Vice President
Trends US
& Global
4:3
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
$463B
$131B
– Project Delivery Methods
< 2700 sec
Trends US
& Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
Context – Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor Stimulus – Innovation 09/10 Impact – Materials Trends – Project Delivery Methods Resources
The McGraw-Hill Companies – Essential Information & Insight…
$6.7 Billion in Revenue (2007)… 280 offices in 40 countries. Leader in every market we serve. 5 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill Construction
Market leadership for more than a centuryâ&#x20AC;Ś
Leading provider of construction information Founded over 100 years ago Key industry alliances Over 1,000,000 customers
History Founded by James H. McGraw, Frederick W. Dodge and Clinton Sweet Over 100 Years Ago
Today Serves One Million Customers Within the $4.6 Trillion Global Construction Community, Helping Industry Enterprises Save Time, Money and Energy
Serving the private sector, government and financial communities
6 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
McGraw-Hill Construction Alliances / partnerships
20+ National Alliances
40+ Regional Alliances
Cover Wide Range Business Opportunities
Formation of Construction Industry Association Council (CIAC)
New Association Affinity Program
7 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presentedMcGraw-Hill © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved. Confidential
McGraw-Hill Construction Vision and Mission 140,000
Vision: To transform the Global Construction Industry by setting new standards through connecting people, projects and products Mission: To provide our customers with sales, marketing and workflow solutions that will help them get smarter, get seen & selected, find & manage opportunities, and sell & market smarter
8 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
for Construction Technology Serving Your Business Needs Four Ways… Analyze, Identify and Evaluate Market Conditions and Opportunities
Build Your Company’s Market Presence & Identity
MHC Research & Analysis
MHC Integrated Media: Print, Online, Events
Create / verify Strategic Plans Forecast Current and Potential Opportunity Assess Brand and Market Preferences Confirm Expansion Plans based on Opportunity / Competitor Relationships Analyze Business Impact of Key Trends Interoperability, Green Construction
Reach and Influence Key Decision-Makers Create Awareness and Educate Owners & Contractors Attend & Sponsor Key Industry Events Create Integrated Print, Online, and Events Programs that Reach Target Audiences When and Where they Work
Identify Key Project Opportunities, and Increase Your Company’s Backlog
MHC Network® & Dodge Database Identify & Manage New Project Opportunities Target Key Owners / GCs based on ideal project profiling Target underserved prospects based on competitor behavior Access Custom project Information to meet specific business needs Accelerate sales with
Increase Efficiency of Business Processes, and Build Project and Employee Productivity MHC Network® Express & Performance Tracking Integrate Project Information Into Your CRM /
Business Workflow Create Executive Dashboards: - Actual growth vs. market potential - Specification rates vs. potential
Measure Customer Satisfaction
pre-qualified targeted leads
Strategic Solutions to
Marketing Solutions to
Sales Solutions to
Get Smarter
Get Seen
Find Work
9 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Productivity Solutions to Do Work
Trends US
& Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
Stimulus the big picture
– Project Delivery Methods
10 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Economic Crisis = Opportunity? component of recovery policies – federal and state
Major Key
to job creation
11 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
The U.S. Economic Recession has Deepened Real GDP Growth - Quarterly
Change in Employment Jan.'09
Thousands of Workers
-598,000
400
'08 Q4
Annualized Percent Change
-3.8%
8 6
200
4 2 0 -2
0 -200
Full Yr. 2008 3 million jobs lost
-4 -6
-400 -600
01 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Three Part Recovery Plan Stimulus Bill Financial Rescue Package Housing Rescue Package
09
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
10
GDP Pattern: History 2007
Forecast 2008
+2.0% +1.3%
12 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2009
2010
-2.5%
+2.0-2.5%
Major Negative – Lending Standards Still Tight Survey of Bank Lending Officers
Survey of Bank Lending Officers
Percent Reporting Tighter Lending Standards --
Percent Reporting Tighter Lending Standards --
Commercial and Industrial Loans
90 75
75
60
60
45
45
30
30
15
15
0
0
-15
-15
-30
-30
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Commercial Real Estate Loans
90
06
08
Financial rescue effort from Fall ’08 has not yet had positive impact. Obama Administration’s financial rescue effort – still waiting on details.
