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Looking forward to the future
Reformulating (11%), increasing use of domestic suppliers (10%) and stockpiling (9%) were also additional methods. Despite far-reaching efforts to protect food businesses, our respondents are unsure whether supply chain challenges have made their businesses stronger and more resilient.
This is also reflected in the uncertain business outlook many have for the future, with over a third (36%) of our respondents disagreeing that supply chain disruptions to their business will improve in the next 12 months. Another third (32%) say it will improve and (32%) are unsure, neither agreeing or disagreeing.
At the time of writing this report, the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) food price index, which measures the international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, “fell for the fifth consecutive month”.6 This, coupled with a UN-backed deal in July to re-open Ukrainian ports, has resulted in more supplies reaching international markets.
However, Erin Collier of the UN's Food and Agricultural Organization said the situation remains “very tentative”7 and despite the opening of ports, volumes will need to increase to help bring prices down. Looking ahead, farming challenges and export logistics may intensify next year and beyond. Logistical issues have caused between 18 to 22 million fewer metric tons of grain being exported from Ukraine and Russia.8 Mykola Solsky, Ukraine's agriculture minister, predicts forthcoming harvests will be affected by the war, but exports will continue to increase.
In other parts of the world, trade restrictions put in place may help in the short-term. The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) food restriction tracker, initially set up to analyse food restrictions during the Covid-19 pandemic, shows almost 20 countries have “resorted to restrictive trade policies to address current food supply disruptions”.9 However, swift action, collaboration and careful long-term planning between governments and major players could mitigate risks in the future and manage inevitable supplydemand shocks that the food system will face.
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