Department of Earth Sciences
CENTRE OF COMPETENCE OF THE CIVIL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
Failure forecasting Monte Beni
Montebeni (Italy) April 19th 2002
Perimetral crack
MASSIVE BASALTS THRUST SURFACE WITH LAMINATED CHERTS
BASALT BRECCIAS
VEGETATED SLOPE DEPOSITS
DISTURBED BRECCIAS LIMESTONES
debris cone
debris cone
debris cone
Basalt Basalt breccias Tectonically disturbed breccias Thrust fault Bedded limestones talus
Caothic clay shales
bedding
Monitoring with distometers
Target visibility LiSA can operate in any condition of visibility (eg. during night, rainstorms and fog)
LISA Applications: Monte Beni landslide 08/05/2002 18:12 09/05/2002 10/05/2002 11/05/2002 12/05/2002 13/05/2002 13:59 17:10 20.28 23:37 00:07 04:00 06:35 08:40 14:05 16:50 19:20 23:55 03:10 05:50 09:45 11:52 13:50 16:45 19:00 21:20 23:42 02:45 06:00 08:30 11:20 14:30 17:35 20:10 22:40 02:15 05:46 08:55 12:40 15:40
Start: 8/5/2002 13:59 End: 13/5/2002 18:12 Interval: 124 h Acquisition time: 40 min Peak velocity: 0.48 mm/h LOS DISPLACEMENT (mm)
Mean Velocity: 0.16 mm/h
point 3 DISPLACEMENT (mm)
point 2
point 4
point 1
cumulated displacement (mm)
m
point 1: displacement = 57 mm velocity = 11 mm/day
cumulated displacement (mm)
Displacement histories point 2: displacement = 37 mm velocity = 7 mm/day
point 5 elapsed time (min)
elapsed time (min)
elapsed time (min)
point 4: displacement = 22 mm velocity = 4 mm/day
elapsed time (min)
cumulated displacement (mm)
point 3: displacement = 25 mm velocity = 5 mm/day
cumulated displacement (mm)
cumulated displacement (mm)
m
point 5: displacement = 13 mm velocity = 3 mm/day
elapsed time (min)
November 2002: early warning system Traffic light 1
Traffic light 2
Network of wire extensometers, bar extensometers and clinometers Displacement thresholds which activate two traffic lights
Early December: failure of sensors area 1
area3
400
430 380
300
DR1 DR2 EF1 FA1 FA2 AL1 TA1
250 200 150 100 50
mm, cm per AL, 째c
mm (cm per AL), 째c
350
330
DR5 FA4 FA5 FA6 EF4 TA2 DR6
280 230 180 130 80 30
0
-20 27/11/02 29/11/02 12.00 12.00
-50 30/11/02 0.00 2/12/02 0.00 4/12/02 0.00 6/12/02 0.00 8/12/02 0.00 10/12/02 0.00 12/12/02 0.00 14/12/02 0.00 16/12/02 0.00 18/12/02 0.00 20/12/02 0.00
data
1/12/02 12.00
3/12/02 12.00
5/12/02 12.00
7/12/02 12.00
9/12/02 11/12/02 13/12/02 15/12/02 17/12/02 19/12/02 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00
data
area2
area4
340.00 90
DR3 DR4
240.00
EF2 EF3
190.00
FA3
140.00
AL3 AL2
90.00
TA2 40.00 -10.00 30/11/02 0.00
70
EF5 EF6 EF7 TA 4
50
mm, 째c
mm, cm per AL, 째c
290.00
30 10 -10 -30
2/12/02 0.00
4/12/02 0.00
6/12/02 0.00
8/12/02 0.00
10/12/02 12/12/02 14/12/02 16/12/02 18/12/02 20/12/02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
data
-50 27/11/02 12.00
28/11/02 12.00
29/11/02 12.00
30/11/02 12.00
1/12/02 12.00
2/12/02 12.00
3/12/02 12.00
data
4/12/02 12.00
5/12/02 12.00
6/12/02 12.00
7/12/02 12.00
8/12/02 12.00
Monitoring time series 3000 delta 1-2
delta 3-2
delta 12-8
delta a'-b'
delta 34-35'
delta 36-37
delta 45-47
Cumulated displacement (mm)
collapse 2500
2000
InSAR monitoring
Extensometer monitoring
1500
1000
500
0 4/4
24/4
14/5
3/6
23/6
13/7
2/8
22/8
11/9
1/10
21/10 10/11 30/11 20/12
Apollonius of Perga (Perga, 262 a.C. – Murtina, 190 a.C.)
The Conics
The hyperbolas
Saito (1965)
1/velocity
• Method to predict failure based on creep rupture • Linear relationship between inverse velocity and time during periods of acceleration to failure (i.e. hyperbolic acceleration)
Time of failure
0 Time
Inverse velocity method Fukuzono (1985)
Impossibile visualizzare l'immagine. La memoria del computer potrebbe essere insufficiente per aprire l'immagine oppure l'immagine potrebbe essere danneggiata. Riavviare il computer e aprire di nuovo il file. Se viene visualizzata di nuovo la x rossa, potrebbe essere necessario eliminare l'immagine e inserirla di nuovo.