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Tight lending continues to impact construction activity. Chicago Spire World Trade Ctr. Towers 2,3
13 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
10
Another Constraint – State & Local Finances Year-end Balance of State Governments
Numerous states facing large budget gaps for Fiscal Year 2009, including -
State & Local Governments
Shortfall $ bil.
Year-End Balance, Percent of Expenditures
12 10 8 6 4
.
2 0 90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
Source: National Association of State Budget Officers
California $35.9 Illinois 8.0 New York 6.4 Florida 5.7 New Jersey 3.7 Massachusetts 3.3 Arizona 2.7 Georgia 2.3 Pennsylvania 2.3 Virginia 2.3 Also – 20 states have implemented cuts to K-12 education, 6 states proposing cuts 28 states have implemented cuts to public colleges and universities. Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
14 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
$787.2 Billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
“
…the most sweeping economic recovery package in U.S. history…
”
President Barack Obama Signed Denver, CO
15 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
How the Construction Industry… benefits from the Stimulus
Will stimulate more construction activity in 2009-2011
Adding 7.6% to bring total construction in 2009 to $463 Billion
Adding 10.6% in 2010 to bring total construction to $509 Billion
16 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Enacted on February 17
Total: $787.2 billion (over 10 years) – $308.3 billion appropriations spending – $211.8 billion tax cuts – $267.0 billion direct federal spending • State fiscal stabilization, unemployment insurance, etc
Construction Spending Share (included in appropriations) – ENR estimate: $131 billion • Note: some line items are for capital programs (equip’t as well as construction, eg, transit, airport baggage screening)
Surprises – Pleasant - $8 billion for high-speed rail corridors – Unpleasant – No line item for school construction
17 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Distributing the stimulus money – States: about $40 billion, including… • Highways: $26.7 billion
• Transit: $7.8 billion • EPA Clean Water SRF: $4 billion
• EPA Drinking Water SRF: $2 billion • State energy offices: $3.1 billion
– Federal Agencies: about $90 billion, including… • DOE: $27 billion (including $11 billion for Smart Grid) • GSA: $5.55 billion (including $4.5 billion for green building upgrades)
– $750 million for courthouses, other federal buildings – $300 million for border stations
• DOD: $6.6 billion (repairs, upgrades, energy improvements, barracks, medical buildings) • VA: $1.25 billion (hospitals and other medical facilities)
18 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Transportation – Highways: $27.5 billion – Transit: $8.4 billion – Rail: $9.3 billion • Includes $1.3 billion for Amtrak; $8 billion for high-speed rail
– Transportation Security Administration: $1 billion to buy, install explosive-detection, airport screening equipment
Environment – – – –
EPA clean water and drinking water SRF’s: $6 billion Corps of Engineers: $4.6 billion DOW environmental cleanup: $6 billion EPA cleanup, including Superfund: $1.2 billion
Energy – Electricity grid: $11 billion; “Smart-Grid” investment: $4.5 billion – Renewable energy loan guarantees: $6 billion – Tax credits for renewable energy projects extended
19
• Wind energy extended through 2012 Biomass and geothermal extended through McGraw-Hill Construction•Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All2013 rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Buildings – GSA federal buildings, energy-efficiency upgrades: $4.5 billion – Construction funding for such agencies as NSF, NIH
– DOD restoration, modernization of facilities: $4.2 billion – Veterans Administration: $1.3 billion for hospital upgrades
– HUD public housing capital fund: $4 billion – HUD redevelopment of abandoned, foreclosed properties: $2 billion
Schools – No specific line item. ($20 billion in House and Senate version) – Renovation funding could come from $39.6 billion in bill’s State Fiscal Stabilization Fund
20 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
Looking ahead… – Federal reports (DOD, VA “expenditure plans) due 30 days after enactment. – GSA “detailed plan by project”, due 45 days after enactment. – Obligation deadlines: • GSA, $5 billion obligated by Sept 30, 2010, other $550 million by Sept 30, 2011. No penalty in the act for missing deadlines • VA construction funds, available until Sept 30, 2010.