α
1 − 1 f
1 − 1
1 α α () [ ] v = ∞ ⇒ = A − 1 ( t − t ) f v i
if α = 2 then: 1/v = A(tf-t)
Inverse velocity method 1.0000 1/v1-2
1/v3-2
1/v12-8
1/va'-b'
1/v34-35'
1/v36-37
1/v45-47
0.9000 0.8000
1/v (giorno/mm)
0.7000 0.6000
collapse Â
0.5000 0.4000 0.3000 0.2000 0.1000 0.0000 1/9
9/9
17/9
25/9
3/10
11/10
19/10
27/10
4/11
12/11
20/11
28/11
6/12
14/12
22/12
30/12
7/1
Inverse velocity method 1.8000
Benchmarks 1-2
1.6000
1.4000
1/v (giorno/mm)
1.2000
failure 1.0000
0.8000
0.6000
0.4000
0.2000
0.0000 13/7
23/7
2/8
12/8
22/8
1/9
11/9
21/9
1/10
11/10
21/10
31/10
10/11
20/11
30/11
10/12
20/12
30/12
Azimi graphical method 19-gen
Benchmarks 12-8 30-dic
10-dic
20-nov
31-ott
11-ott
21-set
01-set 01-set
11-set
21-set
01-ott
11-ott
21-ott
31-ott
10-nov
20-nov
30-nov
10-dic
20-dic
30-dic
09-gen
Dispatches to civil protection authorities • The landslide, until now sensitive to rainfall, is now increasing its rate of displacement independently from precipitation (letter of Prof. Canuti to the Mayor of Firenzuola, November 26th, 2002) • The main landslide is on the point of collapsing. It is necessary that the evacuation measures will be strictly respected during Christmas holidays (letter of Prof. Canuti to the Mayor of Firenzuola, December 23rd, 2002) • The main landslide will collapse within the first days of January 2003 (report of Prof. Canuti to the Civil Protection Commission, December 27th, 2002)
Risk scenario
Perimetral crack
Regional road
Landslide volume: 500 000 m3 Angle of friction: 34째 Graphical elaboration: Conefall (www.quanterra.org)
December 14th 2002
Rock fall of 20 000 m3
December 15th 2002
Intitiation of the major collapse
December 28th 2002
Collapse of 500 000 m3 of rock
Today
Department of Earth Sciences
CENTRE OF COMPETENCE OF THE CIVIL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
Early Warning Stromboli
Stromboli volcano
~1 major explosion per year
~400 minor explosion per day
2-4 km
100-200 m
Slope instability ~20-40 years
Lava effusion ~10 years
Tsunami ~20-40 years
Sector collapse and megatsunami ~2000 years
photo INGV
Landslides on 30 December 2002
Photo INGV Catania (2003) Courtesy of Sonia Calvari
Ash cloud and tsunami
Integrated monitoring network Thermal infrared
Ground deformation (tiltmeters)
Meteo
Infrasound acoustics
Ground deformation (InSAR da terra)
Broadband seismology
Broadband ondameters
Ground deformation (Laser 3D)
Data collection centre
Heliplatform Optical cable
Wirless
Heli-platform
connection
Radar installation
Installation of the system
Measurement parameters • Frequency range: 17.0 – 17.10 GHz • Frequency points : 1601 • Polarization: VV • transmitted power: 300 mW (25 dBm)
• Synthetic Aperture: 3.0 m • Step: 5 mm • Azimuth points : 601 • Time range: 12 min • Image number: ca. 120 per day
• distance: 650 m • Spatial Resolution: 1.0 m x ca. 1.5 m • Accuracy: < 0.5 mm
Target area (2007)
Interferometry Image 1 Interferogram (phase difference)
3
Image 2
1
2
1: Flank of Sciara del Fuoco (stable) 2 and 3: Sciara del Fuoco slope 4 and 5: crater
LOS displacement (mm)
4
phase wrapping
5
12 min interferogram
1 hrs interferogram
12 hrs interferogram
48 hrs interferogram
2007 eruption
27th February: lava effusion from the crater
27th February: vent opening 400 m a.s.l.
Main debris avalanche on the SdF
8-9 March: lava effusion from new vent
9 March effusion
27 Feb. effusion and landslides
SdF 2007
15 March explosion
27 Feb. effusion and landslides
Crater 2007
27 Feb. 2007 Eruption Sequence of 11’ ITF Interval: 14h 41’ Start: 00.11 GMT 2007/02/27 End: 14.52 GMT 2007/02/27
ERUPTION AND LANDSLIDES
Inverse velocity plot – 27 February
05.53 GMT
27 Feb. 2007 Power images Morphological modifications of the crater and of the upper Sciara del Fuoco Interval: 15h 12â&#x20AC;&#x2122;
21.05 GMT
Upper: 05.53 GMT 2007/02/27 Lower: 21.05 GMT 2007/02/27
8-9 March 2007: Opening of new vent
Time interval of 11 minutes (11.17-11.28 UT 9 March 2007)
velocity greater than 300 mm/h
0,002
09/03/2007 15.07
0,003
09/03/2007 14.24
0,004
09/03/2007 13.40
09/03/2007 12.57
09/03/2007 12.14
09/03/2007 11.31
09/03/2007 10.48
09/03/2007 10.04
09/03/2007 09.21
09/03/2007 08.38
09/03/2007 07.55
09/03/2007 07.12
inverse of velocity 1/(mm/h)
Inverse velocity plot 9 March 0,01
0,009
0,008
0,007
0,006
0,005
vent opening and landslides
0,001
0
Crater
Velocity in log scale (mm/h)
Sciara del Fuoco CONCLUSIONI
Velocity in log scale (mm/h)
Explosion of 7 september 2008 TERRA SAR-X satellite 04/09/2008 - 15/09/2008 sin-event
Descending Inc. angle= 43
09/09/2008 - 20/09/2008 post-event
Descending Inc. angle= 28
15/09/2008 - 26/09/2008 post-event
Descending Inc. angle= 43
1 fringe reprents a displacement of 位/2 = 15,5 mm
Department of Earth Sciences
CENTRE OF COMPETENCE OF THE CIVIL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNCIL OF MINISTERS
Emergency Management Santa Trada
Example #4: A3 Motorway: Scilla
Scilla
Location
Landslide on the Motorway
Regional Landslide Map (PAI)
National Landslide Map (IFFI)
PS ERS (1992-2001)
PS ENVISAT (2002-2007)
02 February 2009
GB-InSAR Risoluzione teorica:
range
0.05 m
azimut (100 m)
0.45 m
azimut (400 m)
1.74 m
GB-InSAR monitoring
Chronology • 30 January 2009: Landslide triggering. 8.00 p.m. request from Civil Protection • 31 January 2009: Installation. 3:00 p.m. testing • 01 January 2009: Start of monitoring • 05 February 2009: Shallow landslide • 07 February 2009: Start of remote monitoring • 12 February 2009: web application for real time monitoring (15’)
Cumulated displacements
Cumulated displacement â&#x20AC;&#x201C; saturated scale
1-Week comparison Cumulated displacement
Cumulated displacement
tra le ore 00.02 del 03/02/2003 e le 00.02 del 08/02/2009
tra le ore 00.02 del 08/02/2003 e le 00.05 del 13/02/2009
Intervallo temporale: 5g 0h 0min
Intervallo temporale: 5g 0h 3min
Landslide deformation
Landslide of 4 February 2009
Landslide of 4 February 2009
Cumulated displacement
Serie storiche spostamenti punti P1 - P6 500
Spostamentiu lungo il LOS [mm]
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
-2500 02/02/2009
04/02/2009
06/02/2009 P1
08/02/2009 P2
P3
P4
10/02/2009 P5
P6
12/02/2009
14/02/2009
Velocity
Serie storiche velocità punto P1
Serie storiche velocità punto P2 2
0
0
-2
-2
-4
-4
-4
-6 -8 -10
Velocità [mm/h]
0 -2
-6 -8 -10
-6 -8 -10
-12
-12
-12
-14
-14
-14
-16
-16
-16
-18 02/02/2009
04/02/2009
06/02/2009
08/02/2009
10/02/2009
12/02/2009
-18 02/02/2009
14/02/2009
04/02/2009
Serie storiche velocità punto P4
06/02/2009
08/02/2009
10/02/2009
12/02/2009
-18 02/02/2009
14/02/2009
-4
-4
-4
-8
Velocità [mm/h]
0 -2
Velocità [mm/h]
0 -2
-10
-6 -8 -10
-12
-14
-14
-16
-16
-16
08/02/2009
10/02/2009
12/02/2009
14/02/2009
14/02/2009
12/02/2009
14/02/2009
-8
-12
06/02/2009
12/02/2009
-10
-14
04/02/2009
10/02/2009
-6
-12
-18 02/02/2009
08/02/2009
2
0
-6
06/02/2009
Serie storiche velocità punto P6
2
-2
-18 02/02/2009
04/02/2009
Serie storiche velocità punto P5
2
Velocità [mm/h]
Serie storiche velocità punto P3
2
Velocità [mm/h]
Velocità [mm/h]
2
04/02/2009
06/02/2009
08/02/2009
10/02/2009
12/02/2009
14/02/2009
-18 02/02/2009
04/02/2009
06/02/2009
08/02/2009
10/02/2009
Conclusions Integrated use of different remote sensing techniques (active/passive, satellite/ground-based sensors) Applicability of remote sensing techniques to mass movement hazard prevention: – Inventory and motion survey – Monitoring and interpretation – Rapid mapping – Instant mapping – Failure forecasting – Early-warning – Emergency management
Current limitations associated to SAR satellites prevent further developments for application at regional scale