• DOD/military construction funds, available until Sept 30, 2010 • DOD operation and maintenance funds (repairs, modernization available for obligation until Sept, 30, 2010.
• Army Corp of Engineers civil work funds, no expiration date for funding • Highways, FHWA apportioned funds to states on March 2 releasing $26.7 billion for projects – States must obligate 50% of funds 120 days from apportionment (about July 1). Obligate next 50% one year after apportionment – Use it or lose it – unobligated money redistributed by US DOT – State agencies file progress reports 90 days, 180 days, one year, two years, three years after enactment 21 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Breaking down the numbers… American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
“Buy American” provisions (section 1605 in the Act) – No stimulus funds can be used for a project “unless all of the iron, steel, and manufactured goods used in the project are produced in the United States. – But there are exceptions… • If a federal agency head finds that the Buy American provision “would be inconsistent with the public interest”, or the US-produced iron, steel, or manufactured goods are not “in sufficient and reasonably available quantities and of a “satisfactory quality”, or they would increase the project cost by more than 25%. • Act also says Buy American section “shall be applied in a manner consistent with the United States obligations under international agreements.”
22 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
U.S. Macroeconomic Picture Two other keys to economic recovery…
Financial Stability Plan Proposed February 10. “A work in progress.”.
Goal: inject as much as $2.5 trillion into banking system Parts: more funding for ailing banks create mechanism for private investors to buy toxic securities expansion of Federal Reserve program to encourage consumer lending
Housing Rescue Plan Proposed February 18. Further details provided on March 4. Total Cost: $275 billion, could help 9 million homeowners
Parts: Remove limit on refinancing for “responsible homeowners. Allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to guarantee refinancing on mortgages valued at more than 80% of homes value. Help renegotiate loan terms for “at-risk homeowners”, create a $75 billion program to subsidize loan modifications Incentives for lender: $1,000 upfront payment for every loan modified. $200 billion to back Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Purchases of stock, to reduce concerns about solvency.) 23 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends US
& Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
Construction Impact
2009 - 2010
– Project Delivery Methods
24 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Total Construction Starts Helped by Stimulus Bill in 2009-2010 Total Construction Starts Including Stimulus Effect (Billions of Dollars) Total Stimulus 800 700 - 14%
600 500
--15% 11%
+10% +10%
2009
2010
400 300 200 100 0
2005
2006
2007
2008
25 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Highway and Bridge Construction Big Winners Under Stimulus Highway and Bridge Construction (Billions of Dollars)
Stimulus +10%
70 +15%
60
-2%
50 40 30 20 10 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
26 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2009
2010
Environmental Public Works Will See Big Boost from Stimulus Environmental Public Works (Billions of Dollars)
Stimulus +10%
50 +2%
40
+8%
30 20 10 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
27 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Other Public Works Will Benefit Significantly from More Transit/Rail Funds Other Public Works, Including Transit/Rail (Billions of Dollars) 35 -9%
30
+4%
Stimulus
+5%
25 20 15 10 5 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
28 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Electric Utilities Will Stay at High Volume with Push from Stimulus Electric Utilities, Including SmartGrid (Billions of Dollars) Stimulus 30
+ 65%
25
- 25%
- 3%
2009
2010
20 15 10 5 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
29 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Public Buildings, While a Small Category, Will Receive Large Stimulus Boost Public Buildings (Billions of Dollars) Stimulus 18 15
+7%
- 1%
2008
2009
- 5%
12 9 6 3 0 2005
2006
2007
30 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Healthcare Facilities Will Get Slight Benefit from Stimulus After a Record 2008 Healthcare Construction Starts (Billions of Dollars)
35
Stimulus
+27% - 14%
30
- 3%
25 20 15 10 5 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
31 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Educational Buildings Will Settle Back, Diminished Prospects for Stimulus Boost Educational Buildings Stimulus
(Billions of Dollars)
+8%
60 50
- 9% - 9%
+5%
40 30 20
10 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
32 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Multifamily Housing Weaker in 2009, Slight Benefit from Stimulus Expected in 2010 Multifamily Housing (Billions of Dollars) Stimulus
80 70
60 50
- 35%
- 31% - 31%
40 30
+18%
20 10 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
33 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Office Construction in Retreat, Slight Stimulus Benefit (via Gov’t. Offices) Office Construction Starts (Billions of Dollars) Stimulus
35
- 6%
30
- 20% - 20%
25
6% -- 6%
20 15 10 5 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
34 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
Store Construction in Sharp Correction, No Expected Benefit from Stimulus Stores and Shopping Centers (Billions of Dollars) 30
25
- 28%
20
- 20%
- 5%
15
- 31%
- 5%
2009
2010
10 5 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
35 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Hotel Construction in Sharp Correction, No Expected Benefit from Stimulus Hotels and Motels (Billions of Dollars) 18 15
- 7%
12
- 27%
9
- 38%
- 12% - 12%
2009
2010
6 3 0 2005
2006
2007
2008
36 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
U.S. Total Construction Starts for 2009-2010 Billions of Dollars
Total Construction Single Family Housing Multifamily Housing Commercial Bldgs. Institutional Bldgs.
Manufacturing Bldgs. Public Works Electric Utilities
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
670.3
689.6
639.2
548.1
463.1
+13%
+3%
-7%
-14%
-15%
+10%
315.5
272.4
201.2
122.4
85.1
115.0
+12%
-14%
-26%
-39%
-30%
+35%
68.6
69.8
61.8
40.0
27.6
37.8
+36%
+2%
-12%
-35%
-31%
+18%
72.2
93.0
100.9
84.1
61.3
58.2
+7%
+29%
+8%
-17%
-27%
-5%
100.1
110.8
117.2
128.3
119.3
121.0
+12%
+11%
+6%
+9%
-7%
10.1
13.5
19.8
27.3
17.8
16.0
+26%
+33%
+47%
+38%
-35%
-10%
96.0
112.4
121.5
118.2
130.5
141.9
+9%
+17%
+8%
-3%
+10%
+9%
7.9
17.7
16.8
27.7
20.7
20.0
+6%
+125%
-5%
+65%
-25%
-3%
37 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2010
509.3
+1%
Points of Perspective – U.S. Construction Total Construction Activity by Cycle Cyclical Trough (T) = 100, Based on Constant 2000 Dollars 190 1991-2009
175 160
1975-1982
145 1982-1991
130 115 100 85
1991- 2005 T
T+2
T+4
T+6
T+8
T+10
T+12
T+14
Years from Cyclical Trough
38 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
T+16
T+18
Trends US
& Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
Trends shaping construction
– Project Delivery Methods
39 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Global Construction
40 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Worldwide: Sharp Declines in 2009 Real GDP Grow th, Annual % Change
China India UAE USA
15.0 13.0
11.6 9.8
10.0
9.3
9.4
7.4 5.0 2.8
9.0 7.3 7.0
2.0
1.1
0.0
6.7
8.0 6.5
5.1
4.5
1.8
1.6
-1.6 -5.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: China, India, USA: International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook Database, January 28, 2009 Update. UAE figures: Oxford Economics, January 19 2009; 41 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Dubai Today: The Bubble has Burst Global
Financial Crisis Has Reached UAE
– Tighter lending standards
– Property values spiraling 30-50% Construction
Grinding to a Halt
– “Wait and See” – Developers citing significant profit losses – Layoffs due to cancelled or halted projects
– Expats fleeing Abu
Dhabi & Rest of Region Holding Steady
42 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
India Market: Mixed Bag Declines
in private funding & foreign investment
– Drops in economic growth – Residential, hospitality and retail particularly hard hit – Increase in risk aversion Indian
Financial Institutions Hold Steady
– Historically conservative lending has kept banks afloat – No major changes until new administration in late 2009 Construction
Opportunities Persist
– Consistent demand for infrastructure projects (power, transport)
– Rebound expected in SEZs, hospitality and education projects
43 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
China: Construction Opportunities Persist Export-Driven
Economy Hit Hard by Global Crisis
– Manufacturing sector declining due to slowed global trade – 4,000 factories closed in 2008, 20 million jobless migrant workers – Falling property prices Government
Action Expected to Buoy Market
– $586bn stimulus package announced – Interest Rate cuts
– Significant Investment in Infrastructure Projects – Urbanization Leading to growing Consumer class; Retail sales up 21% in 2008 44 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Green is a Silver Lining in the Down Economy
45 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Worldwide Market Growth Percentage of Firms Largely Dedicated to Green (on over 60% of projects) from 2008-2013 100% = 2008 = 2013
80%
73% 60%
56%
Doubling
40%
36% 29%
20% 0% Total
Europe
North America
South Australia/New Asia America Zealand
Middle East/North Africa
46 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
SubSaharan Africa
In the U.S.: Increasing Market Opportunity 140
Upper Market Size Lower Market Size
120
Market Size $ (billions)
100
Triple 80
60
40
Double Triple
Five Fold
20
0
Total
Non-Res Residential
2005
Total
Non-Res Residential
Total
2008
47 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Non-Res Residential
2013
Green Wins in Stimulus: Renovation Gets a Boost in Green Much
of Public Building $$ to Green Renovation Projects – GSA $4.5 billion – DOD $4.2 billion – VA $1 billion
Tax
breaks for Residential Energy Efficiency expanded & extended
48 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Green Wins in Stimulus: Big Focus on Renewable Energy Investment
in Renewable Energy & Conservation – "Smart-Grid" activities $11B
– Energy efficiency grants $6.3B – Renewable energy loan guarantees $6B Incentives:
Manufacture of Green Energy Products
49 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Perceived Advantages of Building Green from AEC firms and Owners
2005
2008
Decreased Operating Costs:
8-9%
13.6%
Increased Building Values:
7.5%
10.9%
Improvement in ROI:
6.6%
9.9%
Increased Occupancy:
3.5%
6.4%
Rent Rise:
3.0%
6.1%
Increased revenue flows:
71%
77%
Increased profits:
59%
61%
Advantages are Increasing Over Time! 50 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Market is Growing Despite Declining New Building Construction = Commercial & Institutional Market
$245 Billion
= Green Market
$29 Billion $182 Billion $208 Billion
$3 Billion 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Commercial & Institutional Market Size: McGraw-Hill Construction, as of January 27, 2009. MHC Housing Starts data is similar to the Census Bureau, except that MHC defines single family housing as detached housing only. MHC includes townhomes in its multifamily data. Green Market Size: Commercial & Institutional Green Building: Green Trends Driving Market Change, McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008 51 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Residential Green: Upward Growth as Total Home Market Falls = Residential Market
= Green Market
$384 Billion
$20 Billion
$133 Billion
$7 Billion
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Source: Residential Market Size: McGraw-Hill Construction, as of January 16, 2009. MHC Housing Starts data is similar to the Census Bureau, except that MHC defines single family housing as detached housing only. MHC includes townhomes in its multifamily data. Green Home Market Size: Green Outlook 2009: Trends Driving Change, McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008 52 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Rapid Growth of LEED in Specs
53 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Labor Force: Increases from Stimulus, especially Green Jobs Stimulus
Bill Labor Specifics
– $3.95 billion training and employment services – $500 million for job training in energy efficiency (out of above $$)
– $250 million toward creation of Job Corps Centers Stimulus
Package Funding Creating Opportunities for Green Jobs
– Federal Facilities Retrofit: Energy Efficiency
– Renewable Energy: SmartGrid Investment Green Jobs
54 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Other Industry Trends – Interoperability/BIM – Climate Change – New Materials Trends – Prefabrication & Modularization – PPP – Stimulus Influence on Products/Trades
55 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Interoperability: Eliminating Waste & Increasing Productivity Traditional Information Exchange
Interoperable Exchange Architect
Architect
Civil Engineer
Structural Engineer
Building Owner
HVAC Engineer
Facilities Manager
City Constr. Manager
Civil Engineer
Building Owner
Structural Engineer
Building Information Model (BIM)
Facilities Manager
Source: International Alliance for Interoperability, 2007 56 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
HVAC Engineer
City Constr. Manager
Making the Case: Shift to Digital Design
Effort
Digital Design shifts the bulk of project work to the Design phase to help coordinate building systems and the project and manage project costs
Traditional Design
Digital Design
Litigation Phase
Design
Design Devel
Const Docs
Time
Construction Source: International Alliance for Interoperability, 2007
57 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Adoption of BIM Increasing Over 2009 Expected % of Total Projects 2009 18%
% of Total Projects 2008 35%
38%
45% 20% 10%
17%
Architects
1-15% 16-30% 31-59% >60%
17%
Engineers
Contractors
Owners
23% 43%
54%
35%
38%
43%
41%
46%
12%
60%+
8% 20%
11% 21% 14%
32%
2009
8% 10%
20%
31-59% 11%
21%
2008
2009
16-30%
35% 45%
36%
12%
2008
15%
10%
22% 12%
16%
41%
33%
12%
2008
2009
2008
58 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented Š McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
2009
1-15%
Measuring BIM ROI: Factors Considered Top
4 most important factors:
– Improved project outcomes – Better communication through 3-D visualization
– Positive impact of winning projects – Higher productivity of personnel
59 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Climate Change Transforming Construction Increased Rising
frequency of natural disasters
water level
*************** Increase in tracking carbon footprints – Emergence of carbon credit exchanges (Chicago, Northeast, West) – EPA programs like Climate Leaders
– Tracking and reporting footprint in GreenSource case studies
USGBC’s LEED 2009: Emphasizing credits impacting climate change
60 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
New Materials: Smarter, Greener Creating
New Materials through Science: –Nanotechnology –Biomimetics –Radio frequency identification (RFID)
Source: International Alliance for Interoperability, 2007 61 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Materials Example: HOK Embraces Biomimcry
HOK has partnered with the Biomimicry Guild to enhance sustainable design.
Designed “skin cells” for buildings, which absorb sunlight, water and CO2 to produce oxygen and collect water.
New project in India – mimics root structures of indigenous trees and plants to help anchor houses along steep mountain slope.
62 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Prefabrication & Modularization Market demand and activity growing New
study: Use of prefabricated materials in the UK to surpass $1.4 billion by 2010.
Moving
beyond the residential market
Examples
SG Blocks – Code-engineered cargo shipping containers and site-ready modularized blocks – New Applications: “Home in a Box” & Hurricane-resistant temporary structures
– Reuse = Sustainability
Dubai’s DaVinci Tower – World’s first prefabricated skyscraper – 90% built as modules in a factory
– Minimize on-site labor costs, risk & time 63 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
PPP Coming to the Forefront PPPs
Will Be Different Today: More Government Involvement
2009
New Transportation Bill Will Be Important for PPPs as SAFETEA-LU Expires
Proposed
Federal Infrastructure Bank Could Expand PPPs
Tentative Insights from Ongoing MHC Survey of Government Decision-Makers – 40% expect PPP work in next 3 years – A third have high opinion of PPPs – Most important financial aspects: guarantees and default provisions – Congestion has the highest priority in decision to use a PPP – Lack of funding the primary reason to use a PPP – Biggest concern with PPP: unacceptable private profits
64 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends US
& Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
So what Implications to consider
– Project Delivery Methods
65 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Implications
Assume pending or proposed projects are NOT safe if financed through conventional construction financing – What’s the “real” health of our opportunity pipeline?
Stay close to existing clients & keep an eye on fiscal health of key trade and supply partners – How can we serve our existing client-base better?
– How can we help our clients better connect with their key partners?
Expect “Green” to become de facto market expectation, particularly for public works, institutional and office – Green construction and digital design & construction are interconnected trends – Does our technology aid in sustainable design and construction and visa versa? Does our brand / market position communicate this?
66 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Implications
Infrastructure, Education, Healthcare, Alternative Energy & Transmission are all good bets over the long term… – Do we have access to the firms involved? – Does our technology address their specific needs?
Alternative delivery ie: IPD becomes increasingly attractive as owners look for greater efficiencies and risk sharing – BIM is one of many critical enablers in emergence of IPD/other project management efficiencies. How do we support these emerging delivery methods?
– Can we quantify our technology’s impact on waste elimination, greater productivity, greater transparency?
67 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Implications
Alternative financing like PPP has renewed appeal as state /local govt’s balance infrastructure needs and budget shortfalls – Do we play a role in facilitating, adding transparency to public private partnered projects?
It’s a great time to recruit future users – Are we educating today, tomorrow’s digital construction influencers / users?
Use of prefabrication and modularization will accelerate – Owner expectations driving job productivity improvements, reduced waste and better cost management – Companies in favorable cash position are investing in innovation to secure profitable competitive advantage – How does our technology enhance / accelerate this emerging productivity trend?
68 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends US
& Global
– Sustainability/Green Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
Resources educate your team / grow your business
– Project Delivery Methods
69 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Insight considerations… Resources to educate your team and customers
• Free access to breaking news on ENR.com • 140,000 unique visitors • 1.2MM page views 70 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Insight considerations… Resources to educate your team and customers
Free access to news & analysis http://construction.com
http://construction.com/stimulus/
71 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Insight considerations… Resources to educate your team and customers
Market Dynamics E-Newsletter
Free access to latest analysis and forecasts from MHC Analytics group
Distributed monthly to 20,000 industry professionals
Sign-up available at construction.com under Market Research tab (http://www.construction.com/ market_research/)
Sign up by email to construction_intelligence@mc graw-hill.com
72 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Business development considerations… McGraw-Hill Construction Network Making it work for you… Finding Stimulus Construction
Easy access to stimulus projects via key word search
Stimulus opportunity attributes… – “Shovel Ready” – projects in consideration for ARRA financial support
– “ARRA Stimulus” – projects verified to receive ARRA funding
73 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Business development considerations… McGraw-Hill Construction Network Present Opportunities on Stimulus Construction
Shovel Ready – Proposed
– 11,094 projects
– $94.3B
ARRA Stimulus – Funded!!
– 949 projects – 626 Hwy
– 53 Transit – 21 Utilities
– $5.3B
74 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Growing daily!!
serving business needs four ways. Leading provider of construction information over 100 Founded Get Smarter
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MHC Integrated Media: Print, Online, Events
MHC Network® & Dodge Database
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75 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.
Trends & Global “Luck favors the prepared mind.”
US
Louis Pasteur – Sustainability/Green- Building
– Interoperability and BIM – Workforce/Labor
– Innovation – Materials
Thank you!
– Project Delivery Questions Methodsor comments?? norbert_young@mcgraw-hill.com
mark_sherwood@mcgraw-hill.com
76 McGraw-Hill Construction Confidential. All information presented © McGraw-Hill Construction, 2008. All rights reserved.